Core Viewpoint - The former mayor of Chongqing and economist Huang Qifan predicts that the RMB will gradually appreciate against the USD over the next decade, potentially reaching around 6 from its current level above 7, driven by the natural results of China's high-quality economic development [1]. Group 1: Economic Transition - China's manufacturing is shifting from "quantity" to "quality," with industrial added value accounting for 32% of the global total, establishing a competitive advantage in sectors like automotive, shipbuilding, high-speed rail, and renewable energy [3]. - The structure of exports has changed significantly, with 60% now being high-end equipment and electronic products, indicating a move away from low-cost competition towards value-added products [3]. Group 2: Supply Chain Independence - China has achieved significant autonomy in its industrial supply chain, with over 80% of export products having more than 80% domestic added value, reducing reliance on processing trade [5]. - This shift means that China is no longer just a processing hub but is exporting with its own technology and brands, necessitating stronger domestic currency support [5]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Dynamics - Despite external pressures, China's actual foreign investment usage has doubled over the past decade, averaging about $120 billion annually, with a shift from quantity to quality in foreign investments [6]. - Foreign enterprises contribute significantly to China's exports, accounting for 30% of total exports and 50% of high-value-added product exports, which supports the demand for RMB [6]. Group 4: Implications of RMB Appreciation - For consumers, an appreciation of the RMB means cheaper imports, potentially lowering costs for education, luxury goods, and travel [8]. - For businesses, it will necessitate upgrades and discourage low-margin export strategies, promoting only those with technology and brand strength to thrive internationally [8]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Adjustments - Investors holding significant USD assets may face depreciation in value when converted back to RMB, while investments in high-quality Chinese assets could yield benefits from both economic fundamentals and currency appreciation [9]. - Huang Qifan emphasizes a gradual appreciation of the RMB, predicting that by 2035, China's per capita GDP in USD could rise from $13,000 to between $25,000 and $26,000, partly due to currency appreciation effects [9].

当特朗普政府对中国挥舞关税大棒，将税率拉高至145%时，市场曾预测人民币汇率将一蹶不振。 然而，2025年的现实却出乎所有人意料：人民币不仅未崩 溃，反而从7.42的低位逆势反弹，年内升值超2.5%，稳居7.10关口附近。 这背后并非简单的市场波动，而是全球资本用脚投票，对中国经济韧性的肯定。 中美利差收窄进一步助推了人民币走强。 2025年9月，美联储宣布降息25个基点，而中国货币政策保持稳健，使得中美利差从倒挂转为收窄。 跨境资本迅速 反应，北向资金单日净流入超百亿元，近一周成交额达1.45万亿元。 2025年4月，美国推出"对等关税"政策，试图通过高压手段迫使中国妥协。 但现实是，关税战成了一把双刃剑。 美国经济因高关税面临通胀压力加剧，而中 国出口企业通过调整市场结构，将贸易方向转向东南亚、欧洲和非洲，成功对冲了对美出口下滑的影响。 数据显示，2025年前8个月，中国进出口总值达29.57万亿元，同比增长3.5%，其中出口增长6.9%。 机电产品、新能源汽车等高端制造出口占比持续提升， 贸易结构优化为人民币提供了坚实支撑。 甚至在美国加税后，中国对非美地区的出口增速一度达到两位数，形成"东方不亮西方亮 ...

Core Insights - The successful implementation of the first international letter of credit business using the national shipping trade digital platform marks a significant breakthrough in the application of digital RMB in cross-border trade finance [1][2] Group 1: Digital RMB and Cross-Border Trade - The national shipping trade blockchain platform, developed by multiple government agencies, aims to support the digitalization of shipping trade by utilizing blockchain technology and integrating digital RMB as a payment method [1] - The full-process blockchain letter of credit refinancing allows commercial banks to issue electronic letters of credit directly on the blockchain, enhancing the security of RMB internationalization transactions [1] Group 2: Business Operations and Efficiency - The successful transaction by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) in Changzhou involved registering import letter of credit information and transmitting related instructions to the Shanghai branch via the platform [2] - The application of the shipping trade platform provides a new digital channel independent of the traditional SWIFT system, significantly improving the efficiency and security of cross-border business operations [2] Group 3: Strategic Development - ICBC Changzhou branch is committed to exploring the potential of the shipping trade platform and actively seeking new models for cross-border trade empowered by digital RMB as part of the bank's strategic transformation [2]

这些仓促的反应，暴露了受西方主流经济学教条束缚的分析框架的局限性。正如本文将要论证的，这些呼吁人民币加速升值的倡导者需三思而后行，因为这 可能对西方经济体产生严重反效果，引发进一步的社会不稳定。与其要求人民币快速升值，西方各类倡导者更应表现出一定的谦逊和感激，珍视中国人民银 行不贸然采取行动，保持人民币基本稳定的战略定力。 几十年来，西方经济体，尤其是美国，一直向中国施压要求其货币升值，将其视为解决贸易失衡的良方。这种基于新古典经济理论的倡议认为，人民币升值 将使中国出口商品在海外变得更昂贵，从而减少中国巨大的贸易顺差，并提升西方的竞争力。国际货币基金组织和美国财政部等机构也附和这一呼声，将人 民币低估框定为加剧全球失衡的扭曲行为。 【文/观察者网专栏作者 鲍韶山 (Warwick Powell) 】 近期众多西方机构评论员（如《金融时报》）纷纷表态，认为人民币价值被低估。国际货币基金组织（IMF）也加入施压行列，呼吁中国进行"再平衡"并让 人民币升值。 IMF年度报告提出三项措施，以推动人民币实际汇率升值并减少经常账户顺差。IMF官网截图 截至2025年12月14日，这种压力依然存在：IMF在2025年中国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is progressing uniquely through trade, with a focus on increasing trade share and RMB settlement proportion, supported by a current account surplus and foreign direct investment [1] Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - The RMB is expanding its international use, with the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) establishing partnerships with six foreign institutions, marking a significant milestone in its global service network [1] - The RMB's inclusion in the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket and the integration of China's stock and bond markets into major international indices have enhanced its global standing [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the scale of offshore RMB assets reached 10.42 trillion yuan, the highest in nearly 43 months [2] Group 2: Currency Swap Agreements - The frequency and scale of currency swap agreements are expected to increase, facilitating easier access to RMB for various countries, thereby enhancing its international currency status [3] - The total scale of bilateral currency swap agreements reached 4.5 trillion yuan by November 2025, the highest since December 2008 [2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The RMB internationalization is anticipated to accelerate over the next five years due to the restructuring of international trade, deepening financial openness, and rising strategic demands [4] - Capital account openness is viewed as a critical factor for advancing RMB internationalization, with expectations for significant growth in China's capital markets during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [5] - The dual drivers of trade and financial openness are expected to propel the RMB's internationalization into deeper and broader areas [5]

只差0.03，离岸人民币7.03逼近破7，这次真的要成了？我把话先说在前头，这文章要讲的就是这一条线的来回跌宕，时间点和动因我会把数字都拆开来念清 楚，别急着下结论，接下来的细节更好玩也更刺眼。 到了2025年12月19日，离岸人民币报7.03，距离"破7"只差不到0.03，大家的表情都开始不一样了，手机里各种推送密集提醒， 可是人民币对这六个货币合成看，整体还是有些贬值态势，这图景比单看美元更完整，普通民众因为留学和旅游，自然更关心人民币兑美元的那条线， 美国联邦政府债务已经破了38万亿美元，利息一年付得近万亿美元，特朗普有降息冲动，他希望借此压低债务的融资成本，另外美国当前的物价水平也给降 息找了口实， 2025年一开始，离岸人民币对美元大约是1美元兑7.33人民币，市场上的人都记得这个起点， 到了4月初，特朗普掀起一波新的全面关税攻势，汇率一度被推低到7.48的水平，很多人当时还在咬牙观望， 之后中美之间搞了六轮谈判，氛围慢慢缓和，第三季度美联储开始连续降息，人民币从低谷里往回抬，全年累计升值接近4%，场面一下子活了起来， 第二个推手出现在年末结汇这头，2025年里人民币不断升值，很多企业持有美元资产就 ...

人民币要变得更"值钱"了？ 这不是猜测，而是一位懂经济的前市长给出的清晰判断。 黄奇帆最近提出，今后十年，人民币对美元汇率可能会从现在的7.0左 右，逐步升值到6.0左右。 这意味着，同样数量的人民币，未来在国际上能换到更多的美元。 这不仅仅是数字游戏，它关乎我们每一个人的钱包。 出国留学、海淘购物、企业进口原材料，成本都可能因此降低。 但更重要的是，这股信心的底气从何 而来？ 黄奇帆将答案指向了中国经济最坚实的底盘——我们的制造业。 这不是凭空而来的预言，而是一系列深刻变革正在发生的自然结果。 过去十年，中国制造业经历了一场静悄悄但意义深远的蜕变。 最直观的表现是份额，中国的工业增加值已经占到全球总量的32%。 这形成了一个"三个三分 之一"的全球格局：中国制造约占三分之一，所有发达国家加起来占三分之一，其余发展中国家占三分之一。 在近现代工业史上，只有英国和美国曾长期维 持过全球工业三分之一比重的地位，中国是第三个。 这个份额的背后，是结构的根本性优化。 出口商品的面貌已经焕然一新。 如今，每十件中国出口的商品中，有六件是高端装备和电子产品，工业制成品在 总出口中的占比高达90%。 我们熟知的汽车、造船、 ...

美联储若被政治化，美元信用的一个重要支柱就会动摇，谁还敢无限制地以美元计价借贷并持有美国资产。 把三件事连在一起看，就不是三道孤立的新闻，而是一条链条，链条在受力，断裂的可能性在增加，这是全球金融再定价的开端。 美债曾是世界的避风港，但避风港也会漏水，赤字、债务和政治不确定性是漏水的裂缝，而市场在修补或者撤退。 去美元化是过程不是口号，国家层面的资产配置调整是实务，是在经济与政治双重维度下的必然选择。 那么，这些动作将带来什么后果？第一，美元融资成本将上升，美国财政的外部可持续性面临更大考验。 第二，全球资产再平衡，黄金、欧元、一篮子货币或替代资产的吸引力上升，资金流向会重构。 中国大幅减持美债，还是全球债市的一声惊雷？美国盟友疯狂出逃，特朗普更换美联储主席提议如同挑衅全球信任，这三件事到底在较劲什么，谁在收场。 中国的减持不是赌气而是策略，外储配置在调整与分散的逻辑下进行，中国自有盘算与风险管理的理由明显。 数据摆在那儿，持仓从高位向下，这是多年的慢动作，是在重塑外汇安全垫，而不是一夜之间的激进甩卖。 中国连续增持黄金，这一动作像给家里保险柜再上把锁，既反映国际金融预期，又是一种避险的信号，外行看起来像胆怯 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that international investors are increasingly turning to RMB financing, driven by fundamental market demand for RMB assets, marking a significant step in the internationalization of the currency [1][4]. - The issuance of offshore RMB bonds has seen notable activity, with Kazakhstan's Development Bank issuing 2 billion RMB bonds in September, and Indonesia's government issuing 6 billion RMB bonds in October, indicating a growing trend in Central and Southeast Asia [4][5]. - The total issuance of offshore RMB bonds this year has reached approximately 870 billion RMB, surpassing the record total for 2024 and achieving growth for eight consecutive years [5]. Group 2 - The stability of the RMB compared to the more volatile USD and EUR enhances its attractiveness for financing, as noted by rating agencies [5]. - Experts predict that RMB yields will not experience significant fluctuations in the short to medium term, supported by the People's Bank of China's moderately accommodative policies [7]. - Recent measures announced by the People's Bank of China aim to optimize the "Bond Connect" southbound mechanism and support domestic investors in expanding offshore bond market investment channels, further promoting RMB internationalization [7].

关注汇率的朋友们，最近肯定都在死盯一个关键数——7。没错，就是人民币兑美元的7元关口。咱说实 话，就当前这升值势头，人民币破7基本是跑不了的事儿，没什么悬念。 中美坐下来谈了6轮，再加上美联储从三季度开始不停降息，人民币跌到谷底后直接反弹，一路往上 冲，到现在为止，比年初已经升值了大概4%。这波反弹的劲儿，说实话比很多人预想的都足。 逼近7关口，升值停不下来 你发现没，人民币这波升值的劲头就没断过。 就拿12月22日最新的实时数据来说，人民币兑美元还在慢慢涨，虽然涨幅不大，只有0.0099%，当前汇 率到了0.1420，但架不住它稳啊，每天都在小步往前挪。 直接上官方数据：12月19日离岸市场上，1美元只能换7.03元人民币，距离破7就差0.03个点，折算下来 也就不到1%的涨幅。 这就跟跑步冲终点似的，红线就在眼前，最后一小步的事儿，随时都能冲过去。 咱先回头捋捋这一年人民币的走势，那真是过山车似的上蹿下跳。2025年初，1美元还能换7.33元人民 币；结果到了4月初，特朗普一搞关税战，人民币直接跌到7.48，创下近十几年的最低点。 当时不少人都慌了神，甚至有人担心人民币会一路跌到底。谁能想到，之后画风直接 ...