天天基金9月5日重磅推出小宇宙播客「基会来了」，首期即邀请大消费行业专家、泉 果消费机遇基金经理孙伟与知名财经播客 「 听懂涨声 」 主理人杨天楠参与访谈，来 了一场走心深聊。 「 基会来了」主持人白若冰作为90后和基民嘴替，和这两位80后，就新消费话题将擦 出怎样的火花？又将为基民朋友们解锁怎样的牛市消费投资攻略呢？ 欢迎大家扫码收听本期播客 对话者： 孙伟 | 泉果基金董事总经理、泉果消费机遇基金经理 杨天楠 | 知名财经播客「听懂涨声」主播 白若冰 | 天天基金播客「基会来了」主持人 新消费是"昙花一现"， 还是会持续崛起？ 杨天楠： 如何判断某个新消费赛道是"昙花一现"，还是会持续崛起？ 孙伟： 很多新消费公司一开始估值会很高，这是大家对它成长空间的不确定性的定价。不过这些 公司股价下行的空间也可能很大，也许（只是到）第二年、第三年，公司就死掉了。 所以，首先我们做二级市场投资会定一个门槛，比如说饮料卖到了3个亿或5个亿，才会进入到我 们的视野。这是提高投资胜率的必要方法之一。 第二，一定要对这个行业的商业模式有系统性思考。它是不是一个有规模效应的行业，这是我在 新消费投资里最看重的一点。 长期来说， ...

□ 本报记者 闫 利 文/摄 近年来，银发经济不再只是轮椅、养老院、保健品等的代名词，而是涵盖多元领域的消费场景。从健康管理到文娱体验，再到 智能产品，越来越多的领域关注老年人需求，但当前银发经济市场缺乏完善的服务标准和市场规范，不可避免地出现购买了实 时监测心率和跌倒的智能手表，老年使用者却觉得充电太麻烦；报了老年旅行团，旅游路线千篇一律，出游就是打卡景点和全 程购物等情况。 国家税务总局最新数据显示，2025年上半年，全国从事银发产品生产制造主体户数同比增长14.1%；适老类健身器材制造、康 复辅具制造、营养保健食品制造销售收入同比分别增长14.7%、12.1%、6.9%，较全国制造业平均增速分别高出9.5个百分点、 6.9个百分点和1.7个百分点。面对快速发展的市场，如何真正读懂老年人的需求，助力银发经济高质量发展？ 消费"不适老"困境依旧存在 "孩子给我买了智能手表，能定位，能监测心率、血氧、跌倒等，可是每天佩戴太麻烦，充电也不方便，我老是忘记。"日前， 记者在北京市天坛公园游览时，跟随某老年旅行团出行的六旬老人向记者问路时说起，"今天我是因为出门旅游，就戴上了智 能手表，让孩子安心；平时在家，用不到 ...

Core Insights - The silver economy in China is rapidly growing, with a current scale of approximately 7 trillion yuan, projected to reach 30 trillion yuan by 2035 [1] - Despite the potential, the market faces challenges such as demand realization difficulties, industry homogenization, and policy implementation gaps [9][10] Group 1: Market Trends - Increasing interest in AI courses for the elderly indicates a shift towards technology adoption among older consumers [4] - The main areas of consumption growth for the elderly are health management, cultural and entertainment experiences, and smart products [5] - A significant 73.5% of elderly respondents desire a more trendy lifestyle, with 57% willing to pay for improved quality of life [6] Group 2: Challenges - There is a mismatch between the consumption demand and payment willingness among the elderly, leading to low conversion rates for products [11] - The market is saturated with homogeneous products, particularly in the tourism sector, which stifles innovation and service upgrades [13][14] - Policy measures aimed at supporting the elderly often face implementation challenges, with many initiatives failing to reach their intended beneficiaries effectively [16] Group 3: Opportunities for Growth - Companies are encouraged to develop differentiated products based on a comprehensive understanding of the elderly's diverse needs [18] - Establishing a demand-driven funding allocation system and enhancing the accessibility of services can stimulate consumption among the elderly [19] - The silver economy should focus on creating a supportive ecosystem that not only meets the material needs of the elderly but also enhances their dignity and sense of value [20]

序 越没有用的东西买的越贵 越是虚无的需求市场越大 O 论公众号:木易司丢丢 一个塑料玩偶拉布布，拍出了108万的天价，中老年人的土味爽剧一年烧掉504亿，悄悄超过了年轻人看电影的425亿。 有人月薪5000，却花2000养猫；有人凌晨排队，只为了一个盲盒。所有人都在问："是不是中国人的钱太多了？"错！恰恰相反，这证明中国人的钱太少 了，少到只能用来买一样东西：情绪！ 那么到底是谁在为情绪买单呢？ 答案藏在下面两个数字里。 但现如今这6亿人打破了循环，3亿单身的没有家庭要养，3亿来人的家已经养完了，他们的收入第一次可以完全自主支配，这看似是个人的选择，实则是 生产关系变革的必然。 先来说3亿单身大军的形成。 很多人以为是因为"穷"，错！确实，现在结婚的成本百万起步，但过去的人更穷，为什么反而结婚的人更多呢？真相藏在了生产方式的变革中。 农业社会，婚姻是生产单位，夫妻合作种地。但在工业社会，每个人都成了独立的打工者，婚姻从生产工具变成了消费负担。关键是女性地位的革命。 1980年城镇女性就业率仅为30%，现在超过了60%，当女性经济独立了之后，那么传统分工的基础就崩塌了，以此同时，在男性996压榨之下，也无力承 ...

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the development of the silver economy in response to the aging population, with projections indicating that by 2024, the elderly population (aged 65 and above) will reach 220 million, accounting for 15.6% of the total population [1][3] - The aging process in China is accelerating, with significant disparities between regions and urban-rural areas, necessitating a comprehensive approach to elder care and services [1][5] Group 1: Aging Population and Economic Impact - The silver economy has surpassed 10 trillion yuan, with its share of the national economy continuously increasing, projected to reach 20% by 2035 [8][3] - The traditional perception underestimates the consumption potential of the elderly, indicating a need for better understanding of their demands [6][7] Group 2: Systematic Development of Elderly Care - The past five years have seen a shift from isolated breakthroughs in elderly services to a more integrated system approach, focusing on the construction of a comprehensive elderly care service system [3][4] - The government is enhancing the policy and institutional framework for elderly care, promoting a coordinated service system from community to institutional levels [4][5] Group 3: Challenges in Supply and Demand - There is a structural imbalance in the supply of elderly services, primarily provided by small and medium enterprises that lack sufficient policy support [7][8] - The demand for elderly services is growing, but the current supply does not adequately meet the needs of the elderly population [10][11] Group 4: Technological Integration - The application of AI and robotics in elderly care can alleviate the shortage of caregivers and improve service efficiency, although ethical concerns regarding technology use must be addressed [9][10] - The integration of technology in elderly care presents both opportunities and challenges, particularly in identifying suitable applications for robots in this sector [9][10] Group 5: Financial and Policy Support - The development of a multi-pillar pension system is essential for addressing the challenges of the current pension model, which relies heavily on a pay-as-you-go system [14][15] - Macro policies, including structural monetary tools, are being implemented to support the development of the elderly care industry, emphasizing the need for financial security alongside returns [17][18]

Core Insights - The integration of consumption stimulation and improving people's livelihoods is crucial for activating domestic demand and promoting high-quality economic development [1][3] - Expanding domestic demand is essential for stabilizing growth, with consumption contributing over 60% to economic growth in recent years [1] - Recent policies aimed at boosting consumption have shown significant effects, including innovations in consumption scenarios and the emergence of new growth points like the ice and snow economy and silver-haired consumption [1] Policy Implementation Challenges - There are challenges in policy implementation, including poor coordination between different departments, leading to inconsistencies in policy goals and measures [2] - Some consumers remain unaware of specific subsidy policies, such as those for new energy vehicles, resulting in missed opportunities for eligible consumers [2] - There is a mismatch between market supply and consumer demand, affecting market activity [2] Strategic Measures for Consumption Stimulation - Enhancing residents' income and providing targeted welfare policies, such as consumption vouchers for low-income groups, can create a virtuous cycle of consumption, employment, and income growth [3] - High-quality supply is necessary to stimulate consumption demand, with a focus on expanding product and service offerings and supporting new business models [3] - Optimizing the consumption environment through improved infrastructure and consumer rights protection can enhance consumer confidence [3] - Inclusive financial services should be developed to support consumption equity, particularly for rural areas and new urban residents [3]

Core Insights - The silver economy in China is transitioning from basic security to quality consumption, creating new opportunities for the travel and health care industry [1] - The scale of China's silver economy is expected to reach 30 trillion yuan by 2035, driven by policy support, market demand, and technological innovation [1] Group 1: Travel and Health Care Industry Development - The travel and health care industry is experiencing a "two-way rush" with the silver economy, boosting consumption across multiple sectors such as transportation, accommodation, and healthcare [2] - The travel and health care products account for nearly 20% of the silver economy, with an annual growth rate projected between 15% and 20% [3] - The integration of digital service platforms in Heilongjiang province has led to a year-round travel and health care model, effectively meeting the diverse needs of the elderly population [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - Elderly tourism is shifting from compensatory travel to primary consumption, with projects transitioning from resource-driven to service-driven models [3] - Future travel and health care projects should focus on specific elderly demographics, addressing chronic disease rehabilitation and cultural pursuits of highly educated retirees [3] - The silver economy supports three major development goals: improving livelihoods, economic growth, and social construction [4] Group 3: Policy and Infrastructure - Establishing smart elderly care big data platforms is essential for providing precise services and promoting urban-rural integration [4] - Enhancing the quality of life for the elderly is fundamental to stimulating consumption in the travel and health care sectors [4]

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu's Wenjiang District is actively developing a comprehensive silver economy industry chain, integrating culture, commerce, tourism, sports, and health to become a national core area for the silver economy, providing a model for high-quality development in the aging industry [1][2]. Policy Guidance - The State Council's issuance of opinions on developing the silver economy in January 2024 marks a significant policy-driven acceleration for the sector, with Sichuan Province and Chengdu quickly prioritizing it as a key industry chain [2]. - Wenjiang District aims to leverage the integration of culture, commerce, tourism, sports, and health as a vital engine for expanding domestic demand and improving livelihoods, striving to take the lead in the national silver economy sector [2]. Innovative Layout - The exploration of the silver economy in Wenjiang began in 2023, highlighted by the first national summit on high-quality development of the silver economy and the establishment of a specialized incubator [3]. - Wenjiang has created a full industry chain ecosystem covering research, production, sales, and services through a structure of "one core area + multiple specialized parks" [3]. - The silver economy industrial park focuses on the research and sales of age-friendly products, attracting leading companies in the sector [3]. E-commerce Empowerment - The silver e-commerce professional park addresses online sales challenges by providing comprehensive e-commerce solutions, including platform development, professional host training, and logistics integration [4]. - The park has launched themed live streaming rooms for senior health products across various regions, collaborating with over 200 brands and achieving an average daily live streaming traffic of over 3 million [4]. - The park aims to create a billion-level online transaction scale by the end of 2025, with over 50 silver e-commerce companies already established [4]. Industry Resource Gathering - The "2025 China (Chengdu) Silver Economy Industry Expo" will be held in August 2025, showcasing innovative products and services in the silver economy [5]. - The expo will feature various sections, including an elderly-friendly product exhibition and a smart elderly care experience area, expecting participation from over 200 domestic and international companies [5]. - The silver e-commerce professional committee will advocate for quality and integrity in the sector, ensuring that products and services genuinely benefit the elderly population [5].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant economic contributions of the elderly population in China, challenging stereotypes about their consumption habits and capabilities [1][7] - It emphasizes the shift from traditional views of elderly spending to a more dynamic engagement in various sectors, including technology and experiential consumption [3][5] Group 1: Economic Contributions - Elderly-related tax revenue increased by 28% year-on-year in the first half of the year, surpassing growth rates in other sectors like live-streaming e-commerce [1][6] - The number of elderly individuals engaging in education and new skills has surged, with a 120% increase in registrations for senior education programs [1][3] - Spending on smart devices by seniors rose by 47%, with significant interest in online stock trading and virtual tourism [3][4] Group 2: Changing Consumption Patterns - The elderly are moving towards experience-based consumption, with a 35% increase in the tourism market, while group tours have dropped to 20% of the market [3][4] - There is a notable rise in elderly participation in gaming, with older players showing higher engagement than younger demographics [3][4] - The demand for "age-friendly" products and services is growing, with a 210% increase in tax revenue from companies focused on adapting products for seniors [5][6] Group 3: Employment and Entrepreneurship - There has been a notable increase in tax filings from seniors, with 230,000 new taxpayers over 60, 30% of whom are re-entering the workforce [4][6] - Seniors are increasingly taking on entrepreneurial roles, with examples of successful businesses run by retirees outpacing younger counterparts [4][5] - The concept of "skills-based retirement" is gaining traction, with many seniors seeking meaningful work rather than traditional retirement roles [4][5] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Challenges - The article points out the rise of scams targeting the elderly, with a 180% increase in financial fraud cases related to retirement investments [6][7] - There is a significant digital divide, with only 12% of elderly individuals in rural areas engaging in online consumption compared to 68% in urban settings [6][7] - The need for businesses to adapt to the preferences and habits of older consumers is emphasized, moving beyond simplistic adaptations like larger text sizes [7][8]

Group 1 - The market sentiment is becoming more optimistic, with A-shares showing a five-week consecutive rise in weekly K-line performance, indicating a growing profit effect for investors [1] - Institutional funds have seen widespread net inflows, with public mutual funds exceeding estimated net redemptions in June, and private equity registrations surpassing 30 billion yuan, a 125% year-on-year increase [2] - Retail investors are also increasing their participation, with margin balances exceeding last year's peak, and active private equity positions remaining high at 82% [2] Group 2 - Historical data suggests that bull markets characterized by a divergence between fundamentals and liquidity typically last no more than four months, raising questions about the sustainability of the current market trend [3] - The current anti-involution narrative indicates potential investment opportunities in undervalued cyclical manufacturing sectors, particularly in construction materials, basic chemicals, steel, and transportation [4] - The upcoming World Artificial Intelligence Conference in 2025 is expected to catalyze growth in various sectors, with the STAR Market likely to experience a rebound due to supportive policies [5] Group 3 - Strategies for responding to the market surpassing 3600 points include balancing investments between Hong Kong and A-shares, with a focus on technology sectors and cyclical industries [6][7] - Investor sentiment is leaning towards a bullish outlook, with 55% of surveyed investors believing the market is in a bull phase, and a majority expecting the market to stabilize above 3600 points [9] - The technology sector remains a favored investment direction, with 46% of investors maintaining a focus on this area, while consumer sectors are also gaining attention [10]