Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. Instead, it gives individual ratings for different commodities, such as "follow oil price rebound, short PXN on rallies" for paraxylene, "long PX short PTA, unilateral trend rebound" for PTA, etc. [2] Core Views - The report analyzes the fundamentals, market trends, and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical commodities. It takes into account factors like supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and macro - economic events to evaluate the price trends of each commodity. For example, for some commodities, it expects short - term rebounds due to factors like improved demand expectations or cost support, while for others, it anticipates long - term downward pressure due to high supply and weak demand [2][7][39] Summary by Commodity Paraxylene (PX) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral price short - term rebound, PXN short on rallies [2][7] - **Fundamentals**: This week, there were few changes in PX devices. Domestic device operating rate was 85.9% (+1%), and Asian overall load operating rate was 78.5% (+0.5%). Next week, some devices will restart or postpone maintenance. PX supply is slightly tight, and PTA load has increased [7] Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA) - **Price Trend**: Unilateral trend is strong in the short - term [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: New devices have started operation, and some devices have adjusted their loads. Polyester load remains stable, downstream orders have improved, and inventory has decreased. Market demand expectations are positive [8] Monoethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Price Trend**: Short - term rebound, positive basis and calendar spread arbitrage [2][9] - **Fundamentals**: Oil - based plant operating rate has decreased, and import arrivals are lower than expected. Some devices are under maintenance, and coal - based device profits are negative [9] Rubber - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][10] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. China's natural rubber imports in October are expected to decrease, and tire production capacity utilization has increased [11][13] Synthetic Rubber - **Price Trend**: Central price moves up supported by macro - sentiment [2][14] - **Fundamentals**: Futures trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices of some products have risen. But the industry faces high supply pressure, and inventory has increased. However, due to many maintenance plans in November, the fundamentals are expected to improve marginally [14][17] Asphalt - **Price Trend**: Follow oil price fluctuations [2][19] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume and positions have decreased. Spot prices in some regions have increased, refinery operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory has changed little [19][32] Linear Low - Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) - **Price Trend**: Mainly sideways [2][34] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have fluctuated slightly. Raw material oil prices have rebounded, but supply pressure will increase in the future [34][35] Polypropylene (PP) - **Price Trend**: Weak trend [2][38] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are flat, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Trade war, oil price, high supply, and low downstream profits jointly form downward pressure, but there is a short - term rebound due to factors like oil price rebound and supply reduction [38][39] Caustic Soda - **Price Trend**: Far - month valuation is suppressed [2][42] - **Fundamentals**: Alumina enterprises' high inventory puts pressure on caustic soda spot prices. Although there is new demand in some regions, the impact of alumina production reduction cannot be ignored, and cost has decreased [42][44] Pulp - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][48] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has decreased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices are stable. Supply pressure persists, and demand is weak [49][50] Glass - **Price Trend**: Raw sheet prices are stable [2][52] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable, and downstream orders are average [53] Methanol - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][55] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased, trading volume has decreased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Port inventory has increased slightly, and the market is under supply pressure, but there is support from port logistics [56][58] Urea - **Price Trend**: Sideways movement [2][60] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have decreased. Spot prices have risen slightly. Short - term rebound is due to macro - events and increased demand from compound fertilizer factories, but long - term pressure remains due to high supply and weak demand [61][63] Soda Ash - **Price Trend**: Spot market changes little [2][65] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen slightly, trading volume has increased, and positions have increased. Spot prices are stable. Device supply has increased slightly, and downstream demand is average [66] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Price Trend**: Limited upward drive, focus on cost changes [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Some industrial device operating rates have increased. CP paper prices have decreased [68][72] Propylene - **Price Trend**: Short - term weak sideways due to loose supply and demand [2][68] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have decreased slightly, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices have decreased slightly, and supply and demand are relatively loose [68] Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - **Price Trend**: Low - level sideways [2][75] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices are weak, and spot prices are stable. Supply is expected to increase, demand is weak, inventory is high, and export growth may slow down [75] Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Uptrend continues, strong in the short - term [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have risen, trading volume and positions have changed. Spot prices in various regions have increased, and the price difference between high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil has decreased [78] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Price Trend**: Weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [2][78] - **Fundamentals**: Similar to fuel oil, but the price increase is relatively smaller [78] Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Price Trend**: Sideways consolidation [2][80] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices have changed, trading volume and positions have changed. Freight rates of some routes have increased, and shipping capacity has changed [80]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market for polyolefins is expected to stop falling in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term. For PP, the short - term market rebounds reasonably, but in the long - term, it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. For PE, it is in a fluctuating market in the short - term [1][5][8]. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 1. Viewpoint Overview PP - **Supply**: This week, the domestic polypropylene production was 77.76 tons, a decrease of 2.92% from last week. Next week, the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to stay around 75.8%. - **Demand**: The average downstream industry start - up rate shows an upward trend. With the approaching of Double Eleven and the cold weather, the demand for terminal products is slightly supported. - **Viewpoint**: Although there are downward pressures, recent factors such as the rebound of oil prices and phased production cuts on the supply side lead to a short - term market rebound. In the long - term, the downward driving factors are difficult to fundamentally solve, so it may be in a weakly fluctuating pattern. - **Valuation**: The basis and monthly spread are weak, and the short - term valuation is moderately weak [5][7]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is weakly fluctuating, with an upper pressure of 7000 - 7050 and a lower support of 6500 - 6550; for inter - period trading, buy 05 and sell 01 in the short - term; no recommendation for cross - variety trading [7]. PE - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene producers is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period. In October, the maintenance volume decreased compared to September, and later the supply pressure will gradually increase. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries such as agricultural films and packaging films is strong, which supports the market and helps reduce inventory. - **Viewpoint**: The rebound of crude oil prices and stable downstream demand lead to a short - term fluctuating market. - **Valuation**: The basis fluctuates, the monthly spread weakens, and the L - LL spread fluctuates and weakens, with a moderate valuation. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is range - bound, with an upper pressure of 7000, 7200 for the 01 contract and a lower support of 6850; no recommendation for inter - period and cross - variety trading [8]. 2. Polypropylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The price difference between powder and granular materials and the price difference between copolymer and drawn materials have rebounded [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The average capacity utilization rate in this period is 75.94%, a decrease of 2.28% compared to the previous period [22]. - **Maintenance Situation**: Many devices are in long - term or short - term maintenance, and the planned maintenance loss is expected to remain high [24]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 470.5 tons, with a capacity increase of 10.5% [26]. - **Inventory**: The production and trader inventories have decreased. The total commercial inventory is 92.53 tons, a decrease of 6.08% compared to the previous period [32]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [34]. - **Profit**: The profits of oil - based and PDH production methods have declined [40]. - **Downstream Industry**: BOPP has stable start - up, increased order days, and decreased finished - product inventory, but the profit is still at a low level; the start - up of tape master rolls has increased, but the order days have decreased; the start - up and order days of plastic weaving have remained flat; the start - up of non - woven fabrics has remained flat, and the finished - product inventory is moderately high; the start - up and order days of CPP have increased [42][50][53][58][61]. 3. Polyethylene Supply and Demand - **Price Difference**: The L - LL spread fluctuates and declines, and the HD - LL spread fluctuates and rises. The inventory of HDPE and LDPE in social sample warehouses has decreased, while that of LLDPE has increased [66][69]. - **Start - up and Production**: The start - up rate and production have decreased. The capacity utilization rate is 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period, and the production this week is 64.81 tons, a decrease of 0.37% from last week [71][73]. - **Maintenance**: The maintenance loss in October has decreased compared to September [74]. - **New Capacity**: In 2025, the potential new capacity is 613 tons, with a capacity increase of 17.17% [75]. - **Inventory**: The production and social inventories have decreased. The sample inventory of producers is 51.46 tons, a decrease of 2.81% compared to the previous period [80]. - **Cost**: The increase in crude oil prices has raised the oil - based production cost [81]. - **Profit**: The profit of the oil - based production device has declined [87]. - **Downstream Industry**: The start - up and order days of agricultural films and packaging films have increased; the start - up rates of pipes and hollow products are lower than the same period last year [89][91][92].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, there is a bottom - support sentiment in the pig market, but contradictions continue to accumulate. The rebound of spot prices in October led to an extension of the inventory accumulation cycle due to increased second - round fattening enthusiasm, postponing the pressure. The futures market is expected to enter an adjustment phase [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (10.20 - 10.26) - **Spot Market**: Pig prices showed a strong - side oscillation. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 19.4 yuan/kg (last week: 20.4 yuan/kg), the pig price in Henan was 11.98 yuan/kg (last week: 11.38 yuan/kg), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1546 yuan/head (last week: 1566 yuan/head). The average national slaughter weight was 124.75KG, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06%. The supply tightened slightly as group slaughter progress was fast and individual farmers were reluctant to sell. Low prices stimulated demand, and the slaughter volume increased significantly [2]. - **Futures Market**: Pig futures prices showed a strong - side performance. The highest price of the LH2511 contract was 11615 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11200 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11490 yuan/ton (last week: 11050 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2511 contract was 490 yuan/ton (last week: 330 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (10.27 - 11.2) - **Spot Market**: Pig spot prices will oscillate. After the sharp decline after the National Day holiday, low prices stimulated demand and second - round fattening. Supply is expected to increase continuously, but low prices have boosted demand. The inventory accumulation cycle has been extended, and the pressure has been postponed. Attention should be paid to the market sentiment after the rebound at the end of the month and the beginning of the next month [3]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2511 contract price closed at 11490 yuan/ton on October 24. Short - term spot prices are expected to oscillate upward, but the market is expected to enter an adjustment phase. The support level for the LH2511 contract is 11000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 12000 yuan/ton. Traders should pay attention to stop - loss and take - profit [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Month - spread**: This week's basis was 490 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 month - spread was - 685 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: In August, pork production was 5.309 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.9%; pork imports were 80,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.02%. The average slaughter weight this week was 124.75KG [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - There is no clear core view explicitly stated in the given content. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Basis and Monthly Spread - The Shandong basis (+80) (Hongrun) decreased from 197 on 9/23 to 141 on 10/22, a daily change of -92 [3]. - The East China basis (Zhenjiang Warehouse) decreased from 47 on 9/23 to 81 on 10/22, with a daily change of -92 [3]. - The South China basis (Foshan Warehouse) decreased from 77 on 9/23 to 71 on 10/22, a daily change of -102 [3]. - The 12 - 01 spread decreased from 36 on 9/23 to 19 on 10/22, a daily change of -14 [3]. - The 12 - 03 spread increased from 23 on 9/23 to 9 on 10/22, a daily change of 4 [3]. - The 01 - 02 spread increased from -4 on 9/23 to -4 on 10/22, a daily change of 3 [3]. 2. Futures - The BU main contract (01) price increased from 3373 on 9/23 to 3249 on 10/22, a daily change of 92 [3]. - The trading volume increased from 280,475 on 9/23 to 389,960 on 10/22, a daily change of 110,926 [3]. - The open interest decreased from 425,862 on 9/23 to 368,817 on 10/22, a daily change of -2,998 [3]. - The warehouse receipts remained at 13,040 from 10/16 to 10/22, with no change [3]. 3. Spot - Brent crude oil price increased from 66.6 on 9/23 to 61.3 on 10/22, a daily change of 0.3 [3]. - Jingbo's price decreased from 3610 on 9/23 to 3310 on 10/22, a daily change of -10 [3]. - Hongrun's price remained at 3310 from 10/21 to 10/22, with no change [3]. - Zhenjiang Warehouse's price remained at 3330 from 10/20 to 10/22, with no change [3]. - Foshan Warehouse's price decreased from 3450 on 9/23 to 3320 on 10/22, a daily change of -10 [3]. 4. Profit - The asphalt - Ma Rui profit decreased from 334 on 9/23 to 464 on 10/22, a daily change of -24 [3]. - The Ma Rui - type refinery's comprehensive profit decreased from 792 on 9/23 to 905 on 10/22, a daily change of -13 [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PG main contract significantly increased due to news disturbances in macro and geopolitical aspects. The basis was -20 (-334), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The external market prices tumbled. FEI monthly spread was -10 US dollars (+5), and CP monthly spread was -4 US dollars (+5). The internal - external price difference PG - CP reached 132 (+27); PG - FEI reached 112 (+14). FEI - CP reached 20 (+12.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane increased significantly, with South China at 78 (+26). Freight rates dropped sharply, with the US Gulf - Japan at 108 (-18) and the Middle East - Far East at 60.5 (-2.5). FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window remained open, at -71 (-12). PDH - to - propylene profit declined. Inventory pressure was high, with short - term supply pressure large, but supported by chemical demand and the expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12 pct), with Zhongjing Phase II restored, but Bohua under maintenance and Wanda Tianhong having a short - term shutdown; enterprises were expected to gradually increase their loads next week. Although the spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis fell sharply to negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term [1]. 3) Summary According to Related Catalogs Daily Changes - On Tuesday, civil gas showed differentiation, with a rebound in Shandong. In East China, it was 4264 (-74), in Shandong 4200 (+110), and in South China 4420 (-30). Ether - after carbon four was 4390 (-10). The lowest deliverable area was Shandong, with a basis of 49 (+197), and the 11 - 12 monthly spread was 151 (+9). FEI declined and CP fluctuated, at 465 (+2) and 440 (-2) US dollars/ton respectively [1]. Weekly View - The PG main contract rose significantly because of macro and geopolitical news. The basis decreased by 334 to -20, and the 11 - 12 monthly spread increased by 59 to 137. Domestic civil gas prices dropped substantially. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas with a price reduction of 250 to 4200; East China was 4345 (-39), and South China was 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. External market prices dropped sharply. FEI and CP monthly spreads increased by 5 US dollars, reaching -10 and -4 respectively. The internal - external price differences PG - CP, PG - FEI, and FEI - CP all increased. The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. The arrival discount of CP propane and butane in South China increased by 26 to 78. Freight rates decreased significantly. FEI - MOPJ narrowed but the switching window was still open. PDH - to - propylene profit decreased. Inventory pressure was high, but there was support from chemical demand and an expected recovery of combustion demand. PDH operating rate decreased by 2.12 pct to 68.76%. Although spot supply pressure was large and the PG basis dropped sharply, the futures market might not decline significantly in the short term due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances [1].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The inventory pressure is high, and the short - term supply pressure is large, but there is support from chemical demand, and the combustion demand is expected to pick up. Although the spot supply pressure is large and the PG basis has dropped significantly and turned negative, due to tariff policies and geopolitical disturbances, the market may not decline significantly in the short term [1]. 3) Key Points from the Table and Analysis - **Price Changes on October 20th - 21st**: - On October 21st, the civil gas prices decreased. In East China, it was 4338 (-7), in Shandong 4090 (-110), and in South China 4450 (-10). The post - ether carbon four was 4400 (-20). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of - 161 (-41), and the November - December spread was 138 (+1). FEI and CP decreased to 456 (-15) and 438 (-9) dollars/ton respectively [1]. - **Weekly Changes and Other Information**: - The PG main contract rose significantly due to macro and geopolitical news. The basis was - 20 (-334), and the November - December spread was 137 (+59). Domestic civil gas prices dropped significantly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4200 (-250); in East China it was 4345 (-39), and in South China 4460 (-110). Wanhua added 2300 lots of warehouse receipts. The overseas market prices dropped sharply. The FEI - CP spread was 20 (+12.5), and the US - Asia arbitrage window was closed. The CP propane - butane arrival discount in South China increased to 78 (+26). Freight rates decreased significantly. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed but the switching window was still open at - 71 (-12). The profit of PDH to produce propylene decreased. The PDH operating rate was 68.76% (-2.12pct). Next week, the operating enterprises are expected to gradually increase their loads [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for different energy and chemical products, the mid - term outlooks are provided, including "weak and volatile", "volatile", and "weak - trending with volatility". 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal price increases support the coal - chemical industry, while China's port fees on US - related vessels negatively impact US crude oil physicals. The contrast between strong coal and weak oil prices makes the hedging between coal - chemical and oil - chemical industries potentially valuable again [2][3]. - For coal - chemical products, PVC, methanol, and urea are considered for long - positions, with PVC potentially being more stable in terms of cost. For oil - chemical products, olefins are short - positions, and the new styrene production device may face challenges due to high inventory [3]. - Overall, the energy and chemical market still takes crude oil as a reference and is expected to continue its weak - trending with volatility [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Outlook - **Crude Oil**: Macro - factors affect the rhythm, and the fundamentals are continuously under pressure. The EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have accumulated, and refinery operating rates have declined. The global supply is in an increasing period, and there is pressure for accelerated crude oil inventory accumulation. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [10]. - **Asphalt**: The decline has slowed, and the asphalt futures price is expected to be volatile. The geopolitical premium of crude oil has declined, and the supply of asphalt has increased, with high inventory pressure. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [12]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil futures price has entered a volatile mode. The reduction of geopolitical factors and the increase in supply have affected the price, and it is expected to be volatile [12]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude oil price and is volatile. It faces negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand and substitution, and is expected to maintain a low - valuation operation [14]. - **Methanol**: Slightly boosted by coal, it is in a wide - range volatile state. There is still value in going long at a low level, but the upside space is limited [25][26]. - **Urea**: The spot price is firm, but the futures price is under pressure. The supply - demand pattern is still supply - strong and demand - weak, and it is expected to be volatile [26][27]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: Supported by coal prices, it rebounds at a low level, but the supply - demand pattern is still under pressure. The inventory is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [20][22]. - **PX**: The futures price stops falling and rebounds, but the increase is limited, and the profit is repaired month - on - month. It is expected to fluctuate with costs and macro - sentiment [15]. - **PTA**: New devices are about to be put into production, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is expected to follow the cost and be weak and volatile [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream speculative stocking promotes inventory reduction. The supply - demand is relatively healthy in the short term, and the processing fee is stable. It can consider long - short hedging operations [22]. - **Bottle Chip**: The improvement of the processing fee stimulates the moderate increase of production. The absolute price follows the upstream cost, and the profit has support at the bottom [23][24]. - **Propylene (PL)**: Affected by weak oil prices and macro - factors, it is weak and volatile [31]. - **PP**: Affected by weak oil prices, it continues to decline. The high inventory suppresses the price, and it is expected to be weak and volatile [30]. - **Plastic**: There is slight support near the previous low, and it is weak and volatile. The fundamental support is limited, and the upper - middle reaches have the intention to reduce inventory [29]. - **Styrene**: Affected by commodity sentiment and device news, it shows a "V" - shaped trend. The high inventory is the main pressure, and it is expected to try to widen the profit [19][20]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak expectations, it is volatile. The fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost is moving down, and it is expected to be weak [32]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term supply - demand has improved, but the upward driving force is insufficient [32][33]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., and their changes [34]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, its changes, and the number of warehouse receipts for varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [35]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads between different products such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, etc., and their changes are presented [37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the high - sulfur cracking of Singapore 380cst fluctuated at a high level, the near - month spread weakened, the basis fluctuated at a low level, the EW spread weakened rapidly, the high - sulfur in the ARA region strengthened, and the FU internal - external spread fluctuated between 8 - 10 US dollars. The low - sulfur cracking rebounded slightly but was at a historical low compared to the same period. The spread was weakly sorted, the LU internal - external spread fell to 7 - 9 US dollars, and the MF0.5 basis weakened [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, Singapore's residue oil inventory decreased and was at a high level compared to the same period. The floating storage decreased significantly. ARA's residue oil inventory decreased at a historical low during the same period. EIA's residue oil inventory slightly increased at a low level, and Fujeirah slightly increased its inventory and was at a low level compared to the same period. The Middle East's high - sulfur floating storage decreased significantly this week. Recently, the high - sulfur spot in Singapore has weakened, and the cracking is supported by raw material procurement. The short - term downward space is limited. It is expected that the 380 cracking will maintain an oscillating pattern, and the FU internal - external spread should be viewed within a range. This week, the LU market was still weak. The issuance of the third batch of export quotas met expectations, and the external MF0.5 basis weakened again. In the fourth quarter, the LU internal - external spread can be expanded when the price is low. Pay attention to the quota usage [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Fuel Oil Price Data - **Rotterdam**: From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 3.17, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 decreased by 3.55, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.28, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 0.38. The LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged [1]. - **Singapore**: From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 3.22, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 3.98, and Singapore VLSFO M1 decreased by 1.04. The Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.17 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, the FOB 380cst price increased by 1.62, the FOB VLSFO price decreased by 1.67, the 380 basis increased by 0.25, the high - sulfur internal - external spread increased by 0.8, and the low - sulfur internal - external spread decreased by 0.6 [2]. Domestic FU - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, FU 01 increased by 11, FU 05 increased by 5, FU 09 increased by 8, FU 01 - 05 increased by 6, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 3, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 3 [2]. Domestic LU - From October 10th to 16th, 2025, LU 01 decreased by 1, LU 05 increased by 11, LU 09 increased by 23, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 12, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 12, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 24 [3]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The PDH profit improvement may lead to increased demand for CP cargo purchases. One can focus on narrowing the PDH profit, but be aware of the risk of the low - opening of the end - of - month CP official price [1] Group 2: Market Data and Changes Daily Changes - On Thursday, civil gas prices declined. In East China, it was 4369 (-5), in Shandong 4280 (-70), and in South China 4500 (-30). Ether - post carbon four was 4460 (+0). The lowest delivery location was Shandong, with a basis of 28 (-174), and the November - December spread was 137 (+8). FEI and CP increased to 474 (+8) and 450 (+1) dollars per ton respectively [1] - The PG futures price dropped significantly. The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4384 (+21); in Shandong it was 4450 (-100), and in South China 4570 (-70). The basis was 314 (+188), and the November - December spread was 78 (+0). Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price opened low at 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected. The FEI monthly spread was - 15 dollars (-8.5), and the CP monthly spread was - 8.75 dollars (+0.25). The domestic - foreign price difference PG - CP reached 108 (+3); PG - FEI reached 101 (+13). FEI - CP was 7.5 (-10). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed. AFEI was at a discount of - 18.75, and the South China CIF discount was 52. Freight rates dropped significantly, with the US Gulf - Japan at 126 (-5) and the Middle East - Far East at 63 (-5.5). The FEI - MOPJ spread widened significantly to - 83 (-28) [1] Market Conditions - The inventory pressure is small, the supply is abundant, the chemical demand provides strong support, and the combustion demand is gradually picking up. The PDH operating rate is 70.88% (-1.64pct), with some plants like Haiwei, Lihuayi Weiyuan, and Tianjin Bohua shut down, and Zhongjing is expected to resume next week [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2) Core Viewpoints - DH profit improvement may lead to increased demand for CP cargo purchases. Consider narrowing PDH profit, but be aware of the risk of a low CP official price at the end of the month [1] - The PG market has declined significantly. The cheapest deliverable is East China civil gas. The basis and 11 - 12 month spread have changed. Warehouse receipts were cancelled to zero in September. The October CP official price was the lowest in two years [1] - The inventory pressure is small, supply is abundant, chemical demand provides strong support, and combustion demand is gradually recovering. PDH operating rate has decreased, and some plants have shut down with one expected to resume next week [1] 3) Summary by Related Content Price Changes - **Daily Changes**: On October 15, compared with the previous day, civil gas prices in East China decreased by 9 to 4374, in Shandong by 90 to 4350, and remained unchanged in South China at 4530. Ether - post - carbon four decreased by 20 to 4460 [1] - **Weekly Changes**: PG prices in different regions changed. The basis and 11 - 12 month spread changed. FEI and CP had small fluctuations. PDH profit, inventory, and supply - demand situations also had corresponding changes [1] Market Indicators - **Price and Spread**: The 10 - month CP official price was 495/475, the lowest in two years, 40 - 60 dollars lower than expected. FEI and CP month spreads, and various internal and external spreads (PG - CP, PG - FEI, FEI - CP) changed [1] - **Arbitrage Window**: The US - Asia arbitrage window is closed. AFEI and CP South China arrival discounts are given. Freight rates have dropped significantly [1] - **Profit**: PDH propylene production spot profit changed little, and PP production profit rebounded from a low level [1] - **Inventory and Supply - Demand**: Inventory pressure is small, supply is abundant, chemical demand provides strong support, and combustion demand is gradually recovering. PDH operating rate is 70.88% (-1.64pct) [1]