| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/23 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br | 鹿特丹10ppm G | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H | | | O掉期 M1 | FO掉期 M1 | ent M1 | asoil掉期 M1 | O M1 | | SFO M1 | | 2025/12/16 | 316.99 | 364.37 | -8.87 | 588.11 | -223.74 | 22.32 | 47.38 | | 2025/12/17 | 325.12 | 368.94 | -8.40 | 594.14 | -225.20 | 22.33 | 43.82 | | 2025/12/18 | 327.47 | 369.76 | -8.26 | 593.29 | -223.53 | 22.13 | 42.29 | | ...

集运早报 | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/12/23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ਵਨ | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 | 基美 | 昨日成交昼 | | 昨日持仓屋 | 持仓变动 | | | EC2512 | | 1631.0 | 0.06% | -41.8 | 100 | | 1956 | -27 | | | EC2602 | | 1871.8 | 8.84% | -282.6 | 52704 | | 36510 | 5003 | | | EC2604 | | 1166.8 | 3.37% | 422.4 | 11708 | | 20471 | 1634 | | | EC2606 | | 1320.0 | 2.46% | 269.2 | 587 | | 2184 | -36 | | | EC2608 | | 1486.2 | 2.27% | 103.0 | 256 | | 1197 | -91 | | 期货 | EC2610 | | 1061.0 | 1.02% | ...

| 国 内 F U | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | FU 01 | FU 05 | FU 09 | FU 01-05 | FU 05-09 | FU 09-01 | | 2025/12/15 | 2417 | 2474 | 2445 | -57 | 29 | 28 | | 2025/12/16 | 2368 | 2431 | 2400 | -63 | 31 | 32 | | 2025/12/17 | 2384 | 2444 | 2412 | -60 | 32 | 28 | | 2025/12/18 | 2403 | 2464 | 2431 | -61 | 33 | 28 | | 2025/12/19 | 2356 | 2415 | 2382 | -59 | 33 | 26 | | 变化 | -47 | -49 | -49 | 2 | 0 | -2 | 国 内 L U | 日期 | LU 01 | LU 05 | LU 09 | LU 01-05 | LU 05-09 | LU 09-01 | | --- | -- ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Report Core View - The LPG market is characterized by a tight supply of Middle Eastern resources, rising premiums, and high prices in winter. The 1 - month CP official price is approaching release. The internal and external valuations are high, but the driving force is weak, and the internal and external trading logics are differentiated. The upward driving force of FEI is limited, and the domestic market needs to focus on the negative feedback between warehouse receipts and PDH, with high uncertainty [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Price and Basis - On December 15 - 19, 2025, the prices of Shandong LPG, propane CIF Japan, Shandong ether - after carbon four, etc. fluctuated. The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 143 and a daily change of (- 19). The 01 - 02 month spread was 145 (+ 26), the 02 - 03 month spread was 166 (+ 5), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 185 (+ 21). The FEI was 512 (+ 6) and the CP was 498 (- 1) US dollars/ton [4] Market Trends - The LPG futures price rebounded. The 01 basis was 162 (- 187), the 01 - 02 month spread was 119 (+ 35), and the 03 - 04 month spread was - 206 (+ 33). The number of warehouse receipts was 3368 lots (- 108). Domestic civil LPG prices were differentiated, with the most suitable delivery product being Shandong at 4380 (- 50), East China at 4398 (- 21), and South China at 4500 (+ 80). The FEI month spread strengthened, the CP month spread weakened, and the oil - gas ratio fluctuated [4] Profit and Inventory - The PDH spot profit was weak, but the futures profit rebounded. The number of arriving ships decreased by 7.64%, and the port inventory decreased by 7.89%. The refinery commercial volume increased by 0.82%, and the refinery inventory decreased by 0.03%. The PDH operating rate was 75% (+ 2.13 pct) [4]

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF O掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS FO掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br ent M1 | 鹿特丹10ppm G asoil掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G O M1 | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H SFO M1 | | 2025/12/12 | 328.74 | 376.62 | -8.97 | 608.68 | -232.06 | 22.87 | 47.88 | | 2025/12/15 | 320.55 | 375.22 | -9.66 | 602.86 | -227.64 | 22.59 | 54.67 | | 2025/12/16 | 316.99 | 364.37 | -8.87 | 588.11 | -223.74 | 22.32 | 47.38 | | 2025/12/17 | 325. ...

| | | | | 燃料油早报 | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/12/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 燃 料 油 | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 鹿特丹3.5% HSF O掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹0.5% VLS FO掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹HSFO-Br ent M1 | 鹿特丹10ppm G asoil掉期 M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-G O M1 | LGO-Brent M1 | 鹿特丹VLSFO-H SFO M1 | | 2025/12/11 | 328.55 | 375.86 | -8.95 | 609.75 | -233.89 | 22.88 | 47.31 | | 2025/12/12 | 328.74 | 376.62 | -8.97 | 608.68 | -232.06 | 22.87 | 47.88 | | 2025/12/15 | 320.55 | 375.22 | -9.66 | 602.86 | -227.64 | 22.59 | 54.67 | | 2025/12/16 | 316. ...

Group 1: Core View - The LPG futures price declined due to falling oil prices, PDH shutdown news, and an increase in warehouse receipts. The domestic civil gas price also dropped. The external paper market first rose and then fell, with the FEI and CP spreads strengthening and the MB spread weakening. The oil - gas ratio declined, and the domestic - foreign spread weakened. The US - Asia arbitrage window opened. Overall, Middle Eastern supplies are tight, and winter prices are unlikely to fall significantly. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the subsequent PDH start - up under high costs and the situation of factory warehouse receipts [4] Group 2: Data Summary Daily Price Changes - Civil gas prices: In East China, it was 4398 (-10); in Shandong, it was 4410 (-30); in South China, it was 4490 (+30). The price of ether - post - carbon four was 4600 (+30). The lowest delivery location was East China [4] - Basis daily change: 84 (-6); 01 - 02 spread: 124 (+0); 03 - 04 spread: -208 (-2). As of 22:00, FEI was 509 (+1) and CP was 501 (-2) dollars/ton [4] Futures - related Data - LPG futures basis was 265 (+122), 01 - 02 spread was 84 (+5), 03 - 04 spread was -223 (-12), and warehouse receipts were 5476 lots (+865) [4] Market Spread Data - PG - CP dropped to 71 (-28), PG - FEI dropped to 65 (-14). The East China propane arrival premium was 85 (-7), and the AFEI, Middle East, and US propane FOB premiums were 42 (+12), 42 (+17), and 47 (+4) respectively [4] Supply - related Data - The arrival volume increased by 12.25%, port inventory increased by 3.22%, external supply increased slightly by 1.3%, and refinery storage capacity increased slightly by 0.27%. The PDH operating rate was 72.87% (+2.65pct) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking fluctuated, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels. The high - sulfur cracking in Europe weakened, the monthly spread weakened, and the EW strengthened. The 0.5% cracking in Singapore fluctuated at a historical low, the monthly spread and basis fluctuated at low levels, and the VLSFO cracking in Singapore further weakened. [3] - In terms of inventory, the residual fuel oil in Singapore, high - sulfur floating storage, ARA residual fuel oil, and Fujairah residual fuel oil all increased in stock, the high - sulfur floating storage decreased in stock, and the EIA residual fuel oil decreased in stock. [3][4] - This week, the cracking of gasoline and diesel in the external market continued to decline, and the price difference between low - sulfur and diesel continued to rebound. After the Al Zour refinery shut down due to a fire on October 21, the external low - sulfur market has support, but the short - term upward space is limited. [4] - The global residual fuel oil has entered the off - season for inventory accumulation. The external cracking is affected by crude oil fluctuations, and there is no improvement in the spot market, so it is regarded as bearish. The low - sulfur valuation is low but there is currently no driving force. [4] 3. Summary of Related Data Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 4.89, the price of Rotterdam 0.5% VLSFO swap M1 decreased by 11.93, and the price of Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 0.76. [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Data - **Swap Data**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 decreased by 6.43, the price of Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 2.93, and the price of Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 9.91. [1][7] - **Spot Data**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the FOB 380cst price decreased by 4.96, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 8.09, the 380 - basis data is incomplete, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference increased by 0.4, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 2.3. [2] Domestic Fuel Oil Futures Data - **FU Futures**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the prices of FU 01, FU 05, and FU 09 decreased by 49, 43, and 45 respectively. The price difference between FU 01 - 05 decreased by 6, the price difference between FU 05 - 09 increased by 2, and the price difference between FU 09 - 01 increased by 4. [2] - **LU Futures**: From December 10 to December 16, 2025, the prices of LU 01, LU 05, and LU 09 decreased by 88, 69, and 62 respectively. The price difference between LU 01 - 05 decreased by 19, the price difference between LU 05 - 09 decreased by 7, and the price difference between LU 09 - 01 increased by 26. [3]

研究中心能化团队 2025/12/17 s 加安期货 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | | | | MISCLABO METAL FAEST | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11/14 | 指标 山东基差(+80)(非京博) | | -27 | | 12/10 -40 | 12/12 -42 | | 12/15 -53 | 12/16 16 | 日度变化 69 | 博 | | 华东基差(镇江库) | | | 113 | | 100 | 18 | | 17 | 86 | રત | | | 华南基差(佛山库) | | | ਰੇਤੇ | | 20 | -32 | | -33 | 36 | રત | | | 基差&月差 | | | | | | | | | | | | | -39 | 01-03 | | -45 | | -36 | | | -30 | -52 | 5 | | | -26 | 02-03 | | | | -18 | -18 | | -19 | -22 | -3 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and market news for each product [2]. - Overall, the market shows a mixed trend, with some products in a high - level or low - level shock state, while others face supply - demand pressures or have short - term rebound opportunities. Summary by Product PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level shock market. Demand is seasonally weakening, but supply remains tight. The upside space is limited due to weakening demand and the end of the blending logic. The recommended operation range is 6550 - 7000, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][10]. - **PTA**: In a high - level shock market. The cost - side PX supply is tight, but polyester is accumulating inventory and incurring losses, so the upside space is limited. The recommended operation range is 4500 - 4800, and some hedging positions should be closed [2][11]. - **MEG**: The unexpected load reduction improves the inventory accumulation pressure, and there is short - term support below. The price has reached the cost line of most production devices, and some factories have stopped operating [2][11]. Rubber - In a shock operation state. The price has a small increase, and the inventory has increased. The trend strength is neutral [12]. Synthetic Rubber - The shock center moves up. The inventory of domestic butadiene rubber has decreased slightly, and the supply of butadiene has decreased marginally. The industry is under pressure but supported by valuation [15][18]. Asphalt - Affected by the rising situation in Venezuela. The price shows a shock trend, with changes in production capacity utilization and inventory in different regions [19][30]. LLDPE - Unilateral decline, with limited basis strengthening. The futures price is under pressure, and the demand is weakening. The supply pressure from high - capacity and weak demand needs to be concerned in the medium term [33][34]. PP - Under upstream selling pressure, with the price difference between powder and granular materials inverted. The cost support is limited, the demand is weak, and it is expected to continue the weak trend. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [37][38]. Caustic Soda - Short - term rebound, but still under pressure later. Although the futures price rebounded due to macro and alumina factors, it is still in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the demand is difficult to support [40][41]. Pulp - In a wide - range shock state. The upward momentum comes from external cost and supply tightening expectations, while the downward pressure comes from high domestic inventory and weak terminal demand [44][47]. Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable. The futures price has a slight decline, and the spot price shows mixed trends in different regions. The northern region is affected by snowfall [52]. Methanol - Shock rebound. The port inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved. However, the MTO fundamentals are weak, and there is a price limit above, while the cost provides support below [54][58]. Urea - Short - term shock operation. The enterprise inventory is decreasing, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. The policy and cost form a support below, and there is a pressure level above [60][62]. Styrene - Short - term shock. The pure benzene market is in a shock state, with weak current situation and strong future expectations. The styrene downstream is in a high - start, high - inventory, and medium - profit pattern [63][64]. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The enterprise production is stable, and the downstream demand is flat, with poor procurement enthusiasm [67][68]. LPG - Short - term shock, with a downward trend in the long term. The price shows a shock trend, and there are changes in PDH and other operating rates [71][72]. Propylene - Short - term narrow - range adjustment. The price and relevant operating rates show certain changes [72]. PVC - Low - level shock. The market is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and there is a short - term rebound expectation, but the large - scale production reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [80][81]. Fuel Oil - The night - session rebounds, temporarily getting rid of the weak state. The low - sulfur fuel oil is weaker than the high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the external market rebounds slightly [83]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Short - term sentiment is optimistic, and it is in a medium - term shock market. The freight rate index shows an upward trend, and there are changes in shipping capacity and schedules [85]. Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - Medium - term pressure. It is recommended to hold long PTA and short short - fiber/bottle - chip positions. The futures prices are in a low - level shock state, and the spot prices show certain changes [94][95]. Offset Printing Paper - It is recommended to wait and see. The spot price is stable, and the market demand is weak, with strong wait - and - see sentiment [97][98]. Pure Benzene - Short - term shock. The port inventory has increased, and the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and overseas market conditions [102][103].