Group 1 - Goldman Sachs has raised its Q4 2026 oil price forecasts, increasing Brent and NY crude oil price expectations by $6 to $60 and $56 per barrel respectively, primarily due to lower-than-expected OECD crude oil inventories [1] - The adjustment reflects supply disruptions in January and the accumulation of excess supply in the form of sanctioned oil "floating at sea," with only 19% of the global inventory increase expected to be reflected in OECD commercial inventories, down from a previous estimate of 27% [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains its forecast of a global oil supply surplus of 2.3 million barrels per day for 2026, assuming no major supply disruptions and no peace agreement in Ukraine [1] Group 2 - Looking further ahead, Goldman Sachs expects oil prices to strengthen starting in 2027, with average prices for Brent and NY crude futures projected at $65 and $61 respectively, reaching $70 and $66 by December 2027, based on robust demand growth and slowing non-OPEC supply growth [2] - Given that OECD inventories have not significantly accumulated, Goldman Sachs anticipates that OPEC+ will begin to gradually increase production in the second quarter of 2026 [2]

Core Viewpoint - The oil market is experiencing volatility due to geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, with investors oscillating between expectations of diplomatic negotiations and potential military actions [4][5][19]. Market Dynamics - On the first trading day after the holiday, SC crude oil opened significantly higher, closing at 493.3 yuan per barrel, a rise of 6.18%. However, international oil prices have shown signs of high volatility, indicating a cautious market sentiment [4][16]. - The latest API data revealed a significant increase in US crude oil inventories, with over 10 million barrels added, contributing to pricing instability [5][17]. - The focus remains on geopolitical developments, particularly the upcoming US-Iran negotiations scheduled for February 26 in Geneva, which could impact oil prices significantly depending on the outcomes [4][19]. Geopolitical Factors - Iran's Foreign Minister expressed a desire to reach a fair agreement with the US quickly, emphasizing the importance of diplomatic solutions while maintaining Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology [19]. - The US has been increasing military presence around Iran, which adds to market uncertainties. Recent reports of logistical issues with the USS Ford aircraft carrier have raised doubts about the US's military resolve [4][5][19]. - The core disagreement in negotiations centers around uranium enrichment, with potential conflicts in the Middle East posing risks to oil supply security [20]. Shipping Costs - The cost of long-term charters for supertankers has surged to over $92,000 per day, the highest level recorded since 1988, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand from shipowners [21].

2026-02-24 関 货 有 限 公 司 陆地库存趋稳, 浮 仓大幅攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 图表 9:俄罗斯原油库存 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 据Kpler数据，2月22日当周，全球全口径（含在途）原油库存相对稳定，全球陆上原油库存小幅回落，但浮仓库存大幅攀升。分地区看，印度 及俄罗斯原油库存增加,中国、中东、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 十四 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 - 2025 · 2024 - 2023 - 2022 3600000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 345000 120000 3400000 900000 3350000 33000000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原流 图表 4:全球陆地+海上(含 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2023 - 20 ...

研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 据Kpler数据，2月22日当周，全球全口径（含在途）原油库存相对稳定，全球陆上原油库存小幅回落，但浮仓库存大幅攀升。分地区看，印度 及俄罗斯原油库存增加,中国、中东、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 2026-02-24 関 货 有 限 公 司 陆地库存趋稳, 浮 仓大幅攀升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 s Company Limited 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 图表 8:欧洲原油库存 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 十四 2026 - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 2026 - 2025 · 2024 - 2023 - 2022 3600000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 345000 120000 3400000 900000 3350000 33000000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究 图表 3:全球陆地+浮仓原流 图表 4:全球陆地+海上(含 2024 - 2023 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report highlights the fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing negotiations between the US and Iran, which have created mixed signals in the market. The report notes that oil prices have experienced a decline, with Brent and WTI prices recorded at $67.75 and $62.89 per barrel, respectively, as of February 13, 2026 [2][9] - The report indicates an increase in US crude oil production, reaching 13.713 million barrels per day, which is an increase of 498,000 barrels per day from the previous week. However, the number of active drilling rigs in the US has decreased by 3 to 409 rigs [33][42] - The report also mentions that US crude oil inventories have risen by 8.44 million barrels, marking a 1.02% increase, with commercial crude oil stocks increasing by 8.53 million barrels, a 2.03% rise [46] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - As of February 13, 2026, Brent crude futures settled at $67.75 per barrel, down $0.30 (-0.44%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $62.89 per barrel, down $0.66 (-1.04%) [2][23] Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms is 368, a decrease of 2 from the previous week, while the number of floating drilling platforms is 131, also down by 1 [26] Crude Oil Supply - US crude oil production is reported at 13.713 million barrels per day, an increase of 498,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs is 409, down by 3 [33] Crude Oil Demand - US refinery crude oil processing volume is 16 million barrels per day, a decrease of 29,000 barrels per day from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.40%, down 1.1 percentage points [45] Crude Oil Inventory - Total US crude oil inventory stands at 844 million barrels, with a 1.02% increase of 8.529 million barrels from the previous week. Commercial crude oil inventory increased by 8.53 million barrels, a 2.03% rise [46] Related Companies - The report mentions several related companies, including China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that geopolitical tensions and inventory risks have reversed the market consensus on falling oil prices, with recent oil price movements being primarily driven by emotional trading [1][2] - Extreme winter weather in the U.S. has increased heating demand and disrupted oil production and refining, leading to a substantial contraction in physical oil supply, thus supporting international oil prices [1] - Recent supply disruptions, such as the interruption of operations at the Caspian pipeline and power outages at Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field, have also provided support for international oil prices [1] Group 2 - The U.S.-Iran negotiations have introduced volatility in oil prices, with initial diplomatic talks potentially seen as bearish, but subsequent news of possible breakdowns in talks led to a surge in oil prices [2] - The ongoing geopolitical struggle between the U.S. and Iran is expected to continue affecting international oil prices due to significant differences in their core demands [2] - The shipping situation in the Strait of Hormuz is critical, as approximately 20% to 30% of global oil maritime trade passes through this route, and any disruption could significantly impact global oil supply and prices [3] Group 3 - The current geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S.-Iran situation, are the main focus, while other regional conflicts have temporarily subsided [4] - The U.S. has historically acted to suppress oil prices to alleviate inflation and weaken Russia's position in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, but this influence is diminishing [4][5] - As the midterm elections approach, the U.S. may have less motivation to suppress oil prices, potentially leading to a rebound in oil prices [5] Group 4 - Recent analyses suggest that the oil market is experiencing a shift, with several institutions raising their oil price forecasts, indicating a potential upward trend in oil prices [5] - The first and second quarters typically see a strengthening trend in oil prices due to policy implementations and geopolitical events, although this calendar effect should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions [6] - The current upward trend in oil prices is supported by ongoing geopolitical conflicts and potential adjustments in OPEC policies, with expectations of a rebound in oil prices as high-cost production begins to exit the market [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 13.4 million barrels for the previous week [1] Group 2 - The data was released on February 20, indicating significant changes in oil inventory levels [1] - The increase in inventory may have implications for oil prices and market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Geopolitical uncertainties between the US and Iran continue to influence oil prices, with a recent increase in oil price levels observed, particularly on February 10, where the SC2604 contract saw a rise of over 1% [3][6]. Geopolitical Factors - The geopolitical situation is identified as a core factor affecting short-term fluctuations in oil prices. The US has issued new guidelines for ships flying the American flag to avoid Iranian territorial waters and to refuse boarding by Iranian military forces [4][7]. - The OPEC oil production in January decreased to 28.34 million barrels per day, a reduction of 60,000 barrels per day from December, with Nigeria experiencing the largest decline. This decrease offsets production increases from some member countries, including Venezuela [4][7]. EU Sanctions - The European Union has proposed expanding sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, marking the first time sanctions target third-country ports. The proposal includes listing the Kulevi port in Georgia and the Karimun port in Indonesia, prohibiting EU companies and individuals from trading with these ports [4][7]. Market Implications - The combination of fluctuating geopolitical factors and EU sanctions creates ongoing uncertainty in the supply chain, suggesting that oil prices are likely to experience continued volatility in the short term [4][7].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that due to the Middle - East tensions increasing the risk premium, crude oil prices have risen for two consecutive days. The geopolitical tensions this year have overshadowed concerns about global supply surplus. The market will get insights from a series of data this week, starting with the EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report. The short - term oil prices are still affected by the Iran situation, and the global crude oil supply - demand fundamentals in the first and second quarters remain in a surplus state, not supporting high valuations [3][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily News - Middle - East tensions have pushed up the risk premium, causing oil prices to rise for two consecutive days. WTI crude oil has traded above $64 per barrel after a 1.7% increase in the past two trading days, and Brent crude oil has closed above $69. The US warned that US - flagged vessels should stay away from Iranian waters when passing through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - The US Maritime Administration's warning was related to an incident on February 3 when a US - flagged oil tanker was approached by Iranian gunboats in the Strait of Hormuz [4]. - Venezuelan crude oil production has approached 1 million barrels per day after returning to the pre - cut level [4]. - US sanctions have led to a continuous decline in Russian crude oil production. In January, Russia's average daily crude oil production was 9.28 million barrels, 46,000 barrels per day less than in December and nearly 300,000 barrels per day lower than the quota in the OPEC+ agreement. The amount of Russian oil stored on tankers has been increasing [5]. 3.2 Inventory - This week, crude oil has fluctuated at a high level due to the Iran situation, with the month - spread falling and the North Sea Brent basis dropping to $1.005 per barrel. The US and Iran held a six - hour nuclear negotiation on Friday, with Iran calling it a good start. A second round of negotiations is expected in the coming days. - Globally, the total petroleum inventory has decreased. In the US, commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.455 million barrels and refined oil inventory decreased by 5.553 million barrels. Saudi Arabia adjusted the official selling prices of Arabian light crude oil for March. - In Singapore, all refined oil products have seen inventory accumulation. In ARA, crude oil inventory has decreased, while refined oil products, diesel, and gasoline have seen inventory accumulation. In China, both gasoline and diesel inventories have increased [5]. 3.3 EIA Report - For the week ending January 30, US crude oil exports decreased by 542,000 barrels per day to 4.047 million barrels per day [15]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 481,000 barrels to 13.215 million barrels per day [15]. - Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a decrease of 0.82% [15]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 20.802 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.94% [15]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, an increase of 0.05% [15]. - US imports of commercial crude oil (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.201 million barrels per day, an increase of 559,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [15].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As of the week of February 8, the global full - caliber (including in - transit) crude oil inventory declined, showing an overall volatile trend since the beginning of the year. The on - land crude oil inventory increased, mainly driven by inventory growth in China and the Middle East, while inventories in India, Europe, and Russia decreased. European inventory has declined significantly in the past two weeks, and Middle East inventory has continued its upward trend since the beginning of the year [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalog - **Global Crude Oil Inventory**: The global full - caliber (including in - transit) inventory declined in the week of February 8, and the on - land inventory increased, with an overall volatile trend since the beginning of the year [2] - **Regional Crude Oil Inventory**: - **China and Middle East**: Inventory increased, driving the rise of global on - land crude oil inventory [2] - **India, Europe, and Russia**: Inventory declined, with a significant decline in European inventory in the past two weeks [2]