Core Viewpoint - The May PPI data in the U.S. showed a mild impact from costs of goods and services, with core PPI figures falling short of expectations, indicating potential price pressures in the second half of the year due to high tariffs and corporate profit margin concerns [1] Group 1: PPI Data Insights - The May PPI data revealed an expansion in profit margins for wholesalers and retailers, particularly in the automotive and machinery sectors, following a decline in April [1] - Year-to-date profit margins have shown fluctuations, highlighting the uncertainty of trade policies on prices and demand [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Analysts are closely monitoring the PPI report as certain components are used to calculate the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE data [1] - Areas of weakness in May included declines in airfare prices, investment management fees, and moderate healthcare costs [1] - The PCE report is expected to be released later this month, which will provide further insights into inflation trends [1]

Core Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the U.S. increased by 2.6% year-on-year in May, aligning with expectations, while the previous value was a 2.4% increase [1] - The core PPI rose by 3% year-on-year in May, which was below the expected 3.1%, and the previous value was also 3.1% [1] - The data indicates that producer price inflation remains moderate due to suppressed costs of goods and services [1] Industry Implications - Economists believe that price pressures will intensify in the second half of the year as companies seek to protect profit margins amid rising costs [1] - The PPI data shows an increase in profit margins for wholesalers and retailers in May, particularly in the automotive and machinery wholesale sectors, following a decline in April [1] - Profit margins have fluctuated monthly this year, highlighting the uncertainty of trade policies on prices and demand [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock index futures are generally flat, with S&P futures turning positive while Nasdaq futures decline by 0.1% [1] - President Trump announced plans to send trade letters to various countries within 1-2 weeks [1] - There is a willingness to extend the trade deadline, but it is deemed unnecessary [1] - A unilateral tariff rate will be established within two weeks [1]

Group 1 - The CPI data is significantly better than market expectations, with both overall and core inflation unexpectedly declining [1] - Core commodity prices are weaker than anticipated, particularly in clothing, while core services also show weakness, with notable declines in rent and owner's equivalent rent [1] - This situation is likely to lead to a cautious steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve as investors begin to factor in more rate cut expectations [1] Group 2 - Trade policies are expected to continue pushing inflation higher, creating significant uncertainty for investors in the coming months [1] - The fixed income market is currently experiencing a brief respite due to the favorable CPI data [1]

Group 1 - Investors are shifting focus from headline-driven tariff risks to macroeconomic data [1] - There is anticipation for concrete evidence that recent trade policies may impact inflation [1]

Market Performance - The US stock market continues its strong upward trend, with all three major indices reaching new highs [1] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 443.13 points, an increase of 1.05%, closing at 42,762.87 points [3] - The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 1.20%, closing at 19,529.95 points, while the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.03%, closing above the key 6,000-point mark at 6,000.36 points [3] - For the week, the S&P 500 Index gained 1.5%, the Dow Jones Index rose by 1.2%, and the Nasdaq Index saw a 2.2% increase [3] Employment Data - The employment report for May exceeded market expectations, with 139,000 new jobs added, surpassing the forecast of 125,000 [4] - The unemployment rate remained steady at 4.2%, alleviating concerns about economic slowdown amid trade policy uncertainties [4] Trade Negotiations - The progress of US-China trade negotiations is a focal point for the market, with investors cautiously optimistic about reaching a trade agreement [4] - Technology stocks performed well, with Apple shares rising by 1.6% and Tesla shares rebounding by 3.8% [4] Technology Stocks - Other major tech stocks also showed strong performance, with Google up by 3.2%, Amazon by 2.7%, Meta by 1.9%, Nvidia by 1.2%, and Microsoft by 0.6%, continuing to set closing historical highs [5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight decline of 0.1%, indicating relatively stable performance for Chinese concept stocks [5] Commodity Market - In the international commodity market, oil prices rebounded due to ongoing wildfires in Alberta, Canada, affecting energy prices [5] - WTI crude oil for the nearest month rose by 1.91%, closing at $64.58 per barrel, while Brent crude oil increased by 1.13%, closing at $66.47 per barrel [5] Gold Prices - International gold prices faced downward pressure, with three-month gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange dropping by 1.3% to $3,330.70 per ounce [6] - A stronger US dollar has exerted pressure on precious metal prices [6]

Group 1 - The core event indicates that the May CPI may see a rebound due to tariff impacts [2] - Tariffs are identified as the main reason for the inflation rebound, with the Federal Reserve adopting a cautious policy stance [3] - The trade policy direction is a key variable influencing future economic conditions [3] Group 2 - The April CPI review shows a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, raising expectations for interest rate cuts [4] - The May CPI is expected to accelerate to a year-on-year growth of 2.4%, primarily driven by tariffs raising prices of goods such as clothing, furniture, and auto parts [4] - Core CPI is projected to grow at a month-on-month rate of 0.3%, with year-on-year growth remaining at 2.8%, despite some service sector inflation easing [4] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley warns that the cost pressures from tariffs will become evident in May and peak in June [4] - Walmart executives have indicated that consumers will start feeling price increases from the end of May, with more noticeable effects in June [4] - If tariffs persist, Wells Fargo anticipates that core CPI growth will accelerate in the second half of the year, potentially reaching 3.3% year-on-year in Q4 [4] Group 4 - Other policy factors such as tightened immigration policies, deregulation, and tax cuts may also contribute to rising prices [4] - Federal Reserve officials believe the impact of tariffs has not fully manifested, necessitating more data to assess economic direction [4] - The current policy focus is more on inflation risks rather than economic growth slowdown, as the job market remains robust [4] Group 5 - Market expectations suggest that investors anticipate two interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, in September and December, contingent on CPI data and trade policy developments [4] - If the U.S. government reaches agreements with trade partners to ease tariff conflicts, inflationary pressures may alleviate, creating conditions for rate cuts [4] - Conversely, if tariffs continue, inflation may rise further, compelling the Federal Reserve to adjust its policy [4] Group 6 - The May CPI data is set to be released on June 11, which will validate whether inflation rebounds as expected [4] - The Federal Reserve's meeting on June 12 will be crucial for observing the interest rate dot plot and economic outlook to determine the policy path [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a forward - looking analysis of various futures contracts on June 9, 2025, including their expected trends (such as strong or weak oscillations) and corresponding support and resistance levels. It also presents macro - economic information and recent trends in international and domestic financial markets, which influence the futures market [2][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be strongly oscillating on June 9. For example, IF2506 has resistance at 3863 and 3879 points, support at 3848 and 3835 points; IH2506 has resistance at 2689 and 2699 points, support at 2664 and 2653 points; IC2506 has resistance at 5749 and 5790 points, support at 5700 and 5671 points; IM2506 has resistance at 6168 and 6200 points, support at 6060 and 6030 points [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to be strongly oscillating on June 9. T2509 has resistance at 109.00 and 109.12 yuan, support at 108.90 and 108.79 yuan; TL2509 has resistance at 120.0 and 120.3 yuan, support at 119.6 and 119.5 yuan [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold futures AU2508 is likely to be weakly oscillating on June 9, with support at 772.6 and 766.7 yuan/gram, resistance at 783.4 and 788.0 yuan/gram. Silver futures AG2508 is likely to have a wide - range oscillation and may reach new highs, with support at 8750 and 8700 yuan/kg, resistance at 8880 and 8950 yuan/kg [2][3]. - **Base Metals Futures**: Most base metals futures (such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc.) are expected to be weakly oscillating on June 9, while nickel futures NI2507 is expected to be strongly oscillating [3][4]. - **Building Materials and Chemicals Futures**: Glass, soda ash, PTA, PVC, and methanol futures are likely to be strongly oscillating on June 9, while steel - related futures (such as rebar and hot - rolled coil) are expected to be weakly oscillating [6][7]. - **Energy Futures**: Crude oil futures SC2507 is expected to be strongly oscillating on June 9, with resistance at 477 and 489 yuan/barrel, support at 466 and 463 yuan/barrel [6]. - **Agricultural Futures**: Soybean meal futures M2509 is expected to be consolidating, while soybean oil, palm oil futures are likely to be strongly oscillating on June 9, and natural rubber futures RU2509 is expected to be weakly oscillating [7]. - **Shipping Futures**: The container shipping index (European line) futures EC2508 is expected to be weakly oscillating on June 9, with support at 1988 and 1928 points, resistance at 2100 and 2199 points [8]. 2. Macro - economic Information - **International Relations**: China - Canada and China - UK have cooperation and exchange plans. China is promoting cooperation in various fields with other countries and strengthening communication on export control issues [9]. - **Economic Data**: China's foreign exchange reserves increased in May, and gold reserves have been increasing for 7 consecutive months. The global manufacturing PMI in May was 49.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with different regional performances [10][18]. - **Policy and Regulation**: The State Council SASAC issued a management method for central enterprise development plans, and the Ministry of Finance announced its 2025 legislative work plan [11][12]. - **Stock Market**: On June 6, A - shares were narrowly sorted, and overseas giants are bullish on Chinese stocks. The US and European stock markets had different performances, affected by factors such as employment data [23][24][25]. 3. Commodity Futures - related Information - **Precious Metals**: On June 6, COMEX gold futures fell 1.31%, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.91%. The prices were affected by factors such as the US labor market and geopolitical risks [18]. - **Crude Oil**: On June 6, international oil prices rose, with WTI crude oil rising 2.21% and Brent crude oil rising 2%. The increase was driven by multiple factors such as Sino - US trade relations and geopolitical tensions [19]. - **Base Metals**: On June 6, London base metals closed lower, affected by global macro - economic conditions and Fed policy adjustments [19]. - **Exchange Rates**: On June 6, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down 9 basis points, and the US dollar index rose 0.47% [19][20].

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - In May, the implied probability of a U.S. recession dropped from 63% at the end of April to 29% by June 6, indicating improved market sentiment[1] - The Federal Reserve's implied rate cut expectations decreased from 4.1 times to 2.2 times, reflecting a more optimistic outlook[1] - U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, with the 10-year yield increasing by 34 basis points to 4.51% due to concerns over fiscal sustainability and a rapid rise in Japanese bond yields[1][19] Group 2: Domestic Economic Developments - The domestic economy is transitioning from "old forces" to "new forces," with signs of slowing recovery in May, as retail sales growth fell to 5.1%[2][32] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate increased to 12.9% in April, providing strong support for the economy[2][46] - A series of financial policies were announced on May 7, including a surprise reserve requirement ratio cut, aimed at stabilizing market confidence[2][46] Group 3: Trade and Policy Uncertainties - The U.S. is facing uncertainties regarding tariff policies and tax reforms, with key decisions expected around mid-June[3] - The second round of U.S.-China trade negotiations is set to begin on June 9, focusing on tariff corridors and export mechanisms[4] - The potential adjustment of the fiscal budget by the National People's Congress in June is a critical area to watch for its impact on economic support[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The protein meal market shows a bullish sentiment. The domestic soybean meal market oscillated and closed higher, influenced by the US trade policy and weather. The domestic rapeseed meal market also followed a similar trend. The soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate faster as the domestic oil mills' operating rate remains high [6]. - The oil market presents a differentiated trend. Internationally, the US soybean oil oscillated weakly, while the Malaysian palm oil oscillated higher. Domestically, rapeseed oil declined significantly, palm oil followed the Malaysian palm oil with a first - rising - then - falling trend, and soybean oil first declined and then rose. The differentiated market may continue [72]. - In the future, for protein meals, weather speculation in the US soybean market may heat up, and the domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster. For oils, the upcoming MPOB report is crucial, and the market will focus on the export situation in June [134]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Market Review - CBOT soybeans first declined and then rose this week. The US trade policy changes and geopolitical factors caused significant market fluctuations. The domestic soybean meal market also oscillated and closed higher, with the futures price breaking through 3000 on Friday [6]. 3.1.2 US Soybean Export - As of the week ending May 29, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 268,343 tons, in line with expectations. The cumulative export inspection volume this crop year reached 44,608,089 tons, higher than the same period last year [11]. 3.1.3 US Soybean Planting Progress - As of June 1, the US soybean planting was 84% complete, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. The first - rating report showed a 67% good - to - excellent rate [24]. 3.1.4 North American Weather - At the end of the month, storms moved south, and wildfire smoke affected air quality in the north - central US. An early - season heatwave hit the west, and temperature differences were significant across regions [29]. 3.1.5 Domestic and International Oilseed Markets - The estimated 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production was revised up by 1.3 million tons to 169 million tons. Canada's spring rapeseed planting progress accelerated. The global oilseed market is expected to have production and price changes in 2025/26 [36][37]. 3.1.6 Global Trade Pattern Changes - There were frequent changes in the US trade policy, including tariff adjustments and trade talks. The EU - Ukraine trade policy changed, and the US was promoting more agricultural product exports [40][41]. 3.1.7 Soybean Inventory and Profit - The domestic spot and futures soybean crushing margins continued to decline, showing losses. The port soybean inventory decreased, and the theoretical inventory at the end of next week is expected to be 5.04 million tons [48]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal Inventory and Consumption - The domestic oil mills' operating rate increased to 65.98%, and the soybean meal inventory reached 306,000 tons, a significant increase. The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 22nd week was 1.8367 million tons [56][59]. 3.1.9 Rapeseed Meal Inventory and Consumption - The domestic rapeseed oil mills' operating rate decreased to 17.61%, and the rapeseed meal inventory decreased to 20,000 tons, while the contract volume increased significantly [65]. 3.2 Oil Market Analysis 3.2.1 Market Review - Internationally, the US soybean oil oscillated weakly, and the Malaysian palm oil oscillated higher. Domestically, rapeseed oil declined significantly, palm oil followed the Malaysian palm oil with a first - rising - then - falling trend, and soybean oil first declined and then rose [72]. 3.2.2 International Oil Information - In March 2025, the US used 832 million pounds of soybean oil for biofuel production, a significant increase from February. Indonesia's palm oil export and production increased in March, and the inventory decreased. The global vegetable oil market may face a shortage [75][76][77]. 3.2.3 Southeast Asian Weather - The southwest monsoon brought heavy rainfall to Thailand and surrounding areas. Malaysia and Indonesia also had widespread showers, benefiting the oil palm areas [83]. 3.2.4 Domestic Oil Inventory - As of the 22nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.0706 million tons, an increase of 3.57% week - on - week. The soybean oil inventory increased, the palm oil inventory increased slightly, and the rapeseed oil inventory decreased slightly [93]. 3.2.5 Oil Basis Analysis - The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends, and the spreads between different contracts also changed [100][103][106]. 3.2.6 Oil Futures Spread and Arbitrage - The spreads between different oil futures contracts and the arbitrage relationships between oil and meal futures showed certain trends. For example, the oil - to - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseeds continued to decline [110][113]. 3.3后市展望 3.3.1 Technical Analysis - For soybean meal, the short - term indicators are bullish, while the medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined. For rapeseed meal, all indicators are intertwined. For soybean oil, the short - term indicators are intertwined, and the medium - and long - term indicators are bearish. For palm oil, all indicators are intertwined. For rapeseed oil, the short - term indicators are bearish, and the medium - and long - term indicators are intertwined [133]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Analysis - Protein meal: Internationally, there may be weather speculation in the US soybean market. Domestically, the soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and the cost - driven effect of rapeseed meal is prominent. - Oils: The upcoming MPOB report is crucial. If the inventory is in line with expectations, the market will focus on the June export situation. The domestic oil market follows the international market, with policy impacts on soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and the palm oil market awaits further report guidance [134].