Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the release of October inflation data, the month-on-month PPI unexpectedly turned positive, with non-ferrous metals performing prominently. However, the month-on-month PPI is not expected to continuously exceed expectations, and the rise in non-ferrous metal prices alone is insufficient to drive a significant increase in PPI. The year-on-year recovery of PPI next year is mainly due to the base effect, and the recovery of non-ferrous metal prices alone cannot support the year-on-year PPI to significantly exceed 0 [2]. - The reasons for the unexpected positive month-on-month PPI in October include the continuous deviation of the prediction results of PMI ex-factory prices and purchase prices since August, the lag effect of the recovery of upstream prices in the third quarter due to poor demand, and the support of coal and non-ferrous metals at the industry level. It is also expected that the year-on-year PPI may remain volatile within the year [2]. - Although the weight of non-ferrous related industries in PPI has increased, oil, black metals, and coal still dominate. A 10% increase in the month-on-month price of the non-ferrous metal industry will drive a 0.6 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI, and a 10% increase in the 3-month moving average of copper prices will lead to a 0.135 percentage point recovery in the month-on-month PPI [2]. - Regarding the conditions for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive next year, only in scenarios where the month-on-month PPI remains at 0.1% or follows the seasonal pattern will the year-on-year PPI turn positive in the middle of next year. Based on the assumption of commodity price trends, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in August next year [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Why did the month-on-month PPI exceed expectations? - Since August, the prediction results of PMI ex-factory prices and purchase prices have continuously deviated, and the performance of purchase prices is significantly better than that of ex-factory prices, which led to the deviation of the October prediction results [5]. - Poor demand caused a lag effect in the recovery of upstream prices in the third quarter. From July to September, the month-on-month PPI of production materials showed an obvious recovery trend [5]. - At the industry level, coal and non-ferrous metals supported the unexpected positive month-on-month PPI in October. The coal price increase was driven by anti-involution policies, and the sharp rise in copper prices was due to global supply disruptions and increased demand from AI enterprise capital expenditures [5]. 2. Has the weight of non-ferrous metals in PPI increased? 2.1 From an industry perspective, the proportion of non-ferrous metals has increased, but oil and black metals are still the main contributors - The weight of non-ferrous related industries has increased. Compared with 2020, the revenue share of the non-ferrous metal smelting and processing industry in 2024 increased by 1.24 percentage points to 6.24%. However, since 2020, the industries with the largest contributions have still been oil, black metals, coal, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals [2][11]. - The revenue share of each industry in 2024 did not show obvious structural changes compared with 2020. The top ten industries remained the same, only with slight changes in the ranking order [12]. - The industry concentration has increased, and the industries with a significant increase in proportion are those with high weights. The top five industries with an increase in proportion are the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, power and heat production and supply industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry, and gas production and supply industry [13]. - A 10 percentage point month-on-month increase in the non-ferrous metal industry will drive a 0.6 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI. Assuming the prices of other industries remain unchanged, a moderate recovery in non-ferrous metal prices will drive the year-on-year PPI to turn positive in June next year [16]. 2.2 From the perspective of underlying commodities, the predictive role of copper prices has increased - Using the combination of oil and steel for prediction had good results before 2020, but the prediction effect weakened significantly after 2020 [18]. - Adding copper improved the prediction effect for the period after 2022, and replacing copper with aluminum also improved the prediction effect, but not as effectively as copper [18]. - Adding coal improved the overall prediction effect, and the combination of oil, steel, copper, and coal had the best prediction effect [19]. - A 10% increase in the 3-month moving average of copper prices will drive a 0.135 percentage point increase in the month-on-month PPI. Assuming the prices of oil, steel, and coal remain unchanged, a moderate month-on-month increase in copper prices can support the year-on-year PPI to turn positive in July next year [20]. 3. Conditions for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive 3.1 Even if prices remain unchanged, the year-on-year PPI will be around 0 next year - Assuming the month-on-month PPI remains around 0%, the year-on-year PPI will be difficult to turn positive next year [26]. - Assuming the month-on-month PPI remains at 0.1%, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in June next year [27]. - Assuming the month-on-month PPI follows the seasonal pattern, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in July next year, and by the end of 2026, the year-on-year PPI will recover to around 0.9% [29]. 3.2 From the perspective of anti-involution - One method is to predict each major industry category based on the understanding of anti-involution policies and then estimate the overall month-on-month PPI based on weights. However, this method has two problems: anti-involution does not necessarily lead to price increases, and it only focuses on the supply side while ignoring the demand side [31]. - Another method is to estimate the recovery trend of PPI based on historical experience. Referring to the previous round of supply-side reforms, it took 9 months for the year-on-year PPI to turn positive. Based on this, the year-on-year PPI is expected to turn positive around mid-2026 [32]. 3.3 Based on the price prediction model of oil, steel, copper, and coal - It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will decline slightly to $60 per barrel, the price of rebar will first decline and then rise slightly to 3,400 yuan per ton, the LME copper price will rise moderately to around $11,000 per ton, and the coking coal price will recover moderately to 1,300 yuan per ton. Based on this, the year-on-year PPI will turn positive in August next year [33].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - On November 10, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5820, up 0.97%, and the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot was reported at 5570. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. - On November 10, the ferrosilicon 2601 contract was reported at 5588, up 0.83%, and the Ningxia ferrosilicon spot was reported at 5270. The market should be treated as oscillating, and investors are advised to control risks [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SM主力合约收盘价为5820元/吨，环比上涨60元；SF主力合约收盘价为5588元/吨，环比上涨62元 [2] - SM期货合约持仓量为568951手，环比减少955手；SF期货合约持仓量为350554手，环比减少6769手 [2] - 锰硅前20名净持仓为 - 57191手，环比减少8479手；硅铁前20名净持仓为 - 36432手，环比增加142手 [2] - SM5 - 1月合约价差为58元/吨，环比上涨4元；SF5 - 1月合约价差为66元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - SM仓单为16357张，环比增加1999张；SF仓单为7197张，环比增加1498张 [2] Spot Market - 内蒙古、贵州锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5600元/吨，环比上涨30元；云南锰硅FeMn68Si18价格为5580元/吨，环比无变化 [2] - 内蒙古硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5300元/吨，青海硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5200元/吨，宁夏硅铁FeSi75 - B价格为5270元/吨，环比均无变化 [2] - 锰硅指数均值为5595元/吨，环比下降51元；SM主力合约基差为 - 220元/吨，环比下降30元；SF主力合约基差为 - 318元/吨，环比下降62元 [2] Upstream Situation - 南非矿Mn38块天津港价格为32元/吨度，硅石（98%西北）价格为210元/吨，环比均无变化 [2] - 内蒙古乌海二级冶金焦价格为1250元/吨，兰炭（中料神木）价格为880元/吨，环比均无变化 [2] - 锰矿港口库存为439.7万吨，环比增加8.3万吨 [2] Industry Situation - 锰硅企业开工率为40.24%，环比下降2.75个百分点；硅铁企业开工率为36.26%，环比增加0.18个百分点 [2] - 锰硅供应为201880吨，环比减少5845吨；硅铁供应为114100吨，环比增加900吨 [2] - 锰硅厂家库存为319500吨，环比增加5000吨；硅铁厂家库存为78690吨，环比增加6700吨 [2] - 锰硅全国钢厂库存为15.7天，环比下降0.23天；硅铁全国钢厂库存为15.67天，环比增加0.15天 [2] - 五大钢种锰硅需求为121113吨，环比减少3379吨；五大钢种硅铁需求为19813.7吨，环比减少461.6吨 [2] Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为83.15%，环比增加1.42个百分点；247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为87.79%，环比下降0.8个百分点 [2] - 粗钢产量为7349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨 [2] Industry News - 中国10月CPI超出市场预期同比创下九个月高点，核心CPI同比创20个月最大；PPI环比录得去年11月以来首次上涨，同比跌幅创逾一年最小 [2] - 2024年底全国住房城乡建设工作会议明确将“有力有序推行现房销售”列为2025年重点工作之一，湖南岳阳平江县出台新规成为湖南首个全面推行现房销售的县城 [2] - 伊朗因气候干旱和供水设施老化面临缺水问题，首都德黑兰将实行夜间限水措施 [2] Viewpoint Summary - 锰硅方面，宏观上10月猪肉价格下降影响CPI，PPI同比降环比涨；基本面库存回升快、产量高位回落、成本端进口锰矿石港口库存增加、需求端铁水季节性回落；利润方面内蒙古和宁夏现货利润为负；市场10月主流钢招定价环比下降；技术上日K位于20和60均线之间，震荡运行 [2] - 硅铁方面，宏观上河北多地解除重污染天气应急响应；供需弱平衡、库存中性、兰炭企稳短期成本有支撑；利润方面内蒙古现货利润为负、宁夏现货利润为正；技术上日K位于20和60均线之间，震荡运行 [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the machinery equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The machinery equipment industry continues to benefit from renewal demand and a recovery in overall domestic and international sales [1] - As of September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI is at 49.8%, indicating a slight improvement but still in contraction territory, while the production PMI is at 51.9%, indicating expansion [2][6] - The report highlights a mixed performance in various machinery sales, with excavators and some other equipment showing growth, while tower cranes and aerial work platforms are experiencing declines [26][40][91] Summary by Sections Macroeconomic Trends - In September 2025, China's manufacturing PMI recorded 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points month-on-month, but still in contraction [2][6] - The PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month, while the core CPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to this level in 19 months [11] - Fixed asset investment from January to September 2025 totaled 371,535 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up 3.3% and real estate investment down 14.0% [14] Sales Overview of Chinese Engineering Machinery - From January to September 2025, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [19] - Sales of various types of cranes showed mixed results, with tower cranes down 31.9% and truck-mounted cranes up 5.46% [27][47] - The report notes that sales of loaders reached 93,739 units, up 14.6% year-on-year, while sales of high-altitude work vehicles increased by 41.4% [53][92] Specific Equipment Performance - In September 2025, sales of various types of cranes showed growth in domestic sales, particularly for truck-mounted and crawler cranes, while tower cranes faced a decline [52] - The report indicates that domestic infrastructure investment remains resilient, benefiting related equipment sectors such as road machinery and high-altitude equipment [99] - Forklift sales reached 1,106,406 units from January to September 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14% [101]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The tin market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term tin prices are expected to be strong at high levels. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment has improved. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai tin is 286,560 yuan/ton, up 3,050 yuan; the closing price of the December - January contract for Shanghai tin is - 260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price is 35,820 US dollars/ton, up 60 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai tin is 34,257 lots, up 4,167 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures is - 671 lots, up 423 lots. The LME tin total inventory is 3,035 tons, up 60 tons. The SHFE inventory of tin is 5,992 tons, up 73 tons. The SHFE tin warrant is 5,694 tons, down 109 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 285,800 yuan/ton, up 2,100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 286,370 yuan/ton, up 2,160 yuan. The basis of the main Shanghai tin contract is - 760 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan. The LME tin premium (0 - 3) is 30 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan, and the processing fee is 0.87 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 271,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 275,700 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan. The processing fees of 40% and 60% tin concentrates by Antaike remain unchanged at 10,500 yuan/ton and 6,500 yuan/ton respectively [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 184,850 yuan/ton, up 1,020 yuan. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 110.93 million tons, up 14.48 million tons. The monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 197,600 tons, up 31,000 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - In China, in October, due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and the influence of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year with the increase for the 6th consecutive month. The PPI turned from flat to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, the first increase this year, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics postponed the release of the CPI report and suspended offline data collection. China's exports in October decreased 1.1% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased 1% year - on - year. The retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in China in October decreased 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month, while the retail sales of new energy vehicles increased 7.3% year - on - year and decreased 1.3% month - on - month [3]. 3.7 View Summary - The first batch of restarted mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are in the production ramp - up period. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is limited. The supply from Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season. The export of refined tin from Indonesia is planned to be accelerated in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains low; the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, and the operating rate is low, limiting the production of refined tin. In the demand side, the tin price has been oscillating recently. The downstream in the spot market mainly purchases at low prices, mostly for small - scale replenishment and rigid - demand purchases. The domestic inventory reduction is better than expected, and the LME inventory has increased slightly [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the improvement in October's inflation data, with CPI turning positive at 0.2% and core CPI rising to 1.2%, indicating better-than-expected economic conditions [2][8][16]. Summary by Sections 1. Inflation Data Overview - October's CPI increased to 0.2% year-on-year, surpassing the expected -0.1%, while core CPI rose to 1.2%, the highest since 2022 [2][8]. - PPI narrowed its year-on-year decline from -2.3% to -2.1%, also better than expected [2][8]. 2. Factors Behind CPI Improvement - The rise in CPI is attributed to better-than-expected food prices and a significant increase in gold prices, with food prices rising 0.3% against an expected decline of 0.4% [4][9]. - Gold jewelry prices surged by 10.2%, contributing approximately 0.06 percentage points to CPI [4][9]. 3. PPI Analysis - PPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, marking the first rise this year, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries such as coal and photovoltaic [3][27]. - Input factors, particularly international oil prices, influenced domestic prices, with oil-related sectors experiencing declines while non-ferrous metals saw price increases [10][28]. 4. Implications of the Data - The unexpected improvement in CPI and PPI is expected to elevate next year's tail effects, potentially aiding further recovery in year-on-year readings [13][15]. - Continuous policy support is necessary for sustained CPI improvement, including measures to stimulate consumption and stabilize housing prices [15][16]. 5. Price Change Distribution - The proportion of CPI items experiencing price increases decreased from 38% to 29%, the lowest since 2016, while the year-on-year increase in PPI price-raising industries rose from 6 to 9 [33][34]. - The proportion of production materials experiencing price increases also rose from 30% to 40%, indicating a recovery in various sectors [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - In October 2025, China's CPI and core CPI both rose 0.2% month-on-month, and PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a mild recovery in the inflation level. Due to base effects, the year-on-year CPI data for November is expected to show a significant rebound, while the year-on-year PPI data will remain roughly flat. China's economic activity continues to be in a mild state [5][16][17] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs CPI Analysis Year-on-Year Data - In October, the national consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 0.1% decline and a previous decline of 0.3%. From January to October, the average national consumer price decreased 0.1% compared with the same period of the previous year [2][6] - Food prices in October decreased 2.9% year-on-year, with the previous decrease being 4.4%, showing a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline. Non-food prices rose 0.9% year-on-year, compared with a 0.7% increase in September [2][6] - Core CPI rose 1.2% year-on-year in October, compared with a 1.0% increase in September, and its year-on-year increase has been expanding for the past six months [2][6] - Consumer goods prices decreased 0.2% year-on-year in October, compared with a 0.8% decrease in September. Service prices rose 0.8% year-on-year, compared with a 0.6% increase in September [2][6] Month-on-Month Data - In October, CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% increase in the previous period. Food prices rose 0.3% month-on-month, rising for three consecutive months, with the previous increase being 0.7%. Non-food prices rose 0.2% month-on-month, compared with a 0.1% decrease in the previous period [3][7] - Consumer goods prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a 0.3% increase in the previous period. Affected by the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, service prices rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a 0.3% decrease in September [3][7] - Core CPI rose 0.2% month-on-month in October, compared with a flat level in September [3][7] Influencing Factors - The rapid rise of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index in October this year promoted the month-on-month increase of CPI in October. The increase in agricultural product prices in November compared with the same period last year will help drive the year-on-year increase of CPI in November [9] - Domestic refined oil prices were reduced twice in October. The energy price in November is likely to have a downward impact on the month-on-month CPI [9] PPI Analysis Year-on-Year Data - In October, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased 2.1% year-on-year, against a market expectation of a 2.3% decrease and a previous decrease of 2.3%. From January to October, the average PPI decreased 2.7% compared with the same period of the previous year [3][10] - Production material prices decreased 2.4% year-on-year in October, affecting the overall level of industrial producer prices to decrease by about 1.77 percentage points. Among them, mining industry prices decreased 7.8% year-on-year, raw material industry prices decreased 2.5% year-on-year, and processing industry prices decreased 1.9% year-on-year [10] - The year-on-year decline in ex-factory prices was relatively large in industries such as coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, chemical fiber manufacturing, etc. The year-on-year increase in ex-factory prices was relatively large in industries such as non-ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing [10] Month-on-Month Data - In October, PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month, the first month-on-month positive growth this year, compared with a flat level in the previous period. Production material prices rose 0.1% month-on-month, compared with a flat level in the previous period [3][11] - The month-on-month increase in prices was relatively large in industries such as non-ferrous metal ore mining and dressing, non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, coal mining and washing, etc. The month-on-month decline in prices was relatively large in industries such as oil and gas extraction, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing, chemical fiber manufacturing, etc. [4][12] - In October, the month-on-month change in consumer goods prices was flat, compared with a 0.2% decrease in the previous period. Among them, food prices decreased 0.1% month-on-month, clothing prices decreased 0.1% month-on-month, general daily necessities prices rose 0.7% month-on-month, and durable consumer goods prices decreased 0.3% month-on-month [13] PMI and Service Industry Index - In October, China's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.0%, remaining below the boom-bust line for the seventh consecutive month, compared with 49.8% in the previous period. The new order index in October was 48.8%, compared with 49.7% in the previous period, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand [5][16][17] - In October, the service industry business activity index was 50.2%, compared with 50.1% in the previous month. The service industry sales price index was 47.7%, compared with 47.2% in the previous period. The service industry new order index was 46.0%, compared with 46.7% in the previous period [5][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content was found in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, China's CPI increased both year - on - year and month - on - month, with the core CPI showing continuous growth. The PPI decline narrowed, indicating some improvement in the domestic economic situation. The implementation of policies to expand domestic demand continued to show results [3][41]. - The US government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and although the September inflation data slowed down more than expected, it is difficult to change the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [45][46]. - In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by multiple factors, and is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Situation - **GDP**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with a growth rate 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period in 2024. The actual GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 4.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease from the second quarter [17]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In September 2025, the industrial added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year and 0.64% month - on - month. The high - tech manufacturing industry accelerated its growth, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 9.6% from January to September [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in the first nine months turned negative, at - 0.7%. In September, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 7.1% year - on - year. Real estate investment continued to cool down, while the decline in narrow - sense infrastructure investment narrowed [18]. - **Social Retail Consumption**: In September 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.0% year - on - year. The growth rate of service retail sales from January to September was 5.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value [18]. - **Unemployment Rate**: In September 2025, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [18]. - **Import and Export Data**: In the first three quarters of 2025, China's total goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% year - on - year increase. In September, exports and imports in US dollars increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively, exceeding expectations [7]. 3.2 Financial Situation - **Social Financing Data**: In September 2025, China's new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, and the stock of social financing at the end of September was 437.08 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan [35]. - **Credit Data**: In September 2025, credit increased by 129 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 30 billion yuan. The recovery rhythm of credit demand was uneven, and the structure continued to improve [36]. - **Money Supply**: In September 2025, the M2 - M1 scissors gap reached a new low for the year, at 1.2 percentage points, reflecting positive signals such as increased business activity and recovery of personal investment and consumption demand [35]. 3.3 Price - Related - **CPI**: In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year and month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for the sixth consecutive month. Food and energy prices were still at a low level, but the decline rates narrowed [41]. - **PPI**: In October 2025, the PPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, the first increase this year, and decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with the decline rate narrowing for the third consecutive month [41]. 3.4 Overseas Macro - **US Economy**: In September 2025, the US CPI data slowed down more than expected, mainly affected by the decline in rent prices. The US federal government "shutdown" has a negative impact on the economy, and the Fed may still cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October [45][46]. - **Eurozone Economy**: In October 2025, the Eurozone HICP decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the core HICP remained unchanged [14]. 3.5 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - **RMB Exchange Rate**: In November 2025, the RMB exchange rate showed a stable operation trend, supported by factors such as the recovery of the domestic economic fundamentals, improvement of the international balance of payments, and policy guidance. It is expected to maintain a stable tone in the future [54]. - **Interest Rates**: The report also presented data on various interest rates such as DR007, SHIBOR, LPR, and government bond yields [55][56].

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - October CPI improved to 0.2% YoY, up from -0.3%, exceeding the expected -0.1%[2] - Core CPI rose to 1.2% YoY, the highest since 2022, while PPI narrowed its YoY decline to -2.1% from -2.3%[2] - CPI increased by 0.2% MoM, driven by seasonal food price increases, while energy prices fell due to oil price impacts[2] Group 2: Factors Influencing CPI and PPI - Food prices unexpectedly rose by 0.3% despite a forecasted decline of 0.4%, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to CPI[4] - Gold jewelry prices surged by 10.2%, adding about 0.06 percentage points to CPI; excluding this, core CPI would only show a 0.1% increase[4] - PPI's MoM increase of 0.1% is the first rise this year, influenced by improved supply-demand dynamics in certain industries like coal and photovoltaic[3] Group 3: Economic Implications and Future Outlook - The unexpected improvement in CPI and PPI may elevate next year's tailwind factors, supporting further YoY recovery[6] - Sustained CPI improvement requires policy support, including incentives for consumption and housing market stabilization[6] - PPI's upward momentum needs consolidation to promote broader price increases across industries, with fiscal measures already in place to stabilize raw material prices[6]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, with the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rising by 1.2%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1][3] - Service prices shifted from a decline of 0.3% to an increase of 0.2%, driven by strong travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and tourism prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively [2][3] - Food prices increased by 0.3%, contrasting with a seasonal decline of 0.1%, with significant price rises in fresh vegetables, lamb, fresh fruits, and seafood ranging from 0.5% to 4.3% [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) shifted from flat to an increase of 0.1% month-on-month, marking the first increase of the year, with improvements in supply-demand relationships contributing to price rises in several industries [4][5] - Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 2.1%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points for the third consecutive month, with significant price increases in sectors like photovoltaic equipment manufacturing and coal mining [4][5] - Input factors led to a mixed price trend in domestic non-ferrous metals and oil-related industries, with international metal prices rising and domestic oil and gas extraction prices declining by 2.3% [4][5]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year and month-on-month in October, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year but increased by 0.1% month-on-month, indicating a recovery in the macroeconomic environment [1] - The improvement in CPI and PPI is attributed to effective domestic demand policies and positive changes in supply-demand relationships in certain industries, highlighting the role of policy, structure, and expectations in driving price recovery [1][2] - The rise in CPI reflects a recovery in the consumption market, significantly influenced by the holiday economy during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, which boosted service consumption in travel, accommodation, and tourism [1][2] Group 2 - The core CPI has expanded for six consecutive months, indicating a steady increase in demand for healthcare, home services, and entertainment, reflecting a shift in consumer preferences towards experiential and high-quality products [2] - The positive change in PPI signals a stabilization in the industrial economy, with the month-on-month increase in PPI suggesting a gradual recovery in industrial production demand, which supports CPI stability and enhances corporate production willingness and profitability [2] - The collaborative recovery between upstream and downstream industries strengthens the endogenous growth momentum of the economy, laying a solid foundation for sustained economic improvement [2]