证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 9 日 [Table_Title] 美股估值处于历史次高位，港股走势分化 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:由于上周全球多数市场短期回调幅度较 大，本周全球多数市场出现超跌反弹。经历上周的回调之后， 本周美股三大指数反弹。目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 35.6，市盈率处于偏高位区间；费城半导体指数市盈率上升至 50.9，仍然处于 50 以上的高位区间；美国科技股权重占比较大 的纳斯达克指数的市盈率仍然有 40.8，处于高于 40 的偏高位阶 段，由于美股科技股估值较高存在杀估值的可能性，以及美股 大型科技巨头的新一轮科技看点尚未出现，叠加特朗普时期美 国经济政策的不确定性，美股科技股仍然容易出现调整；纳斯 达克指数、费城半导体指数和 TAMAMA 等美股科技指数仍然 中期维度仍然容易出现承压。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率上升至 38.45，不仅大幅高于历史中位数和平均数，而且处于仅次于互 联网泡沫的历史次高位区间。由于美国经济和贸易政策的不确 定性影响，且 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed resilience with the Hang Seng Index closing at 24,825 points, up 326 points or 1.33%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rising 1.65%, outperforming the broader market for six consecutive trading days [2][3] - The market saw a net inflow of capital from the north, with a net inflow of 5.931 billion HKD on Friday, an increase of 219.7% from the previous day [2] - The overall trading volume on the main board was 238.7 billion HKD, a slight increase of 0.96% compared to the previous trading day [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - All 12 Hang Seng Composite Industry Indices rose, with leading sectors including materials, consumer discretionary, financials, and consumer staples, showing gains between 1.29% and 2.47%, surpassing the Hang Seng Composite Index's increase of 1.23% [3] - Underperforming sectors included utilities, telecommunications, real estate, and conglomerates, with gains ranging from 0.20% to 0.65% [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Anta Sports (2020.HK) - Anta's main brand reported low single-digit growth in revenue for Q2 2025, slightly below expectations, with children's products performing better than adult products [6] - The company is implementing a "lighthouse store plan" to enhance its offline presence while synchronizing online and offline strategies [6] - The acquisition of Jack Wolfskin is expected to enhance Anta's market position in the outdoor apparel segment, leveraging its supply chain and distribution capabilities [7] Group 4: Financial Projections - The report forecasts Anta's EPS for 2025-2027 to be 4.72, 5.26, and 5.88 HKD respectively, with a target price of 113.6 HKD based on a 22x PE ratio for 2025 [7]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong may intervene in the currency market to raise the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate, which could lead to volatility in the capital market [1][2]. Market Dynamics - From May to the present, the Hang Seng Index rose from 22,600 points to a peak of 24,300 points, primarily driven by increased liquidity rather than fundamental improvements [3][4]. - The significant increase in Hong Kong dollar liquidity began in May when the exchange rate reached a high of 7.75, prompting the Monetary Authority to release liquidity to prevent the currency from appreciating further [5][7][11]. Interest Rate Changes - Following the liquidity increase, the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) for one month dropped from 3.98% to a low of 0.52%, representing a reduction of over 4% in just one month [13][14]. Future Expectations - As the Hong Kong dollar approaches the lower limit of the peg (7.85), the Monetary Authority may withdraw liquidity, which could pressure the stock market if hot money flows out [15][21]. - The current strategy may depend on the future performance of the US dollar; if it continues to weaken, funds may flow into Hong Kong, supporting the local market [18][20]. Investment Outlook - Despite potential short-term adjustments, the overall outlook for the Hong Kong capital market remains positive due to continued inflows of hot money [22][23]. - The market's performance is influenced more by liquidity and capital flows than by economic fundamentals or valuations [24][25]. Capital Inflows - Three main types of capital are expected to flow into the Hong Kong market: local funds, southbound funds, and foreign investments [26]. - Southbound funds are anticipated to increase due to quality companies seeking to list in Hong Kong and the expectation of a bull market in mainland China [27][28]. - Foreign capital is likely to flow into Hong Kong as geopolitical uncertainties persist, providing opportunities for the local market [29][30]. Sector Focus - Key sectors to watch in the second half of the year include finance, consumption, technology, and healthcare, with strategies to enter during corrections or to consider stable income-generating assets [31][32].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The Hong Kong stock market has benefited from previous overseas liquidity easing, leading to active investments in small and thematic stocks. The market is expected to accommodate 100-200 new AH shares and returning US stocks, supported by policies and liquidity injections [1][2][3] - The Hong Kong government and the Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) have increased their focus on the capital market, providing a stable foundation for the Hong Kong stock market, allowing it to remain strong even amid external disturbances such as trade wars [1][4][5] Core Industry Directions - Long-term optimism is noted in sectors such as the internet, smart driving, and new consumption. Companies like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold are showing global potential, while AI technology is enhancing valuations for firms like Xiaomi. The innovative drug sector also presents growth opportunities [1][6][7] Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include internet giants Tencent and Alibaba, which remain key holdings for many institutions. Xiaomi is highlighted for its strong alpha logic and performance, while new consumption brands like Pop Mart and Lao Pu Gold are recognized for their growth potential through technological breakthroughs and globalization strategies [1][6][7] Xiaomi's Market Expectations - There is high market anticipation for Xiaomi's new car launch, with expected large sales reaching 250,000 units and monthly sales of 40,000 units. This could significantly impact Xiaomi's stock price positively. The company is viewed favorably for its diversified development in automotive, IoT, mobile, and robotics sectors [1][8][10] Smart Driving Technology - Smart driving technology is advancing, with Chinese companies demonstrating strong competitiveness. The launch of Tesla's Robo TAXI is a notable example. Companies like Li Auto, Pony.ai, WeRide, and Hesai Technology are gaining attention in this field [3][11][12] New Consumption Sector - Despite some recent underperformance from new consumption stocks like Haidilao, the sector remains vibrant. Pop Mart continues to show strong performance, and other companies like Blok are also worth monitoring. The new consumption sector is expected to maintain long-term investment value [1][6][13] Web 3.0 Ecosystem - The Web 3.0 ecosystem is evolving, particularly with the attention on Bitcoin ETFs. Traditional financial institutions are entering the space, and the compliance of stablecoins is expected to create new growth opportunities. Companies like ZhongAn Online are highlighted as potential investments in this area [3][14][17] AI Applications and Opportunities - AI applications are gradually becoming commercialized, with expectations for more applications to emerge in the second half of the year and into 2026. The release of GPT-5 is anticipated to enhance market expectations [1][18] - The AI video sector is also gaining traction, with platforms like Kuaishou showing significant growth in AI-generated content. The potential for AR technology in this space is substantial, with projections for significant revenue increases [1][19]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a decline this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 0.51% to 3359.90 points, while other indices such as the Shenzhen Composite, ChiNext, Sci-Tech 50, and Northbound 50 dropped by 1.60%, 1.69%, 1.55%, and 2.55% respectively [1] - The decline in A-shares is attributed to both internal and external factors, with positive consumption data released by the National Bureau of Statistics providing slight support to market sentiment [1] - On Wednesday, despite most stocks declining, the index saw a slight increase due to rising bank stocks, influenced by the announcement of eight financial opening measures by the central bank during the "2025 Lujiazui Forum" [1] Group 2 - On Thursday, A-share indices saw an expanded decline, indicating a clear weakening of market technical patterns, while Hong Kong stocks underperformed A-shares amid unfavorable Middle East news [2] - On Friday, A-shares initially rebounded but weakened again in the afternoon, with all major indices recording slight declines, while Hong Kong stocks showed some recovery [2] - In the absence of significant internal and external positive factors, it is speculated that A-shares may continue to trend weakly in the short term, although substantial declines are unlikely, suggesting investors should remain patient and observant for potential turning points [2]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a nearly one-sided upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rebounding 400 points since its low in April, and small-cap indices approaching new highs [1][5] - The Hong Kong stock market shows a more significant rebound, particularly in the Hang Seng Medical and Technology indices, indicating a broad-based rally [1][5] - There is a notable rotation in sectors, with healthcare, pharmaceuticals, and pet economy stocks gaining attention, while the white wine sector remains underperforming [3][5] Group 2 - The market is expected to see a new rally, likely driven by a collective rise in sectors such as white wine, securities, and real estate, with a target of returning to 3400 points [5] - The current market environment suggests that as long as investors avoid chasing prices, they will not incur losses, emphasizing the importance of patience and waiting for opportunities to arise [5][3] - The Hong Kong market still presents opportunities, particularly in the Hang Seng Technology and Medical indices, which are at historical lows, suggesting potential for recovery [5][3]