正如上图显示，随着英国央行步入降息周期，MPC委员们立场日益分歧，本次投票或将出现重大分歧。 智通财经APP获悉，利率期货市场以及经济学家们普遍预计，英国央行将在当地时间周四维持基准利率不变，这一注 定将存在激烈争论的潜在决定将终结此前英国央行连续按季度降息的走势。 市场和经济学家们预计，英国央行周四(北京时间周四晚间)将把基准利率保持在4%不变，从而放缓自2024年8月以来 每季度一次的渐进式降息步伐。英国央行将于伦敦时间中午12点公布这一最新的利率决定，半小时后英国央行行长安 德鲁·贝利(Andrew Bailey)将召开新闻发布会。 在通胀高企的担忧以及工党政府11月26日极为关键的秋季预算声明即将到来之际，英国央行货币政策委员会(MPC)预 计将采取较为谨慎的货币政策立场。然而，在最新数据显示英国物价压力出现缓解迹象且经济有所降温之后，贝利可 能会保留在圣诞节前采取降息行动的希望。他被视为这一出现剧烈分歧的MPC委员会中的关键摇摆票。 在央行与市场沟通方式的重大调整中，英国央行还将推出新版本的《货币政策报告》以及会议纪要，九名MPC委员 将首次分别阐述各自观点。 经济学家预计这将是一场胶着的决议，在机 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the economic situation in October 2025 and the fourth - quarter economic outlook under the support of macro - policies. It predicts various economic and financial data such as industrial added value, social retail sales, fixed - asset investment, trade, inflation, GDP, and social financing credit [11]. - Although the third - quarter economic growth slowed down, with the implementation of policies like 5000 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments and 5000 - billion - yuan local government debt balance quota, the economy is expected to achieve the annual growth target of about 5% [11][68]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Added Value - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in October will be 5.5%. In October, the economic prosperity declined, still in the contraction range. The production and new order indexes decreased, and the new export order was at the second - lowest level of the year. The price index showed a "hot - upstream, cold - downstream" pattern, and the economic operation had obvious structural differentiation [13]. - Looking forward, high - tech manufacturing and consumer - related manufacturing are expected to maintain resilience. However, considering the possible weakening of policy effects in the fourth quarter, combined with the weak real estate and insufficient export momentum, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value in the fourth quarter is expected to be 5.3% [1][20]. 2. Social Retail Sales - It is predicted that the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in October will be 3.0%. The real - estate post - cycle consumption and automobile sales in October may not provide strong support for social retail sales, but the service industry PMI is in the expansion range, and the consumer demand in industries such as transportation and entertainment is strong [26][28]. - In the fourth quarter, due to the weakening of the "trade - in" policy effect, slow income growth, and the high - base effect of the previous year, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales is expected to be about 3.1% [2][28]. 3. Fixed - Asset Investment - It is estimated that the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in October will be - 0.7%. Infrastructure investment may decline in October, real - estate investment may continue to bottom out, while manufacturing investment maintains resilience [33][34][36]. - In the fourth quarter, fixed - asset investment is expected to continue to operate at a low level. Although policies such as new policy - based financial instruments and local government debt balance quota are in place, factors like the end of policy tool investment and the possible continued bottoming of the real - estate market may lead to a cumulative year - on - year growth rate of about - 0.5% [37]. 4. Trade 4.1 Export - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of exports in October will be 3.0%. Although the US has imposed additional tariffs on some industries, overall external demand remains resilient. The global manufacturing PMI in October rose to 50.8%. The export volume to the US decreased, while that to ASEAN countries remained strong. The fourth - quarter export year - on - year growth rate is expected to be 2.5% [42][44][48]. 4.2 Import - It is predicted that the year - on - year growth rate of imports in October will be 3.0%. The import sub - item of the manufacturing PMI in October decreased, and the import is expected to decline compared with September. However, with the reduction of trade frictions and the release of domestic demand in the second half of the year, the annual import growth rate may turn slightly positive [50]. 5. Inflation - In terms of CPI, it is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of CPI in October will be flat. In October, the pork price continued to decline, while the agricultural product wholesale price increased significantly. The year - on - year growth rate of CPI in the fourth quarter is expected to be about 0.3% [55]. - Regarding PPI, it is estimated that the year - on - year growth rate of PPI in October will be - 2.2%. The price of upstream raw materials such as coal and steel fluctuated, while non - ferrous metals strengthened. The PPI in October is expected to show a trend of "month - on - month improvement and narrowing year - on - year decline", and the year - on - year growth rate of PPI in the fourth quarter is expected to be about - 2.3% [62]. 6. GDP - It is expected that the year - on - year growth rate of GDP in the fourth quarter will be 4.6%. In October, the manufacturing PMI showed a "weak supply and demand" pattern. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter may slow down marginally, but the annual growth target of about 5% can be achieved [68]. 7. Social Financing Credit 7.1 Credit - It is predicted that the new credit in October will be 3300 billion yuan. In October, the bill rate fluctuated downward, indicating weak real - economy financing demand. The new credit of various sectors is estimated as follows: enterprise short - term loans will increase by - 1500 billion yuan, enterprise long - term loans will increase by 1800 billion yuan, household short - term loans will increase by 100 billion yuan, household long - term loans will increase by 900 billion yuan, and bill financing will increase by 2000 billion yuan [74][86]. 7.2 Social Financing - It is expected that the new social financing in October will be 1.0 trillion yuan, and the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock is expected to be 8.6%. The net financing of government bonds is expected to be about 5500 billion yuan, the net financing of enterprise bonds is about 1900 billion yuan, and the non - standard financing is about - 1600 billion yuan. The M2 year - on - year growth rate in October is expected to fall to 8.0% [87][93].

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market rebounded on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones increasing by 225.86 points (0.48%) to 47,311.10, the Nasdaq rising by 0.65% to 23,499.80, and the S&P 500 gaining 0.37% to 6,796.29, driven by optimistic corporate earnings and better-than-expected economic data [2] - The ADP reported an addition of 42,000 jobs in the private sector for October, indicating a rebound, although signs of labor market weakness persist with ongoing layoffs in some industries [4] - The ISM services PMI for October reached 52.4, marking the fastest expansion in eight months, primarily due to a rapid recovery in new orders, despite companies facing the highest input costs in three years [4] Company Performance - Notable tech stocks showed varied performance: Tesla rose by 4%, Google by 2.4%, Meta by 1.3%, Amazon by 0.3%, while Nvidia fell by 1.7% [3] - Ford and General Motors, which are sensitive to tariff risks, saw their stock prices increase by over 2% following the Supreme Court's skepticism regarding the legality of tariffs imposed by former President Trump [5] - Caterpillar's stock also rose approximately 4%, reflecting positive market sentiment amid tariff uncertainty [5] Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 6.4 basis points to 4.16%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4.8 basis points to 3.63%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards interest rates [5] - International oil prices weakened, with WTI crude oil falling by 1.59% to $59.60 per barrel and Brent crude down by 1.43% to $63.52 per barrel [6] - Gold prices rebounded, with COMEX gold futures for November delivery rising by 0.83% to $3,980.30 per ounce, driven by increased risk aversion [6]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant contribution of Ghana's gold industry to the national economy, with a GDP contribution of 881 billion Ghanaian cedis in 2024 and gold export revenues reaching a record 11.2 billion USD by August 2025 [1] - The mining sector is identified as a key driver of Ghana's economy, playing a crucial role in job creation, income generation, and attracting investment [1] - The investment of over 1 billion USD in the Ahafo North mine demonstrates Ghana's capability to attract major global investors, which is expected to enhance national revenue and stimulate local development through job creation and community projects [1] Group 2 - In 2024, Ghana's total GDP is projected to be 11,762.2 billion cedis, with the gold industry accounting for approximately 7.5% of this total [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows a strengthening trend in the auto market retail at the end of the month, while production is restricted by environmental protection measures. The inflation situation features a bottom - oscillating pork price and an oscillatingly strong oil price [1][2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Economic Growth: Strengthening Auto Market Retail at the End of the Month 1.1 Production: Environmental Protection Restricts开工 - **Production End: Slowing Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption** - On November 4, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 75.7 tons, a 1.4% decrease from October 28. On October 30, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 180.5 tons, a 2.9% decrease from October 22. Although the consumption has slowed down, industrial electricity consumption has increased due to the positive impact of Sino - US negotiations on the black - series products [5][12]. - **Production End: Local Sharp Decline in Blast Furnace Operating Rate** - On October 31, the national blast furnace operating rate was 81.7%, a 3.0 - percentage - point decrease from October 24, and the capacity utilization rate was 88.6%, a 1.3 - percentage - point decrease. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 68.3%, a 25.1 - percentage - point decrease from October 24. The start - up rate has dropped significantly due to the start of heavy - pollution weather warnings in many places [15]. - **Production End: Moderate Decline in Tire Operating Rate** - On October 30, the operating rate of all - steel tires for trucks was 65.3%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from October 23, and the operating rate of semi - steel tires for cars was 73.4%, a 0.3 - percentage - point increase. The operating rate of downstream looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions reached a new high for the year [17]. 1.2 Demand: Strengthening Auto Market Retail at the End of the Month - **Demand End: Improved Monthly - on - Monthly New Home Sales in 30 Cities** - From November 1 - 4, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 155,000 square meters, a 145.6% increase from October, but a 53.3% decrease from November last year. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities decreased year - on - year [22]. - **Demand End: Strengthening Auto Market Retail at the End of the Month** - In October, retail sales increased by 6% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 7% year - on - year. In the fifth week of October, retail and wholesale reached daily averages of 155,000 and 210,000 vehicles respectively, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month growth [26]. - **Demand End: Weak Steel Prices** - On November 4, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by - 1.2%, 0%, - 2.4%, and + 0.3% respectively compared to October 28. Since November, these varieties have shown different year - on - year and month - on - month changes. Steel inventories are seasonally decreasing [31]. - **Demand End: Oscillatingly Strong Cement Prices** - On November 4, the national cement price index increased by 0.1% compared to October 28, but prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased. The year - on - year decline in cement prices has widened [32]. - **Demand End: Narrow - Range Oscillation of Glass Prices** - On November 4, the active glass futures contract price was 1,103 yuan/ton, a 0.5% decrease from October 28. Since November, glass prices have shown a month - on - month and year - on - year decline [37]. - **Demand End: Strong Increase in Container Shipping Freight Index** - On October 31, the CCFI index increased by 2.9% and the SCFI index increased by 10.5% compared to October 24. Since October, both indices have shown different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [39]. 2. Inflation: Bottom - Oscillating Pork Price 2.1 CPI: Bottom - Oscillating Pork Price - **Pork Price Bottom - Oscillating** - On November 4, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, a 0.1% decrease from October 28. The supply has increased while the demand is weak, and the month - on - month decline has narrowed [45]. - **Slowing Growth Rate of Agricultural Product Price Index** - On November 4, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.9% compared to October 28. Different agricultural products showed different price changes. Since November, the index has shown year - on - year and month - on - month increases [51]. 2.2 PPI: Oscillatingly Strong Oil Price - **Oil Price Oscillatingly Strong** - On November 4, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 65.5 and 60.6 dollars/barrel respectively, increasing by 1.6% and 0.7% compared to October 28. OPEC's decision to suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year supports the oil price [54]. - **Decline in Copper and Aluminum Prices** - On November 4, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 2.9% and remained flat respectively compared to October 28. Since November, they have shown different year - on - year and month - on - month changes [58]. - **Most Industrial Product Prices Continue to Decline Month - on - Month** - Since November, industrial product prices have shown mixed changes. Most of the year - on - year declines have converged, but the year - on - year declines in cement and glass prices have widened [62].

Economic Outlook - The economic growth momentum has weakened since Q3 2025, with GDP growth expected to decline to approximately 4.8% in Q3 and 4.5% in Q4, although the annual growth target of around 5% is still achievable due to strong performance in the first half of the year [1][7] - The report indicates that the main reasons for the weakening domestic demand include the reduction in the effectiveness of the trade-in subsidy policy and a significant decline in restaurant consumption, which aligns with previous analyses [3][5] Consumer Spending - From January to August, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4.6% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [5] - The decline in retail sales growth is primarily attributed to the diminishing impact of the trade-in subsidy policy, with sales growth for home appliances and communication equipment dropping significantly [5] - Service consumption has outperformed goods consumption, contributing positively to overall consumption growth, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% compared to 4.8% for goods [5][3] Real Estate Market - The real estate market has accelerated its downturn since Q3, with pressures on both supply and demand sides becoming more pronounced [6] - Demand has decreased due to a continuous decline in residents' willingness to purchase homes, while supply is increasing with a residential inventory of 400 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.4% [6][8] Housing Supply Issues - The average housing supply interruption rate across the country has risen to 3.7%, up from 1.6% in 2022, with some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 5% [8] - This represents a 130% increase in mortgage interruption rates over three years, highlighting significant challenges in the housing market [8] Future Economic Predictions - The report provides forecasts for various economic indicators for Q3 and Q4 of 2025, suggesting a cautious outlook for the macroeconomic environment if no new stimulus policies are introduced [10][7]

Group 1 - The core argument is that the government aims to stimulate consumer spending to drive economic growth, as low consumer spending leads to a vicious cycle of reduced income and further decreased spending [1][10] - The current economic situation shows that many households are financially constrained, with 5.6 billion people having empty bank accounts and 90% of families having savings of less than 100,000 yuan [3][5] - The government is not merely pushing for increased spending but is trying to create an environment where consumers feel confident to spend by addressing their financial concerns [7][10] Group 2 - The government is implementing measures such as lowering deposit interest rates to encourage spending by making money feel less valuable, thus prompting consumers to spend rather than save [5][8] - Issuing consumption vouchers is intended to provide consumers with a sense of financial security, making them feel that their purchases are worthwhile [5][10] - The government recognizes that simply providing financial incentives is insufficient; it is focusing on improving income, social security, and reducing living costs to enhance consumers' spending capacity [10][11] Group 3 - The ultimate goal is to increase consumption growth rates to 5-6% and raise the proportion of final consumption in GDP to over 60%, which requires a multifaceted approach beyond just issuing consumption vouchers [10] - The shift in government strategy emphasizes enhancing consumer capability rather than just stimulating short-term spending, aiming for a healthier and more sustainable economy [10][11] - The government seeks to create a consumer environment where individuals feel they have the financial means and confidence to spend, thus revitalizing the consumption market [11]

Core Points - The Australian Trade Minister Farrell announced the participation of a record number of 256 Australian companies at the 8th China International Import Expo in Shanghai from November 5 to 10 [1] - The expo serves as a significant platform for Australian businesses to showcase high-quality goods and services to China, which is Australia's largest export market [1] - The event is expected to yield tangible results for Australian exporters, with opportunities for signing commercial cooperation memorandums worth millions of Australian dollars [1] Group 1 - The 8th China International Import Expo will take place from November 5 to 10 in Shanghai [1] - A total of 256 Australian companies will participate, marking a historical high for the event [1] - The showcased products will include dairy, meat, seafood, wine, and health products to meet the demands of the Chinese market [1] Group 2 - The expo is anticipated to create job opportunities and drive economic growth for Australia [1] - The event also provides an opportunity for Australia to promote tourism, aiming to offer world-class experiences for Chinese tourists [1] - China is expected to remain Australia's largest trading partner in the foreseeable future [1]

Economic Activity Changes - Economic activity has faced new pressures on both supply and demand sides since October, with a decrease in working days and high inventory levels constraining production [2][9] - The manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with the production index declining more than new orders [2][9] - Demand pressure is particularly evident in the manufacturing sector, as companies accelerate debt repayments, which negatively impacts fixed asset investment [2][20] Profitability and Cost Pressures - Excluding low base effects, industrial profits are weaker than in previous years, with the overall cost rate at a historical high of 85.4% [3][31] - In September, industrial profits increased by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5%, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9% [3][31] Policy Measures to Mitigate Growth Pressure - The introduction of "incremental policies" aims to alleviate the investment squeeze caused by debt resolution, with nearly 300 billion yuan in new policy financial tools deployed by October [4][39] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival is expected to temporarily boost retail sales, while service consumption remains resilient, with a projected retail sales rebound of 3.4% in October [4][50] Export Dynamics - The U.S. threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods starting in November, which may trigger a "rush to export" phenomenon, supporting October's export figures [5][60] - October's export growth is expected to remain resilient at 7%, bolstered by a rise in processing trade imports [5][60] Monthly Data Performance - The PPI is expected to recover slightly to -2.1% in October, driven by rising prices of upstream commodities like copper and coal, despite low capacity utilization in downstream sectors [6][74] - CPI is projected to rise to 0.4% year-on-year in October, supported by low base effects and resilient service consumption [6][82] Summary of Economic Outlook - Policies are actively countering internal economic pressures, with the actual GDP for October estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth [7][95] - High inventory levels and accelerated debt repayments are constraining supply and demand, but recent policy measures and easing U.S.-China tariff tensions may signal a potential economic recovery [7][95]

Economic Activity Changes - Economic activity has faced new pressures on both supply and demand sides since October, with a decrease in working days and high inventory levels constraining production [2][8] - The manufacturing PMI dropped by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity, with production indices declining more than new orders [2][8] - Demand pressure is particularly evident in the manufacturing sector, as companies accelerate debt repayments, which negatively impacts fixed asset investment [2][19] Profitability and Cost Pressures - Excluding low base effects, industrial profits are weaker than in previous years, with the overall cost rate at a historical high of 85.4% [3][30] - In September, industrial profits increased by 2.6 percentage points to 22.5%, but the two-year compound growth rate fell by 5.3 percentage points to -5.9% [3][30] - The increase in profits is primarily driven by short-term indicators, while long-term cost pressures continue to rise, affecting profit sustainability [3][30] Policy Measures to Mitigate Growth Pressure - The introduction of new incremental policies aims to alleviate the investment squeeze caused by debt resolution efforts, with significant financial tools being deployed [4][38] - As of mid-October, nearly 300 billion yuan in new policy financial tools have been issued, focusing on infrastructure and emerging sectors [4][38] - The proportion of special refinancing bonds in new special bonds decreased from 56.9% to 16.7%, indicating a shift in funding allocation [4][38] Consumption Trends - The anticipation of the "Double Eleven" shopping festival is expected to temporarily boost retail sales, with a projected rebound of 3.4% in October [4][49] - Service consumption remains resilient, with holiday spending showing a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, surpassing goods consumption growth of 3.6% [4][49] - However, retail sales may weaken post-festival due to high base effects and consumer demand being "overdrawn" [4][49] Export Dynamics - The recent fluctuations in US-China tariffs have led to a "rush to export," potentially supporting October's export figures, which are expected to maintain resilience at 7% year-on-year [4][59] - The threat of a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods by the US has prompted increased export activity, with port freight volumes rising by 18% in the last week of October [4][59] - The recovery in processing trade imports also supports the outlook for exports, indicating ongoing demand for Chinese goods [4][59] Monthly Data Performance - The PPI is expected to recover slightly to around -2.1% in October, driven by rising prices in upstream commodities despite low capacity utilization in downstream sectors [5][73] - CPI is projected to rise above 0% due to low base effects and resilient service consumption, with an expected recovery to 0.4% year-on-year [5][81] - The actual GDP growth for October is estimated at 4.6%, indicating sustained high growth despite supply-side constraints and demand-side risks [6][94]