金十数据7月4日讯，印尼首席经济部长：在关税谈判中，印尼已提议对美国20种主要出口商品提供近零 关税的优惠待遇。国防采购并未纳入印尼与美国的关税谈判内容。印尼对与美国达成协议持乐观态度， 并计划向美国企业提供参与关键矿产项目投资的机会。 跟踪全球贸易动向 +订阅 印尼对美释放善意 20类出口产品享近零关税 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-07-04原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2508： 1.基本面：伊朗外交部长表示，尽管该国宣布暂停与联合国核监督机构的合作，但将继续与该机构接触； 美国6月非农就业数据超预期，失业率降至4.1%，经季节性因素调整后，6月非农就业人数增加14.7万人， 高于预期的11万人；媒体援引不愿透露姓名的代表称，OPEC+已开始讨论在8月份再增加每日41.1万桶的产 量，此举在该组织本周末的视频会议前已提上议程；中性 2.基差：7月3日，阿曼原油现货价为69.84美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为69.42美元/桶，基差13.66元 /桶，现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存： ...

Core Viewpoint - Maersk estimates that the effective average tariff rate on container goods shipped to the U.S. is 21%, significantly reduced from the peak of 54% prior to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs in April [1] Group 1: Tariff Insights - The effective average tariff rate of 21% is a notable decrease, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [1] - The suspension of reciprocal tariffs is set to expire in July and August, which may impact global trade and consumer sentiment in the coming months [1] Group 2: Market Demand and Client Behavior - Maersk observed strong growth in container demand during the first half of the year, attributed to clients placing orders ahead of tariff announcements [1] - Many large U.S. clients have reduced their reliance on China, with some apparel and fashion clients depending on China to a single-digit percentage, while other products like home improvement goods still show significant reliance on Chinese manufacturing [1]

现在距离美方设定的所谓关税谈判截止日期还剩不到一周时间，欧盟、日本、印度等多方都强调了捍卫 自身利益的坚定立场。欧盟两手准备应对与美关税谈判，3日，欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务 的委员谢夫乔维奇在华盛顿与美国代表举行会谈。欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩当天表示，在关税问题上欧 盟希望通过谈判解决问题，并"准备好与美国达成一项原则性协议"；但若谈判失败，欧盟将坚决采取反 制措施以保护欧洲经济，"所有应对手段都在考虑之中"。目前，美国对欧盟汽车及零部件征收25%关 税，对钢铝产品征收50%关税。同时，美国正考虑将对欧盟的关税进一步扩大到木材、航空零部件、药 品、芯片和关键矿产等领域。(央视新闻) ...

韩国贸易部长将于周五前往美国进行关税谈判。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend rating for the dollar is "oscillating" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in June exceeded expectations, dispelling the expectation of an interest rate cut in July. The employment market remained resilient, but its structure deteriorated. The data supported the Fed to continue to observe cautiously. Market expectations of an interest rate cut cooled further after the data release [1][2][3] - Strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. However, the market underestimated the deterioration of the employment market structure, and the subsequent weakening of the employment market might cause disturbances [4][40] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. US June Non - farm Payrolls Situation - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, exceeding the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, lower than the expected 4.3%. The hourly wage growth rate was 0.2% month - on - month and 3.7% year - on - year, slightly lower than expected and the previous value [2][9] - In terms of industries, new jobs mainly came from education and healthcare (51,000), leisure and hospitality (20,000), and government departments (73,000). Layoffs increased in some sectors such as professional and business services (7,000), wholesale (6,600), and other services (5,000) [2][18] 2. Investment Advice - The overall strong employment data alleviated market concerns about economic downturn and supported market sentiment in the short term. The market was trading around tariff negotiations and tax cut bills. The implementation of the tax cut bill continued to support market risk appetite. The dollar and US Treasury yields stopped falling and rebounded, US stocks were oscillating strongly, and gold still faced a correction risk [4][40]

日本内阁官房副长官青木一彦：与美国进行真诚的关税谈判这一政策保持不变。 ...

Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, better than expected, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1% [11] - The market has reduced expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in July and September following strong employment data [3][11] Trade and Tariffs - U.S. Treasury Secretary warned that about 100 countries may face at least a 10% reciprocal tariff, with Trump set to inform trade partners about unilateral tariff rates [11] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed the House despite two Republican defections, with Trump expected to sign it [14] Oil Production - OPEC+ is discussing an increase in production by 411,000 barrels per day in August [14] Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.77%, S&P 500 up 0.83%, and Nasdaq up over 1.02% [5] - European stock indices also saw gains, with Germany's DAX30 up 0.61% and the UK's FTSE 100 up 0.55% [6] Commodity Prices - Spot gold fell significantly, dropping over $50 to a low of $3,311.65 before closing at $3,325.50 per ounce, down 0.94% [4][8] - WTI crude oil fluctuated around $66, closing down 0.58% at $66.23 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 0.39% to $68.51 [5][8] Chinese Market Developments - The A-share market saw all three major indices close in the green, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.17% [7] - The biotechnology sector showed strength, with several stocks rising over 10% [7]

Core Viewpoint - The US-Japan tariff negotiations have faced significant challenges, with Japan failing to achieve its initial goals and the future of the talks remaining uncertain [1][2][3]. Group 1: Negotiation Dynamics - Japan was one of the first countries to engage with the US after the implementation of indiscriminate tariffs in April, but it has not become the "benchmark" for negotiations as the US initially hoped [1]. - Japan's strategy has involved proposing a comprehensive cooperation plan to the US, including expanding trade and reducing trade deficits, but the US has remained firm on not discussing auto tariffs [2][5]. - The negotiation process has been complicated by structural issues, including the lack of effective communication with key US officials and the ultimate decision-making power resting with the US President [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The US's proposed 25% tariff on imported cars poses a "devastating blow" to Japan's core industries, particularly the automotive sector, which is crucial for Japan's economy [2][5]. - Japan's exports of cars to the US are projected to be around 1.37 million units in 2024, with a total export value of 7.2 trillion yen, accounting for 34% of Japan's exports to the US [5]. Group 3: Political Context - Japan aimed to reach a ministerial consensus before the G7 summit in June, but the lack of substantial progress has hindered the government's ability to showcase achievements ahead of the upcoming Senate elections [3][7]. - The Japanese government faces internal divisions regarding agricultural imports, particularly concerning US rice, which complicates negotiations further [6][7]. - The recent electoral losses for the ruling party and ongoing economic challenges, such as rising prices and slow wage growth, add pressure on the government as it navigates these negotiations [7].

金十数据7月3日讯，日本首相石破茂周四表示，美国总统特朗普对一些关税相关问题的看法可能是基于 误解或错误信息。美国对日本进口产品征收24%对等关税的暂停期将于下周到期。"我们听到特朗普总 统说，没有美国汽车在日本跑，我们不会进口（美国）大米。这可能是基于误解或错误信息，"石破茂 说。事实上，日本最近几个月进口的美国大米数量创历史新高，因为自去年以来，日本国内大米价格飙 升，损害了消费者的利益。不过，石破茂说，与美国的关税谈判正在稳步取得进展，但他没有透露具体 细节。 日本首相石破茂：特朗普可能在一些关税问题上被误导 ...