Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping by 1.9%, the S&P 500 by 2.71%, and the Nasdaq by 3.56% [3] - The VIX (Volatility Index) surged above 20, indicating increased market fear, while the dollar index fell by 0.57%, oil prices dropped nearly 4%, and Bitcoin decreased by approximately 5.5% [3] - Gold emerged as the only asset gaining value during this sell-off, as investors shifted from "faith" to "safe haven" assets [4] Market Dynamics - The current market turmoil is linked to growing skepticism about the AI bubble, with a potential for a larger market correction as investors rush to exit positions [4] - Systematic selling pressure is evident, with UBS warning that a 1% drop in the S&P could trigger around $20 billion in programmatic selling, escalating to $280 billion with a 3% decline [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6652, and analysts caution that a drop below 6600 could lead to forced selling from previously stabilizing hedges [4] Future Outlook - The market may face further declines, with analysts predicting a "Black Monday" following the recent downturn [4] - The recent "tweet shockwave" has raised concerns about trust in the market, potentially marking the beginning of a trust crisis [4] - Upcoming reports will address the implications of the AI bubble, the demand for gold, and the fate of a significant stock that reflects the broader Chinese capital market [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in the external market during the 2025 National Day holiday, including the fluctuations of various financial and commodity indices, as well as the supply - demand situation of the international and domestic agricultural and energy industries, and international and domestic macro - economic news. 3. Summary by Related Contents External Market Fluctuations during National Day - The US dollar index rose from 97.82 to 98.84, with a 1.04% increase; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.69% [1]. - Among agricultural products, BMD Malaysian palm oil rose 4.48%, CBOT US soybeans rose 2.90%, and ICE US cotton fell 1.19% [1]. - In the energy sector, NYMEX US fuel oil fell 1.36%, NYMEX US crude oil fell 0.21%, and ICE Brent fell 0.11% [1]. - Among non - ferrous metals, COMEX gold rose 4.45%, COMEX silver rose 3.42%, and LME copper rose 3.93% [1]. International Supply - Demand Situation - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's September palm oil inventory is expected to decline by 2.5% compared to August, production is expected to decline by 3.3%, and exports are expected to increase by 7.7%. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to decline by 1%, and Malaysia's is expected to decline by 1%. Global palm oil imports are expected to increase by 4.6% [2][3]. - **Soybeans**: S&P Global lowered the US soybean yield forecast. As of September 1, 2025, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 3.16 billion bushels. Brazilian soybean planting progress is faster than in previous years, and the 2025/26 production is expected to increase. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4850 tons, and corn production is expected to be 5800 tons [4][5][7]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 2002.8 tons, and exports are expected to be 700 tons. Ukraine has approved new export documents for tax - exempt rapeseed and soybean exports [13][14]. Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - On September 30, the total trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased by 71% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill operating rate dropped by 6.41%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [16]. International Macro - news - The US ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, the Challenger job - cuts in September were 54,064, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50. The US government shutdown continued, and the release of some economic data was postponed [18][19]. - OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index was - 5.4 [19]. Domestic Macro - news - On September 30, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the renminbi appreciated). The central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [22]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point [22].

Schiavone的分析显示，当前主要股指仍稳稳站在所有关键移动平均线上方，市场尚未出现需要转向风 险规避的明确信号或催化剂。他表示，当下的策略是"在市场风向改变前，继续追逐风险"。 投资者情绪和头寸状况成为反向的潜在能量，近期的普遍担忧导致许多投资者处于低配状态，而这种担 忧本身可能在市场反转时成为推动上涨的"燃料"。 这一观点也得到了市场流动性状况的支持。Schiavone指出，投资者手中握有高额现金，数万亿美元资 金停泊在货币市场，这意味着潜在买家仍在排队入场，这种缓慢的买家扩张构成了市场的持续利好。 他将当前市场与2010年至2011年的情形进行类比，当时在第一轮量化宽松（QE1）之后，标普500指数 因流动性充裕而在不到一年内上涨了30%，无视疲弱的宏观数据，因为流动性压倒了基本面因素。 流动性压倒基本面，历史重演？ 高盛资深宏观交易员Paolo Schiavone在其最新研报中指出，尽管全球债券市场出现了一些趋势性变化， 但风险资产并未显示出转向避险的信号。他认为，一个"不断扩大的买家宇宙"正在为市场提供支撑，在 流动性压倒基本面的背景下，追逐风险仍是当前的主导策略。 关注"四大资产负债表" 从更 ...

Dow Jones 30 Technical AnalysisThe Dow Jones 30 is sideways as well, really with nowhere to be, as we continue to see a lot of lackluster trading. And again, I think it’s the same situation here, we’re just basically killing time between now and the jobs number. If we do fall from here, I think the 46,000 level could be an area of support as traders will be watching it very closely.Even below there, then you have the 50 day EMA and the 45,000 level, which should be a hard floor in the market. I believe that ...

两类配置思路：保守防御与均衡进攻 在"金鼎杯"买方投顾资产配置大赛（以下简称"大赛"）8月上榜参赛者复盘直播的尾声，8月榜第二 名"投基论道（梁山）"（参赛组合名）与8月榜第四名 "多资产轮动"（参赛组合名）两位优秀参赛者， 结合宏观环境与市场信号，分享了9-10月的市场展望与配置思路。 市场核心变量：美联储政策与热点轮动 两位参赛者均认为，9-10 月市场的核心影响因素集中在两点，需重点跟踪： 一，美联储降息节奏：9 月 17 日美联储议息会议是关键节点。"投基论道（梁山）"指出，"若降息幅度 符合或超预期，将利好港股流动性（港币与美元挂钩）及贵金属价格（美元走弱支撑）"；"多资产轮 动"补充道，"美联储降息周期开启后，全球风险资产的估值中枢有望上移，但需警惕 ' 预期兑现后的回 调 '"。 二，A 股热点高低切：8 月科技等高位板块已出现波动，9 月大概率延续 "高低切" 趋势。"投基论道 （梁山）"观察到，"前期高标板块回调明显，资金开始流向低位的恒生科技、创新药等领域"；"多资产 轮动"则认为，"A 股整体需偏保守，结构性机会集中在低估值的防御性板块"。 核心逻辑是 "A 股为主战场，港股抓补涨"，具 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 4.00%-4.25%, indicating the start of a global easing trend, which will impact various asset prices and investment strategies [1][5]. Group 1: Impact on Different Asset Classes - Historical data from 1970 shows that during global easing cycles, the return hierarchy is: equities > gold > bonds > US dollar > other commodities [5]. - In the context of the US economy, the prevailing view on Wall Street is a mild recession, with the current rate cut being termed as "preemptive" to ensure a soft landing [5][6]. Group 2: A-shares and H-shares - A-shares and H-shares have experienced six instances of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with three being "preemptive" (1995, 1998, 2019), showing inconsistent market responses [6]. - For example, during the 1995 rate cut, the Shanghai Composite Index initially rose but then fell significantly, while in 1998, it showed a clear upward trend [7]. - The H-share market tends to respond more positively to rate cuts due to its sensitivity to US dollar liquidity, benefiting from the influx of capital when the Fed eases [10]. Group 3: Bonds - Bonds generally appreciate during rate cut cycles, with long-term bonds showing more significant gains compared to short-term ones [8]. - The logic is straightforward: a rate cut leads to lower bond yields, which in turn raises bond prices [8][17]. Group 4: Gold - While many factors influence gold prices, historical evidence suggests that "preemptive" rate cuts have a limited impact on gold, although its financial and anti-inflation properties remain strong [12]. Group 5: US Stocks - Historically, during five instances of "preemptive" rate cuts, major US stock indices have generally risen, with an average increase of over 17% across various periods [15][16]. - The most recent preemptive cut in 2019 saw modest gains in major indices, indicating that while returns can be positive, they may vary significantly based on economic conditions [15]. Group 6: US Dollar Index - The relationship between rate cuts and the US dollar index is complex; while rate cuts can reduce the dollar's attractiveness, a stronger US economy can still support a rising dollar [20][21]. - Historical data shows mixed results for the dollar index during rate cut cycles, with three instances of decline and one of increase [22].

Group 1 - The article discusses the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of a 25 basis point cut from 4.5% to 4.25% [1][2][24] - Historical patterns indicate that once the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, various asset classes often experience significant rallies [2][4] - The current economic indicators suggest that the ongoing rate cut cycle resembles the preventive rate cuts of 1995, with a low unemployment rate of 4.1% and GDP growth [9][10] Group 2 - The article outlines three historical rate-cutting scenarios: preventive (1995), crisis (2007), and panic (2020), each leading to different asset performance outcomes [11][12][19] - In the 1995 scenario, a modest rate cut led to a significant bull market in stocks, while the 2007 cuts preceded a major financial crisis [6][7][10] - The 2020 emergency cuts resulted in unprecedented liquidity, causing Bitcoin to surge from $3,800 to $69,000, highlighting the impact of aggressive monetary policy on asset prices [8][18][19] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding the context of rate cuts, as the reasons behind them can significantly influence market reactions [31][32] - It notes that the current market sentiment is cautious yet optimistic, with Bitcoin trading near historical highs, unlike the previous bear market conditions seen in 2019 [27][49] - The potential for a "rational prosperity" scenario is discussed, where Bitcoin may not see explosive growth but could experience steady increases as liquidity increases [27][49] Group 4 - The performance of traditional assets during rate-cutting cycles is analyzed, showing that not all rate cuts lead to stock market rallies [30][31] - Defensive sectors tend to outperform during economic downturns, while cyclical sectors may do better in stronger economic conditions [32][34] - The article also highlights the stable performance of gold during rate cuts, with an average increase of 32% over two years in past cycles [40][44][45] Group 5 - The article concludes by suggesting that the next 6-12 months could be critical for asset performance as the current rate-cutting cycle progresses [50][51] - It raises the possibility of unexpected events influencing market dynamics, such as geopolitical tensions or technological advancements [51][52] - The changing landscape of the monetary system and the role of cryptocurrencies as a reflection of these changes are emphasized [53][54]

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally is primarily driven by capital inflow and valuation enhancement due to declining interest rates, with a notable increase in personal investor participation [3][10][27]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent stock market increase has seen a rise of over 1000 points, yet the overall market valuation remains reasonable without signs of a bubble [3][10]. - A-shares financing balance has surpassed the peak levels of 2015, but the proportion of financing balance to circulating market value is significantly lower than in 2015, indicating a more stable market environment [3][13]. - The average P/E ratio of the CSI 300 index is around 14 times, compared to 29 times for the S&P 500 and 41 times for the Nasdaq, suggesting that A-shares are still reasonably valued [18][20]. Group 2: Growth and Earnings - The growth potential of the market is contingent on sustained corporate earnings growth, with A-share companies' net profit growth averaging only 2.5% in the first half of 2025 [27]. - The net profit of A-share companies for the first half of 2025 reached 2.99 trillion yuan, marking a 2.5% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with significant growth in sectors like advanced manufacturing and digital economy [25][27]. - The market's rebound is influenced by the decline in deposit rates, which enhances valuations, but long-term bullish trends require continuous earnings growth [27]. Group 3: Policy and Market Sentiment - The Chinese government aims to enhance the attractiveness and inclusivity of the capital market, which is expected to support a stable upward trend in the market [8][9]. - There are numerous policy tools available to support the market, and a cautious optimism is advised as the market is not expected to experience extreme fluctuations [6][42]. - The current market environment differs from previous years, with a shift from an expanding to a contracting balance sheet for households, which limits the potential for excessive market bubbles [5][43]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - The A-share market is characterized by rationality, with significant differentiation in returns among actively managed equity funds, highlighting the importance of underlying asset selection [28]. - A diversified investment strategy across various markets, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, bonds, and commodities, is recommended to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [34][37]. - The ongoing advancements in technology, particularly in AI, present significant growth opportunities, but investors should remain cautious and avoid speculative narratives [38][39].

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is hovering near a 41-month low, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have reached record highs, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - The market is pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, reflecting a dovish sentiment [1] - If the Fed only implements the expected 25 basis point cut, a "buy the rumor, sell the news" reaction may occur, potentially leading to a rebound in the dollar and profit-taking in the US stock market [1] Group 2: Rate Cut Speculations - To sustain the dollar's decline and the rise of US assets, a 50 basis point cut and acknowledgment of aggressive easing by Fed Chair Powell may be necessary [1] - Although the market perceives only a 3% probability for a 50 basis point cut, the possibility cannot be ruled out, especially if US employment data is significantly revised downward [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a new round of increases driven by liquidity, with several factors alleviating liquidity constraints in September [1] - The easing of liquidity constraints is attributed to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, improved funding conditions in Hong Kong, continuous inflow of southbound funds, and the resolution of profit concerns following interim reports [1][2] Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The current economic recovery is weak, with a notable divergence between old and new economic structures, while the Chinese government continues to implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [2] - The focus of industrial policy is on "Artificial Intelligence+", with the State Council issuing relevant action plans to accelerate the cultivation of new productive forces [2] Group 3: Liquidity and Valuation - The disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data in August, which fell significantly below expectations, has led to a projected interest rate cut in September, with a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points expected this year [3] - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow exceeding 1 trillion HKD this year, accounting for approximately 30% of market transactions, providing significant support to the market [3] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy includes three aggressive sectors (technology, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials) and two defensive positions (turnaround stocks and high-dividend stocks) [4] - Technology stocks are expected to see growth due to the resolution of interim report concerns and sustained capital expenditure, while the valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is only half that of the Nasdaq, indicating potential for recovery [4] - Non-ferrous metals are driven by a combination of U.S. dollar depreciation, low interest rates, and liquidity, while high-dividend stocks are in demand due to stable dividend capabilities and the growing interest in "fixed income plus" products among southbound investors [4]