1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Global trade negotiations have made progress, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. However, short - term market sentiment in China has declined, and domestic risk has cooled [2]. - For asset classes, the stock index is expected to experience short - term volatile corrections, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended. Treasury bonds are in short - term high - level oscillations, and cautious observation is advised. In the commodity sector, black commodities are in short - term low - level volatile rebounds, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; non - ferrous metals are short - term volatile and strong, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; energy and chemicals are short - term volatile, and cautious observation is advised; precious metals are in short - term high - level oscillations, and cautious observation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas: In May, US consumer spending unexpectedly decreased by 0.1%, lower than the market - expected increase of 0.1%. Inflation rose moderately, strengthening the expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the US dollar was generally weak. Global trade negotiations progress led to an increase in US consumer confidence and a decrease in the enthusiasm for safe - haven assets [2]. - Domestic: Six departments including the central bank jointly issued a guidance on financial support for boosting and expanding consumption, and the Ministry of Commerce organized a new energy vehicle consumption season. Consumption policy stimulus has increased, which is helpful for boosting domestic risk appetite in the short term. However, short - term domestic market sentiment has declined [2][3]. - Asset operations: For stocks, short - term cautious long positions; for treasury bonds, cautious observation; for commodities, different sectors have different operations as mentioned above [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market continued to fall due to the drag of sectors such as banking, insurance, oil and gas exploration, and digital currency. Policy stimulus is beneficial in the short term, but market sentiment has declined. The market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Recently, precious metals have corrected from high levels. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran weakened the safe - haven sentiment, and weak US economic data led to a decline in gold prices. Although the PCE price index slightly exceeded expectations, the safe - haven property still provides support. In the short term, gold is expected to be volatile and weak [4]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: As the 90 - day tariff suspension deadline approaches, the White House may extend it. Fed officials' statements and Trump's possible appointment of the Fed chair have increased the rate - cut expectation, and the US dollar has declined. Fundamentally, production is high, demand may weaken, and inventory growth has slowed. Wait for the right time to short [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the aluminum price has continued to rise slightly. LME inventory increased last Friday, and the domestic aluminum inventory drawdown may have reached an inflection point [5]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It has entered the off - season, and manufacturing orders are weak. Tight scrap aluminum supply supports the price, and it is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term with limited upside [5]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and the operating rate has rebounded but is still low. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory has increased. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there are medium - term constraints [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Macro sentiment has boosted the price, and it is short - term strong and volatile. Fundamentals are loose, and opportunities after the rebound meets resistance can be awaited [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There are four short - term positive factors, and it is volatile and strong. Short - term long positions can be considered, or wait for opportunities after the rebound [7]. - **Polysilicon**: It is short - term strong and volatile due to industrial silicon production cuts. Fundamentals are loose, and short positions on rebounds are recommended [8]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has been withdrawn, and the market focus has returned to supply and demand. The OPEC+ meeting's August production decision will be crucial, and the market generally expects a continued increase of 411,000 barrels per day. The price is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [9]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are low, and asphalt prices are strong and volatile. Shipments have improved, and inventory drawdown is good. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [10]. - **PX**: Cost support is strong in the short term, but oil price declines bring uncertainties. It is expected to be strong and volatile following crude oil [10]. - **PTA**: The basis remains high, but downstream demand is expected to be low for a long time. The upward price space is limited [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the decline in oil prices, the price center has dropped, and it is expected to be volatile [10]. - **Short - fiber**: The price has followed the decline in crude oil prices. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium term [11]. - **Methanol**: There are negative factors such as increased inland arrivals and port inventory accumulation, but there is also support from inland maintenance in July. It is volatile and strong [12]. - **PP**: Production has increased slightly, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [13]. - **LLDPE**: Production has increased, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile and weak [14]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The weather in the main growing areas is favorable for crop growth, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. The USDA report in late June may have a negative impact. Policy changes before July need attention [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of soybean meal is loose, and the market sentiment is weak. The supply pressure is difficult to relieve in the 09 - contract cycle. Rapeseed meal is dominated by soybean meal [15]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: For rapeseed oil, import news eases supply concerns, but high port inventory increases risks. For soybean oil, supply is loose, and the inventory is seasonally recovering but still at a low level [16]. - **Palm Oil**: The positive factors are exhausted, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to increased domestic inventory [17][18]. - **Corn**: The spot market is strong, but the futures market is affected by rumors. After the seasonal wheat substitution, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. - **Pigs**: The supply is expected to increase in July, and demand is weak in the off - season. However, the flexibility of slaughter weight increases price resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [18].

商 品 研 究 研 究 所 晨 会 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 观 点 精 萃 投资咨询证号：Z0000671 电话：021-68756925 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-68751490 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03091165 投资咨询证号：Z0019876 联系电话：021-58731316 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F03089928 投资咨询证号：Z0019740 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：wangyil@qh168.com.cn 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号：Z0016121 电话：021-68757092 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 贾利军 从业资格证号：F0256916 宏观金融：美联储维持利率不变，全球风险偏好整体降温 明道雨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Stocks**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious long - position [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term high - level oscillation, cautious observation [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term low - level oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term oscillation, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term volatility intensifies, cautious long - position [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level strong - biased oscillation, cautious long - position [3] 2. Core Views - The global risk preference has cooled overall due to the weakening US economic data and the intensifying geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israel's attack on Iran. In China, the economic growth is generally stable, but the short - term Middle East geopolitical situation has affected market sentiment [3][4] - Different asset classes have different short - term trends and investment suggestions based on the current economic and geopolitical situation [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overseas**: US May retail sales were weaker than expected, but consumer spending was supported by steady wage growth. The weakening economic data and geopolitical tensions made investors nervous, the US dollar rebounded after a decline, and the global risk preference cooled [3] - **Domestic**: China's May consumption grew strongly, but investment and industrial production slowed down. The overall economic growth was stable, which helped boost domestic risk preference in the short term, but the Middle East situation dampened it [3][4] - **Assets**: Stocks oscillate in the short term, cautiously long - position; treasury bonds oscillate at a high level, observe cautiously; black metals oscillate at a low level, observe cautiously; non - ferrous metals oscillate, observe cautiously; energy and chemicals have intensified volatility, cautiously long - position; precious metals oscillate strongly at a high level, cautiously long - position [3] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, game, film and television, and metal new materials, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The economic fundamentals are stable, but the Middle East situation impacts market sentiment. The market focuses on Middle East risks, US trade policies, and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long - position [4] Precious Metals - The gold market oscillated narrowly, and silver rebounded. The Middle East situation is the main influencing factor. If the two sides return to the negotiation table, the gold risk - premium may decline rapidly, and silver will remain in consolidation [5] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures markets were stable, but demand may weaken due to industrial and real - estate pressure. Supply may not decline significantly in the short term. The market will oscillate at the bottom [6][7] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices declined slightly. Iron - water production may remain high, supply is expected to be high in the second quarter, and the rising coking coal price will suppress the iron - ore price. Short - term interval oscillation [7] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices rebounded slightly. The demand for ferroalloys declined. The market rumors were false. Short - term interval oscillation [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Global economic slowdown and high tariffs do not support a sharp rise. Pay attention to US trade policies and tariff decisions [9] - **Aluminum**: The warehouse receipts increased, and the inventory decline slowed down. The demand - boosting policy has uncertainties, and the demand may weaken [9] - **Aluminum Alloy**: In the off - season, the orders are weak, but the tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. Short - term oscillation, limited upside [9] - **Tin**: The supply is tight, the processing fee is low, and the production resumption may be delayed. In the off - season, the demand is weak, and the inventory increased slightly. Short - term oscillation, upside pressure [10][11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trump's remarks increased concerns about supply disruption in the Middle East, although the export facilities are currently unaffected [12] - **Asphalt**: The price followed the oil price to test the previous high. The shipment was stable, the profit recovered, and the inventory decline stagnated. Follow the oil price at a high level [12] - **PX**: The price followed the oil price to rise. The maintenance is concentrated in June - July, and the PTA operation rate increased. It will oscillate strongly [12] - **PTA**: The basis increased, the inventory decreased, and the downstream inventory transfer improved. It will oscillate strongly, pay attention to bottle - chip production cuts [13] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is stable, the downstream inventory decline is limited, and the synthetic - gas production resumed. It will oscillate at the bottom [13] - **Short - fiber**: It oscillated strongly following the polyester sector. The terminal orders recovered slowly, and the inventory accumulated. Follow the oil price [14] - **Methanol**: The domestic price declined slightly, the port basis strengthened. The supply may be affected by the Middle East situation, and the supply is expected to increase. Short - term strong [16] - **PP**: The price adjusted slightly. The production increased, the demand was weak, and the cost supported the price. It may face a callback after a short - term rise [17] - **LLDPE**: The price increased, the import window opened, and the inventory decreased slightly. The production restarted, and the demand was weak. Pay attention to the oil price [18] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The overnight CBOT soybean oil futures fell, triggering profit - taking pressure. The US Senate proposed a $1 - billion tax bill [20] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean market drove the soybean meal futures up, but the domestic supply and demand will be looser. The rapeseed meal demand increase was insufficient [20] - **Oils**: The tension in the Middle East made the palm oil more attractive as a biodiesel raw material, and the palm oil exports increased [20] - **Corn**: The arrival of corn in Shandong was low, and the northeast corn provided support. Import auctions and wheat substitution may cause corn to consolidate at a high level [21] - **Hogs**: The weight reduction of large - scale farms was limited, the spot market was stable, and the demand is expected to improve seasonally [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data eases market concerns about an impending economic slowdown, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields, and an increase in global risk appetite. The improvement in China's May PMI data and positive signals from the Sino-US leaders' call boost domestic risk appetite in the short term [3]. - For different asset classes, the report provides short - term outlooks: stocks may be short - term volatile with a suggestion of cautious long positions; bonds may be at a short - term high with a cautious wait - and - see approach; different commodity sectors have their own short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Overseas**: In May, the US non - farm payroll employment increased by 139,000, higher than the expected 130,000. Employment growth continued to slow under the influence of trade policy uncertainties, and the unemployment rate remained at a low of 4.2% for the third consecutive month. The better - than - expected data led to a rebound in the US dollar index and US Treasury yields and an increase in global risk appetite [3]. - **Domestic**: China's May PMI data improved, indicating continued expansion of overall economic output and accelerated economic growth, which helps boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. The Sino - US leaders' call released positive signals and also boosted domestic risk appetite [3]. - **Asset Outlook**: Stocks may be short - term volatile, with a suggestion of cautious long positions; bonds may be at a short - term high, with a cautious wait - and - see approach; different commodity sectors have their own short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [3]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as metals, communication services, and trade, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. The improvement in China's May PMI data and positive signals from the Sino - US leaders' call boost domestic risk appetite in the short term. The short - term trading logic focuses on US trade policy changes and trade negotiation progress. It is recommended to be short - term cautious and go long [4]. Precious Metals - Last week, the precious metals market showed a significant divergence, with silver strongly breaking through and driving the gold - silver ratio to quickly decline. Employment data concerns increased market volatility. There are still uncertainties in trade negotiations. Silver has a technical breakthrough and catch - up demand, and the gold - silver ratio may be repaired. Gold is expected to remain in a high - level shock, and a callback - buying strategy is recommended [5]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Canadian wildfires and decent US employment data led to a slight increase in oil prices. The impact of OPEC+ production increase remains at the long - term structural level, and oil prices are expected to remain stable in the near term and may weaken in the long term [6][7]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices are consolidating, and the asphalt market is in a narrow - range shock. Demand has recovered to a limited extent, and the inventory de - stocking has stagnated. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil in the short term [7]. - **PX**: PTA's operating rate has slightly increased, and PX demand will rise later. The supply will be tight in the future, but it will maintain a short - term shock pattern [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to continue to increase in June. The downstream demand is in a negative feedback state, and it may shift to slight inventory accumulation. It is recommended to be bearish on high prices [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: After the speculation on ethane imports was falsified, and with the coal price just showing signs of bottoming out, the cost - pricing logic still exerts pressure on the market. Supply will increase significantly, and it may maintain a shock pattern in the near term [8]. - **Short Fibre**: It generally maintains a weak shock pattern. Terminal orders have recovered slower than expected, and downstream operating rates are expected to decrease. It will continue to operate in a shock in the short term [8]. - **Methanol**: Inventories in the inland and ports are rising. The port inventory accumulation process may slow down. Supply is loose, and demand is fair. It is expected to shock and repair in the short term, and prices may decline in the medium - to - long term [8]. - **PP**: Production is increasing, downstream operating rates are slightly falling, and inventories are rising significantly. The fundamentals are deteriorating, and prices are expected to be under pressure [8]. - **LLDPE**: Plants are restarting, downstream operating rates are slightly falling, and inventories are rising. The price is expected to move down due to the production - expansion expectation [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The Sino - US leaders' call restarts the negotiation, but the possibility of continued overly optimistic results is low, and attention may return to high - tariff risks. The copper ore supply is relatively tight, production is high, and demand may decline marginally. It will be in a short - term shock [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: Supply is rigid, production is high, and imports have increased significantly. Demand may decline marginally, but there is still an effect of export rush. There is no major substantial negative news in the short term [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of domestic tin ore is tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State may be delayed. Demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and inventories have decreased. Tin prices may continue to repair in the short term, but the upside is limited [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The "reciprocal tariff" policy of the United States continues to loosen, leading to a significant increase in global risk appetite. The short - term stagflation risk of the US economy is increasing, with the US dollar index falling. In China, market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. - For asset investment, the stock index is expected to rebound in the short - term with cautious long positions; treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level with cautious long positions; the black metal sector is weakly oscillating with cautious observation; the non - ferrous metal sector is oscillating and rebounding with cautious long positions; the energy and chemical sector is oscillating with cautious observation; precious metals are rising with cautious long positions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in April was 50.8, lower than expected, and the one - year inflation rate expectation reached a 40 - year high, increasing the short - term stagflation risk. The US has exempted some electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs", and the global risk appetite has increased [2]. - Domestic: The loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic market - stabilizing measures and potential new policies support the domestic market risk appetite [2]. 3.2 Stock Index - Supported by sectors such as semiconductors, non - metallic materials, and precious metals, the domestic stock market continued to rebound. With the loosening of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy and domestic support measures, short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3]. 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold: Due to the US government's credit damage, the selling of US dollar assets, and geopolitical uncertainties, gold remains strong. A significant correction may present a long - term allocation opportunity [4]. - Silver: Affected by trade frictions, it fell 3.81% last week. It may follow gold and show a weakly oscillating and upward trend [4]. 3.4 Black Metal - Steel: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be weak last week, but the decline slowed down over the weekend. The apparent demand for some steel products decreased, and the supply of some varieties may still increase. Short - term observation is recommended [5][7]. - Iron Ore: The spot and futures prices rebounded slightly. Iron water production may continue to increase, but there is a downward expectation in the medium - term. The short - term price will oscillate within a range [7]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The spot prices remained flat. The demand for ferroalloys is fair, but the supply is decreasing. Short - term price oscillation within a range is expected [8]. 3.5 Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: After tariff fluctuations, the oil price rebounded slightly, but the market is still worried about demand decline. The Iran sanctions risk may lead to short - term price fluctuations, and long - term oversupply is expected [9]. - Asphalt: It oscillates weakly following the oil price. The inventory has decreased, but the actual demand is weak, and the price fluctuation will remain high [9]. - PX: The external price has dropped significantly. It will continue to be weak in the short - term, but there may be a slight rebound later [10][11]. - PTA: Terminal orders are affected by tariffs, and the short - term rebound space is limited, remaining in a weak state [11]. - Ethylene Glycol: The short - term demand is poor, and the de - stocking time is postponed. It will oscillate at a low level [11]. - Short - fiber: The price has been corrected significantly, and it will continue to oscillate weakly, but there is some support [11]. - Methanol: The inventory is decreasing, but the supply is expected to increase. The 05 contract will oscillate and repair, and the 09 contract is bearish [12]. - PP: The downstream start - up has decreased slightly, but the supply reduction may relieve the pressure, and the price will oscillate and repair [12]. - LLDPE: The downstream demand has declined, and the 09 contract's center of gravity will move down [12]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metal - Copper: The US may not increase tariffs further. Looking for low points for a rebound is a more prudent strategy in the short - term [13]. - Aluminum: The inventory has decreased, and it can be considered for a rebound after a short - term correction [13]. - Tin: The macro situation is expected to improve market sentiment. The smelter start - up has declined, and the inventory has decreased. The tin price will rebound in the short - term [14]. 3.7 Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The supply - demand expectation has tightened, and the price may rebound if there are weather risks during the spring sowing [15]. - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply has decreased, and the inventory has shrunk. The price will fluctuate at a high level, and the downward space is limited [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: It has entered the consumption season, and the inventory is high. The supply risk has decreased, and there is room for the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal to rebound [15]. - Soybean Oil: The demand is in the off - season, and the price is supported by the risk premium of imported soybeans. The basis may weaken in the second quarter [16]. - Palm Oil: The domestic inventory is low, but the global production is increasing, and the price is under pressure [16][17]. - Rapeseed Oil: The domestic inventory is high, and the price is under pressure. The cost support is stable but lacks driving force [17].