Report on Investment Analysis of Multiple Commodities 1. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The market for various commodities shows a mixed picture with different factors influencing each commodity's price movement. Some are affected by supply - demand dynamics, while others are influenced by geopolitical events, policy changes, and economic data releases [1][2][4]. - **Short - term Outlook**: Most commodities are expected to experience short - term price fluctuations, with some showing a tendency to trade within a range, while others may have a slightly bullish or bearish bias depending on their specific fundamentals [1][4][5]. 2. Summary by Commodity **Metals** - **Gold**: A lawsuit by Fed理事Lisa Cook regarding the Fed's independence could impact the market. If the Fed loses, concerns about US stagflation may increase, which is positive for gold. Fed rate - cut expectations have led to a short - term gold rebound, but the medium - term trend needs further observation [2]. - **Silver**: US Q2 GDP growth was higher than expected, and inflation was lower than expected. After the data release, risk appetite increased, and combined with Fed rate - cut expectations, silver is expected to trade with a slightly bullish bias [6]. - **Iron Ore**: With increased end - of - month production restrictions at Tangshan steel mills, iron ore demand has decreased. Overseas shipments and arrivals have declined slightly, and port inventories are expected to increase. The price is expected to trade in a range, supported by post - parade restocking expectations [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: Rebar production has increased, inventories have risen for five consecutive weeks, and apparent demand has slightly recovered. The supply is high, and demand is weak. However, with compressed steel mill profits and improved export orders, the rebar futures may trade in a narrow range [5]. - **Copper (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in metals category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: Short - term price movements are uncertain due to the Russia - Ukraine situation. In the long - term, the oil market faces significant supply pressure. Currently, the production increase expectation is pitted against stable inventories, and the price is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias in the short - term [11][12]. - **Natural Gas (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in energy category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Agricultural Products** - **Soybeans**: Due to expected increases in new soybean production and a weakening futures market, the spot price of soybeans is expected to face downward pressure in the short - term. Policy regulation and terminal restocking demand need to be closely monitored [8]. - **Palm Oil**: Crude oil prices have dragged down the entire oil market. Despite high - volume low - price replenishment in the market, the price of palm oil is expected to experience a short - term correction and trade with a bearish bias [8]. - **Corn (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. - **Wheat (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. - **Rice (not mentioned in the text, but for completeness in agricultural products category)**: No relevant information in the provided text. **Others** - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals of coking coal have not changed significantly. Supply is restricted by over - production checks and heavy rainfall in Shanxi, while demand is under pressure due to pre - parade environmental production restrictions at coking plants and steel mills. The price is expected to trade in a range [1]. - **Long - and Medium - term Treasury Bonds**: Multiple small and medium - sized banks have cut RMB deposit rates, which is beneficial for liquidity. In the context of increased risk appetite and a strong stock market, long - term bonds are expected to trade with a bearish bias [5]. - **Rubber**: Supply is in an increasing phase but is affected by weather, resulting in slower - than - expected growth. Demand is weak, with a decline in tire production and high inventory pressure. The price is expected to trade in a range [12]. - **PTA**: PTA production and social inventories have decreased, and downstream polyester demand has shown a slight recovery. However, the sustainability of the demand increase is uncertain. Given the weakening PX supply - demand and crude oil prices, it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [13]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production has increased, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories have continued to accumulate. The inland market is weak, while the port market has stable basis and acceptable trading volume. The price is expected to trade in a range, and short - positions should be held with caution [10]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The price of LLDPE has been weak, production has decreased, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Cost support has strengthened. The price is expected to trade with a slightly bearish bias in the short - term [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The production of soda ash has decreased, and inventories have also declined slightly. The float glass market is stable, and downstream demand is mainly for low - price replenishment. The price of soda ash is expected to trade in a range, and it is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Live Hogs**: The shrinkage of farms has led to a slight improvement in low - price transactions. With the current low price, there is a growing sentiment of expecting a price increase. The price may rebound in the short - term, and it is recommended to take short - long positions. Farmers can choose the right time for hedging [6].

一场前所未有的政经风暴：特朗普解雇美联储理事，撼动百年独立根基 一、清晨推特引爆"金融风暴" 想象一下，如果有一天，美国总统突然解雇一位美联储理事，那会是怎样一番景象？这并非天方夜谭，而是真真切切地发生了。一声令下，现任美联储理事 丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）即刻走人！这绝非演习，而是美国政经领域的一场"地震"级事件。 然而，这真的是真相吗？早在2022年库克进入美联储时，国会就已对这一事件进行过详尽调查，当时并未发现任何问题。如今旧事重提，难免让人觉得这是 在"找借口"，背后另有隐情。 二、为何说这是一步"险棋"？ 美联储的特殊地位不容忽视。自1913年成立以来，它一直强调其独立性，不受政府直接干预，自主决定货币政策，自主管理理事任期。尽管美国总统有权提 名理事，但要想中途将其解雇，却难如登天。 2025年8月25日清晨，当许多美国人还沉浸在睡梦中时，特朗普在他的社交媒体上投下了一枚重磅炸弹：宣布立即解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克，没有任何预 兆，没有任何流程，只有一句冰冷的"她必须走人"。给出的理由是，库克多年前在房贷申请中涉嫌"提交不实信息"，重复申报"主要居所"以获取优惠。 法律条文明确规定，除非理事存 ...

库克在起诉书中称，特朗普政府解雇她的行为"史无前例且非法"。"独立的美联储对于经济稳定至关重 要，因为总统的短期政治利益往往与健全的货币政策相冲突。" 特朗普政府指称，库克在2021年的两笔房贷申请中作出虚假陈述。美司法部表示已展开调查，但尚未公 开提出任何指控。 中新社华盛顿8月28日电(记者陈孟统)美联储理事莉萨·库克(Lisa Cook)28日在华盛顿地区法院提起诉 讼，称特朗普政府无权解雇自己，并向法庭申请限制令阻止解职。 美国总统特朗普25日以涉嫌住房抵押贷款欺诈为由，宣布解雇库克。库克回应称，特朗普无权解雇她， 将继续履职。 库克是首位担任美联储理事的非裔女性，她于2022年5月就任现职，任期至2038年。在特朗普持续施压 美联储降息的背景下，库克提起的诉讼被美国舆论视为美联储能否维持独立性的关键事件。 库克在诉讼中辩称，白宫的指控与她在任职期间的行为无关，也未被证实，且她未获机会回应。即便相 关指控属实，也不构成解职理由。 法院29日上午将就该案举行首次听证。美联储拒绝对此发表评论，仅表示将遵守法院裁决。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 美联储理事丽莎·库克（Lisa Cook）的律师表示，美国总统特朗普要求将其罢免所依据的抵押贷款纠 纷，可能源于一次无意的"文书错误"。 律师团队由阿贝·洛厄尔（Abbe Lowell）带领，他们强调，特朗普和普尔特甚至没有明确声称库克因所 谓"文书错误"获益，更没有证据表明该错误是故意为之。 过去一周，普尔特多次在社交媒体上攻击库克。库克提起诉讼后，普尔特发文称"没有人可以凌驾于法 律之上"。 库克在法庭文件中还称，特朗普在她尚未回应普尔特的指控前，就试图解雇她，剥夺了她应享有的正当 程序宪法权利。她还表示，根据《联邦储备法》，她有权获得正式听证。 库克于周四提起诉讼，试图阻止特朗普的"非法企图"。该诉讼是在华盛顿特区联邦法院提起的，还将美 联储主席鲍威尔和美联储理事会本身列为被告，很可能最终由最高法院裁决。 库克称，特朗普援引的理由是虚假的借口，根本不构成足以将她逐出美联储的"正当理由"。在法庭文件 中，她的律师首次就指控她于2021年获得抵押贷款时，将两处房产欺诈性地列为"主要住所"提出了可能 的辩护理由。 特朗普任命的联邦住房金融局局长比尔·普 ...

Group 1: Oil Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs predicts that oil prices may drop to $50 per barrel by the end of 2026 due to increasing oversupply in the oil market [1][3] - The report indicates that global oil inventories could rise by nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026, with a daily oversupply of 1.8 million barrels expected from Q4 2025 to Q4 2026 [3] Group 2: Impact on U.S. Federal Reserve - The decline in oil prices is expected to significantly lower the energy component of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), potentially accelerating the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1][5] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve are growing, with implications for the U.S. dollar's value and broader economic stability [4][6] Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Market Dynamics - There is an acceleration of southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks, with record net purchases observed in recent days, indicating a strong interest in the market [7][9] - The easing liquidity conditions in Hong Kong, coupled with expectations of U.S. rate cuts, are likely to support the performance of Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and financial sectors [8][9]

Group 1 - The lawsuit filed by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook against President Trump challenges the legality of her removal, highlighting unprecedented scrutiny on the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - Cook's lawsuit argues that allegations of mortgage fraud stem from "document errors" and do not meet the standard for removal as outlined in the Federal Reserve Act, which requires "just cause" [1][2] - The lawsuit emphasizes that the accusations against Cook are politically motivated, aimed at reshaping the Federal Reserve board and pushing for interest rate cuts [1] Group 2 - Trump and officials, including FHFA Director Bill Pulte, accuse Cook of misrepresenting her primary residence in federal mortgage applications, but the lawsuit counters that no evidence of intentional wrongdoing or personal gain has been presented [2] - Pulte's comments suggest that Cook's presence undermines the integrity of the U.S. mortgage market, while legal experts caution that avoiding specifics in such cases is common and may inadvertently support the accusations [2] - The broader concern raised by market analysts is the potential "Trumpification" of the Federal Reserve, with implications for Cook's position and the balance of power within the board if Trump successfully removes her [2]

Group 1 - Nvidia reported Q2 revenue of $46.743 billion, a 56% year-over-year increase, and net profit of $26.422 billion, up 59%, exceeding Wall Street expectations. However, data center revenue fell short of projections. The company approved an additional $60 billion stock buyback and expects Q3 revenue to fluctuate around $54 billion [2] - Cambricon's stock surged 15.73% to 1587.91 CNY, becoming the highest-priced stock in A-shares, surpassing Kweichow Moutai. The company issued a risk warning, stating its stock price has outpaced industry peers and forecasts 2025 revenue between 5 billion to 7 billion CNY without new product launches [2] - The three major A-share indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.14%, Shenzhen Component Index up 2.25%, and ChiNext Index up 3.82%. The STAR 50 Index increased over 7%, reaching a three-year high, driven by strong performance in computing hardware, consumer electronics, and semiconductor sectors [2] Group 2 - The Chinese yuan appreciated against the US dollar, with the central parity rate rising by 45 basis points to 7.1063, the highest since November 7, 2024. Analysts expect the yuan to maintain a stable upward trend due to internal and external factors [3] - Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Mitsubishi Corporation from 9.74% to 10.23% and also raised its holdings in Mitsui & Co. This led to a rise in the stock prices of these trading companies amid a rebound in the Japanese stock market [3] - The Bank of Korea maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.5%, aligning with market expectations. The central bank forecasts GDP growth of 0.9% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026, with inflation rates projected at 2% and 1.9% respectively [3] Group 3 - CITIC Securities reported H1 2025 revenue of 33.039 billion CNY, a 20.44% increase, and net profit of 13.719 billion CNY, up 29.80%. Investment income was a key driver, reaching 20.899 billion CNY, a 126.9% year-over-year increase [4] - US corporate stock buybacks have rapidly exceeded $1 trillion this year, significantly contributing to the rise of indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Major companies like Apple, Google, and Nvidia are participating in this buyback trend [5] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China issued guidelines to promote the satellite communication industry, aiming for a market worth trillions by 2030, with over 10 million users expected [5]

美联储风暴席卷全球：美元信仰崩塌，普通人如何自保？ 华尔街交易员彻夜未眠，东京街头的理发师紧盯屏幕，远隔重洋的投资者们，此刻正被一场由美联储刮起的金融风暴所裹挟。这场风暴的源头，始于美国总 统对美联储理事史无前例的撤换，此举如同撕裂了长期以来维系市场信心的基石——美联储的独立性。 回想过去，美联储的地位曾如同"定海神针"，其主席的每一次发言都牵动着全球经济的神经。美元资产一度是全球避险资金的首选，被视为稳如磐石的"理 财信仰"。然而，如今的美联储，却似乎被套上了总统的"缰绳"，独立性荡然无存。曾经的"理财信仰"岌岌可危，全球市场一片哗然。 而这场风暴的最终承担者，往往是普通投资者。过去被视作"安全区"的美债、美元理财产品，如今已成"割韭菜"的高危地带。你以为买入的是稳妥，却不知 风向转瞬即变。亚洲盘黄金一度冲破3386.27美元/盎司，创下半个月新高，日元甚至成了避险新宠。一句"美元不如囤金豆豆"，已然在普通民众中流传开 来。 全球股市也无一幸免。MSCI最广泛亚太指数开盘下跌0.2%，日经指数跳水1.3%，韩国、上证、恒生指数集体飘绿。欧洲方面，斯托克50、DAX、富时指数 期货同样绿油油一片。投资群里有人 ...

美联储理事Lisa Cook在诉状中警告美国总统特朗普，将她免职会让美国经济将出现"无法弥补的伤 害"。Cook在起诉文件中驳斥特朗普对她涉嫌抵押贷款欺诈的指控，称那仅仅是解雇她、试图掌控美联 储的一个借口而已。Cook希望，美国法官能颁布一份临时禁止令——在官司发生的情况下阻止特朗普 将她免职的决定生效，从而维持美联储的现状、并保护美国公众的利益。 风险提示及免责条款 市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 欧洲央行管委雷恩称，如果美联储的独立性遭到破坏，通胀将不可避免地上升。 ...