- FRANGED 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月7日 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 IF2512 市场冲高兑现预期后稍有回调,降波等待企稳。三 IH2512 科技板块全线回暖,股指放量上行 季报发布后,A股整体处于再定价调整中,短期常 股指 IC2512 见反弹,下方风险有限,推荐观望为主。 IM2512 后续将会进入10月份经济数据公布阶段,信贷数 T2512 据预期又概率走弱,债市定价可能向基本面倾斜。 TF2512 权益市场偏强,压制债市边际走弱 国债 TS2512 单边策略上建议投资者可以适当做多。期现策略上 由于IRR上升,可以关注正套策略机会。 金融 TL2512 短期国际金价以震荡整理走势为主,运行区间在 美联储官员对12月降息分歧持续 英国央行暂停降息 贵金属冲 AU2512 贵金属 3900-4030美元;白银跟随黄金波动在47-49美 AG2512 高回落 元之间运行 集运指数 短期震荡,建议逢低做多12合约 EC2512 EC主力下行 (欧线) 钢材 1月合约铁元素供应宽松,多煤空卷持有 单边观望,多焦煤空热卷套利持有 ...

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月6日 一 - 3 H 5 F 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 IF2512 市场冲高兑现预期后稍有回调,降波等待企稳。三 IH2512 股指 A股韧性较强,阶段性企稳反弹 季报发布后,A股整体处于再定价调整中,交易情 IC2512 络偏冷,方向暂未明确,推荐观望为主。 IM2512 鉴于整体市场情绪有所好转,预计债券利率波动区 间总体有所下移,短期10年期国债活跃券 T2512 250016.IB的波动区间可能在1.75%-1.8%,且 TF2512 国债 资金面向宽,期债窄幅震荡 央行国债买卖重启,影响利率顶部、期债底部更加 TS2512 夯实。单边策略上建议投资者可以逢调整适当做多 金融 TL2512 。期现策略上由于IRR上升,可以关注正套策略机 40 短期国际金价企稳3900美元(900元)仍以震荡 美国宏观就业数据略有改善 政府停摆亟待结束缓和流动性紧张 AU2512 整理走势为主,运行区间在3900-4030美元;日 贵金属 AG2512 贵金属止跌回升 银跟随黄金波动在47-49美元之间运行 集运指数 ...

张晓玲 70003135 | 品种 | 11月4日 | 11月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 6879 | ୧888 | -9 | -0.13% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7005 | 7020 | -15 | -0.21% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6560 | 6576 | -16 | -0.24% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 6689 | 6692 | -3 | -0.04% | | | L2509-2601 | 126 | 132 | -6 | -4.55% | | | PP2509-2601 | 129 | 116 | 13 | 11.21% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 6500 | 6460 | 40 | 0.62% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 6780 | 6800 | -20 | -0.29% | | | 华北 LL基差 | -100 | -90 | -10 | 11.11% | | | 华东 pp基差 | -60 | -100 ...

- - 3 - 1 - 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年11月5日 欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 IF2512 市场冲高兑现预期后稍有回调,降波等待企稳。三 IH2512 股指低开调整,红利板块护盘 股指 季报发布后,A股整体处于再定价调整中,交易情 IC2512 绪偏冷,方向暂未明确,推荐观望为主。 IM2512 鉴于整体市场情绪有所好转,预计债券利率波动区 T2512 间总体有所下移,短期10年期国债活跃券 TF2512 国债 央行买债规模低于预期,期债短期震荡 250016.IB的波动区间可能在1.75%-1.8%。单 TS2512 边策略上建议投资者可以逢调整适当做多。期现策 金融 TL2512 略上由于IRR上升,可以关注正套策略机会。 黄金短期回调压力增加但下方买盘力量仍存,短期 国际金呈现宽幅波动若跌破3900美元(900元) AU2512 可以择机逢低买入,后期仍以震荡整理走势为主: 贵金属 流动性收紧打击全球金融市场 美元走强贵金属盘中下跌 AG2512 白银跟随黄金下探可能至45美元(11000元)的 前低位附近,短期维持观望 集运 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月5日 本报告风节。 本讯 一周年来 天 Z0003135 张晓珍 | 品种 | 11月4日 | 11月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 6879 | 6888 | -d | -0.13% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7005 | 7020 | -15 | -0.21% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6560 | 6576 | -16 | -0.24% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | ୧୧୫୪ | 6692 | -3 | -0.04% | | | L2509-2601 | 126 | 132 | -6 | -4.55% | | | PP2509-2601 | 129 | 116 | 13 | 11.21% | 元/吨 | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 6500 | 6460 | 40 | 0.62% | | | 华北LLDPE膜料现货 | 6780 | 6800 | -20 | -0.29% | ...

欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 市场冲高兑现预期后稍有回调,震荡为主,降波企 IF2512 稳。可尝试轻仓卖出支撑位看跌期权,参考中证 IH2512 股指 市场持续缩量震荡,顺周期板块占优 IC2512 1000执行价7000左右,或以看跌期权构建牛市 认购价差,捕捉后续上行空间。 IM2512 鉴于整体市场情绪有所好转,预计债券利率波动区 T2512 间总体有所下移,10年期国债活跃券250016.IB TF2512 的波动区间可能在1.75%-1.85%。单边策略上建 期债走势震荡,关注10月国债买卖是否重启 国债 TS2512 议投资者可以逢调整适当做多。期现策略上由于 TL2512 金融 IRR上升,可以关注正套策略机会。 短期行情缺乏明确驱动情况下将转入震荡阶段波动 率持续回落,国际金价或在3995-4070美元 AU2512 贵金属 美联储官员对降息仍有分歧 贵金属延续窄幅波动 (910-935元)区间运行,以波动操作为主或逢 AG2512 高卖出虚值黄金看跌期权:白银整体维持震荡格局 在47-50美元(11000-11700元)区间波动 集运指数 短期震荡,建议逢低做多 ...

Report Overview - The report consists of four parts: Polyolefin Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, Pure Benzene - Styrene Daily Report, Polyester Industry Chain Daily Report, and Chlor - Alkali Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report, covering price, inventory, and开工率 data of multiple chemical products, along with corresponding investment strategies [2][4][9][10] Polyolefin Industry Price Changes - L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all increased on October 29, with L2601 up 0.34%, L2509 up 0.06%, PP2601 up 0.42%, and PP2509 up 0.37% [2] - Some spot prices remained stable, while华北LDPE膜料现货 rose 0.15% [2] Inventory and开工率 - PE企业 inventory decreased by 19.16% to 41.6 tons, and社会库存 decreased slightly by 0.04% to 54.5 tons [2] - PP企业 inventory decreased by 6.80% to 59.5 tons, and贸易商库存 decreased by 10.48% to 21.4 tons [2] - PE装置开工率 decreased by 0.37% to 81.5%, while下游加权开工率 increased by 1.85% to 45.8% [2] - PP装置开工率 decreased by 2.9% to 75.9%, while粉料开工率 increased by 7.1% to 41.4%, and下游加权开工率 increased by 1.0% to 52.4% [2] Core View - PP supply recovery slowed due to more unplanned maintenance, while PE supply is expected to increase. Demand improved, and both inventories decreased. Consider long - term low - buying opportunities for the 05 contract and track sanctions' impact on refinery loads [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and WTI原油 increased slightly on October 29, while纯苯中石化华东挂牌价 remained unchanged [4] -苯乙烯华东现货 and related futures prices increased, with苯乙烯华东现货 up 0.6% [5] Inventory and开工率 -纯苯江苏港口库存 decreased by 14.1% to 8.50 tons, and苯乙烯江苏港口库存 decreased by 4.7% to 19.30 tons [7] -亚洲纯苯开工率 remained unchanged at 79.2%, while国内纯苯开工率 decreased by 3.6% to 72.7% [8] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream prices such as布伦特原油 and CFR日本石脑油 increased slightly on October 29 [9] - Most下游聚酯 product prices remained stable, with聚酯切片 price up 0.1% [9] Inventory and开工率 - MEG港口库存 decreased by 9.7% to 52.3 tons, and到港预期 increased significantly by 273.6% to 19.8 tons [9] -亚洲PX开工率 increased by 0.5% to 78.5%, and中国PX开工率 increased by 1.0% to 85.9% [9] Core View - PX supply contracted, and demand support strengthened. However, PX rebound space is limited. PTA,乙二醇,短纤, and瓶片 also have corresponding supply - demand situations and investment strategies [9] Chlor - Alkali Industry Price Changes -山东32%液碱折百价 and山东50%液碱折百价 remained unchanged on October 29, while华东电石法PVC市场价 increased by 0.4% [10] Inventory and开工率 -烧碱行业开工率 increased slightly by 0.1% to 85.6%, and烧碱山东样本开工率 increased by 3.2% to 86.6% [13] - PVC总开工率 decreased by 1.9% to 73.7% [13] Core View - No specific core view was mentioned in the text, but price, inventory, and开工率 data can be used for investment analysis

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, macro - sentiment has improved, which has re - boosted market risk appetite. The release of a loose - money signal has strengthened the expectation of a rise in bond futures, while the weakening of risk aversion has increased the decline of precious metals. Different commodity sectors show various trends based on their respective fundamentals and market factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: With the improvement of macro - sentiment, all stock index futures have risen. For trading, it is advisable to try to lightly sell put options at the support level or construct a bull call spread [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The expectation of loose money has strengthened, and bond futures are expected to rise, though short - term fluctuations may occur due to multiple factors. Trading strategies include buying on dips and considering positive arbitrage strategies [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The risk aversion has subsided. Gold has stronger upward - driving forces, and it is recommended to buy at low levels below $4000. Silver may face pressure if gold falls after a short - term correction [3]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The main EC contract is oscillating in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: The apparent demand has recovered, and steel prices have strengthened following coal prices. Attention should be paid to the previous high pressure for long positions, and the arbitrage of long coking coal and short hot - rolled coil can be held [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipment and arrival have declined, port inventory has increased, and iron ore has rebounded steadily. Trading strategies include buying on dips and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of origin coal is strong, and downstream replenishment demand has recovered. It is recommended to buy coking coal on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the festival, and the second - round increase has been officially implemented with expectations of further increases. Buy on dips and conduct relevant arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: Sino - US preliminary consensus has led to a new high in copper prices. Attention should be paid to the support near 86,000 [3]. - **Alumina**: Although the spot trading is active, the short - term surplus situation is difficult to change, with the main contract operating in the range of 2,750 - 2,950 [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is running strongly, and the spot discount has widened. The main contract range is 20,800 - 21,400 [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The inventory has shown an inflection point, and the market is following the upward trend of aluminum prices. The main contract range is 20,200 - 20,800 [3]. - **Zinc**: The squeeze of LME zinc and macro - benefits have led to a slight increase in zinc prices. The main contract range is 21,800 - 22,800 [3]. - **Tin**: Supported by strong fundamentals, tin prices are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Nickel**: The market is oscillating, and the fundamentals are weak during the policy window period. The main contract range is 120,000 - 128,000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is mainly oscillating, and the cost support is weak. The main contract range is 12,500 - 13,000 [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: The progress of the Sino - US trade agreement has alleviated market concerns about demand, and the short - term oil price is in a range. It is not advisable to chase high in the short term [3]. - **Urea**: The daily output is expected to increase gradually, and the supply is sufficient. The short - term improvement of the market is limited [3]. - **PX and PTA**: The cost center has risen, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels for long positions and relevant arbitrage operations [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The inventory pressure is not large, and the short - term support is strong. The trading strategy is similar to that of PTA [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The supply - demand pattern of bottle chips remains loose, and the processing fee is expected to decline in the short term [3]. - **Ethanol**: The short - term supply has slightly decreased, but the long - term supply - demand structure is weak. Relevant trading strategies include selling out - of - the - money call options and conducting reverse arbitrage [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot trading is okay, and the price is stable. It is recommended to be short in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is low, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to stop loss on short positions [3]. - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand is relatively loose, and the price drive is limited. It will follow the oscillations of styrene and oil prices in the short term [3]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and the price may be under pressure. It is recommended to be short on the rebound of the December contract [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost support is weakening, but the supply is tightening. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **LLDPE**: The cost has risen sharply, and the trading has improved. Attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction inflection point [3]. - **PP**: The price has risen sharply, the basis has weakened slightly, and the trading is good. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Methanol**: The price is stable, and the trading is okay. Attention should be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunity of the March - May spread [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: The warming of Sino - US relations provides cost support for near - month soybeans. It is recommended to go long on the 2026 January contract [3]. - **Pig**: Secondary fattening has increased the difficulty of slaughterhouses' procurement, boosting pig prices. It is recommended to exit the March - July reverse arbitrage and wait and see [3]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure remains, and the market is oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the support near 2,100 [3]. - **Oil**: The market focuses on Sino - US negotiations, and the domestic soybean oil fundamentals are bearish. The main palm oil contract may test the support of 9,000 yuan [3]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply is loose, and the overall trend is bearish, oscillating at the bottom near 5,400 [3]. - **Cotton**: The cost of new cotton is gradually solidified, and the market is oscillating in the range of 13,200 - 13,600 [3]. - **Egg**: The spot price has risen, and it is a rebound from an oversold situation. Attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [3]. - **Apple**: The apple trading in the eastern region is active, and the price of high - quality goods has increased significantly. The main contract may break through and stabilize above 9,000 points [3]. - **Jujube**: The market sentiment is weak, and the market is oscillating downward. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 10,000 - 10,300 [3]. - **Soda Ash**: The market is strongly affected by large - factory production cuts. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [3]. Special Commodity Sector - **Glass**: The trading volume has increased, and it is necessary to pay attention to the follow - up of the spot market. It is recommended to stop loss on previous short positions and monitor the spot market [3]. - **Rubber**: The raw material price has continued to rebound, and the rubber price has continued to rise. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract has changed, and the market is mainly oscillating. The price range is 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [3]. New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon**: The main contract has changed, and positive news has stimulated the market to rise. The price is oscillating at a high level [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market remains strong, and the strong demand is gradually being realized. The main contract reference range is 80,000 - 84,000 yuan [3].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年10月22日 张晓珍 70003135 | 品种 | 10月21日 | 10月20日 | 消歧夫 | 派扶帽 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 6883 | 6879 | 4 | 0.06% | | | L2509 收盘价 | ears | ears | 0 | 0.00% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6283 | 6565 | 18 | 0.27% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 6647 | 6650 | -3 | -0.05% | 元/吨 | | L2509-2601 | ea | 13 | -4 | -5.48% | | | PP2509-2601 | 64 | 85 | -21 | -24.71% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 6470 | 6470 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 6840 | 6840 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华北 LL基差 | -40 | -40 | 0 | 0.00% | | ...

欢迎关注微信公众号 主力合约 品种 点评 操作建议 板块 中美贸易摩擦处于互相试探阶段,参考4月关税冲 突演变,市场风险偏好短期内可能受到压制,但此 IF2512 轮双方大概率仍以增强谈判前的强势态度为主,摩 擦性质大于实质冲突,股指以先跌后反弹为主,中 IH2512 主线或进入轮动,股指高开震荡 股指 长期不改上行大趋势。短期波动可能适当放大。若 IC2512 保守为主,可等待波动有所收敛再逢低入场,亦可 IM2512 尝试轻仓卖出支撑位看跌期权,参考中证1000执 行价7000左右。 T2512 目前政策因素尚未落地,建议单边策略观望为主。 金融 TF2512 国债 期债走弱,关注关键会议和增量政策情况 期现策略,由于IRR回升,可以关注TL合约正套 TS2512 若风险缓和需谨防多空转换带来黄金回调风险,价 格暂时转入震荡整理等待新的因素发酵,建议保持 AU2512 市场风险偏好有所回升 贵金属无惧"过热"与美国等同步上涨 贵金属 逢低买入思路;短期价格跟随黄金波动在51美元 AG2512 上方波动,单边操作需谨慎,可观察波动率回落趋 势卖出虚值看跌期权 集运指数 EC2512 EC主力盘面下行 短期波 ...