Core Insights - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 1.539 million barrels for the week ending July 25, contrary to analyst expectations of a decrease of 2.5 million barrels [1] - The previous week saw a decrease of 577,000 barrels in crude oil inventories [1] - API's Cushing crude oil inventory rose by 465,000 barrels, compared to a previous increase of 314,000 barrels [1] Inventory Changes - API gasoline inventories decreased by 1.739 million barrels, compared to a prior decrease of 1.228 million barrels [1] - Distillate inventories increased by 4.189 million barrels, up from a previous increase of 3.48 million barrels [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated widely. Despite a slight recovery during the week, the decline at the beginning and end of the week led to the lowest level in nearly three weeks, with the weekly line recording two consecutive weeks of decline. Considering the current market situation, the long - term expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attribute will continue to pressure oil prices. Even though inventories have slightly decreased recently, it is difficult to support oil prices due to the relatively pessimistic summer demand outlook. In terms of financial attributes, Powell remains cautious about interest rate cuts, and Trump's tariff policy may turn more aggressive, maintaining overall pressure. Politically, geopolitical situations around the world have not significantly cooled down, but the possibility of escalation is also relatively small, remaining volatile. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum and may continue to fluctuate weakly if there are no significant changes in various factors [63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although there was a slight rebound during the week, the decline at the weekend erased most of the gains. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate widely this week. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [485 - 525] yuan/barrel, mainly engage in short - spread operations within the range, and consider short - selling on rallies. However, due to geopolitical and other factors, the volatility may increase, so it is not advisable to chase the decline excessively [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices generally showed a wide - range fluctuating trend. During the week, they were affected by long - term interest rate cut expectations, tariff negotiation changes, and geopolitical situations, showing a slight recovery. However, at the weekend, most of the gains were given back, resulting in the lowest level in nearly three weeks, and the weekly line recorded two consecutive weeks of decline [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to set a new "reciprocal tariff rate" system before August 1, with tariff rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Some countries will face a maximum tariff of 50%, and Japan and some EU countries have reached a 15% tariff agreement. This indicates that the Trump administration's tariff policy is becoming more aggressive, which may lead to a more pessimistic market expectation for the results on August 1 [25]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectation**: The market has a high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, which may have an impact on oil prices [28]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: In the Middle East, the US - Hamas cease - fire negotiation has not made substantial progress, and France's plan to recognize Palestine may ease the situation. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the third round of talks did not achieve substantial results, and the relationship between Russia and other countries remains uncertain. Iran and the US will participate in a new round of nuclear negotiations, leaving some room for the Iranian nuclear issue [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is expected to maintain the current production increase plan at the meeting on Monday. Eight member countries will increase their total daily production by 548,000 barrels starting from August. Also, there are concerns about restricted Russian oil exports, which may alleviate the long - term expectation of a loose supply side to some extent [36]. - **Russian and Iranian Oil Exports**: Attention should be paid to the changes in Russian and Iranian oil exports, which may affect the global oil supply [37]. - **US Oil Production**: US oil production has slightly decreased [40]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Expectation**: The consumption expectation continues to cool down [43]. - **Manufacturing Industry**: The manufacturing industry remains in a contraction state, which may reduce the demand for oil [46]. - **Refined Oil Production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [51]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory**: US crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending July 18, which provides limited support for oil prices under the long - term pressure of a loose supply side [53]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: The decline in US gasoline inventories in the week ending July 18 may support gasoline prices, which will be transmitted to the domestic refined oil market and support the performance of fuel cracking [57]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum. If there are no significant changes in various factors, they may continue to fluctuate weakly [63].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 25 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心上移，其中 WTI9 月合约收盘上涨 0.78 美元至 66.03 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.20%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 0.67 美元至 69.18 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.98%。SC2509 以 507.1 元/桶收盘，上涨 2.8 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.56%。地缘政治紧张局势持续受关注。俄乌双方在伊 | | | | 斯坦布尔举行和谈讨论进一步交换战俘，但双方在停火条件和领 | | | | 导人会晤可能性上仍存在巨大分歧。另有两名行业消息人士称， | | | | 由于新规实施，外国油轮被暂时禁止在俄罗斯主要黑海港口装货， | | | 原油 | 这实际上停止了哈萨克斯坦通过部分由美国能源巨头持股的财团 | 震荡 | | | 出口石油。现货市场方面，亚太原油市场，9 月装拉布安原油的现 | | | | 货价差攀升，因为新加坡中质馏份油的炼油利润表现坚挺。9 月 | | | | ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/24 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/07/17 | 67.54 | 69.52 | 70.24 | - | 1.00 | -1.98 | 1.58 | 217.04 | 21.64 | 246.46 | 33.99 | | 2025/07/18 | 67.34 | 69.28 | 70.17 | - | 0.88 | -1.94 | 1.71 | 215.34 | 21.16 | 245.30 | 33.75 | | 2025/07/21 | 6 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint of the Report - The EIA weekly report shows that although the surface data is bullish due to the decline in crude oil and gasoline inventories, the terminal refined oil demand data is very weak, casting doubt on the sustainability of the high operating rate of US refineries, especially the gasoline demand data that should be at its peak within the year [7] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Main Data - As of July 18, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.169 million barrels to 418.993 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 1.6 million barrels; Cushing inventories increased by 455,000 barrels; strategic reserve inventories decreased by 200,000 barrels; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.738 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 900,000 barrels; distillate inventories increased by 2.931 million barrels, contrary to the estimated decrease of 1.1 million barrels [2][3] - US crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels per day to 13.273 million barrels per day; net imports decreased by 740,000 barrels per day to 2.121 million barrels per day; processing volume increased by 87,000 barrels per day to 16.936 million barrels per day [3] - US total crude oil chain inventories decreased by 5.353 million barrels; the four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for crude oil increased by 314,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 180,250 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillate decreased by 112,750 barrels per day; the four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased slightly [3] Report Review - Last week, US commercial crude oil inventories declined more than expected. US weekly crude oil production continued to decline, falling below the same period last year for the first time this year. Refinery operating rates remained high, increasing by 1.6% to 95.5%. The continuous rebound of US weekly crude oil exports also contributed to the decline in inventories [4] - Although the total terminal demand increased, mainly from the chemical sector, the apparent demand for gasoline and distillates, which the market is more concerned about, declined. The four - week smoothed gasoline demand has declined significantly for two consecutive weeks, and this week's demand curve has further deviated from the normal range, approaching the levels of the 2020 COVID - 19 year [6] - After the release of this week's report, oil prices had no obvious short - term direction, but rebounded slightly in the early morning due to the progress of trade negotiations between the US and the EU [7]

欧盟委员会发言人奥洛夫·吉尔23日表示，如果欧盟与美国的贸易谈判破裂，并且美国对欧盟商品征收 高关税，欧盟计划迅速对价值近1000亿欧元的美国商品加征关税。 新华财经纽约7月23日电（记者刘亚南）国际油价23日在隔夜市场下跌。当日早盘窄幅盘整，午后跌幅 显著收窄，收盘时国际油价均小幅下跌。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌6美分，收于每桶65.25美元，跌幅为 0.09%；9月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌8美分，收于每桶68.51美元，跌幅为0.12%。 新加坡原油分析机构Vanda Insights分析师Vandana Hari表示，虽然过去三个交易日油价下跌看起来已经 消退，但美国与日本达成贸易协议的消息预计不会给油价带来多大上涨动力。 值得注意的是，上周美国库欣地区商业原油库存量为2190万桶，环比增加50万桶；上周美国战略原油储 备规模为4.025亿桶，环比减少20万桶；上周美国日均原油产量为1327.3万桶，环比下降10.2万桶。 美国石油学会在22日晚些时候发布的数据显示，上周美国商业原油库存环比下降57.7万桶，汽油库存下 降120万桶，而蒸馏油库存则显著增加348 ...

Group 1 - The article indicates that the EIA crude oil inventory, Cushing crude oil inventory, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory data will be released shortly [1]

Core Insights - The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories by 577,000 barrels for the week ending July 18, compared to an increase of 839,000 barrels in the previous week [1] Inventory Data - U.S. API crude oil inventory decreased by 577,000 barrels [1] - The previous week's inventory showed an increase of 839,000 barrels [1]

Group 1 - The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes from the July monetary policy meeting at 09:30 [1] - A press conference regarding the foreign exchange income and expenditure data for the first half of the year will be held by the State Council Information Office at 15:00 [1] - Bank of England Governor Bailey and other officials will deliver speeches at 17:15 [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a welcome address at a regulatory meeting at 20:30 [1] - The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July will be released at 22:00 [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman will host a fireside chat at 01:00 the next day [1] - The last trading of NY crude oil August futures will be completed at 02:30 the next day [1] - API crude oil inventory data for the week ending July 18 will be released at 04:30 the next day [1]

Core Insights - Saudi Arabia's crude oil inventory decreased by 2.622 million barrels in May, reaching a total of 140.91 million barrels [1] Group 1 - The data is sourced from the Joint Oil Data Initiative (JODI) [1] - The decline in inventory indicates potential changes in supply dynamics within the oil market [1] - The current inventory level may influence global oil prices and trading strategies [1]