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蛋白数据日报-20250528
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 05:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Affected by the rumor of the result of the rapeseed anti - dumping investigation on Saturday, grains showed strong performance. However, the rumor is unconfirmed and policy variables are large, so caution is advised when going long. - Domestic soybean meal is expected to gradually accumulate inventory, with spot prices and basis continuing to decline. - In the northern part of the US soybean - producing areas, there will be less rainfall in the next two weeks, but no abnormally high temperatures, and the expected impact is limited. - Brazilian premiums have stabilized recently. - In the short term, the bullish driving force is limited. The near - month futures and basis are still under supply pressure. The 109 contract is expected to maintain range - bound trading. - Continuously monitor policy and weather changes. Subsequently, consider long opportunities for M11 and 00 contracts [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Price and Spread Data - The report presents the basis data of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions such as Dalian, Tianjin, and Zhangjiagang, as well as the spread data between M9 - 1, M9 - RM9, etc., and the spot and futures spreads between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong [3][4]. International Data - It shows the US dollar - RMB exchange rate, the CNF premium of imported soybeans, and the trend of the CNF premium of soybeans in the United States and Brazil [4]. Inventory Data - As of last week, soybean inventory decreased slightly and is at a high level compared to the same period in previous years. Soybean meal inventory increased to 20.69 tons and is still low. Feed companies' soybean meal inventory days increased but are still at a low level [5]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: From May to July in China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current purchase progress for June is 92.7%, July is 74.4%, and August is 29.7%. US soybean planting progress is fast, and there is a sign of dry weather in the next two weeks in some areas. The flood in the Argentine soybean - producing area is expected to have limited impact. - **Demand**: Before September, supply is expected to increase steadily. Poultry inventory remains high. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has significantly improved, leading to increased downstream transactions and better提货 [4][5].
油脂油料早报-20250509
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-09 06:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents overnight market information on soybeans and rapeseeds, including export sales, shipments, inventory, and export data from major producing countries [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Overnight Market Information on Soybeans - For the week ending May 1, US current - market - year soybean export sales net increased 37.67 million tons, down 12% from the previous week and up 1% from the four - week average, with a market forecast of 20.0 - 50.0 million tons; next - market - year export sales net increased 0.98 million tons, with a forecast of 0 - 15.0 million tons [1] - US soybean export shipments were 25.83 million tons, down 56% from the previous week and 59% from the four - week average, with 6.81 million tons shipped to the Chinese mainland [1] - US current - market - year new soybean sales were 39.07 million tons, and next - market - year new sales were 0.98 million tons [1] - On May 8, private exporters reported selling 22.5 million tons of soybeans to Pakistan for the 2025/2026 market year [1] - Brazil exported 15,271,913.82 tons of soybeans in April, with a daily average export of 763,595.69 tons, up 14% from the daily average in April of the previous year (667,629.19 tons) [1] Information on Rapeseeds - As of March 31, 2025, Canada's total rapeseed inventory decreased 38.7% year - on - year to 5.9 billion tons, with farm inventory down 42.8% to 4.6 billion tons and commercial inventory down 18.2% to 1.3 billion tons [1] - Rapeseed exports increased 73.6% to 6.8 billion tons, the highest since 2021; domestic use (mainly for crushing) reached a record 8.1 billion tons (+3.1%) [1] Spot Prices - Spot prices of soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from April 29 to May 8 are provided [1]