文 |无言 12月25日，离岸人民币兑美元升破7的整数关口。 这事儿说通俗点，就是咱们手里的人民币，在国际市场上购买力提升了。 以前换1万美元要花7.27万人民币，现在7万就够，直接省下2700块。 本来想这只是个普通的汇率波动，后来发现，这波动背后，有人欢喜有人愁。 受益群体：这些人先享升值红利 最先感受到好处的，得是有跨境消费或资金需求的群体。 准备送孩子出国留学的家长，怕是最有体会。 一年学费4万美元，单看汇率变化，就能省下1万多人民币，这笔钱够买好几台平板电脑了。 海淘爱好者的福利也来了。以前500块的进口护肤品，现在470块就能拿下。 航空公司、造纸厂、化工厂这类企业，常年需要进口原材料或借入美元贷款。 人民币每升值一点，它们的成本就会下降一截。 南方航空因汇率变动，每股收益增加了0.05元，中国国航则减少了2.3亿的汇兑损失。 进口100万美元的航油，现在能省下11万人民币。 这些成本的节省，直接体现在了企业的利润表上。 一台2万的进口手表，价格能便宜1000多。 计划出境游的人更不用说，购物成本直接降低了不少，相当于变相省出了部分机票钱。 企业层面，那些背负美元债务或依赖进口的主体，也吃到了红利 ...

人民币汇率近期突破7.0整数关口，重回"6"时代，引发了经济界的热烈讨论。上次离岸人民币汇率升破7.0，还要追溯到2024年9月。如今，在美元走弱的大 背景下，人民币升值预期渐浓，各界人士纷纷将目光聚焦于人民币持续升值对中国经济的潜在影响，以及它在助力中国迈向发达国家行列过程中可能扮演的 角色。 从微观层面来看，人民币升值对不同收入群体的影响迥异。对于主要依赖国内商品消费的中低收入群体而言，升值带来的实际益处相对有限，因为国内市场 商品供应以本土生产为主，即使部分原材料依赖进口，升值降低的采购成本对终端商品价格的影响也微乎其微。然而，对于消费模式更加多元化，涉及更多 进口商品和跨境消费的高收入群体来说，人民币升值则意味着更低的进口商品购买成本和更强的境外消费能力。例如，购买一辆税前10万美元的进口汽车， 汇率从7降至6，就能省下整整10万元人民币。海外旅游和留学等方面的消费，也将更加轻松划算。 从宏观层面来看，单纯依靠人民币升值来快速提升人均GDP，进而跨越发达国家门槛，并非长久之计。诚然，人民币升值能够直接提升以美元计价的GDP规 模。例如，今年中国GDP总额预计将超过140万亿元人民币，人均GDP为10万 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar is driven by increased foreign exchange settlement demand from export enterprises, creating a positive feedback loop that strengthens the currency [1][2][3]. Group 1: Renminbi Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of December 25, 2025, the Renminbi to US dollar central parity rate was reported at 7.0392, an increase of 79 basis points from the previous trading day, marking the first time since September 2024 that the offshore Renminbi broke the "7" level [1]. - The appreciation of the Renminbi is expected to continue, supported by a weak US dollar index and favorable external conditions for the currency [1][6]. - The increase in foreign exchange settlement demand is attributed to the end-of-year rush from export enterprises, which accelerates the conversion of foreign currency into Renminbi [2][3]. Group 2: Corporate Responses to Currency Fluctuations - Export enterprises are adjusting their foreign exchange management strategies in response to the Renminbi's appreciation, focusing on proactive management rather than passive acceptance of currency fluctuations [2][3]. - Companies are advised to accelerate their foreign exchange settlements and adjust pricing strategies to mitigate the impact of currency appreciation on profit margins [6][7]. - There is a growing emphasis on risk management tools to hedge against currency volatility, with companies encouraged to adopt a "risk-neutral" financial philosophy [7][8]. Group 3: Economic and Policy Context - The Chinese government is expected to implement supportive macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth and employment, which may further bolster the Renminbi's strength [5]. - The overall foreign trade environment is better than anticipated, reducing the necessity for a depreciated Renminbi to stimulate exports, thus creating conditions for moderate appreciation [6]. - The regulatory stance is inclined towards maintaining a stable exchange rate to provide a predictable external environment for businesses [5].

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is largely attributed to the weakening of the dollar due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, rather than a strong performance of the RMB itself [1][4] - The RMB has appreciated approximately 4.5% to 6% since the beginning of the year, while the US dollar index has declined nearly 10%, indicating a relative weakness of the dollar [1][4] - The appreciation of the RMB has mixed implications for different sectors; it benefits importers and students studying abroad by reducing costs, while it poses challenges for export-oriented businesses facing reduced competitiveness [6][9] Group 2 - Export-oriented companies are experiencing pressure as the appreciation of the RMB makes their products more expensive in international markets, potentially leading to a loss of orders and profit margins [6][10] - The end-of-year "settlement tide" drives demand for RMB as export companies convert their dollar earnings into RMB for year-end payments, contributing to the RMB's appreciation [12][10] - Despite the RMB's appreciation against the dollar, it has depreciated against a basket of other currencies, which helps maintain price competitiveness for exports to regions like Europe and Japan [14][10] Group 3 - Market sentiment can amplify the RMB's appreciation, leading to self-reinforcing cycles of investment based on expectations of further appreciation, which could create volatility [15][16] - Financial authorities emphasize the importance of stability in the RMB exchange rate, implementing measures to prevent excessive fluctuations that could disrupt business operations and personal financial plans [15][16] - Experts recommend that businesses and individuals focus on their core operations and manage currency risk through financial instruments, rather than speculating on currency movements [18][19]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB has surged past the 7 mark against the USD, reaching a high of 6.9960, marking its return to the 6 range for the first time since September of last year, driven by year-end corporate foreign exchange settlements and strong economic data from China [2] - The appreciation of the RMB benefits consumers, making overseas purchases and studying abroad cheaper, while it poses challenges for export companies, particularly smaller firms, as their profit margins are squeezed due to lower RMB returns from USD-denominated sales [4] - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate to maintain stability, as the RMB's strength is supported by a robust trade surplus, but future domestic demand and credit conditions could necessitate policy support [4] Group 2 - The weakening of the USD is linked to President Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve and his push for lower interest rates to alleviate the US debt burden, which has led to a decline in the USD index from 110 to below 100 [6][9] - Trump's influence on the Federal Reserve raises concerns about its independence, as he appoints individuals who support his monetary policy agenda, potentially undermining global investor confidence in the USD [8][9] - The European Central Bank, under Lagarde, is seizing the opportunity to challenge the USD's dominance, advocating for the euro's increased role in international trade and financial systems, as the euro's share of global reserves has risen to 20% [11][13] Group 3 - The return of the RMB to the 6 range is part of a broader shift in the global currency landscape, with the weakening USD accelerating de-dollarization efforts and increasing the euro's prominence [13] - The uncertainty surrounding Trump's policies and the European economic landscape suggests that while RMB assets are becoming attractive to foreign investors, companies must adapt to currency fluctuations and enhance product competitiveness [13] - The overall currency dynamics reflect a competition of national strengths, with China's economic resilience and foreign investment inflows supporting a stable RMB, while the central bank will manage volatility to prevent extreme fluctuations [13]

证券日报网讯 12月26日，太阳纸业在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司的境外采购原材料主要为 木浆、木片及化工原料等，目前主要以美元结算为主。根据公司生产经营、实施新项目、实施技术改造 等的需要，需要进口商品木浆、木片等生产原材料，需要采购与项目相关的进口设备，人民币的升值有 益于降低公司对前述进口大宗物资、生产设备等的采购成本；同时，人民币的升值会对公司的产品出口 带来一定负面影响，但目前公司的产品出口占比较小。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

Group 1 - UBS Wealth Management predicts that the Chinese stock market will continue to have upward potential through 2026, driven by advanced manufacturing and technology as new growth engines [1] - The technology sector, which accounts for about half of the MSCI China Index, is becoming increasingly resilient to external shocks and U.S. economic cycles [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index is expected to see a 37% growth in earnings per share by 2026, with approximately 7 trillion RMB in excess household savings likely to flow into the stock market [1] Group 2 - Barclays anticipates that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in July and December of 2026, influenced by the spring wage negotiation cycle [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of wage negotiations as a key factor in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy and its response to the risk of yen depreciation [2] Group 3 - OANDA reports that multiple factors are driving a historic surge in precious metals, with gold potentially reaching $5,000 per ounce and silver $90 per ounce in the coming year [3] - The report attributes the rise to speculative trading, low liquidity at year-end, expectations of long-term Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and increased geopolitical risks [3] - Platinum and palladium prices have surged due to supply constraints and strong industrial demand, with platinum up approximately 165% and palladium over 90% year-to-date [3] Group 4 - CICC suggests focusing on asset trend changes rather than specific gold price predictions, as current gold prices are above short-term valuation models, indicating potential bubbles [4] - The report anticipates that the gold bull market may not end soon, but volatility is expected to increase as prices deviate from fundamental indicators [4] - CICC maintains an optimistic outlook on Chinese assets, emphasizing the benefits of the AI technology wave and ample liquidity, while suggesting a focus on technology growth in the short term [5][6] Group 5 - CITIC Securities highlights the importance of maintaining macro liquidity stability through tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions [6] - The report predicts a 5%-10% increase in the overall A-share market in 2026, with Hong Kong stocks expected to experience a rebound in performance [6] - The outlook for commodities includes expectations for gold to challenge $5,000 per ounce and copper prices to rise to $12,000 per ton due to supply constraints and demand drivers [6] Group 6 - CITIC Securities notes a trend of diminishing focus on quantitative targets by the People's Bank of China, with an emphasis on long-term structural reforms [7] - The report indicates that the central bank's policy may shift towards addressing supply-side issues and reducing financing costs [7] Group 7 - Huatai Securities states that the current appreciation of the RMB is likely to enhance foreign interest in RMB-denominated assets, creating a positive feedback loop for capital inflows [8] - The report suggests that the strengthening of the RMB will continue to support the valuation of both onshore and offshore RMB assets [8] Group 8 - CITIC Jin Investment reports that rising storage costs have begun to impact consumer electronics prices, with several manufacturers increasing product prices by 100-200 RMB [9] - The report indicates that the cost pressures from rising storage prices are likely to lead to a temporary decline in consumer electronics sales [9] Group 9 - Galaxy Securities notes that leading liquor companies are adjusting their strategies for 2026, focusing on maintaining price stability and channel profitability amid cyclical pressures [10] - The report emphasizes the importance of developing new consumer segments and adapting to new consumption trends as part of long-term transformation efforts [10]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the RMB against the USD, crossing the 7.0 mark, signals a significant shift in market dynamics, impacting various sectors and consumer behavior [1][3]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB has experienced a steady rise since hitting a low of 7.3498 in April, culminating in a peak of 6.9965 on December 25, marking a 14-month high [1][3]. - The decline of the USD index, dropping over 8% this year, has diminished the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets, prompting capital to seek new opportunities [3][5]. Capital Flows and Market Reactions - Export companies are accelerating their currency conversion ahead of the year-end, contributing to increased demand for RMB as they prepare for the new year [5]. - There is a noticeable trend of foreign capital returning to the A-share market, particularly in technology, consumer, and financial sectors, with blue-chip stocks gaining favor due to their liquidity and reasonable valuations [5][10]. Stock Market Implications - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to benefit the stock market, with estimates suggesting that a 1% increase in the RMB could enhance A-share returns by approximately 3% [8]. - However, not all sectors will benefit equally; foreign capital is favoring core assets and blue-chip stocks, while industries reliant on imported materials, such as aviation and paper manufacturing, are experiencing cost reductions and improved financial performance [10][12]. Real Estate Market Impact - The direct impact of RMB appreciation on the real estate market is limited, as foreign investment faces regulatory hurdles and the overall market is influenced more by policy and demographic factors [14][16]. - While RMB appreciation may enhance the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, it does not directly drive up property prices, which remain under pressure in major cities [16][17]. Consumer Behavior and Purchasing Power - The appreciation of the RMB enhances purchasing power for consumers, making overseas education, travel, and imported goods more affordable [19][21]. - However, individuals holding USD-denominated assets may face challenges, as currency fluctuations can offset interest earnings, highlighting the importance of considering broader trends in investment decisions [21][23]. Strategic Investment Considerations - Investors are encouraged to diversify their asset allocations rather than concentrating on a single currency or asset type, as this approach mitigates risks associated with currency fluctuations [25]. - The recent RMB appreciation reflects a broader reassessment of risks and opportunities in the global market, indicating a potential shift in capital flows towards Chinese assets [25][27].

长沙晚报掌上长沙12月26日讯（全媒体记者 周丛笑）今天市场冲高回落，沪指放量微涨0.1%，录得8连 阳。截至收盘，沪指涨0.1%，深成指涨0.54%，创业板指涨0.14%。沪深两市成交额2.16万亿元，较上一 个交易日放量2357亿元。 消息面，《广州市扶持游戏电竞产业发展的十八条措施》发布，单个企业每年获得本政策所涉及的财政 扶持资金最高不超过1000万元。四家头部硅片企业联合大幅上调报价，业内普遍反馈，本次硅片涨价主 要是上游硅料涨幅较大所致。国投白银LOF公告，将于12月26日开市起至当日10:30停牌；限制A类基金 份额定期定额投资金额为100元。 行情上，昨天市场延续反弹，三大指数全线飘红，短线情绪持续活跃，全市场再度逾百股涨停或涨超 10%。指数上，沪指迎8连阳，深成指、创业板指探底回升。盘面上，商业航天在连续两日的放量拉升 后，成为当前市场最为核心的热点题材，此外算力硬件方向也始终与指数高度共振。这两大热点核心个 股的资金反馈或对短线情绪起到风向标意义，若能始终维持震荡向上趋势行情，各短线题材仍有望在轮 动中反复活跃。观点仅供参考，投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 长江证券资深投资顾问刘浪表示，25日 ...

同时呢在长端掉期进行了回笼美元，以应对结汇的压力，所以啊也就间接影响到我们大a跳水了。而这 一个动作其实啊也只是起到了放缓人民币的涨势，而不是从根本上改变它原有的趋势，所以反映到我们 盘面上也就是突然跳下水，然后慢慢的再收起来了。至于之后的行情啊我依旧比较看好，不会因为今天 盘中的那么一跳而改变自己的观点。板块方面短期还是看商业航天和人形机器人，中期依旧看好AI、 算力、半导体、有色等方向。 今天中午发生了什么事，大盘突然跳水了，而午后又逐步收了上去。另外之后的行情大家又怎么看呢？ 和讯投顾卢明昊分析，今天早盘市场依旧延续着最近小幅攀升的节奏，就在以为还是老剧本重演的时 候，突然之间大盘直线跳水，由于跳水来的太快，可能有些朋友啊还没有反应过来，等到中午吃饭的时 候啊才看到，那到底是发生了什么事呢？原来啊是因为最近人民币升值过快短短一个月时间里，离岸人 民币对美元将近升值了1.5%左右，从而可能触发了机构交易市场重新购买美元的条件。 ...