文/高晓峰专业国际市场点评 ，本人解读世界经济要闻，剖析全球投资大趋势，对原油、黄金、白银等 大宗商品等有深入的研究，以上内容属于个人建议，因网络发文有时效性，仅供参考，风险自担 黄金价持续上涨，不断刷新高点。晚间有望延续涨势，上看至3800一线，当前市场环境由两大核心因素 主导：一是地缘政治局势持续不稳定，推高了避险情绪，资金涌入黄金寻求庇护；二是市场持续炒作美 联储降息预期，压制了美元走势，为金价提供了强劲支撑。在这两大主题的共振下，黄金市场多头情绪 浓厚，买盘力量坚实，短期内难以出现有效的大幅回调空间。操作上建议维持看涨思路，顺势而为，策 略以逢低做多为主，密切关注地缘事件进展及美联储政策信号的最新动向。 晚间黄金建议：回踩3765-3760继续做多 止损3753 目标3790 高晓峰：9.23金价持续攀升，晚间多空如何布局？ ...

说完国内黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 上周五现货黄金盘中不断震荡，晚间出现拉升。最终收报3684.36美元/盎司，涨幅1.10%。今日金价继 续保持回升，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3705.72美元/盎司，涨幅0.58%。 上周五金价的回升主要是市场对美联储降息预期升温，据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，市场对美联储 10月降息的预期为91.9%，12月降息预期更是高达98.9%。而紧张的地缘政治局势也是金价上涨的重要 支撑。 9月22日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价涨势又起，价格再次接近上周的高位。其中，周生生黄 金上涨8元，报价1090元/克，为今日的最高价金店。上海中国黄金继续维持999元/克的报价，还是最低 价金店。今日的金店高低价差已扩大至91元。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年9月22日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1084 | 元/克 | 5 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1085 | 元/克 | 7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices are expected to move up slightly due to escalating geopolitical tensions and improved domestic demand data [1]. - Fuel oil prices are expected to fluctuate, with the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakening and the high - sulfur fuel oil market having some support. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of crude oil on the cost side [3]. - Asphalt prices may rise further as the supply is expected to decline slightly in September and the demand is supported by the "Golden September and Silver October" season. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices on the cost side [3]. - Polyester prices are expected to fluctuate. PTA's fundamentals are expected to improve, and ethylene glycol's supply recovery needs to be followed up. Prices may follow the cost side [4]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with both supply and demand increasing. Attention should be paid to the results of China - US talks and the Fed meeting [6]. - Methanol prices are expected to enter a stage bottom, and the basis will gradually strengthen. Attention should be paid to buying opportunities at low prices [6]. - Polyolefin prices will fluctuate with raw materials as the demand is improving marginally and the supply remains stable [8]. - PVC prices are expected to fluctuate due to high supply, slow domestic demand recovery, and large inventory pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, WTI October contract closed up $0.61 to $63.30 per barrel, a 0.97% increase; Brent November contract closed up $0.45 to $67.44 per barrel, a 0.67% increase; SC2510 closed at 493.4 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan or 1.11%. Geopolitical tensions are rising, and domestic demand data has improved month - on - month. In August, the output of industrial crude oil above designated size was 18.26 million tons, a 2.4% year - on - year increase, and the processing volume was 63.46 million tons, a 7.6% year - on - year increase [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil FU2601 rose 2.41% to 2,799 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil LU2511 fell 2.65% to 3,375 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weakening, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support. The supply in Singapore has increased recently [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main contract of asphalt BU2511 fell 0.29% to 3,393 yuan per ton. The supply is expected to decline slightly in the remaining weeks of September, and the demand is supported by the "Golden September and Silver October" season [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,672 yuan per ton, up 0.52%; EG2601 closed at 4,288 yuan per ton, up 0.37%. PX supply has recovered, and the downstream TA maintenance is coming to an end. The fundamentals of polyester are expected to improve [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main contract of natural rubber RU2601 rose 175 yuan to 15,995 yuan per ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber NR rose 155 yuan to 12,710 yuan per ton. The supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [4][6]. - **Methanol**: The supply is currently at a low level due to many domestic device overhauls and will gradually recover. The Xingxing device has resumed production, and the supply - demand gap in East China is narrowing. The price is expected to enter a stage bottom [6]. - **Polyolefin**: The demand is improving marginally with the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, and the supply remains stable. The price will fluctuate with raw materials [8]. - **PVC**: The domestic real - estate construction has stabilized and rebounded, but the demand recovery is slow. The export is affected by India's anti - dumping policy. The total inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical products on September 15, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes compared with September 12 [9]. 3.3 Market News - In August, the production of industrial crude oil above designated size increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the processing volume increased by 7.6% year - on - year. The US is ready to impose new energy sanctions on Russia, but only if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil [12]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [14][17][20] 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - The report shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy - chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [32][34][38] 3.4.3 Inter - contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [47][49][52] 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - The report presents the spread charts between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [62][66][70] 3.4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [73][76] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy - chemical research team, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their professional backgrounds and achievements [78][79][80] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83]

中美就妥善解决TikTok问题达成基本框架共识 新华社报道，中国商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢15日傍晚表示，中美双方就以合作方式妥善 解决TikTok问题、减少投资障碍、促进有关经贸合作等达成了基本框架共识。 当地时间9月14日至15日，中美双方经贸团队在西班牙马德里举行会谈。李成钢在会谈结束后中方代表 团举行的新闻发布会上说，过去两天，中美双方积极落实两国元首通话重要共识，充分发挥中美经贸磋 商机制作用，在相互尊重、平等协商的基础上，就TikTok等双方关注的经贸问题进行了坦诚、深入、建 设性的沟通。 关于TikTok问题，李成钢表示，中国一贯反对将科技和经贸问题政治化、工具化、武器化，绝不会以牺 牲原则立场、企业利益和国际公平正义为代价，寻求达成任何协议。中方将坚决维护国家利益和中资企 业合法权益，依法依规开展技术出口审批。同时，中国政府充分尊重企业意愿，支持企业在符合市场原 则基础上，开展平等商业谈判。 发布会上，中国国家互联网信息办公室副主任王京涛在回答媒体提问时指出，中美双方在充分尊重企业 意愿和市场规律的基础上，就通过TikTok美国用户数据和内容安全业务委托运营、算法等知识产权使用 权授 ...

Group 1 - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with some stores showing slight declines; the highest price reported is 1078 CNY per gram, while the lowest is 999 CNY per gram [1][2] - The price range between the highest and lowest gold prices in stores has expanded to 79 CNY [1] - Platinum prices are on the rise, with a slight increase of 3 CNY per gram for platinum jewelry, now priced at 564 CNY per gram [2] Group 2 - The gold recovery price has decreased by 1.7 CNY per gram, with significant price differences among brands [3] - The current gold recovery price is 818.80 CNY per gram, with variations across different brands [3] - International gold prices experienced fluctuations, with the latest spot gold price at 3635.57 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.20% [5] Group 3 - Recent fluctuations in gold prices were influenced by weak U.S. economic data and geopolitical risks, which initially supported price increases [5] - UBS analysts have raised their gold price targets, projecting 3800 USD per ounce by the end of 2025 and 3900 USD per ounce by mid-2026 [5] - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode, with expectations of continued volatility in gold prices [5]

Group 1 - International gold prices are currently challenging the $3700 per ounce mark after a period of consolidation around $3400, driven by weak U.S. employment indicators and increased likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The significant rise in gold prices in 2025, with an increase of approximately 30% in less than nine months, is attributed to geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, as well as concerns over the future of the U.S. dollar due to trade wars and Federal Reserve policies [2] - The rise in gold prices is expected to have a limited impact on industrial production but may suppress jewelry consumption, particularly affecting businesses that produce and sell gold jewelry [2] Group 2 - Mining companies with substantial gold reserves and favorable production conditions are likely to benefit from rising gold prices, which also positively influences silver and other precious metals [3] - The ongoing increase in gold prices is shifting investor behavior, with a notable rise in sales of physical gold products like gold bars, while jewelry consumption declines, indicating a preference for gold as a safe-haven investment [3] - The limited capacity of domestic gold investment avenues, such as the 20 available gold ETFs with a total net value of around 155 billion yuan, suggests that there is potential for growth in gold investment options, which could influence market dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent actions taken by Poland are aimed at gaining political or economic advantages within NATO and the EU framework, according to the Russian chargé d'affaires in Poland, Andrei Ordash [1] Group 1: Actions and Responses - Poland's military responded to a significant incursion of drones into its airspace on the night of September 9, shooting down several of them [1] - The Polish government claims that the drones originated from Russia, while the Russian side has refrained from confirming this assertion [1] - Ordash noted that the recent actions by Polish authorities are primarily intended to increase their bargaining power on the international stage [1] Group 2: Investigation Proposals - The Russian Ministry of Defense has proposed a joint investigation into the drone incidents, but the Polish government has not responded to this proposal [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant upward trend due to factors such as escalating trade tensions, geopolitical issues, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with gold prices reaching historical highs [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - From January to August 2025, London gold prices surged to a historical high of $3,500 per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures reached a record high of 841.28 yuan per gram, with overall increases of over 31% and nearly 27% respectively [1]. - The London gold price fluctuated between $2,614 and $3,500.12 per ounce, while Shanghai gold traded between 626 and 841.3 yuan per gram during the same period [1]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Multiple factors are contributing to rising expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, including a dovish shift from Fed officials and weak employment data [2]. - The Fed is anticipated to initiate a new round of rate cuts, with expectations for two cuts in the second half of 2025, specifically in September and December [2]. Group 3: Global Trade Relations - The global trade environment remains uncertain, with the Trump administration's policies continuing to influence trade relations, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe haven [3]. - Although there have been temporary improvements in trade relations, the long-term outlook remains tense, which may continue to support gold prices [3]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment is expected to remain favorable for gold, with no significant bearish factors anticipated in the near term, suggesting a continued strong performance for gold prices [4]. - There is a possibility for gold prices to reach between $3,700 and $3,800 per ounce by the end of 2025, indicating that the bull market for gold is not over [4].

Group 1: Gold Price Trends - In the first eight months of 2025, gold prices surged significantly due to trade tensions, geopolitical issues, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, with London gold reaching a historical high of $3,500 per ounce and Shanghai gold hitting 841.28 yuan per gram [1] - The overall range for London gold prices was between $2,614 and $3,500.12 per ounce, reflecting an increase of over 31%, while Shanghai gold prices ranged from 626 to 841.3 yuan per gram, showing an increase of nearly 27% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - Multiple factors have led to heightened expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, including a dovish shift from Fed officials, which signals the potential for a new round of rate cuts [2] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under pressure due to political influences, with expectations that the Fed may initiate a new rate cut cycle, potentially larger than anticipated [2] - Weak U.S. employment data has further fueled expectations for rate cuts, with July's non-farm payroll data indicating a significant weakening in the labor market [2] Group 3: Global Trade Relations - Global trade relations remain tense, primarily influenced by the Trump administration's policies, which have led to increased market volatility and heightened demand for gold as a safe haven [3] - Although there have been temporary improvements in trade relations, such as progress in negotiations with major economies, the long-term outlook remains uncertain, with potential for renewed tensions [3] - The fourth quarter is expected to see changes in trade dynamics that could positively impact gold prices [3] Group 4: Future Outlook for Gold - With the Federal Reserve likely to restart its easing cycle and ongoing geopolitical tensions, the macroeconomic environment is expected to remain favorable for gold [4] - There is a strong possibility that gold prices could reach new historical highs, with projections suggesting London gold may rise to between $3,700 and $3,800 per ounce [4] - The long-term bullish trend for gold is anticipated to continue, with no significant bearish factors emerging in the near term [4]

Group 1: Domestic Gold Market Dynamics - Domestic gold prices continued to rise after an increase last Saturday, with the highest prices reported at 1027 CNY/gram, while Shanghai China Gold remained the lowest at 969 CNY/gram, creating a price gap of 58 CNY/gram [1] - The latest gold prices from various brands on September 1, 2025, show significant increases, with brands like LiuFook and Chow Tai Fook both reporting prices of 1027 CNY/gram, reflecting a rise of 12 CNY [1] - Platinum prices also saw a slight increase, with Chow Sang Sang reporting a price of 553 CNY/gram, up by 2 CNY [1] Group 2: Gold Recovery Prices - The gold recovery price surged by 13.3 CNY/gram, with significant price differences among brands [2] - The recovery prices for various brands include: 785.20 CNY/gram for general gold, 790.70 CNY/gram for China Gold, and 798.00 CNY/gram for Lao Feng Xiang [2] Group 3: International Gold Price Trends - Last Friday, spot gold experienced fluctuations, reaching a low of 3404.14 USD/ounce before closing at 3447.52 USD/ounce, marking a 0.89% increase [3] - As of the latest update, spot gold is reported at 3482.54 USD/ounce, reflecting a 1.02% increase [3] - The rise in gold prices is supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine [3]