市场研究部证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 16 日 国内市场综述 冲高回落 震荡走弱 周一（12 月 15 日）大盘冲高回落，震荡走弱。截至 收盘，上证综指收于 3867.92 点，下跌 0.55%；深成 指收于 13112.09 点，下跌 1.1%；科创 50 下跌 2.22%； 创业板指下跌 1.77%，万得全 A 成交额共 17944 亿元， 较前一日有所下降。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 17 个上涨，其中商 贸零售、非银行金融及农历牧渔涨幅居前，而电子、 通信及计算机则跌幅较大。概念方面，乳业、保险精 选及化学纤维精选等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美股三大指数指小幅收跌，博通跌超 5% 周一（12 月 15 日），美国三大股指小幅收跌，道指 跌 0.09%，标普 500 指数跌 0.16%，纳指跌 0.59%。赛 富时跌近 3%，3M 公司跌近 2%，领跌道指。万得美国 科技七巨头指数跌 0.23%，亚马逊、苹果跌超 1%。芯 片股多数下跌，博通跌超 5%，ARM 跌逾 4%。中概股普 遍下跌，小马智行跌超 5%，百度集团跌近 5%。 新闻精要 1. 《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第（228）期 发布日期：2025-12-16 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 0371-58620083 公司官方微信 1 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/12/16 | 2025/12/15 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,057.00 | 1,061.00 | -4.0 | -0.377 | | | 焦炭 | 1,497.00 | 1,503.50 | -6.50 | -0.432 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,230.00 | 15,200.00 | 30.0 | 0.197 | | | 20号胶 | 12,435.00 | 12,360.00 | 75.0 | 0.607 | | | 塑料 | 6,545.00 | 6,557.00 | -12.0 | -0.183 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic news, and developments across various sectors including futures (energy, metals, black - series, and agricultural products), financial markets (stocks, bonds, foreign exchange), and international news, which can help investors understand the current market situation and potential investment opportunities [5][10][29]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic platinum and palladium futures rose significantly on December 15. Platinum 2606 contract hit the daily limit with a 7% increase, and palladium futures rose 4.73% [5]. - International precious metal futures generally closed up, with COMEX gold rising 0.14% and COMEX silver rising 3.42% [6]. - Crude oil futures declined, with the US oil main contract down 1.32% and Brent crude down 1.16% [7]. - Most London base metals fell, except for copper and aluminum [7]. Important Information Macro - Economic News - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange emphasized maintaining the stable operation of the foreign exchange market and the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate in 2026 [10]. - The Shanghai Arbitration Commission is about to introduce the Shanghai Arbitration Commission Securities and Futures Arbitration Rules [10]. - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) increased 0.1% as of December 15 [11]. - In November, housing prices in first - tier cities continued to decline, and the decline in second - and third - tier cities narrowed [11]. - A Fed official said the current policy stance is too tight, and inflation is expected to ease [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Shandong independent refineries' crude oil arrivals decreased by 58.57% week - on - week in the week ending December 15 [14]. - OPEC expects global energy demand to grow 23% by 2050, with oil remaining the largest single energy source [14]. Metal Futures - Nornickel doubled its nickel surplus forecast for this year and more than doubled the forecast for 2026 [16]. - The group standard for gold trade - in business was officially released [16]. - Guinea started the construction of an alumina plant, accelerating its transformation to downstream industrial processing [16]. - Indonesia's refined tin exports in November reached a two - year high [18]. - LME plans to set and implement position limits on key and related contracts from July 6, 2026 [18]. - Peru's copper, zinc, lead, and tin production increased in October [19]. Black - Series Futures - In early December, the daily output of key steel enterprises showed different trends, with crude steel increasing, and pig iron and steel products decreasing [21]. - Iron ore arrivals at Chinese ports increased from December 8 - 14 [21]. - Global iron ore shipments increased from December 8 - 14 [21]. Agricultural Product Futures - As of early December, the average cotton inventory usage days of surveyed textile enterprises decreased slightly, and the national cotton industrial inventory decreased slightly [24]. - Malaysian palm oil exports from December 1 - 15 decreased compared to the previous month [25][26]. - India's vegetable oil imports in November decreased compared to October, with different trends for different types of oils [26]. - US private exporters reported soybean and corn sales for the 2025/2026 season [26]. - US soybean exports to China increased in the week ending December 11 [26]. Financial Markets Financial - The CSRC outlined key reform directions for the capital market during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [29]. - A - shares declined with reduced trading volume, and different sectors showed different trends [29]. - Hong Kong stocks also fell, and Xiaomi received net buying [29]. - Brokerage business turnover on the dragon and tiger list increased significantly this year [30]. - Institutions' enthusiasm for researching listed companies remained high in December [31]. - A - share cash dividends reached a record high this year [33]. - The Shanghai Arbitration Commission is about to introduce arbitration rules for securities and futures [33]. - HKEX is considering reforms on trading lot size and extending trading hours [33]. - A domestic GPU company will be listed on the A - share market, and another completed HK IPO filing [33]. Industry - China approved the first batch of L3 - level conditionally autonomous driving vehicles for commercial pilots [34]. - Several substances were added to the non - edible substances list [34]. - Some lithium iron phosphate enterprises proposed price increases [36]. - China is promoting 6G development and expects large - scale commercialization by 2035 [36]. - The 27th Harbin Ice and Snow World will open on December 17 [36]. Overseas - Multiple European countries and institutions plan to form a "multinational force" to support Ukraine [37]. - The nomination of the new Fed chairman candidate faces resistance [37]. - Fed officials expressed their views on the economy, inflation, and policy stance [37][38]. - The Bank of Japan may start selling ETFs next month [40]. International Stock Markets - US stocks declined slightly, and European stocks rose [41]. - NASDAQ plans to extend trading hours to 23 hours on weekdays [41]. - iRobot filed for bankruptcy and will be taken over by Yunjing Intelligence [42]. Commodities - Platinum and palladium futures in the domestic market rose sharply on December 15 [43][44]. - ICBC will close personal precious metal trading services for "three - no" customers [44]. - International precious metal futures rose, and crude oil futures fell [44]. - Most London base metals fell, and Goldman Sachs adjusted its copper price forecast [45]. Bonds - The domestic bond market weakened, and US bond yields showed mixed trends [46][47]. - South Korea extended its bond market stabilization plan [47]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [48]. - Argentina will adjust its exchange rate mechanism and implement a foreign exchange reserve accumulation plan [48]. - South Korea's NPS will support the won exchange rate [50]. Upcoming Events - On December 16, there will be 1173 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the Chinese central bank's open market, and several conferences will be held [52]. - New stocks will be listed and a new stock will be available for subscription [52]. - The governor of the Bank of Canada will give a speech [52].

内容概况：中国无线通信系统行业正从规模建设转向质量与效能提升的关键转型期。在5G广泛覆盖的 基础上，行业致力于增强网络能力、降低成本并深化与工业制造、智慧能源等生产领域的融合，产业链 协同创新水平显著提高。市场规模从2020年的1.5万亿元增长至2024年的2.35万亿元，年复合增长率达 11.92%。未来，随着5G-A商用加速和6G研发持续推进，新技术红利将持续释放，进一步巩固其作为数 字经济关键基础设施的地位，为经济社会高质量发展提供核心支撑。 相关上市企业：大富科技（300134）、武汉凡谷（002194）、三维通信（002115）、亨通光电 （600487）、*ST奥维（002231）、吴通控股（300292）、硕贝德（300322）、兆易创新（603986）、 澜起科技（688008）、北京君正（300223）等。 相关企业：中天通信技术有限公司等。 关键词：无线通信系统行业发展历程、无线通信系统行业产业链、射频前端芯片行业市场规模、无线通 信系统行业市场规模、无线通信系统行业发展趋势 一、无线通信系统行业概述 1、定义及组成 无线通信系统是指利用无线电波等无线信号进行信息传输的通信系统。它不需要通 ...

盘前要闻 1、习近平：尽快形成完整内需体系，要建立和完善扩大居民消费的长效机制 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 12月16日出版的《求是》杂志将发表国家主席习近平的重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。文章指出， 实施扩大内需战略，是保持我国经济长期持续健康发展的需要，也是满足人民日益增长的美好生活的需 要。要建立和完善扩大居民消费的长效机制，使居民有稳定收入能消费、没有后顾之忧敢消费、消费环 境优获得感强愿消费。 2、无人驾驶迎密集利好！L3级自动驾驶上路测试，特斯拉启动无安全员Robotaxi路测 类型：行业 情绪影响：正面 近期，无人驾驶国内外密集利好来袭，12月15日，工信部公布首批L3级自动驾驶车型准入许可，公布 的两款车型分别属于重庆长安汽车和北汽蓝谷麦格纳两家公司。海外方面，马斯克上周透露，特斯拉 Robotaxi将在三周内取消安全员。机构称，产业链核心逻辑由"电动化"向"智能化+具身化"拓展。 3、中央经济工作会议后 证监会首场会议点明重点改革方向 类型：宏观 情绪影响：正面 证监会主席吴清近日主持召开会议，传达学习中央经济工作会议精神。会议强调，持续深化资本市场投 融资综合改革，更好助力稳就业、稳企业 ...

来源：国金证券第5小时 申购缴款：江天科技 920121.BJ * 新股上市：N昂瑞微 688790.SH 中签缴款：天溯计量 301449.SZ 中签缴款：锡华科技 603248.SH 中签缴款：天准转债 118062.SH 《求是》杂志发表习近平总书记重要文章《扩大内需是战略之举》。文章指出，扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之 举。实施扩大内需战略，是保持我国经济长期持续健康发展的需要，也是满足人民日益增长的美好生活的需要。要加快补上内需特别是消费短板，使内需 成为拉动经济增长的主动力和稳定锚。 1、中国11月经济"成绩单"出炉。国家统计局公布数据显示，11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，服务业生产指数同比增长4.2%，社会消费 品零售总额同比增长1.3%。1-11月份，全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，其中，制造业投资增长1.9%，房地产开发投资下降15.9%。11月全国城镇调查失 业率持平于5.1%。 2、国家统计局公布11月房价数据，70城房价环比总体下降、同比降幅扩大。二手房价格方面，70城二手房价格全部下跌，其中一线城市降幅扩大0.2个百 分点至1.1 ...

Group 1 - China Mobile officially released the "China Mobile 6G Transmission Technology White Paper" and the "China Mobile 6G Transmission System Prototype 1.0" at the 2025 China Information and Communication Conference, outlining its vision, architecture design, and key technology directions for 6G transmission networks [1] - The prototype successfully validated three core capabilities: intelligent connection driven by business perception, distributed dynamic channel control for high dynamic business scenarios, and multi-dimensional channel collaborative transmission to meet latency coordination requirements [1] - The release of the prototype marks a significant step from theoretical research to system validation, laying a crucial foundation for future technological iterations and industry collaboration [1] Group 2 - The three major telecom operators in China are accelerating 6G technology research, with China Telecom proposing a "6G Universal Intelligent Network" and leading the first 6G billing standard project, while China Unicom focuses on spectrum research and international standard formulation [2] - China has conducted 6G technology trials for four consecutive years, with over 300 key technology reserves formed, and the 6G market in China is expected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan by 2030, becoming the largest 6G market globally [2] - The 6G industry is entering a golden development period with national strategies and local policies working in synergy, as various regions release supportive policies for technology research, standard formulation, and application scenarios [2] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities predicts that 6G will integrate air, space, and sea, along with AI technologies, creating an intelligent ubiquitous network, with significant growth in terminal connections and data traffic expected by 2040 [3] - There are 34 A-share 6G concept stocks, with an average increase of 8.15% since December, and notable gains from companies like Zhenlei Technology and Tongyu Communication [3] - Eight 6G concept stocks have R&D expenses exceeding 10% of their revenue in the first three quarters of this year, with Zhenlei Technology, Zhenyou Technology, and Haige Communication leading in R&D investment ratios [3] Group 4 - Zhenlei Technology reported a revenue of 302 million yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 65.76%, and a net profit of 101 million yuan, up 598.09%, driven by R&D innovation [4] - The company is a core chip supplier for 6G satellite internet and has established significant partnerships with leading research institutions and enterprises [4] - Since the second half of the year, 6G concept stocks have attracted significant institutional attention, with 12 stocks receiving over 10 institutional surveys, including Yiyuan Communication and Tongyu Communication [4]

Core Viewpoint - China Mobile officially released the "China Mobile 6G Transmission Technology White Paper" and the "China Mobile 6G Transmission System Prototype 1.0" at the 2025 China Information and Communication Conference, indicating a significant step towards 6G technology development [1] Group 1: Market Performance - There are 34 6G concept stocks in the A-share market, which have seen an average increase of 8.15% since December [1] - Notable performers include Zhenlei Technology, Tongyu Communication, and Zhenyou Technology, with cumulative increases of 61.18%, 34.61%, and 33.65% respectively [1] Group 2: R&D Investment - Eight 6G concept stocks have R&D expenses exceeding 10% of their operating income in the first three quarters of this year [1] - Leading companies in R&D investment include Zhenlei Technology, Zhenyou Technology, and Haige Communication, with R&D expense ratios of 32.12%, 23.81%, and 21.85% respectively [1] Group 3: Institutional Attention - Since the second half of the year, 6G concept stocks have attracted significant institutional attention, with 12 stocks receiving research from 10 or more institutions [1] - The companies with the highest number of institutional research engagements are Yiyuan Communication, Tongyu Communication, and Jingwang Electronics, with 267, 191, and 98 institutions respectively [1]

Macroeconomic News - The article emphasizes that expanding domestic demand is a strategic move for economic stability and security, not just a temporary measure. It is essential for maintaining long-term healthy economic development and meeting the growing needs of the people [2]. - The Ministry of Commerce and five other departments issued an action plan to promote high-quality development of service outsourcing, aiming to cultivate internationally competitive leading enterprises by 2030 [2]. Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially announced the first batch of L3-level conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits, marking a significant step towards commercial application in designated areas of Beijing and Chongqing [4]. - A price increase trend has emerged among lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode material manufacturers, with some leading companies negotiating price hikes of 2,000 to 3,000 yuan per ton as they prepare for 2026 [6]. Company News - Changchun High-tech announced that its subsidiary signed an exclusive licensing agreement for the GenSci098 injection project, which could yield up to $1.365 billion in milestone payments [9]. - TCL Technology announced that its subsidiary TCL Huaxing plans to acquire a 10.77% stake in Shenzhen Huaxing Semiconductor for 6.045 billion yuan [13]. - The company Huaxiang announced a significant asset restructuring involving the acquisition of 100% equity in Haicheng Ruihai and 80% equity in Electric Investment Ruixiang [10].

影响股市利好与利空消息 1、工业和信息化部15日正式公布我国首批L3级有条件自动驾驶车型准入许可，两款分别适配城市拥 堵、高速路段的车型将在北京、重庆指定区域开展上路试点，标志着我国L3级自动驾驶从测试阶段迈 入商业化应用的关键一步。 2、当地时间12月14日，一名X用户拍摄到一辆特斯拉Model Y在奥斯汀街头行驶的画面，车内似乎空无 一人，甚至没有配备安全监督员。特斯拉首席执行官埃隆·马斯克晚些时候对此回应称："测试正在进行 中，车内没有人。"马斯克上周在一场活动上透露，特斯拉Robotaxi将在三周内取消安全员，实现真正 无人驾驶载客。 3、自12月上旬开始，磷酸铁锂正极材料生产厂商掀起集体提价潮。近日，从部分磷酸铁锂头部企业等 多个渠道了解到，在即将迎来2026年之际，多家磷酸铁锂企业开始和客户商谈价格，一些头部企业提出 了提价诉求，涨幅集中在2000~3000元/吨之间。 4、国家电网公司党组召开会议，会议强调，加快建设新型电力系统和新型能源体系，助力如期实现碳 达峰。 宏观新闻 1、12月16日出版的第24期《求是》杂志将发表中共中央总书记、国家主席、中央军委主席习近平的重 要文章《扩大内需是战略 ...