Geopolitical Risk and Market Impact - On February 28, 2026, the U.S. and Israel launched a preemptive military strike against Iran, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East[1] - The duration of the conflict is a key variable influencing asset performance, with historical precedents indicating outcomes can range from quick victories to protracted wars[2] Historical Context and Asset Behavior - Historical conflicts show that asset prices typically rise on expectations but may fall once the reality of war sets in, exemplified by the "buy the rumor, sell the news" phenomenon[2] - Oil prices are the most sensitive to conflict changes, with significant price fluctuations observed during past conflicts, such as a 13% increase in WTI crude oil prices prior to the June 2025 conflict[11] Current Conflict Analysis - The current U.S.-Iran conflict is characterized by a stronger Iranian response compared to previous conflicts, with potential scenarios ranging from internal leadership changes in Iran to escalated military actions[3] - The market's risk appetite is expected to fluctuate based on the conflict's duration and intensity, impacting oil prices and other assets significantly[3] Asset Class Reactions - Oil prices could rise by 10%-20% if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, which is critical for global oil supply, as it accounts for approximately 20% of daily oil transport[40] - Gold and silver are expected to react positively to the conflict, with gold's price logic being stronger than in previous conflicts due to the current monetary policy environment[39] Stock Market Dynamics - U.S. stock markets may experience short-term volatility but are likely to maintain a bullish trend in the long run, as seen in past conflicts where markets recovered after initial shocks[41] - A-share markets showed a cumulative decline of 2.16% during the conflict escalation phase but rebounded by 3.84% following the de-escalation announcement[21] Bond Market Considerations - The domestic bond market is expected to be less affected by geopolitical tensions, with movements primarily driven by domestic economic factors and market sentiment[22] - If inflation expectations rise due to increased oil prices, the bond market may face downward pressure, but the primary focus will remain on domestic economic indicators and policy responses[43]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a broad rally on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones rising by 0.63%, the S&P 500 increasing by 0.81%, and the Nasdaq gaining 1.26% [2] - Bitcoin surged nearly 8%, approaching the $70,000 mark during intraday trading [2] Market Sentiment - The day was characterized as a "reset day" for market sentiment rather than a "turning point" [3] - The VIX index saw a significant decline, indicating reduced volatility in tech stocks [4] - There was a notable "dead cat bounce" in software stocks, suggesting a temporary recovery [4] Lack of Catalysts - The market lacked a unified trading theme or catalyst, leading to a natural rebound in sentiment without a specific focus [5] - Trump's State of the Union address did not generate significant market reaction as it did not introduce new policies [6] - There were no major economic data releases or significant comments from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [7] Psychological State - The current market psychology is characterized by relief rather than greed, with investors feeling thankful that conditions are not worse [8] - The focus moving forward will be on whether the upward trend can continue, which would enhance risk appetite in the market [8]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the implications of the U.S. Supreme Court ruling on tariffs imposed by former President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the subsequent legal and economic ramifications for the U.S. economy and trade relations. Core Insights and Arguments - The Supreme Court ruled that the tariffs imposed under IEEPA were illegal, leading to Trump's response of implementing a temporary 10% tariff globally for 150 days, transitioning to a more permanent framework under Section 301, which has fewer restrictions [1][2] - The legality of previously collected tariffs remains questionable, as the new tariffs under Section 122 will take effect on February 24, raising concerns about the need for refunds of previously collected tariffs [4] - The government theoretically has no right to retain the tariffs deemed illegal, but practical issues regarding refunds exist, as companies have already passed on the costs to consumers [5][6] - The refund process is expected to be lengthy and complicated, with potential for companies to seek partial refunds through litigation or applications, rather than a blanket refund [6] - The ruling's practical impact may be limited due to existing legal frameworks and trade agreements that govern future tariffs [7] - The refund process for past tariffs is anticipated to be slow and unlikely to result in full refunds [8] - Trump's efforts to reduce tariffs to alleviate inflation may face setbacks due to the Supreme Court's ruling, complicating the economic landscape [9] - If all previously collected IEEPA tariffs were refunded, it could increase the deficit rate by approximately 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points, although achieving this is challenging [10] - Smaller countries may hesitate to breach existing trade agreements, while there may be room for renegotiation in U.S.-EU and U.S.-China relations [11] Additional Important Insights - Tariffs are becoming less significant in the current economic context, with a focus shifting towards inflation and debt pressures [12] - Market sentiment is influenced by expectations of decreasing inflation and increasing fiscal burdens, leading to a weakening of the dollar and U.S. bonds [13] - In the medium to long term, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs is expected to decrease, contributing to a gradual recovery of the global economy and greater resilience in non-U.S. assets [14] - U.S. small and mid-sized enterprises may benefit more from tax refunds, while issues facing U.S. tech stocks remain unresolved [14]

Core Insights - Global capital markets experienced a majority increase during the Spring Festival holiday, with indices in countries like South Korea, the UK, and France reaching historical highs [1] - The situation surrounding Trump's tariffs remains uncertain, and the outlook for US-Iran conflict appears increasingly pessimistic, contributing to significant rises in international gold, silver, and oil prices, with silver increasing nearly 17% [1] Market Performance Summary - **Dow Jones Index**: Decreased by 1.31% from 49,451.98 to 48,804.06 [2] - **Nasdaq Index**: Slight increase of 0.13% from 22,597.15 to 22,627.27 [2] - **S&P 500 Index**: Marginal increase of 0.07% from 6,832.76 to 6,837.75 [2] - **Hang Seng Index**: Increased by 2.30% from 26,472.19 to 27,081.93 [2] - **Hang Seng Tech Index**: Increased by 1.11% from 5,326.23 to 5,385.35 [2] - **Nikkei 225 Index**: Decreased by 0.20% from 56,941.97 to 56,825.70 [2] - **KOSPI (Korea Composite Index)**: Increased by 6.16% from 5,507.03 to 5,846.09, reaching a new high [2] - **DAX (Germany)**: Increased by 0.54% from 24,852.69 to 24,986.58 [2] - **CAC 40 (France)**: Increased by 1.90% from 8,340.56 to 8,499.01, briefly reaching a new high [2] - **FTSE 100 (UK)**: Increased by 2.71% from 10,402.44 to 10,684.74, briefly reaching a new high [2] Commodity Price Changes - **London Gold Spot**: Increased by 5.87% from 4,946.12 to 5,236.38 [2] - **London Silver Spot**: Increased by 16.81% from 76.11 to 88.91 [2] - **ICE Brent Crude Oil**: Increased by 5.48% from 67.54 to 71.24 [2] - **WTI Crude Oil**: Increased by 6.05% from 62.65 to 66.44 [2] Futures and Cryptocurrency - **A50 Futures**: Increased by 1.00% from 14,719.00 to 14,866.00 [2] - **Bitcoin**: Decreased by 6.74% from 69,129.99 to 64,473.14 [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the U.S. economy is transitioning from a "K-shaped divergence" to a "reflation" phase, indicating a shift in global liquidity expectations from easing to tightening [2][5][7] - The "K-shaped divergence" is characterized by a healthy balance sheet in the U.S. private sector, particularly among high-net-worth individuals who have significant net assets, primarily in real estate and equities [3][10] - The refinancing opportunities for the high-net-worth group support consumer resilience and liquidity in the U.S. stock market, while the new debt group faces challenges due to their reliance on cash flow and debt to acquire assets [4][12][16] Group 2 - The transition from "K-shaped divergence" to "reflation" is marked by the upward movement of the lower end of the K, where high-net-worth individuals stabilize economic and asset price expectations, benefiting the new debt group [5][17][18] - There is a self-reinforcing mechanism in inflation expectations driven by demand, which can lower real interest rates and compress credit spreads, leading to a unique situation where actual mortgage rates are at a three-year low [6][19] - The global liquidity landscape is shifting, with Bitcoin serving as a barometer for liquidity trends, and the expectation of a "rate cut + balance sheet reduction" policy combination indicates a non-typical reflation trade [7][23][24]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights significant geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, which have influenced market dynamics and asset prices, especially in precious metals and oil [2][12][21] - The US Supreme Court's ruling against the Trump administration's tariff policies has created uncertainty in trade, impacting various sectors and leading to a rebound in certain stocks [4][48] - The report notes a divergence in global asset performance, with risk assets and safe-haven assets showing strength simultaneously during the holiday period [12][48] Summary by Sections Global Asset Performance - The report discusses the impact of the US Supreme Court ruling on tariffs, which has led to a significant shift in trade policy and market sentiment [4][5] - It notes that the ruling could erase nearly three-quarters of the revenue generated from Trump's tariffs, affecting various sectors [5][9] Commodities - Precious metals have seen a rise due to geopolitical tensions, with COMEX silver increasing by 8.47% and gold by 1.66% during the holiday period [12][19] - Oil prices have also surged, with ICE Brent oil up 5.62% and NYMEX WTI up 5.57%, driven by supply risks and geopolitical factors [21][23] Bond Market - The US Treasury yield curve has shown a bear flattening trend, with short-term yields rising more significantly than long-term yields, indicating market expectations for future interest rate movements [28][30] - The report highlights that despite geopolitical tensions, the inflow of safe-haven funds into US Treasuries has been relatively restrained, suggesting that inflation and Federal Reserve policy expectations are more influential at this stage [28][30] Currency Market - The US dollar index rose by 0.91%, reflecting a shift in market sentiment towards cautious optimism amid geopolitical tensions [32][35] - The report notes that the euro has weakened against the dollar, primarily due to disappointing economic indicators from Germany [36] - The British pound has also faced downward pressure due to rising expectations for interest rate cuts [40] Equity Market - The report indicates that the South Korean index outperformed globally, driven by optimism in the AI sector, while US indices showed mixed performance due to rising bond yields and geopolitical tensions [48][49] - The report emphasizes that the global trade risk alleviation has boosted investor confidence in risk assets, contributing to the rise in various stock indices [48][49]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the price and cumulative percentage change of various commodities, stock market indices, and other important indicators during the Spring Festival holiday in the overseas market [2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Commodities - NYMEX crude oil closed at $66.31 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.57% during the holiday [2] - NYMEX natural gas closed at $2.99 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 6.41% during the holiday [2] - COMEX gold closed at $5130.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.31% during the holiday [2] - COMEX silver closed at $84.57 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 9.45% during the holiday [2] - LME copper closed at $12964.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.25% during the holiday [2] - LME zinc closed at $3382.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.20% during the holiday [2] - LME nickel closed at $17435.00 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.59% during the holiday [2] - LME aluminum closed at $3102.50 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.39% during the holiday [2] - LME tin closed at $46559.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.62% during the holiday [2] - LME lead closed at $1965.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.35% during the holiday [2] - TSI iron ore CFR China (62% iron powder) closed at $95.30 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 1.60% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybeans closed at $1153.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.67% during the holiday [2] - CBOT corn closed at $428.00 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.87% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean oil closed at $59.34 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 3.80% during the holiday [2] - CBOT soybean meal closed at $314.20 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.58% during the holiday [2] - CBOT wheat closed at $581.75 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 5.97% during the holiday [2] - CBOT rice closed at $10.52 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 4.54% during the holiday [2] - ICE 11 - sugar closed at $13.86 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.29% during the holiday [2] - ICE 2 - cotton closed at $65.55 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.13% during the holiday [2] Stock Market - The S&P 500 closed at 6909.51 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.07% during the holiday [2] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22886.07 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.51% during the holiday [2] - The UK FTSE 100 closed at 10686.89 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.30% during the holiday [2] - The French CAC40 closed at 8515.49 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 2.45% during the holiday [2] - The German DAX closed at 25260.69 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 1.39% during the holiday [2] - The Nikkei 225 closed at 56825.70 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.20% during the holiday [2] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26413.35 on February 20, with a cumulative decrease of 0.58% during the holiday [2] Other Important Indicators - The US dollar index closed at 97.74 on February 20, with a cumulative increase of 0.91% during the holiday [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones up 0.1%, S&P 500 up 0.05%, and Nasdaq down 0.22%, indicating a lack of strong upward momentum despite some positive economic signals [2] - Gold and U.S. Treasury bonds both rose, with gold reclaiming the $5000 mark and the 10-year Treasury yield falling to 4.04%, reflecting ongoing market uncertainty [2] - The Nasdaq index is approaching critical support levels, with significant resistance at 25200, 25600, and 26000, while the key support level is at 24400 [2] Group 2 - Recent non-farm payroll and CPI data were positive, but concerns about AI risks have emerged, suggesting that market volatility may be driven by factors beyond macroeconomic indicators [3] - The report titled "Global Market Notes: A Major Change is Coming" suggests that the current calm in the market is deceptive, with significant shifts expected in the near future [4] - Predictions regarding commodities such as gold, silver, and copper indicate the potential for a multi-year bull market, with specific forecasts for A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and currency movements included [4][5] Group 3 - Wall Street has identified 13 Chinese stocks as favorable, with 5 receiving overweight ratings, indicating a positive outlook for certain sectors within the Chinese market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Asian stock markets continued their strong performance, led by Japan, following Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's election victory, which boosted investor confidence and led to significant gains in the Nikkei 225 index [1][2]. Market Performance - The Nikkei 225 index surpassed the 57,000-point mark, rising by 2.64% to reach a new historical high [6]. - The Topix index also increased by 1.08%, setting a new record [2]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea rose by 1.21%, nearing its historical closing high [4][5]. - The S&P/ASX 200 index in Australia gained 0.39%, aiming for a third consecutive day of increases [4][5]. Currency and Commodity Markets - The offshore RMB strengthened, breaking the 6.91 mark against the USD for the first time since May 2023, currently reported at 6.9094 [9]. - The US dollar index stabilized around 96.97 after a significant drop, which was the largest single-day decline in two weeks [7]. - Gold prices fell by 1% to $5,016.56 per ounce, while silver dropped by 2.5% to $81.31 per ounce [10]. - WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.1% to $64.15 per barrel [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logics [1] 2. Data Source and Selection - The closing price data are from the previous Friday, and the weekly changes are the changes in the closing prices of the previous Friday compared with those of the Friday before last. Data sources include wind and Guotou Futures [1][2] 3. Market Data 3.1 Commodities - **Positive Growth**: Silver closed at 27941.00 with a weekly increase of 11.92%; crude oil at 470.80 with a 6.54% increase; gold at 1161.42 with a 4.10% increase; palm oil at 9240.00 with a 3.70% increase; PVC at 5063.00 with a 2.89% increase; copper at 103680.00 with a 2.31% increase; aluminum at 24560.00 with a 1.11% increase; methanol at 2320.00 with a 0.96% increase; and soybean meal at 2767.00 with a 0.58% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: Coking coal at 1155.50 with a - 0.13% change; iron ore at 791.50 with a - 0.44% change; rebar at 3128.00 with a - 0.45% change; glass at 1056.00 with a - 0.75% change; corn at 2271.00 with a - 1.26% change; ethylene glycol at 3913.00 with a - 2.10% change; live pigs at 11220.00 with a - 2.98% change; PTA at 5270.00 with a - 3.27% change; and polysilicon at 47140.00 with a - 7.06% change [2] 3.2 A - shares - **Positive Growth**: The SSE 50 closed at 3066.50 with a 1.13% increase; the CSI 300 at 4706.34 with a 0.08% increase; and the Hang Seng Index at 27387.11 with a 2.38% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The CSI 500 closed at 8370.52 with a - 2.56% change [2] 3.3 Overseas Stocks - **Positive Growth**: The FTSE 100 closed at 10223.54 with a 0.79% increase; the S&P 500 at 6939.03 with a 0.34% increase [2] - **Negative Growth**: The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 23461.82 with a - 0.17% change; the French CAC40 at 8126.53 with a - 0.20% change; and the Nikkei 225 at 53322.85 with a - 0.97% change [2] 3.4 Bonds - Chinese 2 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.39 with a - 0.86bp change; 10 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.82 with a - 1.81bp change; and 5 - year treasury bonds had a yield of 1.58 with a - 2.7bp change [2] 3.5 Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate closed at 1.19 with a 0.19% increase; the US dollar central parity rate was 6.97 with a - 0.36% change; and the US dollar index was 97.12 with a - 0.40% change [2] 4. Commodity Views 4.1 Macro - financial Sector 4.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Abundant liquidity in Q1, central bank's structural interest - rate cuts, upward - revised corporate profit expectations, improving fundamentals, ongoing core drivers of the spring market, and capital flowing into low - valuation sectors [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Sharp decline in precious metals, nomination of Waller for Fed Chair increasing hawkish expectations, decline in January's manufacturing PMI, insufficient economic demand, and profit - taking in the capital market [3] 4.1.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [3] - **Bullish Logics**: Central bank's large - scale reverse repurchase operations, increased capital flowing back to the bond market due to stock market uncertainties, good primary - market demand for bonds, and geopolitical risks increasing risk - aversion sentiment [3] - **Bearish Logics**: Uncertainties around the Spring Festival, supply pressure of government bonds in 2026, and the need to observe the impact of allocation forces on market demand and pricing [3] 4.2 Energy Sector 4.2.1 Crude Oil - **Strategy Views**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, impact of the US cold wave on production, OPEC+ suspending production increases until the end of Q1, and a weak US dollar trend [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Forecast of oversupply in 2026 by IEA and EIA, non - OPEC countries' continuous production expansion, potential over - production in Venezuela, high geopolitical premium in current prices, and weak terminal demand [4] 4.3 Agricultural Products Sector 4.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [4] - **Bullish Logics**: Concerns about drought in Argentina, strong short - term Brazilian basis, inventory reduction before the festival, and relatively strong spot prices [4] - **Bearish Logics**: Expected high soybean production in Brazil, high future arrivals, decline in US soybean prices, weak demand from the breeding industry, and a 70% year - on - year increase in domestic commercial inventory [4] 4.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector 4.4.1 Copper - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Potential US interest - rate cuts, supply disruptions in global copper mines, weakening copper concentrate processing fees, and long - term growth in copper consumption [5] - **Bearish Logics**: Concerns about Fed's tightening policies after Waller's nomination, weakening sentiment due to precious - metal decline, increasing global visible inventory, and profit - taking before the Spring Festival [5] 4.5 Chemical Sector 4.5.1 Soda Ash - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend [5] - **Bullish Logics**: Macro - policies to counter deflation and involution, industry's willingness to stabilize prices, and pre - festival downstream procurement before the cancellation of export tax rebates on photovoltaic glass [5] - **Bearish Logics**: New production capacity increasing supply pressure, low - price and rigid - demand procurement by downstream, high enterprise inventory, and oversupply in the photovoltaic glass industry [5] 4.6 Precious Metals Sector 4.6.1 Gold - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Long - term trend of de - dollarization, repeated geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and central banks' long - term gold - buying behavior [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Nomination of hawkish Waller for Fed Chair, increased margin requirements by exchanges, and profit - taking from previous speculative trading [6] 4.7 Black Sector 4.7.1 Coking Coal - **Strategy Views**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 6 expect a sideways trend [6] - **Bullish Logics**: Geopolitical tensions increasing energy commodity premiums, downstream winter - storage replenishment, and expected supply contraction due to pre - festival mine closures [6] - **Bearish Logics**: Lack of fundamental support for price increases, low auction transaction rates, high Mongolian coal imports, and low steel - mill iron - water production [6]