Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - In March, China's official foreign exchange reserves reached $32,406.65 billion, an increase of $13.441 billion month-on-month, primarily driven by exchange rate factors[1] - The positive contribution from exchange rates was significant, with the dollar index declining by 3.13% from the end of February, impacting reserves positively by approximately $60.625 billion[2] - The valuation effect negatively impacted reserves by about $4.73 billion due to falling European bond prices, leading to a net effect of approximately $55.901 billion on reserves[2] Group 2: Trade Environment and Currency Fluctuations - The short-term trade environment is identified as a core factor influencing exchange rates, with expectations of increased two-way volatility[3] - If trade tensions escalate with other major countries, they may devalue their currencies against the dollar, which could lead to a passive appreciation of the RMB[3] - Conversely, if major countries make concessions in trade negotiations, external pressures on China may increase, expanding the depreciation space for the RMB[3] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of the end of March, gold reserves stood at 7.37 million ounces, marking the fifth consecutive month of increases[4] - Gold reserves now account for 6.4% of total foreign exchange reserves, with expectations for further increases in this ratio[4] - Short-term outlook suggests a potential slight decline in gold prices due to unmet U.S. gold tariff expectations, but a long-term forecast predicts new highs by 2025 driven by central bank purchases[4]

Report Summary Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, and price trends of logs in the market. It shows that the supply of New Zealand logs is relatively stable, with a certain number of ships departing and arriving in March and April. The demand in some ports has increased slightly, while the overall inventory has decreased slightly. The spot prices of some log varieties have declined, and the shipping and exchange rate factors have also shown certain fluctuations. Section Summaries 1. Overview - **Spot price trends**: For the mainstream deliverable 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quoted 790 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, and the Jiangsu market quoted 785 yuan/cubic meter, down 20 yuan/cubic meter from last week. Other varieties also showed different price changes [4]. - **Supply**: As of March 30, there were 51 ships departing from New Zealand in March, 44 of which were bound for China and 7 for South Korea with reduced loads. It is estimated that 1870,000 cubic meters will arrive in March [4][7]. - **Demand and inventory**: As of the week of March 28, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.39 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.23 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.49 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.19 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports was 2.5006 billion cubic meters, a slight decrease of 2.76 million cubic meters from the previous week [5][12]. - **Other factors**: The Baltic Dry Index fell again this week. As of the week of April 4, the BDI recorded 1489 points, down 113 points (-7.1%) from last week. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the New Zealand dollar also changed [5][56]. 2. Supply - As of March 30, 51 ships departed from New Zealand in March, with 44 going to China and 7 to South Korea with reduced loads. It is estimated that 21 ships will arrive in March and 30 in April, with an expected arrival volume of 1.87 million cubic meters in March. A detailed list of ship schedules is provided [7]. 3. Demand and Inventory - **Demand**: As of the week of March 28, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 2.39 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.23 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 1.49 million cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 0.19 million cubic meters) [5][12]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Lanshan Port was about 1.2748 billion cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 2.2 million cubic meters, +1.8%), Taicang Port was about 606,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 cubic meters, -0.08%), Xinminzhou was about 329,500 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 505,000 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port was about 289,900 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 140,000 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports decreased slightly [5][12]. 4. Market Trends - As of April 3, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 was 829 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.5% from last week. The market continued to fluctuate weakly, and the fundamentals maintained a weak supply - demand pattern. The monthly spreads tended to narrow [15]. 5. Price and Spreads - **Spot price**: The prices of various log varieties in Shandong and Jiangsu markets showed different degrees of decline compared with previous periods [19][21]. - **Regional spreads**: The report shows the price spreads of different log varieties between Shandong and Jiangsu regions through charts [22][23][29]. - **Species and specification spreads**: The price spreads between different species and specifications of logs in the Shandong market are presented [41][43][45]. 6. Other - **Shipping and exchange rates**: The Baltic Dry Index fell, and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the RMB and the New Zealand dollar changed. The shipping and exchange rate factors are presented in a table [55][56].