日本税收组织正在考虑对小包裹免税。 日本财务大臣加藤胜信：与美国财长贝森特有关汇率的会谈将寻求遵循现有立场。 ...

智通财经5月20日电，日本财务大臣加藤胜信称，如果G7会议期间与美国财长贝森特会面，预计将讨论 包括汇率在内的各种议题。 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the contrasting measurements of China's GDP using exchange rate and purchasing power parity (PPP), highlighting a significant discrepancy in the perceived economic size of China compared to the US [5][10][12] - According to exchange rate calculations, China's GDP is approximately $19 trillion, about 65% of the US GDP of $29 trillion, while PPP estimates China's GDP at around $38 trillion, suggesting it surpasses the US [5][10][12] - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the underlying economic structures and the implications of these measurements on global perceptions of China's economic strength [12][26][38] Group 2 - China's agricultural output has consistently ranked first globally over the past decade, producing nearly 100 million tons more than the US, indicating a strong foundation for its economy [14][16] - In industrial production, China dominates global supply chains, contributing over 50% of the world's steel production, around 60% of electrolytic aluminum, and close to 45% of copper [18][20][24] - The manufacturing sector in China is robust, with the country leading in automobile production, home appliances, and electronics, holding significant global market shares [20][24] Group 3 - The article points out that the statistical methods used to measure GDP may overlook significant contributions from emerging service sectors and informal economies, leading to an underestimation of China's economic output [28][30][34] - The rise of gig economy workers and small businesses, which often operate outside traditional economic measurements, contributes to a substantial but unaccounted economic value [30][34] - The undervaluation of the Chinese yuan in international markets may also distort GDP figures when converted to foreign currencies, further complicating the assessment of China's economic size [36][38] Group 4 - The future of China's economic measurement may improve with more detailed service sector statistics and the ongoing internationalization of the yuan, which could provide a more accurate reflection of its economic standing [40]

Global Asset Market Performance 10 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - The 10 - year Treasury yields of various major economies on May 16, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes are presented. For example, the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.480 on May 16, 2025, with a latest change of 0.047, a weekly change of 0.100, a monthly change of 0.144, and a yearly change of - 0.015 [3]. 2 - Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - The 2 - year Treasury yields of some major economies on May 16, 2025, and their corresponding changes are shown. For instance, the US 2 - year Treasury yield was 4.050 on that date, with a latest change of 0.030, a weekly change of 0.270, a monthly change of 0.310, and a yearly change of - 0.770 [3]. Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging - Market Currencies - The exchange rates of the dollar against major emerging - market currencies on May 16, 2025, and their changes are provided. For example, the dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.665 on that day, with a latest change of - 0.31%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of - 3.76%, and a yearly change of 11.28% [3]. Stock Indices of Major Economies - The stock indices of major economies on May 16, 2025, and their latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes are given. For example, the S&P 500 index was 5958.380 on that date, with a latest change of 0.70%, a weekly change of 5.27%, a monthly change of 10.41%, and a yearly change of 14.86% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - The credit bond indices of different regions and levels on May 16, 2025, and their changes are presented. For example, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3344.160 on that day, with a latest change of 0.13%, a weekly change of 0.19%, a monthly change of 0.90%, and a yearly change of 5.44% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are provided. For example, the closing price of A - shares was 3367.46 with a change of - 0.40% [5]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) and their环比 changes of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are given. For example, the PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 12.56 with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. Risk Premium - The risk premiums and their环比 changes of S&P 500 and German DAX are presented. For example, the risk premium of S&P 500 was - 0.56 with a环比 change of - 0.08 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are provided. For example, the latest fund flow in A - shares was - 263.31 [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes and环比 changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small - and medium - sized enterprise board, and ChiNext are given. For example, the latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 10895.29 with a环比 change of - 628.66 [5]. Main Contract Basis and Spread - The basis and spread of IF, IH, and IC are presented. For example, the basis of IF was - 43.09 with a spread of - 1.11% [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are provided. For example, the closing price of T00 was 108.480 with a change of 0.02% [6]. - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M and their daily changes are given. For example, the funding rate of R001 was 1.6513% with a daily change of 10.00 BP [6].

计划根据协议与贝森特就外汇问题进行谈判。 日本财务大臣加藤胜信：与美国财长贝森特确认汇率过度波动会损害经济，还确认了汇率应由市场决 定。 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the impact of the US-China trade conflict on various industries and macroeconomic conditions. Core Points and Arguments - **Global Supply Chain Constraints**: The US faces significant challenges in adjusting global supply chains in the short term, leading to persistent price increases that cannot be resolved through supply adjustments alone. This may require agreements with other trade partners or domestic subsidies for mitigation [1][3][4] - **Tariff Measures**: The US's imposition of tariffs is driven by economic, political, and social factors. The short-term goal is to address trade deficits and increase tax revenue, while the long-term goal is partial decoupling and maintaining global dominance, making complete tariff removal unlikely [1][5] - **China's Tariff Strategy**: China has adopted a strategy of suspending or canceling certain tariffs based on negotiation outcomes, making it one of the countries with the highest tax burdens globally due to tariffs related to fentanyl and investigations [1][5] - **Projected Revenue from Tariffs**: Assuming US imports reach $3 trillion in 2025, a 10% tariff could generate at least $200 billion in additional revenue, not accounting for potential future tariff increases on certain trade partners [1][6] - **Trade Negotiation Phases**: The current phase of US-China trade negotiations is the second stage, with expectations of continued tariff increases. The first phase saw China implement comprehensive countermeasures that exceeded market expectations [1][7][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Macroeconomic Impact of Tariffs**: The imposition of tariffs leads to decreased total output and increased prices in consumer countries initially, followed by rising interest rates and inflation. In producer countries, initial output declines are offset by falling prices and rising real wages [2] - **Sector Resilience**: Sectors with low trade correlation, such as consumer goods, services, and consumer banking, are expected to remain stable. Import substitution sectors like agriculture and certain chemicals show potential, while automotive parts and consumer electronics may receive exemptions [3][9] - **Commodity Price Trends**: Commodity prices are generally on a downward trend, with domestic policy support potentially weakening, leading to price volatility. Interest rates are expected to have limited downward pressure, and exchange rates may fluctuate around the 7.2 mark [10] - **Investment Strategy**: In the current economic environment, it is recommended to focus on domestic demand sectors while maintaining a defensive investment posture. A small allocation to aggressive sectors is suggested to capitalize on market volatility [11]

Report Information - Report Date: May 15, 2025 [2] - Team: Research Center's Macro Team [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields - On May 14, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, and France were 4.538%, 4.712%, and 3.378% respectively [3]. - Latest changes in yields for major economies varied, with the US up 0.071 and Switzerland down -0.009 [3]. - One-year changes showed significant differences, like the UK up 0.491 and Japan down -0.780 [3]. 2-Year Treasury Yields - On May 14, 2025, the 2-year Treasury yields of the US, UK, and Germany were 3.980%, 4.018%, and 1.938% respectively [3]. - Latest changes in yields had different trends, such as the US up 0.100 and South Korea down -0.024 [3]. - One-year changes also differed greatly, like the US down -0.990 and Japan up 0.423 [3]. Exchange Rates - On May 14, 2025, the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate was 5.638, and the latest change was 0.53% [3]. - The onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates were 7.208 and 7.211 respectively, with latest changes of 0.05% and 0.17% [3]. - One-year changes in exchange rates showed various trends, such as the US dollar to Brazilian real up 11.06% and the US dollar to Malaysian ringgit down -9.52% [3]. Stock Indices - On May 14, 2025, the S&P 500 index was 5892.580, and the latest change was 0.10% [3]. - The Hang Seng Index was 23640.650, with a latest change of 2.30% [3]. - One-year changes in stock indices also varied, like the S&P 500 up 13.74% and the French CAC down -2.00% [3]. Credit Bond Indices - Latest changes in credit bond indices showed different trends, with the US investment - grade credit bond index down -0.30% and the euro - zone high - yield credit bond index unchanged at 0.00% [3][4]. - One - year changes were positive across the board, with the US investment - grade credit bond index up 4.70% and the emerging economies high - yield credit bond index up 12.31% [4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 3403.95, 3943.21, and 2753.79 respectively, with corresponding daily increases of 0.86%, 1.21%, and 1.69% [5]. Valuation - The PE (TTM) of CSI 300, SSE 50, and S&P 500 were 12.72, 11.08, and 25.21 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.15, 0.15, and 0.03 [5]. Fund Flows - The latest net inflow of A - shares was 149.28, while the 5 - day average was -304.29 [5]. Trading Volume - The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 13167.27, with a环比 increase of 252.02 [5]. Basis and Spread - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were -35.81, -16.19, and -101.32 respectively, with corresponding spreads of -0.91%, -0.59%, and -1.75% [5]. Treasury Futures Trading Data Closing Prices and Price Changes - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.535, 105.810, 108.690, and 106.080 respectively, with price increases of 0.17%, 0.06%, 0.15%, and 0.04% [6]. Funding Rates - The R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4412%, 1.5440%, and 1.6530% respectively, with daily changes of -9.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and -1.00 BP [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with a slight decline in Shandong and stability in Jiangsu. The supply from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.19 million cubic meters in May. The demand and inventory situation varies among ports, with overall de - stocking in the four major ports. The futures market is in a weak and volatile state with a weak supply - demand pattern [4][5][15] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - For the mainstream delivery product of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quotes 770 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly from last week, and the Jiangsu market quotes 785 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong is 830 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly. The price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong is 780 yuan/cubic meter, down 15 yuan/cubic meter from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are in short supply [4] - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all going to the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival of 1.19 million cubic meters [4][7] - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 0.1547 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] - As of the week of May 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1373 points, up 112 points (+8.9%) from last week, and its related sub - index BHSI is 568 points, down 0.2% from last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1347.84 points, down 1.7% from last week. The US dollar index rebounds, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.5% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.6% from last week [5][55] 2. Supply - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all headed for the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival volume of 1.19 million cubic meters [7] - Details of New Zealand log shipping schedules are provided, including departure time, load capacity, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8] 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters) [5][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1.2658 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 26,000 cubic meters, - 2.01%), Taicang Port is about 0.5515 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 80,700 cubic meters, - 12.76%), Xinminzhou is about 0.2746 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 47,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 0.2171 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 154,700 cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] 4. Market Trends - As of May 9, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 is 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.3% from last week. The futures market continues to be weak and volatile, and the fundamentals maintain a weak supply - demand pattern. The month - spread changes are small this week, with the 07 - 09 month - spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 month - spread at - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 month - spread at - 5 yuan/cubic meter [15] 5. Price and Spread - The spot price of logs and downstream construction timber shows different trends in different regions and specifications. Most prices remain stable compared to last week, with some showing slight decreases or increases over a four - week period [19][21] - The regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications of logs are presented graphically [22][23][28] - The price differences between different tree species and specifications of logs are also presented graphically [40][42][44] 6. Other - The freight index and exchange rate data are provided. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Handysize Bulk Carrier Index (BHSI), the Crude Oil Tanker Index (BDTI) show different changes compared to last week and four weeks ago. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has a small change. The US dollar - RMB and US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rates also change [54][55]

Report Overview - The report is a macro team report from the research center, titled "Large Asset Morning Report", dated May 9, 2025, presenting global asset market performance, stock index futures trading data, and treasury bond futures trading data [1] Global Asset Market Performance 10-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On May 8, 2025, the 10-year treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.380, 4.545, 3.239 respectively. The latest changes were 0.109, 0.087, 0.045; weekly changes were 0.170, 0.037, 0.003; monthly changes were 0.194, -0.069, -0.158; annual changes were -0.325, 0.184, 0.112 [2] 2-Year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On May 8, 2025, the 2-year treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.780, 3.921, 1.769 respectively. The latest changes were 0.180, 0.124, 0.059; weekly changes were 0.010, 0.062, 0.030; monthly changes were -0.030, -0.069, -0.005; annual changes were -1.080, -0.550, -1.239 [2] Dollar Exchange Rates Against Major Emerging Market Currencies - On May 8, 2025, the dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, Russian ruble, South African rand, etc. were 5.663, - , 18.201 respectively. The latest changes were -1.43%, - , -0.35%; weekly changes were 0.14%, - , -1.75%; monthly changes were -4.25%, - , -7.42%; annual changes were 9.77%, - , -4.37% [2] Stock Indices of Major Economies - On May 8, 2025, the closing prices of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq, etc. were 5663.940, 41368.450, 17928.140 respectively. The latest changes were 0.58%, 0.62%, 1.07%; weekly changes were 2.45%, 2.84%, 3.24%; monthly changes were 11.89%, 8.96%, 14.90%; annual changes were 12.19%, 8.62%, 14.84% [2] Credit Bond Indices - The latest changes in the US investment-grade credit bond index, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index, and emerging market investment-grade credit bond index were -0.40%, -0.07%, -0.23% respectively; weekly changes were -0.88%, -0.04%, -0.38%; monthly changes were 0.28%, 1.33%, 0.22%; annual changes were 7.02%, 6.35%, 7.53% [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A-shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 3352.00, 3852.90, 2679.51 respectively, with changes of 0.28%, 0.56%, 0.33% [3] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500 were 12.45, 10.81, 29.04 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.04, 0.00, 0.17 [3] Risk Premium - The risk premiums of the S&P 500 and German DAX (1/PE - 10-year interest rate) were -0.25, 2.80 respectively, with环比 changes of -0.13, -0.12 [3] Fund Flows - The latest values of A-shares, the main board, and the GEM were 178.56, 85.42, 96.57 respectively [3] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, and SSE 50 were 12933.77, 2469.87, 634.09 respectively, with环比 changes of -1749.40, -390.24, -172.46 [3] Basis - The basis of IF, IH, and IC were -36.90, -14.71, -113.81 respectively, with amplitudes of -0.96%, -0.55%, -1.97% [3] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 109.060, 106.180, 109.215, 106.515 respectively, with changes of -0.18%, -0.06%, -0.18%, -0.04% [4] - The funding rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR-3M were 1.5757%, 1.6477%, 1.7200% respectively, with daily changes of -13.00, -6.00, -2.00 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Lombardelli, stated that there have not been significant changes in trade patterns, with the primary impact being felt through exchange rates [1] Group 1 - The current trade model remains largely unchanged, indicating stability in trade dynamics [1] - The most substantial effect observed so far is through fluctuations in exchange rates, highlighting the importance of currency valuation in trade [1]