| 动性好的50只股票组成, "硬 | 截至午间收盘 | 该指数 | 该指数自2020年 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 科技"龙头特征显著,半导体 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来估值分位 | | 占比超65%,与医疗器械、软 | | | | | 件开发、光伏设备行业合计占 | 1.1% | 170.2倍 97.0% | | | 10002411 | | | | 1月7日早盘，A股三大指数集体上涨，沪指涨0.29%逼近4100点，全市场成交额约1.85万亿元，较上日半天放量超500亿元。板块题材上，存储芯 片、光刻胶、稀土永磁、半导体设备、有色金属、可控核聚变、铜缆高速连接、创新药、旅游及酒店板块涨幅居前，油气开采及服务、钛白粉、 跨境支付、猪肉、军工装备板块跌幅居前。港股走势分化，医药产业链全线走强，科技股集体调整。截至午间收盘，中证A500指数上涨0.3%，沪 深300指数上涨0.03%，创业板指数上涨0.4%，上证科创板50成份指数上涨1.1%，恒生中国企业指数下跌1.1%。 | 沪深300指数由沪深市场中规 | 截至午间收盘 | 该指数 | 该指数自2005年 ...

Abstract 摘要 经济方面：2025年三季度，中国香港GDP同比增长3.8%，较二季度增速提升0.7个百分点，环比增长0.7%。内需方面，消费、投资增速均加快。 2025年 三季度，私人消费开支同比增长2.1%，较2025年二季度增速提升0.2个百分点。2025年三季度，中国香港本地固定资本形成总额同比上升4.3%，较2025年 二季度增速提升2.4个百分点，地产相关投资企稳回升。 外需方面，货物出口增速加快，服务贸易增速放缓。 2025年三季度中国香港货物出口同比增长12.1%，较2025年二季度增速加快0.6个百分点。由于贸易 不确定性下降，对美国出口增速回升。中国香港服务出口同比增长6.3%，较2025年二季度增速降低2.3个百分点，主要由于运输、旅游服务增速回落，而 金融服务保持高增速。 就业方面，失业率有所上升， 消费、地产、制造业相关行业失业率上升较多，而金融业失业率下降。 三季度通胀下降，处于温和 区间。 2025年三季度，中国香港整体消费物价指数同比增长1.1%，较二季度增速回落0.7个百分点。 汇率方面，港元汇率三季度先弱后强，主要受到套息交易影响。 利率方面， 三季度基准利率下调，H ...

1月2日，港股2026年首个交易日迎来开门红。 在科技股领涨下，港股市场走势强劲，三大指数上午收盘涨幅均超过2%。半导体、互联网巨头、家电、汽车等板块纷纷走强。 "港股GPU第一股"壁仞科技今日上市，成为2026年港股市场首只上市新股。壁仞科技早盘高开后，涨幅一度超过100%，上午收盘涨72.86%。 | ( G | 壁仍科技(6082) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 01-02 11:59:59 | | | | | 33.880 | 额 46.6亿 股本 23.96亿 市盈 -32.90 | | | 万得 | | +14.280 +72.86% | 换10.85% 市值 812亿 市净"" -8.23 | | | | | 分时 五日 | HK | 周K | 电子 | | | 盖加 | | 均价: 37.030 | 20 | 成交 | | 42.880 | | 118.78% 卖10 34.060 | | 200(1) | | | | | 34.040 | 600(2) | | | 528 | | 34.020 | 2200(3) | | | 317 ...

1月2日，港股2026年首个交易日迎来开门红。 在科技股领涨下，港股市场走势强劲，三大指数上午收盘涨幅均超过2%。半导体、互联网巨头、家电、汽车等板块纷纷走强。 "港股GPU第一股"壁仞科技今日上市，盘中表现活跃。该股盘初一度大涨近120%，截至午间收盘涨幅有所回落，但仍大涨近73%，总市值突破800亿元。 | ( | 童仍科技(6082) | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 01-02 11:59:59 | | | | | 33.880 | 额 46.6亿 股本 23.96亿 市盈 -32.90 | | | 万得 | | +14.280 +72.86% 换 10.85% 市值 812亿 市净 -8.23 | | | | | | स्त्रीय 五日 | HK | 周K 月K | ■求 | | | 青加 | | 均价: 37.030 | 물디 | 成交 | | 42.880 | | 118.78% 卖10 34.060 | | 200(1) | | | | | 34.040 | 600(2) | | | | | 34.020 | 2200(3) | | | ...

富途证券首席分析师谭智乐表示，尽管面临利率变动、美联储减息周期及HIBOR上升等挑战，对港股 2026年的走势仍然持乐观态度。展望明年，受益于估值的修正及科技行业增长带动下，预测恒生指数 2026年目标为31000点；若宏观经济环境改善并且整体企业盈利收持续增长，乐观情境下目标有望可达 34000点。 2025年港股，尤其恒生指数及恒生科技指数表现优秀，跑赢多个大型国际市场指标，交投量显著增加， 反映大量资金流入，预期明年市况继续保持稳健增长。 谭智乐指，今年香港IPO市场明显回暖，多只大型新股来港引起热潮，带动证券市场表现。今年港股活 跃，恒指显著上升，大宗商品黄金及白银亦表现强势。 ...

Global Market Overview - The global markets experienced a rebound this week after a significant pullback last week, with major indices showing recovery [1][9] - The US stock market remains under pressure due to high valuations and uncertainty surrounding economic policies [1][12] US Market Performance - The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices increased by 2.43%, 3.87%, and 1.35% respectively this week [2][12] - The Nasdaq index has a high P/E ratio of 40.8, indicating potential valuation risks, while the S&P 500 Shiller P/E ratio rose to 38.45, the second highest historically [1][12] - The technology sector within the S&P 500 saw a notable increase of 4.27%, while the energy sector declined by 0.98% [12][16] Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Hong Kong Chinese Enterprises Index rose by 1.43%, 1.03%, and 1.84% respectively this week [4][25] - The Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 1.17%, with the materials sector showing the highest growth at 10.98% [25][28] - The market is expected to continue showing divergence, with high-positioned assets likely to face further corrections while undervalued assets may present opportunities [1][39] Economic Data - In June 2025, the Eurozone PPI year-on-year growth was 0.6%, up from 0.3% previously [40][41] - The Eurozone retail sales index showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3%, improving from a previous decline of -0.3% [40][41] - The US ISM Services PMI for July was reported at 50.1, down from 50.8, indicating a slight contraction in the services sector [48][49]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,825 points, up 326 points or 1.33%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 1.65%, outperforming the broader market for six consecutive trading days [2][3] - The market saw a net inflow of capital from the north, with a net inflow of 5.931 billion HKD on Friday, an increase of 219.7% from the previous day [2] - The overall trading volume on the main board was 238.7 billion HKD, a slight increase of 0.96% compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - All 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices rose, with leading sectors including materials, consumer discretionary, financials, and consumer staples, showing gains between 1.29% and 2.47%, surpassing the Hang Seng Composite Index's increase of 1.23% [3] - Underperforming sectors included utilities, telecommunications, real estate, and conglomerates, with gains ranging from 0.20% to 0.65% [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Anta Sports (2020.HK) - Anta's main brand reported low single-digit growth in revenue for Q2 2025, slightly below expectations, with children's products performing better than adult products [6] - The company is implementing a "lighthouse store plan" to enhance its offline presence while synchronizing online and offline strategies [6] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance Anta's market position in the outdoor apparel segment, leveraging its supply chain and distribution capabilities [7] Group 4: Financial Projections - The report forecasts Anta's EPS for 2025-2027 to be 4.72, 5.26, and 5.88 HKD respectively, with a target price of 113.6 HKD based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong may intervene in the currency market to raise the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate, which could lead to volatility in the capital market [1][2]. Market Dynamics - From May to the present, the Hang Seng Index rose from 22,600 points to a peak of 24,300 points, primarily driven by increased liquidity rather than fundamental improvements [3][4]. - The significant increase in Hong Kong dollar liquidity began in May when the exchange rate reached a high of 7.75, prompting the Monetary Authority to release liquidity to prevent the currency from appreciating further [5][7][11]. Interest Rate Changes - Following the liquidity increase, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) for one month dropped from 3.98% to a low of 0.52%, representing a reduction of over 4% in just one month [13][14]. Future Expectations - As the Hong Kong dollar approaches the lower limit of the peg (7.85), the Monetary Authority may withdraw liquidity, which could pressure the stock market if hot money flows out [15][21]. - The current strategy may depend on the future performance of the US dollar; if it continues to weaken, funds may flow into Hong Kong, supporting the local market [18][20]. Investment Outlook - Despite potential short-term adjustments, the overall outlook for the Hong Kong capital market remains positive due to continued inflows of hot money [22][23]. - The market's performance is influenced more by liquidity and capital flows than by economic fundamentals or valuations [24][25]. Capital Inflows - Three main types of capital are expected to flow into the Hong Kong market: local funds, southbound funds, and foreign investments [26]. - Southbound funds are anticipated to increase due to quality companies seeking to list in Hong Kong and the expectation of a bull market in mainland China [27][28]. - Foreign capital is likely to flow into Hong Kong as geopolitical uncertainties persist, providing opportunities for the local market [29][30]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch in the second half of the year include finance, consumption, technology, and healthcare, with strategies to enter during corrections or to consider stable income-generating assets [31][32].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has benefited from previous overseas liquidity easing, leading to active investments in small and thematic stocks. The market is expected to accommodate 100-200 new AH shares and returning US stocks, supported by policies and liquidity injections [1][2][3] - The Hong Kong government and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) have increased their focus on the capital market, providing a stable foundation for the Hong Kong stock market, allowing it to remain strong even amid external disturbances such as trade wars [1][4][5] Core Industry Directions - Long-term optimism is noted in sectors such as the internet, smart driving, and new consumption. Companies like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold are showing global potential, while AI technology is enhancing valuations for firms like Xiaomi. The innovative drug sector also presents growth opportunities [1][6][7] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include internet giants Tencent and Alibaba, which remain key holdings for many institutions. Xiaomi is highlighted for its strong alpha logic and performance, while new consumption brands like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold are recognized for their growth potential through technological breakthroughs and globalization strategies [1][6][7] Xiaomi's Market Expectations - There is high market anticipation for Xiaomi's new car launch, with expected large sales reaching 250,000 units and monthly sales of 40,000 units. This could significantly impact Xiaomi's stock price positively. The company is viewed favorably for its diversified development in automotive, IoT, mobile, and robotics sectors [1][8][10] Smart Driving Technology - Smart driving technology is advancing, with Chinese companies demonstrating strong competitiveness. The launch of Tesla's Robo TAXI is a notable example. Companies like Li Auto, Pony.ai, WeRide, and Hesai Technology are gaining attention in this field [3][11][12] New Consumption Sector - Despite some recent underperformance from new consumption stocks like Haidilao, the sector remains vibrant. Pop Mart continues to show strong performance, and other companies like Blok are also worth monitoring. The new consumption sector is expected to maintain long-term investment value [1][6][13] Web 3.0 Ecosystem - The Web 3.0 ecosystem is evolving, particularly with the attention on Bitcoin ETFs. Traditional financial institutions are entering the space, and the compliance of stablecoins is expected to create new growth opportunities. Companies like ZhongAn Online are highlighted as potential investments in this area [3][14][17] AI Applications and Opportunities - AI applications are gradually becoming commercialized, with expectations for more applications to emerge in the second half of the year and into 2026. The release of GPT-5 is anticipated to enhance market expectations [1][18] - The AI video sector is also gaining traction, with platforms like Kuaishou showing significant growth in AI-generated content. The potential for AR technology in this space is substantial, with projections for significant revenue increases [1][19]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a decline this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.51% to 3359.90 points, while other indices such as the Shenzhen Composite, ChiNext, Sci-Tech 50, and Northbound 50 dropped by 1.60%, 1.69%, 1.55%, and 2.55% respectively [1] - The decline in A-shares is attributed to both internal and external factors, with positive consumption data released by the National Bureau of Statistics providing slight support to market sentiment [1] - On Wednesday, despite most stocks declining, the index saw a slight increase due to rising bank stocks, influenced by the announcement of eight financial opening measures by the central bank during the "2025 Lujiazui Forum" [1] Group 2 - On Thursday, A-share indices saw an expanded decline, indicating a clear weakening of market technical patterns, while Hong Kong stocks underperformed A-shares amid unfavorable Middle East news [2] - On Friday, A-shares initially rebounded but weakened again in the afternoon, with all major indices recording slight declines, while Hong Kong stocks showed some recovery [2] - In the absence of significant internal and external positive factors, it is speculated that A-shares may continue to trend weakly in the short term, although substantial declines are unlikely, suggesting investors should remain patient and observant for potential turning points [2]