美联储10月政策会议纪要显示，美联储决策层在上月降息时存在严重分歧。尽管政策制定者警告降息可 能影响抑制通胀的努力——过去四年半来美国通胀率持续高于2%的控制目标，但最终仍决定下调利 率。 这份纪要反映出官员们在数据缺失背景下努力寻求共识：既要权衡通胀升温与就业市场疲软的双重风 险，又警示若市场对人工智能投资进行"急剧重估"可能导致"股市无序下跌"。（新华财经） 会议纪要显示，决策者们在是否支持当次会议的降息决定，以及12月是否应降息的问题上存在分歧。多 名与会者倾向于在十月份降息，但其中一些人表示，他们本也可以支持维持利率不变。 多位与会者表示，在他们目前的展望下，今年剩余时间保持利率不变是合适的。多数与会者指出，进一 步降息可能会增加高通胀固化的风险，或被误解为美联储对实现2%通胀目标缺乏承诺。 ...

Job seekers speak with recruiters during the SacJobs Career job fair in Sacramento, California, US, on Thursday, Nov. 13, 2025.Coming a week after the government impasse ended, the data also is expected to show the unemployment rate at 4.3% while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% for the month and 3.7% from a year ago, all numbers unchanged from August, according to Dow Jones consensus estimates."My sense is that the both the September report and the revisions for July and August will suggest a little ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve appears to be divided in its conclusions despite having access to the same data, leading to confusion among analysts [1][2] - The term "likely not appropriate" was frequently used regarding a potential rate cut, indicating a cautious stance from the Fed [2] - Inflation has been persistent and largely unchanged over the past year, yet the Fed is currently focusing on it [2] Group 2 - There was a misconception in the media regarding a spike in interest rates, which did not occur as reported [3][4] - Fed fund futures indicate a decreasing probability of a rate cut, with a brief dip below 30% [3] - The 10-year yield has been fluctuating within a narrow range of 4.07% to 4.17% since the last rate cut in October, suggesting a period of stability [5]

The October employment report has been canceled and the November report will come out late, the government said, depriving the Federal Reserve of critical information before it meets in early December to decide whether to cut interest rates again. ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成个人投资建议，也未考虑到个别用户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。用户应考虑本文中的任何 意见、观点或结论是否符合其特定状况。据此投资，责任自负。 风险提示及免责条款 美国总统特朗普加倍批评美联储主席鲍威尔没有更快降息，他表示："老实说，我很想炒了他。"特朗普 在华盛顿一个由沙特阿拉伯支持的投资论坛上发表讲话，敦促他的财政部长贝森特加快寻找鲍威尔的继 任者。 "你得在他身上下功夫，斯科特。斯科特唯一搞砸的就是美联储，"特朗普在谈到当时正在华盛 顿肯尼迪中心参加活动的贝森特时说。 "利率太高了，斯科特，如果你不尽快解决这个问题，我就炒了 你。" 正在牵头物色美联储新主席人选的贝森特近日称，特朗普将在感恩节后与三位最终候选人会面， 新的人选可能在圣诞节前宣布。 ...

Recruiters speak to job seekers at the Appalachian State University internship and job fair in Boone, North Carolina, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025.The Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday it will not release a full U.S. jobs report for the month of October, following the longest government shutdown in the history of the country. Instead, "Establishment survey data from the Current Employment Statistics survey for October 2025 will be published with the November 2025 data," the BLS said. The BLS also ...

Gold prices on Tuesday plunged to their lowest levels in more than a week on diminishing hopes for an interest-rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting.Gold futures dropped 0.3% to $4,062.20 per ounce as of about 12:30 p.m. ET — the fourth straight day of declines. The precious metal hit its lowest price since Nov. 10 earlier in the session.The drop comes as traders are pricing in just 52.6% odds of a quarter-point cut next month – down from 93.7% odds this time last month, according to CME FedWatch.  3 Gol ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 closed down 2.88%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index dropped 147.13 points from last week, a 9.8% decline, driving down the futures price. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Shipowners are more active in price - holding and adjusting capacity through blank sailings, but the implementation needs to be observed. The Red Sea resumption of navigation is postponed due to the unstable Middle - East situation. The German economy's better - than - expected performance boosts market confidence in the eurozone. The current freight rate market is greatly affected by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures盘面 - EC main contract closing price was 1678.100, down 49.8; EC sub - main contract closing price was 1179.6, down 9.7. The spread between EC2602 - EC2604 was 498.50, down 39.80; the spread between EC2602 - EC2606 was 293.10, down 29.00. The EC contract basis was - 320.43, up 47.90. The EC main contract position was 38860 hands, down 20 [1]. 3.2 Spot Price - SCFIS (European line) (weekly) was 1357.67, down 147.13; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly) was 1238.42, down 91.29. SCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1451.38, down 43.72; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs) was 1227.97, unchanged. CCFI (composite index) (weekly) was 1094.03, up 35.86; CCFI (European line) (weekly) was 1403.64, up 36.79. The Baltic Dry Index (daily) was 2125.00, up 28.00; the Panamax Freight Index (daily) was 1897.00, down 10.00. The average charter price of Panamax ships was 17564.00, unchanged; the average charter price of Capesize ships was 27460.00, down 310.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The European Commission said the eurozone economy may expand faster than expected this year and reach or exceed potential growth in 2026 and 2027, but debt and deficits will rise due to defense spending. The predicted GDP growth for the eurozone this year is 1.3%, higher than the 0.9% forecast in April. The Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson said the downside risk to employment has increased, and the upside risk to inflation may have slightly decreased recently. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that the Fed should cut interest rates again at the December meeting. China has made stern representations to Japan over Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae's wrong remarks on Taiwan [1]. 3.4 Key Points to Follow - November 19th, 15:00: UK October CPI monthly rate; November 19th, 15:00: UK October retail price index monthly rate; November 19th, 18:00: Eurozone October CPI annual rate final value; November 19th, 21:30: US August trade balance (in billions of dollars) [1].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs Asset Management released its 2026 investment outlook report, indicating a divergence in central bank policies across major markets [1] Group 1: U.S. Market - The labor market is weak, leading Goldman Sachs to predict that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates twice in 2026 [1] Group 2: European Market - The European Central Bank is likely to maintain interest rates at current levels for the foreseeable future [1] - The Bank of England may resume rate cuts in December due to improving inflation, a relatively weak labor market, and potential tax increases [1] Group 3: Japanese Market - High inflation and strong growth in Japan may prompt the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates [1] - Recent political changes and a shift towards expansionary fiscal policy further reinforce this direction [1]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,079.90 per ounce on Thursday, down 0.1% from Wednesday’s close of $4,082.80. Gold has not opened above $4,100 since Nov. 14. The Federal Reserve committee that sets interest rates released minutes from its October meeting on Wednesday. The notes confirm policymakers had “strongly differing views” on the appropriate rate action for the next meeting in December. “Many” committee members said their economic outlooks would likely support no rate change in December. Learn mo ...