中港股市短期展望 恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口：聯儲局 10 月再次鷹派減息，2026 年 減息空間少於預期。官員意見分歧，減息路徑未明。中美元首 10 月會面 取得成果，美方取消 10%芬太尼關稅，暫停一年 24%對等關稅。兩國緊 張局勢暫時緩和，核心矛盾延後解決。內地第三季經濟進一步降溫，十五 五規劃提出擴大內需及促進科技自立自強，方向符合預期。但短期政策加 碼訊號欠奉，港股企業盈利難有明顯改善。加上近期美國科技股趨向波動， AI 產業鏈估值惹關注，而港股年內至今累積升幅較大，年底獲利誘因較 大。恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口。 每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 OPEC+確定2026年第一季暫停增產； 短期看好板塊 企業消息 ➢ 美團(3690)第三季經調整轉蝕160億人民幣遜預期，料末季續虧損； 百度集團(9888)傳開始大規模裁員； 中國燃氣(0384)中期盈利跌24%，收入跌2%； 宏觀焦點 中證監就推出商業不動產投資信託基金試點草案公開徵求意見，明 確商業不動產REITs監管職責； 標普降萬科企業(2202)評級 ...

强大国内市场是中国式现代化的战略依托。"十五五"规划建议提出，"坚持扩大内需这个战略基点""增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性"。 回望"十四五"，一个数字十分亮眼：86.4%！ 这是2021年至2024年内需对经济增长的平均贡献率，见证着中国"大市场"向"强市场"稳步转变。 世界经济版图上，中国稳居全球第二大消费市场、第一大网络零售市场、第二大进口市场。 11月24日，人们在重庆半山崖线鹅岭栈桥观光、拍照。新华社记者 陈诚 摄 投资积累的资本形成对经济增长的平均贡献率为30.2%。投资更加注重增进民生福祉，过去4年累计开工建设筹集各类保障性住房约780万 套，有效解决2000多万人的住房问题；社会民生领域投资保持较快增长，基本公共服务水平不断提升。 投资消费相互促进。 市场消费的扩大，通过产品生产、配套建设等渠道带动投资。比如，智能手机等消费需求旺盛，带动近4年互联网和相关服务业投资年均增长 21.9%、通信设备制造业投资年均增长11.2%。 11月26日，顾客在西安市内免税店有税商品区选购商品。新华社记者 邹竞一 摄 循着过去4年的发展轨迹看，内需始终是经济发展的主动力和稳定锚，向上生长、向好突破的力量在不断 ...

央视网消息（焦点访谈）：今天（11月30日），我们继续"向着新目标前进"系列。从柴米油盐到衣食住 行，从孩子的书包到老人的康养，每个人对美好生活的向往都是国家发展的方向。"十五五"规划建议 中，关于扩大内需、优化投资有哪些全新部署？这些部署背后又藏着怎样的发展新逻辑？今天，我们就 带着这些疑问，一起层层拆解，读懂政策里的民生温度与发展密码。我们先来看关于内需和投资，"十 五五"规划建议里的"新提法""新目标"是什么。 "十五五"规划建议指出，坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密 结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国内 大循环内生动力和可靠性。其中，"坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧密结合"是"十五五"规 划建议中关于内需和投资的一个全新提法和目标。 清华大学中国发展规划研究院常务副院长董煜："投资于物与投资于人，是这次"十五五"规划当中的一 大亮点，实现了发展目的与发展路径的更好结合，实现了投资目标和投资结构之间的有机协同。" 中国国际经济交流中心资深专家委员朱民："这个政策在未来十年、二十年以至于三十年，给整个中国 ...

研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五两市主要指数走势分化，半导体设备板块领涨，随着 AI 关注点转向应用，成 | | | | | 长类指数逐步成为焦点。两市成交额 1.58 万亿元，继续缩量。沪深 300 指数收 4526 | | | | | 点，涨 11，涨幅 0.25%；上证 50 指数收 2969 点，跌 2 点，涨幅-0.09%；中证 500 | | | | | 指数收 7031 点，涨 80 点，涨幅 1.15%；中证 1000 指数收 7334 点，涨 76 点，涨幅 | | | | | 1.06%。行业与主题 ETF 中涨幅居前的是科创半导体 ETF、稀有金属 ETF、卫星 ETF、 | | | | | 半导体设备 ETF、新能源车 ETF，跌幅居前的是中药 ETF、银行 ETF 基金、创新药 | | | | | ETF 华泰柏瑞。两市板块指数中涨 ...

强大国内市场，是中国式现代化的战略依托。 习近平总书记指出："当前和今后一个时期，要坚持做强国内大循环，加快形成强大国内经济循环体 系，以国内循环的稳定性对冲国际循环的不确定性。" "十五五"规划建议提出："坚持扩大内需这个战略基点，坚持惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧 密结合，以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国 内大循环内生动力和可靠性。" 面向未来，要深入贯彻落实习近平总书记重要指示精神和党中央决策部署，着力建设强大国内市场，在 扩大开放中拓展国际合作空间，以加快构建新发展格局应对新变局、塑造新优势、实现新突破，以经济 高质量发展全面推进中国式现代化。 加快构建新发展格局关系我国发展全局 回望，汲取力量。 2020年4月，在十九届中央财经委员会第七次会议上，习近平总书记首次提出构建新发展格局的战略构 想。 "十四五"以来的发展成就，彰显着这步先手棋的战略远见。 稳居全球第二大消费市场、第一大网络零售市场，2021年至2024年内需对经济增长的平均贡献率达到 86.4%；货物贸易规模稳居全球第一，货物进出口总额从2020年的32.2万亿元增加到2024年的 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and optimizing investment as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3][5] - The new proposal highlights the integration of "investment in material" and "investment in people," aiming to enhance the quality of life and stimulate consumption [3][11] - The article discusses the shift in investment focus from physical infrastructure to human capital, indicating a strategic decision to prioritize investments that directly benefit people's lives [5][15] Group 2 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests that investment in people includes funding for education, healthcare, and elderly care, which are crucial for improving living standards [5][19] - The article provides examples of successful integration of investments in both material and human resources, such as the Shenzhen Guangming Cloud Valley project, which has attracted high-tech enterprises and created job opportunities [11][13] - It highlights the need for a long-term vision in investments, focusing on talent development and innovation as key areas for future growth [25][27] Group 3 - The article notes that the total fixed asset investment in China is projected to reach 52 trillion yuan, emphasizing the scale of investment compared to global standards [9] - It discusses the necessity of increasing residents' income to boost consumption, with specific goals set in the "14th Five-Year Plan" to align income growth with economic growth [19][21] - The article mentions that the government aims to direct more resources towards social welfare, with over 70% of fiscal spending in various regions allocated to the livelihood sector [21][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the economic main - line adheres to high - quality development, emphasizing new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, and focusing on expanding domestic demand. The policy framework aims at structural adjustment, with coordinated fiscal and monetary policies. An active fiscal policy will continue, with the central bank expected to cut interest rates by 10 - 20BP and reduce the reserve requirement ratio once. Investment and consumption are expected to recover moderately, and inflation recovery is the biggest uncertainty in the bond market. The after - tax interest rate of 10 - year treasury bonds will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" Adheres to High - Quality Development, Balancing Development and Security - **External Environment and Goal Orientation**: The "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" period faces a more uncertain external environment, with strategic opportunities coexisting with risks and challenges. The goal is to achieve a moderately developed level of per capita GDP by 2035, and the GDP of the "Fifteenth Five - Year Plan" and "Sixteenth Five - Year Plan" periods needs to grow at an average annual rate of 4.17%. The development main - line is centered around economic construction, with high - quality development as the theme and reform and innovation as the driving force [8][21]. - **Supply - and - Demand - Side Joint Efforts**: The supply side focuses on new - quality productivity and modern industrial layout, while the demand side aims to boost consumption and expand effective investment. In the short term, the economic fundamentals need to be consolidated, but the 2025 target is not difficult to achieve [23][24][27]. 3.2 Fiscal Policy Boosts Domestic Demand, and Monetary Policy Continues the New Model - **Macro Policy Framework**: China has formed a complete macro - policy framework aiming at structural transformation, coordinating multiple policies to promote sustainable economic growth and adjust the economic structure [32]. - **Fiscal Policy**: The active fiscal policy will continue, with a focus on boosting consumption and expanding effective investment. The estimated deficit rates of 4% and 4.5% may result in deficit scales of 6 trillion and 6.7 trillion yuan respectively. The government will also continue to promote debt resolution [34][35][40]. - **Monetary Policy**: The central bank will use interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts cautiously, with an expected interest rate cut of 10 - 20BP and a single reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026. It will adopt a new model of combining cautious use of rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts with active use of structural tools to maintain liquidity and support the real economy [43][46]. 3.3 Investment Focuses More on Efficiency, and Inflation May Continuously Improve - **Investment**: In 2026, investment will increase, with a focus on efficiency and concentration in key projects, regions, and industries. Real estate is expected to remain at a low level, infrastructure investment will be targeted, and manufacturing investment will focus on new - quality productivity [54][57][63]. - **Consumption**: Consumption is expected to continue to improve, with consumer confidence rising and the special treasury bond expenditure for trade - in programs likely to be no less than 300 billion yuan in 2026 [66]. - **Inflation**: The decline in PPI is expected to continue to narrow, and CPI may turn positive, growing by about 0.4% in 2026 [71]. 3.4 Liquidity and Interest Rate Outlook - **Funding**: The central bank will maintain stable and low - volatility funding prices, and the 10 - year treasury bond after - tax interest rate will fluctuate between 1.7% - 1.9%, with a mid - bond valuation of 1.75 - 1.95%, and the rhythm may be lower in the first half and higher in the second half [11][75][103]. - **External Factors**: The Fed's entry into the interest rate cut cycle may lead to an increase in corporate foreign exchange settlement willingness, which may affect liquidity. Deposit transfer may continue, increasing the bank's liability pressure [81][87]. - **Bond Market Outlook**: In 2026, the 10 - year treasury bond will fluctuate around the policy rate, and the long - term interest rate is expected to remain volatile at a low level. The bond market will have low volatility, and the interest rate will maintain a low - level oscillation [97][103].

第三，扩大居民消费要优化供给结构与收入分配结构的有效对接。不同收入分配格局有不同的消费结 构，需要提供满足不同收入群体的商品和服务。 第四，扩大居民消费要进一步优化消费环境。如改善出行停车焦虑可以释放汽车消费潜能，改善文化旅 游场景推动文旅消费，严格落实工作时间和休假制度等。(完) （文章来源：中国新闻网） 他指出，扩大消费需要长短期政策密切配合与有效搭配，并据此提出四项建议： 第一，提高居民消费率要与降低居民储蓄率统筹施策。降低利率可能能够促进居民消费，但是同时也可 能会影响居民储蓄，这需要统筹考虑，不能"硬碰硬"。 第二，扩大居民消费要高度重视提高居民收入占比。首先要提高居民初次分配收入占比，尤其是个体经 济等的经营性收入占比。同时通过税收和社会保障工具加大收入再分配力度。 中新社北京11月29日电 (记者王梦瑶)中国经济体制改革研究会副会长李晓超29日在北京表示，扩大消费 是坚持扩大内需战略基点的主要抓手，需要长短期政策密切配合与有效搭配。 当天，在中国经济时报社主办的"经济前瞻论坛2025年会"上，李晓超指出，面对经济增长动力由供给向 需求决定的转型，要促进经济保持持续稳定增长，必须从战略上持续稳定扩 ...

Core Viewpoint - China is accelerating its transformation and upgrading process, focusing on high-quality development and implementing a strategy to expand domestic demand, as emphasized in the 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session and the government's work report [1][2]. Group 1: Investment in People - The concept of "investment in people" differs fundamentally from Western human capital theories, emphasizing a people-centered development approach that aims for comprehensive human development and social equity [2]. - The shift towards "investment in people" is essential for stimulating economic circulation, addressing the underlying issues of insufficient effective demand due to concerns over employment, housing, education, healthcare, and social security [2][3]. Group 2: Consumption and Public Services - China's consumption structure is transitioning from goods-focused to a balance of goods and services, indicating significant potential for domestic demand growth [3]. - Key areas for investment include childcare support and elderly care services, which can alleviate family financial burdens and stimulate related consumption, thus linking social welfare with consumption promotion [3][4]. - Enhancing public services and equalizing access can unlock consumption potential in urban and rural areas, particularly through increased investment in housing, education, and healthcare for migrant populations [3]. Group 3: Policy Coordination - A systematic approach is required to promote consumption and expand domestic demand, necessitating coordinated policies that prioritize public welfare and optimize fiscal spending [4]. - Financial support should be directed towards consumption infrastructure and services that directly benefit residents, ensuring a positive interaction between "investment in people" and "investment in things" [4]. - A sustainable and systematic view is essential to ensure that investments yield tangible benefits for people's livelihoods and stimulate consumption, creating a virtuous cycle of economic growth and improved public welfare [4].

Group 1 - The "Economic Outlook Forum 2025" held in Beijing focuses on promoting high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1] - Zhang Shunxi from the State Council Development Research Center emphasizes the importance of recognizing development trends and enhancing confidence in achieving goals [1] - Zhang Junkuo from the China Development Research Foundation advocates for expanding domestic demand and effective investment to build a strong domestic market [1] Group 2 - In the field of elderly care, Wu Yushao highlights six transformations in services during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, including a shift from basic to essential care and from supply to demand [2] - Li Xiaocao suggests that increasing residents' consumption rates should be coordinated with lowering savings rates, focusing on optimizing supply and income distribution structures [2] - Li Erchao stresses the importance of prioritizing "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" to enhance agricultural productivity and modernize rural areas [2] Group 3 - Experts believe that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China will respond to external uncertainties by steadily increasing domestic demand and enhancing innovation and reform [3]