Core Viewpoint - Disney's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by strong results in theme parks and streaming services, leading to an upward revision of the full-year profit forecast [1][5]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Disney reported Q2 revenue of $23.62 billion, surpassing the expected $23.05 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 7% [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 were $1.45, exceeding the forecast of $1.20, and reflecting a significant year-over-year increase of 20% [1]. - The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS forecast to a growth of 16% to $5.75, above the market expectation of $5.44, and projected operating cash flow of $17 billion, higher than the previous estimate of $15 billion [1]. Group 2: Business Segments Performance - The theme park segment showed strong performance, with revenue growth of 9% to $2.49 billion, primarily driven by increased visitors in California and Florida parks [3]. - The direct-to-consumer (DTC) streaming segment, including Disney+ and Hulu, achieved profitability for the fourth consecutive quarter, with profits reaching $336 million, significantly up from $47 million in the previous year [3]. - Disney+ added 1.4 million subscribers in the quarter, exceeding analyst expectations of a 1.25 million subscriber loss, despite a previous decline of 700,000 subscribers due to price increases [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Disney's CEO expressed confidence in the company's future, despite facing challenges such as tariff pressures from potential 100% tariffs on foreign-made films [5][7]. - The company is actively repurchasing shares, having bought back $1.8 billion worth of stock this fiscal year, and expects park revenue to grow by 6% to 8% in fiscal year 2025 [6]. - Disney aims to generate $1 billion from streaming services this year and continues to focus on enhancing the profitability of its online platforms [6].

Group 1 - Tyson Foods reported a profit exceeding market expectations due to increased chicken sales offsetting losses in the beef segment [1] - For Q2 of fiscal year 2025, Tyson's revenue was $13.07 billion, flat year-over-year and below market expectations; earnings per share reached $0.92, a 48% increase from the previous year, surpassing analysts' average forecast of $0.80 [1] - Adjusted operating profit grew nearly 27% year-over-year to $515 million, primarily driven by chicken sales growth [1] Group 2 - Tyson's beef segment reported a loss of $149 million (excluding special items), marking the sixth consecutive quarter of losses for this segment due to rising cattle costs that could not be passed on to consumers [2] - The adjusted operating profit for the chicken segment was $312 million, outperforming analyst expectations [2] - The average loss per cattle for beef packers reached $115.97, the highest since at least 2014 [2] Group 3 - The free cash flow generated in the first six months of fiscal year 2025 was lower than the same period last year [3]

► 2025Q1业绩超预期 无极品牌及通路车业务均贡献增量 01 事件概述 公司披露2024年年报及2025第一季度报告，公司2024年全年实现营业收入168.2亿元，同比+28.7%，实现归 母净利11.5亿元，同比+97.1%；2025Q1实现营业收入46.5亿元，同比+41.0%，归母净利润为5.1亿元，同比 +96.8%，位于此前业绩预告中枢偏上位置。 02 分析判断 营收端： 公司2024Q4实现营业收入46.0亿元，同比+24.3%，环比+1.1%，增长主要原因为无极品牌快速放 量；2025Q1实现营业收入46.5亿元，同比+41.0%，环比+0.9%，创历史新高，主要原因为：1）无极品牌及 通路车业务高增：摩托车产品营收27.4亿元，同比+39.4%（其中无极品牌收入8.6亿元，同比增长41.8%）； 2）通用机械业务复苏：销售收入11.26亿元，同比增长65.37%；3）摩托车发动机及全地形成产品增长等。 利润端： 公司2024Q4归母净利润为2.2亿元，同比扭亏，环比-28.0%，环比下降主要原因为资产/信用减值约 2.0亿元；2025Q1业绩同环比高速增长，主要源自无极品牌量利共振+通路车 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yili Co., Ltd. is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that Yili's performance in 2024 is expected to be impacted by a decline in revenue and net profit, but the first quarter of 2025 shows signs of improvement with better-than-expected results [7] - The company is focusing on cost advantages and optimizing product structure, leading to significant improvements in gross margin [7] - Yili's strategy emphasizes rational channel management and shareholder returns, with a notable increase in dividend payout ratio [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, Yili is projected to achieve total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.24%, and a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 19% [7] - In Q1 2025, the company expects total revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%, and a net profit of 4.87 billion yuan, down 17.7% [7] - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 is expected to improve, with increases of 1.3 and 1.88 percentage points respectively [7] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025 is adjusted to 120.9 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.43%, and for 2026, it is projected at 126.34 billion yuan, with a growth of 4.5% [7] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is revised to 11.11 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 31.48%, and for 2026, it is expected to be 12.13 billion yuan, with a growth of 9.18% [7] - The report maintains a price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) forecast of 17 for 2025, 16 for 2026, and 15 for 2027 [7]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, HLA's revenue and net profit declined due to a slower-than-expected recovery in the consumer market, with a significant drop in net profit by 26.88% year-on-year. However, the first quarter of 2025 showed unexpected growth, with a net profit of 935 million yuan, up 5.46% year-on-year [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, HLA achieved a revenue of 20.957 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.65% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.159 billion yuan, down 26.88% [2]. - The main revenue contributors, pants and T-shirts, saw significant declines in revenue and gross margin, with pants revenue at 3.766 billion yuan (down 12.14%) and T-shirts at 2.918 billion yuan (down 8.20%) [2]. - Inventory levels increased notably, with pants and T-shirts inventory rising by 22.30% and 19.03%, respectively, and shoe inventory surging by 143.28%. Total inventory at the end of 2024 reached 11.987 billion yuan, up 28.38% [2]. Store Operations - In 2024, HLA experienced a significant number of store closures, with 431 franchise stores closed compared to 78 new openings, while direct stores saw 341 new openings and 125 closures. By the end of 2024, there were 1,468 direct stores and 4,365 franchise stores [2]. - Direct stores contributed significantly to gross profit, with a gross margin of 62.85%, compared to 40.95% for franchise and other stores [2]. Sales Channels - HLA's offline revenue declined from 17.496 billion yuan in 2023 to 15.743 billion yuan in 2024, with offline sales accounting for 78.08% of total revenue, down from 84.30% [3]. - Conversely, online sales grew significantly, reaching 4.419 billion yuan in 2024, an increase of over 30%, and accounting for 21.92% of total revenue [3]. - In the first quarter of 2025, online sales reached 1.014 billion yuan, up approximately 20%, contributing to a total revenue of 6.187 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.16% year-on-year [3].

业绩超预期 4月30日涨停分析 今日共73股涨停，连板股总数10只，26股封板未遂，封板率为73%（不含ST股、退市股）。焦点股方面，机器人上游PEEK材料概念股中欣氟材7天5板，业 绩超预期的鸿博股份与渝三峡Ａ4连板，参股AI企业的东珠生态6天4板。 | 股票名称 | 板数 | 涨跌幅 | 涨停时间 | 上涨逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 宁波东力 | 6天3板 | 10.04% | 13:48 | 机器人 | | 002164 | | | | | | 全筑股份 | 2天2板 | 10.00% | 09:30 | 机器人 | | 603030 | | | | +基建 | | 中超控股 | 首板 | 10.00% | 09:30 | 机器人 | | 002471 | | | | | | 精工科技 | 首板 | 9.97% | 11:01 | 机器人+低 | | 002006 | | | | 空经济 | | 振江股份 | 首板 | 10.01% | 11:23 | 外骨骼 | | 603507 | | | | 机器人 | | 新兴装备 | 首板 | 9.99% | ...

纳斯达克上周上涨6.5%，四月份迄今已上涨1%。Callahan认为，这一反弹由多个因素推动：超预期财报 （科技、媒体和电信行业展现最高超预期）、波动性降低（VIX回落至20中段）、利率环境稳定（10年 期约4.25%）、仓位更加清晰（根据高盛数据，科技股敞口接近多年低点）以及政策前景改善（美国经 济政策不确定性指数回落至3月水平）。 但有一个残酷的事实：即使公司财报超预期也不能在资本市场上获得应有的认可。Callahan报告指出， 在当前宏观环境下，业绩超预期的公司在次日（T+1）平均仅上涨50个基点，远低于101个基点的历史 平均水平，而未达预期的公司则下跌247个基点，比下跌206个基点的历史平均水平更为严重。 美股正处于科技巨头财报飓风的风眼中，投资者面临的严峻现实是：即使业绩超预期，股价也难获应有 回报。 本周，美股将迎来一系列重量级科技巨头（包括Meta、微软、亚马逊和苹果等）的财报。知名TMT分 析师Peter Callahan在最新报告中指出，在当下复杂的宏观环境下，投资者应密切关注这些公司的前景指 引，而非仅仅关注当季业绩，因为当前的市场环境已经清晰表明：即便业绩超预期，也未必能获得预期 中 ...

| 连板数 | 晋级率 | | 2025-4-28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 #4 | 1/1=100% | 东贝集团 (机器人) | | | 2进3 | 2/5=40% | 华银电力 (业绩+电力) | | | 1讲2 | 10/57=17% | 珀莱雅 (业绩+化妆品) | | | | | 华电能源(电力) | | | | | 绿康生化(实控人变更) | | | | | 中电鑫龙 (业绩+算力+机器人) | | | | | 上海物贸(上海+统一大市场) | | | 其他涨停 | | 天沃科技 11天7板 (摘帽) | | | | | 永安药业6天4板 (化工) | | 4月28日连板股分析：高位股持续退潮 业绩超预期个股受追捧 今日共40股涨停，连板股总数13只，其中三连板及以上个股3只，上一交易日共8只连板股，连板股晋级率37.50%（不含ST股、退市股）。个股方面，全市 场超4100只个股下跌，近百股跌超9%。当前正值2024年报及2025年一季报披露高峰，已有超50家主板公司因触发"净利润为负且营收不到3亿元"的新规条 件，面临退市风险警示。"披星戴帽"风险压制 ...

点击小程序查看报告原文 金融领域，券商保险有望受益于一季度较高的市场活跃度；非金融领域，高景气行业相对稀缺，政策支持领域、有色金属、部分TMT景气领域或为结构 亮点。 结构上： 1）中上游的能源和原材料行业业绩预计普遍平淡，有色或相对较好。 2025年以来PPI增速仍持续承压，虽有一定的边际改善，但同比降 幅仍超过2%，部分领域供需矛盾仍在。有色金属则受益于金价、铜价上涨，尤其金价在去全球化加速背景下屡创新高，相关企业业绩有望较好。 2）中 游制造业绩整体平淡、局部回暖，抢出口效应或带来阶段性支撑。 1月制造业PMI低至荣枯线下后，2-3月边际改善。电网外需较好且出口目的地基本不受 关税影响，光伏、新能源车相关受关税影响但抢出口效应可能短期内对出口链有一定支撑，新能源上网电价市场化政策对相关板块也带来影响。 3）消费 行业整体需求仍有待提振，政策支持领域表现较好，如"以旧换新"相关。 2025年1-2月社零总额同比+4.0%，其中家电和音响器材同比+10.9%，通讯器材 同比+26.2%，受以旧换新政策拉动较为明显。家电、轻工等出口领域虽然受到关税影响，但同样可能伴随抢出口效应的阶段性支撑。4）TMT板块部分 ...