"国内方面，行业增长具备坚实基础。"陈学森说，一方面，以《有色金属行业稳增长工作方案 （2025—2026年）》及铜、铝产业高质量发展实施方案为核心的系列政策正形成系统合力，为行业从资 源保障到绿色转型提供了清晰的顶层设计和路径指引。另一方面，增长的内生动力结构正在深刻变 化，"新三样"的持续放量与人工智能等产业的崛起，共同构成了驱动行业向价值链高端攀升的核心引 擎，预示着更高质量的结构性增长。（记者王悦阳） 【纠错】 【责任编辑:张樵苏】 中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森日前表示，一季度有色金属工业运行将延续2025年底的良好态 势继续平稳运行，今年将保持平稳增长态势。 具体来看，今年，生产继续平稳运行，预计有色金属工业增加值同比增长5%左右；行业营业收 入、实现利润将保持增长；投资将保持增长，进出口贸易面临挑战。 在投资领域，下游光伏、风电、锂电等领域对镍、钴、锂等需求持续攀升，叠加国家促消费政策落 地见效，有色金属行业固定资产投资预计仍保持增长。 ...

记者日前从中国有色金属工业协会获悉，2025年，规模以上有色金属工业企业实现利润总额突破5000亿 元，达到5284.5亿元，较上年增长25.6%，创历史新高。 从金属品种来看，铝、黄金、铜表现亮眼，实现利润增加额分别为380亿元、212亿元、177亿元，对规 上有色金属企业实现利润增长的贡献率分别为35%、20%、16%。 中国有色金属工业协会副会长陈学森表示，支撑2025年我国有色金属行业效益较快增长的核心因素主要 是有色金属价格高位运行、政策红利持续释放、新兴产业需求拓展等。在新兴产业需求方面，下游应用 领域的升级迭代和拓展，为有色金属行业创造了新的增长极，航空航天、新能源、新一代信息技术、人 工智能等战略性新兴产业的快速发展，对有色金属产品的市场需求持续扩大。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王萌萌】 "这种以'新质生产力'为核心的需求拉动，正推动行业产品结构加速向高附加值领域升级，为效益增长 注入动力。"陈学森说。（记者王悦阳） ...

Group 1 - In January 2026, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month; month-on-month, it increased by 0.4%, with the increase expanding by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The industrial producer purchase price index also saw a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; month-on-month, it increased by 0.5%, with the increase expanding by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] Group 2 - In January, the prices of production materials decreased by 1.3%, contributing approximately 1.06 percentage points to the overall decline in industrial producer prices; within this category, mining industry prices fell by 8.1%, raw materials prices decreased by 2.0%, and processing industry prices dropped by 0.4% [2] - Prices of living materials decreased by 1.7%, contributing about 0.38 percentage points to the overall decline; food prices fell by 1.9%, clothing prices decreased by 0.7%, and prices of general daily goods and durable consumer goods both declined by 1.8% [2] - In terms of purchase prices, fuel and power prices decreased by 7.1%, chemical raw material prices fell by 5.8%, and construction materials and non-metallic prices dropped by 4.7%; however, prices of non-ferrous metals and wires increased by 16.1% [2] Group 3 - Month-on-month, production material prices increased by 0.5%, contributing approximately 0.37 percentage points to the overall increase in industrial producer prices; mining industry prices decreased by 1.7%, while raw materials prices rose by 0.7% and processing industry prices increased by 0.5% [2] - Living material prices saw a slight increase of 0.1%, contributing about 0.01 percentage points to the overall increase; food prices decreased by 0.1%, clothing prices fell by 0.3%, and general daily goods prices dropped by 0.1%, while durable consumer goods prices increased by 0.3% [2]

Core Insights - In 2025, the profits of China's large-scale non-ferrous metal industry reached a record high of 528.45 billion yuan, marking a 25.6% increase from the previous year, driven primarily by aluminum, gold, and copper [2][3] - The non-ferrous metal market is expected to experience structural differentiation and increased volatility in 2026, with potential for further price increases [2][3] - The global supply constraints, particularly in copper and nickel, alongside strong demand from sectors like electric vehicles, are anticipated to support non-ferrous metal prices in 2026 [3][5] Profit Performance - The profit contributions from major metal varieties in 2025 included aluminum (38 billion yuan), gold (21.2 billion yuan), and copper (17.7 billion yuan), with lead-zinc, tungsten, molybdenum, and rare earths also contributing significantly [2] - The overall profit growth contribution rates for these six major varieties were 35%, 20%, 16%, 7%, 5%, and 5% respectively [2] Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain supportive, with a continued global interest rate reduction cycle and robust domestic policies, which will provide a solid foundation for non-ferrous metal prices [2][3] - The anticipated structural growth in demand, particularly in the renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors, is expected to bolster nickel demand by approximately 5% annually [5] Supply Constraints - Supply-side constraints are projected to persist, with limited global copper mine output and reduced nickel production from Indonesia, while domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity approaches its ceiling [3][5] - The aluminum market is expected to maintain a tight balance, with high-cost alumina production potentially exiting the market due to regulatory measures [3] Regulatory Challenges - The implementation of the EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) starting January 1, 2026, is expected to increase operational costs for non-ferrous metal companies, with an estimated CBAM cost of 2.44 million euros for aluminum products exported to the EU [6][7] - The CBAM will impose higher compliance thresholds, potentially excluding high-carbon products from the EU supply chain, which could lead to increased logistical and channel pressures for companies [6][7]

违法和不良信息举报电话：0755-83514034 邮箱：bwb@stcn.com 生产方面，将继续平稳运行，预计有色金属工业增加值同比增长5%左右。根据有色金属生产特点和 产能建设情况，2026年十种常用有色金属产量同比增长2%左右。 价格方面，2026年工业硅、碳酸锂价格有望企稳回升，主要常用有色金属铜、铝价格将呈现高位震 荡。行业营业收入增幅有望达到5%，实现利润小幅增长。 券中社 × 券商中国 券 中 社 扫码下载券中社APP 扫码关注券商中国公众号 quanshangcn qzs.stcn.com 舞中 券中社APP 券 商 中 国 是 证 券 市 场 权 威 媒 体 《 证 券 时 报 》 旗 下 新 媒 体 , 券 商 中 国 对 该 平 台 所 刊 载 的 原 创 内 容 享 有 著 作 权 , 今天（2月3日），中国有色金属工业协会举行新闻发布会，介绍了2025年有色金属工业运行情况。 协会相关负责人介绍， 2025年我国有色金属主要产品产量再创新高 ，全球占比保持领先。2025年有色 金属企业工业增加值增长6.9%，高于全国规上工业增加值增速1.0个百分点。 十种有色金属产量首次突 破80 ...

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by 2.58% over the last five trading days, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.00%. In contrast, the large-cap value index fell by 2.81%, and the large-cap growth index decreased by 0.03%. The Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index dropped by 1.74%, whereas the small-cap index represented by the CSI 2000 gained 1.31%. The computer and electronics sectors performed well, while the defense, military, and real estate sectors lagged behind [1]. Risk Premium and Valuation Levels - As of January 16, 2026, the risk premium, measured as the inverse of the static PE of the CSI All Share Index minus the yield of ten-year government bonds, stands at 2.51%. The two standard deviation boundary is 4.68%. The valuation levels indicate that the CSI All Share Index's PETTM is at the 83rd percentile, with the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 at 74% and 75%, respectively. The ChiNext Index is close to 63%, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are at 69% and 67%, respectively. The ChiNext Index's valuation is relatively at the historical median level [1]. Fund Flow and Trading Volume - In the last five trading days, ETF funds experienced an outflow of 132.3 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased by approximately 97.3 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume across the two markets was 34.251 billion yuan [3]. Thematic Indexes - The latest thematic allocations include the Satellite Industry Index, Nonferrous Metals Index, Biotechnology Index, and Computer Index, among others. Specific indices mentioned are the CSI Satellite Industry Index, CSI Industrial Nonferrous Metals Theme Index, CSI Biotechnology Theme Index, CSI Big Data Industry Index, and CSI Computer Theme Index [2][4]. Market Sentiment and Risk Preference - The report includes observations on market sentiment based on the proportion of stocks above the 200-day moving average and tracks the risk preferences between equity and bond assets [13][14]. Financing Balance - The financing balance data is also included, indicating trends in margin trading activity [16]. Individual Stock Performance - Statistics on individual stock performance year-to-date based on return intervals are provided, highlighting the distribution of returns across different stocks [18]. Oversold Indices - The report notes instances of indices being oversold, which may indicate potential investment opportunities [20].

Core Insights - The conference focused on the modernization of the non-ferrous metal supply chain, which is crucial for the development of key industries such as electricity, electronics, construction, and new energy [1] - China has become the world's largest producer and consumer of non-ferrous metals, significantly supporting the growth of strategic emerging industries and the industrial economy [1] - In the first half of 2025, the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry grew by 7.6% year-on-year, outperforming the average growth rate of the industrial sector by 1.2 percentage points [1] Industry Challenges - The non-ferrous metal industry faces multiple challenges, including tightening resource and environmental constraints, low efficiency in supply chain collaboration, and difficulties in financing for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) [2] - Key recommendations to address these challenges include building a smart and efficient supply chain ecosystem through "digital chain connectivity," empowering SMEs through financial solutions, and creating a sustainable industrial community through ecological collaboration [2] Policy and Market Development - The establishment of a unified national market is essential for building a high-level socialist market economy, focusing on the unification of systems and rules [3] - The conference included the unveiling of the "China SME Association Anhui Office" to better serve local SMEs and a signing ceremony for the "Yangtze River Delta Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Financial Unified Market" to enhance regional industrial collaboration and address financing challenges [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growth and stability of the non-ferrous metal industry in China during the first three quarters of the year, with significant increases in production, investment, and trade [1] Group 2 - The added value of the non-ferrous metal industry increased by 7.8% year-on-year, surpassing the national industrial growth rate by 1.6 percentage points [1] - The production of ten common non-ferrous metals reached 61.249 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.0% [1] Group 3 - Fixed asset investment in the non-ferrous metal industry grew by 10.1% compared to the same period last year, with mining and selection industries seeing a substantial increase of 49.3% [1] - Private sector fixed asset investment rose by 7.9% year-on-year [1] Group 4 - The total import and export trade of non-ferrous metals amounted to $305.66 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.4% [1] - Imports reached $244.94 billion, up 11.9% year-on-year, while exports totaled $60.72 billion, reflecting a growth of 19.8% [1]

Core Insights - The forum discussed the role of the futures market in supporting the real economy of the non-ferrous metals industry, emphasizing its importance in ensuring supply chain security and promoting high-quality industry development [1] Non-Ferrous Metals Industry - The non-ferrous metals industry has shown stable performance in 2023, with an industrial added value growth of 7.8% year-on-year and a production of 61.25 million tons, reflecting a 3.0% increase [2] - The futures market has become a crucial part of the financial system, aiding in price discovery, risk management, and resource allocation, which stabilizes production and enhances the industry's resilience [2] - The futures product system is continuously improving, with 13 non-ferrous metal futures and corresponding options available, leading to deeper integration into business operations [2] - The industry faces new challenges such as resource security and green transformation, necessitating further development of the futures market [3] Steel Industry - The steel industry has seen a significant increase in futures market participation, with nine steel-related futures and four options currently available, maintaining the largest trading scale globally [4] - There has been a notable shift in participation, with large steel enterprises that previously avoided the futures market now engaging more deeply [4] - The steel sector is currently under pressure from weak demand and a complex external environment, prompting calls for measures to reduce participation costs and enhance market regulation [4] Petrochemical Industry - The petrochemical sector has advanced from initial exploration to deep collaboration in integrating production and finance, with significant progress in risk management and financing innovation [5] - In 2024, the petrochemical industry's revenue is projected to reach 16.28 trillion yuan, with a profit of 789.71 billion yuan, marking increases of 46.9% and 53.2% respectively since 2020 [5] - Despite progress, challenges remain in the petrochemical industry regarding balanced participation, risk management tools, and the need for further development of futures market functionalities [6] - Recommendations for the petrochemical industry include enhancing market supply, deepening integration, and improving risk management capabilities [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: On October 29, the main nickel contract fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [1]. - Stainless steel: On October 29, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and the cost support is weakening. It is expected that the upside space for stainless steel is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: On October 29, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 120300 yuan/ton, 121380 yuan/ton, 121560 yuan/ton, and 121710 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 950 yuan/ton, 980 yuan/ton, 950 yuan/ton, and 960 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 109262 hands (-47034), and the open interest was 109686 hands (-5360). The LME 3 - month nickel official price was 15320 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122100 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average price of nickel beans was 123300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: On the supply side, nickel ore prices remained flat, the amount of nickel ore arriving at the port last week decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, domestic production in October increased, and Indonesian production increased, leading to nickel - iron inventory reduction. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in October, and export profits expanded. On the demand side, ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, the LME inventory increased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory decreased [1]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: On October 29, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range. The trading volume was 93841 hands (-3249), and the open interest was 98223 hands (-2030) [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium narrowed. The average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13550 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In terms of supply, stainless - steel production in October increased, and the production of the 300 - series decreased. In terms of demand, the terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost**: The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased, and the social inventory of the 300 - series last week was 612700 tons (-9000) [1]. News and Information - According to the statistics of each sub - association of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association, in the first three quarters of 2025, the output of industrial silicon in new - energy metals was 328000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.8%; the output of electrolytic nickel was 347000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.6%; the output of refined cobalt was 134000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%; and the output of lithium carbonate was 588000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.0% [1].