中信期货 36 33 1300 30 1250 27 24 1200 21 1150 18 1100 15 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 美国原油产量(万桶/日) 2023 2024 2022 2025 =2026 1500 1400 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 EIA周度数据:炼厂加速降负,汽柴累库放缓 | 2026年1月29日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | F03141405 | 有风险,投资需谨慎。 | | | 投资咨询号 ...

1月29日，国内期市能化板块多数飘红。其中，原油期货主力合约开盘报462.1元/桶，今日盘中高位震 荡运行；截至午间收盘，原油主力最高触及472.2元，下方探低461.1元，涨幅达3.49%。 目前来看，原油行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于原油后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 混沌天成期货分析称，OPEC+维持产量不变，地缘政治扰动大，美国寒潮影响页岩油产量；需求端， 美国经济韧性强，美元走弱利好非美需求；EIA数据显示原油库存下降，但整体上半年基本面格局仍偏 空，短期市场热度下降导致价格震荡。 中财期货表示，EIA商业原油库存超预期去库，同时伊朗局势持续发酵。预计短期内原油维持震荡偏强 走势。 光大期货指出，伊朗原油供应面临风险推升油价，美国原油库存下降超预期，但成品油库存增加抵消利 好，美元指数反弹，全球经济重构导致避险资产受追捧，预计油价延续震荡偏强。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月28日，美国能源信息署(EIA)数据显示，美国上周原油库存减少229.5万桶，市场预估 为增加184.8万桶。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price adjustment cycle indicates an expected increase of 140 yuan per ton, translating to a rise of 0.11-0.13 yuan per liter, surpassing the previous day's forecast by 20 yuan per ton, leading to a significant increase in oil prices [1]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have surged again, influenced by winter storms affecting U.S. oil production and geopolitical instability, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions [4]. - As of the latest data, U.S. crude oil prices rose by 2.84% to $62.65 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 2.61% to $66.53 per barrel [4]. - The latest API report indicated a decrease of 247,000 barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories, contrary to market expectations of an increase of 1.45 million barrels, further supporting the rise in international oil prices [4]. Group 2: Regional Fuel Prices - The expected fuel prices in various regions are as follows: - Beijing: 92 gasoline at 6.77, 95 gasoline at 7.21, 98 gasoline at 8.71, and 0 diesel at 6.45 [5]. - Shanghai: 92 gasoline at 6.74, 95 gasoline at 7.17, 98 gasoline at 9.17, and 0 diesel at 6.39 [5]. - Jiangsu: 92 gasoline at 6.75, 95 gasoline at 7.18, 98 gasoline at 9.24, and 0 diesel at 6.37 [5]. - Other regions show similar pricing trends, with slight variations across different provinces [5][6].

册货有限公司 中东库存持续回升 -Kpler原油库存数据报告 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 Kp ler数据显示: 1月25日当周，全球陆地及浮仓库存变动较小,全口径（含在途）库存回落，即在途船货数量减少。陆上库存分区域看,中 国、俄罗斯、中东库存回升,其中中东库存开年以来自底部持续回升,印度、欧洲库存回落。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 图表 2:全球原油浮仓 图表 1:全球陆上原油库存 - 2023 - 2022 2026 · - 2025 - 2024 - 2023 - 2022 - 2025 -- 2024 手段 千瓶 3600000 2400000 210000 3550000 180000 35000000 150000 3450000 120000 34000000 90000 3350000 3300000 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研 图表 3:全球陆塑+学仓展油 2023 - 2022 2023 - 2022 千橙 千種 3800000 4900000 0000000 3700000 47 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1] Core Insights - As of January 23, 2026, international oil prices have seen a slight increase due to multiple favorable factors, including temporary production halts in Kazakhstan, an upward revision of global economic growth forecasts, the cancellation of tariffs on eight European countries by Trump, and extreme cold weather potentially affecting supply and demand [2][9] - Brent and WTI crude oil prices were reported at $65.07 and $61.07 per barrel, respectively, marking increases of 1.47% and 2.92% from the previous week [2][20] - The oil and petrochemical sector outperformed, with a 7.71% increase, while the broader Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell by 0.62% [10][13] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $65.07 per barrel, up $0.94 (+1.47%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $61.07 per barrel, an increase of $1.73 (+2.92%) [2][20] Offshore Drilling Services - As of January 19, 2026, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 376, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms increased by 3 to a total of 133 [29] Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.732 million barrels per day as of January 16, 2026, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week [39] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. increased by 1 to 411 as of January 23, 2026 [39] Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume was 16.604 million barrels per day as of January 16, 2026, down by 354,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 93.30%, a decrease of 2.0 percentage points [47] Oil Inventory - As of January 16, 2026, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 841 million barrels, an increase of 4.408 million barrels (+0.53%) from the previous week [48] Related Stocks - Key stocks in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), PetroChina, Sinopec, and China Oilfield Services [3]

Group 1 - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Group 2 - The EIA data shows that the inventory pressure in the US energy market continues, and the weekly data is bearish [4] Group 3 EIA Weekly Data Overview - US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3.602 million barrels in the week ending January 16, 2026 [4] - The refinery utilization rate dropped seasonally from 95.3% to 93.3% but remained at a high level for the same period [4] - Crude oil processing volume decreased by 354,000 barrels per day, which was the main driver of crude oil inventory accumulation [4] - Net crude oil exports increased by 27,000 barrels per day, with both imports and exports declining [4] - The estimated weekly crude oil production was revised down by 21,000 barrels per day [4] Inventory and Demand Data Details | Category | Unit | Current Value | Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US commercial crude oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | - 360.2 | △ 339.1 | | US Cushing crude oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | △ 147.8 | - 74.5 | | US strategic petroleum reserve change | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 80.6 | △ 21.4 | | US gasoline inventory change | 10,000 barrels | △ 597.7 | ▲ 897.7 | | US diesel inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 334.8 | - 2.9 | | US jet fuel inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▼ - 78.8 | ▼ - 89.2 | | US fuel oil inventory change | 10,000 barrels | ▼ - 58.5 | ▲ 173.5 | | US crude oil and petroleum product inventory change (excluding SPR) | 10,000 barrels | ▲ 753.8 | 4 621 | | US crude oil production | 10,000 barrels per day | 1373.2 | 1375.3 | | US refined oil apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 2017.2 | 2100.9 | | US gasoline apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 783.4 | 830.4 | | US diesel apparent demand | 10,000 barrels per day | 352.4 | 409.6 | | US crude oil imports | 10,000 barrels per day | 644.7 | 709.2 | | US crude oil exports | 10,000 barrels per day | 368.8 | 430.6 | | US refinery crude oil processing volume | 10,000 barrels per day | 1660.4 | 1695.8 | | US refinery utilization rate | % | 93.3 | 95.3 | [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, oil prices fluctuated at high levels due to geopolitical events. Although Trump's stance has become more rational, the risk of military intervention cannot be completely ruled out [4]. - From a fundamental perspective, global onshore oil inventories are accumulating in the off - season, while the total waterborne inventories have decreased month - on - month but are higher year - on - year. The North Sea market has tightened recently, the Dubai market is loose, and the WTI and Brent markets are decoupled [4]. - In terms of refinery profits, the sharp rise in European natural gas has strengthened the cracking of European diesel. The overall profits of European and American refineries are under downward pressure due to the strengthening of crude oil prices. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, and the absolute price center in the first quarter will remain at a high level [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **International Crude Oil**: From January 14 to January 20, 2026, BRENT increased by $0.98, DUBAI decreased by $0.37, and the BRENT 1 - 2 month spread increased by $0.01, while the DUBAI - BRT (EFS) decreased by $0.02 [3]. - **Domestic Crude Oil and Related Products**: From January 14 to January 20, SC decreased by $0.40, OMAN decreased by $0.37, and the SC - BRT decreased by $1.00. Domestic gasoline prices decreased by 40 yuan, and domestic diesel prices decreased by 42 yuan [3]. - **Other Products**: From January 14 to January 20, the Singapore 380CST fuel oil decreased by $11.19, the main contract of SHFE FU decreased by 26 yuan, and the main contract of SHFE BU decreased by 3 yuan [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iran's Armed Forces spokesman stated that any hostile and provocative actions will be firmly countered [3]. - All ports in Libya's Oil Crescent are shut down due to bad weather [3]. - Venezuela's National Assembly is expected to discuss the oil law on Thursday [3]. 3.3 Inventory - In the week of January 9, US crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day [4]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day [4]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year [4]. - US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [4]. - US imports of commercial crude oil excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [4]. - US EIA gasoline inventories for the week ending January 9 were 8.977 million barrels, expected to be 3.565 million barrels, and the previous value was 7.702 million barrels [4]. - US EIA refined oil inventories for the week ending January 9 were - 29,000 barrels, expected to be 512,000 barrels, and the previous value was 5.594 million barrels [4].

美国能源信息管理局（EIA）库存报告还显示了上周有以下变动： 汽油库存增加897.7万桶，预估为增加200万桶； 馏分油库存减少2.9万桶，预估为减少66.2万桶； 库欣原油库存增加74.5万桶； 原油进口量增加75.3万桶/日； 原油产量减少5.8万桶/日。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 原油进口量增加75.3万桶/日； 原油产量减少5.8万桶/日。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：李桐 美国能源信息管理局（EIA）库存报告还显示了上周有以下变动： 汽油库存增加897.7万桶，预估为增加200万桶； 馏分油库存减少2.9万桶，预估为减少66.2万桶； 库欣原油库存增加74.5万桶； 责任编辑：李桐 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.928, while spot gold opened at $4597.42 per ounce and is currently around $4594.97 per ounce. Gold T+D is trading at approximately 1026.30 CNY per gram, and the Shanghai gold main contract is at about 1028.86 CNY per gram [1] - On the previous trading day, the US dollar index fell by 0.16% to 98.896, while spot gold rose by 1.97% to $4597.94 per ounce. Other precious metals also saw gains: spot silver increased by 6.51% to $85.16 per ounce, platinum rose by 3.03% to $2337.30 per ounce, and palladium gained 1.80% to $1851.00 per ounce [1] Inventory Data - As of January 12, COMEX gold inventory remains unchanged at 1129.43 tons, while COMEX silver inventory decreased by 70.15 tons to 13607.32 tons [2] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.24 tons to 1070.80 tons, and SLV silver ETF holdings rose by 39.47 tons to 16347.95 tons on the same date [2] - The payment direction for deferred compensation fees indicates that for Au(t+d), shorts pay longs, and for Ag(t+d), shorts also pay longs [2] Economic Events - Key economic data to be released includes Japan's trade balance for November, the US NFIB small business optimism index for December, and various CPI metrics for December, including the unadjusted and seasonally adjusted core CPI [4] - The Federal Reserve's Musalem is scheduled to speak, and the EIA will release its monthly short-term energy outlook report [5]