8月25日国内黄金市场动态：国内品牌金店金价在周六出现上涨，今日部分金店金价有所回落，但整体 金价还是高了很多。目前，周生生黄金还是最高价金店，下跌4元.克，报价1010元/克。上海中国黄金 不涨不跌，报价969元/克，还是最低价金店。今日的金店高低价差扩大至41元/克。 现货黄金上周五晚间受鲍威尔鸽派发言影响，出现大幅拉升，盘中大涨30多美元，最终收报3371.69美 元/盎司，涨幅1.0%。今日金价有所回落，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3364.32美元/盎司，跌幅0.22%。 多伦多Corpay首席市场策略师Karl Schamotta分析称，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话释放的宽松信号显著超 出市场预期，这直接导致美元汇率承压下行，市场对9月货币政策会议上采取降息举措的预期持续升 温，投资者普遍认为美联储已为后续的货币宽松周期做好政策准备。 据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，目前市场对美联储9月降息概率期望为87.3%，10月降息概率为 93.6%。年内降息次数为2次。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金价格一览（2025年8月25日） | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is influenced by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, geopolitical tensions, and economic data performance [2][3]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 781.12 CNY per gram, up 0.71% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3411.4 USD per ounce, down 0.21% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with a nearly 100% probability according to CME FedWatch. However, internal disagreements within the Fed regarding inflation concerns add uncertainty [2]. - Geopolitical Situation: Accelerating peace talks between Russia and Ukraine may reduce gold's safe-haven demand if tensions ease, while increased geopolitical tensions could enhance gold's appeal [2]. - Economic Data Performance: Key economic indicators like U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI are under scrutiny. Weak data could support the case for rate cuts, bolstering gold prices, while strong data may lead to volatility [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Short-term gold price movements will be primarily driven by Federal Reserve rate cut signals and changes in geopolitical tensions. Clear signals from the Fed or heightened geopolitical risks could lead to price increases, while the opposite may apply [3]. - In the long term, increased global economic uncertainty and the onset of a rate cut cycle could provide upward momentum for gold as a safe-haven and inflation hedge, though improvements in economic data or shifts in Fed policy could pose risks of price corrections [3].

Group 1: Market Outlook - The gold market outlook for the week of August 26 to August 30, 2025, will be influenced by complex and interrelated factors including geopolitical tensions, economic data, monetary policy, and market supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and the potential for conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, could significantly impact gold prices as increased risk aversion may drive investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [4] Group 3: Monetary Policy Impact - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent comments suggest a potential for interest rate cuts in the coming months, which has led to increased market speculation regarding a nearly 100 basis point reduction by year-end [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Current gold prices are showing a bullish trend, with key moving averages indicating support for short-term bullish positions. A successful breakout above the resistance level of $3380 - $3400 per ounce could lead to further upward movement, targeting $3400 - $3450 per ounce [6] - Conversely, failure to break through resistance and a drop below the short-term support level of $3350 per ounce could result in a bearish trend, with potential support at $3320 per ounce [6]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold prices are influenced by various factors including Federal Reserve policy expectations, geopolitical tensions, and the strength of the US dollar [3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 776.08 CNY per gram, down 0.01% [1]. - International gold price is reported at 3380.5 USD per ounce, down 0.03% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - Federal Reserve Policy Expectations: There is significant market divergence regarding the likelihood and extent of a potential rate cut in September. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, but the unexpected rise in July PPI has cooled rate cut expectations. Investors are focused on Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, which could either strengthen the dollar and pressure gold if hawkish, or allow for a rebound in gold if dovish [3]. - Geopolitical Situation: Ongoing negotiations between the US and Russia have not reached an agreement, with attention on the Russia-Ukraine talks. Trump's positive signals for ending the conflict may weaken gold's safe-haven demand if peace talks progress, but uncertainty regarding Putin's willingness to agree maintains support for gold [3]. - US Dollar Performance: The dollar's strong performance has negatively impacted gold prices, as a rising dollar index makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, thus suppressing demand [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Gold prices are currently in a sensitive range with mixed factors at play. The Federal Reserve's policy remains a key variable; a dovish signal from Powell could lead to a short-term rebound, while an emphasis on inflation may continue to pressure gold. Geopolitical uncertainties persist, with positive developments in negotiations potentially reducing gold's appeal, while adverse developments could boost it. The dollar's performance will continue to influence gold prices. Overall, gold is expected to maintain a range-bound movement in the short term, with critical levels such as the 100-day moving average being closely monitored for potential breakout or breakdown [4].

本轮油价会跌多少，让我们持续关注~ 这边说下昨日原油市场的表现， 美原油：下跌0.94%，收于61.99美元/桶。布伦特原油下跌0.92%，收于65.92美元/桶。今日国际油价震荡 中，截至发稿，美原油暂报61.94美元/桶，跌幅0.10%。 昨日油价下跌主要还是地缘政治局势的缓和，市场对原油供应中断的预期缓解。外加OPEC+的9月增产政策，进一步压制油价。 不过需注意的是，今早公布的美国API原油库存减少了约240万桶，市场此前预期是减少120万桶。直接限制了油价的跌幅，而晚间还有美 国EIA原油库存，如果也是超预期减少，预计会提振晚间油价。 另外，欧盟方面称将于9月对俄罗斯进行新一轮制裁，此前的制裁方案就是重点针对俄罗斯能源方面的收入，预计这一轮也不会有过多例 外。 总的来说，市场正等待晚间的数据指引，今晚还有欧元区的通胀数据以及美联储会议纪要，晚间油价震荡空间相当的大。 今日是新一轮油价调整周期的第6个工作日，当前预计油价下跌235元/吨，相比昨日的油价预计跌幅增加5元/吨，折合每升油价下跌0.18- 0.21元，远超下调红线，油价有下跌希望。 注意，油价下跌中 注意，油价调整时间已过半，就目前这个油价 ...

Group 1 - The price of gold T+D is currently at 772.39 CNY per gram, down by 0.78 CNY or 0.10% from the previous day, with a trading range of 770.8 to 774.2 CNY per gram [1] - Economic indicators such as GDP growth and retail sales data significantly influence gold prices, with strong economic growth potentially reducing gold demand, while weak data may increase its safe-haven appeal [2] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will begin a rate cut cycle in 2025, with focus on the timing and magnitude of these cuts, which typically supports gold prices by reducing the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [2] Group 2 - Geopolitical uncertainties, including the situation in the Middle East, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, and tensions on the Korean Peninsula, could lead to fluctuations in market risk sentiment, impacting gold demand [3] - Recent positive signals from the U.S.-Russia summit regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict have somewhat supported global risk sentiment, which may suppress gold's safe-haven demand [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the key resistance level for gold T+D is between 784-800 CNY per gram, while support is found between 770-815 CNY per gram, with a critical decision point at the current price level [4]

芦哲、张佳炜（芦哲系东吴证券首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛成员） 核心观点 核心观点：本周公布的美国7月核心CPI环比结束连续五个月的弱于预期，但由于数据并未超预期，市场加码押注降息，并形成"降息预期升温→经济软着陆 预期强化"的交易组合，导致2年美债利率、美元指数下跌，同时10年TIPS、10年美债利率、美股上涨，黄金下跌。随后，7月PPI在批发贸易服务推动下大 超预期，反映关税的影响仍在进行之中。向前看，关税本身的变化、对批发、零售、终端消费的影响时长时点、幅度仍然存在不确定性，叠加非农、CPI等 数据质量的恶化，我们预期9月降息并非板上钉钉。偏乐观的情形下，我们预期今年2次降息，分别发生在9、12月；偏悲观情形下，我们预期今年1次降息， 发生在10月。因此短期看，当前市场定价的9月0.845次、全年降息2.187次的降息预期过于乐观，9月FOMC前需警惕降息预期回调的风险。中期看，我们预 期2026年5月美联储新主席上台后，货币政策将更宽松，悲观、基准和乐观情形下明年将分别有4、5和6次降息。因此9月FOMC后，市场当前计价的2026年 仅3次的降息预期料将升温。策略上，我们预期9月FOMC前美元指 ...

美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)在周五与俄罗斯总统普京(Vladimir Putin)举行峰会前夕表示，他相信俄 罗斯总统普京已准备好结束乌克兰的战争，但实现和平可能至少需要乌克兰领导人参加第二次会晤。 摘要随着美俄阿拉斯加峰会进入倒计时，市场神经持续紧绷。得益于美元走弱，金价周五（8月15日） 小幅上涨，现货黄金一度逼近3350美元/盎司，但由于美国最新通胀数据表现强劲，市场对美联储大幅 降息的预期降温，金价本周仍可能录得下跌。 随着美俄阿拉斯加峰会进入倒计时，市场神经持续紧绷。得益于美元走弱，金价周五（8月15日）小幅 上涨，现货黄金一度逼近3350美元/盎司，但由于美国最新通胀数据表现强劲，市场对美联储大幅降息 的预期降温，金价本周仍可能录得下跌。 美元指数今日呈现回落态势，失守98关口，这主要是因为投资者在周末前获利了结，同时对美国近期经 济数据的乐观情绪有所降温。在短期内，8月21日至23日召开的美联储年度杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将 成为关键事件，美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话可能会为市场提供关于美联储未来货币政策走向的重要线索， 从而影响美元走势。 现货白银周五（8月15日）亚市盘中吸引逢低买盘介 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All commodities in the report are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the "Trump - Putin Summit", and the market is in a state of waiting for further guidance with an increase in risk - aversion sentiment. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, but the final outcome of the talks needs to be monitored [1]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure due to sufficient supply and falling spot premiums. The high - sulfur fuel oil's summer power - generation demand is waning, and the upward space for both high - and low - sulfur fuel oils is not optimistic [2]. - The asphalt market is expected to show a pattern of increasing supply and demand in August. In the short term, the price will likely fluctuate within a range due to the lack of a clear one - sided driver [2][4]. - The polyester market is affected by the decline in crude oil prices. With the recovery of supply and demand, the polyester chain follows the decline in the cost - end crude oil price [4]. - The methanol market has a situation where the Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. However, the main contract will switch to January, and the subsequent winter port destocking will limit the downward space, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range price fluctuations [5]. - The polyolefin market is approaching the peak demand season of "Golden September and Silver October". The supply will remain at a high level after the end of the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall upward space is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [5]. - The PVC market has high - level supply fluctuations and gradually recovering demand. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and the inventory is expected to decline slowly. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, oil prices rose. The WTI September contract closed up $1.31 to $63.96 per barrel, a 2.09% increase; the Brent October contract closed up $1.21 to $66.84 per barrel, a 1.84% increase; SC2509 closed at 488.2 yuan per barrel, up 4.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.95% increase. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations may boost market demand. The "Trump - Putin Summit" is about to take place, and the market is waiting for the outcome. The oil price has rebounded from a low level, and the overall view is "volatile" [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.03% at 2700 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.23% at 3449 yuan per ton. Singapore's on - land fuel oil inventory decreased, and the spot premium of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore fell to a four - month low. The overall view is "volatile" [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.4% at 3510 yuan per ton. This week, the sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 sample modified asphalt enterprises increased. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to recover, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. The view is "volatile" [2][4]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.55% at 4666 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.89% at 4367 yuan per ton. Some MEG devices are shut down, and some polyester devices are restarted. The overall view is "volatile" [4]. - **Methanol**: The Iranian device load has recovered to a high point, the port inventory has increased rapidly, suppressing the near - month price. The main contract will switch to January, and the price is expected to maintain a near - weak and far - strong structure with narrow - range fluctuations. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyolefin**: The maintenance season is coming to an end, and the supply will remain high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, the demand is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The view is "volatile" [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The supply remains at a high - level fluctuation, the demand is gradually recovering, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The view is "volatile" [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the base - price data of multiple energy - chemical varieties on August 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [7]. 3.3 Market News - The Russian government is considering extending the full ban on gasoline exports until September [9]. - South Korea did not import Iranian crude oil in July this year and last year, and its crude oil imports in July this year were 11.3 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing - price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15][17][19][21][24] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. from 2021 to 2025 [25][27][31][32][33][37] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [39][41][44][47][50][51][54] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread charts of different varieties such as crude oil's internal - external market, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, etc. [56][60][58] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production - profit charts of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, etc. [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, each with their own professional fields and rich experience and honors [69][70][71][72] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [74]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by multiple factors, including U.S. tariff policies, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, and geopolitical tensions, leading to a volatile market environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - Domestic gold price (99.95%) is quoted at 777.98 CNY per gram, down 0.87% [1]. - International gold price stands at 3403.6 USD per ounce, down 0.03% [2]. Group 2: Influential Factors - U.S. Tariff Policy: The U.S. Customs and Border Protection has ruled that certain gold bars require tariffs, causing market turbulence and a spike in gold futures prices. However, the White House plans to clarify and maintain tariff exemptions, creating selling pressure on gold [2]. - Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations: The market anticipates a nearly 90% probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, which is favorable for non-yielding gold. Recent employment data supports the argument for three rate cuts this year [3]. - Geopolitical Risks: Ongoing uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and other geopolitical events contribute to a risk premium for gold as a safe-haven asset. The U.S.-China tariff truce and meetings between U.S. and Russian leaders add to market uncertainty [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to remain volatile in the short term due to the interplay of tariff policies, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and geopolitical tensions. Attention will be focused on U.S. inflation data and policy direction, with high uncertainty surrounding gold prices [4]. - In the long term, if the Federal Reserve cuts rates and geopolitical risks persist, gold may continue to be supported as a safe-haven asset [4].