小K侃有色 . 我是小K，欢迎大家来扎营、吐槽，集股债商汇于一体，无分析不成文、无数学不乐趣的辣评集中营。 以下文章来源于小K侃有色 ，作者小K侃有色 文 | 小K侃有色 来源 | 小K侃有色 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 摘要 自4月2日对等关税以来大宗商品跳空暴跌8.88%（最高点到最低点），后随着90天暂停关税市场沿着关税缓和的路径修复了部分 下跌，目前自最低点上涨了3.92%，目前看跳空缺口修复无望。在此期间波动率快速收窄，技术上也面临20日均线的压制，静等 下一步指引。如果从板块上来看，工业品弱于农产品，工业品之于关税作用于需求远大于供给，农产品作用于供给远大于需求。 还有一个现象，这一波下跌实际上是压缩利润的，最明显的例子就是化工品相对于油品来说反弹是更弱的，扒开各个品种细分来 看也大致如此。 接下来大宗市场路向何方？我们也来唠一唠。 一、宏观上，今年也是宏观大年，不过相对于前两年来说是宏观利空年 国际货币基金组织(IMF)当地时间4月22日发布最新一期《世界经济展望报告》，将2025年全球经济增长预期下调至2.8%，较今年1月 预测值低0.5个百分点。IMF预计，2026年全球经济将增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 41.973 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.91% year-on-year, while the total profit reached 1.835 billion yuan, an increase of 5.15% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.444 billion yuan, up 2.55% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2025, the company achieved a total revenue of 9.729 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.82%, with total profit of 608 million yuan, up 40.51% year-on-year, and net profit of 499 million yuan, up 53.09% year-on-year [5][6] - The company experienced an increase in production and prices for its main products, with total production of non-ferrous metals reaching 361,000 tons in 2024, including 84,800 tons of tin, 130,300 tons of copper, and 144,000 tons of zinc. The self-sufficiency rates for tin, copper, and zinc were 30.21%, 15.91%, and 72.72%, respectively [5] - The supply-demand dynamics for tin remain favorable, with a tightening global supply due to policy restrictions in Southeast Asia and stable demand growth driven by sectors such as electric vehicles and semiconductors [5] - The company is a leader in the tin industry, with a domestic market share of 47.98% and a global market share of 25.03% in 2024, positioning it well to benefit from ongoing industry prosperity [5] Financial Data Summary - The company’s total assets were reported at 36.803 billion yuan, with a total market capitalization of 22.827 billion yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at 0.88 yuan, with a net profit margin of 3.7% [6][8] - Forecasted net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.269 billion yuan, 2.406 billion yuan, and 2.828 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a strong growth trajectory [5][8]

点击招商研究小程序查看PDF报告原文 事件： 德州仪器于4月23日发布2025年第一季度财报，25Q1公司营收40.69亿美元，同比+11.1%/环比+1.5%，净利润11.79亿美元，同比+6.7%/环 比-2.2%，工业市场广泛复苏，指引25Q2不受近期关税政策扰动，综合财报及电话会议信息，总结要点如下： 评论： 1、25Q1营收略超指引上限，EPS超指引预期。 25Q1公司营收40.69亿美元，同比+11.1%/环比+1.5%，略超指引上限（37.4-40.6亿美元）；毛利率56.84%，同比-0.4pct/环比-0.9pct；净 利润11.79亿美元，同比+6.7%/环比-2.2%。EPS为1.28美元，超指引预期（0.94-1.16美元）。25Q1库存为47亿美元，环比增加1.6亿美元，库 存周转天数为240天，环比减少1天。 2、25Q1模拟同环比均实现增长，工业市场广泛复苏。 1）分产品类型： 25Q1模拟产品收入为32.1亿美元，同比+13.2%/环比+1.1%；嵌入式处理业务部门收入6.47亿美元，同比-0.8%/环比+5. 5%；其他业务部门收入2.12亿美元，同比+22.5%/环比-3. ...

Core Viewpoint - Texas Instruments reported Q1 2025 revenue of $4.069 billion, a year-over-year increase of 11.1% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 1.5%, indicating a broad recovery in the industrial market and guidance for Q2 2025 unaffected by recent tariff policies [1][2][3] Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue slightly exceeded guidance upper limit, with earnings per share (EPS) of $1.28, surpassing the expected range of $0.94 to $1.16 [1][2] - Gross margin was 56.84%, down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year and 0.9 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, while net profit was $1.179 billion, up 6.7% year-over-year but down 2.2% quarter-over-quarter [1][8] - Inventory increased to $4.7 billion, with inventory turnover days decreasing to 240 days, down by 1 day [1][8] Product and Market Segmentation - Revenue from analog products was $3.21 billion, up 13.2% year-over-year and 1.1% quarter-over-quarter; embedded processing revenue was $647 million, down 0.8% year-over-year but up 5.5% quarter-over-quarter; other business segments generated $212 million, up 22.5% year-over-year but down 3.6% quarter-over-quarter [2][3] - The industrial market showed broad recovery after seven consecutive quarters of decline, with a high single-digit quarter-over-quarter growth; automotive market growth was low single-digit, while personal electronics saw a seasonal decline of approximately 15% [2][3][7] Q2 2025 Guidance - Q2 2025 revenue guidance is set at a midpoint of $4.35 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 13.8% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 6.9%; EPS guidance is $1.34, up 9.8% year-over-year and 4.7% quarter-over-quarter [2][10] - The company expects capacity utilization and gross margin to increase quarter-over-quarter, with a projected effective tax rate of 12%-13% [2][10] Supply Chain and Market Strategy - The semiconductor cycle is believed to have bottomed out, with customer inventories at low levels, prompting some customers to replenish stock in response to uncertain policy environments [3][9] - In the Chinese market, which accounted for 20% of Q1 2025 revenue, the company plans to localize some supply chains to enhance reliability and reduce costs [3][9][19] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - Q1 2025 operating cash flow was $849 million, with a total of $6.2 billion returned to shareholders over the past 12 months through dividends and stock buybacks [8][23] - The company has a cash and short-term investment balance of $5 billion and has repaid $750 million in debt, maintaining a total debt balance of $12.95 billion [8][23]