人民财讯1月15日电，人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜1月15日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，总体看人 民币汇率是稳健的。影响汇率的因素是非常多元的，比如经济增长、货币政策、金融市场、地缘政治突 发的风险事件等等。中国具有超大规模的市场和完整产业链，科技创新和产业创新加速融合，新动能蓬 勃发展，内需潜力不断释放，国内国际双循环更加畅通，宏观经济长期向好，对人民币汇率基本稳定形 成了支撑。也要看到，外部形势依然复杂严峻，主要经济体利率调整幅度和节奏还有不确定性，地缘政 治冲击可能持续存在，对汇率走势会有一定的扰动，人民币汇率预计将继续双向浮动，保持弹性。 ...

Group 1 - The core judgment presented by Huang Qifan at the Shenzhen Financial Annual Conference is that the RMB will gradually appreciate from 7.0 to around 6.0 over the next decade, emphasizing a steady appreciation rather than a rapid increase [2] - Huang's argument is based on the growth of China's economic strength, but it diverges from the economic fundamentals that underpin exchange rates, as evidenced by the low percentage of RMB in global settlements, which is only 2.88% compared to a projected 30% based on economic strength [2] - The article highlights that while there is a possibility for the RMB to appreciate to 6.0 in the next ten years, Huang's reasoning is seen as lacking in economic common sense, with public sentiment favoring trust in Huang over economic principles [2] Group 2 - The article outlines three essential support points for international credit: the absolute stability of the issuing country's sovereign credit, which includes the absence of debt default risk and political stability [4] - The first support point is cross-border settlement and reserve ratio, with the average international payment share of RMB over the past decade being 3.2%, which does not support predictions of RMB appreciation [4] - The second support point discusses the asset hedging property, questioning which currency, RMB or USD, would be a stronger safe haven in the event of regional conflicts [6] - The third support point addresses the long-term stability of the currency value, emphasizing the need for stability against external fluctuations and internal purchasing power, as instability undermines trust in future value [6]

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and **foreign exchange strategy**, particularly the **RMB (Renminbi)** exchange rate dynamics in the context of strong trade surpluses and a weak US dollar [1][12]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **RMB Exchange Rate Forecast**: - The RMB is expected to appreciate in the short term due to strong trade surpluses and a weak dollar, with a forecast of **6.85** against the USD in Q1 2026 and **7.0** by year-end [11][12]. - The forecast reflects a moderate appreciation against a basket of currencies, with the CFETS RMB index expected to remain around **98-99** this year [12][13]. 2. **Trade Surplus and Economic Conditions**: - A strong trade surplus is anticipated to support the RMB, with exports expected to maintain resilience, driven by global economic growth and easing trade tensions [13][17]. - However, domestic demand remains weak, limiting the potential for significant RMB appreciation [17][18]. 3. **Deflationary Pressures**: - Ongoing deflation in China poses a challenge to sustained RMB appreciation, as it reflects weak domestic demand and low nominal returns on assets [17][18]. - The report suggests that a moderate depreciation of the RMB may be necessary to stabilize the economy and support exports [18]. 4. **Policy Guidance**: - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained a consistent policy stance, emphasizing the need to manage exchange rate volatility within a reasonable range [19]. - The PBOC is likely to intervene to prevent excessive appreciation or depreciation of the RMB, depending on the strength of the USD [19][21]. 5. **Risks to the RMB Outlook**: - **Upside Risks**: A larger-than-expected rate cut by the Federal Reserve or stronger-than-expected Chinese exports could lead to a stronger RMB [22]. - **Downside Risks**: Geopolitical tensions, renewed capital outflows, or a weaker-than-expected Fed rate cut could pressure the RMB [22]. Additional Important Insights - The report highlights that the recent strength of the RMB has had limited spillover effects on other Asian currencies, with only the Malaysian Ringgit showing a stronger correlation due to its ties with the RMB [32]. - The technical analysis indicates that the RMB's appreciation pace may slow down, particularly if it breaks below **6.97**, which could open further downside potential [28][30]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the Chinese economy and RMB exchange rate strategy, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and future expectations.

1月15日，人民币兑美元中间价上调56个基点，报7.0064。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2026年1月15日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美元 对人民币7.0064元，1欧元对人民币8.1312元，100日元对人民币4.4086元，1港元对人民币0.89880元，1 英镑对人民币9.3786元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6593元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0009元，1新加坡元对人 民币5.4231元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.7298元，1加拿大元对人民币5.0254元，人民币1元对1.1465澳门 元，人民币1元对0.57871马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.2601俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3478南非兰 特，人民币1元对209.96韩元，人民币1元对0.52641阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53752沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对47.4885匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.51778波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9195丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3175瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4416挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.18551土耳其里拉，人民币1元对 2.5467墨西哥比索，人民币1元对4.5 ...

北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）2026年1月15日，人民币对美元中间价调升56个基点，报7.0064。前 一交易日中间价报7.0120。 截至当日9时45分，在岸人民币对美元汇率报6.9690，日内升值0.07%；离岸人民币对美元汇率报 6.9659，日内升值0.08%。 ...

1月15日人民币汇率中间价如下： 100美元 700.64人民币 100欧元 813.12人民币 100日元 4.4086人民币 100港元 89.88人民币 100英镑 937.86人民币 100澳元 465.93人民币 100新西兰元 400.09人民币 100新加坡元 542.31人民币 100瑞士法郎 872.98人民币 100加元 502.54人民币 100人民币114.65澳门元 100人民币57.871马来西亚林吉特 100人民币1126.01俄罗斯卢布 100人民币234.78南非兰特 100人民币20996韩元 100人民币52.641阿联酋迪拉姆 100人民币53.752沙特里亚尔 100人民币4748.85匈牙利福林 100人民币51.778波兰兹罗提 100人民币91.95丹麦克朗 100人民币131.75瑞典克朗 100人民币144.16挪威克朗 100人民币618.551土耳其里拉 100人民币254.67墨西哥比索 100人民币451.36泰铢（完） 新华社北京1月15日电 中国外汇交易中心1月15日受权公布人民币对美元、欧元、日元、港元、英镑、 澳元、新西兰元、新加坡元、瑞士法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central point of the news is the announcement of the Renminbi (RMB) to US Dollar exchange rate, which is reported at 7.0064, reflecting an increase of 56 basis points from the previous trading day [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - The People's Bank of China has authorized the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to publish the interbank foreign exchange market RMB exchange rates as of January 15, 2026, with 1 USD equating to 7.0064 RMB [2]. - Other exchange rates reported include: - 1 Euro to 8.1312 RMB - 100 Japanese Yen to 4.4086 RMB - 1 Hong Kong Dollar to 0.89880 RMB - 1 British Pound to 9.3786 RMB - 1 Australian Dollar to 4.6593 RMB - 1 New Zealand Dollar to 4.0009 RMB - 1 Singapore Dollar to 5.4231 RMB - 1 Swiss Franc to 8.7298 RMB - 1 Canadian Dollar to 5.0254 RMB - 1 Malaysian Ringgit to 0.57871 RMB - 1 Russian Ruble to 11.2601 RMB - 1 South African Rand to 2.3478 RMB - 1 South Korean Won to 209.96 RMB - 1 UAE Dirham to 0.52641 RMB - 1 Saudi Riyal to 0.53752 RMB - 1 Hungarian Forint to 47.4885 RMB - 1 Polish Zloty to 0.51778 RMB - 1 Danish Krone to 0.9195 RMB - 1 Swedish Krona to 1.3175 RMB - 1 Norwegian Krone to 1.4416 RMB - 1 Turkish Lira to 6.18551 RMB - 1 Mexican Peso to 2.5467 RMB - 1 Thai Baht to 4.5136 RMB [2].

Group 1 - The Chinese yuan has started the year strong, with the central bank's midpoint rate against the US dollar reported at 7.0120, an increase of 17 basis points, approaching the 7.0 mark [1] - As of early 2026, the yuan has appreciated by 0.26% against the dollar, while the spot exchange rate has risen approximately 0.2% [1] - Over 20 A-share listed companies, including Whirlpool and Artis, have announced plans to engage in foreign exchange hedging to mitigate market risks [4] Group 2 - Among the companies, three from Shandong province, including Sanyou and Senqilin, have announced foreign exchange hedging plans with total transaction amounts not exceeding 750 million, 6 billion, and 100 million yuan respectively [4] - Senqilin, the largest among these, aims to lock in costs and reduce financial expenses as it expands its international transactions under its "833plus" strategy [5] - The foreign exchange hedging ratio for Shandong enterprises has increased from 16.83% in 2020 to 30.39% by September 2025, indicating a growing trend among companies to use financial tools for risk management [5] Group 3 - China's foreign trade continues to expand, with total import and export volume reaching 45.47 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, maintaining its position as the world's largest goods trading nation [5] - The increasing scale of foreign exchange receipts and payments, coupled with a volatile exchange rate environment, has made foreign exchange hedging a necessary action for many enterprises [5] - The core goal of foreign exchange hedging is to lock in future exchange rates and convert financial uncertainties from exchange rate fluctuations into certainties [6] Group 4 - Experts predict a cautious but optimistic outlook for the yuan in 2026, with expectations of continued appreciation in the first half of the year, but increased uncertainty in the second half due to potential changes in US political and tariff policies [7] - The macro team at Industrial Securities believes that while yuan appreciation is likely to continue, the most aggressive phase may have passed, as the central bank aims to avoid creating expectations of unilateral appreciation [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market has initiated a rally since mid-December 2025, driven by three main factors [1] - The reduction of external uncertainties, particularly following key monetary policy meetings by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, has alleviated external pressures [1] - The strengthening of the RMB has enhanced the attractiveness of RMB-denominated assets, creating conditions for a rebound in market risk appetite [1] Group 2 - Intensive policy and industrial developments have catalyzed market movements, with systematic policy deployments in sectors like commercial aerospace driving thematic rotations and attracting targeted investments [1]

Group 1: Non-Banking Financial Sector - The non-banking financial index rose by 2.6%, with brokerage and insurance indices increasing by 1.9% and 3.6% respectively, indicating a synchronized upward trend [6][7] - Daily average A-share trading volume reached 2.85 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 137% year-on-year and 51.6% month-on-month, reflecting heightened market trading enthusiasm [7] - The two financing balance stood at 2.63 trillion yuan, maintaining above the 2 trillion yuan mark for 106 consecutive trading days, suggesting sustained market vitality [7] Group 2: Insurance Sector - The "deposit migration effect" is driving sales in the insurance sector, as banks lower deposit rates and long-term deposits become scarce, leading to increased demand for insurance products [8] - The A-share market is performing well, benefiting from policy support and economic recovery, which has improved the investment returns for insurance funds [8] - Major insurance companies have proactively increased their allocations in high-dividend blue-chip stocks and cyclical sectors, enhancing their profit potential in the current market [8] Group 3: Currency and Exchange Rate - The People's Bank of China has implemented counter-cyclical measures to stabilize the RMB exchange rate, aiming to prevent excessive appreciation [11][12] - The estimated waiting settlement amount for foreign trade is approximately 480 billion USD, indicating potential for RMB appreciation if it surpasses the critical threshold of 6.80 [12] - The swap market reflects a shift in RMB appreciation expectations, with state-owned banks becoming net buyers in the swap market, indicating a bullish sentiment towards the RMB [13] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with food prices improving, particularly fresh vegetables and fruits, which rose by 18.2% and 4.4% respectively [16][17] - The food and beverage sector saw a 2.12% increase, with pre-processed food leading the gains at 6.72% [18] - Major retail players like Sam's Club and Alibaba are expanding aggressively, with Sam's Club sales expected to exceed 200 billion yuan in 2026 [19] Group 5: Machinery and Equipment Sector - The "Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing" initiative aims to enhance the application of AI in manufacturing, with goals set for 2027 to establish a leading global position in AI technology [23] - Numerous Chinese companies showcased their innovations at the CES exhibition, highlighting advancements in robotics and AI applications in manufacturing [24][25]