当下楼市慢慢透出回暖的信号，可网上的氛围却格外反常，不是盼着市场变好的声音，反倒满是喊着房价还会跌的叫嚷。让人纳闷的是，最急眼的既不是攥 着钱等抄底的观望者，也不是手握房产的房东，而是另一群人，逮着任何楼市回暖的消息就使劲唱空，话术翻来覆去就那几套，这背后到底藏着啥心思？今 天就好好唠唠，扒一扒这群极端唱空者的真实心态，也说说普通人该怎么看清当下的楼市现状。 最近不管是房产交易数据，还是各地的楼市政策落地效果，都能看出市场在慢慢止跌回稳，核心城市的核心板块，二手房成交量甚至悄悄涨了不少，这是实 实在在的楼市回暖信号。可在网上，只要有相关新闻，评论区必然被一群人占领，张口就是人口负增长房子没人要，闭口就是房价还得腰斩，谁要是说刚需 可以看看房，立马就被怼得狗血淋头，仿佛说楼市回暖就是犯了错。 反观大家以为会着急的两类人，状态却截然相反。那些被称作 "等等党" 的观望者，手里有首付、收入也稳定，前两年等着房价降是想捡实惠，现在楼市有 了回暖迹象，他们只是更谨慎地去看房、对比房源，琢磨着什么时候下手最合适，心态稳得很，毕竟有真实的购房需求，也有上车的能力，不过是在等一个 最优时机。而房东们，尤其是手握核心区域房产的 ...

对于新房市场，据深圳市房地产信息平台数据，1月新建商品房共成交3977套，环比下降27.0%，同比 下降41.7%；其中住宅成交2550套，环比下降11.5%，同比下降49.9%。深圳市房地产中介协会认为，从 短期市场运行逻辑来看，1月正值房企制定年度销售目标的调整期，阶段性去化压力减轻，楼盘推广节 奏有所放缓，这是导致新房成交量出现阶段性回落的核心原因。 深圳市房地产中介协会认为，1月深圳楼市延续回暖态势，实现开年稳中有进，一二手成交总量高位运 行，二手房成交创近10个月新高，核心区刚需与高端需求双旺；新房虽短期调整，但优质项目去化亮 眼，市场信心持续修复。当前市场回暖依托政策红利持续释放、深圳城市基本面韧性支撑与置业预期全 面改善的三重利好，筑底企稳基础牢固。展望后续，随着春节后置业"小阳春"到来，市场将延续稳中有 进、优质领跑的主基调，二手房成交热度与价格企稳趋势将进一步巩固，新房供给与成交逐步恢复，整 体市场将稳步步入健康回暖、量稳质升的良性发展轨道。 一般来说，1月并非房地产传统旺季。有分析人士指出，今年春节假期时间晚于往年，加之近期楼市政 策利好频出，使得2025年末以来的翘尾行情有所延长。对于全 ...

最近一段时间，大家可能听到了不少北京楼市"回暖"的说法。我们也从不少业内人士以及一线经纪人员口中听到他们的感受，他们也觉得北京楼市近期确 实温度提高了。 今天进入2月了，1月北京的成交数据也出来了，那就让我们来看一下楼市是否回暖了。 01 根据住建委的网签数据，1月北京二手房网签量为15082套。这个成交量是个什么水平？其实如果只是环比上月（也就是去年12月），1月的成交量并没有 上涨，反而是下降了约12%。 但不能这么简单比较，每年的12月，因为年底是集中签约的时期，月网签量通常比较大。 如果要是同比去年1月，那么今年1月的成交量上涨了约21%。从市场一线的体感上看，不少中介机构和人员也都表示，二手房的带看量明显多了，交易量 也多了。 另外还有一个数据，就是最近一段时间北京的二手房挂牌量也回落了。目前北京二手房挂牌量大约14万套，相比之前2024年的高点下降了2万多套。 02 为何1月北京二手房市场会出现这样的变化？ 首先还是政策的影响。去年12月24日北京市出台楼市新政，优化非京籍购房社保、纳税年限，商贷利率不再区分首套、二套房，公积金二套房贷首付下调 等。而后在1月，财政部、税务总局、住房城乡建设部又出 ...

截至发稿，融创中国(01918.HK)、龙光集团(03380.HK)、世茂集团(00813.HK)均涨超20%，此外，碧桂园(02007.HK)等一批房企股价涨幅也均达两位数。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌额 | 涨跌幅, | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01918 | 融创中国 | 1.310 | +0.280 | +27.18% | 212.13亿 | | 03380 | 龙光集团 | 1.640 | +0.300 | +22.39% | 93.241亿 | | 00813 | 世茂集团 | 0.250 | +0.043 | +20.77% | 22.932亿 | | 00884 | 旭辉控股集团 | 0.101 | +0.017 | +20.24% | 16.89亿 | | 02007 | 碧桂园 | 0.325 | +0.050 | +18.18% | 125.25亿 | | 03301 | 融信中国 | 0.152 | +0.023 | +17.83% | 2.5588亿 | | 03383 | 雅居乐集团 | 0.305 | +0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has shown signs of recovery at the beginning of 2026, breaking the seasonal lull with increasing transaction volumes and stabilizing prices for quality properties, driven by favorable policies and gradually restored market confidence [1][2][31]. Group 1: Market Performance - The transaction volume of second-hand homes in major cities has been rising, with Beijing averaging over 500 transactions per day [1][4]. - Shanghai has seen a continuous decline in inventory for nine months, with a 20% reduction in stock compared to the previous year [22]. - Shenzhen's market is characterized by a structural recovery, where quality properties are appreciating while ordinary properties remain stable [26][30]. Group 2: Policy Impact - Beijing's recovery is largely attributed to new policies implemented in December 2025, which lowered the barriers to home buying [12][14]. - Ongoing favorable policies, such as tax rebates for housing purchases and reduced down payment requirements, are further stimulating demand [33]. - The overall economic improvement and better employment outlook are providing a solid foundation for the release of pent-up housing demand [35]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The recovery in the real estate market is not uniform; different cities exhibit varying recovery paces and characteristics [10][18]. - In Beijing, quality properties are in high demand, with a significant reduction in available listings [16]. - In Shanghai, both buyers and sellers are regaining confidence, leading to a more balanced supply-demand dynamic [24]. Group 4: Buyer Considerations - The current market conditions are suitable for genuine buyers with stable financial situations, while speculative buyers and those with insufficient economic strength should refrain from impulsive purchases [41][43]. - The market is expected to maintain a steady recovery without drastic price increases, making it crucial for buyers to assess their financial readiness before entering the market [43][44].

本报记者 陈 潇 去年12月24日，北京市住房城乡建设委等4部门发布《关于进一步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通 知》（以下简称《通知》），涉及限购政策调整、信贷优化等方面。 该经纪人介绍，目前几乎每天都在带客户看房，带看频次明显上升。从成交结构来看，当前二手房市场 仍以刚需为主，成交总价集中在200万元至500万元区间。"改善型客户大多还是更倾向于新房，其产品 和配套更具吸引力。"该经纪人表示。 整体来看，新政实施一个月以来，成交量正稳步上升。中原地产数据显示，《通知》发布以来，新房日 均网签量环比增长44.6%，五环外改善型新盘表现较为亮眼；二手房方面，新政后中介门店日均带看量 较平时增长20%以上，二手房日均成交超过500套。 从价格方面来看，新房价格已率先企稳，五环外改善型新房价格环比上涨2.55%，全市新房价格环比降 幅收窄至0.4%，核心区高端盘价格保持坚挺；二手房价格跌幅也有所收窄，核心区优质学区房、小户 型房源价格趋稳，部分业主出现"惜售"心理。 新政落地一个月以来，北京楼市出现了哪些变化？ 中原地产首席分析师张大伟在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，近一个月来，二手房挂牌量减少超过 8000套， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent policy adjustments in Beijing's real estate market have led to increased market activity, improved transaction volumes, and stabilized prices, significantly boosting market confidence [2][3]. Group 1: Market Activity - Since the implementation of the new policy, the Beijing real estate market has shown signs of increased activity, with a notable rise in both new and second-hand property transactions [2]. - In a new development in the southern part of Beijing, the sales staff reported a significant increase in visitor numbers and inquiries, with an overall sales rate exceeding 60% since the project's launch [2]. - The second-hand housing market has also experienced a revival, with a real estate agent noting a substantial increase in transaction speed and frequency of property viewings [2]. Group 2: Transaction Data - According to data from Zhongyuan Real Estate, the average daily signing of new homes has increased by 44.6% since the policy announcement, while the average daily transactions of second-hand homes have exceeded 500 units [3]. - The price of new homes has stabilized, with a 2.55% increase in prices for improved new homes outside the Fifth Ring Road, and a reduction in the price decline to 0.4% citywide [3]. - The number of second-hand homes listed has decreased by over 8,000 units, indicating a tightening supply and a shift in market dynamics [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that the Beijing real estate market is likely to continue its recovery trend, with increasing transaction speeds expected as demand gradually releases, although market differentiation will remain a key theme [3]. - Projects with competitive locations and product offerings are anticipated to benefit first from the upcoming peak season in the real estate market [3].

上海二手房成交同样延续热度。安居客上海数据显示，截至1月19日，1月份上海二手房成交突破13000 套，预计整月成交将再次突破2.2万套，连续三个月2.2万套以上的成交，二手房的情绪正在发生明显变 化。 北京方面，多位北京房产中介向记者表示，开年以来，二手房成交活跃度持续回升。以链家为例，中介 向记者展示的数据显示，近三周（12月29日—1月4日为第一周）二手房成交量呈连续抬升态势，周度成 交保持在相对高位，挂牌量也在持续下降。 整体来看，二手房修复仍快于新房。一方面，价格经过前期充分调整，成交条件更加成熟；另一方面， 房东预期趋稳，二手市场回暖态势在多个城市均有所体现。 中原地产研究院统计数据显示，重点15城二手住宅周度成交量环比持续上升，其中一线城市表现更为亮 眼，中原报价指数连续5周回升，北京较放宽限购新政前中原报价指数累计上升4个百分点。 进入2026年，楼市在多重积极信号的叠加下呈现回暖态势。其中，一线城市楼市率先升温，二手房成交 活跃度明显提升，新房市场边际改善，市场情绪较2025年末出现实质性修复。 具体来看，以深圳为代表，多家机构数据显示，2026年1月以来，深圳二手房市场看房量、签约量双双 ...

Core Insights - The Hangzhou real estate market shows signs of recovery with a significant increase in second-hand housing transactions in December 2025, indicating a revitalized market activity [1][2] - The total transaction volume for second-hand homes in Hangzhou for the entire year of 2025 reached 88,456 units, with over 53% of transactions being for properties priced below 2 million RMB, highlighting the strong demand from first-time buyers and those seeking initial upgrades [1] - The average transaction price for newly built residential properties in Hangzhou increased by 7.7% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting market recognition of high-quality new supply [1] Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market in Hangzhou experienced a month-on-month increase of 4.6% in December 2025, marking a continuous recovery trend [1] - The adjustment of purchasing thresholds has effectively released genuine housing demand, providing stable and sustainable momentum for the market [1] - The new housing market and the second-hand market are developing in a complementary manner, creating a multi-tiered and full-cycle housing supply system [1] Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hangzhou real estate market has completed a phase of bottoming out in 2025, with the year-end increase in transaction volume supported by strong demand from first-time buyers [2] - The implementation of policies supporting reasonable housing consumption is expected to further improve market expectations in the new year [2]

英镑/美元 英镑昨日震荡盘整，日线小幅收涨，现汇价交投于1.3500附近。除空头回补对汇价构成了一定的支撑 外，美元指数在疲软经济数据和美联储降息预期挥之不去的打压下走软对英镑构成了一定的支撑。此 外，对英国央行降息接近尾声的预期也对汇价构成了一定的支撑。今日关注1.3600附近的压力情况，下 方支撑在1.3400附近。 责任编辑：陈平 12月30日，根据全美房地产经纪人协会（NAR）周一公布的数据，11月美国成屋待完成销售（Pending Home Sales）指数环比上升3.3%至79.2，创下2023年2月以来新高，升幅明显高于经济学家普遍预期。 该指数衡量的是已签署购房合同但尚未完成交割的房屋数量。媒体对经济学家的调查显示，本次涨幅仅 低于一项预测，表明市场回暖具有一定广泛性。 NAR首席经济学家Lawrence Yun在声明中表示，"购房 者动能正在增强"，主要得益于负担能力改善以及可选择房源较去年增多。数据显示，二手房签约量已 连续四个月上升，这一连涨周期与新冠疫情期间楼市火热阶段的表现相当。 另外，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普暗示，他已有非常偏好的下一任美联储主席人选，但并不急于宣布。同 时特朗普还表 ...