其一：欧洲正面临前所未有的困境 如今，欧洲就像被放在火上烤一样，焦急而无助。随着普京和特朗普宣布将在阿拉斯加会面，欧洲的局 势瞬间变得紧张起来。对于欧洲来说，他们一直都觉得自己与美国是并肩而立的盟友，仿佛与美国在国 际事务中的地位平起平坐。因此，欧洲一直期望在关键的决策桌上占有一席之地，分享利益。 然而，俄乌冲突爆发至今，欧洲的援助金额已经远远超过其他国家。据统计，到2024年底，欧盟（不包 括英国）将为乌克兰提供高达1.44万亿美元的援助，而美国的援助额为1.24万亿美元，排在第二位。作 为首要的资助者，欧洲的付出可谓巨额，但特朗普却毫不犹豫地将其踢出局，甚至将其排除在谈判之 外。 欧洲为何沦落至此？我认为，主要源于两大致命的错误。 其二：低估了俄罗斯的力量 这对欧洲来说，无疑是一次沉重的打击。法国总统马克龙和德国总理默茨纷纷表达愤怒，马克龙强 调："乌克兰的未来应该由乌克兰人民决定，欧洲人必须参与其中，因为他们自己的安全也受到了威 胁。"默茨则愤怒地表示："我们不能接受俄罗斯和美国之间的领土问题，竟然是在我们和乌克兰人的头 上讨论和决定。"但即使欧洲再怎么呼喊，特朗普和普京的会谈依然没有给欧洲留出任何空间 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in China's rare earth exports has led to a notable shift in the U.S. stance, particularly from Trump, who is now showing a more conciliatory approach and expressing intentions to visit China, indicating a potential turning point in U.S.-China relations [1][3]. Group 1: Rare Earth Exports - China's rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. surged from less than 60 tons in May to 353 tons in June, marking a 660% increase, while total rare earth exports rose from 1,238 tons to 3,188 tons, a 157.5% increase [3]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has accelerated the approval process for rare earth export controls to ensure national security while meeting reasonable demands from other countries [3][8]. Group 2: U.S. Response - The Trump administration responded by restoring exports of NVIDIA's H20 AI chips to China and easing restrictions on General Electric's jet engine parts [5]. - The White House has relaxed visa and investment restrictions for China and indicated that plans for a presidential visit to China are underway, alongside intensifying the third round of U.S.-China trade negotiations [5][7]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The recent trade consensus and the established 90-day tariff ceasefire highlight the U.S.'s need to expand its market and alleviate supply chain pressures, with rare earths being a critical component [7]. - Trump's domestic economic challenges and election pressures necessitate a visit to China to secure agreements that could enhance his political image ahead of the midterm elections [7][8]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - Rare earths are essential for electric vehicles, wind energy, and high-end defense equipment, with China controlling over 90% of the global rare earth market [8]. - The U.S. risks losing its competitive edge in key resources if it over-regulates, potentially pushing allies like the EU, Japan, and South Korea closer to China [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The series of events from China's export expansion to Trump's attitude shift indicates that despite intense competition, there remains room for dialogue between the U.S. and China, highlighting their interdependent relationship [9]. - The sustainability of this "peaceful situation" is uncertain, influenced by internal divisions within Trump's team and domestic hawkish pressures [9].

Group 1 - The ongoing geopolitical tensions between the US, Europe, and Russia are drawing in countries like China, India, and Brazil, with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg issuing threats to these nations regarding trade with Russia [1] - Trump's ultimatum to Putin, demanding a peace agreement with Ukraine within 50 days or facing 100% tariffs on countries purchasing Russian oil, reflects a strategic shift that may indicate deeper divisions among US allies regarding their strategic goals [1][3] - Stoltenberg's confidence may be misplaced as the US's internal divisions on Russia policy become more apparent, with Trump's proposed "secondary sanctions" indirectly targeting countries like China [3] Group 2 - China's response to the pressure from the US includes the revision of its "Export Control Technology Catalog," which now includes core lithium battery technologies, directly impacting the highly dependent renewable energy supply chains in the US and Europe [3][5] - The trend of increasing dissatisfaction among developing countries towards unilateral sanctions is leading to closer ties with China and Russia, indicating a shift in global alliances [5] - The proportion of non-dollar transactions in global trade has surpassed 38%, reflecting a move towards a multipolar economic landscape, with China and Russia conducting 95% of their trade in local currencies [7]

Core Viewpoint - The company has significantly reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds, reaching the lowest level in 16 years and now ranking third globally behind Japan and the UK [1][2]. Group 1: Current Holdings and Market Dynamics - The current holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds amount to approximately $750 billion after consecutive reductions in March and April [1]. - The liquidity of the bonds held is lower compared to short-term bonds, making it impractical to liquidate the entire position at once without causing market disruption [1]. - A large-scale sell-off would likely lead to a rapid decline in bond prices, resulting in a loss of wealth for the company [1]. Group 2: Strategic Considerations - Maintaining a position in U.S. Treasury bonds serves as a strategic leverage in international negotiations, particularly in response to U.S. policies such as tariffs [2]. - The company's holdings represent only 2% of the total U.S. Treasury market, indicating that a complete liquidation would have minimal sustained impact [2]. - The upcoming two years will see a significant amount of U.S. debt maturing, and selling bonds now could adversely affect the interest rates on new debt issuance [2]. - A gradual and strategic reduction of holdings is suggested as a more beneficial approach, aligning with the company's long-term interests [2].