高盛固定收益、外汇及大宗商品（FICC）部门分析师认为，美联储在即将到来的12月会议上降息已基本成为定局。 分析师指出，基于劳动力市场的疲软趋势和风险管理需求，此时降息是正确的政策选择，而市场定价也已充分反映了这一预期。 上周五Williams发表的评论足以表明，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）内部已有足够的支持票数推动降息。受此影响，市场定价已回升至21个 基点。随着美联储正式进入静默期，市场定价显示的降息概率已高达85%。 高盛分析师指出，鉴于在此次会议前的数据日历较为稀疏，且市场预期高度一致，降息已被"锁定"。考虑到劳动力市场的轨迹，美联储在12月 降息，随后在1月——即实际上再观察三份非农就业报告后——进行重新评估，是良好的风险管理策略。 展望未来，尽管短期劳动力数据存在下行风险，但财政政策带来的顺风预计将在明年支撑经济增长。高盛预计，在通胀保持温和及潜在的鸽派 美联储主席人选背景下，前端利率抛售空间有限，但在明年一季度，做空10年期美债将成为主要的交易策略。 高盛分析：降息已成定局 高盛FICC分析师Rikin Shah和Cosimo Codacci-Pisanelli在报告中指出，通往12月美联储会 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have shifted their stance regarding interest rate cuts in December, with market predictions for a rate cut probability exceeding 90% [1] - The core reason for this shift is the increasing risk of a weak labor market, as evidenced by the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%, the highest level since 2021, and significant downward revisions in non-farm payrolls [1] - The San Francisco Fed President Daly warned of a fragile balance in the labor market, indicating that if companies accelerate layoffs due to underperformance, the employment situation could deteriorate rapidly [1] Group 2 - Inflationary pressures are gradually easing, providing the Federal Reserve with more policy space to consider rate cuts [2] - As of September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. rose by 3.0% year-on-year, while the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained around 2.8%, still above the Fed's long-term target of 2% [2] - The analysis from the New York Fed President Williams suggests that tariffs contribute only about 0.5 to 0.75 percentage points to CPI, with no signs of second-round effects, and he anticipates inflation returning to target levels by 2027 [2] Group 3 - The increased probability of rate cuts is favorable for gold prices, with gold futures closing up 1.48% at 946.5 yuan per gram [3]

美联储理事沃勒周一表示，就我们的双重使命而言，我主要的担忧在于劳动力市场。因此，我正在积极呼吁在 下一次会议上进行降息。"他补充道："一旦进入1月，你可能会看到一种更偏向'逐次会议'的方式。"自美联储 上次会议以来，现有数据显示变化不大，通胀并非大问题。大多数私营部门数据显示就业市场疲软。他仍不认 为劳动力市场会在未来几周内出现转机，预计9月份就业数据可能会被下修，数据集中出现并非好兆头。他指 出，没有迹象表明企业即将掀起招聘热潮。 行情回顾： 国际黄金周一（11月24日）大幅收涨，开盘价4069.67美元/盎司，最高价4093.82美元/盎司，最低价4040.02美 元/盎司，收盘价4091.72美元/盎司。 消息面： 据华尔街日报报道，美国旧金山联储主席、2027年FOMC票委戴利表示，她支持在下个月降息，因为她认为就 业市场突然恶化的可能性比通胀骤然上升更大，也更难以控制。她在周一的采访中说："在劳动力市场上，我 没有信心我们能走在前面。现在劳动力市场已足够脆弱，风险在于发生非线性变化。"她表示，相比之下，通 胀爆发的风险较低，因为关税推动的成本增长比今年早些时候的预期要温和得多。戴利的观点值得关注，尽 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **US labor market** and its implications for the **Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)** decisions regarding interest rates. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **FOMC Meeting Schedule**: There is speculation about whether the FOMC will move its December meeting back by a week to gather more employment data before making policy decisions. The meeting is currently scheduled for December 9-10, which is earlier than usual [8][10][12]. 2. **Employment Data Sensitivity**: The FOMC has historically adjusted policy based on employment reports, indicating a high sensitivity to labor market data. The upcoming meeting could be influenced by two months of employment data released shortly after the meeting [8][12][14]. 3. **Labor Market Indicators**: The leading employment indicator remained elevated at **75%** in September, down from **88%** in August, suggesting potential job losses ahead. This indicator reflects a weakening in key sectors [2][18][19]. 4. **Nonfarm Payrolls**: Nonfarm payrolls expanded by **119K** in September, slightly above expectations, but the three-month moving average remains soft at **62K** jobs added per month. The unemployment rate increased to **4.4%**, indicating a slackening labor market [5][68][74]. 5. **Inflation Expectations**: Longer-term inflation expectations were revised down to **3.4%**, reflecting a cautious outlook on inflation trends [70][71]. 6. **AI's Economic Impact**: The adoption of AI is expected to influence productivity growth significantly, with estimates ranging from **0.1 pp** to **3.5 pp** annual increases over the next decade. However, current productivity growth remains lackluster [3][37][39][48]. 7. **Regime Change in Productivity**: There is a possibility of a regime shift in US productivity growth, with estimates suggesting a potential increase of **1 to 1.5 pp** in structural productivity growth in the coming years [47][49]. Additional Important Content 1. **Delayed Data Releases**: The FOMC is facing a divided outlook, with some members advocating for a rate cut while others remain cautious. The upcoming data releases could significantly impact the committee's decision [5][69][80]. 2. **Sector-Specific Employment Trends**: Employment in leisure and hospitality sectors showed improvement, while manufacturing and construction sectors exhibited weakness. This reflects broader trends in the labor market [84][88]. 3. **Wage Growth**: Average hourly earnings increased by **0.25%** in September, with a year-over-year change of **3.79%**, indicating moderate wage growth amidst a softening labor market [92][93]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the labor market's current state, implications for monetary policy, and the potential impact of AI on productivity.

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller advocates for a rate cut in December, citing a weak labor market and stable inflation as key factors [2][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Position - Waller emphasizes that the labor market shows signs of weakness, with no immediate indications of increased hiring from businesses [2]. - He expresses concern over the labor market and suggests that the employment data from September may be revised downward [2]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December is reported at 69.4%, with a 30.6% chance of maintaining the current rate [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Waller's comments, spot gold prices surged nearly $10 per ounce, reaching $4080 per ounce [4]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the Federal Reserve will implement a third consecutive rate cut in December, driven by slowing inflation and a cooling labor market [5]. - Goldman Sachs also forecasts two additional rate cuts in March and June 2026, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.00% to 3.25% [5]. Group 3: Economic Perspectives - Generali Investments' economist Paolo Zanghieri suggests that the market's expectations for rate cuts may be overly optimistic, predicting only a 50% chance of a cut next month [6]. - Zanghieri believes that the market's anticipation of nearly four rate cuts next year is excessive, expecting only a total of 50 basis points by summer [6].

高盛集团经济学家预计美联储将在12月降息，使利率降至略高于3%的水平。该行首席经济学家Jan Hatzius警告称，美国经济放缓的幅度可能超出预期，所以需要美联储更多的降息。他表示，尽管9月非 农报告显示就业市场新增了11.9万个就业岗位，但不断增加的裁员表明劳动力市场的疲软可能正在固 化，从而限制了经济温和增长的影响力。 来源：滚动播报 ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 尽管美联储政策制定者在12月会议前出现严重分歧，但渣打银行表示，这不大可能阻止美联储继续降 息，并警告就业市场预期的疲软将继续主导货币政策走向。 "我们坚持认为FOMC将在12月降息，主要因为我们认为9-11月的就业数据很可能会非常疲软，"渣打银 行全球G10外汇研究和北美宏观策略主管史蒂夫·英格兰德（Steve Englander）在最近的一份报告中表 示。"这应该足以促使美联储中间派倒向降息阵营。" 在英格兰德看来，分歧的根本原因不在于对经济数据的不同解读——这些"很可能会被即将到来的数据 解决"，而在于政策制定者"对政策应如何应对高于目标的通胀和低于目标的劳动力市场结果有不同评 估"。 最强硬的鹰派声音包括堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·R·施密德（Jeffrey R. Schmid）、波士顿联储主席苏珊 ·M·柯林斯（Susan M. Collins）和圣路易斯联储主席阿尔贝托·G·穆萨莱姆（Alberto G. Musalem）。 英格兰德补充说，他们希望"避免可能难以逆转的提前降息"，这与美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）的鸽派立 ...

前美联储副主席Lael Brainard（布雷纳德）：美联储应该为了防止劳动力市场进一步疲软而谨慎行事， 下个月应再次降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is experiencing unprecedented internal divisions regarding the future path of interest rate cuts, primarily debating whether persistent inflation or a weak labor market poses a greater threat [1][2][3] Group 1: Internal Divisions - A significant split among officials has emerged, with 10 out of 19 members anticipating further rate cuts in October and December, while hawkish officials question the necessity of additional cuts [2][3] - The government shutdown has exacerbated these divisions by halting the release of employment and inflation reports, leading officials to rely on private surveys and rumors to support their views [2][3] - The debate over the December meeting's actions is particularly intense, with hawks strongly opposing the expectation of a third rate cut [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Concerns about the labor market's weakness persist, with new job growth declining significantly from an average of 168,000 in 2024 to just 29,000 as of August [5] - Inflation remains a critical issue, with a key inflation indicator at 2.9% in August, above the Fed's 2% target and higher than earlier predictions following tariff increases [3][5] - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, has accelerated from 2.4% in June to 3.6% in recent months, raising alarms among hawkish officials [8] Group 3: Key Questions - Officials are divided on whether tariff-driven price increases will be temporary or persistent, with hawks fearing that companies may pass on more costs to consumers in the future [4] - The decline in monthly job growth raises questions about whether it is due to weak demand or reduced labor supply from immigration, impacting the decision on interest rates [5] - There is disagreement on whether current interest rates are still restrictive, with hawks arguing that further cuts could pose risks, while doves believe there is still room to support the labor market without reigniting inflation [5][6] Group 4: Powell's Balancing Act - Fed Chair Powell has attempted to mediate these divisions, advocating for a temporary impact of tariffs and linking labor market weakness to insufficient demand [6][7] - Powell's recent statements indicate that a December rate cut is not guaranteed, reflecting the need to consider diverse viewpoints within the committee [7][9] - The evolving stance of officials, including the shift of Chicago Fed President Goolsbee from a dovish to a more cautious position, illustrates the changing dynamics within the Fed [7][9]

美联储戴利：随着劳动力市场疲软，风险平衡已经发生变化。 来源：滚动播报 ...