Group 1: Core View - The weekly EIA data shows that refinery operations declined, and the total inventory pressure remains high. The increase in commercial crude oil inventory, net crude oil exports, and the decrease in crude oil processing volume all had a significant impact on inventory. The domestic focus is on production resilience and the decline in refinery operating rates. The single - week crude oil production estimate increased by 0.7 million barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate dropped from 92.4% to 85.7%, likely due to seasonal maintenance and a refinery accident in California. Gasoline and diesel showed seasonal inventory declines, while the total inventory of crude oil and petroleum products continued to rise, with the single - week data being bearish [2][4]. Group 2: Data Summary Inventory Data - US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.524 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 3.715 million barrels [4][5]. - US Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 0.703 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 0.763 million barrels [5]. - US strategic petroleum inventory increased by 0.76 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 0.285 million barrels [5]. - US gasoline inventory decreased by 0.267 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 1.601 million barrels [5]. - US diesel inventory decreased by 4.529 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 2.018 million barrels [5]. - US jet fuel inventory increased by 0.146 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 0.071 million barrels [5]. - US fuel oil inventory increased by 0.255 million barrels, and the previous value was an increase of 0.541 million barrels [5]. - The inventory change of US crude oil and petroleum products (excluding SPR) increased by 1.663 million barrels, and the previous value was a decrease of 1.23 million barrels [5]. Production and Demand Data - US crude oil production was 13.636 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 13.629 million barrels per day [5]. - US refined oil apparent demand was 19.726 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 21.99 million barrels per day [5]. - US gasoline apparent demand was 8.455 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 8.919 million barrels per day [5]. - US diesel apparent demand was 4.233 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 4.346 million barrels per day [5]. Trade and Processing Data - US crude oil imports were 5.525 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 6.403 million barrels per day [5]. - US crude oil exports were 4.466 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 3.59 million barrels per day [5]. - US refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.13 million barrels per day, and the previous value was 16.297 million barrels per day [5]. - US refinery operating rate was 85.7%, and the previous value was 92.4% [5].

Core Viewpoint - Oil futures are experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract reported at 433.6 yuan per barrel, a significant drop of 2.17% [1] News Summary - Egypt has raised gasoline prices, with 80-octane gasoline now at 17.75 Egyptian pounds per liter, 92-octane at 19.25 pounds, 95-octane at 21 pounds, and diesel at 17.5 pounds [2] - Indian refiners have purchased their first batch of Guyanese crude oil from ExxonMobil for delivery between December and January [2] - U.S. officials indicated productive discussions with India, which has reduced its oil imports from Russia by 50% [2] Institutional Perspectives - Dongwu Futures notes that oil prices are declining due to a potential breakthrough in Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with Trump indicating a summit with Putin to discuss ending the conflict. If Russian energy sanctions are lifted, it could significantly impact Western energy markets, particularly the currently tight diesel market. The latest EIA report showed a much larger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, with refinery utilization rates indicating deepening autumn maintenance. The firm maintains a bearish long-term outlook but acknowledges the possibility of a return of geopolitical risk premiums in the short term [3] - Yide Futures attributes the drop in oil prices to easing geopolitical tensions, with Trump planning a summit with Putin to discuss the end of the Russia-Ukraine war, which introduces uncertainty into global energy supply. The recent EIA inventory report revealed a substantial increase in U.S. crude oil inventories, primarily due to a significant decline in refinery utilization rates as they enter the autumn maintenance season. U.S. production has reached a record high of 13.636 million barrels per day. The potential cessation of Russian oil imports by India is expected to reshape oil flows and increase supply demand in other regions. Data shows a continued decline in monthly spreads, with mixed movements in crack spreads, and the market remains undervalued [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market is gradually realizing the "weak reality" market expectation. Short - term logic is dominated by negative factors, with low - level fluctuations expected for short - term crude oil prices. SC is weaker than the external market due to domestic warehouse receipt pressure and weak demand. If OPEC+ further signals an increase in production and US inventories continue to accumulate, the oil price center may continue to decline [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On October 15, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract dropped from 448.6 yuan/barrel to 443.7 yuan/barrel, a 1.09% decline, showing a five - day consecutive decline. WTI and Brent prices remained stable at 58.59 dollars/barrel and 62.28 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread narrowed from 0.54 dollars/barrel to 0, and the SC - WTI spread decreased from 4.23 dollars/barrel to 3.69 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened from - 1.5 yuan/barrel to - 3.8 yuan/barrel, indicating concerns about future supply pressure. Crude oil - related warehouse receipts remained unchanged, suggesting no significant change in short - term delivery willingness [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain**: - **Supply**: Libya's oil revenue in the first nine months reached 7.94 billion Libyan dinars, indicating continued production recovery. Pemex in Mexico reached a salary - increase agreement with the union, potentially reducing production interruption risks. However, UK sanctions on Russian oil companies may intensify geopolitical supply disruptions [3]. - **Demand**: US API data showed an unexpected 2.99 - million - barrel increase in gasoline inventory (expected a decrease of 0.838 million barrels), reflecting weak terminal fuel demand. Refined oil inventory decreased more than expected (- 4.79 million barrels) due to industrial demand support. India's commitment to stop importing Russian oil may suppress Asian market sentiment in the short term, but actual implementation will take time [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 7.36 million barrels, the largest weekly increase since February 2025, and Cushing's inventory pressure rose, indicating a loose supply - demand situation in the US. China's SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained at a high level of 5.4 million barrels, strengthening the expectation of inventory accumulation in the Asian market [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: - **Futures Prices**: On October 15, 2025, the SC price dropped to 443.70 yuan/barrel, a 1.09% decline; WTI dropped to 58.30 dollars/barrel, a 0.49% decline; Brent rose to 62.47 dollars/barrel, a 0.31% increase. - **Spot Prices**: OPEC's basket price remained unchanged; Brent, Dubai, and ESPO prices increased, while Oman, Victory, and Duri prices decreased. - **Spreads**: SC - Brent, SC - WTI spreads decreased, while Brent - WTI spread increased. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened significantly. - **Other Assets**: The US dollar index decreased, the S&P 500 increased, the DAX index decreased, and the RMB exchange rate decreased slightly. - **Inventory and Operation**: US commercial crude oil inventory, strategic reserve inventory, and API inventory increased, while Cushing's inventory decreased. The US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [6]. - **Fuel Oil**: - **Futures Prices**: FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil prices decreased. - **Spot Prices**: Most fuel oil spot prices remained stable, with some increasing slightly and the Russian M100 arrival price decreasing. - **Spreads**: Singapore and China's high - low sulfur spreads, LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S), and FU - Singapore 380CST spreads decreased. - **Platts and Inventory**: Platts (380CST) and Platts (180CST) prices decreased, and Singapore's inventory decreased [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Supply**: US API crude oil imports from October 4 - 10 decreased. Mexico's Pemex reached a 4.5% salary - increase agreement with the union. Libya's oil revenue in the first nine months reached 7.94 billion Libyan dinars [8][9]. - **Demand**: India's oil import value in September reached 1.4 billion dollars [10]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory from October 4 - 10 increased by 7.36 million barrels, the largest increase since February 7, 2025. API refined oil inventory decreased more than expected, and API gasoline inventory increased unexpectedly. Crude oil and fuel - related warehouse receipts remained mostly unchanged [11]. - **Market Information**: India promised to stop importing Russian oil, but implementation will take time. US Bank warned that Brent oil prices may fall below $50. The UK will impose sanctions on Russian oil companies. OPEC Secretary - General predicted that oil will still account for 30% of the global energy structure by 2050 [12]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to WTI, Brent, and SC prices and spreads, US and global oil production, refinery operating rates, and fuel oil prices and inventories [15][17][19] etc.

2025-10-13 全口径库存持续 攀升 Kpler 原油库存数据报 告 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 印度原油库存 研究员:李云旭 从业资格号 F03141405 投资咨询号 Z0021671 10月12日当周，全球原油陆上库存、浮仓库存、全口径（含在途）库存均 走高,其中全口径(含在途)库存为连续第五周攀升,已处近五年同期最高 位。陆上库存分区域来看,中国库存有所下降,但印度、欧洲、俄罗斯、中东 库存均有回升。 风险提示:Kpler对数据进行回溯调整。 200000 3600000 150000 1000000 50000 3300000 2115 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 全球陆地+浮仓原油库存 - 2023 - 2022 - 2024 - 于 2025 2021 4050000 40000000 3900000 38000000 3700000 3600000 35000000 3400000 第1周 第9周 第17周 第41层 第49周 第25周 電影品 资料来源:Kpler 中信期货研究所 全球陆地+海上(含在途) 原油库存 2023 2022 - 2024 - 2025 2 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses various economic indicators and events scheduled for October, including employment data and consumer confidence indices in the US and Eurozone [2][3] - Key dates include the release of the US September ADP employment numbers and the unemployment rate, as well as the Eurozone's August unemployment rate [2] - The article highlights the importance of the US non-farm payroll data and the consumer confidence index for October, which are critical for assessing economic health [3] Group 2 - The article mentions the upcoming release of China's September industrial profits and the significance of these figures for understanding the country's economic performance [3] - It also notes the scheduled announcements from central banks, including the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank, which could impact market expectations [3] - The article emphasizes the relevance of oil inventory data and production numbers, which are crucial for the energy sector [2][3]

每经AI快讯，10月1日，美国至9月26日当周API原油库存减少367.4万桶，前值减少382.1万桶。 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 9 月 26 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EIA report is a mixed bag. Real - time indicators are relatively positive, with inventories of crude oil and refined products all decreasing and the decline in refinery operating rate being limited. However, leading indicators are persistently weak, with terminal demand remaining poor. The lackluster performance of distillates during the peak season may speed up autumn maintenance, offsetting the positive impact of inventory data. Despite the short - term upward trend in oil prices after the report release, the upward potential of oil prices is limited due to weak forward - looking indicators [12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory Data - As of September 19, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 414.754 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 607,000 barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 235,000 barrels. Cushing inventory increased by 177,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 230,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.081 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 200,000 barrels, and distillate inventory decreased by 1.685 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 500,000 barrels. The total inventory of the U.S. crude oil chain decreased by 244,000 barrels [2][3] Production, Import, and Processing Data - U.S. crude oil production increased by 19,000 barrels per day to 13.501 million barrels per day. Crude oil net imports increased by 1.596 million barrels per day to 2.011 million barrels per day. Crude oil processing volume increased by 52,000 barrels per day to 16.476 million barrels per day. The refinery operating rate decreased by 0.3% week - on - week to 93.0% [3] Terminal Demand Data - The four - week smoothed terminal apparent demand for U.S. crude oil decreased by 205,250 barrels per day to 20.46575 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for gasoline decreased by 70,250 barrels per day to 8.8485 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for distillates decreased by 100,750 barrels per day to 3.626 million barrels per day. The four - week smoothed apparent demand for jet fuel decreased by 57,500 barrels per day to 1.64525 million barrels per day. Terminal demand for refined products remains poor [3][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to increased market concerns about supply tightening, especially the return of geopolitical risk premiums. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities by Ukraine led to concerns about supply disruptions, verified by the strengthening of diesel crack spreads and traders' bets on price increases. Additionally, the unexpected decline in US crude inventories and lower gasoline and distillate inventories supported the demand side. The short - term support for oil prices has increased, but marginal supply increments will limit the rebound amplitude. It is recommended to conduct unilateral band operations, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to expand after volatility increases [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply is expected to be abundant due to negative short - term operations and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. Demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants' commissioning is delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. PXN is expected to compress, but short - term prices may be supported by geopolitical events and pre - holiday demand. Strategies include short - term long on PX11 or shorting after a rebound [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to shrink as new plant commissioning is delayed and maintenance plans are in place. Pre - holiday restocking demand supports the short - term basis, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Absolute prices may be supported by geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term long on TA or shorting after a rebound, and rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Short - term imports are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decline. However, the terminal market is weak, and the basis fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, supply will increase as new plants start up and demand seasonally declines, leading to inventory accumulation. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 [7]. - **Short Fiber**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the peak season but with limited new orders. Prices are supported at low levels but lack upward momentum, following raw material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 [7]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply in September is lower than expected due to typhoons, and low prices and pre - holiday restocking demand support prices and processing fees. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - Urea futures rebounded on September 24 due to expectations of short - term supply contraction and technical repair. Shanxi Tianze plans to shut down some large - scale plants on October 7, which supports market sentiment. Although spot demand is weak, export orders provide some support [14][16]. Methanol - This week, both port and inland inventories decreased, partly due to typhoons in South China. Supply in the inland area is at a high level, and although unplanned maintenance has increased, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inventory pattern in the inland area is healthy, supporting prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral. The disk fluctuates between trading the reality of high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the long - term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to remain high as some plants resume production or start producing, and there are maintenance plans. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, and there are many maintenance plans for downstream plants in September - October. However, continuous de - stocking at ports may provide some support. Prices are driven by geopolitical and macro factors in the short - term. Strategies include BZ2603 following styrene and crude oil fluctuations [23]. - **Styrene**: Downstream demand is fair due to peak - season demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it is mainly for rigid needs. Supply is expected to decrease as overseas plants are under maintenance and exports are expected to increase. Port inventories are accumulating, pressuring prices. Strategies include shorting EB11 on price rebounds and widening the spread of EB11 - BZ11 [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The market is weak. Supply is high, and the decline in alumina prices has squeezed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Inventory in North China is rising, while in East China, it is falling due to tight supply and non - aluminum rigid demand. In Shandong, prices may continue to decline before the National Day holiday. Short - selling positions can be held [27]. - **PVC**: The market is also weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is expected to increase as many plants finish maintenance next week. Demand is limited as downstream product start - up rates are low, and buyers are resistant to high prices. Cost support is provided by rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the September - October peak season [27]. Polyolefins - **PP**: Production has decreased recently due to heavy losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and lower inventory. - **PE**: Maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and the supply rhythm and import offers need to be monitored. There is pressure on inventory accumulation for the 01 contract [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 25, Brent rose 2.48% to $69.31/barrel, WTI fell 0.38% to $64.74/barrel, and SC fell 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending September 19, 2025, US crude production increased to 1350.1万桶/日, refinery utilization rate decreased to 93%, commercial crude inventory decreased by 60.7万桶, and gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) rose to $69.31/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose to $606/ton, etc. [7]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX rose to $812/ton, PX - naphtha spread decreased to 120 [7]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA East - China spot price rose to 4525 yuan/ton, TA01 - TA05 spread decreased [7]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG port inventory decreased to 700,000 tons, and the arrival forecast decreased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: POY150/48 price decreased to 6600 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip price rose to 5804 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - **Futures**: On September 24, the 01 contract rose 0.90% to 1673 yuan/ton, the 05 contract rose 0.64% to 1724 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rose 0.63% to 1745 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Shandong (small - particle) urea price remained at 1610 yuan/ton, and FOB China (small - particle) remained at $418/ton [15]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily production increased to 19.56 million tons on September 26, and the production start - up rate increased to 83.59% [16]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2351 yuan/ton on September 24, up 0.34%. The spread between MA2509 and MA2601 widened. The basis of Taicang decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory decreased to 31.994%, port inventory decreased to 149.2 million tons, and social inventory decreased to 181.2% [19]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased slightly, while downstream external - MTO device start - up rate increased [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: CFR China pure benzene rose to $726/ton, and the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased. Port inventory decreased [23]. - **Styrene**: Styrene East - China spot price rose to 6910 yuan/ton, and the basis of EB10 decreased [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On September 24, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price remained at 2500 yuan/ton, and East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4740 yuan/ton [27]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry start - up rate decreased to 85.4%, and PVC total start - up rate decreased to 75.4% [27]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry start - up rate increased to 83.7%, and PVC downstream product start - up rates increased slightly [27]. Polyolefins - **Futures**: On September 24, L2601 closed at 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [31]. - **Spot**: East - China PP拉丝 spot price remained at 6720 yuan/ton, and North - China LDPE film - grade spot price rose to 7070 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased to 45.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased to 52.0 million tons [31]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE device start - up rate increased to 80.4%, and PP device start - up rate decreased to 74.9% [31].

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Core View - The significant increase in US crude oil exports has led to a substantial reduction in crude oil inventories, but the weekly export volume fluctuates greatly. Refinery crude oil input has begun to decline continuously, and refineries will enter the maintenance season later, resulting in a temporary decline in demand. Distillate inventories have been increasing since reaching the lowest point of the year in July, with a significantly faster growth rate than the same period in previous years. Diesel consumption is weak, and the 4th quarter is about to enter the consumption peak season, so the later changes should be monitored. The data is slightly bearish. EIA and IEA have raised the global crude oil supply forecast in their monthly reports, and the expected inventory accumulation speed has accelerated. Oil prices will continue to be under pressure in the medium term, and the main strategy is to hold a bearish view. In operation, short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. Grouped by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $62.30, closing price was $62.34, highest price was $63, lowest price was $61.61, with a decline of 0.10% and a trading volume of 20.97 million lots. Brent's opening price was $65.98, closing price was $66.01, highest price was $66.67, lowest price was $65.35, with a decline of 0.05% and a trading volume of 29.58 million lots. SC's opening price was 476.6 yuan/barrel, closing price was 473.1 yuan/barrel, highest price was 478.7 yuan/barrel, lowest price was 471.6 yuan/barrel, with a decline of 2.29% and a trading volume of 10.21 million lots [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main strategy is to hold a bearish view on oil prices in the medium term, and short positions should be taken on rallies [6]. 2. Industry News - Kuwait's oil minister stated that Kuwait will increase its oil production to 2.559 million barrels per day in October, with a production capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day [7]. - According to the Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI), Saudi Arabia's crude oil production decreased by 551,000 barrels per day month-on-month in July, dropping to 9.201 million barrels per day [7]. - Market news indicated that Iraq and oil companies are preparing to sign an agreement to restart exports from the Kurdish region [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high-frequency crude oil inventories, EIA crude oil inventories, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][10][17][21]