—2025 年 11 月通胀数据点评 频率：每月 ❑ 风险提示：国内政策效果不及预期。 点评报告 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 通胀回升趋势不改 相关报告 1、《新质生产力相关产品出口 增速表现强劲—2025 年 11 月进 出口数据点评》2025-12-09 2、《明年政策积极程度将有所 变化—中央政治局会议解读》 2025-12-08 3、《固定资产投资增速或仍偏 弱 — — 宏 观 经 济 预 测 报 告 （2025 年 11 月）》2025-12-06 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 赵兴举 研究助理 zhaoxingju@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ CPI：11 月 CPI 环比-0.1%，同比+0.7%，CPI 同比大幅上涨主要由食品项贡 献，对 CPI 同比的影响由上月-0.54%转为+0.04%。结构上来看，1）寒潮、 降雨等天气因素导致蔬菜、鲜果市场供应偏紧，叠加运输及保鲜费用等系列成 本增加，共同推动 11 月鲜菜、鲜果价格上涨，叠加去年低基数因素，价格同 ...

Core Viewpoint - The CPI rebound in November is primarily influenced by structural factors, and after excluding these disturbances, both CPI and PPI remain weak [2][8][71] CPI Analysis - In November, the CPI increased by 0.5 percentage points month-on-month to 0.7%, driven by a low base and reduced supply in certain categories, particularly food [2][71] - Food prices showed a significant increase, with fresh vegetables and fruits rising by 21.8% and 2.7% year-on-year, respectively [2][71] - The pork price, heavily impacted by anti-involution trends, remained low, with a year-on-year CPI of -15% [2][71] Core CPI Insights - The core CPI remained stable at 1.2%, with core goods CPI at 1.6%, largely supported by high gold prices, which increased by 52.2% year-on-year [2][72] - Excluding gold jewelry, the remaining core goods CPI fell by 0.1 percentage points to 0.4%, attributed to weakened demand for related products due to subsidy reductions [2][72] Service CPI Trends - The overall service CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.7%, with a notable decline in housing rent CPI due to weak rental demand among youth [3][25][62] - The core service CPI also showed a decline, with significant drops in prices for hotel accommodations and air tickets following the holiday season [3][25][62] PPI Overview - The PPI in November recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, influenced by rising coal prices due to anti-involution trends, which increased by 9.5% [3][73] - However, the overall PPI remains under pressure from weak midstream and downstream prices, which do not fully reflect upstream price increases [3][73] Future Outlook - There is potential for further increases in commodity prices, but the impact of anti-involution on downstream prices may be slow, leading to a moderate recovery in inflation [4][41] - The CPI is expected to see a mild rebound due to low base effects and high gold prices, but constraints from subsidy reductions and rising youth unemployment may limit this rebound [4][41] Regular Tracking - The CPI in November showed a significant contribution from food items, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points to 0.7% [5][50] - Non-food CPI categories, such as household appliances and communication tools, experienced declines [5][55] - The overall service CPI saw a marginal decline, with core service CPI performing worse than seasonal trends [5][62]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core CPI year-on-year remains high at 1.2%, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[7] - In November, the overall CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, supported by food prices and consumption subsidies[7] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 7.2% due to weather factors[8] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[18] - The decline in PPI is influenced by falling international oil prices, while upstream prices for coal and non-ferrous metals have risen[18] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to impact industrial prices, with coal mining prices increasing by 4.1% month-on-month[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The recovery of service CPI is expected to be a key variable for price stabilization in 2026, shifting focus from physical consumption[17] - The ongoing emphasis on service consumption in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and central economic work conference highlights the need for policy support[17] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and potential inadequacies in policy measures[24]

Group 1: Inflation Data Overview - In November 2025, the CPI decreased by 0.1% month-on-month but increased by 0.7% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 1.2% year-on-year[2] - The PPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month but decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, indicating a mixed trend in producer prices[2] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The year-on-year CPI increase of 0.7% is the highest since March 2024, reflecting a 0.5 percentage point increase from October[4] - Food prices turned positive, contributing to the CPI's year-on-year growth, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 7.2% month-on-month and 14.5% year-on-year[5] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, has remained above 1% for three consecutive months, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending[4] Group 3: PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 2.2% is slightly worse than the market expectation of -2.0%, primarily due to a high base effect from the previous year[8] - Upstream industries showed a mixed performance, with coal mining prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month, while oil and gas extraction prices fell by 2.4%[8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The report suggests that the construction of a unified national market will optimize competitive order, making policy a key variable in price movements[10] - The number of breeding sows has dropped to 39.9 million, indicating a potential tightening in pork supply in the second half of 2026, which may support higher pork prices[10]

作者丨冉黎黎 编辑丨包芳鸣 12月10日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，2025年11月份，全国居民消费价格（CPI）同比上涨 0.7%，环比下降0.1%；全国工业生产者出厂价格（PPI）同比下降2.2%，环比上涨0.1%。值 得注意的是， 11月CPI同比上涨0.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.5个百分点，为2024年3月份以来最 高。PPI环比上涨0.1%，连续两个月上涨。 国家统计局城市司首席统计师董莉娟解读称， CPI同比涨幅扩大主要是食品价格由降转涨拉 动。 食品价格由上月下降2.9%转为上涨0.2%，对CPI同比的影响由上月下拉0.54个百分点转 为上拉0.04个百分点。 扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在 1%以上。 另外，PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点， 主要受上年同期对比基 数走高影响。 展望未来，中国民生银行首席经济学家温彬对21世纪经济报道记者表示，随着扩内需等政策措 施发力显效，现代化产业体系加快构建，叠加重点行业产能治理持续推进、市场竞争秩序优 化，物价有望低位温和回升。 （全国居民消费价格涨跌幅 来源：国家统计局） 核心C PI涨幅连续三 ...

Inflation Data Overview - In November 2025, the CPI year-on-year increased to 0.7%, up from 0.2% in the previous month, while the month-on-month change was -0.1%, compared to 0.2% previously[2] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.2%, slightly worse than the previous month's decline of 2.1%, but the month-on-month change remained positive at 0.1%[2] CPI Insights - The CPI's year-on-year increase was supported by fresh vegetables and gold jewelry, with fresh vegetable prices rising by 7.2% month-on-month, significantly higher than the 5-year average of -4.9%[2] - The core CPI remained stable at 1.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month change of -0.1%, slightly better than seasonal expectations[2] PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month growth for two consecutive months indicates a relatively positive trend, despite a slight widening in the year-on-year decline[2] - Key contributors to PPI performance include coal prices rising by 4.1% month-on-month due to seasonal demand, while oil-related industries continued to face downward pressure from international oil prices[3] Market Outlook - The report suggests that if the trend of decreasing breeding sows continues, a turning point in pork prices may be observed in the second half of next year[2] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is expected to provide additional insights on policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and countering internal competition[2]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益点评 gszqdatemark 2025 12 10 年 月 日 固定收益点评 菜价推升 CPI 11 月通胀数据显示，CPI 涨幅扩大，PPI 降幅小幅走阔。11 月 CPI 同比 涨幅扩大 0.5 个百分点至 0.7%，连续两个月上涨且为 2024 年 3 月份以 来最高，CPI 环比季节性也明显高于前两年。PPI 同比降幅小幅扩大 0.1 个 百分点至-2.2%，环比保持 0.1%的增长。 菜价是本月 CPI 回升的主要原因。11 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.7%，上月为上 涨 0.2%，环比下跌 0.1%。其中，食品价格由上月下降 2.9%转为上涨 0.2%，对 CPI 同比的影响由上月下拉 0.54 个百分点转为上拉 0.04 个百 分点。食品中菜价上涨最为明显，受天气因素等影响，鲜菜价格由上月下 降 7.3%转为上涨 14.5%，对 CPI 同比的上拉影响比上月增加约 0.49 个 百分点。由于蔬菜生长周期短，因而难以持续涨价，短期快速上涨之后往 往会由于供给增加而回落。 核心 CPI 平稳，金价影响依然显著。核心 CPI 同比上涨 1.2%，与上月持 平，涨幅连续 3 个 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that consumer prices are recovering, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% but a year-on-year increase of 0.7%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1][2] - The increase in CPI is primarily driven by a turnaround in food prices, which shifted from a decrease of 2.9% in the previous month to an increase of 0.2% in November, contributing positively to the CPI [2][3] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer spending [2][3] Group 2 - The Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month, marking two consecutive months of growth, although the year-on-year decline widened to 2.2% [5][6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline is attributed to a high comparison base from the previous year, and the industrial market remains characterized by weak demand despite some seasonal price increases [6][7] - Looking ahead, the PPI is expected to decline by approximately 0.5% year-on-year in 2026, with a narrowing of the decline due to ongoing policy measures aimed at stabilizing prices and enhancing competition [7]

新华社北京12月10日电 题：CPI同比涨幅扩大 核心CPI继续上涨——透视11月物价数据 新华社记者王雨萧 国家统计局最新发布数据显示，11月份，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）环比略降0.1%，同比上涨 0.7%，扣除食品和能源价格的核心CPI同比上涨1.2%，涨幅连续3个月保持在1%以上。 董莉娟分析，国内部分行业需求季节性增加带动价格上涨。各地"迎峰度冬"开始，煤炭、燃气需求季节 性增加，煤炭开采和洗选业价格环比上涨4.1%，煤炭加工价格上涨3.4%，燃气生产和供应业价格上涨 0.7%。入冬以来，防寒保暖产品进入消费旺季，毛织造加工价格上涨0.6%，羽绒制品加工价格上涨 0.2%。 "PPI同比下降2.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，主要受上年同期对比基数走高影响。"董莉娟说，随 着我国各项宏观政策不断显效，价格呈现积极变化。 综合整治"内卷式"竞争成效显现—— 重点行业产能治理持续推进，市场竞争秩序不断优化，煤炭开采和洗选业、光伏设备及元器件制造、锂 离子电池制造价格同比降幅均已连续多个月收窄；新能源车整车制造价格降幅比上月收窄0.6个百分 点。 新兴产业快速发展，带动相关行业价格同比上涨—— " ...

Group 1 - In November, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, matching expectations, and up from 0.2% in the previous month [1][19] - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 2.0% and a previous decline of 2.1% [1][19] - The rise in CPI was driven by a significant rebound in food prices, while PPI's decline was influenced by high base comparisons from the previous year and ongoing supply-demand structural optimization in certain industries [20][21] Group 2 - The overall improvement in domestic supply-demand relationships is expected to lead to a gradual narrowing of PPI declines, supported by ongoing capacity governance in key industries [20][21] - International commodity prices have generally risen, while domestic demand remains weak, but some industries are experiencing price increases due to improved supply-demand fundamentals [20][21] - The core CPI maintained a high year-on-year growth rate of 1.2%, with non-food prices rising by 0.8%, indicating effective consumer demand policies [20][21] Group 3 - Food prices shifted from a decline of 2.9% last month to an increase of 0.2%, significantly impacting the CPI [20][21] - Energy prices fell by 3.4% year-on-year, contributing to the overall inflationary pressure [20][21] - The service sector saw price increases, with notable rises in household appliances and clothing prices, reflecting the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies [20][21]