中美博弈下的资本转向：长和港口交易风波背后的深层逻辑 转机出现在中美联合声明发布的时刻。两国宣布阶段性暂停部分高关税政策，关税水平回溯至4 月2 日 之前，这不仅是中国在经贸谈判中斩获的重要成果，更标志着中国在国际话语权与战略主动权上的重大 突破。美国施压策略的降温，中国对外博弈态势的扭转，成为改变长期决策的关键变量。公告发布后， 舆论场上关于"表忠心""终于醒悟"的讨论不绝于耳，但拨开表象审视本质，这场态度的180 度大转弯， 与其说是"良心发现"，不如说是资本在局势变化下的现实选择。 有人将长和的转变解读为"识时务者为俊杰"，但在国家主权与发展安全的大是大非面前，资本的"识时 务"不应是"见风使舵"的投机，更不能是"等风来"的侥幸。不妨做个假设：若中美博弈形势未发生反 转，若中国未能在谈判中赢得主动，长和是否还会保持沉默、继续推进交易？若没有反垄断审查的利剑 高悬，没有高层的严厉批评，这家商业巨头是否会无视风险一意孤行？答案不言而喻。 商人逐利本是市场规律，但在涉及国家安全、民族利益的重大问题上，企业家肩负的绝不仅是经济责 任，更有沉甸甸的政治责任与历史使命。港澳资本依托国家政策红利与内地市场发展壮大，在 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding geopolitical dynamics in the context of mergers and acquisitions (M&A), particularly amid the complexities of U.S.-China relations and the evolving regulatory landscape [1][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The current geopolitical climate is characterized by a deep decoupling of technology chains between the U.S. and China, creating significant challenges for companies looking to engage in cross-border M&A [1][4]. - Geopolitical concerns have transformed M&A from a purely financial exercise into a complex negotiation involving compliance, regulatory hurdles, and political considerations [4][5]. Group 2: M&A Strategies - Companies are increasingly required to design M&A structures that incorporate "geopolitical risk assessments" and "compliance mechanisms" to navigate the new regulatory environment effectively [5][6]. - The traditional M&A logic focused on pricing is no longer sufficient; firms must now implement multi-layered strategies, including special purpose vehicles (SPVs) and compliance clauses, to mitigate risks [5][6]. Group 3: Role of Goheal - Goheal has emerged as a key player in this landscape, evolving from a transactional facilitator to a strategic advisor that helps companies navigate geopolitical risks in M&A [12][14]. - The firm emphasizes the need for a proactive approach to M&A, advocating for "planning ahead, structural innovation, dynamic adjustments, and mandatory compliance" as essential strategies for success [14]. Group 4: Internal Corporate Changes - Companies are establishing "International Affairs Committees" and "Risk Monitoring Groups" to incorporate geopolitical considerations into their strategic planning [7][8]. - The role of CFOs is shifting towards understanding geopolitical risks, making them more valuable than traditional financial expertise in the current M&A environment [8][10]. Group 5: Operational Adjustments - Companies pursuing inbound investments are adopting localized operational strategies to ensure compliance with regulatory frameworks, such as data processing within national borders and independent R&D [9][10]. - This approach is not seen as a compromise but rather as a necessary adaptation to ensure long-term viability in a volatile geopolitical landscape [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ka-shing's Cheung Kong Group has responded to the controversy surrounding its port transaction, emphasizing that the $22.8 billion deal involving 43 global ports will comply with legal and regulatory requirements [3][12]. Group 1: Company Response - Cheung Kong Group announced that details of the port transaction, originally set to be disclosed at the shareholder meeting on May 22, were released early due to intense inquiries from shareholders and media [3]. - The company reiterated that the transaction would not occur under any illegal or non-compliant circumstances, referencing a previous announcement from March 4 regarding the need for legal and shareholder approvals [3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - The announcement triggered significant public interest, with the topic "Li Ka-shing sells port, Cheung Kong issues statement" trending on social media platforms like Baidu [7]. - Li Ka-shing's rare public appearance coincided with media inquiries about the port sale, where he responded politely but did not elaborate on the matter [6]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - Analysts suggest that the company's statement, while intended to clarify, redirects attention to the implications of capital decisions amid U.S.-China tensions [12]. - The timing of the announcement aligns with U.S. policy changes aimed at reducing drug prices, indicating a broader context of global economic shifts and potential repercussions in antitrust and national security areas [14].

点击图片▲立即试听 编者按："我们应该是所有自媒体中，与制造业、供应链渊源最为密切的了。"在 5月7日，"出海，在路上"第二场直播中，吴老师这样感慨道，十年前他的文章 《去日本买只马桶盖》出圈全国，马桶盖初看是消费行为，深层次是中国制造与 供应链的命题。 这天的直播话题是"供应链生死局"，对普通人而言，这又是一个极为艰深专业的 命题。但在吴老师看来，这一系列出海相关的直播，最大的意义在于"为大家提出 一个问题"。近年来，我们在企业出海方面积累颇深，从专家的理论和洞察，到自 身的一线调研，我们希望能为在当前扑朔迷离的不确定性中，提供一系列的助 力。 与吴老师探讨这一话题的，是 20多年专注研究全球产业创新与供应链，致力于用 全球视角看待中国产业的全局变化的林雪萍老师，以拥有超过20年全球供应链管 理、战略、流程与数字化转型经验，曾为联想主导供应链数字化升级的徐赫。 以下是本次对话的28个核心观点，分享给大家。 整理 / 巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 66 外贸出海和企业出海最大的区别在于,前者 是单要素出海,企业出海是全要素出海,从设备、 技术、人才、资本、商业模式都要出去。 吴晓波频道||周年庆 出海在线 ...

Group 1 - The current trade dynamics between the US and the Eastern power are characterized by a complex interplay of trade disputes and political pressures, leading to a tense situation where the US has financial resources but struggles to acquire goods from the Eastern power, while the Eastern power has abundant goods but faces challenges in earning revenue from the US market [1][2]. - The Eastern power's goods face significant barriers in the US market due to high tariffs and stringent trade regulations, which are exacerbated by the US's protectionist policies aimed at reducing reliance on Eastern products [2][3]. - The US is under considerable pressure from midterm elections, with economic issues such as inflation and supply chain bottlenecks contributing to public dissatisfaction, which complicates the government's ability to effectively address trade relations with the Eastern power [2][3]. Group 2 - The Eastern power demonstrates strong resilience in this trade competition, supported by a complete industrial system and a large domestic market, allowing it to maintain relative economic stability despite external pressures [3]. - Significant achievements in technological innovation, particularly in areas like 5G, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy, have bolstered the Eastern power's economic development and enhanced its position in the global supply chain [3]. - The Eastern power is actively pursuing cooperation with other countries, particularly along the Belt and Road Initiative, to diversify its international market presence and reduce dependence on the US market, thereby increasing its resilience to economic risks [3].

这段时间，地表最强的美国发动了大规模的"关税战"。 世界各国，谈及此事，纷纷摇头。 独独俄罗斯，对"关税战"无感，他们只是在吃一个个的大瓜，因为他们被欧美制裁了多年了，无所谓美 国搞不搞"关税战"。 俄新社网站5月4日发表一篇重要文章：《新的反美联盟正在形成》。 该篇文章的作者是俄罗斯政治观察家德米特里▪科瑟列夫。 此文章用最近发生的几件事，说明"中日反美联盟"正在形成。 第一，日本被美国实行"关税政策"，日本对美国不再信任。 4月2日，特朗普发动了大规模的关税战，除了对中国下狠手，对盟友国家欧盟、日韩等，也没有放过。 日本人可是炸了锅了，这还是那个大哥吗？ 4月9日，美国提出对75个国家实行90天的缓冲期。这90天，就是来和各个国家进行谈判。 让日本不爽的是，美国虽然也对日本实行了90天的缓冲期，但提出的谈判条件非常苛刻，不仅包括对日 本汽车、钢铝等继续实行25%的关税，还提出苛刻条件：让日本大量减少和中国的贸易合作。 美国的条件，让日本非常被动，因为事关日本的重要经济利益，是碰到日本的经济大动脉了。 自己虽然在"关税战"之外，但是，对世界局势的评论，人家俄罗斯媒体可是很积极的。 最近，俄罗斯的媒体聊起了" ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has taken action against certain Chinese companies, demanding delisting due to non-compliance with audit transparency requirements, indicating a serious escalation in financial warfare against China [3][5] - The U.S. aims to create panic among international investors and Chinese companies regarding their future in the U.S. market, which is seen as a strategy to weaken the competitive edge of Chinese firms in the international capital market [5][7] - The U.S. is intensifying its technology decoupling efforts, with reports indicating that it is defining technology restrictions specifically targeting China, including blacklisting certain high-tech companies [7][9] Group 2 - The U.S. is attempting to sever ties in the high-tech sector, particularly targeting companies like Huawei in telecommunications and applying pressure on China's semiconductor industry, aiming to restrict access to critical technology areas [7][9] - Despite these efforts, China's technological development capabilities have proven resilient, and the country is expected to find solutions to overcome challenges posed by U.S. restrictions [9][11] - The geopolitical strategy employed by the U.S. to isolate China may not yield the desired results, as many countries are increasingly inclined to cooperate with China rather than the U.S. [11][13] Group 3 - The series of actions taken by the U.S. against China can be interpreted as a strategic move to divert attention from domestic issues, such as the pandemic and economic recession, by creating an external adversary [13][15] - The U.S. underestimates China's strategic resilience and ability to respond calmly to provocations, suggesting that the future U.S.-China competition will continue to escalate [15][17] - The ongoing confrontation is unlikely to resolve easily, and the outcome may depend more on strategic wisdom than on sheer strength, with both sides needing to navigate the complexities of their relationship carefully [17]

那句话一出口，全场哑了。 美国某位部长站台发言时感慨：最艰难的时候，中国没抛售美债，反而稳住了市场。他本意是想强调"你看，中国没落井下石"。可他万万没料到，美国人根 本不买账。一句话，彻底点燃了网友的火药桶。 有人怒了，说这简直是不要脸。你欠钱还好意思指责债主？更有人冷嘲热讽：靠别人撑着财政还敢在舆论上甩锅，哪来的底气？评论区翻车，炸开了锅。听 着似乎是抱怨，其实暴露的是深层次的不安——中国手里到底还握着多少美国的命门？ 美债这个事儿，真不是一时半会儿能说清楚的账。十多年前，中国一度是美债最大的持有者，最多时高达1.3万亿美元。现在呢？已经降到7590亿。表面上 看，中国是在撤。可就在刚过去的2月，悄悄又加仓235亿。这一下，美国人更糊涂了：你不是在脱钩吗？怎么还往回买？ 这一反常操作，直接击中美国人内心最敏感的神经。他们自己都清楚，现在的财政状况根本撑不起手里的烂摊子。36万亿的债务像一座山压在那儿，每年光 利息就得掏出1.4万亿，钱从哪来？就算你印，也得有人接盘吧？问题是，这盘子越来越烫，谁还愿意接？ 偏偏这时候，中国又出手了。这不是更让人心里发毛吗？ 中国的战略思维向来不是一句话两句话能猜透的。这几年， ...

Core Viewpoint - The halted $22.8 billion port deal involving Li Ka-shing reflects a deeper geopolitical struggle between the U.S. and China over global shipping routes and capital interests [1][4]. Group 1: Transaction Details - Li Ka-shing's company, CK Hutchison, planned to split its port assets into two packages for sale to Italian TIL and U.S. BlackRock, with BlackRock retaining significant control over management decisions [4]. - The core assets in the deal, Balboa and Cristobal ports, are crucial for global trade, with 21% of China's trade with Latin America passing through these ports, valued at over $600 billion annually [6]. - BlackRock holds a 22% stake in MSC, the parent company of TIL, while the Aponte family only holds 15%, indicating a complex ownership structure aimed at circumventing Chinese antitrust scrutiny [4][6]. Group 2: Chinese Response - China invoked its antitrust laws to challenge the deal, asserting that BlackRock and MSC could manipulate 10.4% of global container pricing [8]. - Concerns over data security were raised, as the ports' smart scheduling systems could expose sensitive information about Chinese shipping routes [8]. - Chinese officials and media criticized the transaction as a threat to national sovereignty, with strong public statements emphasizing the potential risks involved [8]. Group 3: Broader Implications - The deal's failure highlights the increasing divide in globalization, with the U.S. attempting to exert capital dominance while China seeks to build a multipolar trade network [15]. - Li Ka-shing's strategy to liquidate "inefficient assets" for investment in safer sectors like European telecom and energy is challenged by national security considerations [11]. - The contrasting approaches of the U.S. and China in port management are evident, with China gaining trust through cooperative projects, as seen in the success of the Piraeus port in Greece [13].

Group 1 - The core message from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is a warning to China to make concessions on trade and economic issues, or face escalated tensions from the U.S. [1][3] - Yellen's statements are seen as a psychological tactic aimed at pressuring China to comply with U.S. demands, such as reducing exports to the U.S. and opening more markets [5][9] - The backdrop of Yellen's remarks includes domestic economic challenges in the U.S., such as inflation and supply chain issues, as well as the shifting global economic landscape where China's influence is growing [7][9] Group 2 - The U.S. is concerned about China's advancements in high-end manufacturing and technology sectors, particularly in semiconductors, which could threaten U.S. technological dominance [11][18] - Yellen's tough stance is also influenced by the political climate in the U.S., as upcoming elections create pressure for politicians to adopt a hardline approach towards China [9][20] - China's economic resilience and strategic partnerships globally provide it with leverage against potential U.S. sanctions, making a complete economic decoupling challenging for the U.S. [11][14] Group 3 - The potential for U.S. sanctions or embargoes on Chinese goods raises concerns about the impact on American consumers and businesses, as many rely on Chinese manufacturing [13][14] - The complexity of implementing sanctions is highlighted, as it could lead to significant disruptions in the U.S. economy, affecting prices and corporate operations [14][16] - The ongoing U.S.-China rivalry is characterized as a long-term strategic battle, with both sides needing to maintain their positions without overreacting to threats [16][18]