Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Under the expectation of Sino-US talks, the US market rose strongly with high policy uncertainty. Domestic short - position funds reduced positions to avoid risks. The right to buy ships in China is still poor, and the domestic product valuation is low. With the expectation of crush margin repair, the short - term futures market is expected to continue the rebound trend. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policies and South American weather changes [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - USDA estimates the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season to be 300 million bushels, and the expected yield of 53.5 bushels per acre may have room for downward adjustment. Exports depend on Sino - US policies. According to CONAB data, as of October 25, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 34.4%, compared with 21.1% last week and 37.7% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 42.5%. In November, domestic soybean meal is expected to start destocking, but the domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. If China cannot purchase US soybeans, the soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year still needs to be supplemented, and the source of supplementation is uncertain [7]. Demand - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short term, and the capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the current breeding profit shows a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The downstream trading volume of soybean meal is normal, and the pick - up is good [8]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have dropped to a low level [8]. Price and Spread - **Spot and Futures Basis**: On October 29, the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Dalian was 81, down 34; in Rizhao it was 31, down 34; in Tianjin it was 51; in Dongguan it was - 19; in Zhanjiang it increased by 6; in Fangcheng it increased by 6. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was 60, up 16. The MJ - 5 was 166, down 14, and the RM1 - 5 was - 15 [6]. - **Price Spread**: The spot price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the futures price spread (Wangli) was 596, up 17. The price spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 900, and the current value was 464, down 9 [7]. Other Data - **Exchange Rate and Crush Margin**: The US dollar - RMB exchange rate and the futures crush margin were - 240.00 yuan/ton, down 5 [7]. - **Inventory and Processing**: Data on Chinese port soybean inventory, national major oil mill soybean inventory, national major oil mill soybean meal inventory, feed enterprise soybean meal inventory days, national major oil mill soybean crushing volume, and national major oil mill operating rate are presented in the form of historical data comparison charts [7].

Group 1 - The financial markets are exhibiting contradictory characteristics, with persistent investor anxiety due to high inflation and ongoing policy uncertainties, yet the US stock market has shown an increase this year [2] - The S&P 500 index experienced a significant decline of 20% at its lowest point earlier this year, coinciding with the announcement of a protectionist trade policy in April [2] - Various policy uncertainties, including spending cuts, expanding US deficits, and immigration policies, are contributing to investor unease, alongside warning signs such as rising credit card default rates and weakened consumer data [2][3] Group 2 - Stubborn inflation remains a major concern, with central banks, including the Federal Reserve, indicating a need to address inflation despite growth risks [3] - Geopolitical tensions globally, including wars and climate-sensitive issues, are exacerbating uncertainty, potentially putting risk assets under pressure again [3] - The current market environment prompts a reevaluation of capital market expectations, suggesting that many portfolios may benefit from alternative sources of returns and diversification strategies, particularly hedge fund strategies [3][4] Group 3 - There are strong economic reasons for investors to consider diversifying their portfolios with strategies like hedge funds, as conditions for achieving stable, low-correlated, alpha-driven returns have significantly improved [4] - The differentiation in returns and increased macroeconomic volatility are driving changes in investment strategies, highlighting the need for diversification [4][5] - In the context of rising and persistent inflation, traditional bonds may not always serve as effective hedges, leading investors to seek strategies that provide expected diversification benefits [5]

Core Viewpoint - Investor confidence in high-risk assets may be overstated, as indicated by Dwyfor Evans, the Asia-Pacific Macro Strategy Head at State Street Global Markets [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Investors are currently buying U.S. stocks while hedging against dollar risk and selling U.S. Treasury bonds [1] - Evans anticipates a gradual rise in U.S. inflation due to increases in both imported and domestic goods prices, suggesting that "3% has become the new 2%" [1] Group 2: Implications for Monetary Policy - The rising inflation is crucial for the Federal Reserve, as fewer rate cuts could lead to a rebound in the dollar [1] - Given the ongoing policy uncertainty, Evans warns that current market risk positions may be overly optimistic [1]

全球市场正上演诡异一幕：黄金涨势如1979年般狂热，股市则重现1999年的繁荣盛况。但这两个时代截 然不同——前者以恶性通胀和地缘动荡为标志，后者则是互联网泡沫狂热与地缘局势相对平稳的结合。 多数分析师认为，黄金在股市新一波繁荣中飙升，是因为投资者希望对冲政策不确定性（尤其是美国的 政策风险）。但这一理论暗含矛盾：全球投资者需同时接纳"人工智能驱动美股的乐观情绪"与"以黄金 为代表的谨慎立场"，这种认知失调的容忍度堪称反常。更反常的是对冲选择的本身——相比黄金，更 直接的避险工具（如买入股票看跌期权）当前价格更低，为何还要选黄金？ 现任洛克菲勒国际董事长鲁奇尔·夏尔马（Ruchir Sharma）认为，黄金与股市"比翼双飞"另有原因：海 量流动性。疫情期间及之后，各国政府与央行推出数万亿美元刺激政策，大量资金仍在市场中流转，持 续推动股市、黄金等多类资产的趋势性交易。受此影响，美国人持有的货币市场共同基金规模在疫情后 激增，目前已达7.5万亿美元，较长期趋势高出1.5万亿美元以上。 尽管美联储称其政策"温和紧缩"，但实际情况是，名义利率仍低于名义GDP增速，这使得金融环境维 持宽松。各国政府也在推波助澜——美 ...

Core Insights - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) report indicates that while the global economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, it is now experiencing signs of moderate slowdown, which is expected to persist long-term [1][2] - The report highlights that the initial strong economic activity was driven by short-term factors, and as these dissipate, global economic data is showing weakness [1][3] Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, global economic activities were robust, with inflation levels in the US and Asian economies being well-controlled [1] - The global economic growth rate is projected to decline from 3.6% at the end of 2024 to 2.6% at the end of this year, with forecasts of 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026 [1][2] Risks and Challenges - The report identifies ongoing downward risks to the global economy, including policy uncertainty, rising protectionism, and restrictive immigration policies, which could negatively impact consumption and investment [3] - The potential volatility in the artificial intelligence sector poses a risk to economic growth, with possible repercussions for technology stocks and overall financial market stability [3] Policy Recommendations - Policymakers are urged to establish clear and transparent trade policies to reduce uncertainty and support investment, while modernizing trade rules to adapt to the digital age [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal sustainability and suggests that countries should implement structural reforms to enhance resilience and growth prospects [4]

国际金价再度改写历史，现货黄金突破每盎司4300美元关口，年内累计涨幅超过60%，自2024年初以来的涨幅翻倍。美股三大指数齐跌，美元指数跌 0.3%，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数VIX收于25.31，创4月24日以来最高收盘水平。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | Q | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | | /22 / 20 FF 4206.575 芯里 | | | 0 | | +119.905 +2.85% 开盘 | | 4208.757 现手 | 0 | | 最高价 4330.660 持 仓 | | 0 外 盘 | O | | 4199.000 增 仓 最低价 | | 内 盘 0 | 0 | | 分时 月K 更多 © 五日 日K | | 周Ｋ | | | 60分钟 90分钟 120分钟 幸K 未年K | | 4小时 | 年K | | 叠加 设均线 EXPMA5:2831.775↑ 20:1720.188↑ 60:947.281↑ 120: | | | | | 4724.717 ---- 4330.660 ---- | | | | | 2 ...

Valuation and Market Concentration - Current stock valuations are estimated to be about 10% overvalued on average, which is less severe than the 20% overvaluation seen during the tech bubble of 1999 [1] - There is a high concentration of profitability among a small number of stocks, particularly those benefiting from the AI narrative, which raises concerns about how this concentration will affect future valuations [2][3] - The interconnectedness of these top-performing stocks could increase downside risks if negative shocks occur, although no such reassessment of valuations has been observed to date [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate focuses on price stability and full employment, with financial conditions influencing the transmission of monetary policy but not being a direct target [4][5] - There are discussions about whether the Fed should consider cutting interest rates due to asset price concerns, which could exacerbate growth cycles [4] Investment Trends and Safe Havens - There is a notable shift of investment into gold and cryptocurrencies as a response to concerns about currency debasement and market uncertainty [6] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to high levels of policy uncertainty, including tariff issues and broader global fragmentation concerns [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Group 2: Report's Core View - Precious metals are in a long - term bull market and have strategic allocation value, with the decline of the US dollar credit as the core cornerstone [3]. - The long - term upward drivers of precious metals are composed of "interest rate cut pricing + policy uncertainty + geopolitical risks" [1][3]. - In the next 1 - 2 quarters, there is still room for trading Fed rate cuts, and the risks related to independence remain, so the interest rate - end drivers persist [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting from November 1st and consider expanding key software export restrictions, and then his stance eased, but the market still focuses on the negotiation uncertainty around APEC [2]. - The US government shutdown has entered the third week, affecting fiscal implementation and economic data release [2]. - Powell said the economy is struggling among growth, employment, and price risks, and the market tends to price in 25bp rate cuts in October and December [2]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, maintaining geopolitical risk aversion [2]. Price Logic - On October 14th, gold and silver prices rose significantly and then fell. The volatility of precious metals has increased this week, showing characteristics of the end of a phased rise. Short - term volatility risks should be watched out for [3]. - Gold's decline today was due to the strengthening of the US dollar, the easing of tariff uncertainty, and capital de - leveraging and profit - taking [3]. - Silver's decline was larger than gold's, due to basis convergence, cooling of squeeze - out trading, and the self - strengthening of high volatility [3]. Outlook - This week, attention should be paid to the government shutdown, tariff path guidance, and geopolitical events. The price range for London gold is [4020 - 4200] US dollars per ounce, and for London silver is [50 - 55] US dollars per ounce [4]. Commodity Index - On October 14, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined, with decreases of 0.43%, 0.25%, and 0.93% respectively [45]. Precious Metals Index - On October 14, 2025, the precious metals index rose 0.86% today, 6.86% in the past 5 days, 14.73% in the past month, and 49.14% since the beginning of the year [47].

在全球通胀方面，IMF预计总体通胀率将从2024年的5.8%稳步下降至2025年的4.2%，并在2026年进一步 回落至3.7%。尽管趋势向好，但区域间分化明显。 拉美短期改善，中长期隐忧浮现 IMF将拉丁美洲及加勒比地区2025年经济增长预期从2.2%上调至2.4%，但将2026年预期从2.4%下调至 2.3%。 墨西哥成为区域亮点，2025年增长预期由0.2%大幅上调至1.0%，2026年亦升至1.5%。 巴西2025年增长预期微升至2.4%，但2026年下调至1.9%，债务占产出比例预计将显著上升。阿根廷则 面临明显恶化，2025年增长预期从5.5%下调至4.5%，2026年进一步降至4.0%。 该地区通胀压力显著缓解，预计2025年通胀率将降至7.6%，2026年进一步降至5.0%，远低于2024年的 16.6%。IMF指出，增长预期调整主要源于"美国关税税率低于预期、美元意外走弱以及贸易前置效应支 撑短期表现"。 新华财经北京10月14日电（崔凯）国际货币基金组织（IMF）在14日发布的《世界经济展望》中，小幅 上调2025年全球实际GDP增速预测至3.2%，高于7月预测的3.0%；2024年和20 ...

Core Insights - The UK construction sector's activity has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, reflecting a cautious outlook among businesses regarding the economic future [1][2] - The September PMI for the UK construction industry rose slightly to 46.2 from 45.5 in August, marking a three-month high but still indicating a contraction below the neutral level of 50 [1] - Employment in the construction sector has seen a decline for the first time in five months, highlighting the challenges faced in the overall economic recovery [1] Industry Performance - The construction sector's performance remains weak across various segments, with residential building activity continuing to struggle and civil engineering experiencing its first contraction since February 2023 [1] - The commercial sub-sector is also facing a downward trend, indicating widespread challenges within the industry [1] Economic Factors - High borrowing costs, a sluggish real estate market, and policy uncertainty are identified as primary factors suppressing the recovery of the UK construction industry [2] - The persistent inflationary pressures have led to a consumer price index increase of 3.8% in August, significantly above the Eurozone level, forcing the Bank of England to maintain a high base interest rate of 4% [2] - The government's recent proposal to stimulate infrastructure investment is seen as a potential positive, but the clarity of budget policies will be crucial in determining the industry's direction [2]