日度报告——综合晨报 美国 9 月零售数据不及预期，A 股高开高走继 续缩量 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-11-26 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 9 月份零售销售小幅增长 美国最新的零售数据不及预期，9 月份零售数据表明了经济走弱 压力上升，叠加劳动力市场疲弱，12 月降息基本确定。 宏观策略（股指期货） 外交部：中美元首通话是美方发起 综 A 股高开高走，震荡反弹。目前中日关系依然有较大的不确定性， 因此市场观望情绪仍旧浓厚，成交依旧缩量。短期内维持高位 震荡的判断。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 3021 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 债市情绪已经转弱，后续若出现反弹，可以把握短线空头机会。 农产品（豆粕） 截至 10 月 9 日一周美豆出口净销售 78.5 万吨 供需面变动不大，预计期价暂时维持震荡，继续关注我国实际 采购美豆情况及南美产区天气。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 赣锋锂业 8 万吨磷酸铁锂项目预计 2026 年投产 需求成色仍待验证，不建议追多，若复产叠加淡季需求回落， 可右侧轻仓布空，但中长线仍以回调做多思路对待。 能源化工（原油） 油价跌幅较大，俄乌谈判 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The release of the September non - farm payroll data in the US after the government ended the shutdown showed that the job market continued to cool but without significant deterioration. The data did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the stock market was significantly suppressed. The Fed's stance on a December rate cut is uncertain, and the market's expectation of liquidity tightening has changed, with the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [2][33] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined, most stocks fell, bond yields mostly decreased, and the US bond yield dropped to 4.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, non - US currencies depreciated, gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 23.4, and the spot commodity index declined, with Brent crude oil dropping 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel [1][5][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly declined, with significant drops in US and A - shares. The September non - farm payroll report did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the Fed's internal differences intensified. The stock market was suppressed, and it is expected that the stock market will continue to oscillate weakly [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping to 4.06%. The decline was driven by the inflow of funds from the falling stock market. However, the Fed's hawkish stance limited the downward space of long - term bond yields. The domestic bond market in China oscillated weakly [14][17][20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, and all non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB gained 0.08%, the euro fell 0.94%, the pound fell 0.55%, the yen fell 1.2%, and others also declined [23][24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, and it is in an oscillating pattern with a risk of decline. Brent crude oil fell 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel, and the commodity spot index declined due to the weak supply - demand pattern of oil and the strong US dollar [27][29][32] 3.3 Hotspot Tracking - The September US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the number of new jobs being 119,000, higher than the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the wage growth rate remained high at 3.8% year - on - year [2][31][33] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index - Tuesday: US September retail sales, PPI, housing price index; US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - Wednesday: US weekly initial jobless claims, September durable goods orders and new home sales; US November Chicago PMI - Thursday: Eurozone November economic sentiment index; Fed releases the Beige Book; ECB October interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: France and Germany October CPI [35]

期货研究报告|外汇专题报告 2025-11-19 结售汇降温，市场静待再定价 研究院 高聪 021-60828524 gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 联系人 朱思谋 0755-23887993 zhusimou@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03142856 研究员 蔡劭立 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 核心观点 10 月结售汇顺差明显回落，企业在即期与远期端的结汇、购汇及套保安排均较上月更 为平缓。涉外收付款经常项目顺差升至年内高位，货物贸易仍是主要贡献项，资本与 金融项目的净流出压力同步减轻。美元兑人民币在关键数据延后发布背景下维持再定 价走势，短期预计继续围绕 7.10 一线震荡。 ■ 数据核心看点 10 月结售汇顺差明显收窄。当月银行结售汇顺差从 510.23 亿美元下降至 176.79 亿 美元，代客顺差收窄至 214.26 亿美元，银行自身逆差扩大至 -37.48 亿美元，反映企 业与居民部门的结售汇行为与上月相比更为平稳。 企业在即期与远期端的结售汇和套保节奏均有所调整。即期成交量升至 428.96 亿美 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite is fluctuating, with most global stock markets rebounding, most bond yields rising, and the US dollar index falling. The market is affected by factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, data uncertainties, and changes in tariff policies [1][11] - Liquidity crunch occurs repeatedly, leading to increased market volatility. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has changed, and asset prices are sensitive to liquidity changes [33][37] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market This Week Overview - Market risk appetite is wavering. Most stock markets rebound, most bond yields rise, the US dollar index drops 0.31% to 99.3, most non - US currencies appreciate, gold rebounds 2.1% to $4081 per ounce, the VIX index rises to 19.8, the spot commodity index closes higher, and Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $63.74 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rebound. The S&P 500 in the US rises 0.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index in China falls 0.18%. The end of the US government shutdown, data uncertainties, and changes in tariff policies affect the market. In China, the weak economic data in October puts pressure on the stock market [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rise, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield reaching 4.14%. The end of the US government shutdown and potential fiscal deficit increase pressure on long - term bonds. Developed countries' monetary policies are on hold, and the domestic bond market in China is volatile [14][19][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.31% to 99.3, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Offshore RMB rises 0.38%, the euro rises 0.47%, the British pound rises 0.08%, the Japanese yen drops 0.74%, the Swiss franc rises 1.39%, and some other currencies also show gains [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold rebounds 2.1% to $4084 per ounce, affected by expectations of the Fed's policy shift. However, after the end of the US government shutdown and hawkish remarks from Fed officials, it gives back some gains. Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $63.74 per barrel, and the supply - demand pattern for oil remains weak [29][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - Liquidity crunch occurs repeatedly, causing increased market volatility. The market experiences a significant turnaround from the beginning to the end of the week due to data uncertainties and hawkish signals from the Fed [33][37] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: Japan's Q3 GDP, US November New York Fed Manufacturing Index - Tuesday: US November NAHB Housing Market Index - Wednesday: UK and Eurozone October CPI - Thursday: US weekly initial jobless claims, November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US September non - farm payrolls - Friday: Japan's October CPI, US November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government shutdown has led to a passive tightening of liquidity, increasing market volatility. Once the shutdown ends, market sentiment is expected to be boosted. The US economy has not yet entered a recession, but the employment market is showing a clear weakening trend, and the economic outlook is pessimistic. The current situation of liquidity tightening may present a good entry opportunity, as it is expected to be temporary. Once the government reopens and the liquidity tightens eases, market risk appetite will recover [2][10][32] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined, most global stock markets fell, and most bond yields rose. The US Treasury yield slightly increased to 4.09%. The US dollar index dropped 0.2% to 99.6, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB slightly declined by 0.05%, while the euro rose 0.25%, the pound rose 0.07%, and the yen rose 0.37%. Gold prices fluctuated around $4000 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 19, and the spot commodity index declined. Brent crude oil dropped 2.2% to $63.78 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets fell. In developed markets, the S&P 500 dropped 1.63%, and the Eurozone stock markets mostly declined. In emerging markets, most stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.08% and the Hang Seng Index rising 1.29%, while the Nikkei 225 index dropped 4.07%. The US government shutdown has dragged down the economy and employment, and the tightening of financial market liquidity has increased market volatility. The US stock market's upward trend has slowed, and concerns about high valuations and potential AI industry bubbles have increased. The domestic stock market is fluctuating at a high level, and the divergence between stock market performance and fundamentals persists [9][10][12] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields showed mixed performance. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.09%. The US government's continued shutdown, tightened financial market liquidity, and better - than - expected ADP employment data in October have reduced market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. The Bank of England kept its policy unchanged, and the yields of major global government bonds tend to rise. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rebounded to 1.808%, and the domestic bond market continued to fluctuate [13][16][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.2% to 99.6, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB slightly declined by 0.05%, the euro rose 0.25%, the pound rose 0.07%, the yen rose 0.37%, the Swiss franc dropped 0.07%, the South Korean won dropped 2.2%, the New Zealand dollar dropped 1.8%, and the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Indian rupee closed down, while the peso, real, and ringgit closed up [22][23][25] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold oscillated slightly lower, closing at $4001 per ounce. The international gold price is fluctuating around $4000, with some bottom - fishing signs in the market. However, the uncertainty of a Fed rate cut in December and the temporary liquidity tightening in the US financial market have increased market volatility, and gold lacks upward momentum in the short term. Brent crude oil dropped 2.2% to $63.78 per barrel, and the supply - demand pattern of oil prices remains weak, with the commodity spot index closing down [26][28] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The government shutdown has led to passive liquidity tightening. The balance in the US Treasury's TGA account has significantly increased, resulting in a passive tightening effect, raising overnight interest rates and the US dollar index. This has led to a weakening of market risk appetite, and most assets have declined. It is expected that the government will reopen soon, and once it does, market risk appetite will recover [29][31][32] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: Release of the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes - Tuesday: Release of the US October NFIB Small Business Confidence Index - Wednesday: US Treasury Secretary Besent will give a speech - Thursday: Release of the Bank of Canada's interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: Release of China's October social retail sales and industrial added value [34]

Core Insights - The article discusses the achievements and future directions of China's futures market as it transitions from the "14th Five-Year Plan" to the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the need for high-quality development and alignment with national strategies [1][10]. Regulatory Framework - The regulatory framework of China's futures market has been significantly enhanced during the "14th Five-Year Plan," with the establishment of a comprehensive legal system that defines the market's role in serving the real economy [2]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments have issued guidelines to strengthen regulation and prevent risks, ensuring a balance between innovation and systemic risk prevention [2]. Product Innovation - A total of 61 new futures and options products were launched during the "14th Five-Year Plan," covering key sectors such as agriculture, energy, chemicals, and metals, thereby enhancing the market's ability to serve the real economy [2]. - The innovation in product offerings has transformed futures tools from optional to essential for enterprises, providing diverse hedging options to meet various industry needs [2]. Shortcomings and Upgrading Directions - The futures market still faces challenges, including gaps in product structure, particularly in strategic areas like green electricity and carbon trading, which have yet to be fully developed [3]. - Regulatory collaboration is hindered by inefficiencies in data sharing and risk identification, which need to be improved to meet the requirements of comprehensive development and safety [3]. - The level of internationalization remains at a basic stage, with low participation from foreign investors despite the growth in the number of internationalized products [3]. Strategic Upgrades - The focus should shift from merely providing tools to empowering strategic initiatives, aligning product innovation with national priorities [4]. - A proactive risk management approach is necessary, moving from compliance-based regulation to risk prediction and early intervention [4]. - The market should transition from product openness to institutional openness, optimizing mechanisms for cross-border transactions and investor management [4]. Future Outlook - The "15th Five-Year Plan" will prioritize product innovation in strategic areas, particularly in supporting green and low-carbon transitions, such as the introduction of carbon trading futures [5]. - Enhancements in the financial derivatives system will include the development of foreign exchange futures and the expansion of stock index futures and options [5]. - The futures market should also focus on developing region-specific agricultural products and commodity index derivatives to meet diverse investor needs [6]. Risk Management - A modern risk management system is essential, integrating technology to enhance monitoring and response capabilities [7]. - The use of big data and AI in regulatory practices will improve the precision and efficiency of risk management [7]. - Establishing a regulatory sandbox for innovative financial products can balance innovation incentives with risk control [7]. High-Level Openness - The futures market should evolve from a one-way opening to a dual-direction integration, enhancing both inbound and outbound investment opportunities [8]. - Optimizing participation mechanisms for foreign investors and establishing cross-border clearing systems will facilitate greater international engagement [8]. - A comprehensive monitoring system for cross-border funds is necessary to ensure a balanced approach to openness and risk management [8]. Ecosystem Development - The development of the futures market should move from isolated growth to collaborative ecosystems, emphasizing technology integration and talent development [9]. - Building a digital delivery platform and enhancing transparency in transactions will strengthen market trust [9]. - There is a need for cultivating versatile talent capable of navigating the complexities of an open and innovative market environment [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - The US economy still shows some resilience, with inflation generally under control and the market fully pricing in expectations of a 25bp rate cut in the October meeting and two more rate cuts within the year. The Fed's stance on the pace of balance sheet reduction in the October meeting needs attention. The impact of the government shutdown is expected to be reflected in November data, and tariff issues also pressure business confidence. The short - term trend of the US dollar is oscillatory, while gold is weak in the short - term but the long - term bullish market expectation remains unchanged. Brent crude oil prices have risen due to supply - side concerns [2][11][32] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite rebounded, most stock markets rose, most bond yields increased, and the US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4%. The US dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.9, most non - US currencies depreciated, the offshore RMB slightly rose 0.1%, the euro fell 0.23%, the pound fell 0.87%, the yen fell 1.49%, the Swiss franc fell 0.3%, the Korean won fell 1.2%, the Thai baht, peso, and rupee closed down, while the New Zealand dollar, rand, real, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar closed up. Gold prices fell 3.3% to $4113 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 16.37, the spot commodity index closed down, and Brent crude oil soared 9% to $66.5 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. The S&P 500 index rose 1.92%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.88%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 3.62%, and the Nikkei 225 index rose 3.61%. The US government shutdown has affected the economy and employment, and the release of economic data. The September CPI data was slightly lower than expected. The US manufacturing and service PMI rebounded in October, but manufacturing employment continued to decline. The eurozone's manufacturing and service PMI also rebounded. China's Q3 GDP growth slowed to 4.8%, and the domestic stock market continued to fluctuate [10][11][13] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rebounded, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield slightly dropped to 4%. Due to the government shutdown and lower - than - expected CPI, the US Treasury yield oscillated at a low level with limited downside. The 10 - year Chinese Treasury yield rebounded to 1.85%, the Sino - US interest rate spread inverted slightly decreased to 215bp, and the domestic bond market fell again [13][17][20] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.5% to 98.9, and most non - US currencies depreciated [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold fell 3.3% to $4113 per ounce, with short - term weakness but unchanged long - term bullish expectations. The VIX index dropped to 16.37. Brent crude oil soared 9% to $66.4 per barrel due to supply - side concerns, and the industrial products were weak, with the commodity spot index closing down [29][31][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US September CPI was lower than expected, which confirmed the expectation of two rate cuts by the Fed in 2025, boosting market risk appetite. The short - term possibility of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict is low, and the outcome of the Sino - US trade negotiation is expected to maintain the status quo [33][34][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: Sino - US trade negotiation, US President's visit to Japan; Tuesday: US August housing price index, October Conference Board consumer confidence; Wednesday: Bank of Canada interest rate meeting resolution; Thursday: Fed interest rate meeting resolution, Bank of Japan interest rate meeting resolution, European Central Bank interest rate meeting resolution, US Q3 GDP; Friday: China's October manufacturing PMI, Eurozone's October CPI [37]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Zhejiang Zhenai Meijia Co., Ltd., has disclosed its third-quarter financial report for 2025, ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the information provided [1][2]. Financial Data Summary - The third-quarter financial report has not been audited [3][6]. - The company does not require retrospective adjustments or restatements of previous accounting data [3]. - There are no non-recurring profit and loss items applicable for the reporting period [3]. Shareholder Information - The total number of common shareholders and the situation of the top ten shareholders have not been disclosed [5]. Board Meeting Details - The fourth board meeting was held on October 24, 2025, with all nine directors participating [6][7]. - The board approved the third-quarter report with unanimous consent [7]. Foreign Exchange Derivative Trading - The company aims to enhance its ability to manage foreign exchange risks through foreign exchange derivative trading [10]. - The trading amount is capped at $8 million, not exceeding 50% of the latest audited net assets [11][12]. - The company plans to use its own funds for these transactions, avoiding the use of raised funds [13]. Risk Management - The company emphasizes a conservative approach to foreign exchange derivative trading, focusing on risk avoidance rather than speculation [15]. - The company will engage only with qualified financial institutions for these transactions [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Stock Market**: A - shares and four stock index futures rose collectively this week, with small - and medium - cap stocks outperforming large - cap blue - chip stocks. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, market sentiment was boosted, but trading activity declined. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond Market**: Treasury futures weakened this week. Although the fundamentals and capital situation may push the bond market to strengthen, uncertainties will continue to disrupt market sentiment. It is expected that Treasury futures will fluctuate widely in the short term, and interval operations are recommended [6]. - **Commodity Market**: Geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices, and gold fluctuations decrease. The short - term commodity index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to mainly observe [6]. - **Foreign Exchange Market**: The US dollar may be under pressure in the medium term. The yen is under pressure, and short - term dollar strength may suppress the euro and yen. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Recommendations - **Stock**: The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 3.24%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures rose 3.35%. A - shares and four stock index futures rose, with market sentiment boosted after the Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. - **Bond**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.21%, and the main 10 - year Treasury futures fell 0.27%. Due to policy and market uncertainties, it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and interval operations are recommended [6]. - **Commodity**: The Wind Commodity Index fell 4.93%, and the CSI Commodity Futures Price Index fell 0.29%. Geopolitical conflicts drive up oil prices, and gold fluctuations decrease. It is recommended to mainly observe [6]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar fell 0.42%. The US dollar may be under pressure in the medium term, and the yen is under pressure. It is recommended to observe cautiously [6]. Important News and Events - **China - US Relations**: The two sides are about to return to the negotiation table, and Trump plans to visit China next year. China advocates resolving issues through negotiation [14][16]. - **Domestic Policy**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee emphasized "sustained efforts in pro - growth policies" [6]. - **International Affairs**: The EU invited China to discuss rare earths, and European leaders supported the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire through negotiation. The Trump administration froze $11 billion in infrastructure funds [14][16]. This Week's Domestic and Foreign Economic Data - **China**: The Q3 GDP annual rate was 4.8%, the September social consumer goods retail sales increased 3% year - on - year, and the September industrial added value increased 6.5% year - on - year [11][17]. - **US**: The September existing home sales totaled 4.06 million annualized [17]. - **EU**: The preliminary October consumer confidence index was - 14.2 [17]. - **UK**: The September CPI monthly rate was 0, and the September retail price index monthly rate was - 0.4% [17]. - **Germany**: The September PPI monthly rate was - 0.1% [17]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - **October 27**: China's January - September industrial enterprise profit annual rate, US September durable goods orders monthly rate [81]. - **October 28**: Germany's November Gfk consumer confidence index, US August S&P/CS20 city house price index annual rate [81]. - **October 30**: US Fed interest rate decision, eurozone Q3 GDP annual rate, US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate, etc. [81]. - **October 31**: Japan's September unemployment rate, China's October official manufacturing PMI, etc. [81].

Core Insights - The development of inclusive finance in China is accelerating, providing significant support for high-quality economic growth, but there are still shortcomings in the actual use of financial tools among small and micro enterprises and individual businesses [3][4] Group 1: Current State of Inclusive Finance - The average foreign exchange hedging rate for national foreign trade enterprises has reached 27%, while Yiwu, known for its high degree of outward orientation and nearly 100 billion USD in annual foreign trade, has a hedging rate of only 3% [3][4] - 99% of foreign trade entities in Yiwu are individual businesses and small enterprises, with 90% primarily focused on exports, leading to a low sensitivity to exchange rate risks [4] Group 2: Recommendations for Deepening Inclusive Finance - Expand the breadth and depth of inclusive financial services to achieve a combination of wide coverage and precision, focusing on specific fields, groups, regions, and financial services [4][5] - Promote coordination between supply and demand sides in inclusive finance, enhancing the variety of foreign exchange risk management products and addressing the challenges faced by small enterprises in understanding and utilizing financial tools [5][6] - Accelerate the integration of inclusive finance with digital and green finance, providing tailored comprehensive solutions to small enterprises to reduce costs and ensure equitable access to financial resources [6] - Continuously improve the inclusive finance ecosystem by balancing commercial and social aspects, utilizing financial services, government resources, technological innovation, and social forces to create a sustainable and effective support system for small enterprises [6]