2026年的第一缕阳光洒向鹏城，照见的是一座在流动与忙碌中沸腾的城市。 元旦假期，深圳交出了一份"热力四射"的双面答卷：一面是交通枢纽客流量全线"爆表"，纪录屡屡刷 新；一面是消费市场人气与销售额"供需两旺"，新场景层出不穷。 从地下穿梭不息的地铁列车，到口岸川流不息的人群，从商圈如织的人流到公园里惬意的笑脸，数据与 场景共同刻画出深圳经济强劲的脉搏与城市澎湃的活力，为"十五五"开局之年赢得了满堂彩。 交通动脉全线"飘红" 新年伊始，深圳的交通网络率先奏响了"开门红"的激昂乐章。一组组"创历史新高"的数据，不仅是简单 的数字增长，更是这座城市强大吸引力、辐射力与经济韧性的直观体现。 城市轨道交通成为观察这座超大型城市活力的最直观窗口。2025年12月31日，深圳地铁全网总客运量达 1305万人次，历史性突破1300万大关，为全年轨道交通运营画下了一个惊叹号。 这份热度延续至新年，2026年元旦当天，客运量达1058.69万人次，刷新了休息日历史最高纪录，实现 名副其实的"开门红"。 回望2025年，深圳城市轨道交通全年运送乘客32.85亿人次，客流增量与增幅分居全国第一和一线城市 第一。日均客运量突破900万 ...

2025年收官之际，券商对A股市场进行深度复盘与前瞻，认为2026年A股将延续"低斜率慢牛"格局，在 政策托底与经济内生复苏共振下，市场有望向上突破。其中，科技成长（AI+、先进制造）、"反内 卷"及供需改善、人民币升值受益链等方向将成为核心投资主线。 政策与流动性驱动结构性行情 2025年12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议关于2026年经济工作强调，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局。 华龙证券研究所策略分析师朱金金认为，中美经贸关系总体稳定，但仍存在潜在不确定性。一方面，已 达成的部分共识设定了时效，后续需开展进一步磋商。另一方面，2026年为美国中期选举年，是影响中 美关系节奏的重要变量。"十五五"规划建议为未来五年的产业发展描绘了清晰的航向，核心是构建以科 技创新为引领、以先进制造业为骨干的现代化产业体系。机遇蕴藏在产业结构的升级浪潮中、新质生产 力的培育领域，以及全国统一大市场建设和高水平对外开放所带来的广阔空间里。 科技与先进制造有望获政策支持 投资策略上，朱金金建议关注， "十五五"规划建议提到的经济社会发展目标前两项为"高质 ...

Economic Situation - The economic situation is characterized by persistent challenges, but the overall tone is becoming more positive. The external environment is expected to stabilize marginally, while domestic supply-demand imbalances are highlighted as a significant issue [2][10]. - The meeting emphasizes the need to address "development and transformation" issues, indicating that many challenges can be resolved through concerted efforts [10]. Five Musts - The meeting outlines "Five Musts" to enhance economic potential, focusing on internal capacity building to respond to external challenges and the importance of policy support alongside reform innovation [2][18]. - Key strategies include ensuring effective market regulation while promoting investment in both physical and human capital [19]. 2025 Growth Target - The growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 5% for both nominal and real GDP, reflecting a pragmatic approach to align with long-term goals and current economic conditions [3][21]. - The transition of growth drivers is expected, with the "three new economies" projected to surpass the real estate sector historically [21]. Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy framework is shifting from "promoting stability through growth" to "enhancing quality and efficiency," indicating a focus on structural optimization rather than mere expansion [4][26]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate around 4%, with a focus on improving the efficiency of spending rather than just increasing the scale [30][31]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with expectations for potential rate cuts and targeted support for key sectors [36][40]. Key Tasks - The emphasis on domestic demand is paramount, with strategies to boost consumption and stabilize investment growth projected at 2-3% for 2026 [5][46]. - Innovation-driven growth is prioritized, with plans to strengthen the integration of education, technology, and talent development [6][50]. - Reforms will focus on eliminating barriers to development, enhancing market dynamics, and improving the business environment [7][57]. Real Estate Market - The policy focus is shifting towards stabilizing the real estate market, moving from demand stimulation to a balanced supply-demand approach [8][63].

Core Viewpoint - The overall economic performance of China in August remains stable, with steady growth in production, demand, employment, and prices, supported by new growth drivers and consumption incentives [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators show stability, with no significant changes in economic growth, employment, or prices [1]. - High-tech manufacturing investment continues to grow, indicating strong support for manufacturing investment from new productive forces [1]. Consumption Trends - The consumption of durable goods, particularly in the automotive sector, has seen a rebound in retail growth, aligning with the government's recent "anti-involution" policy [1]. - The implementation of consumption-boosting policies, such as the replacement of old products and various social welfare initiatives, is expected to enhance consumer capacity and willingness [2]. Future Outlook - The economic outlook for the second half of the year is positive, with expectations for stable economic operation due to increased resource investment and ongoing policy support [2]. - Upcoming holidays, such as the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, are anticipated to further stimulate consumer spending [2].

Core Viewpoint - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with strong performance in consumption, exports, and industrial production, leading several international investment banks to raise their economic growth forecasts for China in 2025 [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Forecasts - UBS raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China from 4% to 4.7%, citing a robust second-quarter GDP growth of 5.2% supported by "trade-in" subsidies and stable export growth [1] - Morgan Stanley increased its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 4.5% to 4.8%, highlighting export resilience and proactive fiscal measures as key growth drivers [1] - Nomura maintained its GDP growth predictions for the second half of this year and 2026 but slightly adjusted its 2025 forecast upward due to better-than-expected second-quarter GDP growth [4] Group 2: Export Performance and Policy Support - The report indicated that exports outperformed expectations due to factors like "export grabbing" towards the U.S., ASEAN transshipment, and the depreciation of the yuan against non-dollar currencies [2] - Barclays Bank anticipates increased government efforts to boost consumption in the second half, including expanding the "trade-in" policy to more categories and potentially extending subsidies to additional service sectors [4] - UBS expects additional stimulus measures to be introduced by the government in late Q3 or Q4, including an increase in the fiscal deficit ratio by over 0.5 percentage points and interest rate cuts of 20-30 basis points [4] Group 3: Economic Challenges Ahead - Morgan Stanley noted that economic growth is expected to slow further in the second half, with weakening exports becoming a major drag on growth due to the fading "export grabbing" effect and renewed U.S. tariff policies [5] - The marginal effectiveness of fiscal stimulus is expected to diminish, and the impact of the "trade-in" policy on consumption will gradually decline [5] - A stimulus package of approximately 0.5 to 1 trillion yuan may be introduced, with timing potentially in September or October, allowing policymakers to assess economic trends more accurately [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, with expectations of GDP growth slowing to 4.5% in the third quarter of 2025, following a strong second quarter performance [3][13]. Core Insights - The second quarter showed robust growth, but June data revealed emerging concerns, particularly in retail and export sectors, indicating a potential softening of economic momentum [3][4]. - The real estate market continues to struggle, with declining transaction volumes and increased fiscal pressure on local governments, necessitating potential policy adjustments [5][12]. - Consumer spending is being supported through financial measures, with a focus on enhancing service supply to stimulate demand [10][11]. Summary by Sections Economic Performance - The second quarter GDP growth is projected to reach 5%, but a decline to 4.5% is anticipated in the third quarter due to weakening exports and a sluggish real estate market [3][13]. - Retail sales showed strong performance in early June, driven by promotional activities, but this may not be sustainable as consumer sentiment weakens [4][10]. Export and Trade - Exports to the U.S. saw a rebound in June, likely due to seasonal demand for the holiday shopping season, but overall export performance remains weak [4][18]. - Container throughput at major ports in China has significantly slowed, indicating a broader decline in trade activity [4][14]. Real Estate Market - The real estate sector remains under pressure, with transaction volumes continuing to decline and fiscal revenues falling short of budget targets [5][22]. - Local governments face increasing fiscal challenges, prompting discussions on expanding budgetary flexibility and potential new financing tools [5][12]. Consumer Spending and Policy Measures - The government is implementing measures to support consumer spending, including financial backing for service consumption and infrastructure development [10][11]. - Structural reforms are necessary for a more balanced economic recovery, focusing on social welfare and tax reforms [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to maintain a growth rate above 5% in the first half of 2024, demonstrating resilience despite external uncertainties and internal challenges [1][2][4]. Economic Performance - In Q1 2024, China's economy grew by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [2][4]. - The retail sales of consumer goods in May 2024 increased by 6.4% year-on-year, marking the highest monthly growth since 2024 [1][3]. - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of retail sales for the first five months of 2024 was 5% [3]. External Trade - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of imports and exports in the first five months was 1.3%, with exports growing by 6% [2]. - Factors contributing to export growth include increased non-U.S. exports, "export grabbing" effects, and "price-for-volume" strategies in U.S. exports [2][4]. Consumer Policies - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted retail sales, with furniture, communication, and home appliance retail sales growing over 20% [3]. - In 2024, the central and local governments allocated approximately 170 billion yuan for the "old-for-new" policy, expected to raise retail sales growth by over 1 percentage point [3]. Investment and Consumption Outlook - There is a need to stimulate both consumption and investment in high-tech sectors and productive services [5]. - The focus should be on stabilizing domestic consumption and investment, with an emphasis on the real estate market and capital market stability [5]. Structural Reforms - The current economic strategy emphasizes the need to shift from investment and export-driven growth to consumption and innovation-driven growth [6][7]. - Reforms in fiscal and tax systems are necessary to enhance local governments' incentives to boost consumption [7]. Monetary Policy - There is still room to lower the reserve requirement ratio, and stabilizing asset prices should be included in monetary policy considerations [7].