当前，全球经济增长放缓，外部环境的不确定性、不稳定性增加。通过"坚持内需主导"，有助于增强我 国经济发展的自主性、稳定性和韧性，以中国经济高质量发展的确定性应对外部挑战。 商务部研究院流通与消费研究所研究员关利欣表示，从问题导向看，明年我国面临的外部环境变化影响 加深，国内供强需弱矛盾突出，亟须通过持续扩大内需、优化供给，充分挖掘经济潜能。从目标导向 看，强大国内市场是中国式现代化的战略依托，要通过政策支持和改革创新并举，建设强大国内市场， 实现"十五五"良好开局。 中央经济工作会议明确指出"国内供强需弱矛盾突出"。当前经济运行中消费内生动力不强，我国居民消 费率与发达国家相比仍有差距，特别是服务消费占比偏低等问题较为突出。扩大内需是打通经济循环堵 点、推动经济持续回升向好的关键。 "这是基于对当前国内外经济形势的深刻研判。"国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所市场流通研究室主 任陈丽芬表示，从国内看，当前我国经济发展面临有效需求不足、国内大循环存在卡点堵点等制约；从 国际看，外部环境变化影响加深，面临的不确定性增大。将扩大内需确立为主导战略，以内需的稳定发 展对冲外需的不确定性，筑牢中国经济内生动力的基石，这也 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's economy is expected to show resilience and vitality despite external challenges and domestic supply-demand imbalances, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and enhancing the quality of goods and services [1] Group 1: Economic Strategy - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a primary strategy for economic development, aiming to build a strong domestic market [1] - The strategy includes increasing the supply of high-quality goods and services, which is seen as essential for modernizing China's economy [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current issue in China's consumption market has shifted from "supply shortage" to "supply-demand mismatch," where consumers seek high-quality and personalized products that are not adequately supplied [2] - Expanding the supply of quality goods and services is not merely about increasing quantity but about aligning production with consumer needs, enhancing product quality, and improving service professionalism [2][3] Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Market Trends - Consumer spending is transitioning from "survival-type" to "enjoyment-type," with a significant increase in service consumption, projected to reach 46.1% of per capita spending by 2024 [3] - There is a growing demand for high-quality domestic products and green intelligent products, indicating a shift towards quality-oriented consumption [3] Group 4: Challenges in Supply Expansion - Key challenges in expanding the supply of quality goods and services include avoiding supply-demand misalignment, preventing quality traps, and addressing regional imbalances in supply availability [4][5] - It is crucial to ensure that supply is guided by market demand, emphasizing innovation and quality while also balancing urban and rural supply [4][5]

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent Central Economic Work Conference is to prioritize domestic demand and build a strong domestic market as the main task for economic work in the coming year [1] - The current economic situation reveals a contradiction of "strong supply but weak demand," indicating that while domestic supply capacity is robust, effective demand remains insufficient [1][2] - The strategy of expanding domestic demand is seen as a direct approach to address structural contradictions, aiming to stabilize the domestic cycle to counter external uncertainties [1][5] Group 2 - The conference outlines six interconnected strategies to achieve the goal of "domestic demand-led growth," emphasizing the importance of both increasing income and optimizing supply to stimulate consumption [2] - Specific initiatives include the implementation of consumption promotion actions and urban resident income increase plans, which aim to enhance consumer purchasing power and improve the quality of goods and services available [2][3] - Investment stabilization and urban renewal are highlighted as long-term strategies to boost demand and improve supply structure, with examples of effective projects that enhance both investment and living standards [3][4] Group 3 - The focus on domestic demand is fundamentally about enhancing residents' consumption capacity and experience, which is essential for stimulating internal demand [4] - The strategy is not intended to neglect external markets but rather to create a new development pattern that promotes both domestic and international cycles, leveraging external surpluses and internal capacities for stronger growth [5]

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to prioritize domestic demand and build a strong domestic market, highlighting the growing trend of the ice and snow economy across the country [1] - The conference stated that it is essential to fully tap into economic potential, with innovative ice and snow cultural and entertainment activities expanding potential space for the cultural tourism industry [2] Group 2 - The demand side is experiencing a surge, while the supply side is showcasing diverse offerings, indicating that the potential of the ice and snow economy is limitless [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the market logic is expected to shift from liquidity-driven to profit-recovery - driven. The strategic adjustment of "building a strong domestic market" and the "anti - involution" policy will improve domestic demand and deflation expectations. Multiple leading indicators suggest that PPI may enter an upward channel, and corporate profit recovery is expected, but the repair strength may be weaker than in 2021. The market may continue to re - balance in the short - term, with the large - cap value style having an advantage, and profit - recovery opportunities will be the key theme for the A - share market in 2026 [4]. Summary by Directory I. Indexes Break through the Oscillation Pattern 1.1 Market Review: Ample Liquidity as the Core Driver of Index Market - In the 2025 annual report, it was predicted that the index market would show an "N" shape, driven by the ample liquidity from the "rush - to - export" expectation. However, China's exports maintained strong resilience after the "rush - to - export" trend cooled, and the obvious profit - repair trend was delayed. The A - share market oscillated in Q1, adjusted in April due to Trump's "reciprocal tariff" remarks, and then rose as policies took effect. In Q3, multiple factors supported the market, and in Q4, the driving force shifted from liquidity to profit - repair expectation [8]. 1.2 Industry Performance: Precious Metals Lead the Non - ferrous Metals Industry - In 2025, industry performance was significantly differentiated. Precious - metal - related non - ferrous metals led the increase due to Trump's tariff policy, the Middle East situation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. As of December 16, communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had high gains, while food and beverage and coal had losses. Different styles dominated at different times, and the large - cap value style became attractive in Q4 [11]. 1.3 Index Basis: Multiple Factors Lead to Increased Index Discount - The A - share market's trading activity increased in 2025, and the small - and medium - cap style was strong. The market - neutral strategy's scale expanded, increasing the hedging demand for stock - index futures. High dividend payouts and the decline of snowball products also contributed to the deepening discount of stock - index futures [13][14]. II. Market Valuation: Focus on Profit - Driven Valuation Digestion 2.1 CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes: Significant Valuation Repair - As of December 16, the price - to - book ratios of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes were at relatively high historical levels, at 72.84% and 50.04% of the past 10 - year levels respectively [19]. 2.2 SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes: Valuation Divergence - As of December 16, the price - to - earnings ratios of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes were at relatively high historical levels, while the price - to - book ratios were relatively lower. This divergence was due to the valuation recovery since September 2024, and future profit levels will be crucial for digestion and repair [22]. 2.3 Index Crowding: Large - Cap Value Style May Continue to Dominate - The index crowding degree reflects market allocation enthusiasm. In 2025, the small - and medium - cap growth style was popular in most of the year, but the large - cap value style became more attractive in Q4 due to its low valuation and high profit certainty [24][25]. 2.4 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness: Lower Priority of Relative Valuation Attention - The stock - bond cost - effectiveness indicator shows that the stock market is at a relatively low level. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the narrowing of the China - US monetary - policy cycle gap, the domestic interest - rate cut window is opening. In the current situation, the priority of relative valuation attention can be shifted, and more attention can be paid to other driving factors [28][31]. 2.5 Valuation Summary - After the continuous valuation repair in 2025, the A - share market's relative valuation advantage over bonds has weakened but is not at an extreme level. There is a differentiation in the market, and the large - cap value style is expected to continue to dominate [33]. III. Supply and Demand Drive, Profit Level Recovery Expected 3.1 Strategic Adjustment of "Insufficient Domestic Demand" Response, Marginal Relief of Consumption Downturn Expected - China's economic problem has been insufficient domestic demand. The policy response is shifting from short - term demand stimulation to long - term market cultivation and system construction. The "construction of a strong domestic market" aims to improve residents' purchasing power and consumption confidence, which is expected to relieve the consumption downturn [34][35]. 3.2 "Anti - Involution" Improves Deflation Expectations, Profit Level Recovery Expected - PPI is expected to enter an upward channel in 2026 and turn positive year - on - year around mid - year. Fiscal, credit, and monetary data all indicate a turning point in the industrial - product price cycle. The profit level has shown an initial recovery trend [41][42]. IV. Asset Allocation Transfer Signs Appear, Capital Account Pressure May Continue to Ease 4.1 Interest - Rate Decline and Dividend Improvement Drive Asset Allocation Transfer - In 2025, the LPR was lowered, and bank deposit rates decreased, making deposits less attractive. At the same time, listed companies increased shareholder returns. As a result, funds flowed from the banking system to the non - banking financial sector, bringing incremental liquidity to the A - share market [50][53]. 4.2 Change in Dominant Factors of the US Dollar, Capital and Financial Account Pressure May Ease - The US dollar's role is changing from a counter - cyclical asset to a pro - cyclical asset due to the expansion of US debt and geopolitical risks. The weakening of the US dollar is expected to support the RMB exchange rate and ease the pressure on China's capital and financial accounts [58][61]. 4.3 Exports Maintain Resilience, Current Account May Face Pressure in H1 2026 - China's exports are expected to remain stable in 2026, with a "low - then - high" growth pattern. Exports may face pressure in H1 due to a high base in 2025 and difficulties in the US market's import recovery. However, the diversification of the export market and the upgrade of export - product competitiveness will provide support [64][67]. V. Summary: Profit - Level Repair Strength May Be the Key Driving Factor - In 2026, the market's core driving force is expected to shift to profit repair. Policies will improve domestic demand and deflation expectations, and multiple indicators suggest PPI may rise and corporate profits may recover. Asset allocation transfer and a favorable capital environment will support the market. The A - share market is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner, with the large - cap value style being attractive in the short - term [72]. - Short - term strategy: The index may continue to oscillate, and the previous long - IF and short - IM hedging portfolio is recommended to be held. Directional traders can enter the market at low prices based on profit - repair expectations. - Medium - and long - term strategy: The current valuation repair is ahead of profit recovery. The profit - recovery situation will be crucial for the market. The stock - index market may see a resonance between profit and valuation in 2026 [73].

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work meeting emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as the primary task for 2026, marking a shift from short-term demand expansion to establishing a long-term mechanism for sustainable growth [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Demand as a Priority - The meeting prioritizes expanding effective demand, particularly domestic demand, highlighting its critical role in stabilizing growth and driving high-quality development amid rising external uncertainties [2][8]. - Experts suggest that strengthening the domestic market is essential for China's modernization strategy, aiming to enhance domestic circulation stability to counter international uncertainties [2][3]. Group 2: Strategies for Enhancing Domestic Demand - A dual approach is proposed: immediate actions to boost consumption through the removal of unreasonable restrictions and long-term policies to optimize supply and demand alignment [3][4]. - The introduction of a systematic "urban and rural residents' income increase plan" signifies a fundamental shift in expanding domestic demand logic, focusing on enhancing consumer capacity and income [4][5]. Group 3: Service Consumption as a New Growth Engine - The meeting highlights the importance of releasing service consumption potential, particularly in sectors like elderly care, cultural tourism, and digital entertainment, to enhance consumer choices and experiences [5][6]. - The integration of service consumption with the "Two New" policies aims to elevate the digital and intelligent levels of the service industry, fostering a more resilient domestic demand ecosystem [6][7]. Group 4: Stimulating Private Investment - The meeting calls for effective stimulation of private investment, noting a 4.5% year-on-year increase in private investment in infrastructure for the first ten months of 2025, with a focus on sectors like AI and green energy [7][8]. - High-quality urban renewal is identified as a key pathway to expand effective investment while optimizing the consumption environment [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of domestic demand as the main driver of economic growth and the need to build a strong domestic market as a strategic foundation for China's modernization [1][2] - The Central Economic Work Conference has identified eight key tasks for economic work in the coming year, with the first being to "insist on domestic demand as the main driver and build a strong domestic market" [1][2] - The contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth reached 53.5% in the first three quarters, an increase of 9 percentage points compared to the previous year, highlighting the role of domestic demand in driving economic growth [2] Group 2 - Expanding domestic demand is seen as a strategic measure to counter external shocks and promote high-quality development, with a focus on creating a complete domestic demand system [3] - The construction of a strong domestic market requires prioritizing the stimulation of consumption, with plans to increase residents' consumption rates and enhance consumer capacity [4] - Investment plays a crucial role in optimizing supply structure, with a call for government investment to stabilize and increase, while also encouraging private investment through new policy tools [5]

Group 1 - The core focus of the Central Economic Work Conference is to emphasize the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, with a strong commitment to building a robust domestic market as the primary task for economic work in the coming year [1][2] - Domestic demand has become the main driver of economic growth, contributing an average of 86.4% to economic growth from 2021 to 2024, with final consumption accounting for 56.2%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points compared to the previous five-year period [1][2] - China remains the second-largest consumer market globally, the largest online retail market, and the second-largest import market, indicating a strong position in the global economy [1] Group 2 - The strategy of expanding domestic demand has been increasingly prioritized in recent years, with its significance highlighted in the macroeconomic policy requirements and the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - The conference emphasizes the need to strengthen domestic circulation to counter uncertainties in international circulation, reinforcing the dominant role of domestic demand [2] Group 3 - To boost domestic demand, there is a strong emphasis on increasing consumer spending, which is seen as a key driver for economic growth [3] - The conference proposes the implementation of a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income, alongside special actions to stimulate consumption, aiming to stabilize and expand residents' income and restore consumer confidence [3] - The focus is also on creating a favorable market environment for consumption by optimizing project implementation and removing unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector [3] Group 4 - The conference highlights the importance of stabilizing investment as a crucial support for boosting domestic demand, with government investment playing a pivotal role [4] - There is a call to encourage private investment by creating a fair competitive environment and removing hidden barriers to attract private capital for major projects [4] - The emphasis on high-quality urban renewal is aimed at enhancing the sense of gain, happiness, and security among the populace, which is essential for driving economic and social development [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese economy is expected to grow around 5% this year, maintaining its position as the largest engine of global economic growth, despite facing various internal and external challenges [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Performance and Projections - The Chinese economy has shown resilience and vitality, with major economic indicators performing better than expected, and the total economic output is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year [1]. - The central economic work conference identified eight key tasks for the upcoming year, with a focus on domestic demand and building a strong domestic market [3]. Group 2: Challenges to Economic Development - External factors such as geopolitical conflicts, rising protectionism, and instability in global supply chains are impacting economic growth [2]. - Domestic issues include weak consumer demand, insufficient investment growth, and challenges faced by enterprises, leading to difficulties in production and sales [2][3]. Group 3: Policy Recommendations and Actions - The government plans to implement policies to stimulate consumption and investment, including a special action plan to boost consumer spending and a plan to increase urban and rural residents' income [3]. - There is a need to optimize the use of local government special bonds and enhance the role of new policy financial tools to invigorate private investment [4]. Group 4: Risk Management - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of risk management, particularly in addressing local government debt and ensuring financial stability [5]. - Measures will be taken to prevent the accumulation of hidden debts and to support the resolution of risks in local small financial institutions [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of "stability while seeking progress" and "improving quality and efficiency" for economic development, with a focus on enhancing risk management and supporting the real economy through financial services [1] Group 1: Strategic Focus - The company aims to strengthen risk management support for the real economy in alignment with the strategy to "build a strong domestic market" [1] - The company will drive service model innovation through digital transformation, responding to the requirement of "accelerating the cultivation of new growth drivers" [1] - The company plans to integrate professional services into rural revitalization practices, adhering to the important guideline of "coordinated development" [1] - The company will implement strategies related to "dual carbon" initiatives, utilizing green financial tools to support the transformation of development methods [1]