1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, but in the short - term (November), there is no strong driving force, and the market is in an adjustment phase [3]. - **Copper**: The spot market's purchasing sentiment is high, and the average price of 1 electrolytic copper is 86,535 yuan/ton with an expanding premium. However, when the price breaks through 86,000 yuan/ton, downstream counter - offer willingness increases. Whether the copper price can break through the trading - intensive area remains to be seen [12]. - **Aluminum**: Funds are the core factor affecting aluminum prices. There is a contradiction between funds and the industry. For alumina, it is on an over - supply path despite some price increases due to environmental restrictions [33]. - **Zinc**: In November, the TC dropped significantly due to intense competition for mines and limited domestic mine increments. There is a possibility of inventory reduction, and low inventory supports the price. There is some upward driving force in November, and export and macro factors need to be monitored [58]. - **Nickel**: Weak demand in the off - season suppresses the upward space. The Philippines' nickel mine production and shipment are affected by the rainy season and typhoons, and the price may remain strong in the short - term. Nickel iron prices are falling, and stainless - steel demand needs attention [74]. - **Tin**: Supply is weaker than demand due to limited resumption in Wabang and reduced concentrate imports. The Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock, with a predicted support at around 276,000 yuan. There is a risk of price decline due to potential inventory accumulation [89]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply increment is stable, and demand is strong in November. The market sentiment is positive. Technically, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend [104]. - **Silicon**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, and both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Outlook**: Medium - to long - term upward trend, short - term adjustment in November [3]. - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold and silver prices, and their ratios are presented in the report [4]. - **Spread Data**: SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot spreads are shown [5][7]. - **Inventory Data**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories are provided [11]. Copper - **Spot Market**: High purchasing sentiment, average 1 electrolytic copper price at 86,535 yuan/ton, and expanding premium [12]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are given. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper's main contract is 86,630 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.17% [13]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and premiums are presented [19][21]. - **Import and Processing**: Copper import profit is - 585.37 yuan/ton, and copper concentrate TC is - 42 dollars/ton [24]. - **Scrap - to - Refined Spread**: The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 3,393.51 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13.58% [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: Shanghai copper's total warehouse receipts are 42,964 tons, a decrease of 1.88% [29]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Funds drive the price, but there is a contradiction with the industry. Domestic supply is stable, and demand is weak [33]. - **Alumina**: Some price increases due to environmental restrictions, but overall in an over - supply situation [33]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London aluminum futures, alumina futures, and aluminum alloy futures are provided [35]. - **Spread Data**: Various spreads between different contracts of aluminum and alumina are presented [37][39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic and international aluminum spot prices and premiums are given [43]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai and London aluminum warehouse receipts and inventories, as well as alumina warehouse receipts, are reported [52]. Zinc - **Market Outlook**: TC dropped in November, and there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory supports the price, and there is upward driving force [58]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London zinc futures are provided [59]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of domestic and international zinc spot prices and premiums are presented [67]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai and London zinc warehouse receipts and inventories are reported [71]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Weak demand in the off - season, affected by macro factors. Nickel mine prices may be strong, and nickel iron and stainless - steel demand need attention [74]. - **Price and Volume Data**: The latest prices, trading volumes, open interests, and warehouse receipt numbers of Shanghai and London nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are given [75]. Tin - **Market Outlook**: Supply is weaker than demand, and the price will maintain a high - level shock. There is a risk of price decline due to potential inventory accumulation [89]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [90]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various tin spot products are presented [95]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin's warehouse receipts and London tin's inventory are reported [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Outlook**: Supply is stable, demand is strong, and it is in a shock - upward trend [104]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are given [105]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of various lithium - related spot products, as well as their price differences, are presented [110]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest numbers, daily and weekly changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts and various social inventories are reported [114]. Silicon - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon and the polysilicon industry chain is weak, with wide - range fluctuations expected [116]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116]. - **Industry Chain Price**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other products in the silicon industry chain are presented [123][124][125]. - **Production and Inventory**: The weekly production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as the polysilicon inventory, are reported [130][134][143].

Economic Trends - Industrial production is expected to slow down, with recent supply-side indicators showing signs of weakening, particularly in capacity utilization rates which have declined across various sectors[1] - October's industrial added value growth rate is likely to decelerate, correlating with a drop in exports and port cargo throughput[1] Price Dynamics - October inflation data exceeded expectations, with CPI turning positive year-on-year and PPI showing its first positive growth of the year, indicating a stabilization in prices[1] - However, CPI is expected to remain low due to a significant year-on-year decline in pork prices, which have dropped over 25%[1] Investment and Consumption - Investment demand remains weak, with real estate sales data returning to levels seen before last year's peak, suggesting further slowdown in real estate investment growth[1] - Despite weak investment, consumer spending shows potential for improvement, driven by seasonal increases in service and food prices, alongside e-commerce promotions and consumption subsidies[1] Risks and Challenges - Risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacts[1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, the short - term is in an adjustment phase, and there is expected to be no strong driving force in November [3]. - For copper, when the copper price drops to around 85,000 yuan/ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases, and the price has strong support at this level. However, whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient [17]. - For aluminum, the recent price increase is driven by speculative funds due to potential future supply - demand mismatches, but it contradicts the current fundamentals. The price of alumina may be weak in the short - term due to oversupply [37]. - For zinc, the TC in November has dropped significantly due to intense competition for ore at the smelting end. There is a possibility of inventory reduction in November, and the low inventory provides support for the price [60]. - For the nickel industry chain, the price of nickel ore may be supported during the rainy season in the Philippines. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but there is no upward driving force for prices. Nickel iron prices have been continuously lowered, and stainless steel spot sales are weak [76]. - For tin, the supply is weaker than demand, and the raw material problem at the supply end is difficult to solve in the short - term, so the Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock [91]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply increment is stable, the demand is strong in November, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend in the short - term [105]. - For the silicon industry chain, there is an expectation of production reduction at the industrial silicon supply end, and the demand has not improved. The fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak [116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold, and the gold - silver ratio [4]. - **Factor Analysis**: Analyzes the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, and the relationship between gold and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds [8][15]. - **Inventory Situation**: Shows the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper are provided [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotong, etc., as well as the spot premium and discount data are presented [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference are given [28][32]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory are provided [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures, LME aluminum, and alumina futures are presented [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of East China aluminum, Foshan aluminum, etc., as well as the basis data are provided [46]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts are given [54]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [61]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SMM 0 zinc and SMM 1 zinc, as well as the premium and discount data are presented [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory are given [73]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [77]. - **Spot Data**: The average price of nickel spot is presented [82]. - **Downstream Situation**: The price and inventory of nickel ore, the profit rate of downstream products, and the price of nickel pig iron are analyzed [83][85][89]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium and discount, etc., are presented [96]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory are given [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided [106]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium - related products are presented [110]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and lithium carbonate social inventory are given [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116][117]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented [122][123][124]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are given [129][141][144].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, in the short - term, the price has entered an adjustment phase. There is expected to be no strong driving force in November. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips, and those with existing long positions should hold their bottom positions cautiously. London gold has resistance at 4050 - 4100, support at 3900, and strong support in the 3800 - 3850 area; silver has resistance at 49.5 - 50, support at 47.5, and strong support at 45.5 [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals continued to fluctuate. The US dollar index, 10 - year US Treasury yields, US stocks, Bitcoin, and crude oil all declined. The number of US Challenger corporate layoffs in October reached a 20 - year high. Concerns about AI investment returns and hawkish remarks from Fed officials increased market panic about a potential economic recession. The US government shutdown also added to market unease. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3984.8 per ounce, down 0.2%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $47.845 per ounce, down 0.37%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 917.8 yuan per gram, up 0.79%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11427 yuan per kilogram, up 1.99%. The US announced a new list of critical minerals, including copper, silver, uranium, and potash [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly increased. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 29.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 70.6%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 17.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 54.2%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 28.2%. For March 19, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 10.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.1%, the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 38.9%, and the probability of a 75 - basis - point cut is 11.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 1.72 tons to 1040.35 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 36.68 tons to 15114.03 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16.2 tons to 640 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons as of the week ending October 31 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday evening and whether the US government shutdown will delay the data release. Regarding events, at 16:00 on Friday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at the ECB money market conference [4]. 4. Price, Inventory, and Market Data 4.1 Precious Metals Futures and Spot Prices | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Main Continuous | Yuan/gram | 917.8 | 5.54 | 0.61% | | SGX Gold TD | Yuan/gram | 917.51 | 7.98 | 0.88% | | CME Gold Main | US dollars/ounce | 3984.8 | - 5.6 | - 0.14% | | SHFE Silver Main Continuous | Yuan/kilogram | 11427 | 151 | 1.34% | | SGX Silver TD | Yuan/kilogram | 11421 | 181 | 1.61% | | CME Silver Main | US dollars/ounce | 47.845 | - 0.015 | - 0.03% | | SHFE - TD Gold | Yuan/gram | 0.29 | - 2.44 | - 89.38% | | SHFE - TD Silver | Yuan/kilogram | 6 | - 30 | - 1000% | | CME Gold - Silver Ratio | / | 83.2856 | - 0.0909 | - 0.11% | [7] 4.2 Inventory and Position Data | Product | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold Inventory | Kilogram | 87816 | 0 | 0% | | CME Gold Inventory | Ton | 1177.1807 | - 1.0722 | - 0.09% | | SHFE Gold Position | Lot | 137883 | - 3545 | - 2.51% | | SPDR Gold Position | Ton | 1040.35 | 1.72 | 0.17% | | SHFE Silver Inventory | Ton | 639.94 | - 16.23 | - 2.47% | | CME Silver Inventory | Ton | 14975.342 | 0.3139 | 0% | | SGX Silver Inventory | Ton | 830.31 | - 74.925 | - 8.28% | | SHFE Silver Position | Lot | 245863 | 1589 | 0.65% | | SLV Silver Position | Ton | 15114.027615 | - 36.682 | - 0.24% | [15][17] 4.3 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Market Overview | Product | Unit | Latest Value | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Dollar Index | 1973.3 = 199 | 99.7056 | - 0.4536 | - 0.45% | | US Dollar to Chinese Yuan | / | 7.1226 | - 0.0078 | - 0.11% | | Dow Jones Industrial Average | Point | 46912.3 | - 398.7 | - 0.84% | | WTI Crude Oil Spot | US dollars/barrel | 59.43 | - 0.17 | - 0.29% | | LmeS Copper 03 | US dollars/ton | 10687 | - 46 | - 0.43% | | 10 - Year US Treasury Yield | % | 4.11 | - 0.06 | - 1.44% | | 10 - Year US Real Interest Rate | % | 1.83 | - 0.04 | - 2.14% | | 10 - 2 Year US Treasury Yield Spread | % | 0.54 | 0 | 0% | [22]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged, breaking the $50 per ounce mark, marking a 74% increase year-to-date, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and private investment inflows [1][3] Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - Silver prices reached a historic high of over $50 per ounce on October 9, 2023, and have stabilized above this level [1] - Investment demand is identified as the primary driver for the recent increase in silver prices, with a noted correlation where every additional 1,000 tons purchased typically raises the price by approximately 1.6% [3] Group 2: Risks and Volatility - Goldman Sachs highlights that silver's price volatility and downside risks are significant, with two main risks identified: a potential decline in ETF inflows and supply chain disruptions due to tariff investigations affecting silver imports [3] - Unlike gold, silver lacks structural support from central bank demand, and industrial demand is not a major driver for long-term price increases [3] - The silver market's liquidity is considerably lower than that of gold, with its market size being about one-ninth that of gold, leading to greater price volatility and heightened risks during investor repositioning [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Market Weight" [10] Core Views - The core driving force for the rise in gold prices is the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 94.10% probability of a 25 basis point cut in October [9] - The demand for gold as a safe-haven asset has surged due to concerns over U.S. government stability and geopolitical tensions, providing ongoing support for gold prices [9] - The report anticipates that international gold prices will exhibit a high-level fluctuation in the short to medium term, driven by interest rate cuts and heightened safe-haven demand [9] Summary by Sections - **Gold Price Movement**: As of October 8, COMEX gold futures closed at $4030 per ounce, and London spot gold reached $4040.05 per ounce, both surpassing the $4000 mark [4] - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The Fed's recent 25 basis point cut has initiated a new easing cycle, with potential for two more cuts by year-end, which is expected to lower the cost of holding gold [9] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In Q2 2025, global central banks are projected to net purchase 166 tons of gold, with a strong inclination to continue increasing gold reserves [9] - **Investment Demand**: The World Gold Council reported net inflows into gold ETFs of 226.6 tons and 170.5 tons in Q1 and Q2 respectively, significantly exceeding the previous year's figures [9] - **Market Outlook**: The report suggests that gold prices will maintain upward momentum in the medium to long term due to the interplay of interest rate cuts and rising safe-haven demand [9]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices reached $3,790 per ounce, marking a 1.19% daily increase and over 44% rise year-to-date, driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Citigroup's strategists predict that the bullish trend in gold and silver will extend into copper and aluminum by 2026, supported by declining real interest rates and a weaker dollar [1][7] - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to strong market expectations for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite Chairman Powell's cautious stance [1][2] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - COMEX silver prices rose to $44.51 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 50%, while Shanghai silver futures also hit a near 13-year high [4] - The increase in silver prices is supported by both its financial attributes as a precious metal and its industrial applications, particularly in electronics and renewable energy [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the silver market is more volatile than gold, making it more susceptible to sharp price fluctuations, which could impact industrial demand [6] Group 3: Broader Precious Metals Outlook - The bullish sentiment for gold and silver is expected to extend to other precious metals like copper and aluminum, with forecasts indicating significant price increases in the coming years [7][8] - Factors driving the rise in precious metal prices include a weak dollar, concerns over U.S. economic growth, and increased demand from emerging industries [7][8] - UBS highlights a supply-demand gap in copper, predicting a price target of $11,000 per ton by 2026 due to limited supply growth and increasing demand [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the recent performance and investment trends in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly focusing on the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) which experienced a market pullback but saw significant net subscriptions [1] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) has attracted a total of 181 million yuan in the past 20 days, reaching a historical high of 281 million yuan as of September 15 [1] - Key component stocks such as China Rare Earth, Huaxi Nonferrous, and others have seen declines exceeding 5%, negatively impacting the index performance, while stocks like Lichung Group and Baowu Magnesium have shown positive performance [1] Group 2 - On September 15, spot gold closed at a historical high of $3678.89 per ounce, marking a significant milestone in global financial asset pricing, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased demand for safe-haven assets [3] - The anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts are expected to boost non-ferrous metal prices by increasing the attractiveness of physical assets, depreciating the dollar, and lowering borrowing costs for companies, which could enhance demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3][4] - The current market dynamics suggest a tight supply-demand balance for industrial metals, with emerging industry demands and limited supply growth contributing to price stability [4] Group 3 - The strategic importance of rare earths, tungsten, and antimony is emphasized due to their benefits from global geopolitical dynamics [4] - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to positively influence the lithium, cobalt, and aluminum sectors, leading to a valuation recovery in these areas [4] - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) and its linked funds are designed to track the performance of the non-ferrous metal index, which includes a diversified portfolio of metals such as copper, aluminum, rare earths, and gold, thus providing risk diversification for investors [4]

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market on September 3 saw more declines than increases, with the main contract for eggs rising over 2% and the main contracts for gold and styrene rising over 1% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1440.74 points, up 2.81 points or 0.20% from the previous trading day, while the China Securities Commodity Futures Index closed at 1990.16 points, up 3.88 points or 0.20% [1] Group 2: Egg Market Analysis - The main contract for eggs led the market with a 2.62% increase, closing above the 3000 yuan/500 kg mark, driven by increased demand due to the back-to-school season and Mid-Autumn Festival preparations [2] - Despite the recent rebound, analysts caution that the pressure on egg prices may persist due to limited culling of hens and high inventory levels of laying hens [2] Group 3: Precious Metals Performance - Gold has emerged as a star in the commodity market, with New York futures prices reaching historic highs above $3600 per ounce, and domestic gold prices also rising [3] - The main contract for gold in Shanghai reached a high of 816.78 yuan/kg before closing with a 1.31% increase, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions [3] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Market Trends - Lithium carbonate has seen a continuous decline for seven trading days, with a drop of 3.10% on September 3, attributed to a weak overall supply-demand structure [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was reported at 75,755 yuan/ton, down 1,631 yuan/ton from the previous working day, as market sentiment turns cautious amid high production levels of spodumene [4] Group 5: Shipping Market Dynamics - The shipping market for European routes is experiencing downward pressure, with the main contract declining by 3.04% due to weak spot market conditions [5] - The Maersk 38-week opening price was quoted at $1700/FEU, reflecting a decrease of $200 from the previous week, indicating ongoing pressure in the spot market [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to high gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses, a decline in the US ISM non - manufacturing index, increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, and rising risk - aversion sentiment [3]. - Copper prices showed a slight upward trend on Monday and Tuesday as a correction of the previous decline. COMEX copper's decline may slightly boost the valuations of other copper markets, but investors should be wary of weak copper demand [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to face pressure and fluctuate. Alumina prices are likely to be weak in the short term, while casting aluminum alloy shows good fundamentals [36]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a range - bound movement, with limited downside space. Attention should be paid to macro data, market sentiment, and supply - side disruptions [65]. - For the nickel industry, the nickel ore price is stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation. Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the future trend of nickel sulfate needs further attention [80]. - Tin prices have strong resilience. Supply - side issues remain unresolved, and if the situation drags on, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold - Gold inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange - related warehouses hit a record high, with over 36 tons of gold bars registered as deliverable goods, doubling from last month, indicating active arbitrage and strong investment demand [3]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped to 50.1, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut (90% probability of a rate cut in September). Trump's announcement of tariff hikes on countries like India also boosted risk - aversion sentiment, leading to an increase in the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF for two consecutive days, supporting the strong performance of gold prices [3]. Copper - Copper prices corrected the previous decline on Monday and Tuesday. The price difference between LME copper and COMEX copper has stabilized, and COMEX copper's decline may slightly increase the valuations of other copper markets. However, weak copper demand remains a concern [15]. - The latest prices and daily changes of various copper futures and spot products are provided, including Shanghai copper futures, LME copper, and copper spot prices in different regions [16][24]. - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, refined - scrap price differences, and warehouse receipt data are presented [28][31][32]. Aluminum - Macro - level drivers for aluminum have weakened. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but low absolute inventories support aluminum prices, which are expected to face pressure and fluctuate [36]. - Alumina production capacity is high and in surplus, with rising inventories. The warehouse receipt issue may be resolved in August, and prices are likely to be weak [36]. - Casting aluminum alloy has good fundamentals, with strong support from scrap aluminum prices on the supply side and decent short - term demand [36]. Zinc - Zinc supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, and processing fees are expected to increase this month. Mine supply is abundant, and inventories have been accumulating. Demand is weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to remain range - bound [65]. - The latest prices and changes of zinc futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [66][71][74]. Nickel - The August first - phase nickel product benchmark price in Indonesia has been released. Nickel ore prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream products are showing differentiation [80]. - Nickel iron prices have been slowly declining in the past two weeks, with some support from the supply side due to the expected increase in steel mill production in August [80]. - Stainless steel prices are oscillating strongly, and the stability of the current price level needs further verification. Attention should be paid to whether demand can pick up in August [80]. Tin - Tin prices rose slightly on Tuesday, indicating strong resilience. Supply - side issues from Myanmar's production resumption are uncertain, and if the situation persists, tin prices may continue to rise slightly. The impact of weak demand has not been fully reflected [96]. - The latest prices and changes of tin futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [97][103][105]. Lithium Carbonate - Short - term supply - side disruptions exist, and production scheduling in August is expected to improve. Prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market rhythm changes and position risks [112]. - The latest prices and changes of lithium carbonate futures and spot products, as well as inventory data, are provided [113][115][119]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The upcoming industrial silicon conference is worthy of attention [121]. - The polysilicon market is mainly driven by macro - level sentiment, and prices are expected to fluctuate widely [121]. - The latest prices of industrial silicon spot products, futures prices, and related data such as basis and price differences are provided [122][124].