光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 5 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价重心回落，其中 WTI 6 月合约收盘下跌 1.02 美元至 58.07 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.73%。布伦特 7 月合约收盘下跌 1.03 美元至 61.12 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.66%。SC2506 以 459 元/桶收盘，下跌 7.1 元/桶， | | | | 跌幅 1.52%。美联储周三维持利率不变，但指出通胀和失业率上升 | | | | 的风险增加，在联储努力评估关税政策的影响之际，这进一步令 | | | | 经济前景蒙阴。FOMC 表示，经济前景的不确定性进一步增加。 | | | | 在这次会议上，决策者们一致同意将指标利率目标区间维持在 | | | | 4.25%-4.50%不变。EIA 公布的库存报告显示，截至 5 月 2 日当 | | | 原油 | 周，美国商业原油库存减少 200 万桶，至 4.384 亿桶，此前市场预 | 震荡 | | | 期为减少 80 万桶。截至 5 月 2 日 ...

美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国上周EIA原油库存减少203万桶，彭博用户预计下降110万桶、分析师预 期下降163.233万桶，之前一周减少269.6万桶。 ...

美国至5月2日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant decline in oil prices, with Brent crude and WTI crude experiencing decreases of -18.34% and -18.56% respectively over the past month [7]. - Global oil supply forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC predicting supply levels of 10,413.42, 10,409.94, and 10,377.79 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting a decrease from previous estimates [24]. - The report indicates a mixed outlook for global oil demand, with IEA, EIA, and OPEC projecting demand levels of 10,354.02, 10,364.66, and 10,500.00 million barrels per day for 2025, showing a downward revision from earlier predictions [19]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Overview - As of April 30, 2025, Brent crude, WTI crude, Russian ESPO, and Russian Urals prices were recorded at $61.06, $58.21, $58.38, and $65.49 per barrel respectively, with significant declines noted over the past month [7][10]. Global Oil Inventory - As of April 11, 2025, the total U.S. crude oil inventory stood at 83,986.9 million barrels, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 703.8 million barrels [13][15]. Global Oil Supply - The report details that IEA, EIA, and OPEC's forecasts for global oil supply in 2025 are 10,413.42, 10,409.94, and 10,377.79 million barrels per day, with respective increases from 2024 of 115.70, 134.85, and 147.79 million barrels per day [24][25]. Global Oil Demand - The demand forecasts for 2025 from IEA, EIA, and OPEC are 10,354.02, 10,364.66, and 10,500.00 million barrels per day, with increases from 2024 of 72.57, 90.33, and 130.00 million barrels per day [19][24]. Regional Supply Insights - The report indicates that the supply growth for 2025-2026 is expected to be concentrated in the U.S. and Canada, with reductions primarily from OPEC+ compensatory cuts [29].

美国石油协会（API）数据显示，5月2日当周，美国API原油库存 -449万桶，分析师预期 -250万桶，之 前一周 +380万桶。 ...

⑫ 次日02:30 美联储主席鲍威尔召开新闻发布会 今日重点关注的财经数据与事件：2025年5月7日 周三 ① 待定 中国4月外汇储备 ② 01:00 美国至5月6日10年期国债竞拍-得标利率 ③ 01:00 美国至5月6日10年期国债竞拍-投标倍数 ④ 04:30 美国至5月2日当周API原油库存 ⑤ 09:00 国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会 ⑥ 14:45 法国3月贸易帐 ⑦ 17:00 欧元区3月零售销售月率 ⑧ 22:30 美国至5月2日当周EIA原油库存 ⑨ 22:30 美国至5月2日当周EIA库欣原油库存 ⑩ 22:30 美国至5月2日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 ⑪ 次日02:00 美联储FOMC公布利率决议 相关链接 ...

美国能源信息署（EIA）：美国上周EIA原油库存下降270万桶，彭博用户预计增加78.5万桶、分析师预 期减少78.950万桶，之前一周增加24.4万桶。 ...

美国一周原油库存减少269.6万桶，市场预估为增加42.9万桶。 ...

美国至4月25日当周EIA原油库存、库欣原油库存、战略石油储备库存将于十分钟后公布。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic fuel price adjustment has been suspended due to a recent decline in international oil prices, providing relief for drivers during the holiday period [1][3]. Group 1: International Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have experienced consecutive declines, with New York and Brent crude futures dropping by 1.79% and 1.93% on April 28, and further declines of 3.08% and 2.75% on April 29 [1][3]. - The current average price of crude oil is $64.82 per barrel, with a change rate of 0.65%, not reaching the minimum adjustment threshold [1]. - Factors contributing to the decline in oil prices include the U.S.-initiated tariff war, expectations of reduced oil demand, increasing U.S. oil inventories, and OPEC's proposal to accelerate production increases in June [3]. Group 2: Domestic Fuel Price Adjustments - Since the beginning of the year, domestic gasoline and diesel prices have undergone "three increases, four decreases, and one suspension," resulting in a cumulative decrease of 0.34 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline [5]. - On April 17, there was a significant price drop, with 92-octane gasoline decreasing by 0.38 yuan per liter, 95-octane by 0.41 yuan, and 0 diesel by 0.4 yuan [5]. - Current prices in Zhejiang Province are 7.07 yuan per liter for 92-octane gasoline, 7.52 yuan for 95-octane gasoline, and 6.72 yuan for 0 diesel [5].