1月8日，步入2026年1月，全球金融市场呈现出极为活跃的交易态势。Radex Markets 瑞德克斯观察到， 贵金属板块在新年伊始便展现出强劲的"多头势能"，周一开盘留下的巨大向上跳空缺口不仅未被回补， 反而成为了价格进一步攀升的踏板。目前，现货黄金已第二次向 4500 美元/盎司的关键心理关口发起强 力冲击，地缘局势的突发波动促使避险资金如潮水般涌入大宗商品市场。 在这种避险情绪的带动下，白银的表现甚至盖过了黄金的光芒。Radex Markets 瑞德克斯表示，白银自 本周初以来的累计涨幅已超过 10%，昨日收盘更是稳稳站上 80 美元/盎司的重要关口。与此同时，工业 金属也并未缺席这场盛宴，铂金与钯金正以极高的相关性跟随白银上行。而在全球基建预期与工业复苏 的逻辑支撑下，铜期货价格也于昨日触及 6 美元/磅的历史巅峰。 针对能源市场的疲软表现，原油价格与金属价格的走势背离反映了市场对供需基本面的不同定价。尽管 外界扰动不断，但布伦特原油（BRENT）已回落至 60 美元/桶附近。随着美国宣布将从委内瑞拉接收 多达 5000 万桶的原油交付，这种"超预期供应"无疑给市场蒙上了阴影。Radex Marke ...

2025年，全球关税摩擦愈演愈烈，美联储年内三度降息累计75个基点，人工智能狂潮席卷全球，地缘紧 张局势加剧，金融市场波动剧烈。 美国股市三大股指均实现两位数的涨幅，连续第三年上涨；美元去年下跌逾9%，录得2017年以来最大年 跌幅；美国10年期收益率自2020年以来首次出现年度下跌，而两年期收益率则有望创下2020年以来的最 大年度跌幅。 大宗商品方面，黄金创下46年来最大年度涨幅，创下有史以来最强劲的年度表现，白银和铂金年度表现 更是创下纪录；LME期铜创下16年来最大年度涨幅，年底再创纪录新高；CBOT大豆录得三年来首个年度 涨幅，由于中国重返美国市场；油价去年大跌近20%，创2020年以来最大年度跌幅。追踪全球大宗商品走 势的CRB指数去年上涨0.69%。 **贵金属成为最大赢家** **美国股市录得两位数涨幅** 美国股市三大股指2025年录得强劲年度涨幅，标普500指数、道琼斯工业指数和纳斯达克指数今年均实现 两位数的涨幅。这标志着三大股指连续第三年上涨，上一次出现这种情况是在2019-2021年。这一年的过 山车式行情主要由特朗普总统的关税不确定性以及围绕人工智能（AI）重点股票的亢奋情绪主导。 ...

市场主流观点汇总 2025/12/23 报告说明 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/12/19 | | 2025/12/15 | 至 | 2025/12/19 | | | 焦煤 | 1108.00 | 焦煤 | | | 9.00% | | | PTA | 4882.00 | PTA | | 5.81% | | | | 多晶硅 | 60245.00 | ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：PANews 比特币在 2025 年多次新高，但拉长到 10 年对比，一个尴尬的事实出现了：今年的 BTC，跑输了黄 金、美股，甚至不如不少传统资产。 价格在创新高，体感却在变差，这可能是今年币圈最真实的情绪之一。 当 BTC 不再是默认的"年度最优解"，加密正在从高成长资产，变成一个被反复比较、被严格定价的风 险资产。 也许这就是 2025年加密行业真正需要面对的问题： 我们是在熬阵痛，还是正在告别那个"只要参与就有回报"的时代？ | #PANews加密年终盘点 | | --- | | ● A股:上证指数 | | | ● 黄金:伦敦现货金 | | ● 美股:纳斯达克指数 | | | ● 原油:WTI原油期货价格 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ● 房价:新建商品住宅价格指数 | | | ● 外汇:美元兑在岸人民币汇率 | | ● 国债:国债指数 | | ● BTC: 比特币 | | | 2025 | 黄金 | 美股 | A股 | 国债 | 房 ...

Market Overview - The A-share and Hong Kong markets have been the best-performing globally this year, with average returns exceeding 20% despite recent profit pullbacks [1] - The Hang Seng Index has experienced a decline, with the peak drop around 8%, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as fluctuating interest rate expectations from the Federal Reserve and Japan [4][5] Sector Performance - Key sectors in the Hong Kong market, including e-commerce, AI, and new energy vehicles, are facing challenges, leading to reduced profitability and sales expectations [5] - The upcoming unlock of restricted shares in November and December, including significant companies like CATL and Hengrui Medicine, is expected to exert selling pressure on the market [5] Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Technology Index is currently valued at only 26% of its historical valuation, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors looking to engage with technology and internet leaders [7] - For investors with access to overseas brokerage accounts, the U.S. stock market offers a wide range of investment options, with the S&P 500 being a historically strong asset class [9][12] ETF and Index Insights - The newly launched China Technology Innovation ETF (CNQQ) aims to capture the growth of Chinese tech companies, with a focus on those with significant R&D investments [13][14] - The ETF market in the U.S. is robust, with over $10 trillion in assets, providing various strategies and exposure to different sectors [9] Conclusion - The current market conditions suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for both A-shares and U.S. equities, with potential for strategic investments in technology and growth sectors [16][18]

关注点一：12月声明强调失业率上升。经济与通胀的整体判断未发生变化，仍指出经济活动以温和速度 扩张，通胀较年初有所回升并保持在相对高位。就业部分的措辞有所调整，删除了此前"仍处于低 位"(remained low)的描述，改为"就业增长放缓，失业率小幅上升"(has edged up)，弱化的劳动力市场韧 性为本次降息提供直接的理由。此外，在讨论后续联邦基金利率目标区间的调整时，新增了"调整程度 和时机"的表述。 智通财经APP获悉，中国银河证券发布12月FOMC会议点评，12月11日，美联储将基准利率下调25个基 点至3.50%-3.75%，符合市场预期，年内已累计降息75个基点。由于本次降息已基本被定价，市场关注 的核心不在利率本身，而在鲍威尔的措辞偏向、点阵图反映的政策路径、经济预测的调整幅度，以及是 否会启动类似QE的资产购买安排。鲍威尔在新闻发布会中的表态整体温和偏鸽。银河证券提到，美联 储内部分歧有所扩大。分歧在决议投票和点阵图中均有所体现。 中国银河证券主要观点如下： 降息行为被提前定价，市场更关注增量信息：12月11日，美联储将基准利率下调25个基点至 3.50%-3.75%，符合市场预期，年 ...

Group 1 - The market is showing cautious sentiment regarding potential adjustments in monetary policy, as evidenced by the dollar index retreating to a key level of 98.80 [1] - Major dollar currency pairs, such as USD/JPY and USD/CAD, are finding support around 154.80 and 1.38 respectively, reflecting market expectations [1] Group 2 - The commodity market is experiencing a divergence, with silver prices nearing $60 per ounce, marking a historical high, while gold remains below $4260 per ounce, indicating relative underperformance [3] - The Nasdaq index is currently around 25,800 points, approximately 500 points away from its historical peak, while the S&P 500 index is also near record levels, just 40 points off [3] Group 3 - The recent performance of USD/CAD aligns with market expectations regarding monetary policy, with prices consolidating around 1.38, which corresponds to the mid-support of a medium-term channel [5] - If the consolidation pattern continues, the lower support level to watch is around 1.37, with potential upward movement if prices exceed 1.3970 [5] Group 4 - USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation phase, testing the upper boundary of an upward channel that has acted as resistance since May [8] - If the price holds above 154.80, it may turn into support, with potential upward testing towards the 159 to 160 range if the trend continues [8]

Core Points - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.2% [1] - The Dow Jones index fell by 0.3% [1] - The Nasdaq index declined by 0.1% [1]

Group 1 - Domestic photovoltaic glass production decreased by 4.07% month-on-month in November, with expectations of a 4.46% increase in December due to more production days and increased output from previously ignited furnaces [2] - The demand for photovoltaic glass continues to decline, leading to heightened risks of oversupply in the market [2] Group 2 - The World Gold Council's senior market strategist Joseph Cavatoni indicates that the strategic rationale for allocating to gold remains strong, with market predictions for gold prices in 2024 expected to range between $4,000 and $5,300 [3] - OPEC+ is set to assess the global oil market, with indications of oversupply prompting member countries to likely maintain stable production levels in the first quarter of next year [3] Group 3 - Various commodities showed price fluctuations, with CMX gold rising by 1.57% to $4,258.78 and LME copper increasing by 2.31% to $11,179.00 [4] - The WTI crude oil price slightly decreased by 0.03% to $58.994, while Brent crude oil fell by 0.04% to $62.890 [4]

Economic Impact - The U.S. government shutdown lasted 43 days, with a projected impact of -1.5% on Q4 2025 GDP and +2.2% on Q1 2026 GDP due to the shutdown effects[2] - The CBO estimates that a six-week shutdown will reduce real GDP by $28 billion in 2025 dollars[41] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December dropped from 70% to 43% following hawkish comments from Fed officials[2] - Key economic data, particularly the November non-farm payrolls, will be crucial for the December FOMC meeting, as October's data may be incomplete[2][4] Market Reactions - U.S. stock markets initially rose but later retraced gains due to changing rate cut expectations, with the S&P 500 up 0.08% and the Nasdaq down 0.45% for the week[3] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 5.16 basis points to 4.148%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4.42 basis points to 3.606%[3] Inflation and Employment Data - The ADP reported a significant decline in private sector jobs, with an average weekly loss of 11,250 jobs as of October 25[3] - The NFIB small business optimism index for October was recorded at 98.2, slightly below expectations[3] Future Monetary Policy - The new Fed chair appointed by Trump may influence a prolonged period of loose monetary policy, potentially leading to rate cuts exceeding market expectations[4] - Risks include potential inflation spikes if the Fed cuts rates too aggressively or maintains high rates for too long, which could trigger liquidity crises[4]