来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.1359，较上一交易日下调37个基点。 国泰海通宏观团队表示，2025年二季度货币政策报告对人民币汇率的表述较一季度货币政策执行报告明 显缓和，表明汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定，货币政策的执行节奏将"以我为主"。 美元指数在98关口上方震荡，截至9时30分，报98.2848。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡）8月19日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘跌68 点，报7.1860，上一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1792。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.18872。 ...

100美元 713.59人民币 100欧元 834.27人民币 100日元 4.8391人民币 100港元 91.247人民币 100英镑 966.2人民币 100澳元 464.62人民币 100新西兰元 424.26人民币 100新加坡元 556.92人民币 100瑞士法郎 885.61人民币 100加元 518.35人民币 100人民币112.94澳门元 100人民币59.042马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1119.5俄罗斯卢布 100人民币246.58南非兰特 100人民币19379韩元 100人民币51.322阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币52.433沙特里亚尔 100人民币4732.69匈牙利福林 100人民币50.922波兰兹罗提 100人民币89.47丹麦克朗 100人民币133.6瑞典克朗 100人民币142.49挪威克朗 100人民币571.028土耳其里拉 100人民币262.73墨西哥比索 100人民币453.51泰铢 【纠错】 【责任编辑:吴京泽】 新华社北京8月19日电 中国外汇交易中心8月19日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英 镑、澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法郎、加元、澳 ...

今年以来，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升。数据显示，截至8月18日16时30分，在岸人民币对美元汇率收 盘报7.1792，年内涨幅1.64%；离岸人民币对美元汇率报7.182，年内涨幅2.11%。 截至最新发稿时间9时45分，在岸人民币对美元报7.1860，离岸人民币对美元报7.1885，贬值0.01%。 北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）8月19日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，当日银行间外 汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.1359元，相较前一交易日中间价7.1322元，调贬37个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has shown strong performance this year, with a cumulative increase of over 2%, reflecting multiple factors including a positive domestic economic outlook and a weaker USD index, which fell approximately 0.43% over the week [1] - The three major RMB exchange rate indices released by the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center all rose during the week of August 15, indicating a strong overall performance of the RMB against a basket of currencies [3] - The People's Bank of China has outlined future exchange rate policy directions in its report, emphasizing the importance of market forces in exchange rate formation and the need for a managed floating exchange rate system [4] Group 2 - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index reported 96.17, up 0.13% week-on-week, while the BIS and SDR currency basket indices also showed increases, indicating a synchronized rise in RMB indices [3] - The RMB's implied volatility has decreased to a near one-year low, reflecting a stable exchange rate environment, with the onshore RMB against the USD reported at 7.1831 and the offshore RMB at 7.1886 [3] - The PBOC's policy measures aim to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, supporting a healthy dual fluctuation pattern [4]

中国经济网北京8月19日讯 今日，人民币对美元汇率中间价报7.1359，较前一交易日调贬37个基 点。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年8月19日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1 美元对人民币7.1359元，1欧元对人民币8.3427元，100日元对人民币4.8391元，1港元对人民币0.91247 元，1英镑对人民币9.6620元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6462元，1新西兰元对人民币4.2426元，1新加坡 元对人民币5.5692元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8561元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1835元，人民币1元对1.1294 澳门元，人民币1元对0.59042马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.1950俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.4658南 非兰特，人民币1元对193.79韩元，人民币1元对0.51322阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.52433沙特里亚 尔，人民币1元对47.3269匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50922波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.8947丹麦克朗， 人民币1元对1.3360瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4249挪威克朗，人民币1元对5.71028土耳其里拉，人民币1 元对2 ...

本报记者 刘 琪 银河证券研报认为，《报告》再次释放维护汇率市场基本稳定的政策信号，有助于引导市场预期，对可 能面临的全球金融市场不确定性再次上升的冲击作出前瞻性应对。 展望后期，温彬预计，人民币汇率将维持双向波动格局，稳汇率重要性仍在。下半年，国内稳增长政策 继续对人民币形成支撑，同时市场预计美联储9月份降息概率较高，中美利差收窄也有助于人民币稳汇 率。但也应注意的是，全球地缘冲突风险仍存，或对汇率形成阶段性扰动。在此背景下，央行将继续加 强外汇市场管理，通过"三个坚决"有效引导市场预期；同时，央行稳汇率政策工具箱充足，如逆周期因 子、离岸央票等，预计人民币汇率将保持在合理均衡水平的基本稳定。 中信证券首席经济学家明明认为，后续美元指数的变化以及国内政策或成为人民币汇率的重要影响因 素。若美联储如期降息，美元指数或因此走弱，对于我国证券账户的资本流入有望形成一定利好。央行 稳汇率政策张弛有度，将为人民币汇率的韧性提供有力支撑。 今年以来，人民币对美元汇率稳中有升。Wind资讯数据显示，截至8月18日16时30分，在岸人民币对美 元汇率收盘报7.1792，年内涨幅1.64%；离岸人民币对美元汇率报7.182， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has shown a steady appreciation against the US dollar in 2023, supported by both domestic policies and international factors [1][2] Group 1: Exchange Rate Performance - As of August 18, 2023, the onshore yuan closed at 7.1792 against the US dollar, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 1.64%, while the offshore yuan was at 7.182, with a year-to-date rise of 2.11% [1] - Since August 4, both onshore and offshore yuan rates have fluctuated below 7.2 [1] Group 2: Economic Factors Influencing Yuan Appreciation - Internationally, concerns over the sustainability of US fiscal policies, including large tax cuts and spending bills, have supported the yuan's appreciation [1] - Domestically, ongoing counter-cyclical and growth-stabilizing policies, stable economic data, and advancements in technology and industry have bolstered growth potential [1] - The "anti-involution" trend has stabilized prices, and improved risk appetite in financial markets has provided a solid foundation for the yuan's exchange rate [1] Group 3: Central Bank Policies - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to stabilize market expectations and prevent excessive fluctuations [1] - The PBOC's recent report signals a commitment to maintaining basic stability in the exchange rate, which is crucial for guiding market expectations amid rising global financial uncertainties [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The yuan is expected to maintain a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with domestic growth policies continuing to support the currency [2] - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could narrow the interest rate differential between China and the US, further stabilizing the yuan [2] - The PBOC has sufficient tools, such as counter-cyclical factors and offshore central bank bills, to support the yuan's resilience [2]

Economic Data Trends - Industrial added value growth in July was 5.7% year-on-year, slowing by 1.1 percentage points from June[1] - Fixed asset investment growth was 1.6% year-on-year, down 1.2 percentage points from the first half of the year[1] - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from June[1] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index surpassed 3700 points, increasing by 1.7% week-on-week[1] - Daily trading volume in the two markets consistently exceeded 2 trillion yuan[1] - The 10-year government bond yield approached 1.80%, indicating a downward trend in bond prices[1] Factors Influencing Asset Prices - The slowdown in economic growth is not a new marginal change, as weak investment and consumption have been anticipated by the market[1] - Nominal growth may have replaced real growth as a key driver of market trends, with CPI and PPI showing signs of improvement on a month-on-month basis[1] - Increased market risk appetite is evident, with advancements in AI and biomedicine reducing perceived risks from U.S.-China trade disputes[1] Monetary Policy and Foreign Investment - Expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut in September may support the appreciation of the yuan, attracting foreign investment in RMB-denominated assets[1] - The positive feedback loop between currency appreciation and foreign capital inflow could sustain a moderate upward trend in A-shares[1] Risks to Consider - Geopolitical risks, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and global recession concerns remain potential threats to market stability[1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has weakened expectations for the magnitude of a September interest rate cut, as well as the number and scope of rate cuts within the year. However, a September rate cut remains highly likely, with a probability of over 80%. The precious metals market is still in a rally driven by interest rate cut expectations, though the strength of this rally fluctuates. During the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, gold and silver may experience a divergent trend. Gold may trade sideways or slightly bearish as the need for safe-haven assets diminishes, while silver may strengthen further, indicating a potential catch-up rally. [2] - The US economic data shows that the economy remains highly resilient. The RMB exchange rate has good resilience, and its impact on gold is limited, so it is not a key consideration. [3][26] Summary by Relevant Sections Chapter 1: Market Review - With the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut, funds may continue to flow back to the US, providing some support for the US dollar. Against this backdrop, the sideways nature of gold may intensify, while silver is expected to continue its sideways-to-bullish trend as industrial demand increases with the anticipation of an economic recovery and the impending rate cut. In the long term, the trends of gold and silver will diverge. [9] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - US President Trump and Russian President Putin held a meeting, which may inject positive momentum into global political stability. - US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, marking the second consecutive month of significant growth. The year-on-year increase reached 3.9%, and real retail sales adjusted for inflation rose by 1.2% year-on-year, achieving positive growth for the tenth consecutive month. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining at the lowest level since November 2021. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week dropped to 1.953 million, slightly lower than expected but still hovering near the highest level since 2021. - The US PPI in July soared to 3.3% year-on-year, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%. The month-on-month increase was 0.9%, the largest since June 2022. - There are internal disagreements within the Bank of Japan. Some board members advocate abandoning the "potential inflation" indicator, which lacks a clear statistical framework, and instead focusing more on overall inflation and inflation expectations. This change may pave the way for a rate hike in October. - Several Fed officials spoke out, seemingly aiming to cool down the escalating expectations of an interest rate cut. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again and threatened to allow legal action against Fed Chairman Powell. He also announced the nomination of conservative economist E.J. Anthony as the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. [13][15][16] Chapter 3: Analysis of Key Influencing Factors 3.1 US Economy and Policy - US retail sales in July increased by 0.5% month-on-month, with the year-on-year increase reaching 3.9%. Real retail sales adjusted for inflation rose by 1.2% year-on-year, achieving positive growth for the tenth consecutive month. The ISM non-manufacturing index in July declined from the previous value of 50.8 to 50.1, falling short of the expected 51.5. New orders almost stagnated, employment contracted, and the price index reached a new high since October 2022. The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in July was 55.7, the highest since December 2024. The core PCE price index in June increased by 2.8% year-on-year, higher than the expected 2.7%, reaching the highest level since February. Real consumer spending increased by only 0.1% month-on-month, and disposable income remained flat in June after a decline in May. Overall, the US economy shows high resilience. [17] 3.2 International Economy and Geopolitics - The meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin may have a positive impact on global political stability. Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, bringing the total tariff rate to 50%. He also announced a plan to impose approximately 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, with exemptions for companies building factories in the US. European leaders issued a joint statement on the Ukraine peace issue, expressing support for Trump's efforts to end the conflict. [22] 3.3 Other Financial Markets - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased to 224,000, while the number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week dropped to 1.953 million. The ISM non-manufacturing index declined, and the S&P Global Services PMI reached a new high. Crude oil prices are still subject to significant fluctuations due to production cuts, and the improvement in the Middle East situation has led to a sharp decline in oil prices, reducing US inflationary pressures. The prices of domestic and international copper have shown divergent trends. As the expectation of a September rate cut strengthens, high-risk assets such as US stocks, copper, and crude oil may further rally. [23] 3.4 RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB exchange rate generally tracks the movement of the US dollar index. China's PMI data in July declined, and financial data such as social financing fell short of expectations. Consumption and investment data also weakened, indicating significant domestic economic challenges. However, the RMB exchange rate remains resilient, with a low probability of unexpected fluctuations. Therefore, the impact of the RMB exchange rate on gold, whether in the short term or in the long run, is limited and not a key consideration. [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - Although the US PPI data in July significantly exceeded expectations and retail sales increased substantially month-on-month, the market has only weakened expectations for the magnitude of a September rate cut and the number and scope of rate cuts within the year. A September rate cut remains highly likely. Gold may trade sideways or slightly bearish as the need for safe-haven assets diminishes, while silver may strengthen further, indicating a potential catch-up rally. The synchronous movement and divergent trends of gold and silver coexist, making trading decisions challenging. [29]

新华财经上海8月18日电 中国外汇交易中心公布数据显示，8月15日当周三大人民币汇率指数全线上涨，CFETS人民币汇率指数报96.17，按周涨0.13；BIS货 币篮子人民币汇率指数报101.93，按周涨0.17；SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数报90.85，按周涨0.03。 | 指数名称 | 当日指数 | | --- | --- | | CFETS人民币汇率指数 | 96.17 | | BIS货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 101.93 | | SDR货币篮子人民币汇率指数 | 90.85 | 上周（8月11日-15日）美元在各类经济数据的影响下表现偏弱，美元指数全周下跌约0.43%，收报97.85，为连续第二周下挫，非美货币普遍录得一定涨幅， 英镑、欧元和瑞郎上周分别收涨0.80%、0.54%和0.19%；日元则因市场对日本央行加息预期升温而走强，全周累计上涨0.39%。 【国内方面】 ·国家统计局发布数据显示，7月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.7%，剔除季节因素后环比增长0.38%；1—7月份，全国规模以上工业增加值增长 6.3%，增速高于去年同期0.4个百分点。7月份，社会消费品零售总额38780亿元 ...