Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's September meeting resulted in a 25 basis point reduction in interest rates, lowering the key Fed Funds rate to a range of 4.00-4.25% [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points [1] - The new Fed Funds rate is now set between 4.00% and 4.25% [1]

Core Insights - The private sector experienced a loss of 32,000 jobs in September, significantly below the expected gain of 45,000 jobs, following a downward revision of August's figures from 54,000 to a loss of 3,000 jobs [1][3] - The overall labor market is showing signs of weakness, particularly with small companies losing 40,000 jobs while only large corporations gained 33,000 jobs [2][3] Private-Sector Jobs Data Breakdown - The ratio of goods-producing to services jobs remained stable, with goods jobs down by 3,000 and services jobs down by 28,000 [2] - Education and Healthcare sectors led job creation with 33,000 new jobs, while sectors like Trade/Transportation/Utilities, Professional/Business Services, and Leisure & Hospitality saw losses of 7,000, 13,000, and 19,000 jobs respectively [4] Income Change Metrics - Job Stayers saw a 4.5% increase in income compared to a year ago, while Job Changers experienced a 6.6% increase, indicating a narrowing gap in income growth [5] Market Reaction - Pre-market futures showed a negative response to the job numbers, with the Dow down 160 points, S&P 500 down 30 points, and Nasdaq down 130 points, suggesting expectations for potential interest rate cuts [6] Government Shutdown Impact - The federal government shutdown is likely to hinder further job reports from the U.S. Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, limiting insights into the labor market's current state [7]

Core Insights - Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported a decline of 32,000 jobs in the private sector for September, significantly below the expected increase of 45,000 jobs [1] - The August figures were revised down from an initial gain of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000 jobs [1] - The overall labor market appears to be weakening, with the federal government shutdown likely exacerbating the situation [3][7] Private-Sector Job Breakdown - The job losses were primarily in small companies (under 50 employees) which lost 40,000 jobs, while medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) shed 20,000 jobs [2] - Large corporations (500+ employees) were the only segment to gain jobs, adding 33,000 positions [2] - By industry, Education & Healthcare added 33,000 jobs, while sectors like Trade/Transportation/Utilities, Professional/Business Services, and Leisure & Hospitality experienced losses of 7,000, 13,000, and 19,000 jobs respectively [4] Income Change Metrics - Job Stayers saw a 4.5% increase in income compared to a year ago, while Job Changers experienced a 6.6% increase, indicating a narrowing gap in income growth [5] Market Reaction - Pre-market futures showed a negative reaction to the job numbers, with the Dow down 160 points, S&P 500 down 30 points, and Nasdaq down 130 points [6] - Bond yields, particularly for the 10-year and 2-year, also declined, suggesting expectations for potential interest rate cuts [6] Future Job Data Expectations - Due to the government shutdown, further job data from the U.S. Department of Labor and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is unlikely to be released this week, limiting insights into the labor market [7]

If congressional leaders can't agree to pass a short-term funding measure by 12.01 a.m. Eastern time on Wednesday, the government will shut down. That would delay the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly jobs report, which could have a knock-on effect on markets, seeing as investors are still uncertain about whether the Federal Reserve will carry on cutting interest rates. CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 30, 2025: Dow Hits New Record Last Updated: Updated 11 hours ago Stock Futures Slip ...

周一，美国主要股指收盘上涨，标准普尔500指数上涨0.3%，收于6,699点，距离近期历史高点仅一步之遥。总体而言，本季度股市表现非常积极。 外汇市场方面，美元指数在空头仓位减少和美联储言论鸽派程度低于市场预期的推动下大幅上涨，昨日美元指数小幅收低，跌幅约0.3%。最终，自今年年 初以来，美元指数一直保持下行趋势；因此，反弹抛售可能仍将是市场的核心主题。 由于市场对美国政府可能关门的不确定性以及降息预期，金价继续走高，近期再创每金衡盎司3,870美元的历史新高。 8月份JOLTS职位空缺数据将于格林威治标准时间下午2:00公布，经济学家预计该数据为718.5万，与7月份的718.1万基本持平。值得注意的是，预测分布显 示就业人数介于最高值791万至最低值700万之间。 这份报告至关重要，因为它提供了在周五可能发布的重磅就业报告之前，对潜在劳动力需求最清晰的解读之一。 美国政府关门迫在眉睫？ 副总统JDVance昨日登上头条，他表示自己认为政府即将关门，并在白宫与国会领导人会晤后将责任归咎于民主党。由于资金将于周三凌晨12:01到期，共和 党和民主党都尚未取得任何进展。 当然，其影响远不止政治层面。潜在的政府关 ...

Market Overview - Equities experienced a rally for a second consecutive day, while gold reached a record high due to growing optimism regarding Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [1] - The expectation is that the Fed will lower borrowing costs twice more this year, following a recent cut for the first time since December [1] Economic Indicators - Upcoming labor market readings, including job openings, private hiring, and non-farm payrolls, are anticipated to show a slowdown, providing the Fed with justification to ease monetary policy [2] - Concerns exist that a potential US government shutdown could delay the release of these key economic figures [2] Political Landscape - Congressional leaders met with President Trump to negotiate funding, but significant differences remain, indicating a possible government shutdown [3] - The political divide is deepening, with accusations exchanged between parties regarding funding demands and the implications for the American public [3] Market Reactions to Shutdown - Historically, government shutdowns have minimal impact on markets, typically lasting around eight days, but there are concerns that this time could be different due to deep political divisions [4] - A prolonged shutdown could lead to serious consequences for stocks, as evidenced by the 14% drop in the S&P 500 during the 35-day shutdown from 2018-2019 [5] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices surged to nearly $3,852, with speculation that it could soon reach $4,000, reflecting a nearly 50% increase since the beginning of the year [6] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a key asset amid political and policy uncertainties, rather than just a hedge against inflation [7] Company News - Zijin Mining Group's international spin-off, Zijin Gold International, saw its stock price soar by 66% on its Hong Kong debut, raising over $3 billion in its IPO [8] - The surge in gold companies' stock prices is attributed to increased demand for gold amid market volatility [8] Market Performance - Asian markets showed mixed results, with Hong Kong and Shanghai indices rising, while Tokyo's Nikkei 225 experienced a slight decline [9] - Oil prices fell due to concerns over a potential glut, as OPEC+ discussions about increasing output in November continue [8]

美国劳工统计局刚刚发布政府停摆应急计划，将在政府停摆期间暂停所有运营，不发布经济数据。目前，美国 国会议员正倾向于迫使联邦政府停摆，这可能使政策制定者、商界领袖和投资者无法获得评估美国经济状况所 需的关键数据。桑坦德美国资本市场首席经济学家斯蒂芬•斯坦利表示，美联储下一次会议将于10月28日至29 日举行，如果没有最新的政府数据，就很难证明再次降息是合理的。一些官员已经对此持谨慎态度，希望看到 更多数据。美国商会首席政策官尼尔•布拉德利表示，政府关门不会将美国经济推入衰退，但它将付出代价， 并增加企业和商界领袖已经在应对的不确定性。 行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（9月29日）大幅收涨，开盘价3756.94美元/盎司，最高价3833.18美元/盎司，最低价3756.41美元/ 盎司，收盘价3830.34美元/盎司。 消息面： 美联储威廉姆斯周一表示，劳动力市场出现的初步疲软迹象促使他在最近一次美联储会议上支持降息。威廉姆 斯表示："将利率略微下调是有道理的"，并且"适度放松一些紧缩措施"将帮助提振就业市场，并对仍然偏高的 通胀水平施加一定下行压力。此外，他还表示，他的模型对实际中性利率的估计是0.75%，但他补充说 ...

Citing inflation, several Federal Reserve officials have signaled a reluctance to cut interest rates further. ...

Joining us for for more right now in the markets is Liz Thomas. She is SoFi's head of investment strategy. And Liz, it's good to see you. Good to see you, too.All right, let's talk about where things stand. We are ending the third quarter. We're heading into October.Some people think it could be spooky, but hey, we are looking at the markets near all-time highs. In fact, if we open at these levels, probably push us back above um all-time high levels. How do you feel about things overall.Well, I mean, the th ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve has not met its inflation target for 54 months, indicating a prolonged period of excess inflation [1][2] - Approximately three million children have been born since the Fed last achieved its inflation target, highlighting the significance of this duration [2] Inflation Insights - Current excess inflation is compounded on a 20% increase in the consumer price level, emphasizing the severity of the situation [3] - The core PCE inflation rate is reported at 2.9%, which some may downplay, but it remains a significant concern given the context of previous price increases [4][6] Policy Considerations - The discussion around tariffs suggests they only affect a small portion of the PCE index, with services unaffected by tariffs still increasing at an annualized rate of 3.5% [5][6] - There is a concern that aggressive rate cuts could lead to upward pressure on yields, as seen in previous instances where rate cuts were followed by increases in long-term yields [12] Future Expectations - The expectation is that the Fed should take time to assess the current economic conditions rather than rushing into rate cuts, especially in light of a significant capital expenditure boom [10][11] - The forward curve indicates a potential drop in rates to 3% by the end of next year, which may not align with the current economic environment characterized by low unemployment and high capital expenditures [15][16] Tariff Implications - There are complexities surrounding tariffs, including the potential for the president to utilize various statutory authorities to impose or maintain tariffs, regardless of legal challenges [17][18]