Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - The new agreement between Baghdad, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and Kurdish operators may pave the way for the resumption of oil transportation through the Iraq - Turkey Pipeline (ITP), but significant uncertainties remain. If the pipeline resumes operation, it could increase Iraq's crude oil exports by 30 to 400,000 barrels per day, exerting downward pressure on oil prices [2] 3. Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 4 cents to $62.64 per barrel, a decrease of 0.06%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for November delivery fell 11 cents to $66.57 per barrel, a decrease of 0.16%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 1.38% at 478 yuan per barrel [1] - The EU plans to increase pressure on Russia's access to petrodollars, and its next round of sanctions against Russia will target multiple important links in the global oil industry. Some Russian energy companies will face "full trading bans" and asset freezes, and the EU will add 118 "shadow oil tanker fleet" vessels to the sanctions list, bringing the total number of sanctioned shadow tankers to over 560 [1] - The UN Security Council rejected a resolution to extend the sanctions waiver on Iran on Thursday. If an agreement is not reached before 8 p.m. on September 27, sanctions against Iran will be immediately restored. There is still more than a week for negotiations [1] - Saudi Arabia's new mutual defense agreement with Pakistan is unlikely to change Riyadh's energy relationship with major consumer India. India will continue to buy Saudi oil. Riyadh's crude oil daily sales in July were slightly over 600,000 barrels, making it one of India's top three crude oil suppliers [1] - Kuwait's oil minister said that the latest OPEC+ decision to increase production is related to market developments, and the production increase measures can be suspended or reversed [1] 4. Investment Logic - The agreement between Baghdad, KRG, and Kurdish operators needs to be approved by the Iraqi Council of Ministers. Although SOMO claims that exports can be resumed within days, the specific schedule is still unclear. Kurdish operators have agreed to a compensation fee of $16 per barrel, and the pipeline's resumption also requires Turkey's consent [2] 5. Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3]

每经AI快讯，9月15日，布伦特原油期货涨幅扩大至1%，报67.787美元/桶。 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices will oscillate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [4] 2. Core View - Trump is considering collaborating with the EU to impose more secondary tariffs and sanctions on Russian oil. However, due to some EU countries still importing Russian oil and gas, it's difficult to pass secondary tariffs or sanctions on these EU countries, and Western sanctions on Russia seem to be at a dead - end, unable to balance stable oil and gas prices and sanctions against Russia [3] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the October - delivered light crude oil futures price rose $1.04 to $63.67 per barrel, a 1.66% increase; the November - delivered London Brent crude oil futures price rose $1.10 to $67.49 per barrel, also a 1.66% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.82% at 490 yuan per barrel [1] - The US Energy Secretary plans to expand crude oil and refined oil production and increase exports to Europe [2] - The White House is reviewing a plan to require large refineries to bear part of the reduced biofuel blending volume due to small refineries' exemptions, with large refineries compensating for 50% or less of the exempted biofuel volume [2] - EU Commission President von der Leyen is considering speeding up the phase - out of Russian fossil fuels and imposing sanctions on the oil shadow fleet and third - countries in the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [2] - Russian oil exports reached a three - month high, with the four - week average seaborne exports up 4% to about 3.34 million barrels per day as of September 7, and the seven - day data showing an increase of 200,000 barrels per day to 3.9 million barrels per day [2] - As of the week ending September 8, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.518 million barrels to 16.024 million barrels. Light distillate inventory increased by 88,000 barrels to 6.741 million barrels, a 1.3% increase; medium distillate inventory decreased by 116,000 barrels to 2.188 million barrels, a 5% decrease; heavy residual fuel oil inventory increased by 1.546 million barrels to 7.095 million barrels [2] Investment Logic - Trump wants to impose tariffs on some EU countries (Hungary and Slovakia) that import Russian oil through pipelines (about 250,000 barrels per day) in addition to sanctions. But secondary tariffs or sanctions on EU countries may not pass, and Western sanctions on Russia are in a deadlock [3] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will oscillate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [4] Risk - Downward risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur - Upward risks: The US tightens sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions are caused by Middle - East conflicts [4]

Core Insights - As of September 3, WTI crude oil futures for October closed at $65.59 per barrel, reflecting an increase of $1.58, or approximately 2.47% from the previous Friday [1] - Brent crude oil futures for November rose by $0.99, with a gain of over 1.45%, closing at $69.14 per barrel [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report Crude oil prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still downward pressure in the medium and long term. Support factors include the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories, the narrowing of the discount of crude oil from the Middle East to Asia, the incomplete dissipation of geopolitical risk premiums, and the structural differentiation of fuel demand at the end of the Northern Hemisphere summer. Suppressing factors include the expectation of OPEC+ to accelerate the exit from production cuts, the increase in US exports, seasonal refinery maintenance, and cautious macro - sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 21, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract rose 1.68% to 490.9 yuan/barrel, breaking through the recent oscillation range. The prices of WTI and Brent main contracts remained at $62.84/barrel and $67.04/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread widened from $0.21/barrel to $1.35/barrel (a 542.86% increase), and the SC - WTI spread rose from $4.41/barrel to $5.55/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread was stable at $4.2/barrel. The spread between the near - month and the third - consecutive contract of SC narrowed from - 4.2 yuan/barrel to - 2.0 yuan/barrel [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain** - **Supply**: US crude oil exports rebounded to over 4 million barrels per day in August - September, the highest since the beginning of the year. OPEC+ accelerating the lifting of 2.2 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts still suppresses market sentiment. UK sanctions on Iranian business entities may increase the risk of restricted Iranian crude oil exports [2]. - **Demand**: The US gasoline demand peak season is nearing its end, and refinery maintenance may suppress short - term crude oil processing demand. As of the week ending August 15, commercial crude oil inventories in the US dropped by 6 million barrels to 420.7 million barrels. The Asian market is significantly differentiated, with Singapore's light/medium distillate inventories rising to 17 - week and 6 - week highs, and fuel oil inventories dropping to an 8 - week low [2]. - **Inventory**: US natural gas inventories have been accumulating less than expected, indicating energy demand resilience. The narrowing of the SC far - month discount may imply increased spot purchasing momentum in the Asia - Pacific region [2]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: Crude oil prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but there is still downward pressure in the medium and long term. Later, attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policy adjustments, the sustainability of US exports, and changes in Asian distillate inventories [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: The prices of most crude oil futures and spot contracts increased on August 21, 2025. The SC - Brent and SC - WTI spreads widened, while the Brent - WTI spread narrowed. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, and the US refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased slightly [5]. - **Fuel Oil**: The prices of most fuel oil futures and spot contracts increased on August 21, 2025. Singapore's fuel oil inventories decreased, while some US distillate inventories increased [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - **Supply**: US crude oil exports are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day in August and September, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year, due to refinery maintenance and the price advantage of WTI in Asia [7][8]. - **Demand**: Air Canada expects flights to operate close to the normal schedule tomorrow [9]. - **Inventory**: US natural gas inventories increased by 13 billion cubic feet in the week ending August 15, less than expected. Singapore's light and medium distillate inventories rose to multi - week highs, and fuel oil inventories dropped to an 8 - week low [10][11]. - **Market Information**: The UK imposed sanctions on an Iranian business tycoon and several key enterprises in his network [12]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US crude oil production, refinery operating rates, and inventories of various types of oil products [13][15][17]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to trade in a range; Medium - term: Bearish allocation [3] 2. Core View - India will continue to import Russian oil even under the threat of high tariffs as it's difficult to find a complete substitute for Russian oil supply, and the Friendship Pipeline's southern line has resumed oil supply [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: The September - delivery light crude oil futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 86 cents to $63.21 per barrel, a 1.38% increase; the October - delivery Brent crude oil futures price rose $1.05 to $66.84 per barrel, a 1.60% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 0.95% at 487 yuan per barrel [1] - **India's Oil Imports**: Russia expects India to continue buying its oil. As of mid - 2025, India imports about 1.7 million barrels of Russian oil per day, accounting for nearly 37% of its overseas purchases. Russian oil has a about 5% price discount, and Indian state - owned refineries have placed orders for Russian oil [1] - **US Crude Oil Exports**: After a slow summer, US crude oil exports are starting to recover. Exports in August and September are expected to exceed 4 million barrels per day, reaching the highest level since the beginning of the year [1] - **UAE Oil Inventory**: As of the week ending August 18, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 15.491 million barrels, down 1.936 million barrels from the previous week, the lowest level since November 25, 2024 [1] - **South Korea's Petrochemical Industry**: South Korean petrochemical companies will agree to cut naphtha cracking capacity by up to 3.7 million tons per year [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term observation and holding long - short spreads for crude oil [1] 2. Report's Core View - The core view is to provide the latest price changes of international crude oil futures and relevant news, and give an investment suggestion of short - term observation and holding long - short spreads for crude oil [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures closed down $1.07 per barrel, a 1.69% decline, at $62.35 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed down $0.81 per barrel, a 1.21% decline, at $65.79 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures closed down 4.20 yuan per barrel, a 0.87% decline, at 480.90 yuan per barrel [1] Trend Strength - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view. The value range of trend strength is [- 2,2] [2][3] API Inventory Data - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 was - 2417000 barrels, expected - 1587000 barrels, and the previous value was 1519000 barrels. There are also data on API Cushing crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, refined oil inventory, heating oil inventory, crude oil imports, and refined oil imports [2] International News - Trump is arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Macron suggests the meeting be held in Geneva, Switzerland. Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán discussed Ukraine's EU accession negotiations and Budapest as a possible meeting place. The EU Commission spokesperson said to continue pressuring Russia, and NATO and EU accession issues should be decided by Ukraine. Trump believes all indicators show that interest rates need to be significantly lowered. Indian Prime Minister Modi met with Wang Yi and said that India and China are partners rather than rivals [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait - and - see approach recommended [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is still sensitive to upside risks caused by geopolitical factors, and it is recommended to continue holding the double - buy strategy of out - of - the - money options [2] - The fuel oil market has abundant arrivals, and the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is marginally relieved, with different performance in variety spreads [3] - The supply and demand of asphalt are expected to tighten marginally, with the price range - bound and the crack spread expected to gradually recover [4] - The overseas LPG market is stable, while the domestic market is under pressure, and the market is in a low - level shock [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the crude oil futures fluctuated, and the SC09 contract fell 0.71% due to the impact of position transfer. The risk of Russian oil sanctions is trending to ease, but short - term uncertainties remain. The market is sensitive to upside risks from geopolitical factors, and it is advisable to continue holding the double - buy strategy of out - of - the money options [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The arrival of fuel oil in the Asian market is abundant, with weak ship - bunkering and power - generation demands. The inventories in Singapore and Fujairah are high, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore continues to decline. The approval of the quota for converting low - sulfur fuel oil to refined oil by main refineries marginally relieves the supply pressure, and LU is boosted. FU is weaker than LU but stronger than SC, and the FU crack spread strengthens [3] Asphalt - The supply and demand of asphalt have tightened slightly as expected. The diversion effect of Venezuelan oil imports by the US on North Asian resources may gradually appear, and the cumulative output of asphalt by Sinopec is declining year - on - year. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, the road demand is expected to rise. The August shipment volume of sample refineries increased 8% year - on - year, and leading indicators are positive. The BU price follows SC but shows certain resistance to decline. The price of the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton, and the crack spread is expected to gradually recover [4] LPG - The overseas LPG market is stable, with increased exports but supported by East Asian procurement demand. The domestic imports and refinery out - put are rising, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is continuously weakening, and the sustainability of the high operating rate needs attention. The market is waiting for the implementation of bearish expectations, with strong pressure at the top due to high warehouse receipts, and the high - basis pattern can continue, mainly in low - level shock [5]

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil futures have increased by over 2% in a single day, currently priced at $63.92 per barrel [1] Group 1 - The main contract for WTI crude oil futures has shown a significant daily increase [1] - The current price of WTI crude oil is reported at $63.92 per barrel [1]

Group 1 - Brent crude futures increased by 1%, reaching $67.122 per barrel [1] - WTI crude futures also rose by 1%, now priced at $64.571 per barrel [1]