本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 【荷兰国际集团：若美联储降息，欧元兑美元2025年底有望升至1.20美元】荷兰国际集团报告显示，若 美联储实施系列降息，欧元兑美元汇率在2025年底有望升至1.20美元。 上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰 克逊霍尔全球央行年会上称，"风险变化或需调整政策"，为9月降息留门。 荷兰国际集团预测，本季度 末欧元兑美元汇率将达1.17美元，后续降息或推动欧元汇率进一步走高。 美国货币市场数据显示，当前 对美联储下月降息定价概率为84%，已完全计入12月底前两次各25个基点的降息预期。 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,898.00 | +66.00↑ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,680.00 | +38.00↑ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 569,284.00 | -20065.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 437,597.00 | -5312.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -82,183.00 | -2933.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -35,432.00 | +281.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 100.00 | +10.00↑ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 168.00 | -2.00↓ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 68,919.00 | -1175.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 20,234.00 | -240.00↓ | | ...

8月25日，在美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上就劳动力市场风险上升改变论调后，包括巴克 莱、法国巴黎银行和德意志银行在内的国际大行纷纷调整预期，现在预测美联储9月份将降息25个基 点，年内将降息两次。 "鲍威尔明确表示，美联储打算在9月份进行'微调式'降息，除非数据另有指示。"以Calvin Tse为首的法 国巴黎银行经济学家写道。 鲍威尔在上周五的讲话中强调了劳动力市场风险。他表示，劳动力市场面临的"下行风险正在上升"，基 于经济前景和风险平衡的变化，美联储货币政策立场可能需要调整。 关于关税对通胀的影响，鲍威尔表示，一种"合理的基准假设"是，关税会导致物价水平"一次性"上涨， 但这些影响需要时间才能完全体现在经济中。 市场普遍将此解读为鲍威尔为美联储9月降息敞开了大门。 在鲍威尔讲话后，巴克莱分析师在一份报告中将其对美联储的降息预期从2026年9月提前至2025年9月， 称鲍威尔的讲话引入了"宽松倾向"，提高了不降息的门槛。 该行现在预计美联储今年将进行两次幅度为25个基点的降息，分别在9月和12月。 法国巴黎银行也扭转了长期以来对美联储按兵不动的预测，现在预测9月和12月将分别降息25个基点。 与 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 【巴克莱银行学家：美联储9月降息可能性大但不确定】巴克莱银行学家在报告中称，美联储主席杰罗 姆·鲍威尔周五讲话为降息铺路，美联储9月降息可能性较大，但并非板上钉钉。 他们指出，再次维持利 率不变的大门未关，这取决于8月就业和通胀数据。意外强劲就业数据且通胀高于预期，或使美联储维 持当前利率。不过，学家强调出现这种情况"门槛很高"，仅通胀高企不足以让美联储维持利率。 伦敦 证券交易所集团数据显示，美国货币市场目前预计9月降息概率为84%。 ...

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 沪铜产业日报 2025/8/25 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 79,690.00 | +1000.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,809.00 | +12.50↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 10.00 | -10.00↓ ...

什么意思？以前大家更担心通胀，但是现在，就业的下行风险在加大。这种情况一旦持续下去，美联储 就可能要考虑降息了。 他讲得很直接，说劳动力市场看起来还算平衡，但这个平衡不是健康的，是因为劳动力供给和需求都在 放缓。换句话说，企业招人的劲头没以前大了，工人也没那么多。这种情况下，就业数据表面上稳，但 背后其实隐藏着压力。 鲍威尔的逻辑是，如果失业率和其他指标都还算稳定，美联储就可以更谨慎地考虑怎么调整政策。但别 忘了，现在的利率区间还是偏紧的，这本身就在压制经济。所以风险一旦转向，就得重新思考立场。 再说到通胀。他提到关税的影响。鲍威尔的观点是，关税会让物价有一次性上涨，但这个过程不是立刻 体现，而是慢慢渗透进经济。 他强调，这种影响是有限的，不会形成长期的高通胀趋势。也就是说，关税带来的物价压力可能会有， 但不至于让美联储长时间担心通胀失控。 大家好，今天咱们来聊聊美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上说了些什么。这个讲话，市场都盯 得很紧，因为里面可能藏着接下来降息的信号。 综合来看，现在的局面很棘手：短期内通胀风险还是在上行，但就业的风险在下行。这就让美联储陷入 两难。你要说只盯通胀，那可能继续保持紧政策； ...

铝类产业日报 2025/8/25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 20,770.00 45.00 | +140.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) -10.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 3,184.00 -11.00 | +46.00↑ -19.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 248,343.00 | +11056.00↑ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 193,845.00 | +10870.00↑ | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 13,250.00 | -800.00↓ 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 103,364.00 | +14952.00↑ | | 期货市场 | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元/吨） | 2,622.00 | +29.00↑ LME铝库存（日，吨） | 478,725.00 | -800.0 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不 对所包含内容的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担 全部责任。邮箱：news_center@staff.hexun.com 【美元指数早盘微升，9月降息概率飙升】欧洲早盘交易中，美元指数对一篮子货币微升0.1%，至 97.762，在周五急挫至近四周低点97.556后企稳。此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会 讲话，为9月降息打开政策窗口，引发降息押注激增和美元跳水。 数据显示，利率期货市场定价表明， 9月降息概率从鲍威尔讲话前的约70%飙升至84%。德意志银行分析师在研报中指出，投资者会继续聚 焦美联储官员表态，其内部政策分歧或"仍然显著存在"。 ...

金融界8月25日消息 截至收盘，港股恒生指数涨1.94%，报25829.91点，恒生科技指数涨3.14%，报 5825.09点，国企指数涨1.85%，报9248点，红筹指数涨0.99%，报4388.5点。 个股方面，中华国际大涨超145%，东风集团股份大涨超54%；蔚来-SW涨15.17%，洛阳钼业涨 10.47%，紫金矿业涨6.38%，百度集团-SW涨6.25%，贝壳-W涨6.04%，网易-S涨6.04%，金沙中国有限 公司涨5.85%，银河娱乐涨5.59%，阿里巴巴-W涨5.51%，快手-WR涨5.4%，百度集团-SWR涨5.21%， 快手-W涨5.14%，阿里巴巴-WR涨4.98%，联想集团-R涨4.36%，京东集团-SW涨4.28%，创科实业涨 4.27%，联想集团涨4.1%；欧康维视生物-B跌15.19%，西锐跌16.91%；长飞光纤光缆涨26.76%。 8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，称风险平衡似乎正在发生变化， 当前的形势意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。随着政策处于紧缩区域，这种风险平衡的转变可能意味 着需要调整政策立场。鲍威尔讲话后，市场加大对美联储9月降息的押 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine has led to price fluctuations in the crude oil market, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles for risk - avoidance [1]. - After Fed Chairman Powell's dovish speech, the probability of a September interest rate cut is high, which affects the prices of precious metals, copper, and other commodities [2][3]. - The supply and demand fundamentals and policy expectations of various commodities such as base metals, energy, and agricultural products vary, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy - **Crude Oil**: Last week, the crude oil market rose. Geopolitical risks in Russia and Ukraine have increased, and it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money option straddles and then enter medium - term short positions after volatility increases [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Affected by the US sanctions on Iran, fuel oil futures rose. Global inventories showed a downward trend, and the fundamentals were relatively bullish [21]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The overseas market has stabilized. Domestic imports and refinery outflows have increased, and the market is expected to remain volatile [23]. - **Natural Gas**: No relevant content provided. Metals - **Precious Metals**: After Powell's speech, the dollar fell, and precious metals rose. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and international gold and silver are in a volatile range [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price of copper rose. The probability of a Fed interest rate cut in September is high, and it is recommended to hold short positions at high levels flexibly [3]. - **Aluminum**: The downstream start - up rate of aluminum has increased seasonally, and the inventory is expected to remain low. The price of aluminum is testing the upper resistance of the shock range [4]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has slightly decreased, and the market is expected to be volatile in the short - term and short - allocated in the medium - term [7]. - **Lead**: The price of lead is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to hold long positions with a support level [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is recommended to enter short positions actively [9]. - **Tin**: The price of tin has recovered. It is recommended to hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price has fallen, and the market is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to control risks [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price has risen slightly, and the market is expected to remain volatile [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price is in a volatile state, and it is recommended to buy on dips [13]. - **Alumina**: The supply is in excess, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It fluctuates with the price of aluminum, and the spread with AL may narrow [5]. Building Materials - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price of steel has rebounded. The market is facing negative feedback pressure, and it is necessary to pay attention to the production restrictions in Tangshan [14]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is supported by high hot - metal production. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level [15]. - **Coke**: The price is volatile. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [16]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is rising. The supply of carbon elements is sufficient, and the price is greatly affected by policy expectations [17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is weakly volatile. The demand is good, and the price is affected by policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is weakly volatile, following the trend of manganese silicon and affected by policy expectations [19]. Chemicals - **Urea**: After the export news was released, the futures price fell. The short - term supply and demand are loose, and the market is affected by sentiment and exports [24]. - **Methanol**: The import volume has decreased slightly, and the inventory may accumulate to a historical high in the third quarter. The current situation is weak, and the future expectation is strong [25]. - **Styrene**: The futures price is in a consolidation state. The cost is weakly volatile, and the supply and demand are in a wide - balance state [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The price of propylene has been boosted by supply and demand. The supply pressure of polyethylene exists, and the demand for polypropylene is slowly recovering [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The price of PVC is expected to be weakly volatile, and the price of caustic soda is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term and limited in the long - term [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The price of PX has strengthened, driving up the prices of PTA and downstream products. The supply and demand are expected to improve [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has rebounded. The supply is increasing, and the demand is stable. The medium - term focus is on policies and peak - season demand [30]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: The supply and demand of short - fiber are stable, and it is recommended to consider long - term allocation. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity [31]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: Globally, the demand for bio - fuels may drive up soybean crushing. In China, the supply in the fourth quarter is sufficient, but there may be a gap in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to wait for an opportunity to enter long positions [35]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The US policy on bio - fuels and the Indonesian government's policy on palm oil are the main drivers of price fluctuations. It is recommended to buy on dips [36]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the bio - fuel field is expected to increase, and the domestic supply and demand are tight [37]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price of domestic soybeans is under pressure, and the price difference with imported soybeans has rebounded. It is necessary to pay attention to weather, policies, and trade [38]. - **Corn**: The price of Dalian corn may adjust upward in the short - term, but it may continue to run weakly at the bottom in the long - term [39]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of pigs is slightly stronger. The supply pressure is high in the medium - term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the game between fundamentals and policies [40]. - **Eggs**: The spot price has rebounded slightly. If the price remains weak during the peak season, there may be a deep capacity reduction, and it is recommended to buy on dips [41]. - **Cotton**: The price of US cotton is in a narrow - range shock. The domestic market is worried about new - cotton pre - sales, and it is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar supply is sufficient, and the domestic sugar sales are good. The price is expected to be volatile [43]. - **Apples**: The price is volatile. The market is focused on the new - season output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Timber**: The price is volatile. The supply is expected to remain low, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **Pulp**: The price is in a weak shock. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. It is recommended to wait and see or trade in a range [46]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The freight rate is expected to continue to decline, and the market will follow the spot price to decline [20]. - **Stock Index**: The A - share market has risen, and the external macro - liquidity is stable. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of treasury bonds is falling. The A - share market is rising, and the yield curve is expected to steepen [48].