日度报告——综合晨报 A 股取得开门红，美国 ISM 制造业指数创一年 最低点 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-01-06 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股 2026 年取得开门红 A 股取得开门红，市场情绪较高，对海外地缘事件的负面影响定 价偏弱。从开年行情看，预计科技股依然是近期行情主线。后 续在无更多利空情况下，市场有望继续走强。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国 ISM 制造业指数创一年最低点 综 美国最新的 ISM 制造业 PMI 不及预期，实体经济进一步走弱， 美元短期回落。 合 宏观策略（黄金） 晨 美国可能会为重建委内瑞拉石油基础设施补贴 报 受到委内瑞拉局势引发的避险情绪影响，贵金属大幅上涨，但 由于美国没有陷入持久战的风险，对贵金属的提振有限， Bloomberg 商品指数调整权重的操作将带来抛压。 农产品（棉花） Icra:印度棉花产量将下降，引发围绕农村就业的担忧 当前资金面主导市场波动，考虑到棉纱即期生产利润持续恶化、 价格在布厂及其下游传导不畅、内外价差较大可能导致进口纱 的大量流入等，需警惕资金退场带来的回落风险。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 越南对华冷轧碳钢板 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 美国 GDP 超预期，美元维持走弱 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好维持高位，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数下 行，美债收益率降至 4.13%。美元指数跌 0.41%至 98，非美货币 多 数 升 值 ， 离 岸 人 民 币 涨 0.42% ， 欧 元 涨 0.53% ， 英 镑 涨 0.87%，日元涨 0.75%，瑞郎涨 0.77%，韩元涨超 2%，新西兰 元、澳元、泰铢涨超 1%，兰特、林吉特、比索、加元等收涨， 雷亚尔和卢比贬值。金价涨 4.5%至 4533 美元/盎司，VIX 指数 降至 13.6，现货商品指数收涨，布油涨 0.47%至 60.33 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 海外市场圣诞假期休市前后，市场交易较为清淡。美国三季度 GDP 数据公布，年化季环比初值 4.3%，远高于市场预期的 3.3%，前值为 3.8%，前三季度美国 GDP 增速均值达到 2.5%， 基本持平去年，消费增速 3.5%仍然存在韧性，消费、固定投 资、库存、净出口、和政府支出分别拉动 GDP 增长 2.39%、 0.19%、-0. ...

日度报告——综合晨报 议召开 美国首申人数超预期，中国中央经济工作会 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-12 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国上周首申人数增 4.4 万人，创 2020 年来最大增幅 美国首申数据明显超预期，劳动力市场走弱，美元指数继续下 行。 宏观策略（股指期货） 世行上调 2025 年中国经济增长预测 综 A 股市场震荡下挫，以地产、零售等题材领跌。从中央经济工作 会议看，政策基调稳健，增量政策或偏少，对应明年盈利修复 的弹性也不宜高估。那么股市面临一定的挑战。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 经济工作会议：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具 报 经济工作会议货币政策的表述超市场预期，债市也出现了快速 走强。不过按照此前经验，利多落地后，债市进一步上涨的空 间应较为有限，其后将逐渐转入偏强震荡的行情中。 农产品（棉花） 新疆：棉企籽棉零星收购 现货点价销售积极 郑棉 12 月 11 日再度拉涨，盘面近期表现坚挺，主要原因是现货 基差高企&产业大户接货的意愿较强，同时下游刚需用棉量较 大。 黑色金属（铁矿石） 预计 2026 年全国新建商品房销售面积同比降 6.2% 铁 ...

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 美国经济数据走弱，美元转向下行 市场风险偏好维持高位，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数上 行，美债收益率升至 4.14%。美元指数跌 0.47%至 99，非美货币 多数升值，离岸人民币微涨 0.02%，欧元涨 0.38%，英镑涨 0.7%，日元涨 0.54%，瑞郎跌 0.1%，加元、澳元、兰特涨超 1%，新西兰元、比索、泰铢、林吉特收涨，雷亚尔跌超 2%。 金价跌 1%至 4198 美元/盎司，VIX 指数降至 15.4，现货商品指 数收涨，布油涨 0.4%至 64.6 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 美联储进入利率会议前的静默期，市场对 12 月降息 25bp 已经有 充分定价。美国经济数据喜忧参半，但经济下行趋势未改，11 月美国 ISM 制造业 PMI 录得 48.2，不及市场预期的 49，连续 9 个月处于收缩区间，非制造业 PMI 从 52.4 微升至 52.6，预期 52.1，制造业和非制造业 PMI 的就业分项较上月回升，但仍然 处于 50 荣枯线下方，制造业新订单有所回升，物价分项处于高 位，关税对价格和需求的影响已经开始体现，美联储褐 ...

近期人民币在交易市场的强势表现，正清晰勾勒出升值加速的轮廓。从历史规律来看，历经较长下行周期后，人民币汇率转向往往遵循 "磨底 - 蓄势 - 温 和升值 - 加速升值" 的路径，而当前正处于这一周期的关键进阶阶段，多重核心逻辑共同支撑着这一趋势。 汇率走势已释放明确信号。5 月中美关税降级成为重要转折点，人民币随即开启蓄势进程：前期兑一篮子货币调整、兑美元稳中有升，7 月后全面进入升 值通道，截至目前兑一篮子货币升值 2.8%，兑日元更是大幅升值 9.4%。值得关注的是，即便近期美元指数从 96.6 反弹至 100.2，人民币依然保持稳健， 且离岸汇率表现更强，与中间价价差持续收窄 —— 这一历史上预示升值加速的关键信号，正在当下持续兑现。 美元走势受限为人民币升值提供了外部空间。此前市场对美联储的激进降息预期已显著下修，未来美元指数反弹动能不足。而明年初美联储主席人选即将 尘埃落定，热门候选人的宽松政策倾向，可能重新点燃市场降息憧憬，进而压制美元走强。内外对比之下，人民币的相对吸引力持续提升。 内部支撑因素同样扎实。从估值看，2022 年 4 月至今年 6 月，人民币实际有效汇率累计回调 19%，名义有效汇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Gold prices are expected to continue oscillating, with increased volatility. It is recommended to pay attention to the fluctuations [13]. - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in each stock index [16]. - Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index): The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [20]. - US Stock Index Futures: Adopt a generally bullish approach, but note that the technology sector has not fully reversed its decline. Observe whether the 50 - day moving average can form strong support [25]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market may shift from oscillation to a bearish trend. It is recommended to focus on short - term rebound short - selling strategies [30]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil): The market is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound; otherwise, it will likely remain weak [31]. - Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal): The futures price is expected to remain oscillating. Continue to monitor China's actual purchase of US soybeans and the weather in South American production areas [32]. - Agricultural Products (Corn Starch): Starch is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term, following the trend of corn. For price spreads, it is recommended to operate within a range [34]. - Agricultural Products (Corn): The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating. It is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts and not to short [38]. - Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil): Adopt an oscillating perspective and be cautious about the upward space [43]. - Agricultural Products (Pigs): Investors with existing short positions can continue to hold them and adjust stop - loss and take - profit points. For those not yet in the market, wait for a rebound to enter short positions. Long - term investors can focus on far - month contracts after significant corrections [46]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead): For single - side trading, look for opportunities to stop losses at low prices; for arbitrage and cross - market trading, it is recommended to wait and see [48]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc): For single - side trading, wait and see; for calendar spread arbitrage, hold long positions; for cross - market arbitrage, continue to wait and see [50]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon): The futures main contract is expected to oscillate between 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [53]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon): The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [55]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper): For single - side trading, it is recommended to buy on dips; for arbitrage, continue to pay attention [59]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel): Existing short - position holders can gradually stop losses and take profits, or lightly consider going long on dips. Mid - term evaluation of resource contraction in Indonesia is required [61]. - Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate): Do not chase long positions. If production resumes and demand declines in the off - season, consider lightly shorting on the right side. For the long - term, adopt a strategy of buying on dips [63]. - Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil): Oil prices are expected to oscillate with a bearish bias in the short term [66]. - Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions): It is recommended to wait and see [68]. - Energy Chemicals (LLDPE): The futures price of PE is expected to oscillate and decline under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease [70]. 2. Core Views - The US economic data in September, including retail sales and employment, showed weakness, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December. The market risk appetite has recovered, and the US dollar index is expected to decline [19]. - The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations, trading volume remained low, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [2][15]. - The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply pressure of oils and fats is large, and the market is expected to be weak; the supply - demand situation of soybean meal is stable, and the price is expected to oscillate; the price of corn and corn starch is expected to be relatively strong [31][32][38]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, the demand for lithium carbonate needs verification, and different trading strategies are recommended for the short - term and long - term; the price of copper is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [5][59]. - In the energy chemicals market, the decline in oil prices is due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the short - term trend is bearish; the short - term trend of LLDPE is expected to decline under the influence of supply and demand [66][70]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Ukraine agreed to the terms of the peace agreement, and Fed Governor Milan called for significant rate cuts. The US budget deficit in October reached $284 billion [11][12][13]. - Comment: Gold prices oscillated and closed higher. The progress of the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the dovish speech of the Fed governor affected the market. In the short term, gold prices are expected to continue oscillating [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: China's foreign investment in the first 10 months increased by 6.2%, and the Sino - US leaders' call was initiated by the US [14][15]. - Comment: The A - share market opened higher and rebounded, but trading volume remained low due to uncertainties in Sino - Japanese relations. It is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: Kevin Hassett is considered the leading candidate for the next Fed chair. The US labor market weakened, and retail sales in September increased slightly [17][18][19]. - Comment: The latest US retail data was lower than expected, and the labor market was weak. A rate cut in December is almost certain, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Kevin Hassett is the leading candidate for the Fed chair. US retail sales in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, and PPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month [21][22][23]. - Comment: PPI was basically in line with expectations, and core PPI growth was slightly lower than expected. Consumption momentum continued to slow down, and the expectation of a rate cut increased. Overall, a bullish approach is recommended, but pay attention to the technology sector [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The State Council will hold a policy briefing, the central bank conducted 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations and 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations [26][27][28]. - Comment: The bond market sentiment has weakened. With the possible introduction of pro - consumption policies and the impact of the fund fee rate new regulations, it is recommended to look for short - term short - selling opportunities on rebounds [29]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 25 decreased by 16.43% month - on - month [31]. - Comment: The oil market sentiment was weak, and the supply pressure was large. It is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. Wait for production data to show a decline before expecting a rebound [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - News: The net export sales of US soybeans in the week ending October 9 were 785,000 tons [32]. - Comment: The supply - demand situation of soybean meal changed little. The market will focus on the weather in South American production areas, and the price is expected to remain oscillating [32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - News: The theoretical profits of corn starch enterprises in Heilongjiang, Jilin, Hebei, and Shandong on November 25 were 68 yuan/ton, 37 yuan/ton, 110 yuan/ton, and 11 yuan/ton respectively [33]. - Comment: The supply - demand pattern of starch improved, and enterprises remained profitable. Starch futures followed corn higher, and price spreads are expected to operate within a range [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - News: The domestic corn price showed mixed trends, with some regions rising and some falling [35][37]. - Comment: The spot price of corn remained strong, and the futures price continued to rise. The short - term price is expected to remain high and oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see for the near - term contracts [38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: The transaction volume of first - and second - hand houses in 30 key cities showed signs of stabilizing, and the inventory of the passenger vehicle industry at the end of October was 3.41 million [39][40]. - Comment: Steel prices oscillated and strengthened. The increase in steel prices was related to policy expectations and cost support, but the demand did not strongly support the price increase [41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - News: Huatong Co., Ltd. plans to control costs in the next three years [44]. - Comment: The current spot price of pigs is oscillating and falling, which weakens market confidence in peak - season demand. It is recommended to adopt different trading strategies according to the situation [45]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $28.49/ton [47]. - Comment: The LME lead price was in a downward trend, and the domestic lead price also declined. It is recommended to look for opportunities to stop losses on short positions [47]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: On November 24, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of $140.2/ton, and Kazakhstan's refined zinc production in October increased [49]. - Comment: The LME zinc price oscillated, and the domestic zinc inventory decreased. Different trading strategies are recommended for single - side trading and arbitrage [50]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - News: The cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity from January to October increased by 43.76% year - on - year, and the single - month installed capacity in October was 12.6 GW [51]. - Comment: The spot price of polysilicon is affected by policy and fundamentals. The price of leading manufacturers is expected to remain stable, and it is recommended to focus on range - trading opportunities [52]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - News: In October, the export volume of industrial silicon decreased by 36% month - on - month [54]. - Comment: The export of industrial silicon was lower than expected, and the balance sheet deteriorated. The price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: India's Adani copper smelter is facing a shortage of ore, and the 2026 long - term processing fee for Chinese copper smelters may be at a historical low [56][58]. - Comment: The copper price is supported by market risk appetite but is also affected by economic data and geopolitical situations. It is expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to buy on dips [59]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and the LME nickel inventory remained unchanged. The production of Indonesia's QMB MHP project is expected to decline [60]. - Comment: The market risk appetite was supported, and the decline in MHP production may improve the balance sheet. It is recommended to adjust short - positions and consider going long on dips [60]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Ganfeng Lithium's 800,000 - ton lithium iron phosphate project is expected to be put into production in 2026 [62]. - Comment: The demand for lithium carbonate needs verification. Do not chase long positions in the short term, and consider different strategies according to the situation [63]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - News: The production of Kazakhstan's largest oil field increased, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased [64][65]. - Comment: Oil prices declined due to the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan. The short - term trend is bearish, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting [65]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - News: The closing price of CEA on November 25 was 60.16 yuan/ton [67]. - Comment: The impact of the carry - over policy on CEA price may be more emotional than substantial. It is recommended to wait and see [67]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - News: China's apparent consumption of PE in October increased by 3.9% month - on - month [69]. - Comment: Under the influence of supply increase and demand decrease, the futures price of LLDPE is expected to oscillate and decline [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillating" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The release of the September non - farm payroll data in the US after the government ended the shutdown showed that the job market continued to cool but without significant deterioration. The data did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the stock market was significantly suppressed. The Fed's stance on a December rate cut is uncertain, and the market's expectation of liquidity tightening has changed, with the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [2][33] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined, most stocks fell, bond yields mostly decreased, and the US bond yield dropped to 4.06%. The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, non - US currencies depreciated, gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 23.4, and the spot commodity index declined, with Brent crude oil dropping 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel [1][5][9] 3.2 Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 3.2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly declined, with significant drops in US and A - shares. The September non - farm payroll report did not strengthen the Fed's rate - cut expectation, and the Fed's internal differences intensified. The stock market was suppressed, and it is expected that the stock market will continue to oscillate weakly [10][11][13] 3.2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping to 4.06%. The decline was driven by the inflow of funds from the falling stock market. However, the Fed's hawkish stance limited the downward space of long - term bond yields. The domestic bond market in China oscillated weakly [14][17][20] 3.2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.89% to 100.2, and all non - US currencies depreciated. The offshore RMB gained 0.08%, the euro fell 0.94%, the pound fell 0.55%, the yen fell 1.2%, and others also declined [23][24][26] 3.2.4 Commodity Market - Gold fell 0.5% to $4065 per ounce, and it is in an oscillating pattern with a risk of decline. Brent crude oil fell 2.2% to $62.33 per barrel, and the commodity spot index declined due to the weak supply - demand pattern of oil and the strong US dollar [27][29][32] 3.3 Hotspot Tracking - The September US non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, with the number of new jobs being 119,000, higher than the expected 50,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, and the wage growth rate remained high at 3.8% year - on - year [2][31][33] 3.4 Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: US November Dallas Fed Business Activity Index - Tuesday: US September retail sales, PPI, housing price index; US November Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index - Wednesday: US weekly initial jobless claims, September durable goods orders and new home sales; US November Chicago PMI - Thursday: Eurozone November economic sentiment index; Fed releases the Beige Book; ECB October interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: France and Germany October CPI [35]

期货研究报告|外汇专题报告 2025-11-19 结售汇降温，市场静待再定价 研究院 高聪 021-60828524 gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 联系人 朱思谋 0755-23887993 zhusimou@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03142856 研究员 蔡劭立 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 核心观点 10 月结售汇顺差明显回落，企业在即期与远期端的结汇、购汇及套保安排均较上月更 为平缓。涉外收付款经常项目顺差升至年内高位，货物贸易仍是主要贡献项，资本与 金融项目的净流出压力同步减轻。美元兑人民币在关键数据延后发布背景下维持再定 价走势，短期预计继续围绕 7.10 一线震荡。 ■ 数据核心看点 10 月结售汇顺差明显收窄。当月银行结售汇顺差从 510.23 亿美元下降至 176.79 亿 美元，代客顺差收窄至 214.26 亿美元，银行自身逆差扩大至 -37.48 亿美元，反映企 业与居民部门的结售汇行为与上月相比更为平稳。 企业在即期与远期端的结售汇和套保节奏均有所调整。即期成交量升至 428.96 亿美 元 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "Oscillating" [5] Core Viewpoints - Market risk appetite is fluctuating, with most global stock markets rebounding, most bond yields rising, and the US dollar index falling. The market is affected by factors such as the end of the US government shutdown, data uncertainties, and changes in tariff policies [1][11] - Liquidity crunch occurs repeatedly, leading to increased market volatility. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has changed, and asset prices are sensitive to liquidity changes [33][37] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market This Week Overview - Market risk appetite is wavering. Most stock markets rebound, most bond yields rise, the US dollar index drops 0.31% to 99.3, most non - US currencies appreciate, gold rebounds 2.1% to $4081 per ounce, the VIX index rises to 19.8, the spot commodity index closes higher, and Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $63.74 per barrel [1][5][9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rebound. The S&P 500 in the US rises 0.08%, while the Shanghai Composite Index in China falls 0.18%. The end of the US government shutdown, data uncertainties, and changes in tariff policies affect the market. In China, the weak economic data in October puts pressure on the stock market [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly rise, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield reaching 4.14%. The end of the US government shutdown and potential fiscal deficit increase pressure on long - term bonds. Developed countries' monetary policies are on hold, and the domestic bond market in China is volatile [14][19][22] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.31% to 99.3, and most non - US currencies appreciate. Offshore RMB rises 0.38%, the euro rises 0.47%, the British pound rises 0.08%, the Japanese yen drops 0.74%, the Swiss franc rises 1.39%, and some other currencies also show gains [25][27][28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold rebounds 2.1% to $4084 per ounce, affected by expectations of the Fed's policy shift. However, after the end of the US government shutdown and hawkish remarks from Fed officials, it gives back some gains. Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $63.74 per barrel, and the supply - demand pattern for oil remains weak [29][32] 3. Hotspot Tracking - Liquidity crunch occurs repeatedly, causing increased market volatility. The market experiences a significant turnaround from the beginning to the end of the week due to data uncertainties and hawkish signals from the Fed [33][37] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: Japan's Q3 GDP, US November New York Fed Manufacturing Index - Tuesday: US November NAHB Housing Market Index - Wednesday: UK and Eurozone October CPI - Thursday: US weekly initial jobless claims, November Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, US September non - farm payrolls - Friday: Japan's October CPI, US November University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final value [39]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government shutdown has led to a passive tightening of liquidity, increasing market volatility. Once the shutdown ends, market sentiment is expected to be boosted. The US economy has not yet entered a recession, but the employment market is showing a clear weakening trend, and the economic outlook is pessimistic. The current situation of liquidity tightening may present a good entry opportunity, as it is expected to be temporary. Once the government reopens and the liquidity tightens eases, market risk appetite will recover [2][10][32] Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite declined, most global stock markets fell, and most bond yields rose. The US Treasury yield slightly increased to 4.09%. The US dollar index dropped 0.2% to 99.6, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB slightly declined by 0.05%, while the euro rose 0.25%, the pound rose 0.07%, and the yen rose 0.37%. Gold prices fluctuated around $4000 per ounce, the VIX index rose to 19, and the spot commodity index declined. Brent crude oil dropped 2.2% to $63.78 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Most global stock markets fell. In developed markets, the S&P 500 dropped 1.63%, and the Eurozone stock markets mostly declined. In emerging markets, most stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.08% and the Hang Seng Index rising 1.29%, while the Nikkei 225 index dropped 4.07%. The US government shutdown has dragged down the economy and employment, and the tightening of financial market liquidity has increased market volatility. The US stock market's upward trend has slowed, and concerns about high valuations and potential AI industry bubbles have increased. The domestic stock market is fluctuating at a high level, and the divergence between stock market performance and fundamentals persists [9][10][12] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields showed mixed performance. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose to 4.09%. The US government's continued shutdown, tightened financial market liquidity, and better - than - expected ADP employment data in October have reduced market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December. The Bank of England kept its policy unchanged, and the yields of major global government bonds tend to rise. The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield rebounded to 1.808%, and the domestic bond market continued to fluctuate [13][16][19] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index dropped 0.2% to 99.6, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. The offshore RMB slightly declined by 0.05%, the euro rose 0.25%, the pound rose 0.07%, the yen rose 0.37%, the Swiss franc dropped 0.07%, the South Korean won dropped 2.2%, the New Zealand dollar dropped 1.8%, and the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and Indian rupee closed down, while the peso, real, and ringgit closed up [22][23][25] 2.4 Commodity Market - Spot gold oscillated slightly lower, closing at $4001 per ounce. The international gold price is fluctuating around $4000, with some bottom - fishing signs in the market. However, the uncertainty of a Fed rate cut in December and the temporary liquidity tightening in the US financial market have increased market volatility, and gold lacks upward momentum in the short term. Brent crude oil dropped 2.2% to $63.78 per barrel, and the supply - demand pattern of oil prices remains weak, with the commodity spot index closing down [26][28] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The government shutdown has led to passive liquidity tightening. The balance in the US Treasury's TGA account has significantly increased, resulting in a passive tightening effect, raising overnight interest rates and the US dollar index. This has led to a weakening of market risk appetite, and most assets have declined. It is expected that the government will reopen soon, and once it does, market risk appetite will recover [29][31][32] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - Monday: Release of the Bank of Japan's meeting minutes - Tuesday: Release of the US October NFIB Small Business Confidence Index - Wednesday: US Treasury Secretary Besent will give a speech - Thursday: Release of the Bank of Canada's interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: Release of China's October social retail sales and industrial added value [34]