Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 60.00, representing a potential upside of 23.20% from the current price of HKD 48.70 [3][5]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a gradual recovery in downstream demand, which is driving a steady improvement in the company's fundamentals [3]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 25.0% and a net profit CAGR of 90.0% over the next three years, supported by increasing demand from downstream clients and the urgency for domestic semiconductor alternatives [5][7]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported total revenue of USD 6,321.56 million, a decrease of 13.09% from the previous year, but projected to grow to USD 8,029.92 million in 2024, reflecting a 27.02% increase [4][7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 was USD 902.53 million, down 50.35% from 2022, with forecasts indicating a recovery to USD 851.73 million in 2025 and USD 1,277.34 million in 2026 [4][5]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 was USD 0.11, with projections of USD 0.16 in 2025 and USD 0.22 in 2026, indicating a significant recovery trajectory [5][7]. Market Position and Outlook - The company ranks as the third-largest wafer foundry globally, with a market share of 6% as of Q1 2025, and is expected to benefit from advancements in process technology and increased production capacity [5][7]. - The company anticipates a 5%-7% revenue growth in Q3 2025, with a projected revenue range of USD 23.2 billion to USD 23.6 billion, aligning with market expectations [5][7]. - The demand for AI-related products is expected to grow by over 10% in 2025, contributing to an increase in wafer shipments despite a slight decline in prices [5][7].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant return of investor interest, with new account openings in July 2025 reaching 1.9636 million, marking a 19.27% month-on-month increase and a 70.5% year-on-year increase, primarily driven by individual investors [2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The surge in new accounts is attributed to a combination of market recovery and policy incentives, with the overall market showing a positive trend [4]. - In July, major A-share indices recorded increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.20%, and the ChiNext Index leading with an 8.14% increase [5]. - Trading activity also saw a significant uptick, with total A-share transactions reaching 29.4 trillion shares and a total transaction value of 37.58 trillion yuan, both setting new monthly records for the year [5]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The new individual investors are showing a preference for sectors with clear policy support and strong industry trends, particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing [8][9]. - The average turnover rate in July reached 91.71%, a 15.13% increase from June, indicating high trading activity, especially in small-cap stocks [10]. - New investors are characterized by a tendency to chase market trends and engage in short-term trading, with many showing interest in high-growth sectors like the ChiNext and STAR Market [10][12]. Group 3: Brokerage Industry Impact - The increase in new accounts is expected to boost brokerage firms' trading volumes and revenues, with a notable rise in margin financing balances, which reached 1.9710 trillion yuan by the end of July [5][13]. - Despite the growth in trading activity, brokerage commission rates are declining, with the average commission rate in Shanghai dropping by 8.2% year-on-year to 0.201‰ [14][15]. - Brokerages are adapting by shifting focus from traditional transaction services to value-added services, such as personalized investment advice and wealth management, to meet the needs of new investors [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant return of investor enthusiasm, driven by a recovering market and the release of policy dividends, as evidenced by a substantial increase in new account openings in July 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - In July 2025, A-share new account openings reached 1.9636 million, a month-on-month increase of 19.27% and a year-on-year increase of 70.5%, with individual investors accounting for 99.5% of new accounts [1][2]. - The overall market performance in July saw major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component up 5.20%, and the ChiNext Index leading with an 8.14% increase [2]. - Trading activity surged, with total A-share transactions reaching 29.4 trillion shares and total transaction value hitting 37.58 trillion yuan, both marking new highs for the year [2]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The influx of nearly 200,000 new individual investors in July contributed to a total of over 14 million new accounts since the beginning of the year, indicating a rising participation rate among individual investors [7]. - Investors are gravitating towards sectors with clear policy support and strong industry trends, particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing, which accounted for over 30% of total trading volume [7][8]. - The average turnover rate in July reached 91.71%, a significant increase from 76.58% in June, with small-cap stocks being the primary focus for high-frequency trading [8]. Group 3: Brokerages and Industry Impact - The surge in new accounts is expected to drive growth in brokerage firms' trading volumes and revenues, with a notable increase in margin financing balances reaching 1.98 trillion yuan by the end of July [3][11]. - Despite the increase in trading activity, brokerage commission rates are declining, with the average commission rate in Shanghai dropping to 0.201‰, a decrease of 8.2% year-on-year [11][12]. - Brokerages are shifting their focus from traditional transaction services to value-added services, such as personalized asset management and wealth management, to meet the needs of new investors [12][13].

Market Overview - The A-share market has seen a significant return of investor interest, with 1.9636 million new accounts opened in July 2025, a month-on-month increase of 19.27% and a year-on-year increase of 70.5% [1] - Individual investors accounted for 99.5% of new accounts, indicating strong participation from retail investors [1] Driving Factors for Investor Entry - The surge in new accounts is attributed to a recovering market and the release of policy benefits, with the overall market sentiment improving [2] - Major A-share indices recorded gains in July, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component up 5.20%, and the ChiNext Index leading with an 8.14% increase [2] Trading Activity and Market Dynamics - A total of 29.4 trillion shares were traded in July, an increase of over 8 trillion shares from June, with a trading volume of 37.58 trillion yuan, marking a monthly high for the year [2] - Over 3,600 A-shares rose in July, with more than 1,000 stocks gaining over 10% and nearly 200 stocks rising over 30%, indicating structural opportunities attracting outside capital [2] Investor Behavior and Preferences - New individual investors are showing a preference for sectors with clear policy support and strong industry trends, particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing [4] - The average turnover rate in July reached 91.71%, up from 76.58% in June, with small-cap stocks being the primary focus for high-frequency trading [6] Brokerages and Business Impact - The increase in new accounts is expected to drive growth in brokerage firms' trading volumes, with a notable rise in margin financing balances, reaching 1.98 trillion yuan by the end of July [2][7] - Despite the growth in trading activity, brokerage commission rates are declining, with the average commission rate in Shanghai at 0.201‰, down 8.2% year-on-year [8] Strategic Shifts in Brokerage Services - Brokerages are transitioning from a focus on transaction-based services to value-added services, aiming to meet the needs of new investors who are more sensitive to commission rates [9] - Many brokerages are leveraging AI tools to provide personalized investment advice and enhance customer engagement, reflecting a shift towards wealth management services [9]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes optimism towards the domestic manufacturing supply chain and the cyclical recovery of analog chips in the semiconductor industry [3][5]. Group 1: Market Overview - In July 2025, the SW semiconductor index rose by 3.08%, underperforming the electronic industry by 3.51 percentage points and the CSI 300 index by 0.46 percentage points [3][10]. - The SW semiconductor index's PE (TTM) was 87.13x as of July 31, 2025, placing it at the 67.15 percentile since 2019 [3][14]. - The sub-sectors showing the highest growth included discrete devices (+8.21%), semiconductor equipment (+3.75%), and integrated circuit packaging and testing (+3.48%) [3][10]. Group 2: Industry Data Update - Global semiconductor sales in June 2025 reached $599.1 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 19.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5% [7][24]. - China's semiconductor sales were $172.4 billion in June, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 13.1% [7][24]. - The prices of DRAM and NAND Flash continued to rise, with DRAM contract prices increasing from $2.10 to $2.60 and NAND Flash prices from $2.92 to $3.12 in June [26][29]. Group 3: Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q2 2025, the proportion of semiconductor holdings in active funds was 10.1%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][23]. - The top five semiconductor heavyweights in active funds accounted for 37.1% of the total, slightly down from 37.9% in 2025 [19][21]. - Notable changes in the top twenty holdings included the addition of Naxin Micro and Si Rui Pu, replacing Feng Zha Technology and Ao Jie Technology [21][23].

Core Viewpoint - The performance of active equity funds has significantly outperformed passive index funds in 2023, but rebuilding investor trust will take time [4][5][8]. Group 1: Performance Comparison - As of the end of July, over 70% of active equity funds outperformed their benchmarks, a notable increase from less than 30% in the previous year [5]. - The average return of active equity funds this year is 14.05%, surpassing major indices like CSI 300 (3.58%) and CSI 500 (8.74%), with 92.33% of active funds achieving positive returns [7]. - In contrast, passive index funds have an average return of 10.94% this year, with 90.38% showing positive returns [7]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The innovative drug sector has emerged as a significant winner among active equity funds, with top-performing funds achieving returns exceeding 100% [8]. - Specific funds like Changcheng Medical Industry Selection and Zhongyin Hong Kong Stock Connect Medicine have led the pack with returns of 127.05% and others closely following [7]. Group 3: Redemption Pressure - Despite strong performance, active equity funds face increasing redemption pressure, with total assets decreasing by 366.62 billion and total shares down by 866.98 million in Q2 [9]. - Notably, funds with strong performance, such as Huatai-PineBridge Innovation Medicine, have seen significant inflows, indicating that individual fund performance can attract investor interest [9][11]. Group 4: Investor Behavior - The "anchoring effect" in behavioral finance suggests that past performance influences current investor decisions, leading many to hold onto funds that have not performed well in recent years [15]. - The growth of "fixed income plus" funds and multi-asset strategies reflects a shift in investor preference towards more stable products amid the challenges faced by active equity funds [15][16]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Historical trends indicate that active equity funds excel in identifying growth opportunities in emerging sectors, suggesting potential for future outperformance as market conditions evolve [18]. - The transition from a "star-driven" to a "return-driven" approach in the industry may pave the way for a resurgence in investor confidence in active equity funds [18].

Core Viewpoint - Longtu Photomask, a leading player in the semiconductor photomask sector, successfully listed on the STAR Market, with its closing price on the first day rising by 121.6% from the issue price, marking it as a notable company in the semiconductor supply chain [1]. Company Performance - In 2024, Longtu Photomask achieved a revenue of 247 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.92%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 91.83 million yuan, up 9.84%, indicating stable performance [6]. - The company has maintained a high level of R&D investment, with R&D expenses reaching 23.05 million yuan in 2024, a 14.25% increase year-on-year, and accounting for 10.40% of revenue [6]. - Longtu Photomask has established long-term stable partnerships with key clients such as SMIC, Silan Microelectronics, and BYD Semiconductor, enhancing its competitive edge through rich project experience and industry know-how [6]. Technological Advancements - Longtu Photomask has developed a comprehensive technical system covering CAM, lithography, and inspection, with 14 core process technologies, including industry-leading OPC compensation and PSM phase-shifting mask technologies [4]. - The company has made significant progress in its third-generation PSM products, with successful transitions from R&D to mass production for 90nm products and ongoing sample testing for 65nm products [8]. Market Outlook - The global semiconductor photomask market is projected to reach $6 billion by 2025, with China's market expected to approach 5 billion yuan, indicating a growing demand for photomasks [9]. - The shift of semiconductor chip production capacity to mainland China is becoming inevitable, with 15 out of 60 new 300mm wafer fabs being established in the region from 2020 to 2024, further driving the local semiconductor materials supply chain [9]. Industry Context - Currently, the domestic production rate of semiconductor photomasks in China is around 10%, with high-end photomasks at only 3%, highlighting the critical need for domestic production to address supply chain vulnerabilities [10]. - Government policies are increasingly supporting the semiconductor industry, with investments directed towards key materials like photomasks, which are essential for ensuring supply chain security [10]. - Longtu Photomask is positioned to benefit significantly from the domestic substitution trend, leveraging its technological and production capacity advantages to capture growth opportunities in the market [11].

Market Performance - As of July 28, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12% to close at 3597.94 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.44% to 11217.58 points, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.96% to 2362.60 points [1] - The overnight performance of U.S. markets showed the Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 0.14%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.33% [1] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 1.62%, with notable performances from companies like Micron Technology, which fell by 0.01%, ARM which increased by 0.74%, NXP Semiconductors which rose by 2.33%, Microchip Technology which gained 1.91%, and Applied Materials which increased by 2.47% [1] Industry Developments - Alibaba has launched a new open-source model, Wan2.2, which enhances video production efficiency by integrating cinematic elements and allows users to generate 5 seconds of high-definition video with over 60 controllable parameters [2] - Jinghe Integrated announced a capital increase of 1.195 billion yuan for Anhui Jingmei Optical Mask Co., with the company contributing 200 million yuan to acquire a 16.67% stake, aiming to enhance its optical mask business and supply chain stability [2] - The World Artificial Intelligence Conference concluded with 31 major projects signed, totaling over 15 billion yuan in investments, focusing on areas such as intelligent driving and robotics [3] AI and Semiconductor Insights - CITIC Securities noted that since the release of ChatGPT, large models are evolving towards greater efficiency and reliability, with the U.S. leading in powerful model exploration while Chinese companies excel in efficiency under computational constraints [4] - The year 2025 is projected to be a pivotal year for AI application acceleration, with OpenAI achieving an annual recurring revenue of 10 billion USD and Claude's monthly revenue growth exceeding 20% [4] - The AI computing power shift from training to inference is expected to create significant growth, with domestic trends towards self-controlled computing power becoming more pronounced [4] - The semiconductor materials ETF (562590) focuses on the upstream semiconductor sector, with 59% in semiconductor equipment and 24% in semiconductor materials, benefiting from the AI revolution and domestic substitution trends [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company Xingyuan Material (300568) has increased its stake in Ferrotec (6890.T) to over 5%, signaling its commitment to expanding into the semiconductor sector and establishing a second growth curve amid declining lithium battery separator prices [1][2]. Group 1: Company Strategy - Xingyuan Material is a leader in the lithium battery separator market, holding over 80% of the global market share, but faces pressure to diversify due to slowing growth in the new energy sector [2][3]. - The investment in Ferrotec, a company with strong vertical integration in semiconductor equipment and materials, aligns with Xingyuan's strategy to respond to national industrial security and ensure sustainable development [2][3]. Group 2: Market Position and Collaboration - Ferrotec holds approximately 60% market share in semiconductor equipment cleaning in China and has a significant presence in various segments globally, including a 35% share in thermoelectric semiconductor coolers [3][4]. - The partnership between Xingyuan Material and Ferrotec is expected to create synergies in technology and market access, enhancing both companies' capabilities in the semiconductor industry [5][7]. Group 3: Future Prospects - The semiconductor market presents vast opportunities, and Xingyuan Material's strategic investments, including a partnership with RSTechnologies, aim to strengthen its position in semiconductor materials [4][5]. - The establishment of a factory in Malaysia by Xingyuan Material, alongside Ferrotec's operations in the same region, provides a platform for collaborative growth in international markets [6][7].

Market Overview - On July 25, major A-share indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.33% to 3593 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.23% [1][2] - Over 2700 stocks in the market experienced declines [1] Sector Performance Declining Sectors - The Hainan Free Trade Zone and related stocks saw significant declines, with Shen Nong Agriculture and Xinlong Holdings dropping over 9% [4][5] - The hydropower concept stocks also faced major pullbacks, with Shen Shui Gui Yuan hitting the daily limit down [4][6] - The liquor sector experienced a downturn, with Gujing Gongjiu and Tianyoude Jiu falling nearly 3% [7] Gaining Sectors - The Sora concept led the market with gains, as Sai Group hit the daily limit up [8] - The semiconductor sector rose, with Hanwha Microelectronics increasing over 12% [10][11] - The film and television stocks saw a rise, with Shanghai Film gaining over 5% [12][13] Individual Stock Movements Notable Declines - Shen Nong Agriculture (code: 300189) fell by 9.69% to 4.94 [5] - Xinlong Holdings (code: 000222) decreased by 9.03% to 5.14 [5] - Deep Water Planning Institute (code: 301038) dropped by 20.01% to 26.70 [6] Notable Gains - Sai Group (code: 300781) surged by 19.99% to 44.95 [9] - Hanwha Microelectronics (code: 688256) rose by 12.17% to 673.30 [11] - Shanghai Film (code: 601595) increased by 5.65% to 33.07 [13] Industry Insights - The liquor industry is expected to face pressure in Q2 due to new regulations affecting government consumption [7] - The semiconductor sector is showing signs of recovery, with improved demand and technological advancements [11] - The film industry is experiencing a strong summer box office, with total ticket sales exceeding 4.5 billion yuan [13]