Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets are significantly affected by the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, with increased market volatility and uncertainty [1][2][3] - In the financial market, the stock market is under pressure, the bond market is in a state of entanglement, and the US dollar index is oscillating at a high level. In the commodity market, prices of energy and some agricultural products are rising, while prices of precious metals are falling [12][13][18] - Different investment strategies are recommended for various asset classes, such as low - position hedging for equity assets, short - term short - selling for bonds, and waiting for opportunities in other assets [24][28] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed is considering reducing the capital adequacy ratio requirements for banks, and the European Central Bank maintains key interest rates. The Bank of England is ready to take action to curb inflation [11][12][13] - Precious metal prices have dropped significantly, but in the long - term, the upward logic of gold remains unchanged. In the short - term, gold prices are in a weak and volatile state [13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Six countries jointly declare to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Netanyahu says Israel will assist the US in reopening the strait, and Trump promises Israel will not attack Iranian oil and gas facilities [15][16][17] - Market risk appetite stabilizes, and the US dollar index oscillates at a high level [18][19] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Israel suspends air strikes on Iranian energy facilities, and Iran attacks Israeli refineries and US military bases [20][21] - The situation in the Middle East is still uncertain, and the US stock market is under pressure. It is expected to operate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's general public budget revenue and expenditure in the first two months show certain growth, and the central bank is committed to maintaining the stability of the financial market [23][24] - Due to the escalating conflict between the US and Iran and the expectation of interest rate hikes, equity assets face short - term headwinds, and it is recommended to hedge with a low position [24][25] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 13 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.15 billion yuan on the day [26] - The bond market is in a state of entanglement. It is risky to chase the rise, and the cost - performance of short - selling in the short - term is slightly higher than that of buying [26][27][28] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The imported Mongolian coking coal market shows mixed price movements. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve [29] - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal are in a state of supply - demand balance. The price fluctuations are mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East [29][30] 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's household appliance exports in February show growth, and the production of key steel enterprises in February decreases year - on - year. The inventory of five major steel products decreases slightly [31][32][33] - The inventory of steel products is decreasing, but the de - stocking amplitude in the future is not optimistic [33] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 to 20 are expected to reach 1.17 million tons [34] - The upward trend of the oil market has paused. The market is cautious due to policy uncertainties, and it needs to wait for policy implementation and pay attention to oil prices [34][35] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - China's corn imports from January to February increase by 207.9% year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has support [36] - The corn price is supported in the short - term, but the market has more long - short games. In the long - term, the price is expected to stabilize and rise [36][37] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US farmers plan to increase soybean planting in 2026, and the USDA weekly export sales report is lower than expected [38][39] - The soybean meal futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, Sino - US relations, and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China [39][40][41] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The US imposes a 109.10% preliminary counter - subsidy tax on Russian palladium [42] - Platinum and palladium prices have dropped. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and pay attention to long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities in the medium - term [43][44] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a discount, and the social inventory of lead ingots increases [45] - The lead price is affected by the macro environment. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [45][46] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a discount, and the domestic zinc inventory decreases [47] - The zinc price is falling, but the fundamentals provide support. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider buying on dips [48] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US's net import dependence on key minerals reaches a 30 - year high, and China's refined copper production in the first two months increases by 9% year - on - year [49][51] - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the positive spread between domestic and foreign markets [50][51] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The auction price of Albemarle's lithium spodumene is CIF SC62018 dollars per ton, and the Zimbabwean government restricts the export of lithium ore [52][53] - The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a significant decline [55][56] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreases [57] - Due to geopolitical risks, the price of fuel oil has an upward risk [57][58] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rates of terminals in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remain stable or increase slightly. The PTA price shows different trends in different contracts [61] - The PTA price is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and there is an upward risk under the continuous geopolitical conflict [62][63] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene production enterprises decreases [64] - The absolute price of styrene has a high - volatility trend. It is recommended to trade with a light position and be vigilant against potential squeeze risks [65][66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US-Iran situation is gradually becoming clear, and the time of the most intense war has passed, but the subsequent long - tail effect still needs attention. The rebound of global risk assets has driven the repair of stock index futures, and the long - position strategy of stock index futures can gradually increase positions [21]. - If the war can end quickly, the negative impact on the bond market from inflation will be significantly weakened, and there are not many negative factors in March, while negative factors will gradually accumulate in Q2 [25][26]. - The US private credit market may face a liquidity shock, and the US dollar index will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [15][16]. - The US stock market is under downward pressure due to the uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and concerns about stagflation, and it is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term [19]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors, including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes. Different commodities have different investment suggestions, such as paying attention to buying opportunities on dips for some commodities and maintaining a wait - and - see attitude for others [22][26][35] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US existing - home sales in February 2026 were 4.09 million units, with a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. Trump signaled a willingness to end the war, but the situation in the Middle East remains uncertain. The short - term trend of precious metals is volatile, and the Middle East situation disturbs the market [10][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - A credit fund with an asset size of $33 billion is facing a redemption of over 7%. The US private credit market may face a liquidity shock, and the US dollar index will maintain a volatile trend in the short term [13][15][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues to escalate. The US Energy Information Administration has raised the forecast of US oil production next year. The short - term situation in the Strait of Hormuz is uncertain, the US stock market is facing downward pressure, and it is expected to operate weakly in a volatile manner in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude recommended [17][18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is researching and reserving a series of policies to support science and innovation. China's imports and exports in the first two months achieved good results. Trump said the war would end soon, driving the repair of the stock index. The long - position strategy of stock index futures can gradually increase positions [20][21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's import and export data in the first two months exceeded expectations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 39.5 billion yuan. If the war ends soon, there are not many negative factors for the bond market in March, while negative factors will gradually accumulate in Q2 [23][25][26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The Mongolian imported coking coal market is running strongly, but the terminal's acceptance of high - priced coal is limited. With the weakening of crude oil trading sentiment, attention should be paid to downstream replenishment [27][28][29]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's automobile exports increased in the first two months, while steel exports decreased. The steel price may be in a volatile pattern in the short term, and a volatile thinking is recommended [30][31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China's soybean imports in the first two months decreased slightly. The USDA report only slightly adjusted the global soybean supply and demand. The short - term trend of soybean meal may be strongly volatile, but its supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and blind chasing of the rise is not recommended [33][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The US corn exports to China were zero in a certain week. The supply and demand of corn are in a multi - factor game situation. In the short term, the market is volatile, and in the medium and long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports increased in the first 10 days of March, and the inventory decreased in February. The short - term market is affected by the Iranian situation, and attention should be paid to the export recovery of Malaysian palm oil and Indonesia's biodiesel policy [39][40][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar production in a certain state increased, and Brazil's sugar exports decreased in the first week of March. The market's expectation of global sugar supply surplus has decreased, and the short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile at a low level [43][44][46]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - The sales volume of some pig companies increased in February, while the sales revenue of some decreased. The pig market is under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to short the near - month contract on rebounds and pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities in the long term [47][48][49]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange issued an announcement on the lithium carbonate futures contract. A trading company signed a lithium purchase agreement. The short - term demand for lithium carbonate is supported, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on dips [50][51][53]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The price of platinum rebounded slightly, and the price of palladium was mainly volatile. The short - term trend of platinum and palladium is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and shorting on palladium in the medium term [54][55]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The price of lead is expected to be volatile at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to buying opportunities on pullbacks [56][57][58]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The price of zinc is running cautiously, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and maintain the idea of positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets in the medium term [59][60]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper imports showed different trends in the first two months. Mongolia is seeking to renegotiate the copper mine contract. The short - term trend of copper is expected to bottom out and rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips and positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [61][63][65]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The short - term supply - demand pattern of tin is weak, and it is expected to operate in a wide - range volatile manner, with limited downward space [66][67][68]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The EIA maintained the forecast of US crude oil production in 2026. An oil refinery in the UAE was attacked. The risk premium of oil prices has declined, and the market has returned to pricing the short - term blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [69][70][71]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the impact of the Iranian situation and supply reduction [72][73]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The price of CEA is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and enterprises with demand can consider buying on dips [73][74][75]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The transportation department约谈ed shipping companies. The European line futures are mainly in a wide - range volatile pattern, and it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment of high - price shipping companies in late March [76][77][78].

Core Viewpoint - Huaming Equipment announced plans to engage in various foreign exchange derivative products, indicating a strategic move to manage currency risk and enhance financial flexibility [1] Group 1: Business Activities - The company and its subsidiaries intend to conduct forward foreign exchange settlements, structured forwards, foreign exchange swaps, foreign exchange futures, foreign exchange options, and other foreign exchange derivative products [1] - The maximum contract value held on any trading day will not exceed the equivalent of 50 million USD [1] - The upper limit for margin and premium utilization will not exceed the equivalent of 10 million USD [1] Group 2: Financial Terms - The approved limits for these activities are set to be reusable within a 12-month period [1] - The funding for these transactions will come from the company's own funds [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] Core View of the Report - The market risk preference fluctuates and rebounds. The stock market mostly rises, bond yields mostly rise slightly, and the US bond yield slightly drops to 4.21%. The US dollar index rises by 0.66% to 97.6, non - US currencies show mixed performance, the gold price rises by 1.4% to $4,964 per ounce, the VIX index rebounds to 17.7, the spot commodity index falls, and Brent crude oil drops by 2.3% to $71 per barrel [1][5][9] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk preference wavers. Most stock markets rise, most bond yields rise slightly, and the US bond yield slightly drops to 4.21%. The US dollar index rises by 0.66% to 97.6, non - US currencies show mixed performance, the gold price rises by 1.4% to $4,964 per ounce, the VIX index rebounds to 17.7, the spot commodity index falls, and Brent crude oil drops by 2.3% to $71 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise, while the US and A - share markets fall. The S&P 500 index drops by 0.1%, the Shanghai Composite Index drops by 1.27%, the Hang Seng Index drops by 3.02%, and the Nikkei 225 index rises by 1.75%. The stock market is gradually digesting the negative impact of Kevin Warsh's potential election as the Fed Chairman, with weak overall sentiment. Tech company earnings reports have an increasing impact on the market. Geopolitical risks cool marginally. The Fed is in a wait - and - see stage, and the US stock market is in the earnings season with potential for increased volatility. Economic data is mixed, and the domestic stock market is expected to be volatile [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rise slightly, and the 10 - year US bond yield slightly drops to 4.21%. The US bond yield stops falling and rebounds due to the unchanged US fiscal refinancing scale. Developed - country bond yields are prone to rise. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield slightly drops to 1.808%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inverts and slightly drops to 239bp. The domestic bond market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival [14][18][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rises by 0.66% to 97.6, and non - US currencies show mixed performance. The offshore RMB rises by 0.41%, the euro drops by 0.31%, the pound drops by 0.55%, the yen drops by 1.58%, the Swiss franc drops by 0.39%, the Canadian dollar, Thai baht, Malaysian ringgit, and Indian rupee fall, while the Australian dollar, South African rand, Brazilian real, and Mexican peso rise [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rises by 1.4% to $4,964 per ounce, and the VIX index rebounds to 17.7. Brent crude oil drops by 2.3% to $71 per barrel. The spot commodity index falls. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals correct, and commodities are under short - term pressure and expected to be volatile [29][30][31] 3. Hotspot Tracking - Market risk preference fluctuates and rebounds. The latest ISM manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations, but the US ADP employment is below expectations, and the labor market shows a weakening trend. The market short - term trades a recession - related liquidity withdrawal scenario, but the risk preference stabilizes on Friday. Geopolitical risks continue to ferment, and the US dollar index may peak in the short term [32][34][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: China's December financial data to be released; Tuesday: US December retail sales; Wednesday: China's January CPI and PPI, US January non - farm payrolls; Thursday: US January PPI and initial jobless claims; Friday: US January CPI [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical risks are rising, which is the dominant factor in the market. The US dollar is under short - term downward pressure, and asset prices are biased towards safe - haven assets [2][34][35] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite has cooled. Most stock markets have fallen, and most bond yields have rebounded. The US Treasury yield has risen to 4.22%. The US dollar index has dropped 1.8% to 97.6. Most non - US currencies have appreciated. Gold prices have soared 8.5% to $4987 per ounce. The VIX index has rebounded to 16. The spot commodity index has closed up, and Brent crude oil has risen 0.7% to $68 per barrel [1][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets have fallen. The S&P 500 has dropped 0.35%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has risen 0.84%. Geopolitical risks have led to a decline in US stocks, and the subsequent easing of tensions has only slightly alleviated market sentiment. Geopolitical factors remain a major market influence. The Japanese central bank has maintained its policy rate but raised economic and inflation expectations. The Chinese stock market has shown high - level oscillations [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Most global bond yields have rebounded, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising to 4.22%. Developed - country bond yields face upward risks. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield has slightly declined to 1.828%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread inversion has widened to 239bp. The domestic bond market has continued its oscillating trend [14][18][21] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index has dropped 1.8% to 97.6, and most non - US currencies have appreciated. Offshore RMB has risen 0.26%, the euro has risen 1.94%, the pound has risen 1.93%, the yen has risen 1.53%, the Swiss franc has risen 2.88%, the Australian and New Zealand dollars have risen over 3%, and the Canadian dollar, real, rand, ringgit, peso, etc. have risen over 1% [24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold has soared 8.5% to $4987 per ounce, and silver has broken through the $100 per ounce mark. Brent crude oil has risen 0.7% to $68 per barrel. The commodity spot index has closed up [27][28] 3.3 Hot - Spot Tracking - Geopolitical risks have significantly increased, and the US dollar has weakened. Trump's actions and attitudes have led to continued geopolitical instability, and the market's de - dollarization trading has intensified in the short term [29][34] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US November durable goods orders - Tuesday: China's January - February industrial enterprise profits - Wednesday: Bank of Japan interest rate meeting minutes, Bank of Canada interest rate meeting - Thursday: Federal Reserve interest rate meeting, US December core PCE - Friday: Eurozone Q4 GDP, US December PPI [36]

Core Viewpoint - On January 20, 2026, Sanqi Interactive Entertainment (002555) reported a closing price of 27.23 yuan, down 2.99% from the previous trading day, with a total market capitalization of 60.239 billion yuan [1] Group 1 - The stock opened at 28.4 yuan, reached a high of 28.56 yuan, and a low of 26.78 yuan, with a trading volume of 2.261 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 5.19% [1] - The company held its fifth meeting of the seventh board of directors on January 20, 2026, where it approved a proposal for the company and its subsidiaries to engage in foreign exchange hedging activities [1] - The approved foreign exchange hedging business has a limit of 800 million USD or equivalent currencies, with a term of 12 months from the date of board approval, and is intended to mitigate adverse impacts from exchange rate fluctuations on operations [1] Group 2 - The hedging activities will include forward foreign exchange contracts, foreign exchange swaps, foreign exchange futures, and foreign exchange options, primarily involving USD and HKD as settlement currencies [1] - The funding for these activities will come from the company's own funds and will not involve raised capital [1] - The company has established relevant management systems to clarify operational principles, approval authority, and risk control measures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for a comprehensive upgrade of Shanghai's "five centers" by 2035, with a goal of doubling the per capita GDP compared to 2020 [1][3]. Group 1: Five Centers Development - The "five centers" include international economic, financial, trade, shipping, and technological innovation centers, with the international financial center being a key component [3]. - The plan emphasizes innovation-driven and coordinated development, enhancing global resource allocation, technological innovation, and high-end industry leadership [3]. Group 2: Enhancing International Financial Center Competitiveness - The strategy to enhance the competitiveness and influence of the international financial center will focus on three areas: building a global RMB asset allocation center, improving the modern financial system, and enhancing financial services for the real economy [4]. Group 3: Global RMB Asset Allocation Center - The plan includes expanding cross-border and offshore financial services, deepening cross-border investment and settlement facilitation, and optimizing offshore account systems [5]. - It aims to promote the internationalization of the RMB by enriching RMB-denominated financial products and enhancing international reinsurance capabilities [5]. Group 4: Modern Financial System - The proposal calls for a robust financial market system, promoting direct financing, and enhancing the functions of capital markets [6]. - It encourages the establishment of diverse and specialized financial products and services, and supports the development of financial infrastructure [6]. Group 5: Financial Services for the Real Economy - The plan emphasizes the development of technology finance, green finance, and inclusive finance to address financing challenges for small and medium-sized enterprises [7]. - It also highlights the importance of pension finance and digital finance innovations, including the application of digital RMB [7]. Group 6: RMB Foreign Exchange Futures Trading Pilot - The suggestion to explore the pilot of RMB foreign exchange futures trading has been reiterated in multiple policy documents, indicating a significant step in the development of China's foreign exchange market [8][9]. - The collaboration between the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission to promote RMB foreign exchange futures is seen as a major advancement in regulatory coordination [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - A-shares started 2026 with a strong performance, and technology stocks are expected to remain the main theme in the near term. The market may continue to strengthen without further negative news [1][22]. - The US ISM manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, indicating a further weakening of the real economy and a short - term decline in the US dollar [2][16]. - The precious metals market was boosted by the Venezuelan situation, but the impact is limited. There may be short - term selling pressure due to the adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [3][12]. - The cotton market is currently dominated by capital, and there is a risk of a decline if capital exits [4][33]. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, with the increase in iron - water production putting pressure on finished - product inventories [5][36]. - Copper prices may fluctuate upward, mainly driven by macro - sentiment, while the fundamentals are currently inconsistent with the price increase [6][52]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US may subsidize the reconstruction of Venezuela's oil infrastructure. The precious metals market was boosted by the Venezuelan situation, but the short - term impact is limited. The adjustment of the Bloomberg commodity index weight will bring short - term selling pressure. The 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was slightly lower than expected, mainly due to the inventory component [11][12]. - Investment advice: The short - term price of precious metals will fluctuate, and there is a risk of a decline. The gold - silver ratio is expected to rise [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - AI is causing large enterprises to slow down their recruitment. The US ISM manufacturing index hit a one - year low, with the index falling from 48.2 in November to 47.9 and remaining below the 50 mark for the 10th consecutive month. Venezuelan President Maduro pleaded not guilty in the US court. - The US real economy is further weakening, and the US dollar is expected to decline in the short term [14][15][16]. - Investment advice: The US dollar will weaken in the short term [17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US 12 - month ISM manufacturing PMI unexpectedly shrank, with new orders contracting for the fourth consecutive month, weak export orders, and a continued decline in employment. The overall index was mainly dragged down by the accelerated inventory decline. - Fed official Kashkari said the US interest rate is close to the neutral level. The geopolitical risk has limited impact on the US stock market, and the three major stock indexes rose. The US stock market is expected to remain volatile and strong [18][19]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is expected to operate in a volatile and upward manner, and a long - position approach is recommended [20]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares started 2026 with a strong performance, with nearly 4,200 stocks rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.38%, and the trading volume increased. Nine departments jointly issued a notice to promote green consumption. - The market sentiment is high, and technology stocks are expected to be the main theme. The market may continue to strengthen without further negative news [21][22]. - Investment advice: Continue to hold long positions in stock index futures and allocate evenly among different stock indexes [23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 135 - million - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 46.88 billion yuan. - The bond market has been weak recently due to multiple factors. The new fee regulations are beneficial to the bond market, but they cannot change the current situation of many macro and micro negatives. The bond market is facing an unfavorable situation at the beginning of 2026, with potential risks of decline if economic indicators exceed expectations [24][25]. - Investment advice: Consider short - hedging strategies and maintain a certain short - hedging position [26]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - In the first week of 2026, the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased, while the apparent consumption of soybean meal decreased. In December 2025, about 9.0968 million tons of imported soybeans arrived at domestic oil mills, and about 2.301 million tons arrived in the first week of 2026. - The international soybean market has not changed much, and the domestic soybean meal supply - demand situation remains weak. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills has increased [27][28]. - Investment advice: If South American soybeans have a good harvest, the May contract of soybean meal will remain weak. Continue to monitor national reserve and customs policies [29]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's textile and clothing imports decreased, and the imports from China decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. India's cotton production is expected to decline by 1.7% in the 2026 cotton year, and the revenue and profit of related enterprises are also expected to decline. The spot cotton market has a cold trading atmosphere, and ginneries are reluctant to sell at low prices. - Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a volatile trend on January 5. The technical and market sentiment are still bullish, but there is a risk of a decline if capital exits due to factors such as the deterioration of cotton yarn production profits and poor price transmission [30][31][33]. - Investment advice: Be vigilant against the risk of a decline if capital exits [34]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Vietnam continued to impose anti - dumping duties on Chinese cold - rolled carbon steel coils for five years, with the tax rate remaining between 4.43% and 25.22%. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales reached 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. - Steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The increase in iron - water production will put pressure on finished - product inventories, and the change in exports also needs attention [35][36]. - Investment advice: Adopt a volatile approach to steel prices in the short term [37]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to reach a nearly seven - year high in December due to strong production and weak exports. - The palm oil market was weak. The market is expected to see a gradual relief of supply pressure with the continued production reduction in January and the start of Ramadan stocking. - Investment advice: Wait for the signal of supply - pressure relief in January and then gradually build long positions in the May contract [38][39][40]. 2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - On January 5, the price difference between imported steam coal and domestic steam coal was reported. Some traders are optimistic about the short - term coal price and are reluctant to sell, but there are few transactions in the market. - After a continuous decline in December, coal prices stabilized before the New Year's Day. The coal consumption is in a negative - growth state, and the supply side may change. Attention should be paid to whether coal mines will actively reduce production in January [41]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the coal - mine start - up situation in January [42]. 2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - In 2025, more than 11.5 million vehicles were traded in the "trade - in" program. - The iron - ore market remains volatile. With the stabilization of iron - water production in January and low inventory in downstream steel mills, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. The market is concerned about the steel - mill restocking situation in January [43]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the steel - mill restocking situation in January [44]. 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - In the statistical period from December 22 to December 28, 2025, the weighted average price of photovoltaic modules was 0.74 yuan/watt, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/watt compared with the previous period. The polysilicon transaction price increased, and the production schedule began to decline. - In January, the polysilicon production is expected to be about 105,000 tons, and the sales quota is about 60,000 tons. Although the production is still in surplus, the actual supply is less than the demand in terms of the sales quota. The polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [45][46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips. Be cautious when holding positions due to large market fluctuations and regulatory measures [47]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration issued a guide to promote the high - quality development of the power grid. In the previous week, industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Sichuan decreased, and the inventory increased. The production cuts in January may lead to a tight balance, but if the cuts are not sustainable, there will be a large - scale inventory accumulation in 2026. - Some large factories started hedging sales after the price increase, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high [48][49]. - Investment advice: Consider short - selling opportunities on rebounds [49]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The new solid - waste management regulations will affect the approval of non - ferrous metal beneficiation projects. The Chilean government is trying to resolve a copper mine strike. The global data center's copper consumption is expected to increase to 740,000 tons in 2026. - Macro - factors continue to support copper prices, but the fundamentals are inconsistent with the price increase in the short term. The domestic copper inventory is expected to increase in January, which will limit the price increase [50][51][52]. - Investment advice: On the long - only side, it is recommended to buy on dips; on the arbitrage side, it is recommended to wait and see [53]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Jien Nickel's 60,000 - ton nickel sulfate project in Pan Shi was put into operation. Due to the non - approval of the nickel - ore RKAB quota in 2026, Vale Indonesia's nickel - ore mining in some areas was suspended. - The suspension has little short - term impact on the supply and demand, but it shows that Indonesia's raw - material supply is tightening. The current price is close to the full cost of NPI, and if the price remains high, some production may resume. The refined - nickel production in January is expected to increase [55][56]. - Investment advice: Consider long - position opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the strategy of selling out - of - the - money puts and buying deep - out - of - the - money calls, and closely monitor the quota release [57]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Tianci Materials plans to conduct a 20 - 30 - day maintenance on its 150,000 - ton liquid lithium hexafluorophosphate production line. - The lithium - carbonate futures price continued to rise. The market is sensitive to positive news. The inventory reduction slowed down last week, the production increased, and the downstream demand is weak. There is a risk of a short - term correction [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: Existing long - position holders can gradually take profits. Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the medium term [60]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - Ganfeng Lithium's 2.4 - million - ton/year lithium - tin polymetallic mine in Inner Mongolia has been approved, and the mining equipment is being delivered. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME tin inventory increased. The tin - ore supply is still tight, and the demand is weak. The spot market trading is average [60][61][62]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the supply recovery and demand improvement, and be vigilant against the price decline when the capital enthusiasm fades [63]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US Energy Secretary plans to meet with oil industry leaders to discuss the "restart" of Venezuela's energy sector. - The oil price first fell and then rose. The change in the Venezuelan situation had little impact on the oil price. There is a high risk of a short - term production decline in Venezuela, and it is difficult to reverse the long - term production decline in the short term. The market has not fully priced in the supply surplus [64][65]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of geopolitical conflicts [66]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - As of January 4, the inventory of asphalt refineries and social inventories increased. The US attack on Venezuela led to the suspension of Venezuelan oil exports and production, strengthening the cost support for asphalt. - The asphalt price was boosted in the short term, but the risk premium may gradually decline [66][67]. - Investment advice: The asphalt price is boosted in the short term, but the risk premium may fade away [67]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong remained stable on January 5. The supply of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was stable, and the downstream demand was weak. - The caustic - soda futures price fell significantly. The supply is at a high level, the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [68][69][70]. - Investment advice: The caustic - soda market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers decreased at the end of 2025. The urea price fluctuated upward. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand from compound - fertilizer enterprises is weak. India's urea tender and the supply reduction in Iran support the international urea price. - The inventory of urea enterprises is decreasing, but the inventory - reduction rate may slow down in the future. Do not chase the rise now. Pay attention to the spring - plowing fertilizer - stocking demand and export - policy changes after the New Year [71][72][73]. - Investment advice: Do not chase the rise now. Consider long - position opportunities after the New Year when there is a certain safety margin [73]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - As of January 5, 2026, the pure - benzene inventory in East China ports increased. The pure - benzene market has a high inventory problem, and the demand depends on the restart and load increase of downstream styrene plants. The styrene market is affected by export news and maintenance, and it is expected to be difficult to strengthen further. - The pure - benzene market is expected to remain in a bottom - grinding stage, and the short - term profit growth of styrene is limited. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [74][75][76]. - Investment advice: The pure - benzene market is in a bottom - grinding stage, and the short - term profit growth of styrene is limited. Pay attention to the cost - side changes [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The US GDP in Q3 exceeded expectations, with an annualized quarterly - on - quarterly initial value of 4.3%, much higher than the expected 3.3%. Although the US economy performed better than expected in 2025, there are still risks. The subsequent consumption momentum is expected to slow down, and the economy has not yet entered a recovery cycle. The recent strong performance of commodities is due to the expectation of significant monetary policy easing and the resulting long - term inflation increase [2][37] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite remained high. Most stock markets rose, and most bond yields declined. The US Treasury yield dropped to 4.13%. The US dollar index fell 0.41% to 98, and most non - US currencies appreciated. Gold prices rose 4.5% to $4533 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 13.6, and the spot commodity index closed up. Brent crude oil rose 0.47% to $60.33 per barrel [1][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. The S&P 500 index rose 1.4%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.88%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.5%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 2.51%. The US economy in Q3 exceeded expectations, but the subsequent consumption momentum may slow down. The Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle in 2026, which supports the stock market. Domestic stocks showed resilience, with aerospace becoming a popular sector [10][11] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.13%. The US economy has resilience, and the downward space for US Treasury yields is limited. Developed - country bond yields have upward potential. The emerging - market bond market showed mixed performance, and the pressure on the US dollar to weaken decreased. The domestic bond market was weakly oscillating [14][18][21] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fell 0.41% to 98, and most non - US currencies appreciated. The offshore RMB rose 0.42%, the euro rose 0.53%, the pound rose 0.87%, and the yen rose 0.75% [26][29] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold rose 4.5% to $4533 per ounce, and silver prices rose 18.3% in a single week. Brent crude oil rose 0.47% to $60.33 per barrel. The commodity spot index closed up, and the short - term risk of precious metals and non - ferrous metals increased significantly [30][32] 3.3 Hot - Spot Tracking - The US Q3 GDP exceeded expectations, and commodities accelerated their rise. The strong performance of commodities is due to the expectation of significant monetary policy easing and the resulting long - term inflation increase [33][37] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US new housing starts and building permits in November - Tuesday: US Chicago PMI in December - Wednesday: China's official manufacturing PMI in December, US initial jobless claims for the week - Thursday and Friday: New Year's Day holiday closure; Eurozone and US December manufacturing PMI final values [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US labor market is weakening as the number of initial jobless claims has reached the highest increase since 2020, causing the US dollar index to decline [17][20]. - A - shares are facing challenges as the tone of the Central Economic Work Conference is prudent, with potentially fewer incremental policies and limited profit - repair elasticity next year [22]. - The bond market has strengthened rapidly due to the unexpected monetary policy statement in the economic work conference, but the room for further increase is limited, and it will gradually enter a relatively strong oscillation [26]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures are firm due to high spot basis, strong willingness of industrial giants to take delivery, and high downstream demand, but short - term chasing is not recommended [4][36]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the decline is supported by iron - water rigid demand, and port inventories will continue to accumulate [42]. - Zinc prices may rise as the short - term LME zinc delivery risk intensifies, and a bargain - hunting approach is advisable before December 17 [6][69]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US House of Representatives rejected the impeachment of Trump. Gold prices rose 2% due to the Fed's dovish rate cut and increased expectations of domestic RRR and rate cuts. There is a risk of over - heating in commodity sentiment [13][15]. - Investment advice: Gold prices will oscillate, and silver will be more volatile. Pay attention to risks [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 44,000, the largest increase since 2020. The labor market is weakening, and the US dollar index will continue to decline [17][20]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will continue to decline [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The World Bank raised China's economic growth forecast for 2025 to 4.9%. The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized a prudent policy tone. The A - share market is facing challenges [21][22]. - Investment advice: Allocate long positions in stock indices evenly [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Broadcom's Q4 performance exceeded expectations. The US stock market is expected to oscillate strongly supported by the Fed's rate cut and liquidity release [23]. - Investment advice: The US stock market will remain oscillating strongly at the end of the year. Pay attention to economic data [24]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The economic work conference proposed to use RRR and rate cuts flexibly. The bond market has strengthened rapidly, but the upward space is limited and will enter a relatively strong oscillation [25][26]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach [27]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - CONAB lowered Brazil's soybean production forecast by 550,000 tons to 177.12 million tons. The domestic soybean auction had a 77.5% transaction rate, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal continued to widen [28][30]. - Investment advice: The main contract of soybean meal will oscillate. If South American production is normal, short on rallies. Pay attention to China's soybean purchases, state - reserve actions, and South American weather [30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil production from December 1 - 10 increased by 6.87%. German legislation is beneficial to rapeseed oil, and domestic customs inspections are stricter [31]. - Investment advice: Rapeseed oil may stabilize and decline. Palm oil prices will be suppressed by supply pressure. Pay attention to Indonesia's supply and demand - side procurement [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Xinjiang cotton enterprises are actively selling at spot prices. Zhengzhou cotton futures are firm due to high basis and strong downstream demand, but short - term chasing is not recommended [33][36]. - Investment advice: Do not chase the rise in the short term [37]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises' operating rates are high, and inventory has slightly decreased. The short - term inventory pressure is acceptable, and the rice - flour price difference will oscillate [38]. - Investment advice: Use a spread strategy around the current North China processing cost range [39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Mongolia plans to increase coal exports to 100 million tons in 2027. Steam coal prices are expected to continue to fall until mid - to late January [40][41]. - Investment advice: Coal prices will continue to fall until mid - to late January [41]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - It is expected that the sales area of new commercial housing in 2026 will decline by 6.2% year - on - year. Iron ore prices will oscillate weakly, and port inventories will continue to accumulate [42]. - Investment advice: Iron ore prices will oscillate weakly [42]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Tangrenshen expects its meat product revenue to exceed 1.6 billion yuan in 2025. The pig market is trading the problem of oversupply, and there is a risk of price decline [43][45]. - Investment advice: Close short positions in the near - term contracts and trade the far - term contracts in a short - term range [45]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn processing enterprises' inventories have increased, and port inventories have changed. Corn futures may oscillate weakly, and spreads may show an inverse spread [45][47]. - Investment advice: Contracts 03 and 05 may oscillate weakly. Pay attention to policy regulation and expectations [47]. 3.2.9 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - It is expected that the sales area of new commercial housing in 2026 will decline by 6.2% year - on - year. Steel prices will oscillate, and the upper and lower limits are limited [48][51]. - Investment advice: Adopt an oscillating trading strategy for steel prices [52]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Hebei is under pressure. The coking coal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and prices may oscillate in the short term [53]. - Investment advice: The market may oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to restocking [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chile's Codelco's copper production decreased in October. Macro factors support copper prices, and the spot premium may be under pressure [54][58]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips for copper prices [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A polysilicon platform company is being established. The polysilicon industry has inventory accumulation, and prices may stop falling. Futures can be bought on dips, and options can sell out - of - the - money put options [60][62]. - Investment advice: Spot prices may stop falling. Consider long positions in futures and selling put options in options [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The US added 11.7GW of photovoltaic capacity in Q3. The industrial silicon market has weak demand and may accumulate inventory. Short on rallies after rebounds [63][64]. - Investment advice: Short on rallies after rebounds [65]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead 0 - 3 spread is at a discount. The lead market is oscillating, and the delivery risk has decreased. Observe the delivery volume [66]. - Investment advice: Wait and see for lead trading [66]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Zinc ingot inventory has decreased, and the LME zinc delivery risk has intensified. Zinc prices may rise, and buy on dips before December 17 [67][69]. - Investment advice: Go long on dips for zinc. Hold positive - spread positions and wait and see for cross - border trading [70][71]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia warned mining companies. Nickel is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and the medium - term impact of Indonesia's policies needs to be evaluated [72][73]. - Investment advice: Nickel will oscillate at a low level in the short term. Evaluate Indonesia's policies in the medium term [73]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Albemarle completed a lithium extraction pilot plant. The lithium carbonate market may be supported in the short term but may decline in the off - season. Consider long positions on dips [74]. - Investment advice: The short - term market may be under pressure, and long on dips in the medium - to - long term [75]. 3.2.18 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - South Korea plans to build a chip factory, and the US wants to transfer Taiwan's semiconductor supply chain. Tin prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. Buy on dips and avoid chasing highs [76][80]. - Investment advice: Tin prices will oscillate at a high level. Buy on dips and avoid chasing highs [80]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price closed at 57.41 yuan/ton on December 11, down 2.53%. The market will oscillate in the short term [81]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will oscillate in the short term [83]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea enterprise inventory decreased by 5.63 million tons to 1.2342 million tons. Urea prices are oscillating weakly. The 01 contract has limited upward space, and the 05 contract can be considered for long positions after getting a safety margin [83][85]. - Investment advice: The 01 contract's trading range remains unchanged, and consider long positions in the 05 contract after getting a safety margin [85]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has risen locally. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is stable. The short - term market may be weak, and pay attention to supply reduction due to profit compression [87][89]. - Investment advice: The short - term market may be weak. Pay attention to supply reduction due to profit compression [89]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price has declined. PVC supply is high, demand is weak, and the price is dragged down by coal prices. The market will remain weak, and short - selling is not cost - effective [90][92]. - Investment advice: The PVC market will remain weak. Avoid short - selling at low valuations [92]. 3.2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Portugal and Italy will have strikes, which may affect container transportation. The PA price may decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [93]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term [94].