市场主流观点汇总 2025/8/26 此报告，意在客观反映行业内期货公司、证券公司对大宗商品各品种的 研究观点，追踪热点品种，分析市场投资情绪，总结投资驱动逻辑等。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，仅供公司内部使用，仅作参考之用。 报告说明 期货从业资格证号：F3036000 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0016090 黄 恬 期货从业资格证号：F03100883 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0021089 | 报告中策略观点和投资逻辑是基于所采纳的机构当周公开发布的研究报 | | --- | | 告，对于各期货品种的多空观点、交易逻辑进行整理加工汇总而成，收 | | 盘价数据选择上周五，周度涨跌为上周五较前一周五收盘价变动幅度。 | | 【行情数据】 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 资产类别 | 细分品种 | 收盘价 | | 周度涨跌情况 | | | | | 数据时点 | | 2025/8/22 | | 2025/8/18 | 至 | 2025/8/22 | | | | PTA | 4868.00 | PTA | | ...

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 08 月 23 日 以持久战心态看待债市跌破年线 ——债市策略思考 核心观点 对于长牛资产，跌破年线通常意味着较好入场点，建议投资者可以用持久战心态和防 守反击战术应对当前卡玛比率不足的债市格局。 ❑ 资产价格突破年线意味着什么？ 作为中长期趋势的锚定指标，年线（即 MA250）通常代表过去一整年的平均成本， 通常被视作市场的长期均衡价位。对债券市场而言，日线向下跌穿年线往往代表 市场情绪容易转弱，通常被解读为趋势转弱。值得注意的是，投资者在日常使用 时需特别注意"假突破"风险。若月内快速收复，则可能存在假突破风险；但有效跌 穿后未及时收回，通常导致年线转换为强阻力位。 ❑ 三类主流资产跌破年线后的走势复盘 10 年期国债期货：债券市场长期动量趋势明显，10 年期国债主力合约年线附近或 存在较强支撑。 上证指数：近年以来上证指数日线曾数次上穿/下穿年线，同时伴随着较为强势的 趋势性行情，但年线附近未出现明显支撑。 纳斯达克指数：纳指长期趋势明显，年线附近存在较强支撑位。 ❑ 以持久战心态看待债市跌破年线 对于长牛资产， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price changes and the corresponding multi - and short - term logics[2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Price Data - **Commodities**: From August 11 to August 15, 2025, palm oil had the highest weekly increase of 5.11% at a closing price of 9460.00; while gold had the largest weekly decline of 1.52% at a closing price of 775.80. Other commodities like polysilicon, bean meal also showed varying degrees of increase or decrease[3]. - **Stocks**: A - shares (CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.), overseas stocks (Nikkei 225, S&P 500, etc.) generally showed an upward trend. For example, CSI 500 increased by 3.88%[3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese 10 - year government bonds increased by 2.36%, while 2 - year government bonds decreased by 0.26%[3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro against the US dollar increased by 0.54%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.43%[3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions, 4 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included increased trading volume in the stock market, favorable policies, and improved liquidity. Bearish factors were potential over - heating in some indices and high A - share valuations[5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were loose funds, central bank's net injection, and weak economic data. Bearish factors were volatile long - term bonds and strong stock market performance[5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions, 2 were bullish, 4 were bearish, and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors included high - load operation of US refineries and expected end of OPEC+ production increase. Bearish factors were the progress of US - Russia summit and the slowdown of Asian oil demand[6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions, 4 were bullish and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were strong export data and low inventory in some regions. Bearish factors were the call for policy re - evaluation in Indonesia and increased domestic inventory[6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum**: Among 7 institutions, 1 was bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were improved macro - policies and low domestic inventory. Bearish factors were US tariff expansion and unstable trade situation[7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Methanol**: Among 8 institutions, 5 were bearish and 3 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were policy support and cost increase. Bearish factors were high import volume and low demand in the off - season[7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 8 institutions, 1 was bearish and 7 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were expected Fed rate cuts and economic data deterioration. Bearish factors were high PPI data and improved risk appetite[8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 8 institutions, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 expected a sideways trend. Bullish factors were increased iron - water production and decreased global shipments. Bearish factors were increased port inventory and weak demand for steel products[8].

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that the next important time point may be in the late third quarter of 2025, with a suggested asset allocation order of stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [2][4] - In the first half of 2025, China's actual GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0% [2][4] - Economic data from July shows signs of growth pressure, including weakened external demand due to increased tariffs from the US and sluggish domestic consumption [2][4] Asset Performance - The A-share market saw an increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.37% and the CSI 300 stock index futures up by 2.83% [11][12] - Commodity futures showed mixed results, with coking coal futures up by 0.33% and iron ore down by 1.65% [11][12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 6 basis points to 1.75%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.26% [11][12] Policy Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year, suggesting that policies should be implemented to enhance efficiency and release domestic demand [2][4] - It is noted that the fiscal policy may have room for further adjustments within the year, particularly in light of external pressures easing due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the TMT sector has shown significant growth, with the ChiNext index leading with an 8.58% increase, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 4.55% [35][36] - The report also notes that the banking sector has faced declines, with a drop of 3.22% [35][36] Financial Data - In July, new social financing amounted to 1.13 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, indicating weak financing demand in the real economy [4][17] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a relatively strong liquidity environment despite weak economic indicators [4][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US stock market, highlighting the impact of employment data and the anticipation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which has led to a shift from "recession trading" to "rate cut trading" [5][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - In early August, the S&P 500 index fell by 1.60%, while by August 4, it had risen by 1.47%, indicating a significant market reversal [6]. - The Nasdaq index experienced a drop of 2.24% on August 1, followed by a recovery of 1.95% by August 4 [6]. - The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 25.5 basis points initially, then only by 2.7 basis points, reflecting changing investor sentiment [6]. Group 2: Economic Context - The article explains the concepts of "rate cut trading" and "recession trading," noting that they are responses to economic data but in opposite directions [7][9]. - Rate cut trading occurs when the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates, which generally supports risk assets, while recession trading happens during economic downturns, negatively impacting risk assets [10]. Group 3: Historical Rate Cut Cycles - The article reviews three historical rate cut cycles since 2000, noting that each was initiated during economic difficulties [14][16]. - The first cycle (2001-2003) saw a cumulative rate cut of 550 basis points, with the S&P 500 dropping 26.19% during the rate cut period [21][22]. - The second cycle (2007-2008) involved a 500 basis point cut, with the S&P 500 declining 38.72% during the rate cut period [26]. - The third cycle (2019-2020) was different as it began without a significant recession, but the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic led to further cuts [27][29]. Group 4: Current Economic Indicators - Recent employment data showed a significant downward revision, with July's non-farm payrolls at 73,000, well below expectations [39]. - The downward revision reflects a cooling job market, potentially influenced by tariff policies affecting hiring [40][41]. - The article suggests that the current economic environment may not indicate a severe recession, which could mitigate risks for equity assets [45][47]. Group 5: Asset Performance Expectations - The article outlines expected asset performance during the current and past rate cut cycles, noting that equities typically decline during rapid rate cuts due to underlying economic challenges [33]. - Fixed income assets like US Treasuries generally perform well during rate cuts, while gold tends to rise due to its safe-haven status [34][35]. - The current environment suggests that while equities may face some pressure, the absence of a significant global crisis could provide some support [47].

Market Data Summary - The report presents the closing prices and weekly price changes of various assets as of August 1, 2025, compared to July 28, 2025. Commodities like crude oil had a 2.92% increase, while most others, such as palm oil, soybean meal, and copper, experienced declines. A - shares, overseas stocks, and bonds also mostly saw negative changes, with exceptions like the US dollar index and US dollar mid - price showing increases [2]. Commodity Views Summary Macro - Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The report collected views from 8 institutions, with 3 bullish, 2 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors include the upcoming full - scale opening of childcare subsidy applications, the World Artificial Intelligence Conference boosting the tech sector, central bank liquidity injection, and the extension of the tariff buffer period. Bearish factors involve the lack of new policy surprises in the Politburo meeting, reduced A - share trading volume, the Fed's unchanged interest rate, a decrease in ETF shares tracking the CSI 300, and a decline in the July manufacturing PMI [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - Seven institutions' views were collected, with 0 bullish, 1 bearish, and 6 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are the increasing expectation of Fed rate cuts, the unchanged expectation of loose monetary policy, stable - growth policies not exceeding expectations, and the tax - free advantage of existing bonds. Bearish factors include the taxation of new bonds reducing their attractiveness, positive market risk appetite diverting funds to stocks, and low short - term chasing value [4]. Energy Sector - For crude oil, 8 institutions' views were gathered, with 2 bullish, 3 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are high US refinery operating rates, increased US sanctions on Russian oil, OPEC +'s lower - than - expected production increase, and improved macro sentiment due to a tariff agreement. Bearish factors include lower - than - expected US gasoline consumption, OPEC +'s decision to accelerate production in September, a shift in global oil demand from strong to weak, and a significant downward revision of US non - farm payroll data [5]. Agricultural Products Sector - Regarding live hogs, 8 institutions' views were collected, with 1 bullish, 3 bearish, and 4 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are strong expectations of policy - driven capacity reduction, farmers' resistance to price cuts, a slower slaughter pace, and a potential decrease in August supply after an increase in July. Bearish factors are the large supply of heavy hogs, an expected increase in piglet supply from September to the end of the year, high hog inventories, and suppressed demand due to summer and high temperatures [5]. Non - Ferrous Metals Sector Aluminum - Eight institutions' views were gathered, with 0 bullish, 5 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are low domestic aluminum ingot inventories, increased weekly production of aluminum strips and foils, improved downstream profits, and moderate inventory accumulation. Bearish factors are weakening macro sentiment, tariff - affected exports to the US, weakening production and orders of aluminum profiles, and supply pressure during the inventory accumulation phase [6]. Chemicals - Soda Ash - Eight institutions' views were collected, with 0 bullish, 5 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are stable downstream demand, downstream inventory reduction and subsequent replenishment needs, and potential short - covering rallies. Bearish factors are long - term over - capacity issues, a return to fundamental trading due to weakening macro sentiment, reduced demand expectations for photovoltaic glass, and low motivation for producers to cut production [6]. Precious Metals - Gold - Seven institutions' views were collected, with 4 bullish, 0 bearish, and 3 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are concerns about economic recession due to revised US non - farm payroll data, concerns about monetary policy independence from White House personnel changes, increased safe - haven demand due to a falling US dollar index and a slumping stock market, a technical breakthrough, and the potential for further upward movement after a long consolidation. Bearish factors are reduced uncertainty from US - Japan and US - EU tariff agreements, a hawkish stance from Powell, and potential further rebounds in the US dollar index [7]. Black Metals - Iron Ore - Eight institutions' views were gathered, with 0 bullish, 3 bearish, and 5 expecting a sideways trend. Bullish factors are high steel mill profit margins, a decline in overseas ore shipments, a decrease in port iron ore inventories, and high hot metal production. Bearish factors are an increase in domestic port arrivals, the fading of anti - cut - throat competition trading, lower - than - expected policy strength from the Politburo meeting, an increase in non - Australian and non - Brazilian ore shipments, and a decrease in daily hot metal production due to adverse weather [7].

Report Overview - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic [1] Market Data Summary Commodity Prices and Weekly Changes - From July 21 to July 25, 2025, commodities like coking coal, glass, and polysilicon had significant price increases, with coking coal rising 35.96%, glass 25.99%, and polysilicon 16.36%. Some commodities like corn, palm oil, and crude oil saw price drops, with corn down 0.13%, palm oil 0.31%, and crude oil 0.56% [2] A - share Indexes - A - share indexes such as CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 all increased, with CSI 500 rising 3.28%, SSE 50 1.12%, and CSI 300 1.69% [2] Overseas Stock Indexes - Overseas stock indexes including Nikkei 225, Hang Seng Index, and S&P 500 also rose, with Nikkei 225 up 4.11%, Hang Seng Index 2.27%, and S&P 500 1.46% [2] Bond Market - Chinese government bonds of different maturities showed price increases, with 5 - year bonds rising 5.91%, 10 - year bonds 4.35%, and 2 - year bonds 3.28% [2] Foreign Exchange Market - The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.99%, while the US dollar index decreased by 0.80%, and the US dollar middle - price decreased by 0.11% [2] Commodity Views Summary Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include large - scale infrastructure projects, A - share market trends, and high trading volume. Bearish factors involve profit - taking pressure, regulatory measures, and increased market risk aversion [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include loose monetary policy and potential interest rate cuts. Bearish factors involve the stock - bond seesaw effect and changes in market expectations [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include strong demand in the peak season and supply - side issues. Bearish factors involve high refinery operating rates and seasonal demand changes [5] Agricultural Products Sector Palm Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include policy support and supply - demand imbalances. Bearish factors involve high production and low exports [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include policy support and low inventory. Bearish factors involve macro events and weakening demand [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include policy expectations and inventory changes. Bearish factors involve speculative inventory and weak real - estate demand [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include expected interest rate cuts and increased risk aversion. Bearish factors involve trade negotiation progress and a strong US dollar [7] Black Metals Sector Coking Coal - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish factors include high iron - water production and price increases in related products. Bearish factors involve regulatory policies and increased supply [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. is approaching a deadline for tariffs, prompting multiple countries to engage in last-minute negotiations [1] - Nationwide anti-government protests have erupted in Ukraine, marking the first such occurrence since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - Current market signals indicate continued selling pressure on WTI crude oil, while gold remains favored by bullish sentiment [1] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Index shows a bullish sentiment of 32% and bearish sentiment of 68% [3] - The S&P 500 Index has a bullish sentiment of 37% and bearish sentiment of 63% [3] - The Nasdaq Index reflects a bullish sentiment of 55% and bearish sentiment of 45% [3] - The Dow Jones Index indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 81% and a bearish sentiment of 19% [3] - The Nikkei 225 Index shows a bullish sentiment of 82% and bearish sentiment of 18% [3] - The DAX 40 Index has a bullish sentiment of 84% and bearish sentiment of 16% [3] Group 3 - In the forex market, the Euro/USD pair has a bullish sentiment of 14% and bearish sentiment of 86% [3] - The Euro/GBP pair shows a bullish sentiment of 14% and bearish sentiment of 86% [3] - The Euro/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 7% and bearish sentiment of 93% [3] - The Euro/AUD pair indicates a bullish sentiment of 18% and bearish sentiment of 82% [3] - The GBP/USD pair shows a strong bullish sentiment of 79% and bearish sentiment of 21% [3] - The GBP/JPY pair has a bullish sentiment of 25% and bearish sentiment of 75% [3] - The USD/JPY pair reflects a bullish sentiment of 37% and bearish sentiment of 63% [3] - The USD/CAD pair shows a bullish sentiment of 22% and bearish sentiment of 78% [3] - The USD/CHF pair indicates a strong bullish sentiment of 93% and bearish sentiment of 7% [3]

Group 1 - Powell faces criminal charges, while the White House states that Trump has no plans to dismiss Powell [1] - New round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine is scheduled for tomorrow, indicating ongoing geopolitical tensions [1] - Israel has launched large-scale airstrikes against Houthi forces, reflecting regional conflicts [1] Group 2 - Current market sentiment shows a stalemate in gold trading, with signals indicating potential sell-off in WTI crude oil [1] - The sentiment in various indices shows a mixed outlook, with the S&P 500 at 71% bullish and 29% bearish, while the Nasdaq is evenly split at 50% [3] - In the foreign exchange market, the Euro against the Dollar shows a significant bearish sentiment at 77% [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the ongoing financial strategies and market movements influenced by central banks, particularly focusing on Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve, highlighting a "financial cold war" among global institutions [1] Group 1: Sovereign Trend Channels - The Japanese yen is currently in an upward channel (152-160), with the Bank of Japan having spent $11 billion to maintain this range, and a potential shift expected around July 22 with the CPI release [1] - Gold is experiencing a narrowing triangle pattern (2440 to 2300), with central banks purchasing gold at an average price of $2350, anticipating a shift within 72 hours of a Middle East ceasefire agreement [1] - The Nasdaq is in a downward channel (20500 to 18700), with a critical support level at 19200, and a potential shift expected around July 24 with Nvidia's earnings report [1] - Oil prices are fluctuating within a wedge pattern (81 to 86), with Saudi Arabia's fiscal balance point at $78, and a shift anticipated due to warnings regarding Iranian nuclear facilities [1] Group 2: Trading Strategies - A strategy for trading within sovereign channels involves shorting when the upper channel experiences a 300% increase in volume, as evidenced by a successful short on the yen at 159.8, yielding a profit of 400 points [1] - When the lower channel shows central bank support, a strategy of leveraging to buy and gamma squeezing is recommended, with a successful case of buying gold at 2320 leading to a $60 increase [1] - A dual breakout order strategy is suggested when the channel narrows to 10 degrees, with a notable case of Bitcoin experiencing significant volatility around $60000 [1] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The article outlines a three-track resonance trading system, emphasizing the importance of geopolitical events, such as oil and gold price movements during conflicts, with a specific example of oil breaking the upper channel at $85 following Israeli airstrikes [2] - The COT positioning divergence is highlighted as a tool for identifying market traps, where a price breakout above the upper channel with record speculative long positions should trigger a short position [2] - The article also mentions the significance of market psychology, where panic selling by retail investors can accelerate price breaks, necessitating central bank intervention, as seen in past currency crises [2]