作者：招商银行研究院 纽约分行 4月美国非农就业数据超出市场预期。新增非农就业人数17.7万（市场预期13.8万），失业率4.2%（市场预期 4.2%），劳动参与率62.6%（市场预期62.5%），平均时薪同比增速3.8%（市场预期3.9%）。 表1：美国非农就业人数稳步增长 | | 就业人数权重 | | 较上月变动(万人) | | 新增就业人数(万人) | | 近三个月均值(万人) | | 较上月变化(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 2025年4月 | 2025年3月 | 2025年2月 | | | | | 新增非农就业 | 100% | 3 | -0. 8 | 17.7 | 18.5 | 10. 2 | 15. 5 | | | | 修正幅度 | | | | | -1.8 | 1.6 | | | | | 私人部门 | 85. 20% | P | -0.3 | 16.7 | 17.0 | 10. 7 | 14.8 | + | -0. 1 | | 商品 | 13. 61% | 1 | 0.2 ...

20年期美债收益率涨3.23个基点，30年期美债收益率涨3.65个基点。 周一（5月5日，非农就业报告发布之后一个交易日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率涨2.92个基点， 报4.3375%，北京时间19:37跌至4.2869%刷新日低之后反弹，01:41刷新日高至4.3687%。 三年期美债收益率涨0.57个基点，五年期美债收益率涨1.74个基点，七年期美债收益率涨2.61个基点。 两年期美债收益率涨1.24个基点，报3.8364%，20:12刷新日低至3.7868%，22:00发布美国ISM非制造业 数据时短线拉升，02:09刷新日高至3.8550%。 2/10年期美债收益率利差涨1.67个基点，报+49.903个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The offshore RMB appreciated significantly against the USD, rising over 500 points and exceeding 0.7% on May 2, 2025, closing at 7.226 [1] - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index up 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 3.08%, driven by gains in tech stocks such as Xiaomi (+6%), Alibaba (+3.8%), Tencent (+2.56%), and Kingsoft Cloud (+4%) [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet indicated that the bond market signals the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates, noting that the two-year Treasury yield was 3.717%, below the federal funds rate of 4.33% [1] Group 2 - President Trump has publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for slow rate cuts, threatening to dismiss him, while emphasizing that the economy may slow without immediate rate reductions [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield has decreased significantly since Trump's inauguration, dropping from approximately 4.63% on January 20 to around 4.15% recently, which has saved the federal government substantial interest costs [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy, while also managing the exchange rate based on market supply and demand [2]

周二（4月29日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率下跌3.66个基点，报4.1716%，日内交投于 4.2428%-4.1620%区间。 两年期美债收益率跌4.29个基点，报3.6499%，日内交投于3.7132%-3.6458%区间。 ...

与此同时，美国4月谘商会消费者信心指数降至86，创2020年5月份以来新低。 美国3月JOLTS职位空缺降至719.2万人，创2024年9月份以来新低，预期略微回落至750万人，前值756.8万人。 彭博数据显示，两年期美债收益率跌穿3.65%刷新日低，日内整体跌超4个基点。 数据发布后，美国10年期国债收益率跌至4.1736%刷新日低，日内整体跌幅扩大至超过3个基点。 ...

两年期美债收益率跌4.09个基点，报3.7561%，本周累跌4.21个基点，周一跌至3.7140%之后持续反弹， 周三美股盘后涨至3.8729%，周四和周五持续回落。 2/10年期美债收益率利差跌1.934个基点，报+49.438个基点，本周累跌2.990个基点，周一纽约中午曾达 到+66.377个基点，周三至周五低位震荡。 周五（4月25日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率下跌6.03个基点，报4.2546%，本周累跌7.22个基 点，周二亚太午盘涨至4.4341%，周三美股盘初跌至4.2472%后反弹，周四和周五持续回落并逼近周三 底部。 ...

此外，随着美国总统特朗普和财政部长贝森特先后在贸易谈判方面释放乐观信号，美元指数延续反弹 ，美债收益率涨跌不一，避险情绪回落和美元走高导致现货黄金暴跌逾100美元。 从技术上看，昨日金价向上测试周内第一阻力3392美元／盎司附近后受阻回落，至本周多空分水岭3293 美元／盎司附近展开争夺，最后重新回到分水岭上方，暂时缓解了下行的压力。但要注意到的是，虽然 金价连续两个交易日回调，但从空间上看还不是特别充分。日内走势来看，上行方面，金价上方阻力继 续关注3392美元／盎司附近，若金价有效突破该位置，阻力调整至3457美元／盎司附近。下行方面，本 周多空分水岭3293美元／盎司成为当前金价下方的第一支撑。若金价有效跌破该位置，支撑则调整至 3228美元／盎司。 新华财经北京4月24日电近两个交易日，随着特朗普"改口"推动风险资产情绪回暖，国际金价在获利了 结打压下自历史高点大幅回落。需要注意到的是，尽管金价近两日回调幅度较为明显，但从空间上看， 调整还不是特别充分。不过，阶段金价波动剧烈，短时操作难度较大。 基本面方面，美联储发布的经济状况褐皮书显示，自上次报告以来，经济活动几乎没有变化，但国际贸 易政策的不确定 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The analysis primarily focuses on the macroeconomic environment, particularly the gold and silver markets, U.S. Treasury bonds, and the U.S. stock market performance. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Silver Market Outlook** - Analysts predict a potential decline in silver prices in the coming weeks, citing failed resistance breaks in October 2024 and March 2025. A successful third breakout is anticipated but requires strong momentum, which is currently lacking. The final low point may not occur until mid-June 2025, with expectations for a significant rebound in the second half of 2025 [1][1][1]. 2. **U.S. Gold Reserves** - There is speculation that the U.S. Treasury may have been quietly accumulating gold, potentially influencing recent price changes. This possibility cannot be ruled out [3][3][3]. 3. **U.S. Treasury Market Dynamics** - The U.S. Treasury market has seen significant movements, with a notable adjustment in tariff policies by Trump linked to the 10-year Treasury yield reaching approximately 4.5%. The yield is now rising despite stock market declines, indicating ongoing economic growth concerns [5][5][5]. 4. **Liquidity Interventions** - The U.S. Treasury may increase unconventional debt buybacks as a liquidity measure, amidst declining economic growth expectations and a falling Citigroup Economic Surprise Index [7][7][7]. 5. **Foreign Investor Behavior** - Foreign investors have rapidly sold U.S. corporate bonds at the fastest pace in five years, raising concerns about long-term sustainability and the need for higher risk premiums to attract bond investors [10][10][10]. 6. **Gold Price Projections** - Analysts suggest that gold prices could reach $4,000 per ounce in the long term, with current high premiums in China indicating strong demand [13][13][13]. 7. **Market Volatility** - Historical data shows that gold's weekly volatility could exceed $1,000 per ounce if similar conditions from the 1980s recur, suggesting traders should prepare for significant price swings [16][16][16]. 8. **Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)** - The LEI has dropped to -0.7%, indicating a potential economic slowdown. This data typically correlates with the S&P 500 index, but recent divergences raise questions about government interventions to support the economy [18][18][18]. 9. **Oil Demand and Inventory Trends** - Oil demand is projected to increase by 1.4 million barrels per day in April, surpassing market expectations, while financial demand remains at a historical low. This discrepancy highlights the importance of economic expectations over immediate demand data [21][21][21]. 10. **Stock Market Performance Under Trump** - Since Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, the S&P 500 has declined by 14.0%, marking the worst performance for any president in their first 100 days since 1900 [25][25][25]. 11. **Market Reset Length** - The current bear market has reset over 242 trading days, which is below the historical median of 400 days, indicating a potentially shorter recovery period [27][27][27]. 12. **Gold to S&P 500 Ratio** - The gold to S&P 500 ratio is nearing an 11-year resistance level, suggesting a potential pullback before a significant upward movement in 2026 if it breaks above 0.70 [29][29][29]. 13. **Market Sell Pressure** - The sell pressure in the U.S. stock market remains orderly, with the volatility index (VIX) around 35, indicating no panic selling has occurred yet [34][34][34]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The analysis emphasizes the interconnectedness of various markets, including commodities, bonds, and equities, and highlights the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators and investor behavior for future investment strategies.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy, inflation, tariffs, and the implications for the stock market and government debt. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Low Probability of Inflation Due to Tariffs**: The likelihood of a second wave of inflation in the U.S. due to tariffs is low, as imported goods account for only 16% of consumer spending, and goods only represent 25% of the core CPI, with services dominating at 75% [1][17][13]. 2. **Economic Recession Concerns**: The potential for a "deep" recession is linked to private sector leverage during prosperous times, rather than tariffs. Current government debt expansion does not indicate a private sector crisis [1][31]. 3. **Trump's Focus on Bond Yields**: Trump's actions suggest a concern for U.S. Treasury yields rather than stock market performance, especially following a significant rise in bond yields [1][35]. 4. **Historical Context of Tariffs and Inflation**: Historical analysis indicates that high tariffs in the 1930s did not lead to inflation, as consumer income did not rise correspondingly, leading to a reduction in other spending [5][7]. 5. **Impact of Globalization**: The slowing of globalization since 2018 has diminished the U.S. economy's influence on the global economy, leading to a weaker dollar and underperformance of U.S. stocks compared to other markets [2][52][56]. 6. **Service Consumption Impact**: Rising commodity prices primarily affect service consumption, as consumers may cut back on services when faced with higher prices for goods [58]. 7. **Debt Dynamics**: The current trajectory of U.S. government net interest payments is increasing at a rate faster than in the 1980s, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [39][38]. 8. **Future Corporate Debt Maturities**: A significant amount of corporate debt is set to mature starting in 2025, which could impact market dynamics [42]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Consumer Spending Dynamics**: The rigid nature of consumer spending on goods means that even if tariffs increase prices, overall consumption may not rise significantly due to income constraints [13][5]. 2. **Historical Precedents of Economic Downturns**: The analysis of past economic downturns shows that significant declines in the S&P 500 often correlate with private sector leverage and government debt dynamics [29][31]. 3. **Global Economic Interdependence**: The increasing reliance of economies on domestic fiscal measures rather than global trade could lead to greater divergence among nations [60]. 4. **Comparison with Japan's Economic History**: The historical performance of Japan's stock market during its economic challenges offers insights into potential future trends for the U.S. market [63][64].

2/10年期美债收益率利差跌6.174个基点，报+58.027个基点。 两年期美债收益率涨5.04个基点，报3.8106%，08:30微跌至3.7560%刷新日低，01:09涨至3.8190%刷新 日高。 周二（4月22日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期国债收益率跌1.96个基点，报4.3910%，北京时间13:10涨至 4.4341%刷新日高，随后走低，21:34刷新日低至4.3695%。 ...