【白银期货最新行情】 数据显示，12月31日上海白银现货价格报价18430元/千克，相较于期货主力价格（17074元/千克）升水 1356元/千克。 美联储会议纪要：官员分歧严重，多数人认为利率可随通胀下降而下降。 伊朗外交部：伊朗将加拿大皇家海军列为"恐怖组织"。 泰国外交部：暂不具备举行泰柬联合边界委员会特别会议条件。 也门总统领导委员会主席宣布全国进入紧急状态，遭南方过渡委员会（STC）领导人在内的总统领导委 员会成员的反对。 沙特主导的联军对也门穆卡拉港实施空袭，称来自阿联酋的载有武器的船只在未取许可的情况下入港， 指责阿联酋此举是为了支持STC，阿联酋否认该指控。 芝商所表示，将在周三收市后，在一周内第二次上调贵金属期货保证金。此前，贵金属经历了一段剧烈 波动的交易期。该集团在声明中表示，黄金、白银、铂金和钯金合约的保证金将会增加。声明称，这一 决定是基于对"市场波动性以确保充足的抵押品覆盖"的审查做出的。 【机构观点】 | 12月31日 | 收盘价（元/千克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪银主力 | ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during the policy meeting on December 9-10, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut [1] - The decision was reached after extensive debate on the risks to the U.S. economy, with most policymakers supporting the cut as a necessary measure to stabilize the labor market amid slowing job growth and rising unemployment [1] - There were notable dissenting opinions among committee members, with some advocating for maintaining rates and others suggesting a more significant cut, indicating a rare level of disagreement within the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 have cooled, with projections now at approximately 50 basis points due to internal divisions and a cautious approach towards further easing [2] - The recent price movement of silver (TD) shows a decline of over 3% from the previous day's high, followed by a recovery of more than 2%, indicating a volatile trading environment [3] - Key support levels for silver (TD) are identified between 17,500 and 18,000, while resistance levels are noted between 18,500 and 19,000 [3]

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 31 日星期三 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 周二国债期货主力合约开盘集体高开，全天横向窄幅波动，截至收盘 30 年期国债 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 期货主力合约 TL2603 上涨 0.17%，10 年期 T2603 下跌 0.02%，5 年期 TF2603 下跌 0.01%，2 年期 TS2603 上涨 0.01%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、公开市场：周二央行开展了 3125 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作，当天有 593 亿元逆回 | | | | | 购到期，当日合计净投放 2532 亿元。 | | ...

The U.S. Federal Reserve agreed to cut interest rates at its December meeting only after a deeply nuanced debate about the risks facing the U.S. economy right now, according to minutes of the latest two-day session. Even some of those who supported the rate cut acknowledged "the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged,†given the different risks facing the U.S. economy, according to the minutes released on Tuesday. The quarter-point rate cut approved ...

The US Federal Reserve agreed to cut interest rates at its December meeting only after a deeply nuanced debate about the risks facing the US economy right now, according to minutes of the latest two-day session.Even some of those who supported the rate cut acknowledged “the decision was finely balanced or that they could have supported keeping the target range unchanged”, given the different risks facing the US economy, according to the minutes released on Tuesday.In economic projections released after the ...

Market Overview - US stock futures remained mostly steady as Wall Street attempts to recover from a tech-led decline at the end of 2025 [1] - Major Wall Street indexes experienced modest declines, with Nvidia and Tesla leading the drop amid a rotation out of tech stocks [2] Federal Reserve Insights - The release of the Federal Reserve's December meeting minutes is anticipated, which may provide insights into future interest rate decisions after a third consecutive rate cut [3] - There is a significant expectation (approximately 84%) that the Fed will maintain current interest rates in January, although opinions are divided regarding potential actions in March [4]

周二亚洲早盘，纽元兑美元（NZD/USD）小幅走高，汇价在0.5805附近波动。 在纽元一侧，新西兰货币政策预期成为重要支撑因素。市场分析认为，新西兰储备银行（RBNZ）的降息周期可能已接近尾声。 该行在11月会议上将官方现金利率下调25个基点至2.25%，并表示未来是否继续调整利率，将取决于经济增长和通胀前景。这种 相对谨慎的政策立场，使得纽元在主要货币中表现相对稳定。 根据CME FedWatch工具显示，交易员预计美联储在明年1月会议上降息的概率约为16.1%。 这一概率虽不算高，但反映出部分资金已开始提前布局更长期的利率下行周期预期。在这种情绪影响下，美元指数难以获得明显 支撑，也为纽元等非美货币提供了阶段性上行空间。 即将公布的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议纪要被视为短期内的重要观察点。投资者希望从中进一步了解决策层对通胀、经 济增长以及未来利率调整节奏的内部看法。不过，由于多数交易员已进入假期模式，整体市场反应可能相对有限，波动幅度预计 不会明显放大。 从美国经济数据来看，近期公布的部分指标表现尚可。11月美国待售房屋销售环比增长3.3%，高于10月修正后的2.4%，也显著 超过市场此前预期的 ...

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index traded at 25,944, adding 125 points or 0.49%. Japan's Nikkei was down over 200 points to 50,550. Shanghai and Shenzhen added 0.4% and 0.19%, respectively. In Korea, Kospi gained 1.6%, to reach 4,197 at 8:40 AM IST. With only a handful of trading sessions left in the year, sentiment has been supported by expectations that US interest rates could be cut further, alongside confidence that the rally led by technology stocks has not yet run out of steam. Earlier this month, the ...

Core Viewpoint - The global financial market is experiencing a "Super Central Bank Week" at the end of 2025, with significant divergence in monetary policies among major economies, marking a transition from synchronized monetary control to a new phase characterized by high volatility and low coordination [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Divergence - Major economies are adopting three distinct monetary policy approaches: rate cuts, rate hikes, and maintaining current rates [4]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve completed its third rate cut of the year in December, lowering the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, a total reduction of 75 basis points for the year [5]. - The Bank of England cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% on December 18, totaling a 100 basis point reduction for the year, as it faces high inflation and economic weakness [5]. - The Russian Central Bank lowered its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 16%, marking the fifth consecutive cut since starting its easing cycle, with a total reduction of 500 basis points from a peak of 21% [6]. - Japan's Central Bank raised its rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, ending nearly 30 years of ultra-loose monetary policy, driven by rising inflation and a depreciating yen [7]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The European Central Bank maintained its key rates, reflecting a cautious approach amid fragile economic conditions, with GDP growth expected at 1.4% for the EU and 1.3% for the Eurozone, below the global average of 3.0% [10]. - The ECB's decision to hold rates steady indicates a shift from a rate-cutting cycle to an observation phase, as inflation in the Eurozone stabilized at 2.1% in November [11]. - Other countries like Switzerland, Canada, and Australia also kept their rates unchanged, contributing to a neutral policy stance [12]. Group 3: Global Economic Restructuring - The historical divergence in global monetary policies is reshaping the economic and financial landscape through capital flows and trade interactions [13]. - The shift in capital flows is moving from "chasing high interest" to "stabilizing expectations," with the U.S. and U.K. rate cuts leading to a decrease in the attractiveness of domestic assets [14]. - The depreciation of the dollar due to rate cuts is benefiting export-oriented companies in economies like China and ASEAN, while the yen's appreciation from rate hikes negatively impacts Japanese exporters [17]. Group 4: Future Economic Outlook - The divergence in monetary policies is indicative of a multi-polar and multi-cycle global economy, with predictions of global GDP growth between 2.8% and 3.1% in 2026, highlighting a growing divide between developed and emerging markets [20]. - The potential for increased financial volatility, trade friction, and uneven growth due to rate divergence is expected to become the new normal in the global economy [20].

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Friday fell -0.03%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) fell -0.04%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) fell -0.05%.  March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) fell -0.08%, and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) closed -0.07%. The S&P 500 index on Friday edged to a new record high but then fell back and closed the day slightly lower.  Stocks ran out of gas on Friday ahead of the weekend, but the S&P 500 index still closed the week up +1.4%, and the Nasdaq 100 index ...