证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 海外周报 20251116 11 月非农料为美联储 12 月降息的关键变量 2025 年 11 月 16 日 ◼ 海外政治：美国联邦政府结束停摆，经济数据恢复发布料影响 12 月 FOMC 决议。美东时间 11 月 12 日，美国众议院表决通过了一项临时 拨款法案，为政府机构提供运作资金至 2026 年 1 月 30 日。随后特朗普 于白宫正式签署该法案，标志着为期 43 天的美国史上最长政府停摆正 式结束。一方面，本次政府停摆带来的紧财政与紧流动性效果料给美国 经济带来"先抑后扬"的影响。近期 CBO 的测算数据显示，为期 6 周 的政府停摆将对 25Q4 和 26Q1 美国实际 GDP 带来-1.5%和+2.2%的影响 效果（见图 18）。另一方面，随着联邦政府恢复运作，许多重要的经济 数据将重新恢复发布，其中 11 月 20 日 BLS 将发布 9 月非农就业数据； 11 月 26 日 BEA 将发布 25Q3 美国 GDP 修正值。但根据白宫新闻秘书 莱维特和白宫国家经济委员会主任哈赛特的消息，10 月非农可能只公 布就业岗位的部分数据而无法公布失业率数据，10 月 ...

Report Overview - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1] Market Data Commodities - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, PTA rose 1.70% to 4664.00, aluminum rose 1.41% to 21625.00, and other commodities also had different changes. Gold fell 0.07% to 921.26, and some commodities like palm oil, copper, etc., declined [2] A - shares - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82% to 4678.79, while the CSI 500 fell 0.04% to 7327.91 [2] Overseas Stocks - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.29% to 26241.83, while the Nasdaq Index fell 3.04% to 23004.54 [2] Bonds - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the yield of China's 2 - year treasury bond changed from 2.84 to 1.43, and the 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 0.7 bp to 1.81 [2] Foreign Exchange - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the euro - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.25% to 1.16, and the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 99.55 [2] Commodity Views Macro - financial Sector Stock Index Futures - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes long - term domestic policy support, the start of the global AI cycle, improved global capital market sentiment, and the likely easing of Sino - US trade relations. Bearish logic includes better - than - expected US employment and manufacturing, decline in China's PMI, high A - share valuation, and increased risk - aversion sentiment [4] Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes weak fundamentals supporting the bond market, the stock - bond seesaw effect, and central bank net investment. Bearish logic includes inflation repair, increased government bond issuance, and potential market sentiment disturbance [4] Energy Sector Crude Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes OPEC's suspension of production increase, short - term interruption of Russian oil, expected end - year risk - asset trading, and cost - price support. Bearish logic includes unexpected US inventory build - up, tight dollar liquidity, expected global inventory build - up, and rising production from new oil fields [5] Agricultural Products Sector Rapeseed Oil - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes unexpected decline in rapeseed oil inventory, low inventory and low operating rate of domestic oil mills, and un - resumed domestic rapeseed crushing. Bearish logic includes lack of Chinese demand for Canadian rapeseed, weakening aquaculture demand, expected increase in imports, and potential impact of improved Sino - Canadian relations [5] Non - ferrous Metals Sector Copper - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes the expected end of the US government shutdown, slow recovery of overseas copper mines, consumption boost from the "15th Five - Year Plan", and long - term demand from emerging sectors. Bearish logic includes shrinking US manufacturing PMI, rising US dollar index, increasing domestic inventory, and high copper prices suppressing traditional consumption [6] Chemical Sector Glass - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased inventory of key enterprises, low - price valuation support, stable and slightly rising spot prices, and long - term policy support. Bearish logic includes weak terminal demand, sufficient industry capacity, high - inventory dragging down prices, and consumption - season pressure [6] Precious Metals Sector Gold - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes concerns about the Fed's independence and US fiscal situation, geopolitical uncertainty, increased risk - aversion due to the US government shutdown, and high probability of December interest - rate cut. Bearish logic includes eased Sino - US trade relations, hawkish Fed remarks, strong US service data, and lack of clear bullish factors [7] Black Metals Sector Iron Ore - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 0 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. Bullish logic includes decreased global shipments, rising basis during price decline, and increased blast - furnace operating rate. Bearish logic includes continuous over - seasonal inventory build - up at ports, significant increase in arrivals, difficult de - stocking of downstream products, decreased molten iron production, and increased negative - feedback pressure on steel mills [7]

Global Asset Price Performance - Global commodity prices have declined, with major stock markets showing mixed results; the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices fell by 1.6%, 1.2%, and 3% respectively this week [2][3] - In the bond market, yields in major overseas markets mostly increased, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remaining stable compared to last week [2] - Oil prices decreased, with WTI and Brent crude oil falling by 1.9% and 2.5% respectively, while London gold prices dropped by 0.1% [2] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - The Federal Reserve is experiencing increasing divisions regarding interest rate cuts, particularly due to the government shutdown affecting key inflation data; some officials advocate for a cautious approach while others see inflation as a more pressing concern [5] - The European Central Bank announced that Bulgaria will adopt the euro on January 1, 2026, with the central bank governor gaining voting rights on the governing council [5] U.S. Economic Dynamics - The U.S. Supreme Court is questioning the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, which could lead to the potential reversal of $100 billion in tariff revenue [9] - Recent local elections indicate a resurgence for the Democratic Party, with victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York City [9] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. has declined to 50.3, close to historical lows, due to the ongoing government shutdown and its negative impacts [10] - The liquidity situation in the U.S. is tightening, with the SOFR rate spiking to 4.22% and the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction potentially exacerbating the funding shortage [10] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of stabilization with an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, although layoffs in certain sectors remain a concern [11] Other Regional Economic Dynamics - Eurozone retail sales fell by 0.1% in September, driven by weak demand for fuel and non-food items, while food and beverage sales remained stable [18] - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI held steady at 50%, indicating slight recovery, but new export orders and employment levels continue to decline [18]

Market Overview - The S&P and NASDAQ indices are experiencing strong trends and momentum, particularly in a seasonally bullish period during November and December [3] - There is a notable divergence in market internals, with 9% of the S&P hitting a 52-week low and 25% of the market within 10% of a 52-week low, indicating underlying weakness [4] Technical Indicators - The S&P has not touched the 50-day moving average in 145 trading days, marking the third longest streak since 1990 [2] - A potential test of the 50-day moving average is anticipated, with expectations that the S&P could reach around 6,400 to 6,500 before conditions are fully washed out [5] Sentiment Analysis - The put-call ratio is at year-to-date lows, suggesting a lack of interest in hedging and indicating complacency among investors [6][7] - The National Association of Active Investment Managers reported an exposure level of 100, the highest since July of the previous year, reflecting a potentially euphoric sentiment [8] Cryptocurrency Insights - Bitcoin is hovering around the psychological level of $100,000, with a previous support level at $110,000 now broken [9][10] - There is a noted relative weakness in Bitcoin compared to the NASDAQ, which raises concerns about its performance [11] Gold Market Analysis - Gold has seen a significant run, up about 51% year-to-date, but is currently extended and may be setting up for another leg lower [14] - The price of gold reached about 30% above its 200-day moving average recently, indicating a need for consolidation [13]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have systemic impacts on global asset pricing through liquidity expansion, interest rate transmission, and cross-border capital flows [1] - The report categorizes interest rate cut cycles into preventive cuts (to address economic slowdown risks) and rescue cuts (to respond to crises or recessions), highlighting the differences in market expectations and asset reactions [1] Group 2 - Equity assets respond to dollar rate cuts based on the nature of the cycle and economic fundamentals, showing a "liquidity first, earnings verification" transmission path with significant differentiation across market sectors [2] - In developed markets, U.S. stocks, particularly tech stocks, lead the rebound during preventive cut cycles, while during rescue cut cycles, markets experience phases of panic decline, liquidity recovery, and earnings recovery [3][4] - Emerging market stocks, particularly Chinese assets, show a pattern of "external catalysis, internal determination," with U.S. rate cuts alleviating depreciation pressure on the yuan and attracting foreign capital [5][6] Group 3 - Fixed income assets are core beneficiaries of dollar rate cut cycles, with performance differences arising from interest rate sensitivity, credit risk, and market liquidity [8] - U.S. Treasury yields exhibit a "short-end follows policy, long-end reflects expectations" characteristic, with short-term yields closely tracking policy rates during cut cycles [9] - Emerging market bonds benefit from U.S. monetary easing and yield spread advantages, with significant inflows into Chinese bonds during the current cycle [10] Group 4 - Commodity responses to dollar rate cuts show significant differentiation, with precious metals benefiting from liquidity and safe-haven demand, while industrial metals depend on economic cycles and supply-demand dynamics [13] - Gold is identified as a "certainty winner" during rate cut cycles, with its price driven by real interest rates, the dollar index, and safe-haven demand [14] - Energy prices are indirectly influenced by rate cuts, primarily driven by supply-demand relationships, with oil prices fluctuating based on economic expectations [15] Group 5 - The dollar's exchange rate is reshaped by rate cuts, with the dollar index's performance influenced by the nature of the cuts and relative economic strength [16] - Major developed currencies like the euro and yen are affected by their respective central bank policies, while emerging market currencies, particularly the yuan, show resilience due to domestic economic policies [18] Group 6 - Alternative assets exhibit varied performance during rate cut cycles, reflecting their hybrid equity-debt characteristics and sensitivity to liquidity [19] - REITs benefit from lower financing costs and attractive capitalization rates relative to bond yields during rate cut cycles, showing strong performance in recovery phases [20] - Cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, are highly volatile and sensitive to liquidity conditions, with significant price movements observed during periods of monetary easing [21] Group 7 - The core规律 of asset performance indicates that the type of rate cut cycle determines the leading assets, with preventive cuts favoring risk assets and rescue cuts initially benefiting safe-haven assets [22] - The current cycle in 2025 is characterized as preventive easing, with a focus on technology stocks and Chinese assets, while traditional asset performance patterns may be disrupted by global economic differentiation [23][24]

Report Summary 1. Report Purpose - The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logic [1]. 2. Market Data 2.1 Commodities - Gold closed at 999.80 with a weekly increase of 10.90%, silver at 12249.00 with a 10.53% increase, and polycrystalline silicon at 52340.00 with a 6.89% increase. - Crude oil closed at 432.60 with a 6.34% decrease, glass at 1095.00 with a 9.28% decrease, and PTA at 4402.00 with a 2.91% decrease [2]. 2.2 A - shares - The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 Index closed at 4514.23 with a 2.22% decrease, the CSI 500 Index at 7016.07 with a 5.17% decrease, and the Shanghai Composite 50 Index at 2967.77 with a 0.24% decrease [2]. 2.3 Overseas Stocks - The Nasdaq Index closed at 22679.97 with a 3.24% increase, the S&P 500 Index at 6664.01 with a 1.70% increase, and the Hang Seng Index at 25247.10 with a 3.97% decrease [2]. 2.4 Bonds - The yield of the 2 - year Chinese Treasury bond was 1.50 with an increase of 1.25 bp, the 10 - year was 1.84 with a 0.5 bp decrease, and the 5 - year was 1.60 with a 0.13 bp increase [2]. 2.5 Foreign Exchange - The US dollar index closed at 98.56 with a 0.27% decrease, the US dollar central parity rate at 7.09 with a 0.14% decrease, and the euro - US dollar exchange rate at 1.17 with a 0.24% increase [2]. 3. Commodity Views 3.1 Macro - financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, Fed rate - cut expectations, potential RMB appreciation, stable market expectations, and improved domestic M1 growth [4]. - Bearish logic: Profit - taking in the technology sector, low risk appetite before Sino - US trade resolution, limited policy stimulus, and reduced A - share trading volume [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 3 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Weak economic data, loose liquidity, and market risk aversion [4]. - Bearish logic: Potential incremental policies, unimplemented domestic rate cuts, and possible recovery of risk assets [4]. 3.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Sino - US trade talks, approaching break - even price, undervalued fundamentals, and US strategic oil purchase [5]. - Bearish logic: Saudi production increase, EU's call for end of war, rising Russian exports, high US inventory, and expected supply surplus [5]. 3.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Limited production potential, policy plans, low import data, and stable spot prices [5]. - Bearish logic: Increased Malaysian production, falling oil prices, low cost - effectiveness, and weak market sentiment [5]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Fed rate - cut expectations, low supply, seasonal demand, long - term demand growth, and policy support [6]. - Bearish logic: Trade friction risks, hedging pressure, low market attention, and weak spot trading [6]. 3.5 Chemical Sector - **Glass** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Positive sentiment during meetings, cost support, reduced inventory, and policy expectations [6]. - Bearish logic: High intermediate inventory, unclear production - cut policies, low orders, and weak real - estate data [6]. 3.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 is bullish, 0 is bearish, and 7 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Geopolitical tensions, Fed rate - cut expectations, repeated conflicts, and central bank gold purchases [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced US banking concerns, short - term profit - taking, and a stronger US dollar [7]. 3.7 Black Metals Sector - **Coking Coal** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways trend. - Bullish logic: Safety inspections, supply disruptions, high iron - water production, and positive market sentiment [7]. - Bearish logic: Reduced steel - mill profits, stable supply, weak demand, and unclear trade friction [7].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a rebound on October 13, following a significant drop the previous weekend, coinciding with President Trump's softened stance on imposing high tariffs on China [1][3] - Trump's initial threat to impose tariffs came after China's announcement of restrictions on rare earth exports, but he later expressed optimism about U.S.-China relations, stating "everything will be fine" [1][3] - Major stock indices responded positively to Trump's change in tone, with the Nasdaq index leading the gains at 2.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 630 points, or 1.4% [3] Group 2 - Analyst Adam Sarhan from 50 Park Investments noted that Trump's attitude shift sent a positive signal to the market, indicating a potential improvement in U.S.-China relations [3] - Market reactions to Trump's statements have led to frustration among professional investors, with Patrick O'Hare from Briefing commenting on the market's susceptibility to Trump's social media posts [3] - O'Hare highlighted the fragility of market pricing, suggesting that stock prices are easily influenced by threats to optimistic market outlooks [3]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping by 1.9%, the S&P 500 by 2.71%, and the Nasdaq by 3.56% [3] - The VIX (Volatility Index) surged above 20, indicating increased market fear, while the dollar index fell by 0.57%, oil prices dropped nearly 4%, and Bitcoin decreased by approximately 5.5% [3] - Gold emerged as the only asset gaining value during this sell-off, as investors shifted from "faith" to "safe haven" assets [4] Market Dynamics - The current market turmoil is linked to growing skepticism about the AI bubble, with a potential for a larger market correction as investors rush to exit positions [4] - Systematic selling pressure is evident, with UBS warning that a 1% drop in the S&P could trigger around $20 billion in programmatic selling, escalating to $280 billion with a 3% decline [4] - The S&P 500 closed at 6652, and analysts caution that a drop below 6600 could lead to forced selling from previously stabilizing hedges [4] Future Outlook - The market may face further declines, with analysts predicting a "Black Monday" following the recent downturn [4] - The recent "tweet shockwave" has raised concerns about trust in the market, potentially marking the beginning of a trust crisis [4] - Upcoming reports will address the implications of the AI bubble, the demand for gold, and the fate of a significant stock that reflects the broader Chinese capital market [6][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in the external market during the 2025 National Day holiday, including the fluctuations of various financial and commodity indices, as well as the supply - demand situation of the international and domestic agricultural and energy industries, and international and domestic macro - economic news. 3. Summary by Related Contents External Market Fluctuations during National Day - The US dollar index rose from 97.82 to 98.84, with a 1.04% increase; the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.44%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.69% [1]. - Among agricultural products, BMD Malaysian palm oil rose 4.48%, CBOT US soybeans rose 2.90%, and ICE US cotton fell 1.19% [1]. - In the energy sector, NYMEX US fuel oil fell 1.36%, NYMEX US crude oil fell 0.21%, and ICE Brent fell 0.11% [1]. - Among non - ferrous metals, COMEX gold rose 4.45%, COMEX silver rose 3.42%, and LME copper rose 3.93% [1]. International Supply - Demand Situation - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's September palm oil inventory is expected to decline by 2.5% compared to August, production is expected to decline by 3.3%, and exports are expected to increase by 7.7%. Indonesia's 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to decline by 1%, and Malaysia's is expected to decline by 1%. Global palm oil imports are expected to increase by 4.6% [2][3]. - **Soybeans**: S&P Global lowered the US soybean yield forecast. As of September 1, 2025, the US old - crop soybean inventory was 3.16 billion bushels. Brazilian soybean planting progress is faster than in previous years, and the 2025/26 production is expected to increase. Argentina's 2025/26 soybean production is expected to be 4850 tons, and corn production is expected to be 5800 tons [4][5][7]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 2002.8 tons, and exports are expected to be 700 tons. Ukraine has approved new export documents for tax - exempt rapeseed and soybean exports [13][14]. Domestic Supply - Demand Situation - On September 30, the total trading volume of domestic edible oils decreased by 71% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil mill operating rate dropped by 6.41%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 0.7 tons [16]. International Macro - news - The US ADP employment in September decreased by 32,000, the Challenger job - cuts in September were 54,064, and the ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50. The US government shutdown continued, and the release of some economic data was postponed [18][19]. - OPEC + will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The eurozone's October Sentix investor confidence index was - 5.4 [19]. Domestic Macro - news - On September 30, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was adjusted downwards (the renminbi appreciated). The central bank conducted 242.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 33.9 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank will conduct 1.1 trillion yuan of 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operations [22]. - In September, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.8%, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, down 0.3 percentage points; the composite PMI output index was 50.6%, up 0.1 percentage point [22].

Core Insights - Despite trends in the global bond market, risk assets are not showing signs of shifting towards safe havens, supported by an expanding buyer universe and liquidity overwhelming fundamentals [1][3] Group 1: Market Conditions - Major stock indices remain above key moving averages, with no clear signals for risk aversion [3] - Investor sentiment and positioning are seen as potential energy for market reversal, with many investors underweight due to recent concerns [3] - A significant amount of cash, amounting to trillions of dollars, is parked in money markets, indicating potential buyers are waiting to enter the market [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The current strategy is to continue pursuing risk until a trend change occurs, with momentum trading yielding returns [5] - The largest risk facing the market is the Federal Reserve potentially adopting a less aggressive rate-cutting path than expected [5] Group 3: Upcoming Catalysts - The market is entering a phase termed "Calendar Compression," with multiple key events expected in the coming weeks [6] - Key catalysts include the upcoming earnings season led by the banking sector and the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 29 [6] - Expectations for "consecutive rate cuts and accelerating earnings" are noted, with potential benefits for Bitcoin, gold, and long-duration assets if the U.S. government remains shut down [6] Group 4: Macro Perspective - Attention is drawn to the "four balance sheets" of banks, corporations, consumers, and governments, with a focus on the structural deterioration of Western governments' balance sheets post-2008 financial crisis and COVID-19 [7] - The current market environment exhibits characteristics of a "war economy," with a lack of political motivation for fiscal tightening and a global arms race for rearmament [7] Group 5: Interest Rate Outlook - In the context of a "war economy," the path of interest rates is expected to differ from historical patterns, with central banks likely to cut rates significantly [8] - The potential for yield curve control (YCC) measures is noted, with Japan cited as a current case study [8] - The market's term premium has not shown significant widening, contributing to a less favorable outlook for the U.S. dollar [8]