Economic Overview - Nanjing's economy has shown stable growth in the first four months of 2025, building on a strong start in the first quarter [1] - Key economic indicators reflect the city's commitment to economic development and project promotion [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial added value in Nanjing increased by 6.2% year-on-year from January to April, improving by 0.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year and by 3.0 percentage points compared to the entire previous year [1] - Manufacturing added value grew by 6.8%, with the automotive manufacturing sector experiencing a significant increase of 29.3% year-on-year due to the export of new energy vehicles [1] - The electrical machinery and pharmaceutical industries also saw substantial growth, with increases of 19.8% and 15.9% respectively, driven by new lithium battery models and mass production of new drugs [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Nanjing decreased by 5.9% year-on-year in the first four months, but the decline was narrowed by 1.3 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - Manufacturing investment rose by 10.1%, contributing 36.2% to the overall investment growth [1] - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 18.2% year-on-year, while high-tech industry investment grew by 13.2%, with high-tech manufacturing investment surging by 26.9% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of social consumer goods in Nanjing reached 294.46 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, which is an increase of 2.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year and 1.6 percentage points compared to the previous year [2] - The "old-for-new" policy has boosted retail sales in various categories, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment, cultural and office supplies, communication equipment, and automotive goods seeing year-on-year growth of 15.9%, 38.1%, 37.8%, and 10.3% respectively [2] Price Trends - Consumer prices in Nanjing decreased by 0.4% year-on-year in the first four months, with specific categories such as clothing, education, culture, entertainment, and healthcare seeing slight increases [2] - The industrial producer price index fell by 1.9% year-on-year, while the purchasing price index for industrial producers decreased by 2.5% [2]

Economic Overview - Zhuhai's economy showed overall stability from January to April, with industrial, consumption, import-export, and fiscal indicators experiencing steady growth, while investment indicators saw a significant decline [1] Industrial Production - From January to April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in Zhuhai increased by 6.6% year-on-year, with the "4+3" pillar industries growing by 6.9% [1] - Specific sectors such as new energy (8.2%), integrated circuits (2.1%), new generation information technology (12.7%), smart home appliances (1.1%), fine chemicals (9.0%), and high-end equipment manufacturing (42.2%) reported varied growth rates [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Zhuhai saw a significant year-on-year decline of 41.2% from January to April, with industrial technological transformation investment down by 1.2%, real estate development investment down by 39.2%, and infrastructure investment down by 42.8% [1] Consumption Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Zhuhai reached 31.26 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [1] - Within consumption types, catering revenue for above-designated size enterprises decreased by 0.3%, while retail sales of goods increased by 12.0% [1] Foreign Trade - Zhuhai's foreign trade import-export total reached 111.72 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.2% [1] - Exports totaled 75.77 billion yuan, growing by 12.3%, while imports amounted to 35.94 billion yuan, increasing by 25.4% [1] Service Industry - From January to March, the revenue of large-scale service enterprises in Zhuhai reached 40.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.5% [2] - Key growth sectors included information transmission, software, and IT services (22.1%), leasing and business services (11.2%), and water, environment, and public facilities management (13.0%) [2] Fiscal and Financial Performance - From January to April, Zhuhai's general public budget revenue was 16.68 billion yuan, up by 3.9% year-on-year, while public budget expenditure was 20.47 billion yuan, increasing by 1.0% [2] - By the end of April, the balance of deposits and loans in Zhuhai's financial institutions grew by 5.9% and 3.5% year-on-year, respectively [2]

Economic Growth - Chengdu's industrial added value for the first four months of the year increased by 8.1% year-on-year, with collective enterprises growing by 24.9% and joint-stock enterprises by 6.0% [1] - Among 37 major industries, 25 reported growth, with the automotive manufacturing sector growing by 27.4%, computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing by 18.8%, and electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing by 11.8% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Chengdu (excluding rural households) rose by 7.9% year-on-year, with private investment increasing by 10.6% [1] - Investment in the primary industry grew by 16.6%, while the secondary industry saw a significant increase of 72.8%, with industrial investment specifically rising by 74.2% [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Chengdu reached 364.46 billion yuan, marking a 6.1% year-on-year increase [1] - Urban retail sales amounted to 320.46 billion yuan, growing by 6.1%, while rural retail sales reached 44 billion yuan, with a growth of 6.4% [1] Consumption Breakdown - Restaurant revenue was 44.93 billion yuan, up by 4.5%, while commodity retail sales were 319.53 billion yuan, increasing by 6.4% [2] - Notable growth in retail categories included telecommunications equipment at 125.0%, gold and silver jewelry at 19.7%, and home appliances and audio-visual equipment at 19.1% [2] Foreign Trade - Chengdu's total foreign trade import and export volume reached 275.98 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.2% year-on-year increase [2] - Exports totaled 161.08 billion yuan, growing by 11.9%, while imports were 114.9 billion yuan, increasing by 10.1% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy in April maintained resilience, with industrial production and exports better than market expectations, while fixed - asset investment and consumption were slightly below expectations [1][3] - After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, there was a "rush to ship" in US - bound shipping, and after the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut in May, it is unlikely to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate again in the short - to - medium term [3] - The 90 - day window period reached in the Sino - US economic and trade talks brought a short - term respite to the market, but long - term uncertainties remain [3] - The prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate horizontally on Thursday, and the short - term of treasury bond futures may continue to fluctuate [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated slightly downward in the morning session, and showed horizontal fluctuations in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2509 fell 0.04%, the 10 - year T2509 rose 0.01%, the 5 - year TF2509 remained flat, and the 2 - year TS2509 remained flat [1] Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 154.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 64.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 90 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the short - term interest rates in the inter - bank money market declined slightly compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 for the whole day was 1.48% (1.51% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 for the whole day was 1.57% (unchanged from the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds rose 0.26 BP to 1.48%, the 5 - year rose 0.02 BP to 1.56%, the 10 - year rose 0.86 BP to 1.72%, and the 30 - year rose 0.20 BP to 1.89% [1] - Eurozone: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.4 (expected 49.3, previous value 49.0); the preliminary value of the service PMI in May was 48.9, the lowest level since January 2024 (expected 50.3, previous value 50.1) [1] - US: On May 22, it was announced that the preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.1, previous value 50.2), and the preliminary value of the US S&P Global service PMI in May was 52.3 (expected 50.8, previous value 50.8) [1] Market Logic - From January to April, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 4.0% year - on - year (market expectation 4.3%, 4.2% from January to March). In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.1% year - on - year (market expectation 5.5%, 5.9% in March). In April, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year in real terms (market expectation 5.2%, 6.5% year - on - year in the first quarter) [1] - In April, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.1% year - on - year (market forecast 2.0%, 12.4% in March). In April, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% (11.55% in March), and exports to the US decreased by 21.03% year - on - year (9.09% in March). Due to the impact of tariffs, China's exports to the US decreased significantly in April, while exports to ASEAN accelerated, possibly due to re - export factors [1] Trading Strategy - For trading - oriented investments, conduct band operations. [3]

Core Insights - Chengdu's industrial added value for the first four months of 2025 increased by 8.1% year-on-year [1] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in Chengdu grew by 7.9% year-on-year, with private investment rising by 10.6% [1] - The total foreign trade import and export volume reached 275.98 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.2% [1] - Exports totaled 161.08 billion yuan, marking an increase of 11.9%, while imports amounted to 114.9 billion yuan, up by 10.1% [1]

| | | 技术面，成交缩量，关注22000支撑，预计锌价区间震荡为主。操作上，建议暂时观望，或区间操作。 免责声明 沪锌产业日报 2025-05-21 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22580 | 145 06-07月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | 170 | -45 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 2724.5 | 48 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 226378 | 2483 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | -4240 | 1723 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 1400 | -126 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 46351 | -751 LME库存(日,吨) | 156725 | -4075 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22760 | 150 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22900 | 490 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/ ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report anticipates that the tin price will fluctuate within a range and move upward. It suggests a short - term bullish trading strategy within the range of 263,000 - 271,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai tin futures main contract is 267,730 yuan/ton, up 2,970 yuan; the 6 - 7 month contract closing price is - 50 yuan, down 30 yuan - The LME 3 - month tin price is 32,960 dollars/ton, up 61 dollars - The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 29,203 lots, up 3,392 lots - The net position of the top 20 futures is 465 lots, up 649 lots - The LME tin total inventory is 2,655 tons, down 85 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 8,417 tons, down 302 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant is 8,070 tons, up 45 tons [3] 3.2. Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 268,400 yuan/ton, up 3,300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 268,640 yuan/ton, up 3,760 yuan - The Shanghai tin main contract basis is 670 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 35.15 dollars/ton, up 20.85 dollars [3] 3.3. Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.21 million tons, down 0.29 million tons - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 246,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 250,300 yuan/ton, down 31,200 yuan - The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate is 7,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4. Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 3,762.32 tons, up 143.24 tons [3] 3.5. Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 174,350 yuan/ton, up 2,150 yuan - The cumulative output of tinplate (strip) is 1.6014 million tons, up 144,500 tons; the export volume of tinplate is 140,700 tons, down 33,900 tons [3] 3.6. Industry News - From January to April this year, the National Development and Reform Commission approved and approved 27 fixed - asset investment projects with a total investment of 573.7 billion yuan. From January to May 5, the sales of automobiles, home appliances, and digital products were about 830 billion yuan. China will revise and expand the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraged for Foreign Investment" and formulate policies to encourage foreign - funded enterprises to reinvest in China - Most policies to stabilize employment and the economy will be implemented by the end of June, and policy pre - research and reserve will be carried out regularly - Internationally, the Fed will treat Moody's downgrade of the US rating as general data, and there are concerns about rising inflation pressure. Domestically, on May 20, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, both down 10 basis points [3] 3.7. Fundamental Analysis - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, and the Bisie mine in Congo plans to resume production in stages, with supply expected to be released in late June - Yunnan faces raw material pressure, and Jiangxi is still restricted by scrap supply. The combined operating rate of local refined tin smelting enterprises is 57.16% - The orders of solder processing enterprises are stable after the holiday, the operating rate of tinplate enterprises is stable, but the terminal consumption is weak, and the willingness to take delivery is low. There are signs of a slowdown in inventory reduction at home and abroad [3] 3.8. Technical Analysis - The increase in positions and price indicates strong bulls, and the price has stood above the MA60 [3]

Economic Overview - In April, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations[2] - The service industry production index also showed positive growth, rising by 6.0% year-on-year in April[2] Consumer Spending - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year in April, down from 5.9% in the previous month, indicating a slight slowdown in consumer spending[3] - Major categories like home appliances and cultural office supplies saw double-digit growth, contributing significantly to retail sales performance[3][20] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 4.0% year-on-year from January to April, slightly below market expectations[4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.8%, while manufacturing investment rose by 8.8%, but real estate development investment fell by 10.3%[4] Employment Situation - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting stable employment conditions[5] Policy Implications - The monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for a 50 basis points reserve requirement ratio cut and a 20 basis points interest rate reduction[1] - The government is focusing on implementing more proactive fiscal policies to support economic recovery, particularly in infrastructure and manufacturing sectors[47]

本文全文共 2605 字，阅读全文约 8 分钟 2025年4月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.1% 2025年1—4月份全国固定资产投资增长4.0% 2025年4月份规模以上工业增加值增长6.1% 2025年4月份能源生产情况 2025年4月份社会消费品零售总额增长5.1% 4月份，社会消费品零售总额37174亿元，同比增长5.1%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额33548亿元，增长5.6% 。1—4月份，社会消费品零售总额161845亿 元，增长4.7%。其中， 除汽车以外的消费品零售额147005亿元，增长5.2% 。 点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 按经营单位所在地分，4月份，城镇消费品零售额32376亿元，同比增长5.2%；乡村消费品零售额4798亿元，增长4.7%。1—4月份，城镇消费品零售额140433亿 元，增长4.7%；乡村消费品零售额21412亿元，增长4.8%。 按消费类型分，4月份，商品零售额33007亿元，同比增长5.1%；餐饮收入4167亿元，增长5.2%。1—4月份，商品零售额143651亿元，增长4.7%；餐饮收入 18194亿元，增长4.8%。 按零售业态分，1—4月份，限额以上 ...

Group 1: Industrial Growth - Sichuan's industrial added value increased by 7.1% year-on-year from January to April, with state-owned enterprises growing by 8.1% and joint-stock enterprises by 6.4% [1] - Among 41 major industries, 35 experienced growth, with notable increases in automotive manufacturing (22.3%), chemical raw materials and products (20.0%), and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (15.0%) [1] - Key industrial product outputs included natural gas (9.4%), electricity generation (4.1%), and significant growth in smartwatches (92.7%), generators (73.1%), and lithium-ion batteries (66.7%) [1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment in Sichuan grew by 3.2% year-on-year from January to April, with the primary industry seeing a 20.5% increase and the secondary industry growing by 15.7% [1] - Industrial investment specifically rose by 15.9% during the same period [1] Group 3: Consumer Retail - Sichuan's total retail sales of consumer goods reached 928.59 billion yuan, marking a 5.3% year-on-year increase [2] - Urban retail sales accounted for 753.51 billion yuan (5.2% growth), while rural retail sales were 175.07 billion yuan (5.9% growth) [2] - Notable growth in retail categories included communication equipment (79.2%), household appliances (16.4%), and food products (13.0%) [2]