发言人 1: 好，行。 发言人 2: 好，那我们现在开始倒数，5、4。 发言人 3: 各位投资者朋友，大家上午好！欢迎来到一周一度的大摩宏观策略谈。上周一，您正处中 秋假期，所以我们暂停一周。原本，经历了在北京、上海一系列调研、政策研讨之后，我 们今天定的标题是前瞻四中全会之后的市场。和经济，但是也是计划赶不上变化。过去三 四天，大家又感受到了中美之间博弈的新一轮波澜壮阔的变化。所以我想今天的标题就是 中美博弈和四中全会下的市场和经济。特别是这一轮新的博弈，稀土。如何演绎？这里面 我们有一些对短期的考量和长期中国战略性的抉择的一些路径的判断。 当然我们的首席策略师 Laura 也会讲具体一点，市场现在该怎么操作。当然，回归到之前 我们定的主题，由于有了新一轮的中美的变数，包括关税等其他非关税壁垒，所以接下来 的三个重要的时间点，10 月下旬的四中全会、12 月中旬的中央经济工作会议、明年 3 月 份。所有的四中全会和中央经济工作会议制定的大纲转化为数字，转化为具体政策目标。 这三个事件分别可能会针对中美的新一轮博弈。做出怎样的变化和影响。那我们今天也有 宏观团队的蔡志鹏博士，会继续的分析。 当然大家也注意到了 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **China-U.S. relations** and its impact on the **Chinese economy** and **stock market**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China-U.S. Competitive Dynamics** The competitive confrontation between China and the U.S. remains unchanged, with ongoing minor conflicts and a low probability of reaching a comprehensive agreement [1][3][6] 2. **China's Rare Earth Export Controls** China has strengthened its rare earth export controls due to dissatisfaction with the U.S. not fully adhering to previous agreements and improvements in domestic capabilities in key areas like chips and computing power [1][5][6] 3. **Market Caution Due to Uncertainty** Increased uncertainty in China-U.S. relations necessitates cautious market operations, especially with key dates approaching, such as potential U.S. tariff increases on November 1 and the implementation of China's rare earth licensing system on December 1 [1][6][7] 4. **Focus on Domestic Policy Support** Investors should pay attention to domestic policy support, particularly in consumer demand and real estate, as these areas are expected to influence future market trends [1][7] 5. **15th Five-Year Plan Recommendations** The recommendations will focus on technological independence and security, addressing critical material and software shortages, and promoting a unified national market with transparent subsidy policies [1][8] 6. **Macroeconomic Policy Stability** Macroeconomic policies are expected to maintain stability with moderate adjustments to ensure a clear economic bottom, despite the fading effects of fiscal stimulus [1][9] 7. **Manufacturing Investment Trends** Manufacturing investment currently exceeds 15% of GDP but has seen a decline in growth rates, indicating a significant drag on the economy [1][10] 8. **Upcoming Key Dates and Expectations** Important upcoming events include the Fourth Plenary Session from October 20-23, which will set the direction for the next five years, and the Central Economic Work Conference in December, which is expected to set a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026 [1][11] 9. **Current Consumer Demand Trends** Domestic consumer demand is cooling, with weak performance in tourism during the National Day holiday, indicating underlying consumption weakness [2][12] 10. **External Demand Challenges** Despite strong performance in September, external demand is expected to face pressure in the fourth quarter due to base effects rather than trade war impacts [2][14] 11. **Policy Measures to Boost Investment** The government is expected to use flexible quasi-fiscal measures to stimulate declining investment demand and alleviate local government financial pressures [1][15] 12. **Social Security System Reforms** Reforms in the social security system are anticipated to accelerate the rebalancing of demand structures towards domestic consumption [1][16] 13. **Economic Growth and Deflation Outlook** The economy is expected to explore a path out of deflation until 2026, with significant improvements likely only after 2027 as the real estate market stabilizes [1][17] 14. **Real Estate Market Challenges** The real estate market faces significant challenges in the fourth quarter, with declining new home sales and potential new policies depending on market conditions [1][24] 15. **Consumer Sector Performance** The consumer sector is expected to show growth in the fourth quarter, supported by government policies and improved disposable income due to reduced negative wealth effects from real estate [1][25][26] 16. **Price Pressure on Goods** Price pressures remain, with no increase in per capita consumption, indicating ongoing downward pressure on prices across various sectors [1][28] 17. **Investment Strategy Adjustments** Investors are advised to shift more funds to the A-share market due to its relative stability amid geopolitical uncertainties, focusing on domestic demand and technology sectors [1][23] 18. **Stock Selection Strategy** A bottom-up stock selection strategy is recommended, focusing on high-growth sectors and companies that can benefit from domestic stimulus policies [1][32] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The potential for a significant market adjustment could present a buying opportunity if the market declines by more than 10% [1][20] - The importance of observing the U.S. actions regarding tariffs and software restrictions as indicators of future China-U.S. relations [1][21] - The need for clear definitions and execution details regarding key software restrictions to assess the impact on bilateral relations [1][22]

Core Insights - The express delivery business in China has surpassed 150 billion packages as of October 11, 2023, achieving this milestone 37 days earlier than in 2024 [1] - The express delivery revenue and volume in China's central and western regions have increased by 13.6% and 25.5% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the national average [1] - The postal and express industry is enhancing the rural delivery logistics system, establishing a three-tier logistics framework at the county, township, and village levels, which is gradually bridging the gap in consumption patterns and service experiences between urban and rural residents [1] Industry Developments - The postal and express industry is characterized by strong connectivity and integration, which deepens the division of labor in production and enhances circulation efficiency while reducing costs [1] - The industry is increasingly supporting the release of consumption potential and serves as a crucial channel for breaking market barriers and promoting the free flow of resources [1] - The express market in China continues to grow in scale this year, with a focus on improving service levels to effectively support the vitality of consumption [1]

Core Points - The implementation of the "Electronic Seal Management Measures" aims to enhance the management and application of electronic seals, supporting the digital transformation of governance and economic activities [1][2][3] Group 1: Importance of the Measures - The measures are crucial for advancing the construction of a digital China, as electronic documents are fundamental data forms that support governance and socio-economic development [1] - The electronic seal, utilizing cryptographic technology, ensures the authenticity and integrity of electronic documents, promoting their widespread application in various sectors [1][2] - The measures help build a trust system in the digital age by providing reliable authentication for organizations, thereby reinforcing the legal validity of electronic seals [2] Group 2: Main Spirit and Content of the Measures - The measures consist of 8 chapters and 38 articles, detailing the definition, effectiveness, responsibilities, and management requirements of electronic seals [3] - They clarify the legal equivalence of electronic seals to physical seals, providing a solid institutional framework for their use in governance and economic activities [3] - The measures establish a comprehensive responsibility system for electronic seal management, outlining the roles of various governmental bodies [3][4] Group 3: Management Requirements - The measures stipulate a structured approach to electronic seal management, emphasizing safety, standardization, and comprehensive oversight throughout the seal's lifecycle [4] - They define the management processes for application, production, registration, usage, and cancellation of electronic seals, ensuring compliance with legal standards [4][5] - The measures promote mutual recognition of electronic seals across regions and departments, facilitating their application in government services and reducing administrative costs [2][5] Group 4: Implementation and Promotion - The measures provide a foundational legal basis for electronic seal management, requiring local authorities to effectively implement and promote their use [6] - There is a focus on training and public awareness to ensure understanding and compliance with the measures among relevant stakeholders [6][7] - The measures encourage the online processing of electronic seal applications and promote their use in various public and social services, enhancing their functional value [7]

国家邮政局的监测数据显示，截至10月11日，今年我国快递业务量已突破1500亿件。 这一规模有多大？1500亿件快件，相当于2022年全球快递包裹业务量的近八成。 达成目标有多快？今年突破1500亿件比去年提前了37天，在高基数之上，我国快递业务量持续实现高增 长，成为全球快递包裹市场的"动力源"。 小小快递，连接千城百业、联通线上线下。透过小包裹"加速跑"的身影，可以一探中国经济涌动的活 力。 流动的包裹，彰显着国内大市场的发展潜力。 近日，新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州尉犁县墩阔坦乡琼库勒村村民库尔班·麦合木提收到一箱网购的米面粮 油套装。 在广袤新疆，这一幕收货场景已成为日常。通过"集运配送"模式，新疆包邮落地成真。目前，京东全平 台80%以上商品对新疆实现包邮，拉动今年来自新疆的订单量同比增长超一倍。 "包邮区"西进，是邮政快递业通过服务构建全国统一大市场、扩大农村市场消费的生动缩影。在新疆喀 什，新型县、乡、村3级物流体系不断健全，更多家电产品被送往各个乡镇；在西藏林芝，集运转运、 邮快合作等模式应用广泛，农牧区百姓网购成本显著降低……今年上半年，我国中西部地区快递业务收 入和业务量同比分别增长13.6%和 ...

Core Insights - The express delivery business volume in China has surpassed 150 billion packages as of October 11, 2023, which is 37 days ahead of the pace set in 2024, indicating stable growth in the consumer market and the economy [1] Industry Developments - The postal and express delivery industry plays a crucial role in building a unified national market [1] - In regions like Kashgar, Xinjiang, a new logistics system is being established, facilitating the delivery of more goods such as refrigerators and washing machines to various towns [1] - In Liupanshui, Guizhou, a "source live streaming + logistics linkage" mechanism ensures the rapid delivery of kiwifruit nationwide [1] Rural Logistics Enhancement - The postal and express delivery sector has been strengthening the rural delivery logistics system, creating a three-tier logistics framework at the county, township, and village levels [1] - The gap in consumption patterns and service experiences between urban and rural residents is gradually diminishing [1]

Core Insights - The express delivery business volume in China has exceeded 150 billion pieces as of October 11, 2023, 37 days ahead of the 2024 timeline, indicating stable growth in the consumer market and a positive economic outlook [1] - The postal and express delivery industry has been enhancing the rural delivery logistics system, establishing a three-tier logistics framework at the county, town, and village levels, which is gradually bridging the gap in consumption patterns and service experiences between urban and rural residents [1] - The industry plays a crucial role in supporting the national economic cycle by effectively connecting production, distribution, circulation, and consumption through a comprehensive network that covers the entire country and reaches globally [1]

我国快递年业务量再次突破1500亿件 记者12日从国家邮政局获悉，根据国家邮政局监测数据显示，截至10月11日，2025年我国快递业务量突 破1500亿件，比2024年提前37天。 国家邮政局有关负责人说，邮政快递业通过覆盖全国、通达全球的网络体系，有效打通了生产、分配、 流通、消费各环节，为畅通国民经济循环提供了坚实支撑。 这名负责人表示，这充分彰显出我国消费市场平稳增长、经济稳中有进的发展态势，也体现了邮政快递 业在服务构建全国统一大市场中发挥的重要作用。在当前经济转型升级的关键时期，邮政快递业作为现 代流通体系的重要组成部分，将继续推动行业高质量发展，加快培育新质生产力，以科技创新为引领， 为构建全国统一大市场作出更大贡献。新华社图文 （文章来源：上海证券报） ...

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has seen significant growth, with the volume surpassing 1.5 trillion packages by October 11, 2023, which is 37 days earlier than last year [1][3] - The expansion of express services is supported by technological innovations and improved logistics infrastructure, enhancing online consumption [5][7] Group 1: Market Growth - The express delivery market continues to grow, with a focus on enhancing service levels and fostering new productive forces through technological innovation [7] - In the first eight months of the year, regions such as Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Guizhou, and Qinghai experienced over 30% growth in express delivery volume [3] Group 2: Infrastructure Development - A total of 1,300 large-scale mail and express processing centers and over 400 professional logistics parks have been established nationwide, with 420,000 rural delivery service stations achieving full coverage of urban and rural areas [5] - The integration of distribution centers, express outlets, and intelligent scheduling systems has created a leading smart logistics network [5] Group 3: Technological Innovation - Thousands of unmanned vehicles and over 300 drones are in operation, with drone deliveries reaching nearly 3 million packages [5] - The implementation of smart logistics solutions, such as automated warehouses, is addressing the challenges of precise delivery in manufacturing [8][10] Group 4: Industry Integration - The express delivery service has become deeply embedded in the supply chain, enhancing efficiency across various industries, including automotive and electronics [12] - The postal and express industry is characterized by strong connectivity and integration, facilitating deeper cooperation in production and reducing circulation costs [14]

Core Insights - The express delivery business in China has surpassed 150 billion packages as of October 11, 2023, indicating a stable growth in the consumer market and the economy, and highlighting the role of the postal and express industry in building a unified national market [1][2] Group 1: Market Development - The express delivery industry is crucial for expanding rural market consumption, with improvements in logistics systems in regions like Xinjiang, Guizhou, and Yunnan facilitating the delivery of various goods to rural areas [1] - The establishment of a three-tier logistics system (county, township, village) is helping to bridge the gap in consumption patterns and service experiences between urban and rural residents [1] Group 2: Regional Coordination - New mail and express processing centers in regions like Qinghai and Gansu have significantly increased capacity, while standardized construction of distribution centers in Sichuan and Shaanxi is accelerating due to policy support and funding [2] - In the first half of 2025, the express delivery business revenue and volume in central and western China are expected to grow by 13.6% and 25.5% year-on-year, respectively, outpacing the national average [2] Group 3: Efficient Flow of Production Factors - In Zhejiang, a new mechanism integrating passenger and cargo services is addressing delivery challenges in remote mountainous areas, enhancing the two-way logistics channel between urban and rural areas [2] - In Shandong, the exploration of smart logistics and supply chain applications in the industrial sector is providing digital solutions for pre-production logistics, facilitating rapid coordination between production and logistics [2]