Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the need to enhance the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate, aiming to maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level [1] Group 1 - The monetary policy committee of the People's Bank of China held its second quarter meeting for 2025 on June 23 [1] - The meeting highlighted the importance of preventing risks associated with exchange rate overshooting [1] - The focus is on maintaining the RMB exchange rate stability within a reasonable and balanced range [1]

Core Viewpoint - The expected GDP growth rate for the second quarter is around 4.8%, influenced by factors such as export fluctuations, the diminishing impact of trade-in policies on consumption, and ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector [1][2]. Economic Analysis - The economic situation in China is projected to remain relatively stable in the short term, primarily due to a backlog of export orders and the positive effects of trade-in policies on retail [2]. - Export growth is expected to maintain a high level in May and June, potentially close to April's 8% growth rate, but challenges may arise in the second half of the year [2]. - The increase in tariffs on Chinese goods by the U.S. has significantly impacted exports, particularly with a 54% tariff on small packages, which may lead to a substantial decline in exports after the initial surge [3]. - The positive effects of trade-in policies for durable goods are expected to wane, with potential negative impacts on consumer demand in the latter half of the year [3][4]. - The real estate sector is experiencing a prolonged downturn, with a 10% annual decline and a 22% drop in new housing starts, complicating efforts to stabilize domestic demand [4]. Policy Recommendations - Maintaining the stability of the RMB exchange rate is crucial for economic stability, especially given the current challenges in the real estate market and capital outflow concerns [5][6]. - Accelerating fiscal spending and exploring additional stimulus measures are necessary to stabilize the economy in the second half of the year [6]. - The stability of the real estate market is critical, requiring measures such as interest rate cuts and debt resolution for developers to prevent further economic decline [7]. - Structural reforms in the social security system are needed to enhance consumer spending, particularly by increasing pension levels for rural elderly populations [8]. - Fiscal reform is essential to improve local government finances and create independent revenue sources beyond real estate, which is vital for enhancing the business environment [9].

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surpassed the 7.20 mark, reaching a new high since December 2024, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and policy measures to prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The onshore RMB is expected to experience a rebound following the recent trends in the offshore market, with predictions of a potential increase in the exchange rate [1] - The recent decline in the US dollar index, which fell below 100, indicates a weakening of the dollar, further supporting the RMB's strength [1] Group 2 - Experts believe that the foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate remains solid, driven by domestic economic recovery, increased confidence, and effective governance mechanisms [2] - The Chinese economy's large market size, complete industrial system, and rich human resources contribute positively to the stability of the RMB [2] - The pressure for RMB depreciation may have peaked, with expectations of a dual-directional fluctuation process in the exchange rate, albeit with smaller amplitude [3] Group 3 - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market has improved, enhancing its ability to withstand external shocks, with ongoing monitoring and management of foreign exchange conditions [3] - Authorities are expected to continue strengthening foreign exchange monitoring and maintain exchange rate flexibility while enriching macro-prudential management tools for cross-border capital flows [3]

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has surpassed the 7.20 mark against the USD for the first time since November last year, indicating a significant appreciation in the currency's value [1]. Group 1: Currency Movements - The offshore RMB rose over 130 points, breaking the 7.20 threshold against the USD [1]. - The New Taiwan Dollar also experienced a significant increase, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping to 29.50, a 3.95% decline, marking the highest level since February 8, 2023 [1]. Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - According to Guo Tao, Chief Economist at Bank of China, the foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate remains solid, supported by domestic economic recovery and confidence [2]. - Positive factors such as policy shifts since late last year, risk mitigation, and technological empowerment are contributing to the stability of the RMB [2]. - China possesses significant institutional advantages, including a large market, complete industrial system, and effective governance mechanisms, which bolster its ability to withstand external shocks [2]. Group 3: Capital Market Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized its commitment to maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate, with a clear policy stance and the capability to manage market expectations [3]. - The PBOC has substantial foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion, enhancing its ability to stabilize the RMB in offshore markets [2]. Group 4: Cross-Border RMB Usage - In Q1, cross-border RMB transactions with Malaysia reached 102 billion RMB, a 27% year-on-year increase, while transactions with Cambodia grew by 45% to 5 billion RMB [4]. - The surge in cross-border RMB usage reflects deepening monetary sovereignty and industrial trust between China and its trade partners [4]. - The RMB is forming a new model of trade dominance within the RCEP framework, linking projects and finance [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, highlighting the stability of the RMB and the positive outlook for cross-border RMB transactions due to ongoing economic cooperation initiatives. Group 1: RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuations - As of May 5, the offshore RMB broke the 7.20 mark against the US dollar for the first time since November of the previous year, with an intraday increase of over 130 points [1] - The New Taiwan dollar also saw significant appreciation, with the USD/TWD exchange rate dropping below 30, marking a 3.95% decline, the highest since February 8, 2023 [3] - The FTSE China A50 index futures rose by 0.57%, while the US dollar index fell to 99.66 [5] Group 2: Stability of RMB Exchange Rate - According to Guo Tao, Chief Economist at Zhongyin Securities, the RMB exchange rate has a solid foundation for stability, supported by domestic economic recovery and various positive factors [8] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has emphasized its commitment to maintaining the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, with a robust foreign exchange reserve of $3 trillion enhancing its ability to stabilize the currency [8][9] - The PBOC has taken multiple measures to ensure exchange rate stability, including addressing market behaviors that disrupt order and preventing excessive fluctuations [13] Group 3: Cross-Border RMB Business Growth - The cross-border RMB business has seen significant growth, with transactions between China and Malaysia reaching 1,020 billion RMB in Q1, a 27% year-on-year increase, and transactions with Cambodia growing by 45% [15] - The increase in cross-border RMB usage reflects deeper monetary sovereignty and industrial trust between China and its trade partners [15][16] - The RMB is forming a new model of trade dominance within the RCEP framework, enhancing trade efficiency and local asset reserve attributes in the Asia-Pacific region [16]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the resilience of China's foreign exchange market and plans to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies to support employment and growth amid recent fluctuations in the US Treasury market [1][2]. Foreign Exchange Market - The impact of fluctuations in a single market or asset on China's foreign exchange reserves is generally limited, as the reserves are diversified and managed with safety, liquidity, and value preservation in mind [1]. - China's foreign exchange reserves remain stable at over $3.2 trillion, supported by a balanced international payment situation and a resilient foreign exchange market [2]. Monetary Policy - The PBOC plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential adjustments to reserve requirement ratios and interest rates based on domestic and international economic conditions [3]. - The central bank aims to enhance financial support for key sectors such as technology innovation, green finance, and inclusive finance, while ensuring reasonable growth in money and credit [3]. Employment and Economic Growth - The PBOC will intensify support for employment through policies like entrepreneurship guarantee loans, particularly targeting groups such as returning migrant workers and recent graduates [4]. - Financial institutions will be guided to continue lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) that are heavily reliant on foreign trade and facing temporary difficulties [4]. Support for Private Enterprises - The PBOC is committed to enhancing financial services for private enterprises, ensuring a favorable monetary environment through adequate liquidity and targeted financial support measures [5]. - The central bank will broaden financing channels for private enterprises, including expanding bond financing and improving access to foreign capital [6]. Data Insights - As of March 2025, the loan balance for privately held enterprises is approximately 45 trillion yuan, with an increase of 2.4 trillion yuan in the first three months of the year [6]. - The weighted average interest rate for new loans to privately held enterprises in March was about 3.41%, a decrease of 58 basis points compared to the same period last year [6].

邹澜表示，将根据国内外经济形势和金融市场运行情况，适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，发挥好货币 政策工具总量和结构双重功能，创设新的结构性货币政策工具，围绕稳就业、稳增长的重点领域精准发 力，做好金融支持。还在研究丰富政策工具箱，将适时推出增量政策，助力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、 稳预期。 来源： 央视新闻客户端 关注" 新华网财经 "视频号 更多财经资讯等你来看 往期推荐 三只松鼠，赴港上市！ 重要数据发布！由降转增 中国人民银行副行长邹澜4月28日在国新办新闻发布会上表示，下一阶段， 中国人民银行将继续实施好 适度宽松的货币政策 ，加力支持实体经济，同时坚持以市场供求为基础，参考一揽子货币进行调节、 有管理的浮动汇率制度，坚持市场在汇率形成中的决定性作用，增强外汇市场韧性、稳定市场预期、加 强市场管理，坚决对市场顺周期行为进行纠偏，坚决对扰乱市场秩序行为进行处置，坚决防范汇率超调 风险， 保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定 。 央行：一季度个人住房贷款增约2200亿元 中国人民银行副行长邹澜表示，今年一季度末，个人住房贷款余额38万亿，增加约2200亿元，与去年一 季度相比同比多增超过2000亿元。 发挥 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Chinese economy is expected to continue its recovery and high-quality development, which will support the stability of the RMB exchange rate despite external uncertainties [1][2] - The economic foundation of China is solid, with recent policy measures from the Central Political Bureau aimed at enhancing economic performance [1] - The balance of international payments is stable, with foreign trade enterprises diversifying markets and responding quickly to global demand [1] Group 2 - The foreign exchange market shows resilience, with more mature market participants and rational trading behaviors, leading to an increase in the use of foreign exchange derivatives for hedging [1] - The scale of foreign exchange reserves remains stable, with reserves maintaining above 3.2 trillion USD in recent months [1] - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy while managing the exchange rate based on market supply and demand [2]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy to support the real economy while maintaining a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and a basket of currencies [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The PBOC aims to enhance support for the real economy through appropriate monetary policy measures [1] - The central bank emphasizes the importance of market supply and demand in determining exchange rates [1] Group 2: Exchange Rate Management - The PBOC will reference a basket of currencies for exchange rate adjustments, ensuring a managed floating exchange rate system [1] - The central bank intends to strengthen the resilience of the foreign exchange market and stabilize market expectations [1] Group 3: Market Regulation - The PBOC will take measures to correct pro-cyclical market behaviors and address actions that disrupt market order [1] - There is a commitment to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate and maintain the stability of the RMB at a reasonable and balanced level [1]

Macro Dynamics - The China Passenger Car Association indicates that the recent tariff increases will further accelerate the domestic production of automotive chips, with the current domestic chip localization rate at approximately 20% [2] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange reports that the RMB exchange rate is fluctuating within a stable range, with the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate at 7.288 as of April 21, reflecting a 0.1% appreciation since the end of 2024 [3] - Shanghai's total import and export value with ASEAN reached 143.52 billion yuan in the first quarter, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [4] Financial Institutions - China Bank will adjust the purchase conditions for its accumulation gold products starting April 23, 2025, raising the minimum purchase amount from 750 yuan to 850 yuan [7] - The China Development Bank issued 369.1 billion yuan in infrastructure loans in the first quarter, with the proportion of infrastructure loans steadily increasing [8] - CITIC Bank's president appointment has been approved by the National Financial Regulatory Administration [9] - Shanghai Bank's chairman Jin Yu resigned due to age reasons, ceasing to hold any positions within the company [10] Market Data - On April 22, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.25%, with significant trading activity in high-position stocks, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.36% and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.82% [11] - As of April 21, the financing balance on the Shanghai Stock Exchange was 916.758 billion yuan, an increase of 3.113 billion yuan from the previous trading day [12] Company Dynamics - ZTE Corporation reported a 10.5% year-on-year decline in net profit for the first quarter, with revenue of 32.968 billion yuan, a 7.82% increase [13] - Hunan Gold announced a 104.63% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first quarter, with revenue of 13.121 billion yuan, up 67.83% [16] - Huaron Holdings corrected its 2024 annual performance forecast, indicating a potential delisting risk due to expected losses [17]