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西南期货早间评论-20260106
Xi Nan Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:55
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum is still weak, but different investment products have different trends. For example, the stock index is expected to have its fluctuation center gradually move up, while the treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure [6][9]. 3. Summary by Category Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close down. The 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.05%, 0.02%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 10 - year main contract rose by 0.03% [5]. - **Policy and News**: The central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 5th, with a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan due to 482.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The 9 - department notice on promoting green consumption was released [5]. - **Outlook**: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 2.26%, 2.55%, 3.11%, and 2.69% respectively [8]. - **Policy and News**: The China Securities Regulatory Commission held a symposium on promoting the cross - departmental work of the comprehensive prevention and control system for financial fraud in the capital market. It aims to improve the system, strengthen coordination, and enhance corporate governance [9]. - **Outlook**: The fluctuation center of the stock index is expected to gradually move up, and investors can choose the right time to go long [9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the gold main contract close at 995 with a 1.78% increase, and the silver main contract close at 18,247 with a 6.87% increase [11]. - **Policy and News**: The Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari commented on the employment market, inflation, and economic outlook [11]. - **Outlook**: The market volatility is expected to significantly increase. It is advisable to exit long positions and wait and see [11]. Steel Products (Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw thread steel and hot - rolled coil futures weakly oscillate. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai thread steel, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil were reported [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for thread steel is in a year - on - year decline, and the market will enter the off - season. The supply pressure has eased as the production is at a low level this year. The inventory is higher than last year but the consumption speed is fast. The hot - rolled coil has similar fundamentals [13]. - **Outlook**: The prices are likely to continue to weakly oscillate. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels during rebounds and manage their positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw iron ore futures oscillate at a high level. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder were reported [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The national hot metal daily output has declined in the past two months. The import volume in the first 11 months of 2025 increased by 1.4% year - on - year, and the domestic production is lower than in 2024. The port inventory is at the highest level in the same period of the past five years [15]. - **Outlook**: The market supply - demand pattern is weak, but the futures may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for short - selling opportunities at high levels and manage their positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw coking coal and coke futures decline significantly [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: After the holiday, domestic coking coal production increased. The demand from downstream coke enterprises is weak, and the fourth - round price cut of coke procurement has been implemented. The blast furnace profit is low, and the demand for coke is weak [17]. - **Outlook**: The futures may continue to weakly oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for buying opportunities at low levels and manage their positions carefully [17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon main contract decline by 0.78% and the silicon - iron main contract decline by 1.37% [19]. - **Supply and Demand**: The manganese ore supply is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is slightly increasing. The cost of ferroalloys fluctuates slightly at a low level. The production of thread steel by sample steel mills is lower than in 2024, and the production of ferroalloys is at a low level in the past five - year period, but the inventory continues to increase [19]. - **Outlook**: After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot loss expands [20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil decline significantly due to the possible development of Venezuelan oil resources by the US [21]. - **Policy and News**: The US may have captured the Venezuelan president, and the US oil production reached a record high in October. The OPEC meeting confirmed a suspension of production increase in the first quarter [21]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw fuel oil decline significantly and close below the moving average group. The Asian VLSFO spot discount narrowed, and the HSFO oscillated within a range [23]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory is high, which is negative for prices. The spot discount narrowing and the possible increase in crude oil prices may support the fuel oil price [24]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [25]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Hangzhou PP market have mixed price movements, and the Yuyao LLDPE price increased [26]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production enterprises are actively reducing inventory, and the market price has stopped falling and rebounded, which is conducive to price stability [26]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [27]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract rise by 0.95%. The Shandong mainstream price increased, and the basis was stable [28]. - **Supply and Demand**: The price increase was supported by the rise in butadiene price and high device operating rate, but the weak downstream demand limited the increase. The inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene rubber decreased [28][29]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract rise by 1.06% and 1.14% respectively. The Shanghai spot price increased, and the basis slightly widened [31]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic supply has stopped, but the overseas pressure remains. The demand from tire enterprises is weak, and the inventory is seasonally increasing. The 20 - rubber delivery supply has expanded [31]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate [32]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract decline by 0.67%. The spot price was stable, and the basis slightly widened [33]. - **Supply and Demand**: It is in the traditional off - season. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The cost support is strong, and the social inventory is increasing [33][34]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side [33][34]. Urea - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the urea main contract rise by 1.43%. The Shandong Linyi price increased, and the basis was stable [35]. - **Supply and Demand**: The daily output has slightly increased, and the agricultural demand is expected to increase. The demand from the industrial sector is weak. The inventory has decreased [35]. - **Outlook**: The downward space is limited [36]. PX - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PX2603 main contract decline by 1.23%. The PXN spread and short - term profit are recovering [37]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PX load is stable, and the inventory is low. The crude oil price may be adjusted due to the US - Venezuela situation [37][38]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate and adjust in the short term. It is advisable to participate with caution and pay attention to macro - policies and fundamental changes [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the PTA2605 main contract decline by 1.87%. The processing fee has recovered [39]. - **Supply and Demand**: The PTA load has increased, and the polyester load has recovered. The export has increased. The cost of crude oil may be uncertain due to geopolitical situations [39]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate in the short term. It is advisable to operate with caution and pay attention to oil price changes [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract decline by 2.51% [40]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is expected to increase, the port inventory is increasing, and the demand support is slightly weakening [40][41]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see and pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [41]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2602 main contract decline by 1.25% [42]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the terminal factories are mainly consuming inventory. The new orders in the weaving sector are weak [42]. - **Outlook**: It may oscillate following the raw material price. It is necessary to control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [42]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the bottle - chip 2603 main contract decline by 1.46%. The processing fee is around 410 yuan/ton [43]. - **Supply and Demand**: The bottle - chip factory load has increased, and the export growth rate has increased. The supply - demand structure has slightly improved, but the cost is still the main influencing factor [43]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate following the cost. It is advisable to participate with caution and control risks [44]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract rise by 7.74% [45]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand from the energy - storage and power - battery sectors has improved. The inventory has decreased [45]. - **Outlook**: The price may be supported in the short term, but it is necessary to operate with caution as it is easily affected by news [45]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai copper main contract rise by 2.22% [46]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global copper supply may be tight due to strikes in Chile. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing [46]. - **Outlook**: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise [46]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai aluminum main contract rise by 2.57%, and the alumina main contract decline by 0.72% [48]. - **Supply and Demand**: The alumina supply is in excess, and the electrolytic aluminum production is stable. The demand from processing enterprises is weak [48]. - **Outlook**: The price is at a high level. It is necessary to be vigilant about price retracement [48]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc main contract rise by 1.16% [50]. - **Supply and Demand**: The zinc concentrate processing fee is low, and the refined zinc production may decrease. The overseas supply - demand tension has eased [50]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to be cautious about chasing the rise as the consumption off - season is approaching [50]. Lead - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai lead main contract rise by 0.32% [52]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply from primary and secondary lead enterprises is weak, and the consumption is in the off - season. The inventory is low [52][53]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate within a range [54]. Tin - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai tin main contract rise by 1.05% [55]. - **Supply and Demand**: The tin supply is tight due to geopolitical conflicts and slow production resumption in Wa State. The demand has some resilience [55]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate strongly [55]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai nickel main contract rise by 0.71% [56]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Indonesian nickel policy may increase costs. The stainless - steel demand is weak, and the primary nickel is in an oversupply situation [56]. - **Outlook**: It is necessary to pay attention to policy changes [56]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the soybean meal main contract decline by 0.28% and the soybean oil main contract decline by 0.13% [57]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Brazilian soybean planting is almost completed. The soybean supply is relatively loose, and the demand for soybean meal is growing moderately, while the demand for soybean oil has slightly improved [57][58]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to look for long - position opportunities in the cost - support range for soybean meal and long - position opportunities for call options at low levels for soybean oil [58]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw Malaysian palm oil rise slightly [59]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to reach a seven - year high, and the export has decreased. The domestic import has increased [60]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: The Canadian rapeseed price increased by more than 1% [62]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil imports have changed, and the inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil is at a relatively high and low level respectively in the past seven years [62]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to wait and see for now [63]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the domestic Zhengzhou cotton first rise and then fall. The overseas cotton price rose by 1% [64]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly, but the future planting area may decrease. The textile and clothing export has shown some resilience [65][66]. - **Outlook**: The cotton price is expected to be strong [66]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Zhengzhou sugar oscillate and rebound, and the overseas raw sugar slightly rebounded [68]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic and Indian sugar production is expected to increase, and the supply pressure is increasing. The import volume has changed [69]. - **Outlook**: The upward space may be limited after the significant rebound [70]. Apples - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the domestic apple futures rise significantly [72]. - **Supply and Demand**: The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the new - season production and quality have declined [73]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term [73]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the national average pig price remain unchanged. The main contract declined by 0.98% [75][76]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of large - scale farms may increase in January, and the demand has weakened after the holiday. The frozen - product inventory has decreased [75][76]. - **Outlook**: The supply may face great pressure in the first quarter. It is advisable to consider an inverse spread strategy [76]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the main contract rise by 1.42% [78]. - **Supply and Demand**: The egg supply is expected to remain at a high level in January, but the supply may improve marginally. The consumption is weak after the New Year's Day [77][78]. - **Outlook**: It is advisable to consider a positive spread strategy [78]. Corn and Starch - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the corn main contract decline by 0.22% and the corn starch main contract decline by 0.44% [79]. - **Supply and Demand**: The North Port corn inventory is low, and the Northeast production area's grain - selling progress is fast. The
武汉2025年全社会用电量公布 新能源与数字经济成增长双引擎
Ren Min Wang· 2026-01-06 02:13
2026年1月1日,国网武汉供电公司发布2025年全社会用电数据,全年累计用电量达857.12亿千瓦时,同比2024年 增长4.76%,展现出稳健韧性。 这些高技术制造业与现代服务业的用电增长,背后折射了武汉电网与行业区域发展同频共振。2025年,国网武汉 供电公司聚焦全面打造现代化用电营商环境,建立重大项目报装"双长制",推动项目"拿地即开工""摘牌即通 电"。同时,大电网建设持续推进,500千伏东新变电站、金银湖变电站接连投产送电,一年投运2座500千伏变电 站,为区域经济发展注入坚强动力。大力实施网架优化补强工程,投运220千伏舵落口、西边湾等重点工程20项, 按期投产165项主配网度夏重点工程。这些举措助力东湖实验室、湖北瑞达智能装备产业园等省市重点项目"早接 快用",助力武汉市牵住高质量发展的"牛鼻子",以科技创新引领现代化产业体系建设。 在产业用电亮眼的同时,武汉市用电结构亦呈现积极变化。城乡居民生活用电量增速达3.84%,低于全社会用电 量增速,而充换电服务业用电量增长17.4%,既反映市民绿色出行意愿提升,也是武汉城乡协调发展和绿色转型 的缩影。 2025年9月25日,华中地区首个进入城市腹地 ...
港股开盘 | 恒指高开0.59% 保险股活跃 友邦保险涨超2%
智通财经网· 2026-01-06 01:43
恒生指数高开0.59%,恒生科技指数涨0.79%。盘面上,保险股活跃,友邦保险涨超2%;锂矿股强势, 天齐锂业涨超3%;科网股延续反弹,百度集团涨超1%。 本文转载自"腾讯自选股",智通财经编辑:徐文强。 广发证券认为,本轮港股资产上涨具备基本面支撑,由于较A股更少的传统经济板块,自2024年下半年 开始,在内外需共同企稳、宏观政策发力托底的背景下,港股盈利已经出现结构性修复迹象,只是阶段 性被外卖补贴战打破。中美战略性关键科技领域中,绝大部分核心公司在港股有上市。高端制造业、科 技的成长正从"单点突破"迈向"多点爆破"。映射至资本市场,港股正从传统的顺经济周期,逐步转向AI 应用、新能源、半导体等代表硬科技的主赛道。恒指新经济相关的权重从17%提升至接近50%。随着外 卖补贴战退坡以及AI驱动的广告及云服务成为新的增长点,恒指2026年业绩增速有望回升至10.8%,港 股上涨可能从流动性驱动转向盈利和流动性共同驱动。 国联民生证券认为,2026年尤其是上半年,国内经济弱复苏、美联储宽松未完、产业催化延续的情形对 港股仍有利。资金层面,2026年南向资金仍有6300亿港元—10500亿港元的增量空间,其中被动 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:绿色金融与新能源-20260106
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 01:26
2026年01月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍:现实压力背负与周期转变叙事博弈,宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢:现实基本面拖累,盘面博弈印尼政策为主 | 2 | | 碳酸锂:供给收缩担忧叠加需求向好预期,价格重心上移 | 4 | | 工业硅:基本面弱势格局 | 6 | | 多晶硅:高位震荡,关注消息面影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 不锈钢:现实基本面拖累,盘面博弈印尼政策为主 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力(收盘价) | 134,100 | 1,250 | 8,690 | 20,160 | 16,050 | 13,200 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力(收盘价) | 1 ...
2025年A股IPO数量同比翻倍,机构预计新股发行步伐将加快
Huan Qiu Wang· 2026-01-06 01:17
Group 1 - As of January 4, there are 342 companies waiting for IPO approval in the A-share market, with the Beijing Stock Exchange having the highest number at 208 companies, accounting for 60.82% of the total [1] - Among the queued companies, 194 have a net profit of over 80 million, representing 56.73%, while 143 companies have a net profit exceeding 100 million, making up 41.81% [1] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has relaxed regulations to promote technological innovation, leading to a projected doubling of IPOs in 2025 compared to 2024, with 115 companies expected to list and a total financing amount of 128 billion RMB [1][4] Group 2 - The largest IPO in 2025 is expected to be from Huaneng New Energy, raising 18.2 billion RMB, followed by Moore Threads Technology with 8 billion RMB, and Xi'an Angrui Siwei New Materials Technology with 4.6 billion RMB [4] - The CSRC has reintroduced regulations allowing loss-making tech companies to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, similar to NASDAQ, which is anticipated to further stimulate market activity [4] - Analysts predict that the reforms introduced in 2025 will accelerate IPO activities in 2026, with a focus on sectors such as artificial intelligence, new energy, high-end manufacturing, commercial aerospace, quantum technology, and biomanufacturing [4]
开门红!88只无锡股上涨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-06 01:12
2026年1月5日 A股迎来新年首个交易日 三大指数集体高开高走 记者从无锡市上市公司协会获悉,A股"无锡板块"方面,截至收盘,127只无锡A股中88只实现上涨,其中,卓易信息、三房巷、柏诚股份、振江股份4只 股票强势涨停,喜迎市场开门红。 | 排名 | 证券简称 | 涨幅 | 行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 卓易信息 | 19.99% | 计算机 | | 2 | 隆达股份 | 11.15% | 有色金属 | | 3 | 采纳股份 | 11.05% | 医药生物 | | 4 | 灵鸽科技 | 10.31% | 机械设备 | MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错! MACD金叉信号形成,这些股涨势不错! "无锡板块今天表现非常亮眼,尽显区域产业韧性与成长活力。"国联民生证券研究所研究员表示,无锡股今日整体表现强劲,主力资金大幅流入科技与新 能源相关领域。从行业分布看,表现突出的个股主要集中在电力设备、电子、医药生物等板块,与当前市场热点高度契合。 卓易信息全天封死涨停,报收91.88元,涨幅19.99%,换手率6.9%,成交额7.24亿元。市场分析认为,公司主要受AI编 ...
福龙马2025年斩获18.75亿环卫大单 设立4家子公司注册资本2630万
Chang Jiang Shang Bao· 2026-01-05 23:53
Core Viewpoint - Fulongma has secured 43 sanitation service projects in 2025, with a total contract value of 1.875 billion yuan, which is expected to positively impact the company's operating performance in 2026 and beyond [2][3]. Group 1: Project Wins and Financial Impact - In 2025, Fulongma won 43 sanitation service projects, with a first-year service fee amounting to 596 million yuan and a total contract value of 1.875 billion yuan [3]. - As of the announcement date, the annualized contract amount for ongoing sanitation service projects is 4.044 billion yuan, with a total contract value of 33.012 billion yuan, providing a solid revenue foundation for the future [3]. - The company reported a significant improvement in cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 152 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, compared to a negative 136 million yuan in the same period last year [5]. Group 2: Business Expansion and Innovation - Fulongma has established four new subsidiaries in Hebei, Tianjin, Fujian, and Guizhou, with a total registered capital of 26.3 million yuan, focusing on the environmental protection business [4]. - The company has a strong presence in the sanitation equipment market, with a market share of 3.53% for new vehicles and 8.27% for new energy sanitation equipment [7]. - Fulongma's R&D efforts are robust, with 524 valid patents, including 103 invention patents, and a R&D expense of 43.64 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance and Market Conditions - In the first three quarters of 2025, Fulongma's total operating revenue was 3.599 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.07%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 113 million yuan, a decrease of 1.83% [8]. - The overall sanitation service industry is under pressure, with a 3% year-on-year decline in the annualized total amount of public bidding for sanitation service projects in the first half of 2025 [8]. - Despite the challenges, Fulongma's gross margin improved by 1.12 percentage points to 21.63%, although the net profit margin decreased slightly [8].
深市2025年业绩预告“开门红” 多行业龙头展现增长韧性
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【CBC日评】1月4日萤石小幅上涨
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-01-05 22:10
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多地召开“新年第一会” 多举措护航经济提质增效
Zheng Quan Ri Bao· 2026-01-05 17:08
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