近期，国际油价在美伊紧张局势反复等多重因素交织下呈现波动，油价短期逻辑已进入地缘溢价主导。油价震动中，资金抢筹布局石油板块，聚焦全产业链 工具石油ETF（561360）涨超2%，近20日吸金超20亿元。 短期逻辑：地缘溢价主导，油价易涨难跌 短期油价已脱离单纯的基本面定价，进入"地缘消息驱动"模式。市场交易的不是当下的库存，而是未来供应中断的概率。任何风吹草动都可能引发油价脉冲 式上行。 当前油价的定价权，已阶段性让渡给地缘政治。申银万国将其概括为"地缘主导、基本面托底"。这意味着两重含义： 第一，上行风险远大于下行风险。如果美伊发生任何形式的摩擦，或霍尔木兹海峡运输受到实质性干扰，油价将迅速突破当前区间。即使事件不落地，仅仅 是"谈判可能破裂"的消息，就足以驱动油价单日暴涨。 综上，原油市场的供需天平正在从"弱平衡"向"紧平衡"倾斜。过剩叙事正在被库存数据证伪，市场定价权正从看空者向看多者转移。 中长期逻辑：从"周期品"向"战略资产"的价值重估 第二，传统的供需分析框架暂时失效。当前市场关心的不是OECD库存是高是低，也不是中国需求恢复了几成，而是"伊朗的铀浓缩进度""美军在波斯湾的 部署密度""委内瑞拉总 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it is expected that there will still be some pressure, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the volatility center will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held [8][9]. - For precious metals, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and long positions can be liquidated for observation [10]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coils, prices may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. - For iron ore, the market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. - For coking coal and coke, they may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. - For ferroalloys, overall excess pressure continues, and after a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. - For crude oil, the rebound is expected to continue, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [19][20]. - For fuel oil, the upside still has room, and investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. - For polyolefins, cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [24][25]. - For synthetic rubber, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. - For natural rubber, control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. - For urea, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. - For PX, it may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. - For PTA, it may fluctuate in the short term, and 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up. Cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. - For ethylene glycol, it may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. - For short - fiber, trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. - For bottle chips, it is expected to follow the cost - side operation, and cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. - For soda ash, it should still be treated with caution [42]. - For glass, it is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. - For caustic soda, it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. - For pulp, it is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. - For lithium carbonate, the downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. - For copper, the price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. - For aluminum, the price may be under pressure [49][50]. - For zinc, the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. - For lead, it is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. - For tin, the price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. - For nickel, the first - grade nickel is still in an oversupply pattern, and follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, for soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. - For palm oil, attention can be paid to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. - For cotton, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. - For sugar, it is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. - For apples, it is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. - For live pigs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. - For eggs, observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be taken at high prices after the festival [74]. - For corn and starch, corn starch may follow the corn market, and wait patiently for the release of post - holiday supply pressure [75][77]. - For logs, the future demand expectation is still weak, and the fundamentals are under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed with differentiated performance. The central bank carried out reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 40.35 billion yuan on that day. China's January CPI and PPI data showed certain trends. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and it is expected that the monetary policy will remain loose. Treasury bond yields are at a relatively low level, and the Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is not strong, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are at a low level, and the market sentiment has warmed up recently. It is expected that the volatility center of the stock index will gradually move up, and previous long positions can continue to be held. Attention should be paid to risk control during the Spring Festival [8][9]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. Central bank gold - buying behavior also supports the gold price. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to a significant increase in speculative sentiment, and market volatility is expected to increase [10]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated weakly. In the medium term, the price of finished products is dominated by the industrial supply - demand logic. The demand for rebar is declining year - on - year, and the market is in the off - season. The supply pressure still exists, and the inventory is higher than last year. The price may continue to fluctuate weakly, and investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [11][12]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and sorted. The demand for iron ore is at a low level, the supply is in a certain situation, and the port inventory is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years. The market supply - demand pattern is weak, and it may continue to fluctuate in the short term. Investors can pay attention to opportunities to go long on pullbacks [14]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures continued to pull back. The supply of coking coal decreased, and the demand of downstream coke enterprises was cautious. The supply of coke was stable, but the demand was weak. They may continue to fluctuate in the medium term, and investors can pay attention to low - level buying opportunities [15]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures showed different trends. The supply of manganese ore is gradually recovering, and the cost of ferroalloys fluctuates in a narrow range at a low level. The production of ferroalloys is at a low level, the demand is weak, and the overall excess pressure continues. After a decline, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - level range [17]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated upward due to the repeated relationship between the US and Iran. Relevant data showed that speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options, and the number of active oil and gas rigs in the US increased. Geopolitical risks increased, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [18][19][20]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward. The Asian fuel oil market is weak, but the cost - side crude oil rebound drives the fuel oil price to rise. The risk in Iran is unresolved, and there is still room for the upside of fuel oil. Investors can pay attention to long opportunities in the main contract [21][22]. Polyolefins - On the previous trading day, the price of polyolefins showed certain trends. As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand in the market will be greatly reduced, while some suppliers still actively ship. Cautious operations are recommended before the Spring Festival [23][24][25]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures rose. The raw material price rebounded, the supply capacity utilization rate was at a high level, the demand of tire enterprises decreased, and the inventory decreased but was still at a medium - high level. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [26][27]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. After the previous pullback, it showed a strong - side fluctuation before the Spring Festival. The supply is expected to shrink, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery after the festival. Control positions before the Spring Festival [28][30]. PVC - On the previous trading day, PVC futures rose. The price trend and inventory reduction speed depend on the demand recovery after the Spring Festival. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the cost supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [31][32]. Urea - On the previous trading day, urea futures rose. The supply is at a high level, the demand is weakening, and the cost is stable. The inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate strongly [33][34]. PX - On the previous trading day, PX futures rose. The PXN spread and short - process profit were slightly compressed, the operating rate increased slightly, and the cost - side crude oil may have a driving force. It may fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and cautious participation is recommended [35]. PTA - On the previous trading day, PTA futures rose. The supply side changed little, the demand side entered the Spring Festival holiday mode, and the cost - side support was limited. The processing fee was adjusted to the average level of previous years, and it may fluctuate in the short term. 1 - 2 months are expected to see a slight inventory build - up, and cautious operations are recommended [36][37]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The overall load continued to rise, the port inventory continued to build up, the downstream polyester was in seasonal maintenance, and the terminal loom load dropped to the lowest point. It may maintain a pattern of bottom - building fluctuations, and cautious operations are recommended [38]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply contracts, the terminal factory restocking decreases, and the loom load drops to the lowest point. The low inventory may provide bottom support. Trading is based on the cost - side logic before the Spring Festival, and cautious observation is recommended [39][41]. Bottle Chips - On the previous trading day, bottle chip futures rose. The load decreased slightly, there will be concentrated production cuts around the Spring Festival, the supply is expected to shrink, the export growth rate increases, and it is expected to follow the cost - side operation. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival [41]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, soda ash futures closed flat. The fundamentals continued to be loose, the production decreased slightly, the inventory increased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. It should still be treated with caution [42]. Glass - On the previous trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory of traders continued to build up, and the market was in a loose state. It is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [43]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, caustic soda futures rose. The supply was at a high level, the inventory was at a high level historically, and the supply - demand contradiction was not alleviated. The short - term rise was due to the entry of futures - cash merchants, and it should be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer [44]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, pulp futures rose. The inventory continued to build up, the domestic supply increased slightly, the downstream demand was divided, and the market was inactive. It is expected that the pre - holiday market will have limited fluctuations [45]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The domestic production resumption time in Jiangxi is still uncertain, the supply is in a tight - balance state, the demand of the energy - storage sector is prominent, and the inventory is gradually being depleted. The downside support is still strong, but short - term fluctuations may increase [46]. Copper - On the previous trading day, copper futures rose. The capital market risk preference decreased, the terminal and processing enterprises completed pre - holiday restocking, the smelting production was at a high level, and the inventory was in the seasonal build - up stage. The price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [47][48]. Aluminum - On the previous trading day, aluminum futures fell slightly, and alumina futures closed flat. The cost support of alumina is not strong, the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, the aluminum production changes little, and the inventory build - up amplitude increases. The aluminum price may be under pressure [49][50]. Zinc - On the previous trading day, zinc futures fell slightly. The zinc market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, the traditional seasonal inventory build - up is late, and the price will enter an adjustment period [51][52][53]. Lead - On the previous trading day, lead futures rose slightly. The supply is expected to be loose after the festival, the demand is weak, and the inventory is steadily increasing. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [54][55]. Tin - On the previous trading day, tin futures rose. The mining end is affected by the conflict in Congo - Kinshasa, but the supply tightness is alleviated. The demand shows certain resilience. The price has support below, but short - term fluctuations may intensify [56]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The production quota of the world's largest nickel mine may be significantly reduced, the cost is expected to rise, the policy risk in Indonesia increases, the downstream demand is weak, and the first - grade nickel is in an oversupply pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant policies in Indonesia [57][58]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, soybean meal futures rose, and soybean oil futures fell slightly. The export demand expectation is optimistic, but the record - high yield of Brazilian soybeans brings competition. The soybean supply is relatively loose, the demand for soybean meal continues to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil improves slightly. For soybean meal, attention can be paid to long opportunities in the low - cost support range; for soybean oil, observation is recommended after the price leaves the low - cost range [59][60]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil futures fell. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the export volume decreased. The domestic inventory is at a medium - high level. It is recommended to pay attention to long opportunities after pullbacks [61][62]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed futures fluctuated. The planting area of rapeseed in Canada may be affected by profit concerns, and the domestic import policy and inventory situation are certain. Temporary observation is recommended [63][64]. Cotton - On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures fluctuated. The USDA report is bearish in the short term. Although the domestic harvest is good, the inventory build - up is less than expected, and the future supply is expected to be tight. The downstream consumption is resilient. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [65][67]. Sugar - On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The global production increase expectation is strong, and the domestic market is under the pressure of domestic new sugar and imported sugar. It is expected to be weak in the medium term [68][69][70]. Apples - On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures fluctuated. The current market is in a vacuum period, and the inventory is at a low level in recent years. The new - season apple production and quality decline. It is expected that the medium - and long - term price will be strong. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and partial long positions can be taken after pullbacks [70][71]. Live Pigs - On the previous trading day, live pig futures rose. The market supply exceeds demand, the consumption boost during the Spring Festival is limited, and the post - holiday supply may still face pressure. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival [72][73]. Eggs - On the previous trading day, egg futures rose. The supply in February is expected to remain at a relatively high level, the pre - holiday stocking is over. Observation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and short positions can be

前言： 一篇文章的指引或许有限，但长期精准的分析才是稳步提升收益的关键。或许你见过无数分析与盈利案 例，却仍受亏损困扰——这往往是因过度综合复杂策略所致，而市场本质是"少数者盈利"的博弈。与其 分散参考，不如专注跟随专业思路：建立"入场、出场、风控"三位一体的交易体系，方能实现稳定盈 利。积少成多并非难事，关键在于科学规划与严格执行。 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周四（2月12日）亚市时段，现货黄金震荡下行，现交投于每盎司5055美元附近，日内跌幅约0.55%， 隔夜强劲非农数据打压美联储降息预期，令金价承压。但全球央行购金、贸易政策不确定性及美元信用 疑虑仍提供支撑，金价站稳20日均线。市场聚焦周五美国CPI数据，若通胀放缓，降息预期重燃或推动 金价再度上攻。稍早前，因美国政府停摆三日而推迟发布的美国1月非农就业报告远超预期，新增就业 13万人，较12月的5万人大幅反弹，亦高于7万人的市场预期。失业率随之从4.4%降至4.3%，引发投资 者调整预期，目前市场预计美联储首次降息时点将落在7月。与此同时，施密德重申其鹰派立场，称"降 息可能导致高通胀持续更长时间"。施密德表示，当 ...

截至2月12日，美元指数报96.906附近，呈现小幅震荡态势，延续近期持续承压的走势。自2月初以来， 美元指数震荡下行，先后失守97、98两大关口，目前已逼近2022年2月以来的四年低位区间，成为当前 外汇市场的核心关注焦点，其走势主要受美联储政策预期、美国财政前景及全球资金配置情绪等多重因 素主导。 美国财政前景与全球资金流动趋势进一步加剧了美元的承压态势。近期有消息显示，美国国债可能面临 新一轮抛售，"抛售美国资产"的市场心态持续蔓延，导致全球资金配置时对美元资产更为谨慎，直接压 低了美元资产的风险偏好溢价。此外，美国总统特朗普对美元走弱的态度相对温和，其曾多次提及美元 走弱有助于降低美国出口成本，提升美国企业的全球竞争力，这一表态也间接弱化了市场对美元的支撑 预期。自特朗普上任以来，美元指数累计下跌超10%，财政信用恶化与去美元化加速相互交织，推动美 元进入趋势性走弱通道。 值得关注的是，短期地缘因素与机构博弈可能引发美元指数阶段性波动。东方证券研报指出，全球地缘 局势升温可能推动美元指数短期走强，但难以扭转其中期下行趋势，地缘事件更多是放大市场波动，而 非改变由经济和政策基本面决定的长期走势。从机构观 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 国内供应收缩给予铜价支撑 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 期货研究报告 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨夜金价呈现震荡运行，美国 1 月非农就 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensifying due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. The nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump has led to short - term dollar strengthening and affected platinum and palladium prices. However, in the long run, factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and the supply - demand situation in the industry support the prices of platinum and palladium [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 551.15, 545.00, and 539.00 respectively, with increases of 10.35, 12.70, and 11.55, and increases of 1.91%, 2.39%, and 2.19% respectively. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 439.10, 436.00, and 430.65 respectively, with increases of 7.25, 8.30, and 7.90, and increases of 1.68%, 1.94%, and 1.87% respectively [1] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of platinum and palladium futures are 12143 and 4151 respectively. The trading volumes of platinum futures are 6476, 269, and 53 respectively, and those of palladium futures are 2850, 57, and 47 respectively [1] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of platinum futures are - 5.77, 0.38, and 6.38 respectively, and those of palladium futures are - 16.1, - 13, and - 7.65 respectively [1] Spot Market - **Prices**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 545.38 yuan/gram, 2160.00 US dollars/ounce, 836.00 yuan/gram, and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively. The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 423.00 yuan/gram and 4316.12 rubles/gram respectively. The price changes and increase/decrease rates vary [1] - **Ratios**: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.29, 1.09, - 6.15, - 12.15, 1.07, and - 3.10 respectively, different from the previous values [1] Inventory - **Platinum**: The current NYMEX inventory is 583,369.21 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts are 319,682.01 ounces, the trading volume of the Gold Exchange is 6,991.09 million yuan, and the trading volume is 128.00 kilograms. Compared with the previous values, the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6081.4 ounces, and the trading volume and trading amount increased significantly [1] - **Palladium**: The current NYMEX inventory is 186,863.10 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts are 148,317.64 ounces. The inventory decreased by 4010.4 ounces compared with the previous value, and the registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1] Related Derivatives - **Indices**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 96.92, 6,941.47, 4.18, 23,066.47, 50,121.40, and 6.94 respectively, with corresponding increases or decreases compared with the previous values [1] - **Gold and Silver Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai gold (2604, 2606, 2608) and Shanghai silver (2604, 2606, 2608) futures have increased compared with the previous closing prices [1] Macroeconomic News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point cut, consistent with Trump - appointed director Milan [2] - **Fed Chair Nomination**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but this nomination faces opposition from some senators. Warsh has shifted from a hawkish to a dovish stance in recent years [2] - **China's Economic Data**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production remained in an expansion state, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2] - **PBOC Meeting**: The People's Bank of China held a 2026 payment and settlement work meeting, requiring efforts to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening supervision, and optimizing payment services [3]

2026 年 2 月 12 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1133.00 | 1130.400 | 20505 | 20944 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1123.96 | 1121.220 | 19711 | 20284 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | 9.04 | 9.180 | 794 | 660 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | 0.80% | 0.82% | 4.03% | 3.25% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 89881 | 160510 | 134806 | 211818 | | | | 成交量 | 44843 | 217933 | 2 ...

来源：WIND 风险提示： 2月10日，全球最大对冲基金桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧在阿联酋迪拜接受了深度专访。达利欧表示，基于其数十年宏 观投资经验及历史周期研究，结合当前美国所处的历史方位来看，达利欧警告，美国正处于帝国兴衰大周期的"第五阶 段"，即秩序崩溃与冲突爆发的前夜。 达利欧认为，美国目前正处于其定义的"六阶段大周期"中的第五阶段——即在极度两极分化和债务失衡下，处于边缘 但尚未完全崩溃的时期。此外，达利欧重申他对黄金的看法：在当前的债务与政治动荡下，黄金是唯一"非他人负 债"的资产。从资产配置的解读看，达利欧回答"我的投资组合中应该有多少黄金？……对个人来说，取决于他们的投 资组合构成，可能是投资组合的5%到15%。" 我们认为，贵金属牛市的终结往往需要大的叙事逻辑反转，从中长期视角看，美联储降息周期、逆全球化与海外不确 定性、全球去美元化和央行购金等逻辑仍在延续，黄金的上行趋势仍未完待续。 复盘历史数据来看，黄金在中长期维度的上涨趋势中，金价在阶段性达到高点快速回落后，后续通常有望迎来可观涨 幅。上周黄金价格走势为急跌、反抽、回落并震荡，波动率逐渐下降，呈现比较典型的高波动去杠杆过程。在黄金价 格 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in U.S. non-farm employment in January 2026, which exceeded market expectations, and discusses its implications for monetary policy and various commodities [1][6][17]. Economic Data Summary - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, far surpassing the expected range of 50,000 to 75,000, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1][6]. - The average hourly wage increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations [6]. Commodity Insights Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced high volatility following the employment data release, with a sharp decline as interest rate cut expectations cooled. However, long-term factors such as de-dollarization and central bank gold purchases continue to support prices [2][17]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, indicating ongoing support for gold prices [2][17]. Copper - Copper prices are currently in a consolidation phase, with tight supply of concentrates and fluctuating smelting profits. The overall smelting output remains high despite a month-on-month decline [3][18]. - Key indicators such as electricity investment and automotive production are showing positive trends, while the real estate sector remains weak [3][18]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock indices showed slight declines, with the construction materials sector leading gains and the communications sector lagging. The market's trading volume was 2 trillion yuan [10]. - Financing balances decreased by 3.828 billion yuan, indicating a cautious market outlook as the Spring Festival approaches [10]. Nickel Supply - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce nickel production, with a target output of 260-270 million tons for the year, which is lower than the 2025 target of 379 million tons. This move is expected to have a substantial impact on global nickel supply [1]. Other Commodities - The article also discusses trends in various commodities such as oil, methanol, and rubber, indicating a mixed outlook with some sectors facing supply constraints while others are adjusting to seasonal demand changes [12][13][14][15].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a sudden shift, with major indices closing lower after an initial rise, particularly impacting the software sector, which saw the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) drop by 2.55% [1] - Concerns over the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the real economy are growing, especially regarding the potential disruption to the software industry, leading to a decline in valuation multiples [1] Cryptocurrency Market - The cryptocurrency market faced significant sell-offs, with Bitcoin briefly falling below $66,000, experiencing a drop of over 4%, while Ethereum and SOL also saw declines exceeding 3% [1] - Data from CoinGlass indicated that in the last 24 hours, 144,691 traders were liquidated, with total liquidation amounts reaching $458 million [1] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - U.S. non-farm payroll data exceeded expectations, leading traders to reduce bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [2] - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmieding expressed concerns about persistent inflation, suggesting that rates should remain at a "slightly restrictive" level, while Fed Governor Milan held a contrasting view advocating for rate cuts [2] Asset Management Trends - Amundi, Europe's largest asset management firm with €2.8 trillion in assets, announced plans to reduce exposure to U.S. dollar assets and shift towards European and emerging markets due to concerns over U.S. economic policy [3] - The shift in strategy is echoed by other major institutions, such as the Swedish pension fund Alecta, which has sold off a significant portion of U.S. Treasuries due to concerns over U.S. government unpredictability and rising debt [3] Structural Reasons for Dollar Asset Bearishness - Amundi outlined three structural reasons for its bearish stance on dollar assets: 1. Diminishing private demand due to high interest rates and inflation eroding purchasing power [4] 2. Ineffectiveness of fiscal stimulus as large deficits contribute to inflationary pressures and debt burdens [4] 3. Policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, suppressing capital expenditure outside of AI [4] - A fundamental shift in the correlation between the dollar and U.S. equities and bonds is noted, with the dollar no longer acting as a stabilizer but rather as a volatility amplifier [4]