2026 年 1 月 5 日 | | | 公司基本资讯 | 产业别 | | 机械设备 | | --- | --- | --- | | A 股价(2025/12/31) | | 272.72 | | 上证指数(2025/12/31) | | 3968.84 | | 股价 12 个月高/低 | | 342.5/164.61 | | 总发行股数(百万) | | 626.15 | | A 股数(百万) | | 626.15 | | A 市值(亿元) | | 1707.62 | | 主要股东 | | 上海创业投资 | | | | 有限公司 | | | | (14.93%) | | 每股净值(元) | | 34.29 | | 股价/账面净值 | | 7.95 | | | 一个月 三个月 | 一年 | | 股价涨跌(%) | 5.1 | -7.6 44.4 | | 近期评等 | | | | 出刊日期 | 前日收盘 | 评等 | | 2025-11-03 | 277.90 | 买进 | | 2025-07-04 | 177.74 | 买进 | | 2025-04-24 | 187.35 | 买进 | | 产品组合 | | | ...

中经记者 顾梦轩 李正豪 广州 北京报道 市值超1700亿元的半导体设备龙头企业中微公司（688012.SH）在"平台化"战略道路上再进一步。近 日，中微公司发布公告称，其正在筹划以发行股份方式购买杭州众硅电子科技有限公司（以下简称"杭 州众硅"）的控股权，并募集配套资金。根据公告，公司股票自2025年12月19日开市起停牌，预计停牌 时间不超过10个交易日。 就此，南开大学金融发展研究院院长田利辉在接受《中国经营报》记者采访时指出，中微公司收购杭州 众硅，是半导体设备产业链整合的必然选择。刻蚀、薄膜沉积与CMP（Chemical Mechanical Polishing， 化学机械抛光）并列为半导体前道工艺三大核心设备，缺一不可。中微公司作为刻蚀设备龙头企业，通 过收购填补湿法设备空白，实现"干法+湿法"完整覆盖，构建成套工艺解决方案，大幅提升客户黏性与 市场竞争力。这不仅是产品线的延伸，更是战略协同的深化，标志着中微公司正在推进从"单一设备供 应商"向"平台型半导体设备企业"的关键转型。 值得一提的是，中微公司现任董事长尹志尧，是顶尖半导体专家，中国科学技术大学毕业的他，60岁时 创办中微公司，专注研发刻 ...

22 December 2025 | 8:35AM HKT Equity Research AMEC (688012.SS): CMP tool acquisition plan announced and mix upgrade towards advanced nodes; Buy AMEC has announced its plan to acquire a local 12'' CMP (Chemical Mechanical Polishing) supplier Hangzhou Sizonetech (private) through a private placement of share issuance on Dec 18 (Link). The proposed acquisition would enable AMEC to expand its offerings from etching/ deposition/ Ion Implantation tools to include CMP equipment. While we do not take a view on the ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that export control measures on key metals have become a crucial advantage for China in the context of major power competition, particularly against the US and EU [8][9] - China's leading position in key metals is attributed to its resource advantages and a complete industrial system, which is difficult for developed economies to replicate in the short term [8] Fixed Income - The bond market is expected to face challenges in 2026, with less likelihood of a one-sided decline in interest rates as seen from 2022 to 2024, suggesting a need for a more flexible trading strategy [10] - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yield increased slightly to 1.8425% during the week, reflecting market reactions to policy announcements [10] Industry Analysis Minshi Group (敏实集团) - Minshi Group is a leading global supplier of automotive exterior and structural parts, benefiting from the acceleration of electric vehicle adoption in Europe, particularly in the battery box business [22][24] - The company is expanding into humanoid robotics and liquid cooling for servers, which are expected to open new growth opportunities [22][24] - Profit forecasts for Minshi Group indicate net profits of 2.753 billion, 3.257 billion, and 3.878 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.34, 2.76, and 3.29 yuan, and P/E ratios of 11.91, 10.07, and 8.46 respectively [22] Zhongwei Company (中微公司) - Zhongwei Company plans to acquire Hangzhou Zhonggui to enhance its capabilities in CMP equipment, which is crucial for semiconductor manufacturing [7] - The acquisition aims to strengthen Zhongwei's competitiveness in complete process solutions, complementing its existing dry process equipment [7] - Profit forecasts for Zhongwei Company remain at 2.44 billion, 3.41 billion, and 4.46 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with dynamic P/E ratios of 70, 50, and 38 respectively [7]

Industry Perspective - Semiconductor equipment is the cornerstone of the semiconductor industry, with significant growth potential driven by storage expansion and domestic substitution [1] - According to SEMI, the semiconductor equipment market will maintain a 33.2% share as the largest single market globally in the first half of 2025, with leading domestic companies showing impressive performance [1] - The combined revenue of eight leading domestic companies is expected to grow by 37.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to increase by 23.9% in the first three quarters of 2025 [1] Investment Logic - The global semiconductor market has entered a strong recovery cycle, with the market expected to grow by 18.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 and 15.4% for the entire year [2] - AI technology is driving a surge in storage demand, with significant supply-demand gaps pushing prices higher; NAND and DRAM prices are expected to rise by 5-10% and 13-18%, respectively, by Q4 2025 [2] Domestic Storage Leaders - Domestic storage companies are accelerating capacity expansion, with Longxin Storage starting its IPO process and Jiangsu Changjiang Storage's third-phase project being officially established [3] - The introduction of 3D DRAM technology and advancements in NAND stacking are expected to significantly increase the market for etching and thin-film deposition equipment, with projected growth of 1.7 times and 1.8 times, respectively [3] Investment Recommendations - 2025 is anticipated to be a significant year for order growth and performance realization in the domestic semiconductor equipment sector [4] - Key beneficiaries include companies like Zhongwei Company, which is expected to benefit from storage expansion and 3D technology iterations [4] - Other recommended companies include North Huachuang, which has a broad product line, and Huahai Qingke, Zhongke Feice, and Jingce Electronics, which are rapidly increasing their domestic market share in specific segments [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company maintains a "Buy" rating, with strong revenue growth expected in 2023 and 2024, followed by a decline in subsequent years, while profitability is projected to stabilize in the long term [2][6]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to reach RMB 6,302 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 9,198 million in 2024, before declining to RMB 6,681 million in 2025, and further to RMB 6,218 million in 2026, with a slight recovery to RMB 6,465 million in 2027 [2][6]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 1,255.82 million in 2023, slightly increasing to RMB 1,272.90 million in 2024, but dropping to RMB 678.82 million in 2025, and then to RMB 607.21 million in 2026, with a recovery to RMB 640.46 million in 2027 [2][6]. - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be RMB 3.98 in 2023, RMB 4.04 in 2024, and then decreasing to RMB 2.15 in 2025, RMB 1.93 in 2026, and recovering to RMB 2.03 in 2027 [2][6]. - The P/E ratio is expected to be 9.81 in 2023, 9.68 in 2024, increasing to 18.16 in 2025, 20.30 in 2026, and slightly decreasing to 19.24 in 2027 [2][6]. Market Developments - The company has secured a RMB 700 million order from a leading customer for its string welding machines, indicating strong demand for its multi-slice technology that enhances power efficiency in photovoltaic modules [3]. - The overseas market is becoming a core source of orders, with RMB 3.5 billion in overseas orders expected in 2024, where 72% are from pure overseas customers, and 40% of total orders in the first three quarters of 2025 are expected to come from overseas [4]. - The company is evolving into an automation platform that spans photovoltaic, lithium battery, and semiconductor sectors, with significant market share in various segments, including over 60% in string welding machines [5]. Financial Position - The company's total assets are projected to be RMB 14,029 million in 2024, with current assets of RMB 11,604 million and total liabilities of RMB 9,902 million [7]. - The net profit margin is expected to be 13.84% in 2024, decreasing to 10.16% in 2025, and stabilizing around 9.77% in 2026 and 9.91% in 2027 [7]. - The company anticipates a return on equity (ROE) of 31.25% in 2024, declining to 14.29% in 2025, and further to 11.33% in 2026, before recovering to 10.68% in 2027 [7].

Core Insights - UBS's recent survey indicates a significant demand divergence in the Chinese semiconductor industry by 2026, with strong growth expected in semiconductor equipment, AI infrastructure, and autonomous driving, while smartphone-related sectors face short-term pressures [1][3] Semiconductor Equipment Demand - The semiconductor equipment supply chain shows optimistic demand forecasts, with a projected year-on-year growth of 8%-10% for 2026, driven by capacity expansions from Yangtze Memory Technologies and ChangXin Memory [5][9] - Domestic storage chip clients are expected to place formal orders soon, indicating a robust demand outlook [3][5] Industry Challenges - IC companies without wafer fabs and mature process foundries may experience demand declines or specification downgrades due to rising storage costs in the smartphone sector [3][9] - The trend of wafer fab clients expanding their supplier base may pressure existing suppliers to lower prices, potentially impacting long-term gross margins [9] Key Company Developments - North Huachuang is confident in outperforming industry averages, with optimistic progress in CCP etching equipment, aiming to fully replace Applied Materials in metal deposition [7] - Huahai QK is expanding its product portfolio from CMP equipment to include grinding, polishing, ion implantation, and wafer inspection, anticipating growth in material removal equipment due to advanced packaging technologies [7] - Jingyi Automation has achieved a market share of 90%-100% for its core products in leading domestic wafer fabs, with increasing demand for ultra-low temperature cooling machines [7] Foundry Capacity and Technology - ChangXin Memory expects high capacity utilization rates through Q4 2025, with a slight seasonal decline in Q1 2026, while facing pricing pressures in the smartphone-related CIS and DDIC sectors [11] - Yuexin Semiconductor's 6-inch production line is operating at full capacity, while its 8-inch line is at 70%-80% utilization, focusing on power discrete devices [12] IC Product Expansion - Horizon Robotics is expanding from consumer electronics to high-growth sectors, with its high-end autonomous driving solutions being adopted by multiple OEMs [14] - Nanchip Technology is leveraging its consumer electronics foundation to expand into automotive, AI, and industrial sectors, aiming for a significant increase in domestic market share by 2030 [14] Backend Testing Growth - Backend testing is experiencing explosive growth driven by AI demand, with leading companies like Huafeng Testing and Visonic Testing seeing strong order growth and technological advancements [17] Display and Optical Modules - BOE expects slight growth in LCD panel shipments and area in 2025, with a strong performance in the Latin American market [19] - The domestic optical module market is projected to see significant growth, with an expected shipment of 15-16 million units in 2025, increasing to 20 million in 2026 [20][21]

Group 1: Core Concept of Atomic-Level Manufacturing - Atomic-level manufacturing is described as the ultimate form of material manipulation, akin to "extreme Lego" or "atomic embroidery," allowing precise control over individual atoms to create new materials and devices [2][3] - The technology has evolved from merely observing atoms to manipulating them, with significant advancements in techniques that allow for the determination of atomic coordinates [3][4] Group 2: Industry Applications and Implications - In the integrated circuit industry, achieving single-atom features in chips could reduce size and power consumption to less than one-thousandth of current levels while increasing computational power by over a thousand times [3] - The development of atomic-level manufacturing is seen as a strategic priority for major countries, with initiatives like the National Natural Science Foundation of China launching special projects by 2025 [3][4] Group 3: Research and Technological Innovations - Researchers are exploring innovative methods, such as using DNA as a programming language to guide the precise construction of atomic-level structures [3][4] - The Nanjing Atomic Manufacturing Research Institute has established a 30-meter-long experimental facility capable of manipulating atomic clusters at unprecedented speeds, achieving over a trillion operations per second [4][5] Group 4: Future Prospects and Global Collaboration - The potential of atomic-level manufacturing is vast, with applications ranging from energy solutions, such as artificial leaves for clean energy production, to breakthroughs in quantum computing and medical technologies [13][14][15] - The realization of atomic-level manufacturing will require interdisciplinary collaboration and the development of a skilled workforce across various scientific fields [15]

Macro Strategy - The core view is that actual interest rates remain the key anchor for gold prices, with fluctuations in actual rates dominating the market dynamics for gold [1][22] - In October, gold prices experienced a "rise first, then fall" pattern, influenced by U.S. government shutdown concerns and subsequent economic data recovery [1][22] - The outlook for November suggests that gold prices will be driven by geopolitical situations, trade negotiations, and macro policies, with a potential for continued high-level fluctuations [1][22] Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses a trading strategy of "long old bonds and short new bonds" based on the behavior of active bond spreads during the cutting process [2][23] - The active bond spread is expected to remain profitable, with the maximum spread observed at 9.8 basis points since the switch in 2023 [2][23] - The next active bond switch is anticipated around early January 2026, providing an opportunity to leverage the characteristics of active bond spreads for trading [2][23] Retail Industry - Baima Tea, a leader in the high-end tea market, has recently listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, focusing on high-quality tea products and targeting younger consumers [4][26] - The company's revenue growth has been accompanied by a decline in profit margins, with a slight decrease in gross and net profit margins reported [4][26] - The online sales channel is increasingly significant, with its contribution to total revenue rising from 19% in 2020 to 35% in the first half of 2025 [4][26] Food and Beverage Industry - The report highlights a divergence in growth within the snack sector, with leading companies showing more sustainable growth due to channel changes and consumer shifts [5][27] - Companies like Salted Fish and Wei Long are recommended for their strong channel layouts and significant contributions from key products [5][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous growth and valuation switching certainty in investment recommendations, particularly for companies like Ba Bi Food and Guo Quan [5][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown continuous revenue growth, with a reported revenue of 3.194 billion yuan for Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 30.3%. This growth is primarily driven by increased sales of CMP equipment, which has also boosted consumables and maintenance services [7]. - The company's gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 44.09%, slightly down by 1.73 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 24.8%, down by 4.6 percentage points year-on-year. The company has maintained high R&D investment, with R&D expenses increasing by 42.8% year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights the company's increasing market share in CMP equipment and rapid growth in thinning and cutting equipment, with significant orders from leading semiconductor companies [7]. Financial Summary - The company's total revenue is projected to reach 4.553 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33.67%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.183 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 15.62% [1][8]. - The report provides detailed financial forecasts, including a projected EPS of 3.35 yuan for 2025 and a P/E ratio of 40 based on the current stock price [1][8]. - The company's cash flow from operating activities for Q1-Q3 2025 was reported at 424 million yuan, a decrease of 51.6% year-on-year, attributed to increased business scale and reduced government subsidies [7].