德国政府发言人5月31日发表声明称，德国总理默茨将于下周四(6月5日)访问华盛顿，与美国总统特朗 普举行"首次"会晤。声明表示，此次会晤议题将包括俄乌冲突、中东局势及贸易政策。据一名高级官员 透露，当天午餐会后，两位领导人计划在默茨启程返回柏林前在白宫进行新闻发布会。报道提到，鉴于 乌克兰总统泽连斯基与南非总统拉马福萨此前在白宫会晤期间均遭特朗普公开抨击，德国官员担忧，默 茨也会可能遭遇类似对待。为缩小双方分歧，默茨已表明愿意满足特朗普提出的部分要求，其中包括承 诺在未来几年内将德国的防务开支提高至国内生产总值5%。此前，特朗普2月28日与到访白宫的泽连斯 基在媒体前爆发激烈争吵，泽连斯基提前离开白宫。5月21日，特朗普在白宫会见到访的拉马福萨时突 然展示一些视频和剪报，指责南非正出现"针对白人的种族屠杀"。拉马福萨当场否认，并指出特朗普所 谓南非白人正逃离暴力和"种族主义"法律的说法站不住脚。(环球网) ...

全球贸易战硝烟再起之际，华尔街金融圈一个简单的四字缩写—"TACO"（Trump Always Chickens Out，意为"特朗普总是临阵退缩"）刺痛了美国总统的神 经，并可能引发更加剧烈且不可预测的市场波动。 5月以来，贸易政策的不确定性已从4月初的高点大幅下滑，但随着各种关税和限制政策重返头条，不确定性再度回升。 特朗普的贸易政策一直呈现出摇摆不定的特点。仅在过去一周，他就威胁对欧盟实施50%的关税，据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月23日，美国总统特朗普在社 交媒体上表示，建议自6月1日起对欧盟征收50%的关税。而随后又延长了实施期限。 "TACO"为何会点燃特朗普的怒火？不仅是语言，更是面子 "TACO"这个缩写最早由《金融时报》的Robert Armstrong于5月2日提出，用以概括特朗普在关税政策上反复无常的模式——先是抛出天价威胁，随后在市场 压力或谈判妥协下退让。 Armstrong指出，这种模式已成为市场规律：特朗普的关税威胁往往导致股价下挫，但当他政策转向时，市场又会迅速反弹。华尔街很快将其内化，交易员甚 至将"TACO"作为交易策略的一部分，押注总统的"临阵退缩"。 短短几周内，"TAC ...

Group 1: Trade Policy Uncertainty - The Trump administration's potential increase of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% raises trade policy uncertainty [1][8] - The Oxford Economics economist Edward Allenby indicates that the courts are playing a larger role in determining tariff levels, which may further exacerbate trade policy uncertainty [1] Group 2: US-UK Economic Prosperity Agreement - The US and UK reached a non-legally binding "Economic Prosperity Agreement" (EPD) on May 8, which has raised concerns among international law experts regarding its terminology [3] - The EPD does not eliminate reciprocal tariffs but lowers tariffs on certain industries such as automobiles, steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals [3] Group 3: US-China Trade Negotiations - A joint statement from the US and China on May 12 outlines mutual commitments to cancel and modify tariffs, with the US agreeing to eliminate 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods [4] - China will also suspend or cancel non-tariff retaliatory measures against US goods [4] Group 4: Impact of Legal Challenges - The US International Trade Court ruled that Trump overstepped his authority regarding global tariffs, but the appeals court temporarily stayed this ruling, allowing tariffs to remain in effect [7] - The ongoing legal battles between the Trump administration and US federal courts are influencing the progress of international negotiations [5][7] Group 5: Global Trade Dynamics - Countries like Japan, India, and South Korea are reassessing their negotiation strategies with the US following the suspension of tariffs on China [6] - India's plan to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods worth $1.91 billion indicates a shift in its trade stance under Prime Minister Modi [6]

Core Viewpoint - The analysis suggests that the Canadian economy's 2.2% GDP growth in the first quarter does not indicate positive developments in the new tariff era, and it is insufficient to compel the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates on June 4 [1] Economic Growth Analysis - The 2.2% GDP growth was primarily driven by pre-tariff effects on exports and inventory accumulation, while domestic demand remains weak [1] - Continuous monitoring of second-quarter data is necessary to determine if there is further deterioration in domestic demand [1] Interest Rate Outlook - The analyst expects the Bank of Canada to maintain a "dovish hold" policy but anticipates potential rate cuts in July, October, and December if signs of economic weakness persist [1] - If consumer spending and investment do not improve, combined with trade policy uncertainties, the central bank may need to implement multiple rate cuts to stimulate the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer confidence index in the U.S. for May remained stable compared to April, ending a four-month decline, influenced by temporary tariff suspensions that boosted optimism [1] Group 1: Consumer Confidence - The consumer confidence index for May was roughly flat compared to April, marking the end of a four-month downward trend [1] - Initial data in early May indicated a decline in confidence, but a recovery was observed in the latter half of the month due to the temporary suspension of certain tariffs [1] - Consumers showed improved expectations regarding the business environment after mid-May, likely a direct result of adjustments in trade policy [1] Group 2: Financial Outlook - Despite the positive changes in consumer confidence, overall income stagnation led to a decrease in satisfaction with personal financial situations, offsetting the optimistic trends [1] - Generally, consumers do not perceive the economic outlook as worse than the previous month, yet they maintain a high level of concern about the future [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.30」 沪铜市场周报 供给充足需求暂稳，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线先涨后跌，周线涨跌幅为-0.24%，振幅1.41%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价77600元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，由于贸易政策、移民政策及财政政策等多方面的不确定性， 宽松政策暂停期可能更长，美联储需等待形势更明朗后才能做出决策。国内方面，国财政部：去年四季度以来，中国政府 实施一揽子宏观经济调控政策，经济指标回升向好，市场预期和信心稳定，债务中长期可持续性增强。基本面上，铜精矿 端加工费持续回落，国际铜精矿供应仍维持紧张局面，但国内方面，铜精矿港口库存较为充足，加之对美贸易关系缓和后， 美国废铜进口有望重新开启，原料替代品有所增加。供给方面，在国内原材料及替代品相对充足的背景下 ...

Group 1: Economic Indicators and Trends - The US economy experienced a contraction in the first quarter, marking the first negative growth in three years, complicating interest rate outlooks [1] - Australia's retail sales in April fell by 0.1% month-on-month, below the expected growth of 0.3%, indicating ongoing consumer weakness [2] - Retail sales in Australia for April reached AUD 37.2 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 3.8%, reflecting a decline in clothing retail due to unseasonably warm weather [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The San Francisco Fed President indicated the possibility of two rate cuts within the year, contingent on ensuring inflation returns to the 2% target [1] - The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) has lowered its consumption expectations for the year but remains hopeful for a combination effect from tax cuts, easing inflation, and lower borrowing costs [2] - Market expectations suggest a 60% probability of a rate cut at the RBA's July meeting, with analysts anticipating three rate cuts within the year, bringing the cash rate to a neutral level of 3.10% [3] Group 3: Currency Movements - The Australian dollar fell 0.3% against the US dollar to 0.6424 following the retail sales data release, with a cumulative decline of over 1% for the week [3] - The New Zealand dollar also dropped 0.3% against the US dollar, maintaining a recent trading range of 0.5847 to 0.6031 [3] - The New Zealand Reserve Bank cut rates to 3.25% but did not signal further easing, providing temporary support for the New Zealand dollar [4]

Group 1 - The meeting between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell did not reach a consensus on interest rate policy, with both parties seemingly speaking past each other [1] - Trump continues to pressure Powell to lower interest rates, arguing that the Fed's refusal puts the U.S. at an economic disadvantage [1] - Powell emphasized that future actions will depend on economic data and will be based on non-political analysis [1] Group 2 - The meeting was the first face-to-face discussion between Trump and Powell since the latter's appointment, highlighting the ongoing tension between the White House and the Fed [2] - Economists suggest that Trump's public pressure on the Fed may be counterproductive, as it could remind markets of the political risks faced by the central bank [1][2] - The current federal funds rate is maintained in the range of 4.25%-4.5%, with expectations that rates will remain stable until the impact of Trump's trade policies becomes clearer [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to reassess the declining attractiveness of U.S. assets and its implications for financial stability both domestically and internationally [1][2] - Recent market trends indicate a noticeable decrease in the safe-haven demand for U.S. assets during periods of stress, raising concerns among investors regarding the handling of U.S. assets [1] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes highlighted that the persistent shift in the correlation of U.S. assets and the decline in their safe-haven status could have long-term economic impacts [1] Group 2 - The sharp turn in trade policy is reshaping global supply chains and amplifying corporate financial vulnerabilities, making it increasingly critical to understand the intersection of corporate financial health and international trade exposure [2] - The imposition of tariffs has introduced significant uncertainty, which may suppress economic activity and potentially increase inflation [2]

瑞银全球财富管理公司的Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi：我们预计随着贸易和财政政策相关的新闻不断出 现，市场将继续进一步波动。 我们仍预期美股在未来12个月将会上涨，但今年近期内的涨幅可能较为有限。 ...