据新华社报道，日前，美国总统特朗普放话：俄乌50天内不签和平协议，美国将祭出500%次级关税。 特朗普（资料图） 这一幕在白宫椭圆办公室上演时，北约秘书长吕特就站在旁边。镜头扫过，吕特点头附和：任何继续跟俄罗 斯做生意的国家，都可能被"二级制裁"砸中。话音落地，印度外交部发言人贾伊斯瓦尔隔海回怼：别搞双 标，保障印度能源安全才是头等大事。 特朗普的牌面看似凶狠，其实漏洞早已摆上台面。白宫官员私下向CNN解释，总统口中的"500%"只是国会草 案上限，能否落地取决于他与共和党议员的拉锯，而特朗普本人更担心能源价格反噬美国通胀。换句话说， 雷声大、雨点未必真砸得下来。但吕特接棒放狠话，却给了新德里一个绝佳的反击切口：欧洲自己还在买俄 罗斯LNG，凭什么让印度断油？芬兰智库CREA的账本写得明白，2022年以来欧盟一直是俄气最大买家，土耳 其更拿下俄油头把交椅。数字摆在那里，双标就成了靶子。 印度这次没再委婉。贾伊斯瓦尔在记者会直接把"重启中俄印三边机制"抛上台面。这不是一句外交辞令，而 是三张底牌：一是能源账本，印度38%的原油进口来自俄罗斯，中断意味着国内油价立刻失控；二是谈判筹 码，莫迪政府刚在农业议题上对美 ...

特朗普（资料图） 中方的立场同样清晰。中国外交部发言人林剑多次强调，对话谈判是解决乌克兰危机的唯一可行出路， 反对任何非法单边制裁和"长臂管辖"。在他看来，"关税战没有赢家，胁迫施压解决不了问题"，各方应 多为政治解决积累条件。而俄罗斯推动中俄印合作的动向，某种程度上与中方的呼吁形成呼应——当单 边制裁成为某些国家的"惯用工具"，多边合作机制反而成为维护稳定的关键支点。 特朗普在白宫会见北约秘书长吕特时抛出明确条件：若俄罗斯总统普京在50天内未与乌克兰达成停火协 议，美国将对购买俄罗斯石油天然气的国家实施"二级制裁"，同时对向美国出口商品的国家加征关税。 这一表态被外界解读为精准针对俄罗斯石油最大买家中国、印度等国，试图用经济手段切断俄能源出口 命脉。 特朗普（资料图） 但印度显然没被这记"狠招"吓住。印度石油部长哈迪普·辛格·普里在新德里一场商业活动上直言："如果 俄罗斯石油供应受'二级制裁'影响，印度完全有信心通过其他来源满足需求。"他甚至用更轻松的语气 补充："就算出问题，我们也能处理。""我一点也不担心。如果发生什么事，我们会处理的，"普里 说，"印度已经实现了供应来源的多元化，我们的采购来源国已经从 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-7-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，6 月PMI为 49.7%，较上月上升 0.2 个百分点，连续三个月位于收缩 区间，6 月财新PMI 为 50.4，高于 5 月 2.1 个百分点，与 4 月持平，重回临界点以上。7月 14日，美威胁在50天内对俄原油实施二级制裁。18日工信部宣布将推动包括石化行业在内的重点 行业调结构、优供给、淘汰落后产能的稳增长方案。供需端，农膜淡季，包装膜略有好转，下游 需求整体弱势。当前LL交割品现货价7220（+40），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2509合约基差-70，升贴水比例-1.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存58.7万吨（+3.3） ...

Core Viewpoint - India's recent diplomatic maneuvers indicate a shift in its foreign policy, particularly in response to U.S. pressures regarding tariffs and sanctions on Russia, suggesting a potential realignment with China and Russia for strategic partnerships [1][3][4]. Group 1: Diplomatic Relations - Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar's visit to China emphasized the need for increased communication and cooperation between India and China, highlighting a warming relationship [1]. - Following Jaishankar's visit, the Indian government expressed interest in reviving the trilateral cooperation mechanism with China and Russia, indicating a strategic pivot [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Pressures - The U.S. is imposing tariffs that could significantly impact the Indian economy, prompting India to seek alternative partnerships to mitigate these pressures [3]. - India is considering diversifying its oil imports, planning to increase purchases from Iran, Iraq, and the UAE while maintaining some level of trade with Russia [4][6]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - India is attempting to balance its relationships with both the U.S. and Russia, leveraging its position as a major buyer of Russian oil while also responding to U.S. demands [6][9]. - The Indian government is aware of the risks of being perceived as unreliable by its partners due to its dual approach in foreign relations, particularly in the context of U.S. sanctions [9].

美国财长贝森特：如果我们对俄实施二级制裁，将敦促欧洲跟随美国的做法。 ...

Group 1 - India's Oil and Gas Minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, asserts that India will not succumb to U.S. threats regarding secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian energy products, emphasizing India's right to decide its energy procurement sources [1] - The share of Russian crude oil in India's imports has significantly increased since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, rising from approximately 2% in February 2022, while India has diversified its energy supply sources from about 27 to around 40 countries [1] - Over the past decade, India has accounted for 16% of the global increase in crude oil demand, with projections indicating that 25% of the world's new oil demand over the next 20 years will come from India, according to the International Energy Agency [1] Group 2 - Russia is a major global energy supplier, producing about 9 million barrels of oil per day, which constitutes approximately 10% of global daily production and consumption [2] - If Russian energy supplies were to exit the international market, it could lead to reduced energy consumption in other regions, potentially causing significant disruptions in heating, cooling, and transportation [2] - India's approach to energy procurement involves open import tenders, where the lowest bidder meeting the required product standards wins the contract, ensuring competitive pricing [2] Group 3 - Historically, U.S. sanctions have been viewed as a tool between diplomacy and warfare, with over 3,900 sanctions implemented during Trump's first term, marking the highest frequency of sanctions by any U.S. administration [3] - Evidence suggests that sanctions and blockades do not lead to peace, as seen in historical contexts such as the Cold War and ongoing geopolitical tensions, indicating that unreasonable sanctions often result in mutual losses and disrupt international political and economic order [3] - The recent U.S. threats of secondary sanctions are perceived as efforts to protect U.S. interests, potentially disrupting global energy market supply chains and exacerbating existing crises rather than resolving them [3]

Group 1 - Recent military cooperation between North Korea and Russia has garnered global attention, with reports suggesting North Korea may supply up to 12 million artillery shells and potentially send 30,000 soldiers to the Ukrainian battlefield [1][10] - The historical relationship between North Korea and Russia dates back to the Cold War, where both nations collaborated against external threats, and their current partnership is a strategic choice to counter Western sanctions [1][10] - Russian military actions in Ukraine have intensified, with large-scale airstrikes targeting critical infrastructure to weaken Ukraine's combat capabilities [1][2] Group 2 - Russian military operations appear to be transitioning from a defensive posture to a full-scale offensive, aided by artillery support from North Korea [2] - In the eastern Donetsk region, Russian forces have captured key strategic points, significantly impacting Ukraine's defensive lines [3] - The U.S. has responded by pledging to provide Ukraine with Patriot missile defense systems through NATO, enhancing Ukraine's defensive capabilities and signaling a warning to Russia [5] Group 3 - Some U.S. hawks are proposing high tariffs on countries like China and India for purchasing Russian oil, viewing it as indirect support for Russia's military [6] - China and India have adopted different strategies in response to U.S. pressure, with China emphasizing normal energy trade with Russia and India continuing to import cheap Russian oil while exploring new defense cooperation [6][8] - China and India are gradually aligning their positions, with discussions on supply chain stability to mitigate external economic risks, potentially reducing the impact of U.S. tariffs [8] Group 4 - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is occurring against the backdrop of NATO's eastward expansion, which Russia perceives as a direct threat to its national security [8][10] - The potential accession of Ukraine to NATO is viewed as a critical point that could exacerbate tensions, with Russia attributing the conflict to NATO's expansionist policies [8][10] - The complex interplay of Russian military advances, North Korean support, U.S. military aid, and tariff threats creates a multifaceted international situation [10]

白宫新闻秘书Leavitt宣称，美国总统特朗普威胁的二级制裁将适用于俄罗斯石油的买家。若50天内没有 达成(关于俄罗斯+乌克兰的)协议，(俄方)将面临高额关税。 ...

Group 1: Global Energy Trade and Sanctions - Russia's crude oil exports to the Asia-Pacific region increased by 17% year-on-year as of June [1] - The impact of global sanctions on Russia is diminishing, with rising market uncertainty due to the Russia-Ukraine conflict [1] - In 2024, U.S. imports from Russia are projected to be only $3.5 billion, primarily consisting of fertilizers, metals, and limited energy [2] - Russia's exports to the U.S. account for less than 0.5% of its total exports, making U.S. tariff threats less impactful [2] - Russia's trade with China and India is expected to grow, with bilateral trade projected to exceed $90 billion by mid-2025 [2][3] Group 2: Military Aid and Global Response - Trump announced increased military aid to Ukraine, including the provision of Patriot missile systems, with European countries expected to cover costs [4] - Global arms trade is expected to grow by 21% by 2025, with U.S. companies dominating the market [4] - Ukraine's air defense is under significant pressure, with Russian drone attacks increasing fivefold [4][5] - The European Union is cautious about the potential disruption of global energy supply chains and emphasizes the need for stable cooperation [3] Group 3: Political Implications and Market Reactions - Trump's "last ultimatum" is perceived as a political performance aimed at strengthening his image domestically rather than effecting real change in the Russia-Ukraine conflict [8] - The potential for unilateral sanctions to trigger unforeseen global repercussions is highlighted, with increasing skepticism from EU countries regarding Trump's policies [7][8] - Russia's financial system is moving towards de-dollarization, with a growing reliance on the yuan and ruble for cross-border transactions [5]

Group 1 - NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that Brazil, China, and India could face severe "secondary sanctions" if they continue trading with Russia, urging these countries to reassess their cooperation with Russia [1][3] - Rutte emphasized the potential serious consequences for Brazil, India, and China, suggesting they should communicate with Putin regarding the importance of peace negotiations [3] - The context of Rutte's comments includes a recent announcement by U.S. President Trump about new sanctions against Russia, which could impose a 100% secondary tariff on countries purchasing Russian exports if a peace agreement is not reached within 50 days [3] Group 2 - India has significantly increased its purchase of Russian oil, which now constitutes one-third of its total imports, potentially facing challenges if new Western sanctions are implemented [3] - The Indian government is exploring alternative supply channels in the Middle East to mitigate the impact of potential sanctions, despite these options being more expensive [3] - China's Foreign Ministry reiterated its stance that dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solutions to the Ukraine crisis, opposing unilateral sanctions and coercive measures [4]