Group 1 - The main contract for crude oil futures at the Shanghai International Energy Exchange experienced fluctuations and closed lower, with a decrease of 1.04% or 4.6 yuan, settling at 439.7 yuan [1] - The trading volume for the main contract was 66,170 lots, while the open interest decreased by 950 lots to 28,139 lots [1] - In contrast, WTI crude oil futures rose by 0.36%, closing at $58.46 per barrel [1]

此次扣押行动可能会让委内瑞拉向海外出口原油变得更加困难，因为其他船运公司现在很可能会更加不 愿意装载其原油。 美国总统特朗普多次暗示，美国可能会对委内瑞拉境内发动打击，并称该国总统马杜罗"日子屈指可 数"。 受美国军方在委内瑞拉海岸附近拦截并扣押一艘受制裁油轮的消息影响，原本下跌的原油期货扭转跌 势。这一举动标志着两国紧张关系大幅升级。 WTI原油价格转而上涨，收于每桶58美元上方，此前一度下跌多达1%。布伦特原油则收于每桶62美元 上方。 受美国军方在委内瑞拉海岸附近拦截并扣押一艘受制裁油轮的消息影响，原本下跌的原油期货扭转跌 势。这一举动标志着两国紧张关系大幅升级。 WTI原油价格转而上涨，收于每桶58美元上方，此前一度下跌多达1%。布伦特原油则收于每桶62美元 上方。 此次扣押行动可能会让委内瑞拉向海外出口原油变得更加困难，因为其他船运公司现在很可能会更加不 愿意装载其原油。 美国总统特朗普多次暗示，美国可能会对委内瑞拉境内发动打击，并称该国总统马杜罗"日子屈指可 数"。 乌克兰再次袭击了一艘俄罗斯"影子船队"中的油轮，持续打击莫斯科至关重要的海运石油贸易。 乌克兰再次袭击了一艘俄罗斯"影子船队"中的油 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is currently in a chaotic phase where Russian oil buyers need to balance compliance risks and discount benefits, and the number of floating storage tanks for Russian oil is an important indicator to watch [2]. - Short - term oil price drivers are strong. The strategy is to go long on diesel cracks (event - driven) in the short term and hold a short - position in the medium term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - WTI January crude oil futures fell $1.20, a nearly 2.00% drop, to settle at $58.88 per barrel. Brent February crude oil futures dropped $1.26, a 1.98% decline, to $62.49 per barrel [1]. - The crude oil transportation from the West Qurna - 2 oilfield of Lukoil has resumed, and the site is expected to return to normal operations between 1:00 and 2:00 am. The repair of the damaged part of the oil pipeline at the West Qurna - 2 oilfield was completed around 7:30 pm local time [1]. - On December 8, Ukrainian President Zelensky held over two - hour talks with UK Prime Minister Starmer, French President Macron, and German Chancellor Merz at the UK Prime Minister's residence. The four leaders discussed a draft of the latest peace plan to end the Ukraine crisis [1]. - The US White House stated that the national average price of regular gasoline is at its lowest level in 1681 days. GasBuddy data shows that the average gasoline price in 37 states has fallen below $3 per gallon, 22 states below $2.75 per gallon, and 5 states below $2.50 per gallon [1]. Investment Logic - The recent arrival of Russian crude oil in Turkey has returned to 400,000 barrels per day, indicating that buyers may have sourced Russian oil from non - sanctioned entities. The Indian state - owned company BPCL has also resumed purchases, but the discount on Russian oil continues to decline [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Go long on diesel cracks (event - driven). - Medium - term: Hold a short - position [3]. Risk - Downside risks: OPEC significantly increases production; a macro black - swan event occurs [3]. - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) tightens; large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3].

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 11 月 27 日 一、行情回顾与操作建议 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the self - valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and the market may continue the low - level oscillation trend in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6793, 6845, and 6880 respectively, with price increases of 23, 14, and 3 and percentage increases of 0.34%, 0.20%, and 0.04% respectively. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6372, 6474, and 6519, with price increases of 15, 0, and 2 and percentage increases of 0.24%, 0.00%, and 0.03% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 334461, 107016, and 1244 respectively, and the open interests were 497429, 176591, and 2688 respectively, with open interest changes of - 15317, 25839, and 129 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 374416, 95707, and 1999 respectively, and the open interests were 605178, 183032, and 10073 respectively, with open interest changes of - 21657, 21079, and 206 respectively [2] - **Spread**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 52, - 35, and 87 respectively, compared with previous values of - 61, - 46, and 107. For PP, the current spreads are - 102, - 45, and 147 respectively, compared with previous values of - 117, - 43, and 160 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2082 yuan/ton, 5925 yuan/ton, 561 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6160 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6900 - 7350 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the ranges are 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] Consumption Information - On Monday (November 24), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.84 per barrel, up $0.78 or 1.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.42 - $59.06. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.37 per barrel, up $0.81 or 1.29% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.94 - $63.56 [2]

Group 1: Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 18 cents, closing at $59.91 per barrel, a decrease of 0.3%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 19 cents, closing at $64.20 per barrel, a decrease of 0.3%. The main SC crude oil contract rose 0.24%, closing at 462 yuan per barrel [1] - Ukraine's General Staff claimed to have attacked the Novogubyshevsk Refinery of Rosneft in the Samara region of Russia, the latest in a series of attacks on Russia's fuel production industry in the country's deep - seated areas [1] - Serbian President Vucic said on October 16 that the government was willing to repurchase the controlling stake held by Gazprom at a premium to help NIS, the country's only refinery, get out of the US sanctions dilemma [1] - The Prime Minister of Iraq told the former CEO of Lukoil that Iraq remained committed to stabilizing the global oil market, and Lukoil's West Qurna oil field continued to produce about 480,000 barrels of oil per day [1] - The analysis of the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) pointed out that sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, cutting Russia's oil revenue and driving Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Media reported that the loading operations at the Sheskharis Oil Terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, had resumed after last week's attack. However, satellite images showed that the loading of Urals crude oil was still interrupted, and two berths at the Sheskharis Port were not operating normally. The loading speed of the Sheskharis Oil Terminal, especially for Urals crude oil, was still below normal levels. The port used to export about 500,000 barrels per day of Russian crude oil [2] Group 3: Strategy - Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and a medium - term short position is recommended (shorting the monthly spread, Brent, or WTI) [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include tighter supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to conflicts in the Middle East [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term outlook of being weak, a medium - term outlook of being volatile, and an intraday view of being weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Movement and Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak, with an overall expectation of weak operation [1]. - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. Driving Logic - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5]. - The US EIA simultaneously lowered the price forecasts of US crude oil and Brent crude oil for this year and next year, and the latest weekly inventory continued to decline, but the decline was weaker than expected [5]. - There is a lack of new demand drivers at the macro level, coupled with a slight strengthening of the US dollar. Speculative funds reduced their positions, and the WTI far - month contract showed a contango structure, intensifying short - term selling pressure [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillating trend, and a strong intraday trend [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Information Price and Trend - On the night of Monday this week, the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.06% to 462.9 yuan/barrel. It is expected that on Tuesday, the contract may maintain a strong trend [5] Driving Logic - The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown, warming market sentiment and boosting investors' risk appetite. As geopolitical sentiment is digested, the crude oil futures market returns to a supply - demand fundamental - driven market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nymex crude oil futures have recently surpassed the $60.00 per barrel mark, indicating a positive trend in oil prices [1] - Brent crude oil futures have also reached the $64.00 per barrel mark, reflecting a similar upward movement [1] Price Movements - Nymex crude oil futures are currently priced at $60.05 per barrel, with a daily increase of 1.04% [1] - Brent crude oil futures are currently priced at $64.00 per barrel, with a daily increase of 0.91% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period Views - **Short - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1] - **Medium - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1] - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1][5] 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - After the meeting between the leaders of China and the US, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - bullish sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon. The escalation of the South American geopolitical conflict due to the US troop increase in the Caribbean Sea last weekend boosted the international crude oil premium, which hedged geopolitical risks to some extent. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.95% to 457.7 yuan/barrel. It is expected that on Thursday, the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend [5]