Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near term, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline due to the possible addition of new production capacity and the gradual exit from the peak season of agricultural films [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 19th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to about 86%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week as of the week of December 19th. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the cost of crude oil has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline [1]. - The plastics 2605 contract decreased in price with increased positions. The lowest price was 6314 yuan/ton, the highest was 6470 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6320 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.90%. The position increased by 36438 lots to 598214 lots [2]. - The PE spot market mostly declined, with a price range between - 80 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6250 - 6570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7950 - 8580 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6600 - 7940 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 19th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to about 86%, at a neutral level [4]. - In terms of demand, as of the week of December 19th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline and were at a neutral level in the same period in recent years, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Petrochemical inventory on Friday decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 660,000 tons, which is 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The plastic supply-demand pattern remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity coming on stream this year and the phasing out of the peak season for agricultural films, the L-PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 18, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE line were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, currently at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week-on-week. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline and raw material inventory dropping again. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased. There are new plastic production capacities coming on stream. The demand in the north has decreased, and downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness. The plastic market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the L-PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased in position and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6,475 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,545 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,476 yuan/ton, below the 60-day moving average, with a decline of 0.54%. The position increased by 21,649 lots to 561,776 lots [2]. - Spot: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from -100 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,350 - 6,570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,000 - 8,680 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,770 - 7,940 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 18, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE line were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 85%, currently at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week-on-week. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline and raw material inventory dropping again. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Inventory: On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 670,000 tons week-on-week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat at $725/ton week-on-week, and the price of ethylene in Southeast Asia remained flat at $745/ton week-on-week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Core Viewpoint - The plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Related Catalogs 行情分析 - On December 17, new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's HDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 86%, at a neutral level. The new production capacity of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) was put into operation in October, and that of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) in November [1][4] - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders continuing to decline. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Recently, the petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. The cost of crude oil has decreased. The downstream procurement willingness is insufficient, and traders are cautious about the future market, actively selling at reduced prices [1] 期现行情 Futures - The plastics 2605 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, closing at 6479 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The trading range was between 6470 - 6543 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The open interest increased by 29,984 lots to 540,127 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market mostly declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6350 - 6570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8000 - 8680 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6770 - 7940 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - Supply: On December 17, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics operating rate dropped to around 86%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 700,000 tons week - on - week, 80,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below 60 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The plastic supply and demand pattern remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and there is no further macro - level positive news. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near future. Due to the possible new plastic production capacity and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On December 12, the number of overhauled plastic devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. Packaging film orders also declined slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years, and the destocking is slow. The cost of crude oil has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline, and the plastic will fluctuate weakly [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased in positions and declined in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 6486 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.83%, and the position increased by 28241 lots to 479677 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6400 - 6620 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8050 - 8830 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6770 - 7420 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of December 12, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. Packaging film orders also declined slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Friday decreased by 10,000 tons to 680,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The petrochemical destocking is slow, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell below $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On December 10, 2025, the plastic market is expected to have weak and volatile trends. The supply side has new capacity put into operation and the plastic operating rate is slightly rising. The demand side sees the PE downstream operating rate at a low - level in the same period in recent years, with the agricultural film season ending and orders decreasing. The cost - end crude oil price is falling, and the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged. The L - PP spread is expected to decline due to potential new capacity and the exit of the agricultural film season [1] Group 3: According to Related Catalogs 1.行情分析 - On December 10, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a neutral level. As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%, with agricultural film orders decreasing. The petrochemical inventory is at a high level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price fell due to the resumption of production in some Iraqi oilfields and the decline in the refined - oil crack spread in Europe and America. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation. The agricultural film season is ending and downstream demand is expected to decline. The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the market is expected to be weak and volatile. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [1] 2.期现行情 Futures - The 2601 plastic contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6523 yuan/ton, the highest was 6592 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6561 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, down 0.52%. The position volume decreased by 72,250 lots to 267,012 lots [2] Spot - Most PE spot prices fell, with the range from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6500 - 6770 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8170 - 8880 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6800 - 7570 yuan/ton [3] 3.基本面跟踪 - Supply side: On December 10, the plastic operating rate remained at around 90%, at a neutral level - Demand side: As of the week of December 5, the PE downstream operating rate dropped 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%, with agricultural film and packaging film orders decreasing. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a low level in the same period in recent years - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 0.5 million tons to 6.9 million tons, 0.4 million tons higher than the same period last year, at a high level in the same period in recent years - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell to $62/barrel, while the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The plastics supply and demand pattern remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere and no further macro - level positives. It is expected that plastics will experience a weak and volatile trend in the near term. Due to potential new capacity additions this year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 9, the restart of maintenance devices such as Ningxia Baofeng's HDPE Phase II led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 90%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 5, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film peak season is ending, with orders continuing to decline, and the overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Petrochemical inventories are at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years. The cost - side crude oil price has dropped. There has been new capacity put into production, and the plastics operating rate has slightly increased. With the end of the agricultural film peak season, downstream demand is expected to decline. The overall plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and it is expected to be weakly volatile in the near term [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract decreased in position, fluctuated, and trended downward, closing at 6557 yuan/ton, down 1.37%. The position volume decreased by 34,931 lots to 339,262 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market mostly declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6600 - 6870 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8190 - 8980 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6860 - 7570 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 9, the restart of maintenance devices such as Ningxia Baofeng's HDPE Phase II led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 90%, at a neutral level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week ending December 5, the downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points to 43.76%. The agricultural film peak season is ending, orders are decreasing, and the overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 69.5 million tons, 3.5 million tons higher than the same period last year, and is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 02 contract fell below $63 per barrel, while the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725 per ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745 per ton [4].

Core Viewpoint - The plastic futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract dropping over 1% and reaching a low of 6673.00 yuan, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main plastic futures contract reported a price of 6698.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.25% [1]. - The market is characterized by weak fluctuations, with institutions predicting continued bearish trends in the near term [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent maintenance at Shanghai Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical has led to a slight decrease in PE production, while new capacity from Yulong's low-density facility is expected to increase supply pressure [2]. - The operating rates for agricultural and packaging films have shown a marginal decline, contributing to a weaker demand outlook [2]. - The supply-demand balance remains fragile, with geopolitical tensions continuing to pose risks to supply chains, despite some stability in international oil prices [2]. Group 3: Cost and Pricing Factors - The cost side remains under pressure, with Russian oil production unaffected by recent sanctions, while the potential for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine appears limited [2]. - New production capacities from ExxonMobil and PetroChina have been introduced, further complicating the supply landscape [2]. - The overall trading atmosphere is subdued, with a cautious approach from traders and a focus on essential purchases, leading to price reductions in the market [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The plastics market is expected to have limited upside space in the near term due to an overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, despite some support from policies. The开工率 of plastics has slightly declined, downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情分析 - On December 3rd, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics开工率 dropped to around 88.5%, at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week ending November 28th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3%, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years, and the cost - end crude oil price is oscillating at a low level [1] - New production capacities were put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream开工率 will decline in the future, with weak procurement willingness from downstream enterprises [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission's meeting gave some boost to bulk commodities, but the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged [1] 3.2期现行情 3.2.1 Futures - The plastics 2601 contract oscillated with a position reduction, closing at 6808 yuan/ton, down 0.19%, and the position decreased by 4354 lots to 402710 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton, and different types of PE had different price ranges [3] 3.3基本面跟踪 - Supply: On December 3rd, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastics开工率 dropped to around 88.5%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 28th, the PE downstream开工率 decreased by 0.39 percentage points to 44.3%, with orders in the agricultural film and packaging film sectors declining [4] - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 3.5 tons to 70 tons, 5.5 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - Raw materials: Brent crude oil 02 contract oscillated around 63 dollars/barrel, and ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat [4]

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月02日 【行情分析】 12月2日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至11 月28日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.39个百分点至44.3%，农膜进入旺季尾声，农膜订单开始下降， 处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存略有下降，包装膜订单同样小幅下降，整体PE下游开工率仍 处于近年同期偏低位水平。月初石化累库较多，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。成本端，俄 罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗 普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，不过近期俄乌和谈达成可能性不大， 原油价格低位震荡。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE在10月投产，70万吨/年 的中石油广西石化11月投产。塑料开工率略有上升。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单开始下降，旺季成色 不及预期，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求开始减少，农膜价格开始下跌，预计后续下游开工 率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足，刚需为主，贸易商对后市谨慎，普遍降价积极出货。国家发展改 革委会同有关部门 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and with the weakening cost support, it is expected that plastics will continue to show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On November 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. The new capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) were recently put into production, and the plastic operating rate decreased slightly [1][4]. - As of the week of November 21, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69% month - on - month. The agricultural film is still in the peak season with stable orders, but the peak season is less than expected. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline in the future [1][4]. - In November, the destocking of petrochemicals slowed down, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in the same period in recent years. The Wednesday petrochemical early inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 655,000 tons, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year [1][4]. - The cost of raw material oil decreased. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that the latest sanctions imposed by the US and the West did not affect Russia's oil production. Trump's administration tried to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky showed an open attitude towards peace talks, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The plastic 2601 contract decreased by 1.31% to close at 6,707 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 9,240 lots to 497,599 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with the price change ranging from - 80 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,770 - 7,150 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,620 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,930 - 7,600 yuan/ton [3].