核 心 观 点 近日，在对等关税政策超预期的冲击下，人民币汇率快速贬值，国内债市也涨回年初水平。那么，汇率对 于利率究竟有何影响？更进一步地，人民币汇率贬值会制约央行货币政策宽松么？ 汇率对利率有影响么？ 汇率和利率本质上并不存在直接的推导关系，历史上 人民币汇率和10年期国债利率多 数时候呈反向关系，即汇率贬值时期往往债市走牛的概率较高。 不过，汇率贬值和利率下行并不一定同时出 现， 短周期内汇率和利率呈正向关系的情况也曾出现过， 持续时间大多都在一个季度以内，汇率和利率很快 仍将回归反向变动，一般出现在汇率和利率反映的经济预期分化或中美关系变化等背景下。根本上，国内利率 水平与货币政策操作密切相关，是对国内经济基本面变化的反映，而汇率仅阶段性影响货币政策节奏，不至于 扭转市场利率的走势。 汇率是货币宽松的掣肘么？ 回顾历史上的三轮人民币贬值周期，央行货币宽松并未暂停。相较于降息直接带 来资本外流而言，降准对汇率的影响相对中性，故在历次贬值周期内，央行对于降息更为谨慎。具体来看，央 行在两轮人民币走贬时期同时采取降准和降息，而在2018年至2019年的人民币贬值周期内，央行并未调降过政 策利率， 主要的区别 ...

南华外汇（美元兑人民币）周报 中美贸易战反复下，中间价仍是汇率锚 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年4月21日 主要观点 综合通胀、关税政策、美元流动性三个维度的评估，接下来市场的定价逻辑或呈现下述特征：短期交 易窗口或聚焦关税政策的衰退传导效应与持续发酵的美债市场流动性压力；而在中长期维度，投资者或重 新评估美元信用体系稳定性、全球贸易架构及地缘政治格局的潜在重构路径。这种多时间维度的风险定价 机制，折射出全球资本对既有经济秩序可持续性的深层焦虑。因此，在上述时空交叠的定价逻辑演变下， 本质上体现了国际货币体系的结构性隐忧——当短期政策冲击与长期秩序重构形成共振压力，美元体系的 边际承载能力正遭遇系统性拷问。我们认为，接下来的关键点就在于经济，即在当前全球经济的"韧性锦 标赛"中，美元霸权能否维系的核心密钥，或将取决于美国经济能否在这场多维压力测试中保持最后的安 全边际。近期美元兑人民币即期汇率与美元指数的背离走势持续强化，显示人民币汇率形成机制对单一美 元波动的敏感度下降。而随着近期关税事件对汇率形成的压力有所减缓，在稳汇率政策框架（中间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article provides the mid-exchange rates of the Renminbi (RMB) against various currencies in the interbank foreign exchange market as of April 21, 2025, highlighting fluctuations in the RMB's value against these currencies [1] Currency Exchange Rates Summary - The USD/RMB exchange rate is reported at 7.2055, showing a decrease (appreciation of RMB) by 14 points [1] - The EUR/RMB exchange rate is at 8.2806, reflecting an increase of 488 points [1] - The HKD/RMB exchange rate stands at 0.92848, with an increase of 1.7 points [1] - The GBP/RMB exchange rate is noted at 9.6297, up by 274 points [1] - The AUD/RMB exchange rate is reported at 4.6267, down by 34 points [1] - The CAD/RMB exchange rate is at 5.2380, increasing by 25 points [1] - The JPY/RMB exchange rate is noted at 5.1220, up by 282 points [1] - The RMB/RUB exchange rate is at 11.2431, down by 238 points [1] - The NZD/RMB exchange rate is reported at 4.3222, down by 126 points [1] - The RMB/MYR exchange rate is at 0.6085, decreasing by 7.7 points [1] - The CHF/RMB exchange rate is noted at 8.8922, up by 592 points [1] - The SGD/RMB exchange rate stands at 5.5302, increasing by 114 points [1]

赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 李欣越 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 李欣越 摘要 4月2日以来，特朗普关税落地后，美元汇率"意外"走弱、但人民币仍相对承压。近期美元走弱背后的"异 象"，后续美元、人民币汇率的可能演绎？本文分析，可供参考。 一、近期美元走弱有何异常？与美德利差走势背离，兑发达市场与新兴市场分化 年初以来，美元持续走弱，兑发达市场与新兴市场货币的走势明显分化。 1月10日以来，美元持续走 弱；截至4月17日，美元指数跌破100关口、跌至99.4，跌幅高达9.3%。分经济体来看，美元兑发达市 场、新兴市场货币的走势明显分化，分别回落7.6%、1.4%。 4月7日以前，美元的走弱主因美国衰退预期的升温。 1月10日以来，美国经济持续走弱，花旗经济意外 指数由14.5回落至-19.5。衰退担忧下，市场的降息预期也逐步回升，由1.2次一度升至4月4日的4.2次，10 年期美债利率随之大幅回落62bp、导致了美元的相对疲软。 4月7日以来，美债利率反弹、但美元仍在走弱，或因海外资金在"逃离美国"。 市场完成了从"flight to safety"向"flight to non-US ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the US-China trade war on the currency exchange rates, particularly the Chinese Yuan (RMB), and the implications for traditional trade enterprises and e-commerce. Core Points and Arguments 1. **RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations**: The RMB has been oscillating between 7.3 and 7.35, with market expectations divided on its future trajectory due to the ongoing US-China trade tensions and central bank policies [1][4][10]. 2. **Impact of Tariffs on Trade**: Traditional trade enterprises are significantly affected by tariffs, leading to a halt in US export orders or a shift to overseas factories. E-commerce sellers are mitigating tariff impacts through low declaration methods [2][25]. 3. **Market Volatility Post-Tariff Announcement**: Following the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration, global asset markets experienced significant volatility, with the RMB showing relatively small fluctuations compared to the overall depreciation of the USD [3][5]. 4. **Divergent Views on RMB Future**: There are mixed opinions on the RMB's future, with some predicting continued depreciation due to the trade war, while others see potential for appreciation given the overall weakness of the USD [4][10][13]. 5. **Tariff Policy and Dollar Weakness**: The extensive nature of the tariffs has accelerated global trade decoupling, weakening the USD's reserve status and leading to a decline in the dollar index below 100 [5][6]. 6. **Euro Valuation**: The Euro is considered undervalued against the USD, with a reasonable valuation around 1.2, suggesting potential for appreciation if trade tensions escalate further [6][12]. 7. **Current State of US-China Trade Relations**: The trade war is currently at a stalemate, with no significant escalation or comprehensive tariffs being implemented [7][8]. 8. **RMB Pricing and Tariff Risks**: The current RMB exchange rate has already priced in tariff risks, with the depreciation being less severe than during the 2018-2019 trade war period [9][10]. 9. **Potential for RMB Appreciation**: If US-China negotiations lead to a resolution, the additional risk pricing due to tariffs could be eliminated, potentially causing a sharp appreciation of the RMB [12][13]. 10. **Traditional Trade Enterprises' Strategies**: Different types of traditional trade enterprises are responding variably to the tariff situation, with some maintaining operations through local factories in the US, while others are exploring non-US markets [16][17]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **E-commerce Seller Adaptability**: E-commerce sellers can absorb a certain percentage of tariff increases without raising prices, indicating a resilience in their business model compared to traditional trade [26]. 2. **Logistics and Shipping Adjustments**: The shipping industry is adjusting to reduced trade volumes, with a significant drop in traditional trade leading to a reduction in shipping capacity [29][30]. 3. **Investment Considerations for Enterprises**: Companies looking to expand overseas must consider political stability, tax incentives, and local regulations to mitigate risks associated with international investments [18][19][22]. 4. **Financial Risks in Emerging Markets**: Investing in regions with unstable currencies, such as some African nations, poses significant financial risks due to potential currency fluctuations [24]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the intricate dynamics of the US-China trade war and its broader implications for currency valuation and international trade strategies.

Core Viewpoint - The depreciation of the RMB is under significant pressure due to the ongoing US-China trade war and Federal Reserve policies, marking the largest strain since the 2008 financial crisis [1][4]. Impact on Import Costs - The depreciation of the RMB against the USD directly increases the import costs of commodities such as oil and iron ore, with a 1% depreciation leading to a cost increase of 0.8-1.2% [4]. - In 2024, China's reliance on foreign oil is projected to reach 73%, resulting in a 15% year-on-year increase in procurement costs for energy companies, which will compress profit margins in sectors like petrochemicals and aviation [4]. - High-tech product imports, including chips and precision instruments, will also see a cost increase, with companies like SMIC facing a 12% rise in procurement costs for technical equipment [4]. Inflationary Pressures - The depreciation of the RMB is expected to cause the food and consumer goods import price index to rise by 6.3%, with essential items like beef and milk powder experiencing price increases of up to 9.8% [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China is projected to rise by 3.5% year-on-year in 2024, exceeding the central bank's 3% warning line, complicating monetary policy balancing between growth and inflation control [6]. Debt Implications - The depreciation of the RMB increases the repayment costs for companies and local governments with foreign debt, with a 5% depreciation translating to an additional $140 billion in debt servicing costs for the $2.8 trillion foreign debt [8][9]. - Real estate companies, such as Country Garden and Vanke, are particularly affected, with the proportion of dollar-denominated debt interest payments rising from 12% to 19%, exacerbating cash flow challenges [9]. Capital Outflow Risks - Continuous RMB depreciation poses risks of capital outflow, as foreign investment may decline and domestic capital may seek higher returns in USD-denominated assets, especially given the current high US Federal Reserve interest rates [10]. Export Dynamics - While RMB depreciation theoretically enhances export competitiveness, it may lead to a reliance on low-end manufacturing, with high-tech product export share declining by 2.3 percentage points to 28.7% in 2024 [11]. - The withdrawal of foreign R&D centers and a shift in investment towards Southeast Asia by companies like BMW and Tesla indicate a potential decline in foreign investment attractiveness due to currency volatility [11]. Structural Changes and Future Outlook - Historical trends suggest that significant currency adjustments often accompany industrial upgrades, and the current low point of the RMB may represent a pivotal moment for China to advance beyond the middle-income trap and into higher value chains [12]. - Short-term challenges are anticipated as the economy adjusts to these changes, necessitating innovation and a robust domestic supply chain to enhance resilience against external shocks [12][13].

作 者丨林秋彤 编 辑丨肖嘉 图 源丨摄图网 近期，受美国"对等关税"政策影响，全球金融市场震荡，不确定性显著增强。 2 1世纪经济报道记者注意到，在岸和离岸人民币对美元汇率先是短线走低，释放贬值压力后 转而回调，目前均收复7 . 3元关口。截至记者发稿，在岸人民币对美元报7 . 2 9 2 6元，离岸人民 币对美元报7 . 2 8 1 3元。 与 此 同 时 ， 美 元 指 数 持 续 承 压 。 Wi n d 数 据 显 示 ， 4 月 11 日 美 元 指 数 已 跌 破 1 0 0 ， 日 内 跌 幅 达 1 . 1 4％，最新报9 9 . 7 9 0 6。而此前自2 0 2 4年11月6日起，美元指数保持在1 0 5以上的高位已持 续了近半年。 | < w | 美元指数 ರ | | --- | --- | | USDX.FX | | | 99.7690 前收 | | | -1.1682 -1.16% 卖出 | 99.7690 买入 99.7690 | | 最高 今年来 | -8.03% 20 日 -3.82% | | 最低 99.0086 | 10 日 | | 时间 23:54 涨跌 | -1.05 ...

2015 年 10 月 -2016 年 1 月，人民币快速贬值，央行开始收紧资金面，稳定汇率。 2016 年 1 月 22 日，央行行长助理张晓慧表示："现阶段管理流动性要 高度关注人民币汇率的稳定，降准的政策信号过于强。" ——笔记哥《分析》 【笔记20250328— 央行：降准降息再等一下是对的（-央行继续净回笼资金-央行原副行长称降准降息再等一下是对的-传央行指导卖超长债+股市偏弱+资 金面均衡偏松=中上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率明显上行。 央行公开市场开展785亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有930亿元逆回购到期，净回笼145亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金价格仍偏贵，DR001在1.72%附近、DR007在2.05%附近。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.03.28) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 同购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | ...

文/曹萌 3月6日，美元指数逼近104关口，点位创2024年11月以来新低，而自本周起， 美元指数已连续三 日大幅下跌，跌幅超过3%。反观离岸人民币（USD/CNH），升值不足1%。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，当前汇市存在人民币汇率波动幅度显著低于美元波动幅度的一般 模式，无论是在升值还是在贬值过程中。这会带动CFETS等三大一篮子人民币汇率指数保持在稳中 偏强状态，进而体现监管层"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"的控制目标。 01 下跌的不止美元 近日，中美资本市场发生了乾坤大挪移，曾在中国资本市场上演的股债汇三杀戏码，如今来到了具有 200多年历史的美国资本市场。 具体来看，美元指数自3月3日起，已连续三日大幅下行，点位从107上方逼近104，跌幅超过3%。 而汇率走势与宏观经济情况息息相关，数据显示，近期美国制造业活动陷入停滞，通胀压力持续升 温，1月消费者支出环比下降0.2%，贸易赤字扩大至982亿美元，初请失业金人数突破23万大关。 而亚特兰大联储模型显示，美国一季度GDP或萎缩2.825%，创2019年以来最差表现。 东方金诚研究发展部高级副总监白雪表示，近期美元指数大幅下跌与多项 ...

坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，保持汇率弹性。同时，强化预期引导，坚决防范汇率超调 风险，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定。 同时，综合运用公开市场操作、中期借贷便利、再贷款再贴现、政策利率等货币政策工具， 保持市场流动性的充裕，降低银行负债成本，持续推动社会综合融资成本下降，使社会融资 规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 3月6日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上表示， 今 年，我们将根据国内外经济金融形势和金融市场运行情况，择机降准降息。 目前金融机构 存款准备金率平均为6.6%，还有下行空间，中央银行向商业银行提供的结构性货币政策工 具资金利率也有下行空间。 来源：第一财经 ...