房地产止跌回稳

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国家统计局:上半年全国商品房销售面积下降3.5%,需更大力度止跌企稳
Guan Cha Zhe Wang· 2025-07-15 09:07
房屋新开工面积3.0364亿平方米,下降20%。其中,住宅新开工面积2.2288亿平方米,下降19.6%。 新建商品房数据方面,今年上半年,销售面积4.5851亿平方米,同比下降3.5%;其中住宅销售面积下降 3.7%。新建商品房销售额44241亿元,下降5.5%;其中住宅销售额下降5.2%。 到今年6月末,全国商品房待售面积7.6948亿平方米,比5月末减少479万平方米。其中,住宅待售面积 减少443万平方米。 另外,房地产开发企业到位资金50202亿元,同比下降6.2%。其中,国内贷款8245亿元,增长0.6%;利 用外资17亿元,增长25.4%;自筹资金17544亿元,下降7.2%;定金及预收款14781亿元,下降7.5%;个 人按揭贷款6847亿元,下降11.4%。 (文/孙梅欣 编辑/张广凯) 7月15日,国家统计局公布的数据显示,上半年全国涉房地产的多项数据均呈现下滑。 今年1-6月,全国房地产开发投资46658亿元,同比下降11.2%;其中,住宅投资35770亿元,下降 10.4%。 在开工数据方面,房地产开发企业房屋施工面积63.3321亿平方米,同比下降9.1%。其中,住宅施工面 积44. ...
国家统计局:要以更大力度来推进房地产止跌回稳
中国基金报· 2025-07-15 06:59
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various measures implemented by local governments leading to a noticeable improvement in market conditions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The decline in commodity housing sales has narrowed, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1] - Although there have been fluctuations in housing prices across first, second, and third-tier cities, the overall decline in prices has also lessened [1] - Real estate market funding sources have improved, and the debt resolution efforts of real estate companies are progressing in an orderly manner [1] - Real estate inventory has decreased for four consecutive months, suggesting a tightening supply [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Despite the positive signs, it is important to note that the year-on-year sales area and prices are still declining, indicating that the bottoming out and transformation of the real estate sector is a process [1] - There is a call for greater efforts to promote the stabilization of the real estate market [1]
国家统计局:要以更大力度来推进房地产止跌回稳
财联社· 2025-07-15 05:25
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various measures implemented by local governments leading to a noticeable improvement in market conditions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The decline in commodity housing sales has narrowed, indicating a potential recovery in the market [1] - Although there have been fluctuations in housing prices across first, second, and third-tier cities, the overall decline in prices has also lessened [1] - Real estate market funding sources have improved, and the debt resolution efforts of real estate companies are progressing in an orderly manner [1] - Real estate inventory has decreased for four consecutive months, suggesting a tightening supply [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Despite the positive signs, it is important to note that the year-on-year sales area and prices are still declining, indicating that the bottoming out and transformation of the real estate sector is a process [1] - There is a call for greater efforts to promote the stabilization of the real estate market [1]
消费政策继续加力、更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳,国新办发布会详解下半年经济重点
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-07-15 04:29
Economic Overview - The GDP for the first half of the year reached 66,053.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - The first industry added value was 31.17 billion yuan (3.7% growth), the second industry 239.05 billion yuan (5.3% growth), and the third industry 390.31 billion yuan (5.5% growth) [1] Stability in Economic Performance - The economic performance in the first half of the year showed stability, with GDP growth of 5.4% in Q1 and 5.2% in Q2, marking a 0.3 percentage point increase compared to the same period last year [2] - The unemployment rate remained stable, fluctuating between 5.0% and 5.4% throughout the year [2] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slight decline in several months, with June seeing a return to positive growth at 0.1% [2] - International trade reached new highs, with foreign exchange reserves maintained above 3.2 trillion USD [2] Consumer Market Dynamics - Consumption contributed 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [3] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 24.55 trillion yuan, growing by 5% year-on-year, with Q2 growth accelerating to 5.4% [3] - Key trends in consumption included a rise in service sector consumption (5.3% growth), increased holiday spending, and a surge in demand for upgraded products such as sports goods (22.2% growth) and jewelry (11.3% growth) [3] - Green consumption is becoming a trend, with significant growth in electric vehicles and energy-efficient appliances [3] - The tourism sector is also seeing a boost, particularly with the expansion of visa-free travel [3] Real Estate Market Recovery - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in new housing sales [4] - New housing sales area decreased by 3.5%, a reduction of 15.5 percentage points compared to the previous year, while sales value fell by 5.5%, narrowing by 19.5 percentage points [4] - The decline in housing prices is also slowing, with some cities experiencing price increases [4] - Funding for real estate development has improved, with a 16.4 percentage point reduction in funding decline compared to the previous year [5] - The market is in a transitional phase, requiring further efforts to stabilize and recover [5]
国家统计局:房地产在筑底和转型阶段,需要下更大力度推动房地产市场止跌回稳
Cai Jing Wang· 2025-07-15 03:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the Chinese real estate market is showing signs of stabilization due to government policies aimed at promoting recovery, despite ongoing fluctuations in sales and prices [1][2] Group 2 - Market transaction volume has improved, with new residential property sales area declining by 3.5% year-on-year, a reduction of 15.5 percentage points compared to the same period last year [1] - The sales amount of residential properties decreased by 5.5%, with a narrowing of 19.5 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] - The trading volume of second-hand houses has increased compared to the same period last year [1] Group 3 - The overall decline in market prices has narrowed, with some cities experiencing price increases [1] - In June, the year-on-year decline in new residential property prices in first, second, and third-tier cities has narrowed by 0.3, 0.5, and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared to the previous month [1] Group 4 - The funding sources for the real estate market have improved, with a 16.4 percentage point reduction in the decline of funds available to real estate developers compared to the same period last year [2] - Domestic loans have increased by 0.6% year-on-year, contrasting with a 6% decline in the previous year [2] - The inventory reduction has been effective, with the total area of unsold residential properties decreasing by 4.79 million square meters from May to June, marking four consecutive months of decline [2]
国家统计局:上半年房地产总体朝着止跌回稳方向迈进
news flash· 2025-07-15 02:36
7月15日,国家统计局副局长盛来运在国新办新闻发布会上表示,今年以来,各地区各部门按照中央的 决策部署和要求,因城施策推动房地产市场企稳,从统计数据来看,相关措施成效明显。房地产总体朝 着止跌回稳的方向迈进。具体表现包括商品房销售降幅收窄;一二三线城市商品房价格虽然有所波动, 但总体降幅都有所收窄;房地产市场资金的来源也有所改善,房地产企业化债工作有序推进;房地产库 存连续四个月减少。盛来运强调,要看到目前房地产销售面积和价格同比还都在下降,房地产筑底转型 是一个过程,这是正常现象,要以更大力度来推进房地产止跌回稳。(证券时报) ...
地方政府债与城投行业监测周报2025年第21期:国常会强调更大力度推动房地产止跌回稳,黑龙江健全偿还隐债应急备付金制度-20250623
Zhong Cheng Xin Guo Ji· 2025-06-23 09:10
Report Overview - The report is the 21st issue of the weekly monitoring report on the local government debt and urban investment industry in 2025, covering the period from June 9 to June 15, 2025 [1][3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The State Council Executive Meeting emphasized greater efforts to stabilize and rebound the real estate market, and incremental support policies are expected to be introduced. The real estate market still faces pressure in stabilizing and rebounding, and it is necessary to introduce incremental policies from both supply and demand sides [5][6][7] - Heilongjiang Province improved the emergency reserve fund system for debt repayment to support "bridge financing" for cities and counties with implicit debt repayment gaps. Henan Province promoted state - owned capital investment promotion and accelerated the transformation of urban investment companies into industrial investment companies [9][10] Summary by Directory 1. News Review (1) Real Estate Policy Support - On June 13, the State Council Executive Meeting proposed to build a new real - estate development model, promote the construction of "good houses" in urban renewal, and conduct a survey of real - estate land and projects. Since April, the real - estate improvement has slowed down. The meeting's emphasis on "greater efforts" signals further policy support. Local governments have also introduced measures, such as Guangzhou considering canceling restrictions and Hunan arranging for the acquisition of commercial housing as affordable housing. It is recommended to introduce incremental policies from both supply and demand sides [6][7][8] (2) Debt Management and Investment Promotion - On June 17, Heilongjiang issued a plan to improve the fiscal budget and debt management system, including establishing an emergency reserve fund system for debt repayment. Henan proposed to promote state - owned capital investment promotion and transform urban investment companies into industrial investment companies [9][10] (3) Early Redemption of Urban Investment Bonds - 23 urban investment enterprises redeemed bond principal and interest in advance this week, involving 24 bonds with a total scale of 45.37 billion yuan, an increase of 23.22 billion yuan compared with the previous value. Most of the enterprises are from the western region, and the main credit rating is AA [13] (4) Cancellation of Urban Investment Bond Issuance - Two urban investment bonds, "25 WanTouJi MTN002" and "25 HuiLinInvestment MTN001A", were cancelled this week, with a planned issuance scale of 950 million yuan. As of June 15, 58 urban investment bonds have been postponed or cancelled this year, with a total scale of 3.5348 billion yuan [14] 2. Issuance of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds (1) Local Government Bonds - This week, the issuance scale and net financing of local government bonds decreased, the issuance interest rate decreased, and the spread widened. As of June 15, the issuance progress of new special bonds this year is less than 40%, and the local debt replacement progress has reached 84%. A total of 22 local bonds were issued this week, with a scale of 107.786 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.65%. The net financing decreased by 9.3513 billion yuan to - 4.3012 billion yuan. The weighted average issuance interest rate decreased by 1.83BP to 1.82%, and the weighted average spread widened by 2.87BP to 13.55BP [15][16] (2) Urban Investment Bonds - This week, the issuance scale and net financing of urban investment bonds increased, and the net financing turned positive. The issuance interest rate decreased, and the spread narrowed. A total of 176 urban investment bonds were issued, with a scale of 126.607 billion yuan, an increase of 63.89%. The net financing increased by 1.1982 billion yuan to 1.1948 billion yuan. The overall issuance interest rate was 2.23%, a decrease of 4.19BP, and the issuance spread was 72.94BP, a decrease of 1.67BP. Seven overseas urban investment bonds were issued, with a total scale of 2.764 billion yuan [19] 3. Trading of Local Government Bonds and Urban Investment Enterprise Bonds - The central bank conducted 858.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases this week, with 930.9 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 72.7 billion yuan. Short - term capital interest rates mostly declined. On June 6, 2025, Shanghai Brilliance upgraded the credit rating of Shanghai Pudong Land Holding (Group) Co., Ltd. from AA+ to AAA. No urban investment credit risk events occurred this week. The trading volume of local government bonds increased by 65.14% to 623.982 billion yuan, and the yield to maturity generally declined by an average of 3BP. The trading volume of urban investment bonds increased by 45.45% to 327.002 billion yuan, and the yield to maturity generally declined by an average of 3.95BP. The spreads of 1 - year, 3 - year, and 5 - year AA+ urban investment bonds narrowed. Under the broad - based criteria, 13 urban investment entities had 15 abnormal bond transactions [22][24][25] 4. Important Announcements of Urban Investment Enterprises - 43 urban investment enterprises issued announcements regarding changes in senior management, legal representatives, directors, supervisors, controlling shareholders, actual controllers, equity/asset transfers, and cumulative new borrowings this week [28]
房地产1-5月月报:投资销售两端走弱,国常会要求更大力度推动止跌回稳-20250616
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-06-16 09:44
行 业 及 产 业 房地产 本期投资提示: 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 2025 年 06 月 16 日 投资销售两端走弱,国常会要求更大力度推动 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 曹曼 A0230520120003 caoman@swsresearch.com 联系人 曹曼 (8621)23297818× caoman@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 证 券 研 究 报 告 止跌回稳 看好 ——房地产 1-5 月月报 ⚫ 投资端低位继续走弱,开工、竣工降幅收窄。从 2025 年 1-5 月累计来看,投资同比- 10.7%,较前值-0.4pct;新开工同比-22.8%,较前值+1.0pct;施工同比-9.2%,较前值 +0.5pct;竣工同比-17.3%,较前值-0.4pct。5 月单月来看,投资同比-12.0%,较前值- 0.7pct;开工同比-19.3%,较前值+2.9pct;竣工同比-19.5%,较前值+8.4pct。我们认 为,目前房地产行业 ...
厦门大学教授赵燕菁:房地产不涨都没戏,大家都会没钱!
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-15 03:42
Core Viewpoint - The primary goal for the real estate market this year is to stabilize and stop the decline, with various opinions on when this will happen [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - According to a report from Jiayuan International, there are signs of stabilization in the real estate market, with new home sales expected to reach between 8 trillion and 8.5 trillion yuan this year [3]. - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that confidence in stabilization is growing, but achieving it depends on three key indicators: transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment, requiring patience [3]. - Official statements indicate that the market is moving towards stabilization, but adjustments are still needed, particularly in areas facing significant inventory pressure [3]. Group 2: Economic Context and Consumer Confidence - The current lack of confidence and income expectations among consumers is a major barrier to recovery, with many people adopting a wait-and-see approach due to concerns about employment and income stability [4]. - The real estate sector directly employs 10.12 million people and indirectly supports an additional 70.51 million jobs across various related industries, highlighting its extensive impact on the economy [5]. Group 3: Financial Implications of Real Estate - Professor Zhao Yanjing emphasizes that the underlying issue in real estate is financial rather than merely housing-related, warning that a decline in real estate could destabilize the entire financial system [8]. - A 5% drop in housing prices could lead to a wealth evaporation of 19 trillion yuan, underscoring the significant scale of the real estate market and its importance for overall economic health [8]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - While there is a recognition of the importance of real estate, there is also caution against returning to past practices of rapid price increases, which could lead to negative consequences [11]. - A gradual adjustment and stabilization of housing prices is viewed as a healthier approach for the market [11].
中金研究 | 本周精选:宏观、策略、房地产
中金点睛· 2025-06-14 00:28
Real Estate Industry - The real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually, divided into three phases: housing transaction volume, housing prices, and real estate investment [3] - The core point for entering a positive cycle is the upward shift in housing price expectations due to changes in supply and demand structure, which should be a key signal for market observation [3] - Policy measures need to be more decisive to facilitate stabilization, focusing on adjusting supply and demand structures and mitigating risks from enterprises [3] - The probability of a "medium policy" scenario for the real estate fundamentals in 2025 is high, with sales performance potentially exceeding expectations due to the prolonged effects of the 926 policy [3] - A recovery in total housing sales to historically reasonable levels could lead to significant upward potential, with new housing transaction volumes likely to see greater recovery [3] Strategy - The A-share market has shown signs of improvement in early 2025, but external uncertainties are rising, impacting market dynamics [8] - The expected market rhythm for the second half of 2025 is "steady first, then rise," with upward potential dependent on comprehensive policy support [9] - Investment focus should be on certainty in uncertain environments, including opportunities from capacity cycles, high-growth sectors with low correlation to economic cycles, and dividend-paying sectors [9] Macroeconomy - The GDP growth rate has improved while prices remain weak, indicating a widening demand gap due to restrained policy measures [18] - The real estate sector's drag on the economy is expected to continue narrowing, contributing to a "quasi-balance" recovery [18] - The core CPI inflation is anticipated to improve slightly in the second half of the year, but overall inflation is expected to remain weak [18] New Consumption Trends - Despite overall consumption being insufficient, new consumption trends are emerging, characterized by a shift towards quality and rational spending [23] - The Z generation is becoming a key driver of the new consumption wave, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [23] - The potential for consumption in lower-tier cities is increasing as the drag from real estate weakens [23]