2025 年 6 月 23 日 晨会速递 总量研究 【宏观】如何解读 5 月份财政数据？——2025 年 5 月财政数据点评 5 月份财政收支同比增速均较上月回落，主要关注以下三点：其一，财政支出仍较为 强劲，兜底"三保"支出力度较强，但基建支出同比增速回落幅度较大，需关注地方 投资动能和意愿表现；其二，非税收入同比增速继续回落指向地方资金环境持续好转， 但税收收入同比增速依然不高，在加强征管之外仍需提振价格表现；其三，土地市场 改善并不持续，指向房地产市场向下"惯性"仍在，积极财政政策仍需择机推出。风 险提示：政策落地不及预期，重大项目开工不及预期。 【宏观】美联储在等待关税"冲击"——2025 年 6 月 FOMC 会议点评 美联储在 6 月会议如期按兵不动、将继续观察，点阵图也并未调整 2025 年的利率预 测。观察 5 月以来的数据，关税对消费的冲击已经逐步显现，对就业造成了结构性的 影响，但对通胀的影响尚未体现出来。我们理解，美联储依然在等待关税对通胀的"一 次性冲击"，并权衡其对于经济和就业的冲击，才会决策是否要推动降息。 【策略】被动型资金和个人资金仍是资金面的主要变量——资金面系列报告之四 公 ...

Group 1 - The "Su Super" football league has gained immense popularity, attracting financial giants like Jiangsu Bank and Zijin Insurance to invest in sports marketing [3] - China Ping An announced comprehensive insurance plans for "Su Super" athletes and fans, indicating a growing interest from financial institutions in the sports industry [3] - The surge in the league's popularity has sparked a competitive environment among financial firms seeking to capitalize on the emerging sports market [3] Group 2 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced the "1+6" policy measures to deepen reforms in the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to attract more long-term capital for tech investments [4] - The policy includes the reintroduction of a listing standard for unprofitable companies, signaling a shift in regulatory support for innovative firms [4] - Experts are analyzing the potential impacts of the new policy on the participation of long-term funds in technology enterprises [4] Group 3 - The LABUBU brand under Pop Mart has seen a rise in counterfeit products, with some vendors using anti-counterfeiting labels to market fake items [5] - Regulatory bodies are increasing inspections to combat the counterfeit market, but sales have shifted online, complicating enforcement efforts [5] - Legal experts warn that counterfeit products infringe on copyright and trademark rights, potentially leading to criminal penalties for severe cases [5] Group 4 - WM Motor is reportedly in the process of asset transfer to Baoneng Automobile, with indications of a takeover following WM's bankruptcy restructuring [6] - Baoneng is coordinating with WM to transfer production qualifications and assets, highlighting a consolidation trend in the automotive industry [6] - Shenzhen Xiangfei, the successful bidder for WM's restructuring, is linked to Baoneng, suggesting strategic connections between the two companies [6] Group 5 - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that only three out of 70 cities saw an increase in second-hand housing prices, indicating a continued decline in the real estate market [7] - First-tier cities experienced a 0.7% decrease in second-hand housing prices, with significant drops in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai [7] - Analysts predict that the marginal effects of previous policies are diminishing, and further measures may be needed to stabilize market confidence [7] Group 6 - ST Yigou sold four underperforming Carrefour subsidiaries for 1 yuan each to reduce debt, with the transaction expected to increase net profit by approximately 572 million yuan [8] - The acquisition of Carrefour China by Suning in 2019 has resulted in significant operational challenges, leading to store closures and financial losses [8] - The ongoing liquidity crisis at Suning has exacerbated the difficulties faced by Carrefour China, resulting in legal disputes over unpaid acquisition costs [8] Group 7 - Baba Foods plans to open 1,000 new stores this year despite facing high closure rates and declining revenue [9] - The company has maintained a consistent opening rate of over 1,000 stores annually for the past three years, although closures have also increased significantly [10] - Baba Foods is actively pursuing investment and acquisition opportunities to enhance its market share [9] Group 8 - Romoss power banks are facing quality controversies following reports of explosions, leading to product recalls and heightened scrutiny from regulatory authorities [11] - A consumer reported a severe incident involving a Romoss power bank that caused property damage, raising concerns about product safety [11] - The Shenzhen Market Supervision Bureau confirmed product defects in Romoss power banks and initiated a recall process [11] Group 9 - Instant retail platforms are disrupting the 618 shopping festival with substantial subsidies, leading to price reductions for well-known liquor brands [12] - The entry of instant retail has provided offline retailers with opportunities to clear inventory, resulting in increased sales during the promotional period [12] - However, the established pricing structure for liquor brands is facing unprecedented challenges due to the aggressive pricing strategies of instant retail [12]

华商韬略 . 聚焦标杆与热点、解构趋势与韬略 屡战屡败的黄光裕，仍不愿下牌桌。 作 者 丨达斯 以下文章来源于华商韬略 ，作者华商韬略 华商韬略出品 丨 ID：hstl8888 4月29日，国美车市北京西坝河店正式开业。 在国美创办后的第38年，黄光裕再次把未来押在了北京——这座他熟悉的城市上。 此时距他出狱重新掌舵国美并放话"18个月复兴国美"，已经过去了将近四年。 四年间，黄光裕带着国美好似回到世纪初那样南征北战，但计划中的"复兴"未能完成，却累计净亏损高 达388亿。 然而，这位曾以枭雄闻名的商界老兵，仍然不愿意就此认输。 01 翻盘失败 "我做事的习惯，方向一旦明确，大概都想好，应该有三分把握，我就敢去做。" 这句话完美地诠释了黄光裕的做事风格：雷厉风行，一手梭哈。 这一条信念，帮助黄光裕从捡破烂的潮汕穷小子，一路进化成了让董明珠都敬畏3分的"商界狠人"。 但也是同样一句话，让黄光裕在那个蛮荒年代铤而走险，最终造成了自己的牢狱之灾。 2008年11月，再次登顶中国首富4个月后，黄光裕以非法经营、内幕交易和行贿三项罪名，被判处有期 徒刑14年，同时被判罚金6亿元，没收财产2亿元。 身陷囹圄的这段时间内， ...

2025 年 6 月 22 日 行业研究 大促平稳收官，即时零售热度抬升 ——2025 年"618"数据点评 要点 综合电商平台销售额同增 15.2%，即时零售销售额同增 18.7% 2025 年"618"大促活动临近尾声，据第三方平台星图数据显示，各平台大促 期间（2025 年 5 月 13 日-6 月 18 日），综合电商平台累计销售额为 8556 亿元， 同比去年大促（2024 年 5 月 20 日-6 月 18 日）期间销售额增长 15.2%。 居民消费需求增速未达预期，地产后周期影响部分子行业收入增速，渠道变革大 势对现有商业模式冲击高于预期。 同时，2025年"618"大促期间即时零售总计销售额达296亿元，同比增长18.7%； 社区团购销售额为 126 亿元，同比下降 9.1%。 从品类角度看，在 2025 年"618"大促期间综合电商平台热门品类中，家用电 器、美容护肤、洗护清洁销售额占比分别为 12.9%/5.0%/2.7%。 阿里巴巴：品牌表现良好，用户粘性持续提升 商品方面，2025 年"618"大促期间，453 个品牌在天猫"618"成交破亿元（截 至 6 月 18 日 24 点），同 ...

Group 1: JD Group's Business Model and Strategy - JD Group aims to create a business model distinct from Meituan, focusing on high-quality and safe food for consumers [1][9] - The emphasis is on leveraging the fresh supply chain behind food delivery to generate profits, rather than relying solely on meal orders [9] - The core challenge lies in balancing cost efficiency through technology with the need to enhance rider welfare, testing the company's commitment to social responsibility and commercial efficiency [1] Group 2: Competition Landscape - Future competition will focus on JD's ability to implement a "30-minute delivery" capability for fresh supply chains in the restaurant delivery sector [1] - Meituan faces the challenge of balancing merchant ecosystem health with profitability pressures while countering JD's combination of quality and low prices [1] Group 3: Performance Metrics - JD's "618" sales event saw a user count increase of over 100% year-on-year, with total orders exceeding 2.2 billion [5] - The performance in categories like 3C and home appliances remains strong, with significant growth in high-margin categories such as fashion and beauty [5] Group 4: Technological Innovations - JD's focus on supply chain efficiency aims to redefine the delivery ecosystem in the competitive instant retail market [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant shift in consumer behavior during the "6·18" shopping festival, moving from a focus on price to a preference for value selection [1][2] - The simplification of promotional rules has made shopping experiences more straightforward, with consumers appreciating direct discounts rather than complex discount structures [1][2] - Nearly 40% of surveyed consumers reported an increase in spending compared to last year's "6·18," attributing this to clearer shopping rules that facilitate quicker decision-making [2] Group 2 - Instant retail is reshaping consumer habits, with platforms like JD and Meituan integrating online and offline shopping experiences, appealing particularly to younger consumers [3] - The instant retail market in China is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan by 2030, indicating a strong growth trajectory for this sector [3] - In the first quarter, the retail sales through public networks in Nanjing saw a year-on-year increase of 46.4%, highlighting the growing importance of online retail [3] Group 3 - The "6·18" sales event has extended into physical retail spaces, with new store openings and promotional activities becoming key highlights of the festival [4] - Companies like Suning and JD are launching new store formats and experiences to attract consumers, focusing on interactive and community-driven shopping environments [4][5] - Suning's new store concept emphasizes experiential shopping, offering various activities to enhance customer engagement and satisfaction [4][5] Group 4 - Suning and JD are leveraging their resources to provide significant discounts on popular products, enhancing the appeal of their offerings during the "6·18" event [5] - JD's flagship store in Jiangbei has doubled its operational area and reported a 180% increase in average daily foot traffic compared to its previous setup [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the significant role of e-commerce in boosting consumption and the innovative strategies adopted during the "618" shopping festival to stimulate consumer demand [1][2][3] - E-commerce platforms are witnessing a shift in consumer demand from purchasing single products to seeking systematic and scenario-based solutions, suggesting a need for enhanced AI recommendations [2][3] - The "618" shopping festival serves as a critical indicator of consumer resilience and innovation in China, with a notable increase in online retail sales, which reached 60,402 billion yuan from January to May, marking an 8.5% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2 - The article suggests that e-commerce platforms should enhance consumer experience by focusing on product quality and innovation to meet the rising expectations of consumers [1][3] - The entry of instant retail platforms like Meituan Shanguo during "618" has transformed the landscape, with nearly one million active local merchants and a doubling of transaction volume in 1,574 local business districts across 164 cities [2][3] - E-commerce platforms are encouraged to expand into lower-tier markets and invest in cross-border e-commerce to tap into new consumer potential and diversify product offerings [3]

不过，在CEO任上未满一年，韩鎏便交出管理棒。2025年2月，饿了么董事长、原CTO吴泽明以全员信 形式宣布组织调整，吴泽明兼任饿了么CEO一职，韩鎏继续担任物流负责人，分管即时物流中心，并继 续向吴泽明汇报。 韩鎏主抓即时物流，与其在物流和供应链管理方面的经验和能力相关。他最近一次公开亮相是在今年5 月15日举行的饿了么蜂鸟即配物流生态商大会上。彼时，他公布了蜂鸟在物流网络、蓝骑士生态、AI 落地应用等方面的一系列进展和规划。 韩鎏所负责的物流业务，是饿了么"1+2"战略中"2"的关键部分，即面向市场价值延展的即时物流网络。 最关键的是，这一业务除了配合饿了么在即时零售赛道的发展，步入6月，它还是阿里即时零售业务 ——淘宝闪购的运力支撑。 经济观察报 记者 钱玉娟 6月20日，经济观察报记者向饿了么官方求证获悉，饿了么物流负责人韩鎏已被警方传唤。 饿了么方面回应，经内部调查发现物流主管韩鎏涉嫌职务犯罪，并向公安机关主动报案。近日，警方已 传唤相关人员配合调查。饿了么秉持诚信廉洁文化，对触碰红线行为绝不姑息，坚决依法依规处理。 公开信息显示，韩鎏出生于1988年，自2019年加入阿里巴巴，先后担任饿了么资深副 ...

补贴结束后，即时零售到底能被多少消费者接受？ 文 丨 管艺雯 沈方伟 上一次互联网大公司集体加入一个战场，还是 5 年前的社区团购。当时很多行业人士认为，社区团购 之战将成为中国互联网有史以来最惨烈的战争之一。 今天，最激烈的战场换了。 刘强东在本周的小范围分享会称，京东大举进入外卖，目的是背后的生鲜供应链。其本质上就是即时 零售生意，京东外卖一度冲到 2500 万日订单。刺激之下，淘宝闪购（包括外卖在内）也加大投入， 逼近 4000 万日单。据我们了解，美团五月以来餐饮外卖的日均单量保持在 8000 万单以上，美团闪购 则在 1300 万单左右。 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 黄俊杰 《晚点 LatePost》独家获悉，多多买菜正在上海等一线城市试验自建商品仓库，最快将于 8 月上线即 时配送服务，以类似京东秒送、淘宝闪购的速度送商品上门。 不同于京东、淘宝的大举投入，多多买菜的尝试还在早期阶段，并且也不会涉足餐饮外卖。 拼多多表示，这不能代表公司战略和方向，称其无意加入即时零售大战。不过，多多买菜的确一直都 在优化送货上门时效。 据我们了解，多多买菜的初期尝试考虑综合借鉴美团自营零售（小象超市）和平台零售（ ...

许冉表示，目前可以看到的数据是PLUS会员的外卖复购率是非会员的两倍。 第一财经记者了解，会上股东对外卖业务进展、国补以及公司股票的长期价值等问题进行了提问。 会上，对于股东提及的"外卖业务最新进展和运营目标，如何评估今年的投入以及未来的利润趋势"问题，许冉回应称，京东做外卖是公司即时零售战略一个 非常自然地延伸，京东零售把即时零售作为公司核心战略已有几年时间，食品外卖在即时零售中属于一个大的品类，对京东而言发展外卖业务是一个自然而 然的结果。 截至6月1日，京东外卖的日订单量已经突破2500万单，外卖业务的上线对京东APP的流量以及新用户的增长有非常明显的拉动作用。 她表示，刚刚过去的618，京东APP的DAU创历史新高，初步看到外卖用户和核心用户之间以及跨品类的购买有很强的协同效应。在提升用户黏性方面，许 冉表示外卖业务也带动了PLUS会员的增长，目前可以看到的数据是PLUS会员的外卖复购率是非会员的两倍。 业务数据上，许冉表示目前入驻的品质餐饮门店超过150万家，全职骑手规模已经突破12万人，预计在二季度末全职骑手将超过15万人。整体看，外卖业务 发展超出预期，京东希望将其作为一个长期可持续发展的业务， ...