Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index (DXY) to 97.48 represents a significant drop of over 10% this year, erasing all gains from the previous year [1][3] - Trump's intention to nominate a new Federal Reserve chair before Powell's term ends is aimed at influencing market expectations and potentially altering interest rate policies [3][4] - The leading candidate for the new chair is Kevin Walsh, who has previously supported rate cuts, indicating a possible shift towards a more dovish monetary policy [3][4] Group 2 - Historical trends show that the dollar's performance is closely tied to the Federal Reserve chair's policy stance, with a dovish shift likely to weaken the dollar further [4][5] - A weaker dollar is expected to benefit gold and commodities, as it makes these assets cheaper for holders of other currencies [5] - Investors should monitor key dates: the announcement of the new chair this summer or fall, and the official transition in May next year, as these could lead to significant market volatility and investment opportunities [5]

Group 1 - Trump is considering announcing the next Federal Reserve Chair earlier than the traditional transition period to pressure current Chair Powell to accelerate interest rate cuts [1][2] - Potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair include former Fed Governor Warsh, NEC Director Hassett, current Fed Governor Waller, and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin [2][4] - Powell emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve during a Senate hearing, stating that while rate cuts are possible, a cautious approach will be taken [2] Group 2 - Waller, a Fed Governor nominated by Trump, indicated support for a potential rate cut next month due to concerns over a weakening labor market [4] - Warsh has publicly criticized the Fed's handling of political pressures, urging the institution to maintain maturity and resilience [4]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will defend the decision to maintain interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time during congressional hearings this week, amidst ongoing pressure from former President Trump for rate cuts [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Powell is expected to reiterate that the Federal Reserve is in a favorable position to wait for more economic data before considering any rate changes, emphasizing the need for caution [2][3]. - Economists predict that the core inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve may have only risen by 0.1% for the third consecutive month in May, marking the mildest inflation performance since 2020 [2][3]. - Internal divisions within the Federal Reserve regarding the impact of tariffs and interest rate policy are highlighted, with two governors indicating potential support for a rate cut in July [2][3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Conflict Impact - Powell is likely to face questions regarding the economic implications of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, especially after the U.S. engaged directly in the conflict [3]. - The price of WTI crude oil initially surged above $78 but later fell back to around $66, reflecting investor concerns about supply risks [3]. - Powell has indicated that while energy prices may rise during Middle Eastern turmoil, such fluctuations typically do not have lasting effects on inflation [3]. Group 3: Political Pressure and Independence - Republican lawmakers are expected to pressure Powell for clear reasoning behind the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, although not all Republicans will adopt a confrontational approach [5][6]. - Some Democratic lawmakers may support Powell, warning that the Federal Reserve's independence is under threat from Republican pressures [6]. - Powell is anticipated to maintain a calm demeanor during the hearings, emphasizing that Federal Open Market Committee decisions are based on careful, objective analysis [6]. Group 4: Banking Regulation Agenda - Observers will assess Powell's views on ongoing regulatory changes, as the White House pushes for a relaxation of regulations [7]. - The Federal Reserve is considering proposals to lower the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio, a rule introduced in 2008 that requires banks to hold a certain amount of capital relative to their assets [7]. - Powell may also need to address a proposal from Senator Ted Cruz to prohibit the Federal Reserve from paying interest on bank reserves, which could impact the Fed's ability to control short-term interest rates [7].

美元霸权的"切尔诺贝利时刻"？——黄金大撤离与美联储的政治困境 历史学家或许会将2025年铭记为美元霸权崩塌的元年，以及黄金重回"货币之王"宝座的起点。这一年，政治对信任的摧毁，将人类重新推向对最原始硬通货 ——黄金的依赖。 这一切，都源于美国总统特朗普对美联储的持续施压，以及由此引发的全球黄金储备的"大撤离"。 2026年，现任美联储主席鲍威尔任期届满。此前，他或许从未料到自己会成为华盛顿政治角斗场中的一枚"人肉盾牌"。 特朗普在社交媒体上多次公开斥责 鲍威尔"动作迟缓"，并扬言在其任期结束后，将任命一位更为"听话"的美联储主席。此举赤裸裸地削弱了美联储的市场独立性，也对美元的信用造成了巨大 冲击。 德国和意大利，率先发出了将存放在美国的黄金运回本国的强烈呼声，这并非偶然。 这场围绕黄金的博弈，更像是一场精心编排的黑色喜剧。 美联储主席鲍威尔在芝加哥经济俱乐部坚称不会因总统压力而改变政策，然而，高盛的报告却一 针见血地指出：每当特朗普发出一条批评美联储的推文，市场对通胀的预期就会跳涨1个百分点。 德国和意大利，分别持有全球第二和第三大黄金储备，储量分别为3352吨和2452吨，这些黄金都存放于纽约联邦储备银 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses former President Trump's dissatisfaction with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, highlighting Trump's desire to potentially replace Powell and the implications of such a move on monetary policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve [1][3][11]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism of Powell - Trump has expressed that he would never reappoint Powell, criticizing him for slow interest rate hikes during the post-pandemic inflation period [3][4]. - Trump's main grievances stem from Powell's monetary policy decisions, which he believes have negatively impacted the economy and stock market [4][5]. Group 2: Political and Economic Implications - Trump's potential appointment as Fed Chair could allow him to implement aggressive monetary policies, such as zero interest rates and unlimited quantitative easing, to create a facade of economic prosperity [7][8]. - This move could undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve, setting a precedent for future political interference in monetary policy [8][11]. Group 3: Personal Financial Interests - Trump's business empire, burdened with $2.3 billion in debt, would benefit from lower interest rates and a favorable monetary policy environment, directly impacting his financial interests [8][9]. - The potential for increased consumer spending due to a loose monetary policy would also positively affect Trump's businesses, including hotels and golf courses [9][11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's probability of maintaining interest rates in July dropped from 91.7% to 83.5% due to recent dovish comments from Governor Waller, indicating internal disagreements within the Fed regarding interest rate policies [1][3] - The Fed revised its GDP growth forecast for this year down from 1.7% to 1.4%, while increasing inflation expectations, suggesting a complex economic environment [3] - Trump's pressure on the Fed has led to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts, with a current probability of around 60% for a rate cut in September [5] Group 2 - The U.S. national debt exceeds $30 trillion, and a 1% reduction in interest rates could save approximately $300 billion in interest payments annually, but potential inflation could counteract these savings [3] - Powell emphasized the Fed's independence and commitment to economic stability, indicating that political pressures are unlikely to alter the Fed's policy direction [4] - Investors are advised to focus on fundamental data and long-term industry trends rather than short-term interest rate fluctuations influenced by political rhetoric [5]

难以捉摸的特朗普：百日惊奇，从高尔夫球场到总统令 唐纳德·特朗普的总统任期，如同一部充满戏剧张力的现实剧，每天都上演着出人意料的剧情反转。他那如同过山车般 反复无常的决策风格，让白宫内阁疲于奔命，也让全球媒体时刻紧盯其一举一动。特朗普总统的个人社交媒体账号， 更俨然成为发布国家重大决定的官方渠道，彻底颠覆了传统的白宫新闻发布机制；白宫发言人这个角色，在特朗普时 代，几乎沦为摆设。 四、经济风暴眼：炮轰美联储主席鲍威尔 让我们回顾一下这位非同寻常的总统在任职150天内（截至1月20日）所做出的几项惊世骇俗的决定，以及由此引发的 轩然大波。 一、高尔夫球场上的总统：挥杆与决策的交响曲 媒体统计显示，在短短150个工作日里，特朗普总统竟有33天都耗费在高尔夫球场上，平均每5.6天就要挥杆一次，这 与其口口声声批判美国人假期过多的言论形成了鲜明对比，无疑也为其"高效率"的执政风格蒙上了一层阴影。 这样的 高频次高尔夫行程不仅引发了媒体关于其工作时间分配的质疑，更引发了公众对总统工作效率的担忧。 二、对内：挥舞"行政斧"，砍向美国人民的十一假期 特朗普总统在精打细算后，认为美国公民享有的十一假期——包括元旦、马丁·路德 ...

特朗普自重返白宫以来，便开始着手在关税政策上做文章，对美国经济市场造成了极大的冲击，多次因为降息的问题与美联储主席隔空发生冲突，终于在5 月底，双方进行了近年来的首次会面，期间特朗普再次对鲍威尔进行抨击，事后也多次向其施压，核心目的始终只有一个。 特朗普对低利率环境的渴望已成为其经济政策的核心标识，5月30日，他将鲍威尔召至白宫，进行重返总统职位后的首次直接会谈，上次两人会面还是在 2019年，特朗普当面强调不降息是"错误"，将使美国"相对中国处于经济劣势"。 这种施压并未止步于这场会议，6月6日，特朗普放话，称下一任美联储主席人选决定即将公布，还隔空向鲍威尔喊话，称其正在给美国金融带来损失。话里 话外就一个意思，再不按照我的要求降息，我就把你换掉。 不过在当地时间6月18日，美联储公布利率决议，仍然按兵不动，很显然，特朗普在此之前的多次施压并没有起到什么有用的效果。而就在同一天，美欧财 政部最新报告显示，中国继3月减持189亿美债之后，再次抛售82亿美债。 直到6月18日美联储公布利率决议的关键时刻前几小时，特朗普还在社交媒体平台持续发声，抨击鲍威尔，并提出利率至少应降2个百分点，甚至表示担任美 联储主席， ...

骏利亨德森投资环球短存续期及流动性主管兼投资组合经理Dan Siluk指，美联储鸽式按兵不动，并为 2025年下半年降息保持大门敞开。美联储明确传达出不急于行动的讯号，但若通胀持续回落、劳动市场 继续软化，将随时准备采取行动。通胀预测上调或会使市场较不预期大幅宽松政策出现，但对2025年利 率路径维持不变，则是向市场保证了灵活性。 2025年GDP增速自1.7%下修至1.4%，反映对贸易与全球逆风的担忧。失业率自4.4%微幅上调至4.5%， 显示劳动市场已有初步软化迹象。2025年PCE通胀率由2.7%上调至3.0%，核心PCE由2.8%上调至3.1%， 反映关税与能源价格压力。2025年联邦基金利率预测维持在3.9%，预示降息两次;2026及2027年的利率 路径略为上移，长期利率则为3.0%。 骏利亨德森指，总统特朗普呼吁大幅降息1至2.5%并公开批评鲍威尔，凸显美联储所面临的政治压力。 尽管如此，美联储仍决定按兵不动，进一步巩固了其独立性及对双重使命的承诺。经济预测摘要(SEP) 显示，尽管通胀风险依然存在，但经济与劳动市场预测留有宽松的空间，若情势恶化仍可考虑降息。 骏利亨德森提到，接下来，市场将密切 ...

在当天举行的新闻发布会上， 鲍威尔一方面展现出对美联储应对经济变化能力的信心，另一方面却坦诚"我们不知道接下来会发生什么"。 Timiraos认为这种矛盾的态度反映了当前政策的困境：一方面，通胀虽有缓和，但关税政策可能在未来几个月推高物价；另一方面，就业市场虽有疲软迹象， 但失业率仍维持在较低的4.2%。 不确定性下美联储继续观望，但经济信号"模糊不清" 文章指出， 关税政策的不确定性是美联储采取观望态度的主要原因。 然而，4月以来经济数据的表现并不一致，这种模糊性给美联储构成了一大挑战。 Evercore ISI副主席克里希纳·古哈对当前的经济数据给出了一个形象的比喻： 关税政策的不确定性持续笼罩，美联储保持观望立场。 18日周三，在美联储宣布继续"按兵不动"后，有"新美联储通讯社"之称的Nick Timiraos在《华尔街日报》发表题为《美联储静待关税经济结束（The Fed Waits Out the Tariff Economy）》的文章，详细分析了美联储在当前复杂经济环境下的政策立场。 文章指出，美联储正试图弄清楚特朗普4月2日宣布的关税政策会如何影响经济，他们既担心通胀卷土重来，也关注就业市场的潜 ...