Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has broken the 7.0 mark against the USD, reaching a high of 6.9973, marking a significant moment in global finance and indicating a shift in the global currency landscape [2] Group 1: RMB Strength and Economic Context - The RMB's rise to the "6 era" reflects a robust recovery of the Chinese economy after challenges, showcasing its resilience [2] - In 2025, the USD index experienced a nearly 8% decline, the largest annual drop in nine years, driven by structural economic issues in the U.S. [3] - The U.S. Federal Reserve's three interest rate cuts in 2025 diminished the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets [3] Group 2: Global Currency Dynamics - Global central banks are reducing their USD reserves due to concerns over the U.S. debt expansion, leading to a diversification of currency reserves [4] - The perception of the USD as a safe haven is weakening, prompting capital to seek new opportunities, with China emerging as a preferred destination [4] Group 3: Trade Surplus and Economic Foundations - China's trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, a historic achievement indicating strong net earnings from global markets [6] - The composition of the trade surplus has shifted from low-value goods to high-value products like automobiles and advanced machinery, enhancing the credibility of the RMB [8] Group 4: Policy and Market Stability - The People's Bank of China has maintained a stable RMB without resorting to competitive devaluation, demonstrating strategic policy strength [9] - The relative stability of the China-U.S. interest rate differential has kept RMB assets attractive, evidenced by significant foreign capital inflows into Chinese government bonds [9] Group 5: Long-term Outlook for RMB - The RMB's return to the "6 era" suggests a likely long-term appreciation trend, supported by ongoing productivity improvements in China [11] - The current low allocation of global capital to Chinese assets compared to its economic size indicates potential for future inflows [11] Group 6: Opportunities and Challenges - RMB appreciation presents opportunities to lower import costs and combat inflation, while also posing short-term challenges for export-oriented businesses [13] - The recent RMB strength may signify a pivotal moment for the currency's transition from a regional to a global reserve currency [13]

我国对欧盟加税后，法国总统马克龙为什么24小时内再次变脸，向全球表明欧盟必须对华开放？马克龙想要中国的先进技术，但欧洲是否做好了相应的准 备？ 12月16日，我国商务部发布一则公告，决定对原产于欧盟的进口猪肉及猪副产品征收反倾销税。 我国商务部的这一举措，并不是临时起意。早在2025年9月，我国商务部就已经发布公告，初步认定欧盟相关产品存在倾销并对中国国内产业造成实质损 害。 人们知道，我国是全球最大的猪肉消费国和生产国，也是欧盟猪肉出口的重要市场。根据公开数据，欧盟长期以来是中国进口猪肉的主要来源地之一。 此次反倾销税的落地，直接影响欧盟相关农产品的对华出口竞争力，无疑向欧洲传递了一个清晰的市场信号：中国市场是开放合作的，但必须在公平贸易的 规则下进行。 这一措施的背景，是近年来欧盟部分政客和产业界不断渲染所谓的"中欧贸易失衡"论调。马克龙在文章中援引数据，称过去十年间中国对欧盟的贸易顺 差"几乎翻倍"，达到3000亿欧元，并称这是"不可持续的"。 然而，客观数据表明，自2022年以来，欧盟对华贸易逆差总体已呈下降趋势，2023年降幅达27%。 马克龙希望得到中国的技术，这无可厚非。但一个显而易见的事实是， ...

德国前总理默克尔在卸任前几个月说过，欧洲要是和中国彻底断开经济联系，那绝对是走歪路，会把自 己坑进去。那是2021年11月的事，她在接受媒体访问时点明了这点，当时中欧贸易还没闹出大矛盾。结 果几年过去，欧盟那边还真就一步步往她担心的方向走了。欧盟委员会在2023年6月20日放出一份经济 安全文件，直指要减少对中国的依赖，涉及原材料和技术供应链。成员国代表在那时候开会通过了这套 方案，接下来就开始在关键领域推动本地生产。 欧盟的动作没停过。2024年10月，他们正式通过对中国电动汽车加征关税的决定，覆盖多家中国企业。 欧盟议会那边投票通过后，港口和边境的检查就加强了，针对进口车辆的审查变得更严。德国电信运营 商从2024年7月起动手，从5G网络里移除中国设备，这一步步落实下来，影响了通讯行业的供应链。转 到2025年，欧盟又对几家中国企业动手。12月，他们突击检查了Temu在都柏林的办公室，重点查补贴 问题。没几天，又对同方威视在荷兰的分支启动调查，查财务和交易记录。成员国财长们在12月12日开 会，签了协议，从2026年7月起对小包裹征收关税，很多这类包裹是从中国电商发出的。 法国总统马克龙在2025年12月 ...

中港股市短期展望 恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口：聯儲局 10 月再次鷹派減息，2026 年 減息空間少於預期。官員意見分歧，減息路徑未明。中美元首 10 月會面 取得成果，美方取消 10%芬太尼關稅，暫停一年 24%對等關稅。兩國緊 張局勢暫時緩和，核心矛盾延後解決。內地第三季經濟進一步降溫，十五 五規劃提出擴大內需及促進科技自立自強，方向符合預期。但短期政策加 碼訊號欠奉，港股企業盈利難有明顯改善。加上近期美國科技股趨向波動， AI 產業鏈估值惹關注，而港股年內至今累積升幅較大，年底獲利誘因較 大。恒指短期支持參考 25,000 點關口。 每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 12 月 1 日星期一 2012-01- 17 市場回顧 OPEC+確定2026年第一季暫停增產； 短期看好板塊 企業消息 ➢ 美團(3690)第三季經調整轉蝕160億人民幣遜預期，料末季續虧損； 百度集團(9888)傳開始大規模裁員； 中國燃氣(0384)中期盈利跌24%，收入跌2%； 宏觀焦點 中證監就推出商業不動產投資信託基金試點草案公開徵求意見，明 確商業不動產REITs監管職責； 標普降萬科企業(2202)評級 ...

Core Points - Huawei and ZTE have signed 5G agreements in Vietnam, indicating a warming relationship between Vietnam and China amid deteriorating ties with the U.S. due to tariffs [1][2] - Vietnam has historically been cautious about using Chinese technology in sensitive infrastructure, but recent developments suggest a shift in this stance [1][4] - Contracts awarded to Huawei and ZTE include a $23 million deal for 5G equipment and additional contracts exceeding $20 million for 5G antennas [1][5] Group 1: Contracts and Agreements - Huawei and ZTE have secured multiple contracts for supplying 5G equipment in Vietnam, with Huawei winning a $23 million contract in April and ZTE winning contracts totaling over $20 million recently [1][5] - Despite concerns from Western officials, the contracts reflect Vietnam's changing approach towards Chinese technology amid geopolitical tensions [1][2] Group 2: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. has pressured Vietnam to avoid Chinese contractors in its digital infrastructure projects, including undersea cables, citing national security risks [4][6] - Recent meetings among Western officials in Vietnam have raised concerns about the implications of using Chinese technology on trust in Vietnam's networks and access to advanced U.S. technology [6][7] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - Huawei and ZTE face restrictions in the U.S. and some European countries due to perceived national security risks, yet they continue to expand their presence in Vietnam [5][9] - The European Commission is exploring measures to compel member states to exclude high-risk suppliers like Huawei and ZTE from telecom networks, which could lead to political disputes [7][9]

Core Points - Huawei and ZTE have secured multiple 5G equipment supply contracts in Vietnam this year, indicating a strengthening relationship between China and Vietnam [1] - The U.S. has imposed tariffs on Vietnamese goods, leading to a cooling of relations, while Vietnam has increasingly adopted technology from Chinese companies [1] - Although Ericsson and Nokia have obtained contracts for Vietnam's 5G core infrastructure, Chinese companies are winning smaller projects in public procurement [1] - A consortium including Huawei won a $23 million 5G equipment contract shortly after the U.S. announced tariffs on Vietnamese goods [1] - ZTE has also secured at least two contracts, with one recently finalized, totaling over $20 million for 5G antenna orders [1] - The timing of these contracts has raised concerns among Western officials regarding their potential impact on trust in Vietnam's networks and access to U.S. advanced technology [2] Company and Industry Summary - Chinese companies, particularly Huawei and ZTE, are expanding their presence in Vietnam's telecommunications sector amid geopolitical tensions [1][2] - The contracts won by Chinese firms have become a topic of discussion among Western officials, highlighting concerns over technology trust and influence in Vietnam [2] - Major Western competitors like Ericsson and Nokia are still active in the market, but the growing success of Chinese firms indicates a shift in Vietnam's technology partnerships [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of U.S.-China relations, highlighting the combination of grassroots motivation among the Chinese populace and the strategic stability of the Chinese leadership as key factors that challenge the traditional global order [1][14]. Group 1: Chinese Societal Dynamics - The rise of China is not solely a result of government policies but is significantly driven by the strong upward motivation of the Chinese people, who are educated to believe that knowledge can change their fate [3][16]. - The competitive spirit fostered through rigorous education, such as the national college entrance examination, has produced a large pool of highly skilled technical talent capable of innovation in various high-tech sectors [3][5]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - China is transitioning from being a manufacturing hub to an innovation powerhouse, particularly in high-tech fields like renewable energy, electric vehicles, and semiconductors, which threatens the U.S.'s historical dominance in technology [5][10]. - The speed at which China is catching up technologically is a significant concern for the U.S., as it risks losing its monopolistic advantages in the global value chain [6][10]. Group 3: Strategic Stability of Chinese Leadership - The Chinese leadership's long-term strategic planning, exemplified by clear five-year plans, contrasts sharply with the political instability and uncertainty in the U.S. [8][12]. - China's ability to maintain a consistent policy direction over decades has resulted in a stable governance model that the U.S. finds difficult to replicate [12][16]. Group 4: U.S. Response and Challenges - The U.S. has attempted to maintain its global position through trade wars and technological restrictions, but these measures have led to domestic inflation and challenges in reviving its manufacturing sector [10][12]. - The increasing political division within the U.S. complicates its ability to respond effectively to the rising influence of China, raising questions about whether the U.S. has missed its strategic opportunity [12][16].

Group 1 - The European Commission is pushing for legislation to mandate EU member states to exclude Huawei and ZTE equipment from mobile communication networks, reflecting a trend of increasing geopolitical and ideological concerns in EU-China economic relations [1][2] - Since 2019, the EU has been emphasizing "5G security issues," with the European Commission developing policy recommendations and the U.S. government exerting pressure on EU countries regarding security concerns [1][2] - The EU's focus has shifted from "development" to "security" in the context of 5G and infrastructure, with the European Commission regularly promoting the implementation of 5G security measures [1][2] Group 2 - The European Commission's 5G policies remain at the recommendation level, and their implementation depends on member states' legislative actions, which may be influenced by the Commission's efforts to create a sense of security threat [2] - The Commission's rhetoric regarding "high-risk" companies like Huawei and ZTE is seen as politically motivated and detrimental to EU-China technological and economic cooperation, potentially empowering anti-China sentiments within member states [2][4] - The EU's approach to security and trade relations with China may undermine its own competitiveness, as it faces challenges such as market fragmentation and outdated infrastructure in the digital economy [3][4] Group 3 - Chinese telecommunications companies like Huawei and ZTE offer world-leading efficiency and performance in equipment and technology, which surpasses the traditional competition based on price and labor costs [3] - The EU's insistence on excluding Huawei and ZTE could lead to significant increases in telecom system costs and service disruptions, hindering the optimization of critical infrastructure [4] - The EU needs to reconsider its politicization of economic issues and demonstrate a pragmatic attitude in managing bilateral trade relations with China to enhance its competitiveness [4]

Core Viewpoint - Nokia has decided to delist its shares from the regulated market of Euronext Paris, citing a comprehensive assessment of trading volume, costs, and administrative requirements associated with the listing [1] Group 1: Delisting Decision - The delisting is expected to save Nokia significant regulatory fees and administrative burdens, estimated to be in the millions of euros [1] - Nokia's shares will continue to be listed on the Helsinki Nasdaq and its American Depositary Receipts (ADR) will remain on the New York Stock Exchange [1] - The decision has raised concerns among investors regarding Nokia's operational status, leading to a 4.76% drop in its U.S. stock [1] Group 2: Business Strategy and Market Position - The delisting coincides with a critical point in Nokia's business strategy transformation, shifting focus from mobile phones to network infrastructure, mobile networks (5G), cloud services, and technology licensing [2] - Nokia holds a 13% share of the global telecom equipment market, ranking second behind Huawei, which has a 31% share [4] - The company is facing challenges in the North American telecom market, with AT&T terminating a significant 5G contract with Nokia in favor of Ericsson [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - Nokia's Q3 financial report for the period ending September 2025 shows adjusted net sales of €4.833 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase, but operating profit declined by 10% to €435 million [5] - The company plans to increase investments in artificial intelligence, with NVIDIA announcing a $1 billion acquisition of a 2.9% stake in Nokia [5] - The partnership with NVIDIA aims to enhance Nokia's 5G and 6G software to run on NVIDIA chips, accelerating the development of AI-native mobile networks [5]

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around Europe's sudden shift in policy towards Chinese companies, particularly in the semiconductor and telecommunications sectors, following a meeting between US and Chinese leaders [1][17][19] - The Netherlands' decision to take control of ASML and halt its wafer supply to China is seen as a politically motivated move rather than a purely commercial one, raising questions about the legitimacy of the legal basis for such actions [4][8][10] - Germany's plan to replace all Chinese 5G equipment within two years is a significant escalation, reflecting a departure from its historically pragmatic approach to economic decisions [10][12][15] Group 2 - The Netherlands' actions are perceived as reckless and lacking substantial evidence of security risks, as ASML primarily serves non-sensitive industries like automotive and home appliances [6][8] - Germany's abrupt decision to replace Chinese equipment is driven by external pressures, despite the potential high costs and disruptions to the telecommunications infrastructure [12][14][15] - The shift in European policy is linked to growing concerns over China's rising influence in high-tech sectors and the potential loss of control over critical supply chains [19][21] Group 3 - In response to Europe's actions, China emphasizes its commitment to independent technological development and strengthening its semiconductor capabilities [21][22][24] - China's strategy includes fostering domestic "little giant" companies and expanding international cooperation, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road [22][24] - The ongoing tension presents Europe with a strategic choice between pursuing open cooperation or adopting a more isolationist stance under the guise of security [25][27][29]