格隆汇2月13日｜美国财经网站investinglive分析师Adam Button评美国CPI数据指出，CPI数据公布后， 市场对美联储的定价出现轻微鸽派转向，美元随之走软，标普500指数期货抹去早前跌幅。值得注意的 是，因政府停摆导致10月CPI数据缺失，11月数据收集启动晚于往常，覆盖了更多季节性假日折扣。经 济学家普遍警告，这些干扰因素可能人为压低了读数。肉类价格成为突出焦点，同比飙升8.9%，创 2022年以来最大涨幅，其中生鲜碎牛肉涨幅近15%。尽管这份低于预期的报告受到市场欢迎，并为美联 储继续降息提供支撑，但分析师强调，12月报告才能更清晰地揭示潜在通胀趋势。 ...

格隆汇2月13日｜高盛资产管理公司多行业固定收益投资主管Lindsay Rosner表示，鉴于1月CPI数据并未 如担忧那般强劲，美联储的"正常化"降息路径似乎更加清晰。这将取决于就业市场是否继续呈现改善迹 象，因为FOMC对劳动力市场疲软的敏感度很高。我们仍然预期美联储今年将降息两次，下一次降息将 在6月份进行。 ...

Group 1: Inflation Data - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year for January decreased from 2.7% to 2.4%, marking the lowest level since May 2025, and was below the market expectation of 2.5% [1][5] - The core CPI year-on-year fell from 2.6% to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, aligning with market expectations [1][7] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.2%, lower than December's 0.3% increase and below economists' expectations of 0.3% [5][8] Group 2: Core CPI Insights - The core CPI month-on-month increased by 0.3%, slightly higher than December's 0.2%, representing one of the highest monthly increases since August of the previous year [6] - The core CPI year-on-year growth of 2.5% is a decrease from December's 2.6%, indicating a continued decline in inflationary pressures [7] Group 3: Sector Contributions - In January, the housing index rose by 0.2%, contributing significantly to the overall index increase, while the food index also rose by 0.2% [10] - The energy index, however, decreased by 1.5%, with gasoline prices dropping by 3.2% and electricity prices down by 0.1%, while natural gas prices increased by 1.0% [10][11] Group 4: Economic Context - The labor market remains stable, with non-farm payrolls showing stronger-than-expected job growth and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3% [17] - Despite the easing inflation, the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates for a period due to the stable labor market [15][18] - Economists predict that inflation may see a temporary rise later in the year due to the impact of import tariffs and the depreciation of the dollar [16] Group 5: Federal Reserve Outlook - The current economic conditions provide the Federal Reserve with more room to observe before making further rate changes, as inflation is easing while core month-on-month figures show slight increases [20] - Goldman Sachs anticipates two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, with the next cut expected in June [22]

2月13日，美国1月未季调CPI年率从2.7%回落至2.4%，创2025年5月以来新低，市场预期中值2.5%。1月未季调核心CPI年率从2.6%回落至2.5%，创2021年 3月以来新低，符合市场预期。 CPI数据公布后，美元指数回落至97关口下方，美股三大期指温和反弹。现货黄金涨逾1%，现货白银涨幅扩大至近5%。两年期美债收益率跌至3.4%附 近，创去年10月以来新低。 据智通财经，美国利率期货小幅提高美联储6月放宽政策的概率至69%，高于CPI数据公布前的63%。交易员们预计美联储今年降息第三次的概率为50%。 在CPI数据公布后，2026年美联储降息幅度预期已升至61个基点，而此前仅为58个基点。 | W | | 伦敦会现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 4981.550 | 昨结 | | 4924.304 | 开营 4927.743 | | +57.246 | +1.16% | 总量(kq) 0.00 | | 现手 O | | 最高价 | 4999.940 | 持 仓 | 0 | A 물 0 | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the January CPI data in the U.S. shows a lower-than-expected inflation rate, which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [1][3] - The overall CPI year-on-year increased by 2.4%, which is below the market expectation of 2.5% and the previous value of 2.7% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 2.5% year-on-year, meeting market expectations but lower than the previous value of 2.6% [1] Group 2 - Service sector inflation has significantly increased, with the core service inflation excluding housing rising by 0.56%, the largest increase since January of the previous year [2] - Despite the rise in core service inflation, the year-on-year increase has dropped to 2.67%, the lowest level since March 2021, which is a key reason for the decline in the core CPI [2] - Following the CPI data release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts have increased, with a 30% probability of a rate cut before April and over 80% before June [3] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the CPI data indicates a slight dovish shift in market pricing regarding the Federal Reserve, leading to a weaker dollar and a recovery in the S&P 500 futures [3] - The absence of October CPI data due to government shutdowns and the delayed collection of November data may artificially lower the readings, according to economists [3] - The Federal Reserve is expected to follow a clearer path for normalization and is anticipated to cut rates twice this year, with the next cut likely in June [3]

Group 1 - The core consumer price index (CPI) in the U.S. fell from 2.7% to 2.4% in January, marking the lowest level since May 2025, while the core CPI decreased from 2.6% to 2.5%, the lowest since March 2021, aligning with market expectations [1] - Following the CPI data release, the U.S. dollar index dropped below 97, and U.S. stock index futures experienced a mild rebound, with spot gold rising over 1% and silver increasing nearly 5% [1] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to around 3.4%, the lowest since October of the previous year, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Gold and silver have experienced significant fluctuations in the current precious metals market, with gold's year-to-date increase shrinking from 25% to 15%, while silver's rise has decreased from over 50% to around 7% [4] - The divergence in performance between gold and silver is attributed to their differing investment attributes, with gold being a prominent safe-haven asset and silver having a higher industrial demand component, leading to greater price volatility during market adjustments [4][5] - The gold-silver ratio, an important indicator of the relative strength of precious metals, has risen from below 50 at the beginning of the year to 65, suggesting increased market risk aversion and a preference for gold over silver [5]

专题：美国1月CPI年率创去年5月来新低 1 月美国商品与服务价格同比涨幅低于预期，为持续困扰美国的通胀问题开始缓解带来希望。 美国劳工统计局周五公布，1 月消费者价格指数（CPI） 同比上涨2.4%，较上月回落0.3 个百分点。这 一通胀率回落至 2025 年 4 月特朗普总统宣布对美国进口商品加征高额关祱后次月的水平。 剔除食品与能源的核心 CPI同比上涨2.5%。道琼斯调查的经济学家此前对两项数据的预期均为2.5%。 环比方面，经季节性调整后，整体 CPI 上涨0.2%，核心 CPI 上涨0.3%，市场此前预期均为0.3%。 尽管住房成本是推动 CPI 上涨的主要因素，但当月仅上涨0.2%，带动同比涨幅回落至3%。 其他方面，食品价格上涨0.2%，六大食品类别中五类出现上涨。能源价格下降1.5%；汽车价格表现平 稳，新车仅涨0.1%，二手车与卡车价格下跌1.8%。 数据公布后，美股期货波动不大，美国国债收益率走低。 这一低于预期的数据提振了期货市场对美联储降息的预期。据芝加哥商品交易所（CME Group）的美联 储观察工具显示，交易员将 6 月降息的概率上调至约 83%。 该报告进一步加剧了经济形势的 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar has shown a general weakness this week, with the index experiencing significant fluctuations influenced by data-driven factors and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - Gold prices have been volatile, initially rising above $5100 per ounce due to a weaker dollar, but later dropping sharply before recovering, influenced by central bank buying and geopolitical factors [1] - Silver also experienced significant price swings, with a notable drop of over $9 in one day [1] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices exhibited a pattern of rising and then falling, initially boosted by US warnings regarding the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but later pressured by unexpected increases in EIA inventory and reduced global demand forecasts [2] - The market is reacting to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, with OPEC+ reportedly leaning towards increasing production starting in April [2] Stock Market Trends - The US stock market displayed a clear divergence, with technology stocks facing turbulence due to concerns over AI costs, while value stocks and cyclical sectors saw increased investment, pushing blue-chip indices to new highs [2] - Notably, Apple shares experienced a significant drop, resulting in a market capitalization loss exceeding $200 billion [2] Silver Market Insights - The Silver Institute indicates a structural supply shortage expected to last until 2026, with a projected supply gap of 67 million ounces and a 20% increase in investment demand [5] - JPMorgan forecasts an average silver price of $81 per ounce by 2026, with potential peaks in the fourth quarter [5] Federal Reserve Interest Rate Expectations - TD Securities has pushed back its expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from March to June, while still anticipating three cuts within the year [6] - The labor market's stability may lead the Fed to maintain interest rates for a while, despite inflation showing signs of easing [8] Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll report showed strong job growth, with 130,000 new jobs added, the largest increase since April 2025, and an unemployment rate drop to 4.3% [7] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data indicated a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, below expectations, suggesting a potential easing of inflationary pressures [7] Japanese Market Developments - Following the recent elections, the Japanese stock market has surged, with the Nikkei 225 index surpassing 58,000 points, driven by improved economic outlooks and foreign investment [12] - The new government plans to stimulate the economy through tax cuts without increasing debt, aiming for fiscal sustainability [12] Nickel Market Update - Indonesia has drastically cut the production quota for the world's largest nickel mine, reducing it from 42 million tons to 12 million tons, a 71% decrease, which has led to a spike in nickel prices [17] - This move is part of Indonesia's broader strategy to regulate mining output and support domestic processing industries [18] AI Industry Developments - The AI sector is witnessing a surge in product launches, with several companies unveiling advanced models that enhance video generation and reasoning capabilities [19] - Notable releases include ByteDance's AI video model and Alibaba's new multimodal model, indicating a competitive landscape in AI technology [20]

美股期货转涨，道琼斯指数期货涨0.06%，标普500指数期货涨0.12%，纳斯达克100指数期货涨0.14%。 CPI数据公布后，市场预计2026年美联储将降息61个基点；就在数据公布前，这一预期为58个基点。 2月13日，美国1月CPI环比增长0.2%，预估为增长0.3%，前值为增长0.3%。1月CPI同比增长2.4%，预估 为增长2.5%，前值为增长2.7%。 美国1月核心CPI环比增长0.3%，预估增长0.3%，前值增长0.2%。美国1月核心CPI同比增长2.5%，预估 增长2.5%，前值增长2.6%。 ...

每日经济新闻 每经AI快讯，2月13日，美国利率期货显示，CPI数据公布后，市场预计2026年美联储将降息61个基 点；就在数据公布前，这一预期为58个基点。 ...